Search found 116 matches

by cos
Wed Jun 03, 2020 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5059
Views: 439554

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

What is an etf tracker that differentiates? ETFdb has a nice list of 3x leveraged ETFs: https://etfdb.com/themes/leveraged-3x-etfs/ If you want to check whether a given fund is structured as an ETF or an ETN, just click on the name and look under the "Structure" heading. You'll find that most lever...
by cos
Tue Jun 02, 2020 4:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does every one here only have 3 funds in their portfolios?
Replies: 128
Views: 7230

Re: Does every one here only have 3 funds in their portfolios?

I have only two funds in my portfolio! In general, the simpler things are, the better they are. You made the right choice.
by cos
Sun May 31, 2020 1:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Single Favorite Mutual Fund
Replies: 96
Views: 9027

Re: Single Favorite Mutual Fund

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 11:54 am
PSLDX will make me rich.

It's 50% of my AA.
What about PSLDX makes you prefer it over the Adventure in this case?
by cos
Thu May 28, 2020 12:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying Voo - Robinhood or Vanguard?
Replies: 41
Views: 1629

Re: Buying Voo - Robinhood or Vanguard?

I'm about to put money into VOO on a regular basis (DCA, taxable account). Is there any advantage/disadvantage to buy VOO via Robinhood App or should I buy it directly at the source (Vanguard)? Robinhood does now fractional shares so that might be something which is cool since I could just buy in d...
by cos
Thu May 28, 2020 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are 10-20 year treasuries a poor investment now?
Replies: 26
Views: 1676

Re: Why are 10-20 year treasuries a poor investment now?

Now of course one could argue, well interest rates will not go lower than what the are. In which case, you are taking 1.18% yearly gain versus potential 19% principle loss. But is this 100% correct? Aren't increased interest rates good for bonds in the long term? With higher interest rates, I get h...
by cos
Thu May 28, 2020 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman-Sachs Compares Bitcoin to the Tulip Bubble
Replies: 58
Views: 3666

Re: Goldman-Sachs Compares Bitcoin to the Tulip Bubble

Wow. https://imgur.com/30rHQwH.png Oh, wow, what a slide. Personally, I think defining the role of cryptocurrencies in investing is rather simple. Do you consider foreign currencies an asset class? People speculate on those all the time, and some of them have been quite volatile. If the answer is n...
by cos
Wed May 27, 2020 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5059
Views: 439554

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Has anyone tried this with backtesting long term TIPS for the stagflation period? I ran out of my trial period but as TIPS are a great inflation hedge and long term tips seem to do better than short term for returns would a fund like LTPZ be worth a 5-10% substitution for TMF? Without leverage, the...
by cos
Wed May 27, 2020 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why did you change your investing approach?
Replies: 36
Views: 1953

Re: Why did you change your investing approach?

Wanderingwheelz wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 5:58 am
Somebody took a wrong turn somewhere on the internet.
All of my decisions have been primarily driven by information I found here on Bogleheads. If this place is wrong, I don't want to be right!

See: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=288192
by cos
Tue May 26, 2020 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the stock market up? [thread multi-merge]
Replies: 315
Views: 16562

Re: 40m Unemployment Claims - I Don’t Understand Why Markets Seem To Not Care

In addition to the threads linked by David Jay, the following video by Ben Felix has the answers to all your questions: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ECqDaPjjV0 It is easy for investors to see economic news, like unemployment or GDP data, and get worried or excited about the impact that it will h...
by cos
Tue May 26, 2020 7:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can I do the calculations?
Replies: 11
Views: 567

Re: How can I do the calculations?

I can provide more details about each of the mutual funds, etc. Any suggestions on how I can make this decision? Please do. Generally, active mutual funds are a bad idea, especially those charging an expense ratio of 1% or more. However, it's hard to give you good advice without knowing more about ...
by cos
Tue May 26, 2020 6:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I have no risk tolerance: where am I supposed to keep my money?
Replies: 73
Views: 6366

Re: I have no risk tolerance: where am I supposed to keep my money?

With all due respect, OP, you're dangerously close to screwing yourself over. I recommend handing the keys over to someone else by going all-in on a target-date retirement fund. You said you're holding VTSAX so I'm going to assume you're already with Vanguard. Lucky for you, they've got some great ...
by cos
Tue May 26, 2020 5:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I have no risk tolerance: where am I supposed to keep my money?
Replies: 73
Views: 6366

Re: I have no risk tolerance: where am I supposed to keep my money?

With all due respect, OP, you're dangerously close to screwing yourself over. I recommend handing the keys over to someone else by going all-in on a target-date retirement fund. You said you're holding VTSAX so I'm going to assume you're already with Vanguard. Lucky for you, they've got some great o...
by cos
Tue May 26, 2020 5:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fractional Investing
Replies: 22
Views: 1465

Re: Fractional Investing

I started out with the big robos, Betterment and Wealthfront, before properly discovering and fully realizing the ways of the Bogleheads. The former offered fractional investing with a poor choice of funds while the latter only allowed whole-share investing with a slightly better choice of funds. Bo...
by cos
Sun May 24, 2020 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimum Safe ETF Size?
Replies: 8
Views: 731

Re: Minimum Safe ETF Size?

I had a small amount in IEIS (IShares enhanced small cap internation) when it closed back in 2016. I want to say it had over 50M in assets. iShares has a tendency to close funds. Yeah, in my experience, you're better off investigating the history of issuers than you are just betting on the size of ...
by cos
Sun May 24, 2020 7:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does software play a role in choosing TV
Replies: 28
Views: 1326

Re: Does software play a role in choosing TV

I never really understood the appeal of "smart" TVs. It's just a TV with a terrible computer built into it. The software isn't supported for very long and tends to be fairly locked down so you can't even maintain it yourself. They degrade far too quickly for my tastes, to the point where I typically...
by cos
Sun May 24, 2020 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Taleb's risk mitigation strategy be implemented by retail investors (if so how)?
Replies: 27
Views: 2016

Re: Can Taleb's risk mitigation strategy be implemented by retail investors (if so how)?

I believe allocating a portion of one's portfolio toward the Amplify BlackSwan Growth & Treasury Core ETF (SWAN) is a very easy and fairly efficient way to implement Taleb's risk mitigation strategy. There's already a thread on it: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=263557
by cos
Sun May 24, 2020 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why did you change your investing approach?
Replies: 36
Views: 1953

Re: Why did you change your investing approach?

I went from 100% equities / 0% bonds to 165% equities / 135% bonds because I'm only 22 and the former didn't offer enough excitement. After the recent crash, I'm considering leveraging up even more or at least tilting further towards equities. I live very frugally anyway, and I apparently tolerate d...
by cos
Sun May 24, 2020 12:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: $250 off new iPhone SE via trade-in arbitrage
Replies: 16
Views: 1714

Re: $250 off new iPhone SE via trade-in arbitrage

Is the new iPhone SE unlocked? How easily can I resell it for a profit?
by cos
Fri May 22, 2020 11:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for a Roth IRA with rebalancing. (Hegdefundie adventure)
Replies: 19
Views: 1001

Re: Who do you use for your Roth IRA?

I'm looking for a 0 fee self guided Roth IRA to use for Hedgefundies adventure, something with rebalancing features would be nice. Only one I've found so far that has what I like features wise is M1 Finance except I don't like the way they fill orders. Fidelity in my experience has great order fill...
by cos
Fri May 22, 2020 9:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I emulate a riskier AA using leverage?
Replies: 15
Views: 1213

Re: Can I emulate a riskier AA using leverage?

I've been following with some interest (and incomplete understanding) the thread HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure over on the other subforum, and it made me wonder -- is there some canonical way to use leverage in some part of the equity side of my portfolio in order to ratchet up my risk exposure...
by cos
Wed May 20, 2020 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Overall Online Brokerage Account
Replies: 31
Views: 2047

Re: Best Overall Online Brokerage Account

Quest2Invest wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 7:37 pm
I'm probably going to stay with Merill Edge but I'm also considering opening up a new brokerage account for a better user experience to analyze and research stocks. Any recommendations or suggestions?
M1 Finance might be worth a look.
by cos
Wed May 20, 2020 8:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Suggested Portfolio from Vanguard PAS
Replies: 16
Views: 940

Re: Suggested Portfolio from Vanguard PAS

60% VTSAX (USA small-mid-large cap) 40% VGTSX (International) ... What are your thoughts? Thanks! If anything, I'd recommend a higher international allocation that better reflects actual global market capitalization. Anything less and you're actively implying that there is some fundamental reason f...
by cos
Thu May 14, 2020 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5059
Views: 439554

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

The research presented here provides a pretty strong argument against triply leveraging anything other than the S&P 500 using data from 1950 to 2009: http://ddnum.com/articles/leveragedETFs.php OK, but another way of looking at it is this. $10k from equities into 50% UPRO 50% TMF gives you very dif...
by cos
Thu May 14, 2020 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5059
Views: 439554

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Is there a reason URTY or another small/mid cap 3x ETF isn't used instead of UPRO or in conjunction with UPRO for this strategy? Why shouldn't I replace UPRO with a mix of UPRO/UMDD/URTY and get leveraged exposure to ~95% of the entire US market? I started the strategy in late March at 50/50 TMF/UP...
by cos
Wed May 13, 2020 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5059
Views: 439554

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

This strategy seems to benefit quite a bit from the addition of mid-cap and small-cap stocks. ProShares makes this possible with UMDD (3x Leveraged S&P 400 Mid-Cap ETF) and URTY (3x Leveraged Russell 2000 Small-Cap ETF). Comparison to Original Adventure: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-...
by cos
Tue May 12, 2020 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5059
Views: 439554

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Just thought I'd share an excellent summary of this strategy and its potential perils that I found posted on Hacker News by one edwardkh : I'm also running 55 UPRO/45 TMF in my Roth IRA, but I'd like to add a disclaimer here to note that leveraged risk parity strategies generally get their bonus fro...
by cos
Sat May 09, 2020 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5059
Views: 439554

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Did you read the first post of the original thread? TMF isn't there for gains, it's there for insurance. If UPRO crashes, we expect it to be offset by an increase in TMF. Long-term, however, this portfolio is largely driven by gains in UPRO. Speaking for myself, I do expect yields to go negative an...
by cos
Sat May 09, 2020 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5059
Views: 439554

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Does TMF still make sense with yields so low? I get that it would leverage up the existing yield less the costs, but how much capital gains can you expect going forward? It feels like there is more potential downside here than upside unless you think long term treasuries can go negative. Did you re...
by cos
Sat May 09, 2020 5:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to block all websites on Android tablet except for those in a whitelist
Replies: 4
Views: 312

Re: How to block all websites on Android tablet except for those in a whitelist

Firefox Preview allows installing uBlock Origin, through which you can block everything except a whitelist (it also blocks ads, trackers, and malware by default). To install it: Open Firefox Preview > Tap the Menu Icon (three-dot icon in lower right corner) > Tap Settings > Tap Add-ons > Tap uBlock...
by cos
Fri May 08, 2020 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will "work from home" destroy the commercial real estate market?
Replies: 169
Views: 13175

Re: Will work from home destroy the commercial real estate market?

Considering there exist use cases for commercial real estate beyond office work, I'd imagine that a cultural shift toward working from home wouldn't destroy the commercial real estate market but rather just slow it down.
by cos
Fri May 08, 2020 8:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Gripes with VT (Vanguard Total-World ETF, ER .08)?
Replies: 23
Views: 1642

Re: Gripes with VT (Vanguard Total-World ETF, ER .08)?

I was all-in on VT before factors and leverage swept me off my feet. It's hard to go wrong owning the world, and VT is a great way to do that. If you want exposure to a few thousand additional companies and a lower overall expense ratio, you could split VT into VTI and VXUS, but then you'd have to r...
by cos
Fri May 08, 2020 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn't everybody replace SP500 with NTSX?
Replies: 70
Views: 6891

Re: Why doesn't everybody replace SP500 with NTSX?

Dominic wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 1:35 pm
1) b) I don't think Treasury futures have any yield (unless it's somehow built-in with pricing).
Indeed, yields are directly built into the pricing of futures.
by cos
Fri May 08, 2020 1:16 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Thank you, moderators!
Replies: 46
Views: 2689

Re: Thank you, moderators!

Y'all can be a bit strict at times, but you've cultivated a fantastic discussion space. I've honestly found myself struggling with an addiction to these forums.

Thank you so much, admins, mods, staff, and everyone else that keeps this community ticking!
by cos
Thu May 07, 2020 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]
Replies: 296
Views: 23220

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

If I was an accumulator who didn't want to hold bonds directly I'd consider: 50% NTSX 15% VIOV US small cap value 15% ISCF ex-US small cap multifactor 10% VWO emerging markets 10% VWOB emerging markets government bonds (I count these more as equities than bonds based on their behavior) My portfolio...
by cos
Wed May 06, 2020 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is lump sum investment option better than DCA?
Replies: 156
Views: 5723

Re: Why is lump sum investment option better than DCA?

bog419 wrote:
Wed May 06, 2020 6:15 pm
It's like a a russian roulette with 3 holes and one bullet. One never wants to play such a game, especially now.
So you'd rather play Russian roulette with three holes and two bullets? How is that better?
by cos
Tue May 05, 2020 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5059
Views: 439554

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Fellow Adventurers, There are a few assumptions that would need to hold true in order for this adventure to continue to prove fruitful. One of those assumptions is that US large Cap is going to continue to do well. It has done very well the past decade but that of course does not mean it will do we...
by cos
Sun May 03, 2020 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Paradigm Changes Call for Change In Strategies?
Replies: 24
Views: 1513

Re: Do Paradigm Changes Call for Change In Strategies?

1) Can you or anyone guarantee OP will not be unemployed for more than 1 year between now and the next 20 to 30 years? The rational answer would be no. Of course not. However, I also cannot guarantee that OP won't be dead tomorrow. All anyone can do is assume probabilities and behave accordingly. O...
by cos
Sun May 03, 2020 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation Based on Asset Amount
Replies: 14
Views: 848

Re: Asset Allocation Based on Asset Amount

If anything, this makes more sense. "Age in bonds" is a horrendous rule of thumb.
by cos
Sun May 03, 2020 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Paradigm Changes Call for Change In Strategies?
Replies: 24
Views: 1513

Re: Do Paradigm Changes Call for Change In Strategies?

OP, You should not be 100% stock period. It is not safe to put all your eggs into one basket. This is basic common sense. KlangFool Unless we are not talking about retirement funds or OP plans on retiring early, this is terrible advice for a 32-year-old. Anything short of 100% equities makes little...
by cos
Sun May 03, 2020 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5059
Views: 439554

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

For those wondering what effect yield curve control might have on this strategy, the following article should allow you to effectively form your own conclusions: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/08/14/what-is-yield-curve-control/ Regardless of what the Fed decides to do, it seems like ra...
by cos
Sun May 03, 2020 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5059
Views: 439554

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

As far as M1 goes, I did find this post on Reddit which suggests setting up 5 weekly scheduled deposits. But that goes back to the earlier discussion about lump sum vs spread out contributions. Although I guess you could do a big lump sum every so often as well as a daily contribution of their mini...
by cos
Sat May 02, 2020 9:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to place cash for monthly expenses?
Replies: 16
Views: 948

Re: Where to place cash for monthly expenses?

pay off mortgage, 3% guarantee return. Paid half off. Holding cash back right now during the virus craziness. what do you gain holding cash in CD vs paying off the mortgage ? I have not had a mortgage for over 20 years and have been 100% in equities ever since. I’m hoarding some cash as my cash flo...
by cos
Sat May 02, 2020 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5059
Views: 439554

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

HEDGEFUNDIE, I know you have elaborated before but cannot find it in these 2,000,000 pages of thread... could you remind us what happened post 1982 as far as fed monetary policy and how that would prevent a 1970-ish spike in rates? Or any articles on the subject? Thanks! Not OP, but from the Federa...
by cos
Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5059
Views: 439554

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Is there a type of account that a bet like this be best held in? i.e. IRA, Roth, brokerage...? A Roth IRA is definitely your best bet. The mandatory rebalancing that goes along with this strategy and its variants can get pretty costly tax-wise. That said, I'm personally using this strategy in both ...
by cos
Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5059
Views: 439554

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I'm just starting to read into all this, but have a very basic question: HEDGEFUNDIE describes this approach as a lottery ticket approach that is walled-off from his other assets. If using leverage, aren't you on the hook beyond the assets in that one account? i.e. isn't he making a personal guaran...
by cos
Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much to tip on DoorDash?
Replies: 60
Views: 4996

Re: How much to tip on DoorDash?

I generally tip 20% everywhere, especially through delivery apps like DoorDash, GrubHub, and Uber Eats. Having worked in the service industry myself, I know firsthand that these people aren't being paid enough. I round up if I'm content with the service and round down if I'm disappointed. If I'm rea...
by cos
Wed Apr 22, 2020 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Your views on used car parts Industry
Replies: 31
Views: 1279

Re: Your views on used car parts Industry

I don’t understand why people are coming to Bogleheads for individual stock picking advice. It’s not even that I’m opposed to stock picking, it’s more that this is a terrible place to ask it. Would you ask your Uber driver or grocery checkout clerk about stock picking? Then why would you ask on Bog...
by cos
Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Vanguard or any other institution offer the ability to customize index funds?
Replies: 40
Views: 1885

Re: Does Vanguard or any other institution offer the ability to customize index funds?

I’m surprised no one has mentioned Motif Investing yet. Yes, OP, this seems to be exactly what you're looking for: https://www.motif.com/products/direct-index-portfolios Late breaking news: Motif is shutting down! :shock: :| https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2020/04/18/investing-platform-motif-to-shut-d...
by cos
Sun Apr 19, 2020 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 190
Views: 16607

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

Sorry if this question have already been answere. Would anyone do 100% NTSX in a TAXABLE account and keep contributing to that and just that ? thanks VJ I was doing exactly this for a time before switching to a riskier allocation. My SO is currently doing this and plans to do so until retirement. I...