Search found 54 matches

by milktoast
Wed Oct 09, 2019 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: highly compensated employee (HCE) Time bomb?
Replies: 83
Views: 7093

Re: highly compensated employee (HCE) Time bomb?

So what it seems like I am being told is that this really is a complete shot in the dark. It's not really it ignore it because it's a first world problem or that I shouldn't plan ahead. It really is just that it can randomly kick in next year when she makes $140k or some promotion at $200k or anywh...
by milktoast
Wed Oct 09, 2019 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: highly compensated employee (HCE) Time bomb?
Replies: 83
Views: 7093

Re: highly compensated employee (HCE) Time bomb?

I would wait to worry about this until it impacts you. What you can do to help your future self is to encourage your peers (who are under the HCE threshold) to maximize their contributions. HCE doesn't suddenly limit your contributions. Safe harbor is an out. But so is good participation rates from ...
by milktoast
Wed Oct 09, 2019 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What should I do about employer / industry risk in tech?
Replies: 36
Views: 2848

Re: What should I do about employer / industry risk in tech?

I've been around for a few tech crashes. This is my advice: - don't hold stock in your own employer. Don't do it. Don't. Don't hold stock in your own employer. - save rather than grow your lifestyle - be polite and helpful to everyone you work with. For people you meet in the top 10% of their area (...
by milktoast
Mon Sep 30, 2019 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks, Bonds and Gold are expensive at the same time
Replies: 13
Views: 1015

Re: Stocks, Bonds and Gold are expensive at the same time

Maybe this isn't allowed on bogleheads, if so my apologies. To a certain extent, this makes sense in the current environment. Productivity has grown significantly over the last 40 years, but median real wage is stagnant. Low bond yields, high gold prices, high p/e ratios, high investment real estate...
by milktoast
Mon Sep 23, 2019 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: My stock options are expiring soon!
Replies: 21
Views: 1767

Re: My stock options are expiring soon!

When you exercise NSO, you earn ordinary income on the gap between exercise price and FMV. And FMV becomes your new basis. So think of this as two transactions: first you turn NSO into a cash bonus. Then by not doing an immediate sale, you are effectively purchasing shares at FMV. If you want to pur...
by milktoast
Sun Sep 22, 2019 12:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone here has more 200k in a single stock ?
Replies: 58
Views: 7870

Re: Anyone here has more 200k in a single stock ?

I’m very overweight in my mega-corp employers stock and I’m ok with it. Historically we have outperformed the S&P500 for the past 15 years or so. 20 years ago, I did the same. At the time I was only 5 years from early retirement. I’m now only 5 years from retirement. I wish you luck. But you need t...
by milktoast
Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Emp Stock Purchase vs 401k increase
Replies: 33
Views: 2158

Re: Emp Stock Purchase vs 401k increase

Good grief. The answer is to do both. Thanks for stating better what I was trying to say above. The 12,500 - 15% is $10,625 that the OP needs to set aside. The purpose of that money is to keep maxing the ESPP and throwing off the free $1875 every six months. Every time you next day sell the ESPP, p...
by milktoast
Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Emp Stock Purchase vs 401k increase
Replies: 33
Views: 2158

Re: Emp Stock Purchase vs 401k increase

I strongly recommend any ESPP purchases be sold the day after purchase. Just treat the 15% as a cash bonus. Two problems with holding ESPP shares. First: diversification. Company shares falling and you losing job are highly correlated. Second: annual return. The annual return from that 15% discount ...
by milktoast
Sun Sep 08, 2019 7:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules
Replies: 274
Views: 20061

Re: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules

They will always argue that the SWR could have been much lower than it really was and that the only prudent strategy is to assume worse returns and a worse sequence of returns than has ever happened before. I think that’s fine. But only if they change their AA to be consistent with this assumption....
by milktoast
Sat Sep 07, 2019 6:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules
Replies: 274
Views: 20061

Re: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules

2% SWR over 50yrs assumes 0% real return on portfolio. That seems extreme to me. But if it seems reasonable to you, I highly recommend going for 0.5% real returns via a TIPS only portfolio. If you think 1.8% is the number of 50 years, run don’t walk to your TIPs auction. It assumes 2.5 - 3 % real, ...
by milktoast
Sat Sep 07, 2019 2:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules
Replies: 274
Views: 20061

Re: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules

2% SWR over 50yrs assumes 0% real return on portfolio.

That seems extreme to me. But if it seems reasonable to you, I highly recommend going for 0.5% real returns via a TIPS only portfolio.

If you think 1.8% is the number of 50 years, run don’t walk to your TIPs auction.
by milktoast
Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pre-IPO trading vs. IPO value
Replies: 11
Views: 623

Re: Pre-IPO trading vs. IPO value

This probably doesn't apply. But I'll warn you anyway. DO NOT EXERCISE OPTIONS AND HOLD UNLESS YOU UNDERSTAND AMT. Especially in pre-IPO situations or during the six month lockout, you can do yourself very serious financial harm. During the dotcom bust, there were people who owed huge amounts of AMT...
by milktoast
Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 24yo enrolling in 1st 401k-- after tax contr NOT roth 401k
Replies: 15
Views: 867

Re: 24yo enrolling in 1st 401k-- after tax contr NOT roth 401k

If there is a company match, pick the option that allows you to get it. At my company, that means putting money into tax deferred 401k. No match for after tax contributions. For after tax 401k, find out the Roth-401k and Roth-IRA rollover options allowed by your plan. But if you think your tax rate ...
by milktoast
Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Learnings/Regrets from last two recessions
Replies: 91
Views: 11976

Re: Learnings/Regrets from last two recessions

Dotcom lesson.

If 80% of your net worth is in your employers stock - you have overestimated your net worth by 10x.
by milktoast
Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investing in my Company Stock Plan (ESPP) - is it worth it?
Replies: 39
Views: 2055

Re: Investing in my Company Stock Plan (ESPP) - is it worth it?

I have a slightly different but related question. I have an ESPP plan I will be eligible for next year. It is a 15%discount plan no match. Am I correct though that the 15% discount is really no advantage by itself? Thank you If you can next day sale, you should max out. Unless your company stock of...
by milktoast
Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Streamlining holdings for Roth conversions and tlh??
Replies: 1
Views: 167

Re: Streamlining holdings for Roth conversions and tlh??

You can only generate tax losses (and wash sales) when selling from your taxable account.

So if you are selling at a loss from taxable, you do need to turn off auto investments and avoid buying the same security during Roth conversion. If you don’t liquidate during conversion, it isn’t a purchase.
by milktoast
Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: would like portfolio review and advice
Replies: 12
Views: 1078

Re: would like portfolio review and advice

You can become more conservative. Or more aggressive. At 75x you won’t spend it - unless you deliberately choose to do so. So a 50/50 may make sense for the roughly 33x that would be a very conservative retirement plan. But maybe the other half should be in taxable stocks so your heirs get step up b...
by milktoast
Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Invest vs pay off student loan in 1 year period
Replies: 43
Views: 2106

Re: Invest vs pay off student loan in 1 year period

Max your 401k. If you can hit $19k in four months, you should easily reach 19k again in 2020 over 12 months.

Then pay down the loan with whatever additional savings you can come up with in 2020.

The 19k a year is a use it or lose it. The extra loan payments are always an option.
by milktoast
Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When Did You Ease Up On Saving Aggressively?
Replies: 170
Views: 13557

Re: When Did You Ease Up On Saving Aggressively?

I'm happy but my wife would like to ease up hence my original question. Just need to find that balance I suppose. :beer Maybe loosen up a little. Worst financial decision you can make is to give half your money to lawyers and split the rest. How much longer do you intend to work? If a 0% return ove...
by milktoast
Mon Aug 19, 2019 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1528
Views: 157360

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

If you think the fed is going to fight inflation, you are wrong. There is no way the fed is going to fight inflation, I don't even care how high it is. The fed is going to take rates back to zero no matter what the CPI numbers are because the economy is going into recession even as inflation rises....
by milktoast
Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quick (without looking) what do you think YTD total return of US Bond Index is?
Replies: 46
Views: 4124

Re: Quick (without looking) what do you think YTD total return of US Bond Index is?

6% bnd
Vtiax > bnd > small cap

That’s my guess

Edit. Hated investment. I’ll guess non currency hedged international bonds. I know that’s wrong, but why not.
by milktoast
Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Whats the Best 12-18 month CD
Replies: 12
Views: 1236

Re: Whats the Best 12-18 month CD

Good resource is nerdwallet https://www.nerdwallet.com/best/banking/cd-rates I opened a Marcus 13month no penalty at 2.35% last week. But now it's only 2.25 for 7months. Their standard are still at 2.4%. My preference for Marcus is simply because I already have a high yield savings there and I'm lazy.
by milktoast
Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12294
Views: 2098657

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

anon_investor wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:08 pm
Damn pay day is tomorrow... I want to buy buy buy!
Tell me about it... I've got 0.7% of my portfolio coming in sometime between today and Friday. But I don't know when... sometimes it lands as early as the 13th and sometimes as late as the 18th... come on baby... need it today...
by milktoast
Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12294
Views: 2098657

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I know market timing is stupid, but I've been at my 1st job now for 1.5 years and it's felt like my portfolio has been spinning the wheels with the rest of the market. I've got a 401(k) and Roth with about even funds 85/15. Does anyone here think I need to move out of stocks until the big drop happ...
by milktoast
Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How can I accomplish "Locking in Gains"
Replies: 53
Views: 3513

Re: How can I accomplish "Locking in Gains"

You lock in gains when your heirs get a step up basis.
by milktoast
Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fallacy of Dollar Cost Averaging
Replies: 101
Views: 8683

Re: The fallacy of Dollar Cost Averaging

The term "Dollar Cost Averaging" was invented to describe periodic investments from a regular source of income, like a paycheck. The original intent was never to promote slowly dribbling a large sum into investments. That was my impression as well. If I could get my employer to just lump sum my pay...
by milktoast
Sat Aug 10, 2019 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "When Vanguard's Retirement Income Calculator Stopped Making Sense"
Replies: 23
Views: 4318

Re: "When Vanguard's Retirement Income Calculator Stopped Making Sense"

I lost access to their other calculator when I dropped from PAS.

That calculator was capable of dealing with arbitrary inputs.

I kind of miss it.

Any links to more flexible one online?
by milktoast
Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $100K increase in salary- help with AA
Replies: 3
Views: 875

Re: $100K increase in salary- help with AA

Ask Fidelity about 401k rollover. And be sure you rollover those IRA into 401k before you try to backdoor Roth. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Backdoor_Roth Subtract out your emergency fund. Then invest the retirement funds at your AA. Just do it. There is debate about fund placement. At a similar ...
by milktoast
Mon Aug 05, 2019 4:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buy During This Dip?
Replies: 99
Views: 12776

Re: Buy During This Dip?

nisiprius wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:45 pm

The S&P 500 closed below 1464.98, at 1,453.70, on November 9th, 2007.

In your opinion, was November 9th, 2007 (the blue dot on the chart) a good time to buy?
Depends on your timeframe. CAGR from then to today is roughly 5.7%. So sure, that was a good day to buy.
by milktoast
Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12294
Views: 2098657

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

This is painful to watch.

Which is funny because I'm in a very strong accumulation phase. Roughly 1% of my portfolio gets contributed every month.

But man, buying that 1% on Thursday hurts today. I have the urge to dump money in to fix the "mistake", but that would violate my plan. So ugh.
by milktoast
Mon Aug 05, 2019 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I pay off my Mortgage (yes, another)
Replies: 19
Views: 1928

Re: Should I pay off my Mortgage (yes, another)

Maybe. 2.875 is a really good rate. But let's look at your taxable account. Hmm... lots of assets highly correlated with income (company stock). That's trouble in my book - you have a mortgage, are worried about struggling to find a new job, and the most likely cause of needing a new job (company do...
by milktoast
Sat Aug 03, 2019 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What would you do - Large Commission (Bonus)
Replies: 43
Views: 3740

Re: What would you do - Large Commission (Bonus)

While i am sure that putting this money to work in stock market and let it grow would be better financial decision, we decided to pay off mortgage & be debt free. Its a great feeling. Now my focus is retirement and 529's for my kids. My monthly mortgage payment was $1873 and i was paying $2173. I j...
by milktoast
Fri Aug 02, 2019 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Complacency
Replies: 77
Views: 6337

Re: Boglehead Complacency

I have a question for the group. When we get moves like this, do you do small trades to correct the fact that your automatic contributions aren't moving you into balance? For instance, let's say my goal was 50/50 but I'm at 49 stocks / 51 bonds. And a monthly contribution is buying 50/50. But a 100/...
by milktoast
Thu Aug 01, 2019 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are You Rich?
Replies: 31
Views: 3346

Re: Are You Rich?

I was explaining the difference between rich and wealthy to my teenage daughter the other day. We are rich. Anything we need, we can have. Most of what we want, we can have. But only as long as I stay healthy and employed. Once being healthy and employed is no longer required to maintain your standa...
by milktoast
Thu Aug 01, 2019 10:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Emergency $: best in Bank CD or brokerage acct VMMXX?
Replies: 16
Views: 2063

Re: Emergency $: best in Bank CD or brokerage acct VMMXX?

I would check out Nerdwallet list of high yield savings.

Right now, I'm using Marcus at 2.15%. That's better than your 30 day CD and only 2-3 days of transfer delay from my checking account. Sometimes it will hit in a single day.
by milktoast
Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Pre-Retirement Portfolio Review
Replies: 14
Views: 2254

Re: Pre-Retirement Portfolio Review, ‘Won the Game’?

Your expenses are at 1.5% of portfolio. If you stay above 0% real return, you can sustain that real withdrawal rate until you are 115 years old.

Don’t do anything crazy and your portfolio will see you through to the end.
by milktoast
Tue Jul 30, 2019 7:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Free Bonds in Taxable
Replies: 21
Views: 2319

Re: Tax Free Bonds in Taxable

Bluquark, thank you for the clarification. Gives me something to think about.
by milktoast
Tue Jul 30, 2019 2:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Free Bonds in Taxable
Replies: 21
Views: 2319

Re: Tax Free Bonds in Taxable

I'm confused by the muni in taxable vs BND in deferred math. Maybe someone can help me understand. Right now I'm also in 37+3.8 = 40.8% income bracket with 20+3.8 = 23.8% capital gains. Assume 100,000 in VTSAX and 100,000 in muni/BND. Only difference is placement. 100,000 VTSAX in taxable costs me 1...
by milktoast
Tue Jul 30, 2019 9:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do I convert part of my Rollover IRA to my Roth?
Replies: 16
Views: 1125

Re: How do I convert part of my Rollover IRA to my Roth?

TaxingAccount wrote:
Tue Jul 30, 2019 9:47 am
No, you can't. If you convert in Q4 the taxes on that conversion are still due in the first 3 quarters.
That’s not the case. But you may end up filing form 2210 to show you complied with the “Annualized income installment method”. https://www.irs.gov/publications/p505
by milktoast
Mon Jul 29, 2019 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help choose between High deductible HSA plan vs PPO -- 2nd child expected
Replies: 14
Views: 702

Re: Help choose between High deductible HSA plan vs PPO -- 2nd child expected

It's almost impossible for the PPO to save you money. HSA costs you $5215 in premiums. Deductible of $3000. Out-of-pocket max of $6570/$12000. Employer contributes $1500. - So a zero health care year costs you $5215-$1500=$3715. - Exactly at $3000 costs you $5215+3000-1500=$6715 - An in-network max ...
by milktoast
Sat Jul 27, 2019 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in a non-qualified plan
Replies: 16
Views: 1054

Re: Investing in a non-qualified plan

OP. I'm assuming you are talking about a Non-Qualified Deferred Compensation (NQDC) plan. I put a large amount of money into one of these each year. My feeling is that it is designed to force execs to care about the long term health of the corporation. In my case, I have to choose the withdrawal per...
by milktoast
Fri Jul 26, 2019 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Another on the right track question
Replies: 15
Views: 1202

Re: Another on the right track question

Hey look, it’s me in 1999... if that dot com bubble hadn’t burst I’d have retired to a beach mansion 15 years ago. Make a plan to max out your pre-tax contribution and get out of individual stocks. Or at least dilute them. Start selling your company’s stock. You have plenty of upside from the unvest...
by milktoast
Fri Jul 26, 2019 11:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Way out of financial catastrophe?
Replies: 80
Views: 11168

Re: Way out of financial catastrophe?

Agree with above.

Do absolute minimum to get it water tight and retain OC. Then stop.

Wait until you are able to sleep at least 6 hours a night. Then reassess the situation.

Your income can bail you out over time. But you simply don’t have funds to finish right now.
by milktoast
Fri Jul 26, 2019 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Has anyone ever used the 60 day rollover from their IRA?
Replies: 22
Views: 1264

Re: Has anyone ever used the 60 day rollover from their IRA?

Don’t do it. Or at least delay as much as possible. Talk to construction lender to find out the latest possible date you can stay on that loan. Frankly this surprises me. Why do you need more funds to convert? Typically the LTV and income requirements for construction loan is more conservative. Seem...
by milktoast
Mon Jul 22, 2019 5:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with Vesting Stock
Replies: 17
Views: 1259

Re: What to do with Vesting Stock

Are you fully vested out? If so, maybe keep some shares. If not, divest as soon as possible. The unvested shares will give you access to upside if your company does well. A long time ago, I watched my 40% vested stock drop in value from $10M to $2M during the six month lockout period. So I held for ...
by milktoast
Sun Jul 21, 2019 3:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dynamic Spending model and Vanguard advisor advice
Replies: 30
Views: 1720

Re: Dynamic Spending model and Vanguard advisor advice

Dynamic spending model is completely reasonable. Especially if travel is a key objective.

Unlike percentage withdrawl, it's not a dramatic shift in real spending every year. Good years give her more expensive trips. Bad years are staycation.

And it has higher success rate than straight 4%.
by milktoast
Tue Jul 16, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Company Stock at discount - immediate sell
Replies: 16
Views: 1027

Re: Company Stock at discount - immediate sell

Or, perhaps if you choose to do so, keep the amount modest and consider the stock to be very risky - since the value of the stock and your employment are often very ties together. I agree. But as I said, that's my spiel to junior engineers. And if they haven't seen 2000 and 2008, they don't really ...
by milktoast
Tue Jul 16, 2019 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Not Another Pay off the House or Invest...
Replies: 29
Views: 2616

Re: Not Another Pay off the House or Invest...

OP, I agree with your math.

There is liquidity risk with paying off the mortgage. But from the perspective of long term return, you can't get that rate from bonds right now.
by milktoast
Tue Jul 16, 2019 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Company Stock at discount - immediate sell
Replies: 16
Views: 1027

Re: Company Stock at discount - immediate sell

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=249832 is interesting There is a huge win for him. He should keep maxing his ESPP and selling the day after purchase. Think of it as a cash bonus from the employer rather than an investment. I'll give my spiel that I give to new engineers on why they ...
by milktoast
Mon Jul 15, 2019 6:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Poor financial advisor performance
Replies: 71
Views: 4324

Re: Poor financial advisor performance

Vanguard's advisor service is cheaper 0.3%. Less personal service than Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, but way cheaper. Vanguard advisor main role seems to be creating a plan and force you to stick with it. I was one of the first advisory accounts (signed up at launch) and was relatively happy with Van...