Search found 85 matches

by prioritarian
Mon Jan 20, 2020 8:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Prioritizing investments
Replies: 20
Views: 1618

Re: Prioritizing investments

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Prioritizing_investments I didn't see 529 mentioned here but I assume it'll be before taxable. After reading this, I am actually impressed why/how people are able to have a taxable. To me (someone working at a megacorp), it seems like you can put most of your money i...
by prioritarian
Mon Jan 20, 2020 8:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Not eligible for HSA?
Replies: 7
Views: 650

Re: Not eligible for HSA?

quantAndHold wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 4:44 pm
HSA requires a high DEDUCTIBLE health plan. High out of pocket max is a different thing.

Edit: IRS pub 969 explains what qualifies.
Not all high-deductible health plans come with HSAs. This is something that has to be set up by the insurer.
by prioritarian
Mon Jan 20, 2020 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: indexers buying negative interest bonds
Replies: 46
Views: 5090

Re: indexers buying negative interest bonds

Negative yield is actually relatively uninteresting, market prices fluctuate and its not surprising bondholders would experience negative yields from time to time in the ordinary course. Exactly. For anyone who has an overweight equities AA, bonds mainly function as a diversifying position and/or a...
by prioritarian
Mon Jan 20, 2020 2:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vehicles as a percentage of net worth
Replies: 130
Views: 14931

Re: Vehicles as a percentage of net worth

I personally consider autos to be an enormous and unnecessary expense so am planning on getting rid of my automobile soon. (It's a 2012 Leaf EV bought used.)
by prioritarian
Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not go all aggressive? The risk seems about the same....
Replies: 51
Views: 4102

Re: Why not go all aggressive? The risk seems about the same....

watchnerd wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:59 am
"...looming government regulation."
This is a political statement. I thought these were not allowed here.
by prioritarian
Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What causes a bond bear market? Can it lead to sequence of returns risk?
Replies: 19
Views: 2283

Re: What causes a bond bear market?

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:36 pm
There is no "bond bear market" (a 20% decline) for mainstream bonds. The worst annual return for Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund was -2.66% in 1944. TBM gained +16.00% in 1945.

This is also why concerns of a "bond bubble" really aren't justified.
by prioritarian
Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Those that have an "Anti-Boglehead" investment account, what are your "risky" plays?
Replies: 163
Views: 18631

Re: Those that have an "Anti-Boglehead" investment account, what are your "risky" plays?

I tilt my bonds to long duration treasuries when I believe we are firmly in the late cycle and move back to total bonds in the recovery stage.

I tilt my international equities position to emerging stocks using a low-volatility EM fund (EEMV).

(Overall AA: US eq: 35, Int eq: 30, Bonds: 35.)
by prioritarian
Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 2 fund plan with Fidelity?
Replies: 13
Views: 1049

Re: 2 fund plan with Fidelity?

neo_ny wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:26 pm
Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:17 pm

FSKAX TSM US 0.015 or. FZROX 0.00
Is there a difference between these funds? If they are same/similar why would one pick the fund with the 0.015 over 0.00? Thanks!
The use slightly different indices.
by prioritarian
Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: One-time rollover from IRA to HSA question
Replies: 8
Views: 682

Re: One-time rollover from IRA to HSA question

It would cancel out. If you withdraw $3000 from an IRA, that is $3000 of adjusted gross income. If you then contribute $3000 to an HSA, that reduces your adjusted gross income by $3000, so you break even. I don't think it cancels out because the one time rollover to an HSA is not taxable. https://w...
by prioritarian
Tue Dec 17, 2019 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My 3 buckets: 1 yr cash + 2 yr bond + stocks
Replies: 114
Views: 9949

Re: My 3 buckets: 1 yr cash + 2 yr bond + stocks

I've don't understood the need for multiple buckets because the risk of a total bond fund (or intermediate treasury/muni fund) being unavailable due to economic conditions seems incredibly low. I personally consider the bond portion of my AA to be my emergency fund. Best and worst 1 year rolling ret...
by prioritarian
Sat Dec 14, 2019 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Spend HSA or save it?
Replies: 60
Views: 4786

Re: Spend HSA or save it?

neilpilot wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:53 am
Correct, but in most cases your medical expenses will far exceed your HSA balance after you enter retirement.
For younger people who invest aggressively for decades this may not be the case. (I personally have VFIAX as my sole investment in my HSA)
by prioritarian
Sat Dec 14, 2019 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity on International Markets
Replies: 48
Views: 3579

Re: Fidelity on International Markets

Buying FZILX despite all the bogleheads saying no to Fidelity zero expense funds had worked out great in the past year. I was a proponent of FZILX in some of those discussions and one of the concerns of other bogleheads has materialized. Unlike vanguard funds, FZILX did return a small capital gains...
by prioritarian
Sat Dec 14, 2019 3:17 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Vanguard Global all cap tracker 1.69% out on the day
Replies: 7
Views: 717

Re: Vanguard Global all cap tracker 1.69% out on the day

It's possible that dividends and/or capital gains were posted. It often takes a few days for the divvy to be reflected in account returns.

See: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=129142
by prioritarian
Thu Dec 05, 2019 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Term Bonds melting Up
Replies: 7
Views: 969

Re: Long Term Bonds melting Up

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Tue Dec 03, 2019 12:46 pm
LTTs have been in a holding pattern since August.

A hugely volatile holding pattern, but a holding pattern nonetheless.
A recession will likely occur in the next 1-3 years. Very comfortable with my LTT bond tilt.
by prioritarian
Wed Dec 04, 2019 7:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: "The Wealthy Renter" by Alex Avery.
Replies: 192
Views: 20565

Re: "The Wealthy Renter" by Alex Avery.

The Case-Shiller index for SF is up 22% since today in 2015. As ohai mentioned, saying that housing is up 3x is like saying the stock market is up 4x because I got lucky and bought a stock that went up 4x. One of the major points made by the Case-Shiller HPI is that home prices increase only a perc...
by prioritarian
Wed Dec 04, 2019 7:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: "The Wealthy Renter" by Alex Avery.
Replies: 192
Views: 20565

Re: "The Wealthy Renter" by Alex Avery.

Okay. The point is that most people who rent are NOT saving and investing a lot. It’s great you are and your friends are as well. It was pointed out above that we are talking about the average person. The OP did not address the "average person" but rather someone who can afford to view a home as an...
by prioritarian
Tue Dec 03, 2019 6:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds in taxable accounts?
Replies: 25
Views: 2559

Re: Bonds in taxable accounts?

I invest for total return, so when I need money to spend, I simply sell some shares from the investments in my taxable account. In early retirement there is risk that market conditions might cause a retiree to pay the IRS penalty on tax deferred accounts. Bonds would lower this risk. (SEPPs are als...
by prioritarian
Tue Dec 03, 2019 6:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds in taxable accounts?
Replies: 25
Views: 2559

Re: Bonds in taxable accounts?

Does it make sense to have treasury or muni bond index funds in taxable account? Probably depends on their risk tolerance. I have munis in mine but am thinking about moving into treasuries now that my early retirement is getting nearer. PS: I live in a high tax state so treasuries defer some of my ...
by prioritarian
Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do you hold bonds in your portfolio?
Replies: 108
Views: 9352

Re: Why do you hold bonds in your portfolio?

lazyday wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 9:47 pm
That looks like nominal returns for 5 year Treasuries.
Also for equities. (Longer-term treasuries tend to be more negatively correlated during crashes.)
by prioritarian
Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do you hold bonds in your portfolio?
Replies: 108
Views: 9352

Re: Why do you hold bonds in your portfolio?

rascott wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 9:40 pm
If you are just starting out and actively accumulating, there is no need for bonds, IMO.

Risk tolerance is a pretty important need, IMO.
by prioritarian
Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do you hold bonds in your portfolio?
Replies: 108
Views: 9352

Re: Why do you hold bonds in your portfolio?

You shouldn't expect negative correlations, and especially very negative correlations over a long period. Good point. I did not intend to make the point that bonds are always negatively correlated with equities but that during bear markets they have reliably functioned as a hedge. This "flight to s...
by prioritarian
Sun Dec 01, 2019 3:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds in taxable accounts?
Replies: 25
Views: 2559

Re: Bonds in taxable accounts?

schrute wrote:
Sat Nov 30, 2019 2:09 pm
Does it make sense to have treasury or muni bond index funds in taxable account?

If someone is retiring early (or intends to use the taxable for a major purchase) having bonds in taxable can make a lot of sense.
by prioritarian
Sun Dec 01, 2019 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds in taxable accounts?
Replies: 25
Views: 2559

Re: Bonds in taxable accounts?

Readers should keep in mind that many people should not even be using a taxable account at all (for retirement money). In almost all cases, it is best to fill up a work plan(s) and an IRA(s) (often Roth IRA) before putting any retirement money into a taxable account. In other words, since most peop...
by prioritarian
Sun Dec 01, 2019 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TLT vs BND in portfolio.
Replies: 29
Views: 2410

Re: TLT vs BND in portfolio.

1) You have made your portfolio A LOT riskier. You dramatically increased your stock allocation, and you replaced less risky bonds with riskier bonds. Their bond allocation has a higher beta but their portfolio beta could remain low due to the diversification provided by LT bonds (and especially so...
by prioritarian
Sun Dec 01, 2019 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do you hold bonds in your portfolio?
Replies: 108
Views: 9352

Re: Why do you hold bonds in your portfolio?

I hold treasuries in my portfolio because they are negatively correlated with equities.

Image

https://thereformedbroker.com/2014/12/0 ... ese-years/
by prioritarian
Sun Dec 01, 2019 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do you hold bonds in your portfolio?
Replies: 108
Views: 9352

Re: Why do you hold bonds in your portfolio?

I hold LT treasuries in my portfolio because they are very negatively correlated with equities. https://ep60qmdjq8-flywheel.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Screen-Shot-2014-12-09-at-10.20.43-AM.png https://thereformedbroker.com/2014/12/09/long-bonds-still-uncorrelated-after-all-these-years/
by prioritarian
Sun Dec 01, 2019 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Investing?
Replies: 52
Views: 4847

Re: Dividend Investing?

The lure of dividend investing to me is that I can create a sustainable pot of wealth and can live off the dividends and interest income without ever having to sell a share. In this way I am somewhat immune to the ebbs and flows of the market. That's certainly the emotional "lure" but the facts are...
by prioritarian
Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing $140k in cash at 1k per week
Replies: 174
Views: 12821

Re: Investing $140k in cash at 1k per week

The expected return on stocks is always positive. If you believe that, then you should invest it all now. If you don't, why would you invest in stocks at all? In the long run we all have zero returns. PS: Risk is real. Huh? In the long run we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too us...
by prioritarian
Sun Nov 17, 2019 3:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing $140k in cash at 1k per week
Replies: 174
Views: 12821

Re: Investing $140k in cash at 1k per week

magicrat wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:51 pm
The expected return on stocks is always positive. If you believe that, then you should invest it all now. If you don't, why would you invest in stocks at all?
In the long run we all have zero returns.

PS: Risk is real.
by prioritarian
Sun Nov 17, 2019 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Preparing for a down market
Replies: 78
Views: 6911

Re: Preparing for a down market

Lee_WSP wrote:
Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:33 am
The Nikeei bottomed out near an 80% drawdown.
And what happened to bonds?

A three decade (and counting) bull market with GINORMOUS returns.

Image

Just imagine what buying and holding *that* would look like.
by prioritarian
Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Preparing for a down market
Replies: 78
Views: 6911

Re: Preparing for a down market

Gotcha. So what you really mean is that bond yields will continue to go down, and because equity generally goes up this will result in negative correlation? Yeah...bond yields in the USA are an outlier. I expect them to slowly normalize with the rest of the world in the coming decade or so. PS: I d...
by prioritarian
Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Preparing for a down market
Replies: 78
Views: 6911

Re: Preparing for a down market

heyyou wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:17 pm
The bull market has helped me to delay SS to age 70, and SS won't be cut for another 10-15 years.
Given the significant percentage of people in the "boomer" cohort that lack adequate savings, I believe the most likely scenario is that SS benefits will increase in coming decades.
by prioritarian
Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Preparing for a down market
Replies: 78
Views: 6911

Re: Preparing for a down market

In this low-inflation "secular stagnation" environment I expect bonds to continue to be negatively correlated with stocks. Given my ~40% bond allocation with a long-treasury tilt, I expect bear markets to be buffered by counter-cyclical treasury bull markets. Mind sharing more or pointing to reason...
by prioritarian
Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Preparing for a down market
Replies: 78
Views: 6911

Re: Preparing for a down market

In this low-inflation "secular stagnation" environment I expect bonds to continue to be negatively correlated with stocks. Given my ~40% bond allocation with a long-treasury tilt, I expect bear markets to be buffered by counter-cyclical treasury bull markets.
by prioritarian
Fri Nov 15, 2019 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What tools do you use to track your finances?
Replies: 80
Views: 7184

Re: What tools do you use to track your finances?

dumbbunny wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:42 am
LibreOffice Calc
I also refuse to pay microsoft for something available for free (as in beer).
by prioritarian
Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Negative Interest Rates
Replies: 5
Views: 1079

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Negative Interest Rates

A. If interest rates turn significantly negative, I will sell and retire in STYLE!

B. If negative interest rates turn negative but less negative than inflation, I will not sell and retire in STYLE!
by prioritarian
Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds or just use Money Market/ Savings??
Replies: 25
Views: 3753

Re: Bonds or just use Money Market/ Savings??

I invest in intermediate bonds and especially long-term treasuries because their return tends to be negatively correlated with equities during corrections and bears. For me bonds are largely about diversification. I don't expect large returns from bonds. How do you invest in long term treasuries? I...
by prioritarian
Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Picking a VPN -- 2019
Replies: 16
Views: 3656

Re: Picking a VPN -- 2019

Bringing this thread back to life -- looks like NordVPN got hacked. This illustrates the difficulty an outsider has in assessing the security of VPN services, when compared with competitors or just using your ISPs network. https://techcrunch.com/2019/10/21/nordvpn-confirms-it-was-hacked/ Considerin...
by prioritarian
Sun Oct 20, 2019 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $2,467 is a minimum emergency fund
Replies: 36
Views: 8122

Re: $2,467 is a minimum emergency fund

The characteristics of an emergency fund are liquidity at the unknown and surprising time when you need it. Having a substantial MM fund in taxable is a recent occurrence due to interest rates being fairly close to "core CPI", given that more drag seems to be developing I will likely liquidate this...
by prioritarian
Sun Oct 20, 2019 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bank of America declares 'the end of the 60-40' standard portfolio
Replies: 88
Views: 15957

Re: Bank of America declares 'the end of the 60-40' standard portfolio

I choose to ignore AA advice from an institution that essentially went BK during the last recession.
by prioritarian
Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $2,467 is a minimum emergency fund
Replies: 36
Views: 8122

Re: $2,467 is a minimum emergency fund

I not only have no emergency fund but I aggressively limit the amount of cash I have available. I can always use a credit card or withdraw cash from the MM fund in my taxable account with a debit card.
by prioritarian
Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds or just use Money Market/ Savings??
Replies: 25
Views: 3753

Re: Bonds or just use Money Market/ Savings??

I invest in intermediate bonds and especially long-term treasuries because their return tends to be negatively correlated with equities during corrections and bears. For me bonds are largely about diversification. I don't expect large returns from bonds.
by prioritarian
Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wallets [Do you carry a wallet?]
Replies: 102
Views: 9121

Re: Wallets [Do you carry a wallet?]

When google and/or samsung pay is more widely accepted, I will enthusiastically ditch my wallet. Money is a human conceit so it's entirely appropriate that it should be intangible.
by prioritarian
Sat Oct 12, 2019 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retiring on Wellesley
Replies: 75
Views: 18497

Re: Retiring on Wellesley

Doh...you are right. I confused wellington and wellesley. Shows how much I know about active funds. :?
by prioritarian
Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retiring on Wellesley
Replies: 75
Views: 18497

Re:

I think Target Retirement 2005 might be a more diversified choice than Wellesley, with equal simplicity. Right. Maybe a good plan would be to put half in each. The might complement each other well. Another companion choice might be Lifestrategy Moderate. Together gets to about 50/50 stock/bond - Li...
by prioritarian
Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Get Rid of FA. Create Single Fund Retirement Portfolio
Replies: 11
Views: 1708

Re: Get Rid of FA. Create Single Fund Retirement Portfolio

1. Firstly, do my wife and I have enough to retire on? We don’t spend wildly on anything much. We will probably spend more on travel and vacations and are talking about possibly buying a small, used motorhome. We are also considering a move to the Florida panhandle. 2. I am considering a single fun...
by prioritarian
Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Has the bond bubble finally arrived? If so, is anyone doing anything about it?
Replies: 97
Views: 11818

Re: Has the bond bubble finally arrived? If so, is anyone doing anything about it?

The whole point of bonds for me is to de-risk the part of my AA that I expect to provide the majority of my gains (and dividends). For example, during the great recession my Treasury bond holdings went in the opposite direction of equities and provided far, far more diversification than holding cash...