Search found 112 matches

by prioritarian
Wed Jun 03, 2020 3:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does every one here only have 3 funds in their portfolios?
Replies: 131
Views: 8061

Re: Does every one here only have 3 funds in their portfolios?

I use tax loss harvesting and have many duplicative funds/etfs with substantial capital gains that I am unwilling to simplify. For example, I have 6 different total US stock or sp500 index funds. I also have duplication because I switched to Fidelity zero ER funds in my tax-deferred and continue to ...
by prioritarian
Sat May 30, 2020 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries
Replies: 167
Views: 16743

Re: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries

We'll see if the additional upside participation that you determined above would make up for it. This is exactly my goal in creating a test position! Don't you think it would be better to determine it yourself by looking at the underlying positions? It's not even hard, they're just call options 0_o...
by prioritarian
Sat May 30, 2020 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries
Replies: 167
Views: 16743

Re: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries

We'll see if the additional upside participation that you determined above would make up for it. This is exactly my goal in creating a test position! Don't you think it would be better to determine it yourself by looking at the underlying positions? It's not even hard, they're just call options 0_o...
by prioritarian
Sat May 30, 2020 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries
Replies: 167
Views: 16743

Re: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries

It would appear the simpleton BH portfolio has higher returns, with lower volatility and less downside (in fact, no downside thus far). Of course, this doesn't let us see daily performance but I suspect it's much closer than what you show with VASIX. I expect SWAN to perform less robustly than an 8...
by prioritarian
Sat May 30, 2020 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries
Replies: 167
Views: 16743

Re: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries

Steve Reading wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 7:58 am
We'll see if the additional upside participation that you determined above would make up for it.
This is exactly my goal in creating a test position!
by prioritarian
Sat May 30, 2020 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries
Replies: 167
Views: 16743

Re: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries

Why don't you replace that very significant portion with a 20/80 mix of stocks and bonds/cash, where the bond/cash portion is identical to the SWAN bond/cash portion? Such a "product" would have similar downside protection while keeping costs much lower (basically negligible) vs the 0.49 ER of SWAN...
by prioritarian
Fri May 29, 2020 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries
Replies: 167
Views: 16743

Re: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries

If you include the very early 80s, and also look at real returns, the picture is far less positive. Bottom line is if interest rates and / or inflation spikes a leveraged stock/bond portfolio will get pounded. It just doesn't seem like a likely scenario now, but stuff happens. 90% of this fund is n...
by prioritarian
Fri May 29, 2020 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries
Replies: 167
Views: 16743

Re: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries

If you include the very early 80s, and also look at real returns, the picture is far less positive. Bottom line is if interest rates and / or inflation spikes a leveraged stock/bond portfolio will get pounded. It just doesn't seem like a likely scenario now, but stuff happens. 90% of this fund is n...
by prioritarian
Thu May 28, 2020 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]
Replies: 109
Views: 12183

Re: This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]

Roubini is in a constant never ending state of preparation for the next black swan event. Not true at all. Roubini was bullish early following the Great Recession and stayed that way for years. FWIW, I personally have no certainty about our short/medium-term economic future but am relatively sangui...
by prioritarian
Thu May 28, 2020 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries
Replies: 167
Views: 16743

Re: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries

The apparently greater downside protection versus NTSX is something that really interests me. I opened a test position with my dry powder/emergency fund.
by prioritarian
Fri May 22, 2020 5:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 3 Fund Portfolio outside of work retirement plan?
Replies: 5
Views: 409

Re: 3 Fund Portfolio outside of work retirement plan?

I'd like to have a three- or four-fund plan in my taxable investments but taking advantage of TLH and avoiding unnecessary capital gains has made this impossible. I now have 11 ETFs and cannot sell most without incurring unwanted taxes.
by prioritarian
Mon Apr 06, 2020 7:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me understand Bonds please. Example included.
Replies: 21
Views: 1729

Re: Help me understand Bonds please. Example included.

Capital return is from the change in share price (and sometimes also from capital gain distributions). It can be positive or negative in any particular time period, and can be quite volatile compared to income return. Capital return is positive when yields decline, and negative when they increase. ...
by prioritarian
Mon Apr 06, 2020 7:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Totally confused about fixed-income.
Replies: 19
Views: 2132

Re: Totally confused about fixed-income.

Bonds provide increased safety and diversification over cash because they often go up when equities goes down. This is the main reason I hold bonds. I expect the vast majority of my dividends and capital gains to come from equities. Bonds, and in particular, long bonds are a mild form of insurance. ...
by prioritarian
Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Totally confused about fixed-income.
Replies: 19
Views: 2132

Re: Totally confused about fixed-income.

Purchasing a 10-year Treasury with a sub 1.0% yield will likely result in your losing money to inflation over the next decade. The primary reason that I hold longish-duration treasuries is because they provide diversification for my equity positions. I celebrate a lower yield during a bear market. ...
by prioritarian
Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 60/40 Doesn't Cut it Anymore?
Replies: 84
Views: 12523

Re: 60/40 Doesn't Cut it Anymore?

I don't buy bonds for yield. I buy them because they are the cheapest way to buffer equity market corrections/bears. If someone told me that bonds would never lose value (e.g. yields would stay low) I'd be even more motivated to buy them. Sounds like a candidate for a money market. More like a cand...
by prioritarian
Thu Feb 20, 2020 10:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 60/40 Doesn't Cut it Anymore?
Replies: 84
Views: 12523

Re: 60/40 Doesn't Cut it Anymore?

Interest rates "staying down", would make me more likely to hold or increase my bond allocation. Because you like low yields? Low rates are not the friend of the buy and hold bond investor. I don't buy bonds for yield. I buy them because they are the cheapest way to buffer equity market corrections...
by prioritarian
Mon Feb 17, 2020 6:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 60/40 Doesn't Cut it Anymore?
Replies: 84
Views: 12523

Re: 60/40 Doesn't Cut it Anymore?

welderwannabe wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2020 10:06 am
Jeremy Siegel was sure interest rates were going to continue to rise 2 years ago. Now he wants us to stay out of bonds because rates are back down and will stay down.

Interest rates "staying down", would make me more likely to hold or increase my bond allocation.
by prioritarian
Tue Jan 28, 2020 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau
Replies: 179
Views: 14969

Re: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau

Is there any data for global market cap weighted portfolios? We can ignore EM to get more data and just talk about developed markets. Would the SWR be close to 4.00%? Or even higher? This interesting post gives a possible range: https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/fit-in/1200x0/filters%3Aformat%28jp...
by prioritarian
Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau
Replies: 179
Views: 14969

Re: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau

The problem with people writing (and then posting) stuff like this is the paranoid folks among us start dialing things back and all of a sudden you have people using 0.5% for their withdrawal rate. Which is idiotic. They then may impoverish themselves unnecessarily and make their heirs even richer....
by prioritarian
Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau
Replies: 179
Views: 14969

Re: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau

HomerJ wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:18 pm
Why would the OP want to discuss an article from 2010 that has been wrong for the past 10 years?
Because there is a chance my retirement will last ~40 years.
by prioritarian
Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau
Replies: 179
Views: 14969

Re: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau

The big number that is missing from Pfau's paper is the safe withdrawal rate for a globally cap-weighted portfolio . I very much agree agree. A global cap-weighted portfolio SWR would likely make Japan's 0.5% SWR less of a concern. (IMO, this paper is also another argument against 100% single natio...
by prioritarian
Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau
Replies: 179
Views: 14969

Re: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau

MathWizard wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:43 pm
Spain and Ireland had Civil wars .
Spain's civil war ended in '39, not in '57. Ireland's civil war was from '22-'23 not in the early tens. If someone is going to use historical data to make a SWR guesstimate then arguing "this era is different" seems to me to defeat the purpose.
by prioritarian
Mon Jan 27, 2020 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau
Replies: 179
Views: 14969

Re: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau

Hi prioritarian, try searching for the manuscript title; there's a few hits of previous discussions: Thanks for this...maybe the thread can be merged? Edit: As far as I can tell, most of those google hits referenced the paper or mentioned it as a comment but did not focus on it so I've decided agai...
by prioritarian
Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau
Replies: 179
Views: 14969

The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau

Wade Pfau argues persuasively that the 4% SWR is based on nation-specific assumptions: From an international perspective, a 4 percent real withdrawal rate is surprisingly risky. Even with some overly optimistic assumptions, it would have only provided "safety" in 4 of the 17 countries. A fixed asset...
by prioritarian
Mon Jan 20, 2020 8:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Prioritizing investments
Replies: 20
Views: 1745

Re: Prioritizing investments

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Prioritizing_investments I didn't see 529 mentioned here but I assume it'll be before taxable. After reading this, I am actually impressed why/how people are able to have a taxable. To me (someone working at a megacorp), it seems like you can put most of your money i...
by prioritarian
Mon Jan 20, 2020 8:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Not eligible for HSA?
Replies: 7
Views: 698

Re: Not eligible for HSA?

quantAndHold wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 4:44 pm
HSA requires a high DEDUCTIBLE health plan. High out of pocket max is a different thing.

Edit: IRS pub 969 explains what qualifies.
Not all high-deductible health plans come with HSAs. This is something that has to be set up by the insurer.
by prioritarian
Mon Jan 20, 2020 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: indexers buying negative interest bonds
Replies: 46
Views: 5479

Re: indexers buying negative interest bonds

Negative yield is actually relatively uninteresting, market prices fluctuate and its not surprising bondholders would experience negative yields from time to time in the ordinary course. Exactly. For anyone who has an overweight equities AA, bonds mainly function as a diversifying position and/or a...
by prioritarian
Mon Jan 20, 2020 2:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vehicles as a percentage of net worth
Replies: 130
Views: 15968

Re: Vehicles as a percentage of net worth

I personally consider autos to be an enormous and unnecessary expense so am planning on getting rid of my automobile soon. (It's a 2012 Leaf EV bought used.)
by prioritarian
Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not go all aggressive? The risk seems about the same....
Replies: 51
Views: 4529

Re: Why not go all aggressive? The risk seems about the same....

watchnerd wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:59 am
"...looming government regulation."
This is a political statement. I thought these were not allowed here.
by prioritarian
Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What causes a bond bear market? Can it lead to sequence of returns risk?
Replies: 19
Views: 2487

Re: What causes a bond bear market?

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:36 pm
There is no "bond bear market" (a 20% decline) for mainstream bonds. The worst annual return for Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund was -2.66% in 1944. TBM gained +16.00% in 1945.

This is also why concerns of a "bond bubble" really aren't justified.
by prioritarian
Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Those that have an "Anti-Boglehead" investment account, what are your "risky" plays?
Replies: 164
Views: 20176

Re: Those that have an "Anti-Boglehead" investment account, what are your "risky" plays?

I tilt my bonds to long duration treasuries when I believe we are firmly in the late cycle and move back to total bonds in the recovery stage.

I tilt my international equities position to emerging stocks using a low-volatility EM fund (EEMV).

(Overall AA: US eq: 35, Int eq: 30, Bonds: 35.)
by prioritarian
Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 2 fund plan with Fidelity?
Replies: 13
Views: 1249

Re: 2 fund plan with Fidelity?

neo_ny wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:26 pm
Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:17 pm

FSKAX TSM US 0.015 or. FZROX 0.00
Is there a difference between these funds? If they are same/similar why would one pick the fund with the 0.015 over 0.00? Thanks!
The use slightly different indices.
by prioritarian
Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: One-time rollover from IRA to HSA question
Replies: 8
Views: 737

Re: One-time rollover from IRA to HSA question

It would cancel out. If you withdraw $3000 from an IRA, that is $3000 of adjusted gross income. If you then contribute $3000 to an HSA, that reduces your adjusted gross income by $3000, so you break even. I don't think it cancels out because the one time rollover to an HSA is not taxable. https://w...
by prioritarian
Tue Dec 17, 2019 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My 3 buckets: 1 yr cash + 2 yr bond + stocks
Replies: 114
Views: 10643

Re: My 3 buckets: 1 yr cash + 2 yr bond + stocks

I've don't understood the need for multiple buckets because the risk of a total bond fund (or intermediate treasury/muni fund) being unavailable due to economic conditions seems incredibly low. I personally consider the bond portion of my AA to be my emergency fund. Best and worst 1 year rolling ret...
by prioritarian
Sat Dec 14, 2019 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Spend HSA or save it?
Replies: 60
Views: 5010

Re: Spend HSA or save it?

neilpilot wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:53 am
Correct, but in most cases your medical expenses will far exceed your HSA balance after you enter retirement.
For younger people who invest aggressively for decades this may not be the case. (I personally have VFIAX as my sole investment in my HSA)
by prioritarian
Sat Dec 14, 2019 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity on International Markets
Replies: 48
Views: 3747

Re: Fidelity on International Markets

Buying FZILX despite all the bogleheads saying no to Fidelity zero expense funds had worked out great in the past year. I was a proponent of FZILX in some of those discussions and one of the concerns of other bogleheads has materialized. Unlike vanguard funds, FZILX did return a small capital gains...
by prioritarian
Sat Dec 14, 2019 3:17 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Vanguard Global all cap tracker 1.69% out on the day
Replies: 7
Views: 764

Re: Vanguard Global all cap tracker 1.69% out on the day

It's possible that dividends and/or capital gains were posted. It often takes a few days for the divvy to be reflected in account returns.

See: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=129142
by prioritarian
Thu Dec 05, 2019 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Deleted]
Replies: 7
Views: 1008

Re: Long Term Bonds melting Up

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Tue Dec 03, 2019 12:46 pm
LTTs have been in a holding pattern since August.

A hugely volatile holding pattern, but a holding pattern nonetheless.
A recession will likely occur in the next 1-3 years. Very comfortable with my LTT bond tilt.
by prioritarian
Wed Dec 04, 2019 7:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: "The Wealthy Renter" by Alex Avery.
Replies: 191
Views: 21395

Re: "The Wealthy Renter" by Alex Avery.

The Case-Shiller index for SF is up 22% since today in 2015. As ohai mentioned, saying that housing is up 3x is like saying the stock market is up 4x because I got lucky and bought a stock that went up 4x. One of the major points made by the Case-Shiller HPI is that home prices increase only a perc...
by prioritarian
Wed Dec 04, 2019 7:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: "The Wealthy Renter" by Alex Avery.
Replies: 191
Views: 21395

Re: "The Wealthy Renter" by Alex Avery.

Okay. The point is that most people who rent are NOT saving and investing a lot. It’s great you are and your friends are as well. It was pointed out above that we are talking about the average person. The OP did not address the "average person" but rather someone who can afford to view a home as an...
by prioritarian
Tue Dec 03, 2019 6:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds in taxable accounts?
Replies: 25
Views: 2666

Re: Bonds in taxable accounts?

I invest for total return, so when I need money to spend, I simply sell some shares from the investments in my taxable account. In early retirement there is risk that market conditions might cause a retiree to pay the IRS penalty on tax deferred accounts. Bonds would lower this risk. (SEPPs are als...
by prioritarian
Tue Dec 03, 2019 6:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds in taxable accounts?
Replies: 25
Views: 2666

Re: Bonds in taxable accounts?

Does it make sense to have treasury or muni bond index funds in taxable account? Probably depends on their risk tolerance. I have munis in mine but am thinking about moving into treasuries now that my early retirement is getting nearer. PS: I live in a high tax state so treasuries defer some of my ...
by prioritarian
Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do you hold bonds in your portfolio?
Replies: 296
Views: 22587

Re: Why do you hold bonds in your portfolio?

lazyday wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 9:47 pm
That looks like nominal returns for 5 year Treasuries.
Also for equities. (Longer-term treasuries tend to be more negatively correlated during crashes.)
by prioritarian
Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do you hold bonds in your portfolio?
Replies: 296
Views: 22587

Re: Why do you hold bonds in your portfolio?

rascott wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 9:40 pm
If you are just starting out and actively accumulating, there is no need for bonds, IMO.

Risk tolerance is a pretty important need, IMO.
by prioritarian
Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do you hold bonds in your portfolio?
Replies: 296
Views: 22587

Re: Why do you hold bonds in your portfolio?

You shouldn't expect negative correlations, and especially very negative correlations over a long period. Good point. I did not intend to make the point that bonds are always negatively correlated with equities but that during bear markets they have reliably functioned as a hedge. This "flight to s...
by prioritarian
Sun Dec 01, 2019 3:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds in taxable accounts?
Replies: 25
Views: 2666

Re: Bonds in taxable accounts?

schrute wrote:
Sat Nov 30, 2019 2:09 pm
Does it make sense to have treasury or muni bond index funds in taxable account?

If someone is retiring early (or intends to use the taxable for a major purchase) having bonds in taxable can make a lot of sense.