Search found 7733 matches

by Call_Me_Op
Mon May 25, 2020 3:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Air conditioner stocks
Replies: 17
Views: 938

Re: Air conditioner stocks

ThisJustIn wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 3:45 pm
(And yes, I'm of course not the only one who have thought of this, and maybe market priced this in, but please listen on.)
Not maybe - definitely. All publicly-available information is fully priced-in.
by Call_Me_Op
Mon May 25, 2020 1:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I have no risk tolerance: where am I supposed to keep my money?
Replies: 50
Views: 3376

Re: I have no risk tolerance: where am I supposed to keep my money?

You are too young for ultra-conservative. I would suggest you go 50:50 immediately, and then continue your investing studies. Devise a plan that you can live with and then adjust your AA in accordance. By going 50:50 for now, you will minimize the chance of major regret in either direction. I am pre...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun May 24, 2020 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 6889

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy

In the last couple of days there's been a Twitter exchange between Taleb and Asness covered in the media. Taleb seems to have thrashed Asness (and in tweets this morning Fama and MPT too). So does this put into question the Bogleheads philosphy of risk management? Can someone explain in simple term...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu May 21, 2020 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 327
Views: 16685

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

I agree, but my expectations for interest rates have been wrong for almost 10 years now, and I can't say it won't stay low for another 10. Looking at history, interest rates from the 1930's to the 1960's stayed remarkably low... and for those who might be buying a long bond that they expect to hold...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu May 21, 2020 7:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Safely disinfecting frozen food packages from corona virus?
Replies: 51
Views: 3552

Re: Safely disinfecting frozen food packages from corona virus?

I don;t bother with that. If my goal were to ensure there were no germs on packages I would go out of my mind. I just wash or cook most of what I eat, and wash my hands before touching my face.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu May 21, 2020 7:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call
Replies: 95
Views: 11322

Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

I have read some variant of this thread many, many times, but here goes. I went all cash in my retirement plans (401a,403b,457b) based on Tepper's call last Wed, that the market is the most overvalued he's ever seen except in 1999. His arguments made a lot of sense (also the bearish sentiments of D...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu May 14, 2020 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Income lessons learned from Coronavirus?
Replies: 48
Views: 4247

Re: Fixed Income lessons learned from Coronavirus?

I made only one small change. I held some of my fixed-income in municipal bond funds. Since my philosophy is that "bonds are for safety", I have decided to replace these with CDs and treasuries. My thought is if I want more risk, I am better-off adding a bit more in equities rather than sticking my ...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu May 14, 2020 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reacting to low interest rates
Replies: 80
Views: 5944

Re: Reacting to low interest rates

I assume that most Bogleheads are doing nothing different in response to low interest rates, and simply accepting that that's what the market is giving. Seems like the only things one can do are reach for yield in fixed-income, put more in stocks, or put money in more exotic investments. All of the...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu May 14, 2020 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9355

Call_Me_Op

Any strong thoughts about recovery of or long-term effects on international markets vs. US after this event-driven bear market? Nope. But I continue to keep 50% of my equities in international - not because I think I know what's going to happen but because it provides a significant increase in dive...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon May 11, 2020 7:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Recession coming (?) any change in investments?
Replies: 82
Views: 7150

Re: Recession coming (?) any change in investments?

Hi all, So based on many indicators (e.g. unemployment rate), a recession is coming. Too late to capitalize on this well-known fact. It is not. 70+% of the unemployed believed that they could get their jobs back. There is still plenty of irrational exuberance. KlangFool Is your guess on this any be...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon May 11, 2020 7:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Simple question. Many answers?
Replies: 16
Views: 1499

Re: Simple question. Many answers?

jvini wrote:
Sun May 10, 2020 6:39 am
I can get a one year CD yielding 1.75%. I can invest in a total market bond fund, BND, with an SEC yield of 1.59%. Why would I not put the fixed portion of my portfolio in CDs?
Because you take a big hit in liquidity. If you definitely do not need to access the money, the CD is a good option.
by Call_Me_Op
Sat May 09, 2020 8:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Recession coming (?) any change in investments?
Replies: 82
Views: 7150

Re: Recession coming (?) any change in investments?

Mrxyz wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 3:25 pm
Hi all,
So based on many indicators (e.g. unemployment rate), a recession is coming.
Too late to capitalize on this well-known fact.
by Call_Me_Op
Sat May 09, 2020 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16051

Re: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

Bogle believed in American exceptionalism--that our markets and our economy are exceptional and likely to outperform INTL regardless of INTL's more attractive valuations as measured by PE, PB, etc.. Doesn't that fly in the face of market efficiency? Surely, if we are exceptional, this is widely kno...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat May 09, 2020 7:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon issues - cannot even cancel Prime really
Replies: 59
Views: 3728

Re: Amazon issues - cannot even cancel Prime really

KyleAAA wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 12:41 pm
Two day shipping guarantee is from the date Amazon ships an item, not from the day you order it.
If that's what it means, it's virtually valueless.
by Call_Me_Op
Sat May 09, 2020 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The economy is in free fall. So why isn't the stock market?"
Replies: 153
Views: 15206

Re: WSJ - Why is the Stock Market Rallying When the Economy is So Bad?

How about that most hold stocks for the long run, and the current situation is temporary.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri May 08, 2020 7:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Life Strategy Funds — what happens when I need cash?
Replies: 20
Views: 1901

Re: Life Strategy Funds — what happens when I need cash?

Keep some cash outside of the fund.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri May 08, 2020 7:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Make Portfolio Safer (More Bonds) as I age?
Replies: 35
Views: 3047

Re: Why Make Portfolio Safer (More Bonds) as I age?

I am running some Monte Carlo simulators and I don’t understand the basis for why a person that is older say 60 and up should have an asset allocation closer to 50/50 stock bond versus just continuing to hold 100% stock like a 30 year old would. What am I missing? The retiree would be subject to se...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed May 06, 2020 1:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA Real Estate fund during pandemic
Replies: 23
Views: 942

Re: TIAA Real Estate fund during pandemic

fyre4ce wrote:
Wed May 06, 2020 12:32 pm
I have about 5-10% of my portfolio in the TIAA real estate fund. Commercial real estate seems like a lousy investment during the pandemic as a lot of businesses won't be allowed to stay open.
As opposed to what? Can you identify the good asset classes?
by Call_Me_Op
Wed May 06, 2020 1:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Withdrawal via stocks, bonds?
Replies: 7
Views: 446

Re: Retirement Withdrawal via stocks, bonds?

We are a retired couple (for 1.5 years,) 60 & 62 and have a managed portfolio through Vanguard where we are withdrawing 6500.00 monthly. Our QUESTION: Is there any reason, during these unstable times, that we should be taking money from our stocks. Shouldn't we just take money from our bonds? You s...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed May 06, 2020 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is lump sum investment option better than DCA?
Replies: 156
Views: 5702

Re: Why is lump sum investment option better than DCA?

Lump sum investing is not necessarily better, it is statistically better from a strictly financial standpoint. That is, because the market has generally risen over time, historically you would have made out better on average if you immediately invested a lump sum versus dollar-cost averaged it. Make...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed May 06, 2020 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All my friends are outperforming index funds
Replies: 122
Views: 11142

Re: All my friends are outperforming index funds

I keep trying to convince my friends about the value of low-cost index investing. For the most part they are not really financially savvy and rarely even invest at all. But what little investing they have done the past 3 months has outperformed the market. This from people who know almost nothing a...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed May 06, 2020 7:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Glide Path" for asset allocation
Replies: 26
Views: 1799

Re: "Glide Path" for asset allocation

Too much work even to think about the shape of the curve. Every so often just think about what you have, what you will need in retirement, how much of a loss you could sustain, and how long you would have to recover. Agreed. And if you one day realize you have more than you need, immediately reduce...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed May 06, 2020 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investor sues over 401k account fraud losses
Replies: 4
Views: 725

Re: Investor sues over 401k account fraud losses

Sounds to me that the custodian was clearly negligent by not informing the participant of the transfers in a timely and appropriate manner. I hope she was made whole.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed May 06, 2020 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn’t BRK just buy SP500 index fund?
Replies: 37
Views: 3475

Re: Why doesn’t BRK just buy SP500 index fund?

Jags4186 wrote:
Wed May 06, 2020 6:52 am
Because Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger believe they can beat the SP500.
..or they'd have nothing to do.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed May 06, 2020 7:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Glide Path" for asset allocation
Replies: 26
Views: 1799

Re: "Glide Path" for asset allocation

I am the odd man out. I have always had a low equity allocation - never more than about 50/50. I have done quite well, though. I guess my approach has been - be ready at all times for retirement, since it can be forced upon you.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed May 06, 2020 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BlackRock: How the pandemic changes our long-term asset views
Replies: 1
Views: 532

Re: BlackRock: How the pandemic changes our long-term asset views

No thoughts. When asset prices move down, their expected return increases - and vice versa.

As far as what bonds to use for safety - nothing has changed.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed May 06, 2020 6:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All my friends are outperforming index funds
Replies: 122
Views: 11142

Re: All my friends are outperforming index funds

I keep trying to convince my friends about the value of low-cost index investing. For the most part they are not really financially savvy and rarely even invest at all. But what little investing they have done the past 3 months has outperformed the market. This from people who know almost nothing a...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue May 05, 2020 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Beat Stocks Over the Last 20 Years
Replies: 42
Views: 4065

Re: Bonds Beat Stocks Over the Last 20 Years

Cherry-picking time periods can yield all sorts of results.
by Call_Me_Op
Sat May 02, 2020 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead
Replies: 96
Views: 8988

Re: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead

Glad to see the consensus that value is dead. This bodes well for my value stocks.
by Call_Me_Op
Sat May 02, 2020 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats wrong with my portfolio? 60% in IEF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF) and 40% in QQQ(Nasdaq ETF)
Replies: 26
Views: 2029

Re: Whats wrong with my portfolio? 60% in IEF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF) and 40% in QQQ(Nasdaq ETF)

Back-testing is hazardous to your wealth.

By the way, your title says 40% QQQ while the test in your OP says 60% QQQ.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri May 01, 2020 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Recent Retiree using rising equity glide path - only increase equity during crashes?
Replies: 41
Views: 2255

Re: Recent Retiree using rising equity glide path - only increase equity during crashes?

I read the article a while back. I think a rising glide path is an unnecessary complexity that brings with it behavioral risks. What would you suggest besides that to mitigate SORR for an early retiree? Just keep equity allocation low. SORR is only an issue when equity allocation is high. It is ass...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri May 01, 2020 7:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it safe to store financial statements in the cloud?
Replies: 48
Views: 3385

Re: Is it safe to store financial statements in the cloud?

My rule has been to never place in the cloud anything where disclosure may have catastrophic consequences.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri May 01, 2020 7:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Podcast - Wade Pfau: The 4% Rule Is No Longer Safe
Replies: 162
Views: 10091

Re: Podcast - Wade Pfau: The 4% Rule Is No Longer Safe

The 4% rule as normally defined has never been safe - and never been a great withdrawal strategy.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Recent Retiree using rising equity glide path - only increase equity during crashes?
Replies: 41
Views: 2255

Re: Recent Retiree using rising equity glide path - only increase equity during crashes?

I read the article a while back. I think a rising glide path is an unnecessary complexity that brings with it behavioral risks. What would you suggest besides that to mitigate SORR for an early retiree? Just keep equity allocation low. SORR is only an issue when equity allocation is high. It is ass...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected return of stocks equals EE savings bonds
Replies: 23
Views: 1270

Re: Expected return of stocks equals EE savings bonds

anon_investor wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:05 pm
Call_Me_Op wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:00 pm
patrick wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:52 am
I estimated the expected return on stocks and found it about the same as EE bonds held 20 years.
Yes, but with EE bonds, you miss out on all the excitement. :)
If you want excitement with your fixed income go with LTT :D .
I get enough excitement from my stocks, thank you. :)
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected return of stocks equals EE savings bonds
Replies: 23
Views: 1270

Re: Expected return of stocks equals EE savings bonds

patrick wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:52 am
I estimated the expected return on stocks and found it about the same as EE bonds held 20 years.
Yes, but with EE bonds, you miss out on all the excitement. :)
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Recent Retiree using rising equity glide path - only increase equity during crashes?
Replies: 41
Views: 2255

Re: Recent Retiree using rising equity glide path - only increase equity during crashes?

I retired in April 2019, and am using the rising equity glide path to reduce SOR risk. My plan is to go from 25% to 55% stocks over 20 years (1.5% per year). Not sure why you would have to increase your equities to avoid SOR risk. I believe it's actually kind of the opposite. You need equities to a...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What explains the continued rise in equities?
Replies: 167
Views: 12660

Re: What explains the continued rise in equities?

I am trying to get my head around the recent and rapid rise in equities over the last few weeks. In the face of what can only be described as brutal economic conditions worldwide, why in the world should equities be priced for perfection? And the only logical reason that I can surmise is that when ...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Recent Retiree using rising equity glide path - only increase equity during crashes?
Replies: 41
Views: 2255

Re: Recent Retiree using rising equity glide path - only increase equity during crashes?

rockAction wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:01 am
I retired in April 2019, and am using the rising equity glide path to reduce SOR risk. My plan is to go from 25% to 55% stocks over 20 years (1.5% per year).
Not sure why you would have to increase your equities to avoid SOR risk.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:40 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Ways to minimize bank bankruptcy exposure?
Replies: 24
Views: 2162

Re: Ways to minimize bank run exposure?

Hi guys, Assuming a person plans to put 1M USD into savings, how does he allocate it efficiently to prevent bank runs? Should he go for the max amount each government is insuring? FDIC is 250K USD so does he open four accounts accounts with 250K each? That sounds feasible with 1M USD, but what if i...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I retire?
Replies: 22
Views: 2176

Re: Can I retire?

Can I retire with current financials? Age 48, Single 1.2M in CDs. 557K in 401K. No pension. No debt. No mortgage. Annual expenses 12K. Is this a trick question? A 0.68% withdrawal rate without even considering social security? How do you keep your expenses so low? Or maybe I should ask why you keep...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks
Replies: 82
Views: 6183

Re: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks

Why not? This is exactly what I expected. I didn't expect Long Term Treasuries to dip along with the stock market on March 20th. Probably liquidity issue as Grabiner described. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=313314&p=5218100#p5217253 I see - that momentary glitch is what both...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Leaving Edward Jones is there a better or worse time
Replies: 35
Views: 1939

Re: Leaving Edward Jones is there a better or worse time

riperobgyn wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:10 pm
Just wanted peoples opinion. I have about 800K invested in many many different funds.......
That's your first problem.
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Proof of ownership and paper statements
Replies: 23
Views: 1420

Re: Proof of ownership and paper statements

Folks have made good points. You can always save the PDF documents and make periodic back-ups of them. This should be as good as paper.
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Proof of ownership and paper statements
Replies: 23
Views: 1420

Re: Proof of ownership and paper statements

It is a good question. And a related question is how stale can the data be and still be considered valid proof of ownership. In other words, if I have a 1 month old paper statement, why is that much better than a 1 year old statement? In both cases, if all electronic records are lost, I only have pr...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?
Replies: 110
Views: 9272

Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Cubicle wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:27 pm
.Yes.
No. We did not know when the bleeding would stop. Don't confuse strategy with outcome.
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks
Replies: 82
Views: 6183

Re: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks

There's a lot of discussion about which bond types to have when the stock market tanks. I looked at the last 3 month price chart "just to see". SCHJ - Intermediate Corporate SPY - S&P 500 SCHO - Short Treasury VLGSX - Long Treasury FUMAX - Intermediate Treasury https://i.postimg.cc/9fMcHmwH/Which-b...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Early retirees who were close - how are you adjusting
Replies: 45
Views: 6132

Re: Early retirees who were close - how are you adjusting

I retired at 52 last year with a 50:50 allocation, and my initial withdrawal is around 3.5% (and no pension). Yes, my accounts dropped a bit and I didn't really enjoy seeing my nest egg tumble, but I was always aware this was a possibility and have planned for it. Thus far, I have plodded along and...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk of Muni Bonds
Replies: 56
Views: 5234

Re: Risk of Muni Bonds

Yep, the risk differences are also apparent in their yields... Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Investor Shares (VWITX) 1.78% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VBTLX) 1.67% Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index Fund Admiral Shares (VSIGX) .41% Sure - but the intere...