Search found 6763 matches

by Call_Me_Op
Tue Jun 19, 2018 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein's 8:4:5:3 ratio
Replies: 21
Views: 2569

Re: Bill Bernstein's 8:4:5:3 ratio

When you have been investing for a while, you realize that matching specific ratios is really not important. If I like a set of risky asset classes, I like to keep things simple and divide equally among them.
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Jun 19, 2018 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 64
Views: 4690

Re: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

Don't know how you can make any (real) money without risking some loss.
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Jun 19, 2018 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Shorting Amazon
Replies: 45
Views: 3410

Re: Shorting Amazon

I am getting the itch to short Amazon. I have been watching it for a while and now that it has crossed 1700, I don't really see much upside in that stock. Interesting that you think you can predict the direction of a specific stock - when nobody else seems able to do so with any degree of reliabili...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jun 17, 2018 5:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CD ladders vs bond funds
Replies: 5
Views: 786

Re: CD ladders vs bond funds

Sounds like a lot of aggravation for little if any benefit - unless perhaps if you are dealing with 6+ figures.
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bogleheads smarter than the bond market?
Replies: 36
Views: 3352

Re: Are Bogleheads smarter than the bond market?

There is a lot of talk recently about shifting to shorter duration bonds because interest rates are going up. Do we know something that is not already known by everyone else buying and selling bonds? Do we have information not already priced into the bonds? "The market is smarter than you are" was ...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What do brokerages get out of incentives?
Replies: 7
Views: 678

Re: What do brokerages get out of incentives?

I have accounts with two brokerages, but no real preference. About once a year, they offer me a significant incentive to transfer stock to them. So I move stocks around. It takes 10 minutes and it very profitable. (Well, the return on capital is not big, but in terms of $/hour...) As they must know...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Jun 14, 2018 6:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Maintaining TIAA Traditional after moving substantial holdings to Vanguard
Replies: 2
Views: 272

Re: Maintaining TIAA Traditional after moving substantial holdings to Vanguard

Retiring after years of contributions to TIAA, we’ve noticed that we’re paying a lot more in expense ratios than we would if we were invested in Vanguard. So we’re thinking about moving some of ours funds to Vanguard but retaining with TIAA, in each account, the Traditional holdings plus some cushi...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 75
Views: 4930

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

The bond returns extrapolate to about zero real in the 2000's. Maybe Buffett is right. But the point is that keeping ahold of your assets at low risk is still a necessary part of wealth management. Fortunately people get to make a choice anywhere along that continuum they want to go. Indeed. I hold...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 75
Views: 4930

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

The obvious take away is not to assume more than 2% real for bonds - which you should not be assuming anyway.
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing will fail investors in next decade
Replies: 57
Views: 8834

Re: The end of indexing?

I am sticking to my plan.
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When everyone invests passively...
Replies: 10
Views: 1635

Re: When everyone invests passively...

Question is irrelevant, since this will never happen. The system is self-correcting. As more people index, exploitable inefficiencies increase, which draws investors into active trading
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Small Caps Outperform?
Replies: 61
Views: 3856

Re: Do Small Caps Outperform?

Why do people keep saying that small cap overperforms large cap? The small cap universe has lost to the large cap universe since the establishment of the Russell 2000 index. (I understand that the S&P 500 is not exactly the large cap universe, but I tried comparing the CRSP US Large Cap index to th...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Jun 11, 2018 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 141
Views: 20189

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

AlphaLess wrote:
Sat Jun 09, 2018 2:55 am
One criticism I have of Buffet is that he hoards cash.
Keeping that cash uninvested is basically a foregone opportunity.
Simply: it is a drag on performance.
Seems to have worked-out OK for him.
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Strategy for a prolonged bear market
Replies: 65
Views: 5310

Re: Strategy for a prolonged bear market

In the event of a prolonged bear market (define the timeframe as you will), does your Investment Policy Statement (IPS) contain a strategy beyond "stay the course" and "rebalance by directing funds to the decreased asset"? I'm just curious if other Bogleheads have adopted lesser discussed strategie...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jun 10, 2018 6:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 141
Views: 20189

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

Perhaps it would help if you do not consider bonds an investment, but instead, protection against catastrophic loss. If you really want to invest all of your money in vehicles having high expected return, you need to accept the possibility of catastrophic loss. I think of catastrophic loss like bro...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Jun 08, 2018 6:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 141
Views: 20189

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

Perhaps it would help if you do not consider bonds an investment, but instead, protection against catastrophic loss. If you really want to invest all of your money in vehicles having high expected return, you need to accept the possibility of catastrophic loss. I think of catastrophic loss like bro...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Jun 08, 2018 6:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $1M Question
Replies: 38
Views: 4812

Re: $1M Question

Volumeusa wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 12:56 am
With utmost sincerity, a dummy with $12k (me) walks up to you and asks:

Via investing of any kind, what can I do to make $1M in one year from now?
Surely you must be joking Mr. Feynman.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Jun 08, 2018 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Funds
Replies: 7
Views: 765

Re: Bond Funds

Have you looked into brokered CDs and US treasuries?
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Jun 07, 2018 7:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fixed Income investments too conservative?
Replies: 59
Views: 3702

Re: Fixed Income investments too conservative?

Why do you need all of those funds? They make it seem like you are much more diversified than you actually are. This is a classic example of unnecessary complexity.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu May 31, 2018 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury yields drop, CD yields hold steady
Replies: 16
Views: 2412

Re: Treasury yields drop, CD yields hold steady

It is not surprising that brokered CDs did not experience the same rate drop as treasuries. Treasuries are highly liquid and thus would participate in a "flight to quality." One would not use brokered CDs to participate in such a situation.
by Call_Me_Op
Mon May 28, 2018 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman on Market Timing Discussion Thread
Replies: 22
Views: 2817

Re: Paul Merriman on Market Timing Discussion Thread

snarlyjack wrote:
Mon May 28, 2018 8:55 am
Paul,

Here is the smartest & most successful investor I know.
This is a very interesting video.
Please enjoy it...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... zw9IYR_5gw
Thanks. Enjoyed it very much.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun May 27, 2018 6:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Living on Your Investments? What Happens When a Bear Market Hits?
Replies: 53
Views: 7460

Re: Living on Your Investments? What Happens When a Bear Market Hits?

Just came across this article and thought he does make a good point, especially considering we are well overdue for a recession.. stocks have been very overvalued for a while and I having really been sure what to do, what do you guys think of his advice? Is anyone doing something similiar? https://...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri May 25, 2018 5:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How safe are our funds in online platforms?
Replies: 15
Views: 1992

Re: How safe are our funds in online platforms?

And yet a lot of people laugh at people who want to keep some not insignificant portion of their assets offline (think physical gold at 10 to 25% of portfolio). Have fun getting your 1's and 0's back after a hacker halfway around the world has stolen them off a server that is a quarter of the way a...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed May 23, 2018 7:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman on Market Timing Discussion Thread
Replies: 22
Views: 2817

Re: Paul Merriman on Market Timing Discussion Thread

While Merriman admits that half of his money is market-timed, he does not recommend that for other investors. He recommends a split between stocks and (high-quality) bonds, with the stocks equal-weighted among a number of "asset classes." He uses long-term historical risk and return of the asset cla...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun May 20, 2018 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 141
Views: 20189

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

During this year's annual Berkshire Hathaway meeting, Buffett said: "Bonds are a terrible investment at anywhere near current yields.” He continued, “The only time bonds were interesting was in the early to mid-1980’s" So what should we invest in besides stocks? Perhaps it would help if you do not ...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed May 16, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Friend says "Stock market will crash, invest in silver" - thoughts?
Replies: 127
Views: 8140

Re: Friend says "Stock market will crash, invest in silver" - thoughts?

SmilerUK wrote:
Wed May 16, 2018 3:57 am
Noob question :-)

Should I be worried?
Yes - about the fact that you think he can predict the future.
by Call_Me_Op
Mon May 14, 2018 6:01 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: The front page is ugly
Replies: 140
Views: 11564

Re: The front page is ugly

I don't think cosmetics should be a big concern. I like the static pages. I cannot tolerate moving images on the screen, so I request that if any changes are made, moving images be avoided.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun May 06, 2018 5:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.
Replies: 25
Views: 4914

Re: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

You can solve this by using index funds.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Apr 29, 2018 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why even hold bonds?
Replies: 19
Views: 2326

Re: Why even hold bonds?

I'm a bit confused. As far as I know, bonds generally yield somewhere around 0% return after inflation, and there are risks associated with bonds that shouldn't be overlooked. Aren't there investments that are about as volatile as bonds and still offer the same or higher returns? On the top of my h...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unprecedented Event
Replies: 67
Views: 9186

Re: Unprecedented Event

pkcrafter wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:45 pm
Do you believe the U.S. stock market could experience an unprecedented event?
Of course. And you portfolio should be positioned in such a way that you don't care.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Apr 18, 2018 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rise in rates continues - good for fixed income investors and banks
Replies: 6
Views: 1368

Re: Rise in rates continues - good for fixed income investors and banks

Indeed. As a conservative investor, I am pleased that real rates are finally improving.
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Apr 10, 2018 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 16124

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

There is something Larry said that I do not understand. can someone explain. he wrote: "We ended 1981 with the CAPE 10 at 7.8 (an earnings yield of 12.8%). But, as I wrote this, the CAPE 10 stood at 33.4 (an earnings yield of just 3%). Clearly, stock returns have benefited greatly from an expansion ...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Apr 10, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CD market values down after purchase; why?
Replies: 20
Views: 2124

Re: CD market values down after purchase; why?

This question is so basic you will laugh, but I can't find the answer and Schwab lines are busy. Several months ago I purchased CD's through my Schwab brokerage account with yields around 2.5%. When I check my accounts online, the balance shows a significant loss over the purchase price. For exampl...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone tried a sunrise alarm clock?
Replies: 42
Views: 3373

Re: Anyone tried a sunrise alarm clock?

I have had one for many years and I like it. Aside from the fact that the internal clock drifts a lot, I like to be awakened by gradually-increasing light rather than a sudden noise.
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Advocates besides Swedroe & Swensen
Replies: 10
Views: 1268

Re: Treasury Advocates besides Swedroe & Swensen

Why do you need recommendations from academics. It's really quite simple. Bonds have two types of risk - duration and credit. If you want to avoid credit risk, treasuries are your only option (in the strict bond space). At any duration, they are the safest bonds. P.S. For the sticklers, I am lumping...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Very short term investment
Replies: 17
Views: 1244

Re: Very short term investment

Hi, I'd like to have $$ put aside for yearly vacations. Something that I wouldn't touch for a year but it grows, would a CD make the most sense? I see that Vanguard has 1 year CD at 2.1% (https://personal.vanguard.com/us/FixedIncomeHome). Are there any other options? Thanks Kathy Hi Kathy, A CD or ...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Apr 05, 2018 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: JAMA article's health implications for asset allocation
Replies: 43
Views: 3712

Re: JAMA article's health implications for asset allocation

No statistician here - but association is not causation. Maybe, for example, health problems and/or risks cause sudden asset loss (could be many reasons of the health problems) Is it not obvious that one's life savings losing a great deal of its value is very stressful? Is it not also obvious that ...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Apr 05, 2018 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: JAMA article's health implications for asset allocation
Replies: 43
Views: 3712

Re: JAMA article's health implications for asset allocation

Dodec,

We are on the same page. I have long maintained that folks tend to underestimate the importance of the emotional aspect of investing. It is not so much a matter of dollars and sense. It is quality of life, and perhaps also length of life.
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Old Guys Investing
Replies: 21
Views: 3232

Re: Old Guys Investing

I think I remember reading that the least volatile asset allocation historically has been 20/80 stocks/bonds. Can someone back this up? Of course you may not like bond funds but a laddered 5 year CD portfolio would have about the same risk as a 2 year duration treasury bond fund. I don't buy "if yo...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Old Guys Investing
Replies: 21
Views: 3232

Re: Old Guys Investing

Your assumption on 5 year rates seems high. How do you come up with that?
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Apr 01, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps
Replies: 77
Views: 9492

Re: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps

I think Dr. Bernstein means put your living expenses (your spending floor) into a TIPS ladder and you can do what you want with the rest - but he should say that explicitly if that's what he means. What about buying a SPIA or a ladder of SPIA (single premium immediate lifetime annuity) in place of ...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Apr 01, 2018 3:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 4% SWR - planning for worst, hoping for better
Replies: 37
Views: 2303

Re: 4% SWR - planning for worst, hoping for better

I am curious when other people, particularly that retired early with no SS or pension, felt it was safe to spend more. Or maybe used a SWR that was more dynamic. I retired early (<50) more than 15 years ago (no SS or pension) and initially loosely "targeted" a 3.5% withdrawal rate. I say loosely be...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Apr 01, 2018 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?
Replies: 148
Views: 15208

Re: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?

I am talking about the people that have all their money in T bills, not a diversified stock portfolio. Historically speaking if you saved enough you were able to preserve your wealth and beat inflation with essentially no risk of losing money, in the most basic of big bank savings accounts. In the ...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Apr 01, 2018 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps
Replies: 77
Views: 9492

Re: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps

I think Dr. Bernstein means put your living expenses (your spending floor) into a TIPS ladder and you can do what you want with the rest - but he should say that explicitly if that's what he means.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Apr 01, 2018 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?
Replies: 148
Views: 15208

Re: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?

Look at what happened to upper/middle class savers (using MMA’s, CD’s, T bills) since 2008, they have been slaughtered. T bills historically have beat inflation, so what happened? There is a bit of hyperbole here, given that inflation has been very low and most middle-upper income savers have at le...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Apr 01, 2018 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brokered CDs
Replies: 17
Views: 2256

Re: Brokered CDs

When I look at the brokered CD offerings at Vanguard, I note that there is a range of yields for any given maturity. My question is: Why would anyone want any of the lower yielding offers when higher yields are available? The only good reason I can think of would be if they already have more than 2...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Apr 01, 2018 6:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Savings Bond Safety
Replies: 15
Views: 1499

Re: Savings Bond Safety

Sure, but now convince me that banks and brokerages don't have similar language themselves. For example, Ally Bank says: Authorized Transactions: You agree to safeguard your username, password, other security devices or credentials and your Account number(s). If you give someone your Online Banking...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Savings Bond Safety
Replies: 15
Views: 1499

Re: Savings Bond Safety

JoeRetire wrote:
Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:25 am
It doesn't bother me at all.
Because you think it can never happen or because you are OK losing money intended to be safe?
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Advisor Fees
Replies: 10
Views: 820

Re: Vanguard Advisor Fees

Money Market wrote:
Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:09 am
what are the reasons you initially signed up for PAS, and are they still valid now?
This is my question too. If all you wanted was to know what AA you should hold, I could have suggested this for free.