Bogleheads.org

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ThisJustIn wrote: ↑
Mon May 25, 2020 3:45 pm
(And yes, I'm of course not the only one who have thought of this, and maybe market priced this in, but please listen on.)

Not maybe - definitely. All publicly-available information is fully priced-in.

Call_Me_Op

You are too young for ultra-conservative. I would suggest you go 50:50 immediately, and then continue your investing studies. Devise a plan that you can live with and then adjust your AA in accordance. By going 50:50 for now, you will minimize the chance of major regret in either direction. I am pre...

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In the last couple of days there's been a Twitter exchange between Taleb and Asness covered in the media. Taleb seems to have thrashed Asness (and in tweets this morning Fama and MPT too). So does this put into question the Bogleheads philosphy of risk management? Can someone explain in simple term...

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I agree, but my expectations for interest rates have been wrong for almost 10 years now, and I can't say it won't stay low for another 10. Looking at history, interest rates from the 1930's to the 1960's stayed remarkably low... and for those who might be buying a long bond that they expect to hold...

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I don;t bother with that. If my goal were to ensure there were no germs on packages I would go out of my mind. I just wash or cook most of what I eat, and wash my hands before touching my face.

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I have read some variant of this thread many, many times, but here goes. I went all cash in my retirement plans (401a,403b,457b) based on Tepper's call last Wed, that the market is the most overvalued he's ever seen except in 1999. His arguments made a lot of sense (also the bearish sentiments of D...

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Define "better."

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I made only one small change. I held some of my fixed-income in municipal bond funds. Since my philosophy is that "bonds are for safety", I have decided to replace these with CDs and treasuries. My thought is if I want more risk, I am better-off adding a bit more in equities rather than sticking my ...

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I assume that most Bogleheads are doing nothing different in response to low interest rates, and simply accepting that that's what the market is giving. Seems like the only things one can do are reach for yield in fixed-income, put more in stocks, or put money in more exotic investments. All of the...

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Any strong thoughts about recovery of or long-term effects on international markets vs. US after this event-driven bear market? Nope. But I continue to keep 50% of my equities in international - not because I think I know what's going to happen but because it provides a significant increase in dive...

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Hi all, So based on many indicators (e.g. unemployment rate), a recession is coming. Too late to capitalize on this well-known fact. It is not. 70+% of the unemployed believed that they could get their jobs back. There is still plenty of irrational exuberance. KlangFool Is your guess on this any be...

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jvini wrote: ↑
Sun May 10, 2020 6:39 am
I can get a one year CD yielding 1.75%. I can invest in a total market bond fund, BND, with an SEC yield of 1.59%. Why would I not put the fixed portion of my portfolio in CDs?

Because you take a big hit in liquidity. If you definitely do not need to access the money, the CD is a good option.

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Mrxyz wrote: ↑
Fri May 08, 2020 3:25 pm
Hi all,
So based on many indicators (e.g. unemployment rate), a recession is coming.

Too late to capitalize on this well-known fact.

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Bogle believed in American exceptionalism--that our markets and our economy are exceptional and likely to outperform INTL regardless of INTL's more attractive valuations as measured by PE, PB, etc.. Doesn't that fly in the face of market efficiency? Surely, if we are exceptional, this is widely kno...

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KyleAAA wrote: ↑
Fri May 08, 2020 12:41 pm
Two day shipping guarantee is from the date Amazon ships an item, not from the day you order it.

If that's what it means, it's virtually valueless.

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How about that most hold stocks for the long run, and the current situation is temporary.

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Keep some cash outside of the fund.

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I am running some Monte Carlo simulators and I don’t understand the basis for why a person that is older say 60 and up should have an asset allocation closer to 50/50 stock bond versus just continuing to hold 100% stock like a 30 year old would. What am I missing? The retiree would be subject to se...

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fyre4ce wrote: ↑
Wed May 06, 2020 12:32 pm
I have about 5-10% of my portfolio in the TIAA real estate fund. Commercial real estate seems like a lousy investment during the pandemic as a lot of businesses won't be allowed to stay open.

As opposed to what? Can you identify the good asset classes?

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We are a retired couple (for 1.5 years,) 60 & 62 and have a managed portfolio through Vanguard where we are withdrawing 6500.00 monthly. Our QUESTION: Is there any reason, during these unstable times, that we should be taking money from our stocks. Shouldn't we just take money from our bonds? You s...

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Lump sum investing is not necessarily better, it is statistically better from a strictly financial standpoint. That is, because the market has generally risen over time, historically you would have made out better on average if you immediately invested a lump sum versus dollar-cost averaged it. Make...

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I keep trying to convince my friends about the value of low-cost index investing. For the most part they are not really financially savvy and rarely even invest at all. But what little investing they have done the past 3 months has outperformed the market. This from people who know almost nothing a...

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Too much work even to think about the shape of the curve. Every so often just think about what you have, what you will need in retirement, how much of a loss you could sustain, and how long you would have to recover. Agreed. And if you one day realize you have more than you need, immediately reduce...

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Sounds to me that the custodian was clearly negligent by not informing the participant of the transfers in a timely and appropriate manner. I hope she was made whole.

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Jags4186 wrote: ↑
Wed May 06, 2020 6:52 am
Because Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger believe they can beat the SP500.

..or they'd have nothing to do.

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I am the odd man out. I have always had a low equity allocation - never more than about 50/50. I have done quite well, though. I guess my approach has been - be ready at all times for retirement, since it can be forced upon you.

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No thoughts. When asset prices move down, their expected return increases - and vice versa.

As far as what bonds to use for safety - nothing has changed.

Call_Me_Op

I keep trying to convince my friends about the value of low-cost index investing. For the most part they are not really financially savvy and rarely even invest at all. But what little investing they have done the past 3 months has outperformed the market. This from people who know almost nothing a...

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Cherry-picking time periods can yield all sorts of results.

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Glad to see the consensus that value is dead. This bodes well for my value stocks.

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Back-testing is hazardous to your wealth.

By the way, your title says 40% QQQ while the test in your OP says 60% QQQ.

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I read the article a while back. I think a rising glide path is an unnecessary complexity that brings with it behavioral risks. What would you suggest besides that to mitigate SORR for an early retiree? Just keep equity allocation low. SORR is only an issue when equity allocation is high. It is ass...

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My rule has been to never place in the cloud anything where disclosure may have catastrophic consequences.

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The 4% rule as normally defined has never been safe - and never been a great withdrawal strategy.

Call_Me_Op

I read the article a while back. I think a rising glide path is an unnecessary complexity that brings with it behavioral risks. What would you suggest besides that to mitigate SORR for an early retiree? Just keep equity allocation low. SORR is only an issue when equity allocation is high. It is ass...

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anon_investor wrote: ↑
Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:05 pm

Call_Me_Op wrote: ↑
Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:00 pm

patrick wrote: ↑
Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:52 am
I estimated the expected return on stocks and found it about the same as EE bonds held 20 years.
Yes, but with EE bonds, you miss out on all the excitement.
If you want excitement with your fixed income go with LTT .

I get enough excitement from my stocks, thank you.

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patrick wrote: ↑
Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:52 am
I estimated the expected return on stocks and found it about the same as EE bonds held 20 years.

Yes, but with EE bonds, you miss out on all the excitement.

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I retired in April 2019, and am using the rising equity glide path to reduce SOR risk. My plan is to go from 25% to 55% stocks over 20 years (1.5% per year). Not sure why you would have to increase your equities to avoid SOR risk. I believe it's actually kind of the opposite. You need equities to a...

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I am trying to get my head around the recent and rapid rise in equities over the last few weeks. In the face of what can only be described as brutal economic conditions worldwide, why in the world should equities be priced for perfection? And the only logical reason that I can surmise is that when ...

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rockAction wrote: ↑
Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:01 am
I retired in April 2019, and am using the rising equity glide path to reduce SOR risk. My plan is to go from 25% to 55% stocks over 20 years (1.5% per year).

Not sure why you would have to increase your equities to avoid SOR risk.

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Hi guys, Assuming a person plans to put 1M USD into savings, how does he allocate it efficiently to prevent bank runs? Should he go for the max amount each government is insuring? FDIC is 250K USD so does he open four accounts accounts with 250K each? That sounds feasible with 1M USD, but what if i...

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Can I retire with current financials? Age 48, Single 1.2M in CDs. 557K in 401K. No pension. No debt. No mortgage. Annual expenses 12K. Is this a trick question? A 0.68% withdrawal rate without even considering social security? How do you keep your expenses so low? Or maybe I should ask why you keep...

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Why not? This is exactly what I expected. I didn't expect Long Term Treasuries to dip along with the stock market on March 20th. Probably liquidity issue as Grabiner described. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=313314&p=5218100#p5217253 I see - that momentary glitch is what both...

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riperobgyn wrote: ↑
Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:10 pm
Just wanted peoples opinion. I have about 800K invested in many many different funds.......

That's your first problem.

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Folks have made good points. You can always save the PDF documents and make periodic back-ups of them. This should be as good as paper.

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It is a good question. And a related question is how stale can the data be and still be considered valid proof of ownership. In other words, if I have a 1 month old paper statement, why is that much better than a 1 year old statement? In both cases, if all electronic records are lost, I only have pr...

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Cubicle wrote: ↑
Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:27 pm
.Yes.

No. We did not know when the bleeding would stop. Don't confuse strategy with outcome.

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There's a lot of discussion about which bond types to have when the stock market tanks. I looked at the last 3 month price chart "just to see". SCHJ - Intermediate Corporate SPY - S&P 500 SCHO - Short Treasury VLGSX - Long Treasury FUMAX - Intermediate Treasury https://i.postimg.cc/9fMcHmwH/Which-b...

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I retired at 52 last year with a 50:50 allocation, and my initial withdrawal is around 3.5% (and no pension). Yes, my accounts dropped a bit and I didn't really enjoy seeing my nest egg tumble, but I was always aware this was a possibility and have planned for it. Thus far, I have plodded along and...

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Yep, the risk differences are also apparent in their yields... Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Investor Shares (VWITX) 1.78% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VBTLX) 1.67% Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index Fund Admiral Shares (VSIGX) .41% Sure - but the intere...

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