Search found 11448 matches

by letsgobobby
Tue Sep 25, 2018 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Someone stole my check from the mail, changed the amount, and deposited it
Replies: 27
Views: 2332

Re: Someone stole my check from the mail, changed the amount, and deposited it

I still have to write a number of checks, more than you all apparently. It's at least 1-2 per month. Clark Howard has discussed this fishing before. I need to get a gel pen.
by letsgobobby
Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help choosing Emerging Market Funds/ETFs
Replies: 8
Views: 856

Re: Help choosing Emerging Market Funds/ETFs

What is the best (cheapest, deepest, most liquid, most tax efficient) EM ETF available? This is for a taxable account.
by letsgobobby
Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 49
Views: 2682

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

To continue the discussion a bit, Siamond, you pointed out above that the choice of specific thresholds is basically data mining. I would suggest the same is true for CAPE10 itself [...] Oh yes, that is true. Still, this doesn't bother me as much as the thresholds. Because I ran the numbers with CA...
by letsgobobby
Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 49
Views: 2682

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

I could have said, in the last year or two, let's draw down my US stock exposure by ten percent. In other words, followed my model religiously. That might have made you happier. But this is a weakness of the model and taking a page from DFA's smarter indexing, I try to avoid making moves on theshold...
by letsgobobby
Mon Sep 24, 2018 11:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where are the hybrid or fully electric two seater commuting vehicles?
Replies: 41
Views: 1418

Re: Where are the hybrid or fully electric two seater commuting vehicles?

Why is the smallest available electric car a four or five seater when 90% of commuted miles are driven alone? Perhaps what you are asking about is a niche market? Even tho the masses are solo commuters, they still want the flexibility to be able to take the whole family to the park, beach, mountain...
by letsgobobby
Mon Sep 24, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where are the hybrid or fully electric two seater commuting vehicles?
Replies: 41
Views: 1418

Re: Where are the hybrid or fully electric two seater commuting vehicles?

Why is the smallest available electric car a four or five seater when 90% of commuted miles are driven alone? Because people won't buy a tiny car. Ford is giving up on sedans in general, because people want to purchase giant machines. Even small, not tiny, cars fail to sell. Toyota Echo, Chevy Aveo...
by letsgobobby
Mon Sep 24, 2018 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 49
Views: 2682

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

when did very low CAPEs, say under ten, not lead to very good return 10-15 years out? Russia, IIRC. Which is why I made clear I only use CAPE for large cap US stocks. I don't consider small cap or international data reliable enough. 30 is an arbitrary number, but CAPE has been well above 'Shiller's...
by letsgobobby
Mon Sep 24, 2018 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 49
Views: 2682

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

In 1996, Shiller wrote a paper predicting a 0% total return for the next ten years: http://www.econ.yale.edu//~shiller/data/peratio.html In fact, the S&P 500 returned about 6.5% real per year on average, even with the 2000 crash. Which I assume is why he isn't nearly as specific with his prediction...
by letsgobobby
Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 49
Views: 2682

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

Siamond, did you read my comments about adjusting CAPE per Swedroe's comments re: GAAP changes? I'm no corporate accountant but I knock 15% off current measures to make an apples to apples comparison to historical values. So call it 28. I do think the second adjustment is more of a judgment call. M...
by letsgobobby
Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where are the hybrid or fully electric two seater commuting vehicles?
Replies: 41
Views: 1418

Where are the hybrid or fully electric two seater commuting vehicles?

For instance, a rollcage with a shell on top of a rolling battery, and just one front seat and a second seat either rear facing, or front facing but offset for a narrower stance, perhaps on only three wheels? Small enough and light enough to have 150 mile range with a relatively smaller and thus les...
by letsgobobby
Mon Sep 24, 2018 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 49
Views: 2682

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

This approach would be way too complicated for me, and I am skeptical that it would produce significantly better outcomes than a simple rebalancing policy to a fixed asset allocation, especially because the added complexity increases the possibility of making a mistake while carrying it all out. I ...
by letsgobobby
Mon Sep 24, 2018 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 49
Views: 2682

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

The problem with that is that the last 27 years of U.S. stock history fly in the face of it (since 1992, U.S. stocks crossed the historic CAPE average and essentially never looked back). PE10 (i.e. CAPE) has been higher than its historic average over virtually the entire period, yet real returns ov...
by letsgobobby
Mon Sep 24, 2018 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'
Replies: 48
Views: 4243

Re: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'

- The CAPE ratio might be permanently higher due to indexing lowering costs for investors (an interesting argument that I had not heard of before) Heaven knows I'm all in favor of indexing but that sure sounds like bullpuckey to me. In 2017, according to ICI, only 13% of U.S. stocks were held in in...
by letsgobobby
Mon Sep 24, 2018 12:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 49
Views: 2682

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

Why CAPE 10? Why not CAPE 5. Or CAPE 15? Why 60\40? Etc. They seem like arbitrary choices. But if your rules keep you from doing something stupid during a crash or a bubble, then it's probably a good plan. In that light, nearly every decision is arbitrary. I guess we all choose our boundaries. CAPE...
by letsgobobby
Sun Sep 23, 2018 11:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Seattle and (Victoria OR Vancouver) next week.
Replies: 22
Views: 1064

Re: Seattle and (Victoria OR Vancouver) next week.

right now we are having a true Indian summer. dry and sunny, highs late this week in the upper 70s in Seattle. Great time of year to visit.
by letsgobobby
Sun Sep 23, 2018 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 49
Views: 2682

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

Siamond, did you read my comments about adjusting CAPE per Swedroe's comments re: GAAP changes? I'm no corporate accountant but I knock 15% off current measures to make an apples to apples comparison to historical values. So call it 28. I do think the second adjustment is more of a judgment call. Ma...
by letsgobobby
Sun Sep 23, 2018 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 49
Views: 2682

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

Of course using any arbitrary period is a bad idea. I rebalance only based on valuation, never year end or decade end. Well, same thing, this makes the AA adjustment become way too frequent, I believe, and defeats the long-term nature of CAPE's predictive value. Although to be fair, I never ran a b...
by letsgobobby
Sun Sep 23, 2018 8:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Seattle and (Victoria OR Vancouver) next week.
Replies: 22
Views: 1064

Re: Seattle and (Victoria OR Vancouver) next week.

Easy Rainier hikes from Seattle are best out of the Northeast entrance. Go to sunrise and hike up to frozen lake and take your pick from there.
by letsgobobby
Sun Sep 23, 2018 7:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Seattle and (Victoria OR Vancouver) next week.
Replies: 22
Views: 1064

Re: Seattle and (Victoria OR Vancouver) next week.

We are planning 10-12 days in the Pacific NW. Our first stop will be 3-4 days in Seattle. We plan to go to Pike Market, Underground Seattle, tour of the city, and whale watching (if good sightings) and then we will be checking out other points of interest. Then 2-3 days in either Victoria or Vancou...
by letsgobobby
Sun Sep 23, 2018 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 49
Views: 2682

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

Of course using any arbitrary period is a bad idea. I rebalance only based on valuation, never year end or decade end. This strategy can't work for mutual funds or hedge funds, who have shareholders and investors to answer to. But I have a governing board of just one. And I am very patient. I watche...
by letsgobobby
Sun Sep 23, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 49
Views: 2682

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

At work but short reply, I have not backtested but believe valuations at the extremes are highly predictive of five to fifteen years returns. Of course it is a form of market timing. I can flex us/international based on relative valuations (since late 2013 I have been 60% international) but this lea...
by letsgobobby
Sun Sep 23, 2018 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 49
Views: 2682

My CAPE10 based IPS

Here it is, for those who have asked (in summary form, omitting elements of the IPS which are specific to my situation or otherwise personal): * 60/40 stocks/bonds * Bonds 50/50 total bond/stable value until 10 year treasury > 6% * Stocks 50/50 US/international, can go up 75% international based on ...
by letsgobobby
Sat Sep 22, 2018 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 58
Views: 3773

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

It's absurd to interpet a graph without a scale. I'm surprised you would suggest we try. But I went to the multpl website and found that in 2000, CAPE was 44, or 300% of it's long term average. According to your graph, forward PE was 26, or maybe 160% of mean (using the line indicated on your graph)...
by letsgobobby
Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 58
Views: 3773

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

For those who are saying that CAPE is somehow reasonable while putting down forward PE, let's take a look at both since 1990. Here's a graph of CAPE from Shiller's site beginning at 1990. It's a little fuzzy because I just blew up the one from the site. It's good enough for this purpose. https://i....
by letsgobobby
Sat Sep 22, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estate Planning Attorney Says Putting tIRA in a Revocable Trust is "Complicated" - True?
Replies: 45
Views: 3049

Re: Estate Planning Attorney Says Putting tIRA in a Revocable Trust is "Complicated" - True?

Why can't the IRA be left to trust, with the trust distributing income annually or more at trustee discretion, and daughter being beneficiary of trust and thus eligible for the stretch; upon daughter's death, contingent beneficiaries of trust are charities, which can then distribute balance of IRA i...
by letsgobobby
Sat Sep 22, 2018 12:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 58
Views: 3773

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

Vanguard said it explained 40%; "Explained" is always an unfortunate verb to use when one simply does a correlation. Nothing has really been explained by doing that--they've just found a variable that worth further exploration. For me, CAPE has theoretical issues--why would I consider earnings from...
by letsgobobby
Sat Sep 22, 2018 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 58
Views: 3773

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

Vanguard said it explained 40%; "Explained" is always an unfortunate verb to use when one simply does a correlation. Nothing has really been explained by doing that--they've just found a variable that worth further exploration. For me, CAPE has theoretical issues--why would I consider earnings from...
by letsgobobby
Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 58
Views: 3773

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

That’s what I’m asking you: what percent of future returns do YOU think CAPE predicts? You say it’s largely an artifact, I disagree, and my IPS is built around responding to extreme CAPE values. In descriptive terms, for instance, I propose that top decile CAPEs (adjusted for changes in GAAP), predi...
by letsgobobby
Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 58
Views: 3773

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

Higher may be the new normal, but again, that doesn't explain real returns over the last 27 years. I truly believe that CAPE 10 is little more than statistical artifact that Shiller 'discovered' that has something to do with future stock returns but not nearly as much as it appeared to according to...
by letsgobobby
Fri Sep 21, 2018 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 58
Views: 3773

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

Also, CAPE has not been above its long term average since 1992. For about one month in March 2009, it was below its long term average. 8-) yeah 1 month out of 312... Seriously man, come on. I’m dead serious. It was a great buying opportunity. The intra-month low was around 12, 25% below its long te...
by letsgobobby
Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 58
Views: 3773

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

As for forward earnings, I'll trust them when someone can tell me the temperature next week Friday at noon with any degree of certainty. Do you really believe the last 10 years of next week Friday at noon temperatures will tell you exactly about next week Friday at noon temperatures? In fact isn't ...
by letsgobobby
Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 58
Views: 3773

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

Finally, it is not correct that the 2008 earnings will suddenly drop off and be replaced with 2018 earnings. The multpl web site actually calculates Shiller PE daily and provides tabular data monthly. I believe Shiller's website used to calculate CAPE monthly if not daily but I haven't checked it i...
by letsgobobby
Fri Sep 21, 2018 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 58
Views: 3773

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

The market is forward looking but that doesn't mean it's accurately forward looking. Forward PE is highly susceptible to the "animal spirits" Bogle talks about; it's more a reflection of psychology (euphoria vs nihilism) than any facts on the ground. This is why past earnings are a better measure of...
by letsgobobby
Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 58
Views: 3773

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

I don't know why you'd only look at the last twenty years. Oh, maybe it's because if you looked at a longer period of time, we'd find your assertion that stocks are about average to be complete phooey. Today's prices only look average if you ignore the prior 80 years of market history. In fact compa...
by letsgobobby
Thu Sep 20, 2018 6:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I bother meeting with a Chase Private Client Rep
Replies: 44
Views: 3409

Re: Should I bother meeting with a Chase Private Client Rep

By the way, yes I’m aware the long game for them here is get him in our ecosystem and then one day we can make some money off him, but as long as I just stick with self directed vanguard etfs, I don’t see the downside. If you use the traditional platform and not the new you invest, you can call the...
by letsgobobby
Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inherited IRA or convert to non-IRA cash
Replies: 6
Views: 382

Re: Inherited IRA or convert to non-IRA cash

Hello Bogleheads, I would like to know if an executor can sell IRA assets and convert it to non-IRA cash, in effect taking IRA distributions post-death. Then the executor would distribute to the heirs the cash and avoid the tax consequences of inherited IRAs. The decedent's has medical bills which,...
by letsgobobby
Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I bother meeting with a Chase Private Client Rep
Replies: 44
Views: 3409

Re: Should I bother meeting with a Chase Private Client Rep

Most of the posts here are wrong. I'm very happy with CPC. it costs me nothing as I keep the required amount invested in Vanguard admiral shares. I like the no fees for anything and when I needed a certifying officer signature for a large amount, my credit unions couldn't handle it, but CPC could. F...
by letsgobobby
Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity allocation for Flagship clients?
Replies: 47
Views: 3809

Re: Equity allocation for Flagship clients?

What does flagship status have to do with equity allocation? Is David flagship? It seems your need, ability, and desire to take risk are more relevant than your arbitrary status with one company.
by letsgobobby
Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Beneficiary unallowed in joint taxable -move to single acct?
Replies: 10
Views: 738

Re: Beneficiary unallowed in joint taxable -move to single acct?

Hello everyone, After the birth of my child, I am trying to make sure all my retirement/non retirement accounts have a beneficiary (my child) listed. I don't have a will/trust yet - I'm in the process of it. I have around $37K in a joint taxable account with my wife through Vanguard. I don’t feel s...
by letsgobobby
Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Thoughts on Car Expenditures
Replies: 19
Views: 742

Re: Thoughts on Car Expenditures

It seems that the average sales price for a car in US is around 30k. With average household income of 60k, let's make an aggressive simplifying assumption (most households have more than one car) that there is only one producer and one car per household. That's 50% of gross annual income spent on a...
by letsgobobby
Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Planning to Contact Vanguard
Replies: 29
Views: 1786

Re: Planning to Contact Vanguard

To be clear, I'm looking for two plans. One is between now and retirement in 2 to 3 years(which isn't that important right now since it's only 2 to 3 years out) and the other is post-retirement (35+ years). But I'm not 100% sure that the retirement date is exactly where I think it is, hence the nee...
by letsgobobby
Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?
Replies: 111
Views: 7413

Re: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?

We're less interested in squeezing every dollar out of the SSA, and more interested in using the longevity insurance feature of the program. Thus it makes sense for me as the much higher earner to delay my benefit as long as I am in average or better health, and for my spouse to take hers somewhere ...
by letsgobobby
Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If you're FI, or close to FI, are still fighting to climb the Corp. Ladder?
Replies: 118
Views: 11124

Re: If you're FI, or close to FI, are still fighting to climb the Corp. Ladder?

I reached my ultimate goal in my career at age 48. It was what I always wanted and worked for. After 3-5 years of working in this position I was FI by quite a wide margin. Did my work ethic and drive diminish? Disappointingly it did. I regret this even now after 12 years of retirement. Wish I could...
by letsgobobby
Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Picking a Charity
Replies: 69
Views: 2730

Re: Picking a Charity

With all respect to the OP, how does a thoughtful, introspective, considered, mindful adult reach this point in his life without ever having found a single charitable cause that touches his soul?
by letsgobobby
Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If you're FI, or close to FI, are still fighting to climb the Corp. Ladder?
Replies: 118
Views: 11124

Re: If you're FI, or close to FI, are still fighting to climb the Corp. Ladder?

The difficulty is that taking the next step careerwise after one reaches FI will almost occur in midlife. This is usually when we are at our busiest because of family/kid commitments, and also when our own mortality starts peaking at us from over the horizon. This makes the prospect of trading life ...
by letsgobobby
Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If you're FI, or close to FI, are still fighting to climb the Corp. Ladder?
Replies: 118
Views: 11124

Re: If you're FI, or close to FI, are still fighting to climb the Corp. Ladder?

I reached my ultimate goal in my career at age 48. It was what I always wanted and worked for. After 3-5 years of working in this position I was FI by quite a wide margin. Did my work ethic and drive diminish? Disappointingly it did. I regret this even now after 12 years of retirement. Wish I could...
by letsgobobby
Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hypothetical Question - Market Timing
Replies: 43
Views: 2418

Re: Hypothetical Question - Market Timing

DeadPoets wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:00 am
This is strictly a hypothetical situation for educational purposes only.
...
FWIW, I do think the market is going to take a pretty big hit in the next year or 2. That's why I'm hesitant to get in now.
Not actually hypothetical then, is it.
by letsgobobby
Sun Sep 09, 2018 6:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much do bogleheads save in 529?
Replies: 79
Views: 4509

Re: How much do bogleheads save in 529?

Dear Bogleheads, I was listening to Ric Edelman recently and he was predicting that cost of college education might become free in the next 18 years. Similar to what NYU has done in making medical education free, he felt that many institutions with large endowments such and Harvard and Yale will fo...