Search found 6732 matches

by Call_Me_Op
Wed Apr 18, 2018 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rise in rates continues - good for fixed income investors and banks
Replies: 6
Views: 1148

Re: Rise in rates continues - good for fixed income investors and banks

Indeed. As a conservative investor, I am pleased that real rates are finally improving.
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Apr 10, 2018 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 14820

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

There is something Larry said that I do not understand. can someone explain. he wrote: "We ended 1981 with the CAPE 10 at 7.8 (an earnings yield of 12.8%). But, as I wrote this, the CAPE 10 stood at 33.4 (an earnings yield of just 3%). Clearly, stock returns have benefited greatly from an expansion ...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Apr 10, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CD market values down after purchase; why?
Replies: 20
Views: 1755

Re: CD market values down after purchase; why?

This question is so basic you will laugh, but I can't find the answer and Schwab lines are busy. Several months ago I purchased CD's through my Schwab brokerage account with yields around 2.5%. When I check my accounts online, the balance shows a significant loss over the purchase price. For exampl...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone tried a sunrise alarm clock?
Replies: 42
Views: 3205

Re: Anyone tried a sunrise alarm clock?

I have had one for many years and I like it. Aside from the fact that the internal clock drifts a lot, I like to be awakened by gradually-increasing light rather than a sudden noise.
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Advocates besides Swedroe & Swensen
Replies: 10
Views: 1165

Re: Treasury Advocates besides Swedroe & Swensen

Why do you need recommendations from academics. It's really quite simple. Bonds have two types of risk - duration and credit. If you want to avoid credit risk, treasuries are your only option (in the strict bond space). At any duration, they are the safest bonds. P.S. For the sticklers, I am lumping...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Very short term investment
Replies: 17
Views: 1131

Re: Very short term investment

Hi, I'd like to have $$ put aside for yearly vacations. Something that I wouldn't touch for a year but it grows, would a CD make the most sense? I see that Vanguard has 1 year CD at 2.1% (https://personal.vanguard.com/us/FixedIncomeHome). Are there any other options? Thanks Kathy Hi Kathy, A CD or ...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Apr 05, 2018 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: JAMA article's health implications for asset allocation
Replies: 43
Views: 3386

Re: JAMA article's health implications for asset allocation

No statistician here - but association is not causation. Maybe, for example, health problems and/or risks cause sudden asset loss (could be many reasons of the health problems) Is it not obvious that one's life savings losing a great deal of its value is very stressful? Is it not also obvious that ...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Apr 05, 2018 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: JAMA article's health implications for asset allocation
Replies: 43
Views: 3386

Re: JAMA article's health implications for asset allocation

Dodec,

We are on the same page. I have long maintained that folks tend to underestimate the importance of the emotional aspect of investing. It is not so much a matter of dollars and sense. It is quality of life, and perhaps also length of life.
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Old Guys Investing
Replies: 21
Views: 3077

Re: Old Guys Investing

I think I remember reading that the least volatile asset allocation historically has been 20/80 stocks/bonds. Can someone back this up? Of course you may not like bond funds but a laddered 5 year CD portfolio would have about the same risk as a 2 year duration treasury bond fund. I don't buy "if yo...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Old Guys Investing
Replies: 21
Views: 3077

Re: Old Guys Investing

Your assumption on 5 year rates seems high. How do you come up with that?
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Apr 01, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps
Replies: 77
Views: 8997

Re: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps

I think Dr. Bernstein means put your living expenses (your spending floor) into a TIPS ladder and you can do what you want with the rest - but he should say that explicitly if that's what he means. What about buying a SPIA or a ladder of SPIA (single premium immediate lifetime annuity) in place of ...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Apr 01, 2018 3:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 4% SWR - planning for worst, hoping for better
Replies: 37
Views: 2143

Re: 4% SWR - planning for worst, hoping for better

I am curious when other people, particularly that retired early with no SS or pension, felt it was safe to spend more. Or maybe used a SWR that was more dynamic. I retired early (<50) more than 15 years ago (no SS or pension) and initially loosely "targeted" a 3.5% withdrawal rate. I say loosely be...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Apr 01, 2018 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?
Replies: 147
Views: 13900

Re: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?

I am talking about the people that have all their money in T bills, not a diversified stock portfolio. Historically speaking if you saved enough you were able to preserve your wealth and beat inflation with essentially no risk of losing money, in the most basic of big bank savings accounts. In the ...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Apr 01, 2018 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps
Replies: 77
Views: 8997

Re: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps

I think Dr. Bernstein means put your living expenses (your spending floor) into a TIPS ladder and you can do what you want with the rest - but he should say that explicitly if that's what he means.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Apr 01, 2018 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?
Replies: 147
Views: 13900

Re: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?

Look at what happened to upper/middle class savers (using MMA’s, CD’s, T bills) since 2008, they have been slaughtered. T bills historically have beat inflation, so what happened? There is a bit of hyperbole here, given that inflation has been very low and most middle-upper income savers have at le...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Apr 01, 2018 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brokered CDs
Replies: 17
Views: 1958

Re: Brokered CDs

When I look at the brokered CD offerings at Vanguard, I note that there is a range of yields for any given maturity. My question is: Why would anyone want any of the lower yielding offers when higher yields are available? The only good reason I can think of would be if they already have more than 2...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Apr 01, 2018 6:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Savings Bond Safety
Replies: 15
Views: 1316

Re: Savings Bond Safety

Sure, but now convince me that banks and brokerages don't have similar language themselves. For example, Ally Bank says: Authorized Transactions: You agree to safeguard your username, password, other security devices or credentials and your Account number(s). If you give someone your Online Banking...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Savings Bond Safety
Replies: 15
Views: 1316

Re: Savings Bond Safety

JoeRetire wrote:
Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:25 am
It doesn't bother me at all.
Because you think it can never happen or because you are OK losing money intended to be safe?
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Advisor Fees
Replies: 10
Views: 744

Re: Vanguard Advisor Fees

Money Market wrote:
Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:09 am
what are the reasons you initially signed up for PAS, and are they still valid now?
This is my question too. If all you wanted was to know what AA you should hold, I could have suggested this for free.
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Brokerage Bonuses
Replies: 2
Views: 325

Brokerage Bonuses

I notice that Fidelity has eliminated cash bonuses for new money deposited into brokerage accounts. Does anyone have ideas as to why?
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Savings Bond Safety
Replies: 15
Views: 1316

Savings Bond Safety

Does the "fact" (not sure it's a fact, but it has been reported here) that the Treasury doesn't reimburse you in the case of stolen (i.e., think identity theft) electronic Savings Bonds bother you at all - or affect your willingness to buy them?
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Short-term Treasury bills while we move and re-allocate portfolio
Replies: 16
Views: 1327

Re: Short-term Treasury bills while we move and re-allocate portfolio

Keeping funds that you plan to deploy in the near future in T-bills is a fine idea - there is nothing safer and more liquid. The easiest way to buy them is to open a brokerage account - such as at Fidelity. You can let them mature into a money market account and then use them to buy other investment...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Mar 31, 2018 6:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: In September I will turn 70. A question on rebalancing
Replies: 6
Views: 969

Re: In September I will turn 70. A question on rebalancing

I would definitely rebalance between equity asset classes. Based upon the stated reason for your equities, I would let them otherwise ride.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Mar 30, 2018 7:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Personal Excess Liability Insurance - Umbrella Insurance
Replies: 55
Views: 3832

Re: Personal Excess Liability Insurance - Umbrella Insurance

To inject a factoid into this discussion, it has been reported (by experienced lawyers, in past threads) that they have never seen a case where the payout went beyond liability limits of insurance policy. I do not know why this would be the case, but this has been said.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Mar 30, 2018 7:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is backtesting worthless? Are there ANY insights you can get from it?
Replies: 69
Views: 4405

Re: Is backtesting worthless? Are there ANY insights you can get from it?

Whenever backtesting is brought up people remind us that the past performance isn't indicative of future results. One needs to be careful in interpreting that statement. Of course it is not useless - but it can be misused. If backtesting is done over a sufficiently long time period - particularly i...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Mar 27, 2018 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard sends out erroneous "not enough money in settlement fund" notice]
Replies: 94
Views: 6119

Re: Concerns with Vanguard

I like "free riding" at Fidelity because as a Boglehead investor I can use any of their no transaction fee index funds, or Blackrocks commission free iShares ETF's, and create Vanguard like products and costs or better. If I do need something Fidelity's customer service is good (meaning they pick u...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Mar 27, 2018 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is anyone buying CDs now instead of I bonds?
Replies: 22
Views: 3317

Re: Is anyone buying CDs now instead of I bonds?

My only concern with IBonds is that (as I understand it) Treasury Direct offers no reimbursement if your bonds are stolen. In contrast, federal law protects bank accounts as long as the fraud is reported within 60 days.
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Mar 26, 2018 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)
Replies: 29
Views: 2373

Re: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)

I am simply pointing-out that based upon long-term historical performance of the US stock market, we have under-performed over the past 20 years. You can place zero weight on that fact - but it is still a fact. I agree it is a fact, and you are correct, I place zero weight on that fact in making in...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Mar 26, 2018 6:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)
Replies: 29
Views: 2373

Re: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)

I am simply pointing-out that based upon long-term historical performance of the US stock market, we have under-performed over the past 20 years. You can place zero weight on that fact - but it is still a fact. I agree it is a fact, and you are correct, I place zero weight on that fact in making in...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Mar 25, 2018 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the likely future value of $200K in 30 years versus what Fidelity thinks?
Replies: 28
Views: 3685

Re: What is the likely future value of $200K in 30 years versus what Fidelity thinks?

I tried the Planning calculator on Fidelity and for where I'm trending the "substantially below average" return would yield $850K where the average return would yield $2.5M in 30 years. They don't disclose what the annual interest is in these cases (but can figure out). Also, it assumes I contribut...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Mar 25, 2018 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on rising rate 5-year CD
Replies: 6
Views: 518

Re: Thoughts on rising rate 5-year CD

Is this a direct CD or brokered?
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Mar 25, 2018 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sequence of Return Risk for Retirees - Consuello Mack / WealthTrack
Replies: 18
Views: 1835

Re: Sequence of Return Risk for Retirees - Consuello Mack / WealthTrack

The example he used (3 brothers) was based upon a very high withdrawal rate that nobody should use (6%), and 100% equities (no cushion). It was IMO designed for impact, and not realistic. Nevertheless, I enjoy watching her show.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Mar 25, 2018 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)
Replies: 29
Views: 2373

Re: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)

If one were to forget about the CAPE Ratio and most other tools for predicting future equity returns and look at the US stock market performance over the past 20 years compared to the longer-term (say since 1972) they will find that the CAGR from 1972-2018 was 10.4%, but the CAGR from 1998-2018 (la...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Mar 25, 2018 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Issue With Door Knob
Replies: 14
Views: 1163

Re: Issue With Door Knob

When I first read the title of the thread, I thought is was related to OCD.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Mar 25, 2018 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)
Replies: 29
Views: 2373

Re: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)

What's nice about that figure is you can see that we are below the trend line. And you can see that the latest bull market is simply digging us out of a hole produced by the last couple of bear markets. As of Jan 2018 we were (quite a bit) above the historic trend line. The Feb/Mar pullback has sim...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Mar 25, 2018 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)
Replies: 29
Views: 2373

Re: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)

What's nice about that figure is you can see that we are below the trend line. We were below the trendline in 2012 (date of figure). Figure updated would show that we are significantly ABOVE trendline I assume. I make an error in time - how fallible of me. - The Lonely Squire of Gothos (From the or...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Mar 25, 2018 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Protecting principal with no risk: seeking validation Im not crazy or stupid
Replies: 31
Views: 3547

Re: Protecting principal with no risk: seeking validation Im not crazy or stupid

I am also very conservative. But I adjust my equity allocation down to a level where I am comfortable. That has never been at zero, but I don't fault you for doing what you did.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Mar 25, 2018 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)
Replies: 29
Views: 2373

Re: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)

What's nice about that figure is you can see that we are below the trend line. And you can see that the latest bull market is simply digging us out of a hole produced by the last couple of bear markets.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Mar 25, 2018 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invests money, 3 days later the market tanks.
Replies: 58
Views: 7110

Re: Invests money, 3 days later the market tanks.

jackhensy wrote:
Sat Mar 24, 2018 11:13 pm
I invested $6500 on 3-20-18. Then the next day Jerome Powell raises interest rates. The stock market tanks on 3-23-18 and I lose $3,500.
Non-sequitur - your facts are uncoordinated.

-Nomad
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Mar 25, 2018 6:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump Sum in Taxable Account - Invest all at once or dollar cost average?
Replies: 42
Views: 1959

Re: Lump Sum in Taxable Account - Invest all at once or dollar cost average?

Dollar cost averaging never makes sense and is purely an emotional reaction. Since when is emotion unimportant? I think it makes a lot of sense - for that very reason. It is also not correct to say it "never makes sense" financially. It does about 40% of the time. Would you cash out and DCA your $1...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Mar 25, 2018 6:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anxious about age, career, and housing costs
Replies: 60
Views: 5286

Re: Anxious about age, career, and housing costs

A house should not be viewed in terms of its investment potential; it is a lifestyle choice. Having a paid-off house, where you have a great deal of control over your environment and can never be evicted is a great feeling. If (like me) you like to not be bothered when at home and you like to feel s...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Mar 25, 2018 6:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)
Replies: 29
Views: 2373

Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)

If one were to forget about the CAPE Ratio and most other tools for predicting future equity returns and look at the US stock market performance over the past 20 years compared to the longer-term (say since 1972) they will find that the CAGR from 1972-2018 was 10.4%, but the CAGR from 1998-2018 (las...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Mar 24, 2018 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Effect of interest rates on my bond funds
Replies: 46
Views: 3808

Re: Effect of interest rates on my bond funds

However, the coming rate increases are already priced in. If pricing was efficient the yield on the 10 year TRSY would be way over 3%. I don't think the market believes the rate increases will actually happen. That doesn't imply inefficiency. An efficient market is one where information is widely d...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Mar 23, 2018 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m looking for a word...
Replies: 114
Views: 9231

Re: I’m looking for a word...

The word "effect" seems to be the general term.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Losing friends/family when wealthy
Replies: 118
Views: 10211

Re: Losing friends/family when wealthy

I am in my late 30's and have experiencing some hostility from friends/family due to what I perceive as jealousy. I drive modest vehicles and live in a small home. My job pays well working for the government, but does not appear to have such perception of high status. For most of my adult life, me ...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump Sum in Taxable Account - Invest all at once or dollar cost average?
Replies: 42
Views: 1959

Re: Lump Sum in Taxable Account - Invest all at once or dollar cost average?

MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 5:05 pm
Dollar cost averaging never makes sense and is purely an emotional reaction.
Since when is emotion unimportant? I think it makes a lot of sense - for that very reason. It is also not correct to say it "never makes sense" financially. It does about 40% of the time.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What Budget? Do you keep one?
Replies: 116
Views: 7088

Re: What Budget? Do you keep one?

I loosely track my budget but do not "stick" one religiously. I have noticed that it keeps getting bigger - my personal inflation.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering a CD ladder
Replies: 36
Views: 4714

Re: Considering a CD ladder

For non-brokered CDs, return of principal prior to maturity typically involves a penalty of some amount of interest. Those conditions are known at purchase time and are not dependent on interest rates. People that want that kind of behavior use CDs. It's a good point that when people refer to "CDs"...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Mar 22, 2018 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering a CD ladder
Replies: 36
Views: 4714

Re: Considering a CD ladder

A CD would not have lost any principle for sure. Bonds do not lose principal either. They lose market value when rates increase - not principal. A rolling CD ladder would also lose market value. There is no difference. Market value is meaningless if you hold to maturity. Its like saying you lose mo...