Search found 447 matches

by beehivehave
Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who are getting excited with the plummeting market?
Replies: 100
Views: 10138

Re: Who are getting excited with the plummeting market?

Goldman thinks the market bottoms out around 2,450 mid-year. That would be 28% off the Feb 19th high. From there, they forecast a rebound to 3,200 by year end. No idea if that's right or not, but that's probably about what I would have guessed, except with a slower recovery. https://www.cnbc.com/20...
by beehivehave
Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:53 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195786

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Not sure what your problem is, mate. But here I am with my AR15 and loads of TP. Keep it coming. 'MURICA! I thought your original response was tongue in cheek, no? So I was responding in kind. And I do not understand why some people on this board are still downplaying this issue. 1. Denial 2. Don't...
by beehivehave
Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19464
Views: 2695975

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:42 am
Futures are down about 3% right now. More blood tomorrow methinks. Mr. Market can't make up his mind about anything right now and is more spastic than a rabid chihuahua at a cat convention.
Oh, its made up its mind alright.
by beehivehave
Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey Reacts to Stock Market Crash
Replies: 93
Views: 15193

Re: Dave Ramsey Reacts to Stock Market Crash

What he means is it's the best single opportunity to invest in indexes or actively managed funds (depending on your preference) and pick up the same exact companies that a week or two weeks ago were selling for 30% or higher. You can point out 15 months ago as having the S&P at 2350, but what you c...
by beehivehave
Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?
Replies: 185
Views: 10350

Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

All of these posts remind me of an adage that an elder who had lived through the depression told me 60 years ago: When your neighbor is unemployed, it’s a recession. When you are unemployed, it’s a depression. If you are experiencing a depression, you may not be so thankful for the effects of the c...
by beehivehave
Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VWLUX and VWIUX [Long and Intermediate tax-exempt]
Replies: 94
Views: 5635

Re: VWLUX and VWIUX

Stocks way up, money going there (at least for the day), so most bond funds of all types lost.
Also, existing government and corporate debt is high, so that may exacerbate losses.
by beehivehave
Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey Reacts to Stock Market Crash
Replies: 93
Views: 15193

Re: Dave Ramsey Reacts to Stock Market Crash

Best buying opportunity in 10 or 15 years. More like 15 months, unless he thinks S&P 500 at 2750 is a better than it was at 2350 15 months earlier. What he means is it's the best single opportunity to invest in indexes or actively managed funds (depending on your preference) and pick up the same ex...
by beehivehave
Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:37 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195786

Re: Coronavirus and the market

The article is discussing Twitter comments from Liz Specht, - PhD in biology and the associate director of Science and Technology for the Good Food Institute. Her math is concerning, but hard to argue against. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html I don’t know Liz Specht, her ...
by beehivehave
Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:07 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195786

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I think the theory that it was circulating world-wide for a long time is just as likely to be true as the theory that it "broke out" in China. Maybe they were just the first to identify it, and the illnesses and deaths elsewhere were just being attributed to other causes like the flu and pneumonia....
by beehivehave
Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:34 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195786

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

We know that COVID-19 is 2-3 times more contagious than a normal flu... Do we know this? I have seen conflicting information on this. I don’t think we know yet. Not for sure, but best estimates according to JAMA is that virus R0 is 2 to 2.5, comparable to the 1918 Spanish flu, while regular flu is ...
by beehivehave
Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:27 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195786

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

The good news is China seems to be proving you can control it, at least if you take extreme measures.
The bad news is the US seems to be treating it as an economic issue, with rate cuts and stimulus spending, not as a medical one.
by beehivehave
Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:01 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195786

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Pitiful.
Hope we get lucky.
by beehivehave
Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306645

Re: Coronavirus and the market

You are either confused or intentionally mixing up your stats. It hit 61M in the US, killed 600,000 worldwide. The US death total was 12,000. And there was no panic as you claim. As I posted, we don't know the future of this new virus, but it could be a lot worse as it is deadlier, probably more co...
by beehivehave
Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306645

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Virus was perfect excuse for overdue correction Last years growth was absurd ... those people buying at the top are the same ones selling off in droves ... round and round we go ... Feel free to google H1N1 2009 articles and see if you can tell the difference in the pictures/media hysteria/market b...
by beehivehave
Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on International - Do politics, cultures, and demographics inform your int'l allocation?
Replies: 178
Views: 6045

Re: Bogle on International - Do politics, cultures, and demographics inform your int'l allocation?

So we should not eschew international, but we should overweight in US investments. What's the definition of overweight in this context? IMO maybe 70% to 85%. If by logical extension you should try to emulate US investors, holdings in international should be at least that held by the average US inve...
by beehivehave
Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The ideal investment percentage in cryptocurrencies.
Replies: 42
Views: 1924

Re: The ideal investment percentage in cryptocurrencies.

No doubt, cryptocurrencies are the new gold. Except worse, because gold is a commodity.
by beehivehave
Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?
Replies: 185
Views: 10350

Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

DW and I are both 40 so mid Accumulator Stage. The unstable market doesn't bother me - it's the longer-term impact of companies missing their financial targets, putting projects & new purchases on hold and layoffs that scare me more. It's great to have a steady paycheck coming in to support 401Ks a...
by beehivehave
Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:24 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195786

Re: Coronavirus and the market

The drama over this virus is very interesting considering most of the people who will die from it are above 65 years of age. I even hear a Government ringtone advising me to not shake hands with people even though I am young enough to have a 0.1% risk of dying from it :oops: Not the first time we'v...
by beehivehave
Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon changes vitamins default to subscribe
Replies: 11
Views: 1319

Re: Amazon changes vitamins default to subscribe

SuperGrafx wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:35 pm
Another reason to not use Amazon.
Just pick some up at your local supermarket or Target/Walmart.
Amen. They love their captive suckers, er, I mean customers with all that "free" shipping. You can always buy them on sale instead.
by beehivehave
Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not exchange all total bond for total market today?
Replies: 35
Views: 2737

Re: Why not exchange all total bond for total market today?

So why do you think that it is a sure bet that stocks will outperform fixed income over 10 years? Historically, I think this only true about 2/3 of the time. Even after 30 years it has been 80%. What happens if the stock market tanks just before your retirement? Seems wise to hedge your bets a littl...
by beehivehave
Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why I should cancel our trip to Tokyo next month.
Replies: 26
Views: 2215

Re: Why I should cancel our trip to Tokyo next month.

Wouldn't surprise me that you would be safer there. But why do you think just because you are under 60 you are safe? As far as we have stats, the virus death rate for those in their 50s is 1.3%, or about 20 times that for the seasonal flu. Even if you are healthy, that is nothing to sneeze at (pun i...
by beehivehave
Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:37 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195786

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

So I read that Dr. Fauci says the worst will be over in about two months. Where did you read that? I don't remember and now that I look for it I can't find it. I don’t think he ever said that. It's pretty much counter to everything he has said. He chooses his words very carefully. Since the adminis...
by beehivehave
Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306645

Re: Coronavirus and the market

The Saudis and Russians make a bad situation worse. Who'da thunk it?
by beehivehave
Sun Mar 08, 2020 4:10 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195786

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Maybe some of the skeptics will believe this source from this news channel about the potential seriousness of the virus: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fauci-says-anything-is-possible-when-asked-about-widespread-coronavirus-quarantine Highly unlikely. Video of some attendees in line outside an up...
by beehivehave
Sun Mar 08, 2020 4:00 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195786

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Any ideas why the death rate in Italy is so high compared to South Korea? As of right now the two countries show almost the exact same number of confirmed cases but Italy's death rate is is around 5% while Korea's is around 0.7%. Two countries of similar wealth, I'd assume similar quality of health...
by beehivehave
Sun Mar 08, 2020 3:51 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195786

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

This will be a catastrophic event, both economically and from a human health perspective. None of the news is good. People will die due to a lack of medical support and a dearth of proper medical equipment. It's not something any of has seen in our lifetimes. Maybe. Maybe not. So far, pretty much e...
by beehivehave
Sun Mar 08, 2020 3:12 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195786

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Maybe some of the skeptics will believe this source from this news channel about the potential seriousness of the virus:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fauci- ... quarantine
by beehivehave
Sun Mar 08, 2020 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrency
Replies: 75
Views: 7073

Re: Cryptocurrency

Old Shoe wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:50 pm
Drug dealers, money launderers, tax evaders, illegal gamblers, prostitution rings, have used fiat money (hard currency) for centuries.
But they are more easily caught. Now they have found a much better way.
by beehivehave
Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrency
Replies: 75
Views: 7073

Re: Cryptocurrency

What's unethical about cryptocurrency? You can buy a pizza with Bitcoin, that's not unethical. Sure, there's dark web skulduggery that uses cryptocurrency, but the same fiat money also can fund skulduggery. The anonymity of cyrptocurrency is not inherently unethical or corrupt. Consider the extreme...
by beehivehave
Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:17 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195786

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

This will be a catastrophic event, both economically and from a human health perspective. None of the news is good. People will die due to a lack of medical support and a dearth of proper medical equipment. It's not something any of has seen in our lifetimes. Maybe. Maybe not. So far, pretty much e...
by beehivehave
Sun Mar 08, 2020 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306645

Re: Coronavirus and the market

The last thing we need is another rate cut. If things suddenly get worse, it won't help. If things suddenly get better, it will just bubble the market.
by beehivehave
Sun Mar 08, 2020 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on International - Do politics, cultures, and demographics inform your int'l allocation?
Replies: 178
Views: 6045

Re: Bogle on International - Do politics, cultures, and demographics inform your int'l allocation?

No. 1. Asset value is primarily driven by local conditions, including economic performance, inflation, domestic markets, and exchange rates. 2. US residents invest more in US than international markets. 3. We measure our standard of living at least in part relative to that of the US economy (our nei...
by beehivehave
Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:46 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195786

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

This will be a catastrophic event, both economically and from a human health perspective. None of the news is good. People will die due to a lack of medical support and a dearth of proper medical equipment. It's not something any of has seen in our lifetimes. lol Literally just had a physical / blo...
by beehivehave
Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrency
Replies: 75
Views: 7073

Re: Cryptocurrency

What about the ethical aspect? When you buy it, you are implicitly encouraging all kinds of illegal activities by rewarding the sellers who are paid for engaging in them.
by beehivehave
Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What USPS “Snail Mail” Option Do You Recommend for Tax Return?
Replies: 57
Views: 3126

Re: What USPS “Snail Mail” Option Do You Recommend for Tax Return?

Send it first class well ahead of time. The worst that can happen is a delayed refund or a small penalty (a few days interest) for late payment.
by beehivehave
Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sure wish Jack was here to opine
Replies: 54
Views: 4335

Re: Sure wish Jack was here to opine

Bogle lived through a depression, a world war, and some false alarms, so my guess is he would probably say this too will pass.
Except nobody knows whether it will take weeks or years.
Keep saving.
by beehivehave
Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:59 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195786

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

This will be a catastrophic event, both economically and from a human health perspective. None of the news is good. People will die due to a lack of medical support and a dearth of proper medical equipment. It's not something any of has seen in our lifetimes. lol Literally just had a physical / blo...
by beehivehave
Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:54 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195786

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Ok, let's pretend that "it's just the flu." A new strain of flu that No one has any immunity to (a major factor that limits the impact of influenza) We don't have a vaccine for (a major factor that limits the impact of influenza) Requires hospitalization for 20% of people who catch it Has a much hi...
by beehivehave
Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: coronavirus vs air filter
Replies: 10
Views: 813

Re: coronavirus vs air filter

It should work if you can just get everybody to breathe directly into the filter...
by beehivehave
Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:04 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195786

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Key board warriors. Nobody is actually an epidemiologist, physician at ground zero, lawmaker trying to address this, or a nurse treating patients. Nobody that really has managed a crisis. But everyone is an internet expert wringing their hands over sound bites - "this is preposterous! They are tryi...
by beehivehave
Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Stock Market Index - Section 199A dividends this year
Replies: 169
Views: 21652

Re: Total Stock Market Index - Section 199A dividends this year

I sure am glad they "simplified" tax returns. Instead, they made it more complicated and simplified nothing beyond raising the standard deduction. Thank you, lobbyists for special interests. Without software it is requires a lot of extra forms and understanding complicated instructions - and I reall...
by beehivehave
Sat Mar 07, 2020 12:03 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195786

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

No, the experts, in contrast to the merely opinionated, don't disagree. According to CDC guidance issued Thursday, if you are at high risk (elderly or with other health conditions) you should: Stay at home as much as possible. Make sure you have access to several weeks of medications and supplies in...
by beehivehave
Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:00 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195786

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

There is nothing wrong with being hopefully optimistic about the virus and there are certainly several key unknowns. Perhaps we will get lucky with the unknowns and/or take adequate countermeasures to avoid a large death toll. But it seems that those who think the media are overhyping the potential ...
by beehivehave
Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:10 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195786

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Experts? The so called "experts" are all over the map on this. Some claim the death rate is <1% (data from South Korea supports a death rate of 0.6%) while others say we should prepare for the apocalypse. COVID-19 Mortality Rate May Be 'Considerably Less Than 1%' https://www.medscape.com/viewarticl...
by beehivehave
Fri Mar 06, 2020 2:40 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195786

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Many posts remind me of the old quip (which I post every now and then): Man falls from 100th floor. Someone sees him from their third floor window and asks how things are going. He replies, fine so far. Less cryptically, the worry is that things can get much worse, even if death and disease are not...
by beehivehave
Thu Mar 05, 2020 7:22 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195786

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

If you have 45 free minutes, the Dr. Hotez video on Facebook (link is given a few replies above this one by CedarWaxWing) is absolutely worth your time. He is an recognized expert on tropical and communicable diseases. He is very worried about many health care workers becoming seriously ill from th...
by beehivehave
Thu Mar 05, 2020 7:20 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195786

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

GaryA505 wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:46 pm
The media loves to push scary stories because people love it (kinda like a scary movie).
That is true, but sometimes the story is scary. The publicity is promoting healthy practices, despite occasional hysteria. Better people are scared than dead.
by beehivehave
Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:01 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195786

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

To help clarify some of the thinking of the arm-chair epidemiologists out there: if this coronovirus, or Covid-19, were a minor issue (compared to other health matters, such as the seasonal flu), as some are trying to say based on whatever data, or on opinion, or on some combination of both, then c...
by beehivehave
Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:50 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195786

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Just read this morning that a New Hampshire person had the symptoms and was told to self quarantine. They didn't, and instead went to a social function and gave it to at least one other person. If people are going to ignore the health expert recommendations, then we are in deep trouble. Told to Sta...