Search found 6524 matches

by Call_Me_Op
Sat Dec 09, 2017 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying to nail down asset allocation for second bucket
Replies: 43
Views: 1441

Re: Trying to nail down asset allocation for second bucket

I don't think mentally separating the portfolio into a "safe" and a future bucket helps in any way to understand the best plan. What is required is a model that looks at both the return and the risk of different asset allocations under a varying withdrawal rate and a varying asset allocation. The w...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying to nail down asset allocation for second bucket
Replies: 43
Views: 1441

Re: Trying to nail down asset allocation for second bucket

I view this type of AA as a "risk barbell." It consists of very low risk assets and very high risk assets. One of its strengths is the risk level of the portfolio is very obvious. If you are more conservative (like me), the risk "bucket" will be less than 50% of the portfolio.
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying to nail down asset allocation for second bucket
Replies: 43
Views: 1441

Re: Trying to nail down asset allocation for second bucket

I have a similar AA. In bucket 1 I have safe fixed income, including cash. In bucket 2, it's all equities, broadly diversified, index funds and ETFs.
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Dec 09, 2017 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds ever better than a Fund?
Replies: 10
Views: 1092

Re: Are Bonds ever better than a Fund?

The only bonds I would buy as individual issues are treasuries because there is essentially zero default risk. Even with treasuries, a fund is an option but I would prefer it be an index fund.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 50
Views: 3535

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

21,312
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is SEC Yield a good way to pick a bond fund?
Replies: 9
Views: 1102

Re: Is SEC Yield a good way to pick a bond fund?

The answer to the question "Is SEC yield a good way to pick a bond fund" is NO. There are many considerations. Yield is generally proportional to risk. One should decide what types of bonds they want to hold and select a low-cost diversified fund that holds these types of securities.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Dec 06, 2017 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Want to sell my Bitcoin, but when?
Replies: 90
Views: 8197

Re: Want to sell my Bitcoin, but when?

David Jay wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 6:50 pm
Call_Me_Op wrote:
Sun Dec 03, 2017 8:28 am
Interesting. A young coworker of mine purchased $7k in Bitcoin in (I believe) 2014 and it is now worth close to $250k. As far as I know, he plans to let it ride.

Gambling does, on occasion, pay off.
A reminder that it hasn't paid off yet...
It has for some - those who have sold recently.
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Want to sell my Bitcoin, but when?
Replies: 90
Views: 8197

Re: Want to sell my Bitcoin, but when?

I find it interesting that everyone holding bitcoins is valuing the bitcoins in terms of dollars and wondering how many dollars they will get when they sell. That in itself tells you a lot.

On the flip side, I have not heard anyone with a lot of cash wondering how many bitcoins their cash is worth.
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Dec 04, 2017 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Craig Rowland not blogging anymore on Permanent Portfolio.
Replies: 30
Views: 4576

Re: Craig Rowland not blogging anymore on Permanent Portfolio.

I've had some recent contact with Craig. I didn't ask him specifically about his blogging--we had lots more fun things to talk about--but suffice it to say that he's a busy young guy with bigger fish to fry than blogging about a portfolio that hasn't changed composition in four decades. Yes, it has...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Dec 03, 2017 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Want to sell my Bitcoin, but when?
Replies: 90
Views: 8197

Re: Want to sell my Bitcoin, but when?

Interesting. A young coworker of mine purchased $7k in Bitcoin in (I believe) 2014 and it is now worth close to $250k. As far as I know, he plans to let it ride.

Gambling does, on occasion, pay off.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Dec 01, 2017 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Diversification: A Reason to Stay the Course With Your High-Quality Bond Fund."
Replies: 21
Views: 3540

Re: "Diversification: A Reason to Stay the Course With Your High-Quality Bond Fund."

While still a diversifier, and I still own some bond funds and blended funds, the diversification effect will be much more muted at current rates http://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart There is only so much economic downturn cushion you are going to get with the 10 y...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Nov 30, 2017 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Edward Jones trap
Replies: 45
Views: 5221

Re: Edward Jones trap

magicrat wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:41 am
Stay out of it unless they ask you for advice. Not your life, not your problem.
Strongly agree. You will manage to get them to change custodian right before the next major melt-down and you will be blamed for their losses. Been there, never fully recovered the relationship.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Nov 30, 2017 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Are Riskier Than People Think
Replies: 137
Views: 11809

Re: Bonds Are Riskier Than People Think

I've heard it quoted on here that you should keep the money you can't afford to lose in bonds.... I think many people say "bonds" when they are referring to the fixed income side of your portfolio. Fixed income assets would include bonds and CDs, maybe even some actual cash or money market although...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Nov 30, 2017 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What can we learn from BitCoin’s surge?
Replies: 37
Views: 3091

Re: What can we learn from BitCoin’s surge?

White Coat Investor wrote:
Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:23 am
I worried it was a bubble when I saw Allan Roth buy some.

I'll know it's a bubble when Taylor Larimore buys some. That's your indication to sell.
That's about as likely as Bogle himself buying some. Ain't gonna happen.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Nov 30, 2017 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Are Riskier Than People Think
Replies: 137
Views: 11809

Re: Bonds Are Riskier Than People Think

Keep in mind your CD not only has risk, it is a virtually guaranteed risk that you will lose to inflation. Use CDs for money needed in the near term. It is not an investment vehicle. I do not agree with this - in the sense that CD rates are comparable to rates on bonds with the same maturity. So an...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Going from 100% U.S stocks to 30% international?
Replies: 36
Views: 3009

Re: Going from 100% U.S stocks to 30% international?

Hello everyone, at age 31 it's almost my 5th year investing; thanks for everyone's help here. ---------------------------------- I am currently 100% U.S stocks; I was indecisive for a couple years about international but after reading more and more I feel safer having 30% of my stocks as internatio...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?
Replies: 147
Views: 15024

Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

denovo wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:07 am
Unsolicited financial advice is a good way to annoy people.
or worse.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 159
Views: 14171

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

I, for one, don't disagree one bit! But is there any reason to think that Mr. Bogle's opinion will impact anyone's decisionmaking on this one way or the other? :D E.T.A.--I'm guessing that the Venn diagram of Bogle-believers/indexers and bitcoin aficionados probably has little overlap... Yes, becau...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Gold?
Replies: 64
Views: 3801

Re: Gold?

Hyperinflation is happening in Venezuela right now. Gold does not appear to be helping anybody there. Truth is if a Venezuelan held gold, that gold would be maintaining its buying power through the hyperinflation. The value of the gold in terms of venezuelan currency would be skyrocketing. Wouldn't...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: quiet natural gas generators
Replies: 38
Views: 2157

Re: quiet natural gas generators

I'm thinking about getting a natural gas generator, after multiple days power failures in the last few years in my area. I have heard that generators can be quite noisy, one post said like a lawn mover, which I assume means a gasoline powered lawn mower. I sure wouldn't want to be listening to that...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Gold?
Replies: 64
Views: 3801

Re: Gold?

livesoft wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 2:47 pm
Hyperinflation is happening in Venezuela right now. Gold does not appear to be helping anybody there.
Truth is if a Venezuelan held gold, that gold would be maintaining its buying power through the hyperinflation. The value of the gold in terms of venezuelan currency would be skyrocketing.
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why not take Social Security at 62
Replies: 334
Views: 25930

Re: Why not take Social Security at 62

That's a life expectancy at birth, it's irrelevant to someone who has already lived to 62. You want the a expectancy at 62. so how would you know expectancy at 62? I'd say, it's still the same at birth. No, once you make it to a ripe old age (like 62) and are way beyond infant mortality and other i...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Are Riskier Than People Think
Replies: 137
Views: 11809

Re: Bonds Are Riskier Than People Think

Keep in mind your CD not only has risk, it is a virtually guaranteed risk that you will lose to inflation. Use CDs for money needed in the near term. It is not an investment vehicle. I do not agree with this - in the sense that CD rates are comparable to rates on bonds with the same maturity. So an...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Nov 27, 2017 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Gold?
Replies: 64
Views: 3801

Re: Gold?

..., but to reduce the loss when something bad happens. I am still trying to understand how gold helps "when something bad happens." Bad things have happened to people around the world and gold would have been no help to them even if they had gold, so I'm skeptical that gold will help in the US if ...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Nov 25, 2017 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond fund duration(s) in retirement
Replies: 16
Views: 1333

Re: Bond fund duration(s) in retirement

jefmafnl wrote:
Sat Nov 25, 2017 9:55 am
Ron Scott,
with your 30/40/30, do you take withdrawals proportionately from all three?

J
I hope not, as that sort-of defeats the purpose.
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Nov 25, 2017 8:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why not take Social Security at 62
Replies: 334
Views: 25930

Re: Why not take Social Security at 62

Most of what I find on the web says to wait at least until age 67 (my full benefit age). I am having a difficult time making the math justify most of what I read, and as is typical for me it seems, it seems like I will buck the trend and take Social Security at 62, My 2 cents. Take it at 62. Most p...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Nov 24, 2017 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 121
Views: 9621

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

Call me op, Have you ever used Monte Carlo simulation? I’ve found it very enlightening. The expected draw down is the output. By necessity one has to have inputs with some estimation of expected returns. How does one rationally choose a basic stock bond split much less tilts without some estimate o...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard on 2018
Replies: 11
Views: 2267

Re: Vanguard on 2018

I found Jack's comments on ETF's interesting, where he compared index funds with ETF's. I assume that he was comparing all index funds versus all ETF's - not comparing by asset class. His comparison is really apples versus oranges.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Nov 23, 2017 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds or Money Market?
Replies: 13
Views: 1722

Re: Bonds or Money Market?

Rather than money market funds, I would favor high-quality short-term bonds. I do not see the big advantage of the stable NAV and I think it actually introduces new risks.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Nov 23, 2017 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 121
Views: 9621

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

Call me op, It’s all linked together though. How much one tilts affects the choice of bond allocation. A person may decide on a reasonable expected return from a portfolio. He can then attempt to generate a portfolio with that expected return. If he does so with a TSM type portfolio, he will need m...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Nov 23, 2017 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 121
Views: 9621

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

Taylor, Totally agree. Not only are high quality bonds the best protection, they are the cheapest as well. Everything else I discuss is decreasing marginal benefit and increasing marginal cost. This is especially true since the allocations are all quite small. Dave Yes, but we are not comparing sto...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Nov 23, 2017 7:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why not take Social Security at 62
Replies: 334
Views: 25930

Re: Why not take Social Security at 62

The OP's analysis is overly simplistic. You cannot just look at total dollars received. A dollar received today has an expected value in 10 years that is greater than a dollar received 5 years from now. So you should account for the fact that if you take social security early but do not need the mo...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Nov 21, 2017 7:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why not take Social Security at 62
Replies: 334
Views: 25930

Re: Why not take Social Security at 62

The OP's analysis is overly simplistic. You cannot just look at total dollars received. A dollar received today has an expected value in 10 years that is greater than a dollar received 5 years from now. So you should account for the fact that if you take social security early but do not need the mon...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 155
Views: 13805

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

Stocks are much riskier than bonds. This statement summarizes the situation.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AAII Discontinues Model Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1
Views: 279

Re: AAII Discontinues Model Fund Portfolio

I do not follow AAII, but I don't think 14 years is long enough to evaluate a strategy.
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Nov 14, 2017 7:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Morningstar: Cognitive decline in aging. A strong case for portfolio simplification?
Replies: 98
Views: 7979

Re: Morningstar: Cognitive decline in aging. A strong case for portfolio simplification?

It is a shame that the threat of cognitive decline pushes us toward consolidation, while at the same time increasing risk of identity theft increases the risk (of catastrophic loss) associated with consolidation of accounts.
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Nov 14, 2017 7:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dumb Question on Water Heater
Replies: 9
Views: 1202

Re: Dumb Question on Water Heater

Right - thanks.
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Nov 13, 2017 7:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dumb Question on Water Heater
Replies: 9
Views: 1202

Re: Dumb Question on Water Heater

I believe that indirect water heaters only contain a heat exchange coil and a fluid in the boiler circulates through that to heater water in the tank. So it seems there is no need for a pilot.
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dumb Question on Water Heater
Replies: 9
Views: 1202

Re: Dumb Question on Water Heater

I do not think this type of boiler has an ignition but would like verification.
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dumb Question on Water Heater
Replies: 9
Views: 1202

Dumb Question on Water Heater

I have a Superstor Indirect Fired Water Heater. Does anyone know if this type of water heater has a pilot that needs to be re-lit after the gas has been shut off for a period of time?
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Losing all of your savings.
Replies: 41
Views: 5881

Re: Losing all of your savings.

volimsmes wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:31 am
i've lost all of my savings because of stupid investments. How should I mentaly deal with situaction like this?
Are you willing to share the details of what you invested in, to help other avoid the pitfalls?
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Personal Black Swan
Replies: 46
Views: 5844

Re: The Personal Black Swan

It is straightforward to hold your assets at a few different banks and investment companies. Seems to be a reasonable precaution to take in the event one financial institution is breached or if you are hit by identity theft (in the hopes that the thieves target one account but not all). Bernstein's...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Nov 12, 2017 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Personal Black Swan
Replies: 46
Views: 5844

Re: The Personal Black Swan

Nearing_Destination wrote:
Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:03 pm
From the look and time, I’d say it was the Russian Exchange....went to zero.
I do not consider that a broadly diversified portfolio - as I specified.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Personal Black Swan
Replies: 46
Views: 5844

Re: The Personal Black Swan

Nisi,

I think that's the fewest words I have seen you employ in one of your responses. By way, what is that portfolio that you show going to zero?
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Nov 12, 2017 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Personal Black Swan
Replies: 46
Views: 5844

The Personal Black Swan

We discuss almost endlessly in this forum how to allocate our financial assets and the various market risks. But really, any broadly diversified portfolio, if held long-term and rebalanced, is pretty safe in the sense that a catastrophic market loss is effectively impossible. Discussed much less is ...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Nov 08, 2017 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"
Replies: 69
Views: 8967

Re: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"

Since she plans to work for another 8 years, I don't know why she wouldn't take new money and plow it into stocks. She claims she already has what she needs, so she wouldn't care if the stock portion tanks. But that extra in equities would be likely to make a nice cushion for her.
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Nov 06, 2017 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends make up for high mutual fund fees
Replies: 31
Views: 2117

Re: Dividends make up for high mutual fund fees

investingdad wrote:
Mon Nov 06, 2017 8:32 am
I mentioned that I felt the fees are over the top relative to performance. Said family member said the fees didn't matter because the dividend payouts are so good.
Said family member does not have a good understanding of stock investing.
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Nov 04, 2017 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My (general) contacts with Treasury Direct re loss & liability
Replies: 37
Views: 4644

Re: My (general) contacts with Treasury Direct re loss & liability

This is a very relevant and timely thread for me, as I only recently became aware of TD's stated policy. Needless to say, I am very concerned, and I am considering transferring my assets out of there. It is a shame, because I really like IBonds.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bond fixed rate 0.10% [November rate announced]
Replies: 31
Views: 4184

Re: I Bond fixed rate 0.10%

One thing that turns me off regarding Treasury Direct is that they make it clear that if there is fraud in your account, it's your problem.