Bogleheads.org

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Very nice Todd. Always enjoy and appreciate your posts.

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If one thinks about it, what Christine is describing is essentially the same as the balanced bogleheads portfolios we discuss regularly here. I see no fundamental differences. This is not a criticism in any way. But the one potentially misleading aspect is that she describes the buckets with a time ...

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A guideline such as "save 10% -20% of your paycheck for retirement" is meaningless. What you need to save is an amount of money that is a certain multiple of your initial annual living expenses. This could translate to savings of less than 10% of your salary or greater than 100%.

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Hello people. I just bought a property out in the country I plan on retiring on in 10 years. My GF is currently renting it from me and we have noticed allot of ticks since she moved in probably because there are allot of field mice and deer in the area. Just to be clear, are you noticing them insid...

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FIREchief wrote: ↑
Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:48 pm
[Exactly. A: stay the course, B: nobody knows nothing

That would mean that everybody knows something.

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averagedude wrote: ↑
Tue Jul 03, 2018 1:16 pm
I can't believe Rick Ferri and all of you bogleheads saying to expect 5% nominal returns in the future. I guess i will have to sell my holdings and contact a SmartVestor Pro. Dave Ramsey says i should get 12%.

Not only that, but you'll get to work with someone who has the heart of a teacher.

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I hear warning bells going off (in addition to my usual tinnitus).

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Thrifty, Let me repeat my original words, and then explain them - since you are not representing them accurately. "First, the assertion that SCV has under-performed the S&P500 over long time periods is flat-out wrong. There is a small cap premium and a value premium, and these are persistent and per...

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ThriftyPhD wrote: ↑
Sun Jul 08, 2018 6:18 pm

Call_Me_Op wrote: ↑
Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:38 pm
Nobody has ever claimed that SCV will beat S&P 500 over every time period.
Well, you did.

Untrue. Please identify where I said that.

Call_Me_Op

First, the assertion that SCV has under-performed the S&P500 over long time periods is flat-out wrong. There is a small cap premium and a value premium, and these are persistent and pervasive (over long time periods). Look at the data yourself. Not that I'm against SCV, but there are some examples ...

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It seems to me that investing in SCV is completely contradictory for Bogleheads, particularly having a substantial allocation towards SCV. Aren't we Bogleheads supposed to believe in reversion to the mean, and that the past is not prologue? How do those who invest in SCV reconcile with those founda...

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Another way to describe that is to say "The Market" wanted to buy $85 billion worth of notes. The Government only wanted to sell $35 Billion. It's a little more complicated than that, in that weaker demand can drive up rates. But in other fields, anything over 2.0 is considered a successful auction...

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I don't like the idea of "X years in expenses in bonds" (without some equities) because I would not want to be in my rocking chair watching my portfolio deplete toward zero. I would always keep some money in equities and view the portfolio as a whole, with the goal that the overall portfolio increas...

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Interesting question. I think in this case, one's willingness to take risk might trump the need to take risk. For me, equities in the range of 30%-40% would be as much as I could stomach - assuming I had more than enough. The other 60%-70% wold be in high quality short-intermediate bonds. I think wh...

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If you do not know why you have tilted toward EM, you will have a hard time sticking with it.

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80-90% of personal umbrella claims are for auto accidents. If you almost never drive, don't own any dangerous pets, don't have any high risk hobbies, like boating or flying a private plane, and rent an apartment or condo, I question whether you need an umbrella policy at all. All insurance applies ...

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dgm wrote: ↑
Wed Jun 27, 2018 6:57 pm
How does umbrella work?

If you have a 5 mil umbrella and a 7 mil net worth, are you still bankrupt if someone successfully sues for 12 million? or are you only liable for 2m and the insurance company for 5m

In that contrived scenario, you are out of luck.

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As the title says, is there? I mean for example treasuries were the way to go to last years but lowering of interest rates surely helped their gains. Will there be a reversion to the mean when interest rates rise again? And will an investor be better off in a diversified index like total bond? No. ...

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Balanced portfolio

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Got to have some fun.

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Most of the cheap filters will do nothing for odors and gases. Why are you getting the filters?

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Honestly if I felt I needed a Pre-nup, or my potential spouse did. I'd suggest we remain friends with benefits. I disagree. The pre-nup is necessary unless you both start out with zero assets and liabilities. May well be true. But every time I have broached the topic with a prospective spouse, it h...

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Hello. I'm 69. Retired. Live off SS and savings. Current investment allocation is 60 equities, 40 bonds. Thinking of reversing allocation to 60 bonds/40 stocks through midterms. Objective is to buy a little insurance for portfolio if tariff trade war deepens. Thoughts, please. That may be the right...

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Honestly if I felt I needed a Pre-nup, or my potential spouse did. I'd suggest we remain friends with benefits. I disagree. The pre-nup is necessary unless you both start out with zero assets and liabilities. May well be true. But every time I have broached the topic with a prospective spouse, it h...

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Umbrella vs excess liability. Apologies if I used the incorrect term. Thanks for the suggestion to search the forum. I had not thought to do that nor do I recall ever seeing any post in that regard... UPDATE I did find an extensive discussion in another post. As for my details, I’ve gotten a quote ...

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I have that Bernstein quote taped to the wall by my computer - lest I start to forget.

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Duffydog, I assume that you are in the three fund portfolio because you feel you need/want to risk some of your money in the hope of higher return. There is no reason why you cannot replace the bond portion with CDs, although you do lose the ability to conveniently rebalance. From your post, it soun...

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Factor investing is complex and the “optimal” way to do it is always changing because there is no optimal way that can be known in advance. The idea that factor premiums can be predicted is a fallacy. The small cap premium was discovered in the 1970s... and has been dead ever since. Stock market re...

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Normally, one sets-up a bond (or CD) ladder with the intention of holding the securities to maturity, and rolling them over. Otherwise, it is hard to maintain the ladder. Only you can decide if the small amount of savings is worth the hassle.

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Nothing to worry about.

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. But if the yield curve inverts and long term bonds yield less than short term, does the bond barbell still provide any value at all? Of course it does - the long bonds increase in value. If you want, you can sell them at a profit and buy short bonds, whose yields are higher. That said, studies ha...

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When you have been investing for a while, you realize that matching specific ratios is really not important. If I like a set of risky asset classes, I like to keep things simple and divide equally among them.

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Don't know how you can make any (real) money without risking some loss.

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I am getting the itch to short Amazon. I have been watching it for a while and now that it has crossed 1700, I don't really see much upside in that stock. Interesting that you think you can predict the direction of a specific stock - when nobody else seems able to do so with any degree of reliabili...

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Sounds like a lot of aggravation for little if any benefit - unless perhaps if you are dealing with 6+ figures.

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There is a lot of talk recently about shifting to shorter duration bonds because interest rates are going up. Do we know something that is not already known by everyone else buying and selling bonds? Do we have information not already priced into the bonds? "The market is smarter than you are" was ...

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I have accounts with two brokerages, but no real preference. About once a year, they offer me a significant incentive to transfer stock to them. So I move stocks around. It takes 10 minutes and it very profitable. (Well, the return on capital is not big, but in terms of $/hour...) As they must know...

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Retiring after years of contributions to TIAA, we’ve noticed that we’re paying a lot more in expense ratios than we would if we were invested in Vanguard. So we’re thinking about moving some of ours funds to Vanguard but retaining with TIAA, in each account, the Traditional holdings plus some cushi...

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The bond returns extrapolate to about zero real in the 2000's. Maybe Buffett is right. But the point is that keeping ahold of your assets at low risk is still a necessary part of wealth management. Fortunately people get to make a choice anywhere along that continuum they want to go. Indeed. I hold...

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The obvious take away is not to assume more than 2% real for bonds - which you should not be assuming anyway.

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I am sticking to my plan.

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Question is irrelevant, since this will never happen. The system is self-correcting. As more people index, exploitable inefficiencies increase, which draws investors into active trading

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Why do people keep saying that small cap overperforms large cap? The small cap universe has lost to the large cap universe since the establishment of the Russell 2000 index. (I understand that the S&P 500 is not exactly the large cap universe, but I tried comparing the CRSP US Large Cap index to th...

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AlphaLess wrote: ↑
Sat Jun 09, 2018 2:55 am
One criticism I have of Buffet is that he hoards cash.
Keeping that cash uninvested is basically a foregone opportunity.
Simply: it is a drag on performance.

Seems to have worked-out OK for him.

Call_Me_Op

In the event of a prolonged bear market (define the timeframe as you will), does your Investment Policy Statement (IPS) contain a strategy beyond "stay the course" and "rebalance by directing funds to the decreased asset"? I'm just curious if other Bogleheads have adopted lesser discussed strategie...

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Perhaps it would help if you do not consider bonds an investment, but instead, protection against catastrophic loss. If you really want to invest all of your money in vehicles having high expected return, you need to accept the possibility of catastrophic loss. I think of catastrophic loss like bro...

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Perhaps it would help if you do not consider bonds an investment, but instead, protection against catastrophic loss. If you really want to invest all of your money in vehicles having high expected return, you need to accept the possibility of catastrophic loss. I think of catastrophic loss like bro...

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Volumeusa wrote: ↑
Fri Jun 08, 2018 12:56 am
With utmost sincerity, a dummy with $12k (me) walks up to you and asks:

Via investing of any kind, what can I do to make $1M in one year from now?

Surely you must be joking Mr. Feynman.

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Have you looked into brokered CDs and US treasuries?

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Why do you need all of those funds? They make it seem like you are much more diversified than you actually are. This is a classic example of unnecessary complexity.

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