Search found 148 matches

by NearlyRetired
Thu Apr 02, 2020 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3698
Views: 263464

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I almost find it comical that the market is basically shrugging off the now 10M jobs lost in the past two weeks (at least looking at futures at 9:26AM). Seems like the professionals are taking the individual buy and hold stay the course investors for fools. They are (and have been) unloading while ...
by NearlyRetired
Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:49 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4939
Views: 181514

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Saw this today. Not sure if these statistics are purely for UK, that particular hospital, or wider, but it makes for grim reading From an article in the Daily Mail (see https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8175379/Volunteers-NHS-Nightingale-hospital-warned-80-cent-patients-ventilators-DIE.html )...
by NearlyRetired
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:03 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4939
Views: 181514

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

In December I was sick as hell. I was sick for weeks, missed several days of work and seemed to take forever to fully recover. I know many others in my area that had a rough cold/flu season this winter. I wonder if the virus was already here back in December and we just didn’t know it. Is it possib...
by NearlyRetired
Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3698
Views: 263464

Re: Coronavirus and the market

https://youtu.be/9PYsVkPtcXk Video from Ben Felix. No offense intended to you, but I just watched it and there wasn't anything new there...it's basically the standard boglehead advice which, for anyone who's been following this thread, or who has spent any amount of time in this forum, has already ...
by NearlyRetired
Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:34 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4939
Views: 181514

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

3 - Look for the UK to experience one of the worst outbreaks of any major economic power, in my opinion worse than Italy. They have done next to nothing, only recently starting to take some measures, most of which are "recommendations," which few seem to be following. Testing there has also been sp...
by NearlyRetired
Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:15 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4939
Views: 181514

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

craimund wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:13 am
40% of all COVID-19 infections in the US are now in New York State.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
we are seeing something similar here in the UK, with London being a hot spot
by NearlyRetired
Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:32 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4939
Views: 181514

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Take a look at this - a flu vaccine that appears to have an effect on Coronvirus...

The Guardian
by NearlyRetired
Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:53 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4939
Views: 181514

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

On a more general note, it is very interesting to read the UK's rationale for their new policiy not to test in mild cases and to keep schools open. They are intentionally trying to build up herd immunity they say. Of course, the policy is coming under massive critique. Seems just like the "do nothi...
by NearlyRetired
Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:59 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4939
Views: 181514

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

read this article today. Quite interesting. It shouldn't be behind a paywall
by NearlyRetired
Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:09 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4939
Views: 181514

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

So, I'm just curious. If you get it, how long does it last (assuming you recover)? This question was posed to our deputy chief medical (or scientific) officer on the BBC news yesterday. Her response was it takes about 5 days from being exposed to showing symptoms and a further 5-7 days for those to...
by NearlyRetired
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.
Replies: 487
Views: 39321

Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

It is an odd feeling thinking that threads like these (and the other, less calm ones) will be pointed to in the future, much like the 2008-2009 posts when some people lost their investing nerve. Only difference is in 2008-2009 I was just starting my career and put what little I could into my Roth I...
by NearlyRetired
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3698
Views: 263464

Re: Coronavirus and the market

DCA beats Lump Sum into a declining market and reduces the odds of a 50% haircut in that first year. After that first year you're in the market at the allocation you prefer. I see your points, but am not sure I see how DCA solves them. If the market goes down slightly more but recovers quickly, you...
by NearlyRetired
Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3698
Views: 263464

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I think we keep falling until we hear people lamenting that it will never rebound, the market won't recover, that they are swearing off stocks forever. At least I'm not seeing as many advertisements propagating the idea of easy money to be made through stock trading. In fact, it's been about a week...
by NearlyRetired
Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3698
Views: 263464

Re: Coronavirus and the market

veggivet wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:37 am
Look out below...airline industry estimates losses of between $65 and $130 billion (yes, quite a range, I know) in lost revenues due to this 'bad flu bug'.
I wonder if that includes the gains made with the bottom falling out of the oil market
by NearlyRetired
Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.
Replies: 487
Views: 39321

Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Made a thread end of 2019 regarding my fear of starting investing. Understood that lump sum beats DCA and did that. Now lost 20% of my whole assets in 2.5 weeks. Anything positive I can take away from the whole situation? Well, unless you are just about to retire (unlikely as you wouldn't have put ...
by NearlyRetired
Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three Fund Vs Butterfly Fund or other
Replies: 149
Views: 10297

Re: Three Fund Vs Butterfly Fund or other

No guarantee my numbers are correct but from the close of 2/19/20 to today (3/9/20) I have: SPY: -18.95% 60/40: -9.51 (SPY/VGIT) Permanent Portfolio: +1.19% (using GLD,VGLT, VGSH and SPY) Certainly once you hit your number and want to sleep easily the PP certainly is working. If/when rates ever ris...
by NearlyRetired
Sat Mar 07, 2020 12:14 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4939
Views: 181514

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Thought people might be interested in this .....

Coronavirus: nine reasons to be reassured

Edit: no idea how this ended in this thread. Will try to move
by NearlyRetired
Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:02 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4939
Views: 181514

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

"By April" there is no evidence that this virus has seasonal component. In fact, other than the similarity in SOME of the symptoms, this is not a flu. The onset and severity of influenza and this virus are very different. This is an example of misinformation fomenting fear. A few comments, "there i...
by NearlyRetired
Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.
Replies: 487
Views: 39321

Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Nice to see that not everyone is panicking. I am another one staying the course and not too worried about this from a financial perspective. Corrections and bear markets are part of the plan going into equity investing. And, indeed, if it is a correction, as I have just retired, the timing couldn't...
by NearlyRetired
Sat Feb 29, 2020 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3698
Views: 263464

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I do. I caught it!! I can't remember much concern about it though TBH - you were aware it was around, but not much more than that How do you know it was H1N1 and not just the regular flu? Was there a diagnostic test for it? It's really strange because I almost never ever fall ill, and I've only got...
by NearlyRetired
Sat Feb 29, 2020 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3698
Views: 263464

Re: Coronavirus and the market

So we have a couple of confirmed COVID-19 cases now in the US that are believed to be community acquired (2 in CA, 1 in OR, 1 in WA) and they don't appear to have a single common link between them. It would not be surprising to learn there are many more people in the US already affected by the viru...
by NearlyRetired
Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.
Replies: 487
Views: 39321

Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

SocalLiving wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:00 am
We have travel plans to London in early April. It is much trickier right now to figure out what to do about that. We are in a "wait and see" mode for that.
Come on over and enjoy our hospitality :sharebeer
by NearlyRetired
Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.
Replies: 487
Views: 39321

Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

I posted earlier in this thread that I intended to see how I feel as events unfold and use that to understand whether my current AA is too rich for me (currently 43/57). Out of interest I looked to see what my portfolio has done since the start of the year. It is currently down 0.1% which, consideri...
by NearlyRetired
Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3698
Views: 263464

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I think "risk tolerance" doesn't capture all the nuances. Tolerance of what type of risk? I think I have a fairly high risk tolerance of the normal ebbs and flows of the business cycle/market ups and downs/bad news/noise/etc. I start getting twitchy, though, with highly abnormal risks, of which a g...
by NearlyRetired
Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3698
Views: 263464

Re: Coronavirus and the market

WhyNotUs wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:23 am
Any companies with bad earning news in their pipeline will want to dump that news now and somehow try to tie it to the virus. Good time to reset expectations if you were heading off course.
+1
by NearlyRetired
Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3698
Views: 263464

Re: Coronavirus and the market

They just developed a serological test for covid-19 antibodies. It is being used in Singapore to track infections. It will probably be widely available soon. I think this will be a major advancement in gaining information and tracking the epidemic. So, perhaps the data and observations that are mov...
by NearlyRetired
Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18105
Views: 2554577

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Stinky wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:08 pm
Futures are negative tonight.

They’ve been positive the last few nights, but the market has been down the next day.

So maybe the futures market is a contraindicator. Maybe the market will be positive tomorrow.
Or maybe not :happy
by NearlyRetired
Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:49 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 1326
Views: 182667

Re: Our mortgage is GONE!

After working to aggressively pay down our mortgage for the last five years, we finally paid it off this morning. :D Yes, we would have come out ahead had we invested the funds in U.S. stocks, but we are very content with the guaranteed return we received (3.375%). We certainly did better than had ...
by NearlyRetired
Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3698
Views: 263464

Re: Coronavirus and the market

In medical school we had a lecture on the flu. At the beginning the professor asked everyone who had the flu to raise his hand. Nearly everyone did. Then we learned about the real flu. It's horrible. At the end the professor asked everyone who had the flu to raise his hand. Nearly no one did. If yo...
by NearlyRetired
Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18105
Views: 2554577

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

And...we’re back in the red today. So glad I have a written IPS that I can read and follow when I get nervous. In 2008 I was working and making money so pouring money into the market all the way down and then all the way back up didn’t bother me at all. Now in early retirement, weeks like this make...
by NearlyRetired
Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3698
Views: 263464

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I think it is just that this took people by "surprise" and there was a big (perhaps over) reaction. The media of course stokes the flames by red banners of "breaking news" 24/7. Does that have any real impact on the market though? Long-term? No. Short-term? Yes, as we are seeing now. Interested to ...
by NearlyRetired
Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3698
Views: 263464

Re: Coronavirus and the market

knpstr wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:22 pm
I think it is just that this took people by "surprise" and there was a big (perhaps over) reaction.

The media of course stokes the flames by red banners of "breaking news" 24/7.
Does that have any real impact on the market though?
by NearlyRetired
Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.
Replies: 487
Views: 39321

Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

It seems to me that it is much easier to be "calm" when one's portfolio's value is 40 or 50 (or more) times their annual expenses. For those who have smaller portfolio balances, I think that it would be much harder to be "calm," but I probably respect them more. Mine is 18 times and I'm calm..... c...
by NearlyRetired
Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3698
Views: 263464

Re: Corona virus and the market

I can see the potential for significant impact on cruise lines and airlines. If the virus spreads more widely, many people will start avoiding planes and cruise ships. Already happening. Not " will start avoiding". Are avoiding. Too many news stories here (UK) of British couples trapped on cruise s...
by NearlyRetired
Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3698
Views: 263464

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Before this drop, there was discussion on this board as to whether the markets had priced in the virus getting nasty. I am interested to see, if whether the markets have effectively priced in Coronvirus going global (which I am assuming the recent sell off is reflecting), or whether the markets wil...
by NearlyRetired
Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3698
Views: 263464

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Before this drop, there was discussion on this board as to whether the markets had priced in the virus getting nasty. I am interested to see, if whether the markets have effectively priced in Coronvirus going global (which I am assuming the recent sell off is reflecting), or whether the markets will...
by NearlyRetired
Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.
Replies: 487
Views: 39321

Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

A good idea for a thread :beer I have recently retired (1 month ago) so no longer accumulate any funds (just spending the money 8-) ), so I am watching all this turmoil with interest as it is a "first" for me. However I have no intention of changing my AA (currently 43/57) as this will eventually a...
by NearlyRetired
Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]
Replies: 432
Views: 271861

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]

Funnily enough Sheepdog I was thinking about this thread when the others around current market movements popped up. I wonder what the BH's who went through the 07-09 crisis are thinking about the current market volatility - although this is (currently) no where near as severe I suspect that most ar...
by NearlyRetired
Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.
Replies: 487
Views: 39321

Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

pharmermummles wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:52 am
While I'm 100% with you in principal, how will this thread ever be as entertaining as the sarcastic posts in the other two threads? Can we still calmly crack wise?
YES, YES :D
by NearlyRetired
Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]
Replies: 432
Views: 271861

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]

Perhaps it is time to reintroduce this 2008 post and the continued contributions from this group over the last decade plus. It hurt then, but it is nice to be cool today because of what was learned since. Funnily enough Sheepdog I was thinking about this thread when the others around current market...
by NearlyRetired
Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.
Replies: 487
Views: 39321

Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

A good idea for a thread :beer I have recently retired (1 month ago) so no longer accumulate any funds (just spending the money 8-) ), so I am watching all this turmoil with interest as it is a "first" for me. However I have no intention of changing my AA (currently 43/57) as this will eventually al...
by NearlyRetired
Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:06 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2020!
Replies: 114
Views: 14897

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2020!

I have finally set my date: June 5th, 2020. I am very excited, but full of butterflies....working has been the majority of my life (sad, I guess). I will still be 59 at the time....looking forward! peace all! I have just retired (two weeks ago now 8-) ) and all I can say is you will enjoy it - roll...
by NearlyRetired
Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three Fund Vs Butterfly Fund or other
Replies: 149
Views: 10297

Re: Three Fund Vs Butterfly Fund or other

Independent George wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:32 am
At least until we start synthesizing fuel from the seawater.
Off-topic I know, but Wow
by NearlyRetired
Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Big Data and Market Forecasting
Replies: 26
Views: 1550

Re: Big Data and Market Forecasting

My opinion having worked in data and analytics - data is garbage and requires a lot of scrubbing. Even then, people miss things that impact the results of a black box / statistical model. The modeling process makes it more difficult to interpret results (pass the qualitative test). Basically lots o...
by NearlyRetired
Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Big Data and Market Forecasting
Replies: 26
Views: 1550

Re: Big Data and Market Forecasting

To summarize the OP's idea: can Big Data and computational speed and power increase to the point where markets will be predictable? I doubt it, because of the human factor, but it's an interesting question. Similar question: suppose you could time travel back 150 years (before anyone even heard of ...
by NearlyRetired
Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Big Data and Market Forecasting
Replies: 26
Views: 1550

Re: Big Data and Market Forecasting

My opinion having worked in data and analytics - data is garbage and requires a lot of scrubbing. Even then, people miss things that impact the results of a black box / statistical model. The modeling process makes it more difficult to interpret results (pass the qualitative test). Basically lots o...
by NearlyRetired
Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Big Data and Market Forecasting
Replies: 26
Views: 1550

Re: Big Data and Market Forecasting

To think of a similar analogy (in my mind at least), look at how weather forecasting has got better at predicting the future through the use of faster processing power coupled with the ability to capture a vast amount of data and looking at historical patterns to help provide models for future outc...
by NearlyRetired
Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Big Data and Market Forecasting
Replies: 26
Views: 1550

Re: Big Data and Market Forecasting

Remember that Hari Seldon's psychohistory predictions became disrupted after a black swan event (the Mule). I can't remember that level of detail unfortunately, but I do wonder, if we collect enough data points, over a long enough period of time (whatever that may be) we could well be in a position...
by NearlyRetired
Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Big Data and Market Forecasting
Replies: 26
Views: 1550

Big Data and Market Forecasting

Hi BHs Not sure if this is the right forum for this discussion, but here goes.... A long while ago, I read the Foundation Series of books from Issac Asimov (Foundation, Foundation & Empire, Second Foundation). In those books (and I'll be a little vague, but from memory) there was a branch of science...
by NearlyRetired
Mon Jan 20, 2020 2:15 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: SWR - For Retirees in UK
Replies: 28
Views: 1632

Re: SWR - For Retirees in UK

These SWR rates certainly changed my thoughts on my Portfolio construction many years ago Home bias was not the way ahead -I wanted to share in the benefits of US growth and interest rates in Equities and Bonds I went international with approx 13/ 85 -UK/Rest of the World split-Equities 100% Global...