Search found 266 matches

by milktoast
Tue Aug 11, 2020 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 370
Views: 25129

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

How much is a $20 gold double eagle worth? How does the cashier know what your specific 1908-S is worth? The value is right on the coin. To a cashier, a $20 gold double eagle is worth exactly $20. In the 80's, my little brother spent my pristine 1879 silver dollar on a slurpee. It was legal tender ...
by milktoast
Tue Aug 04, 2020 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Marcus lowers savings APY from 1.05% to 0.8%
Replies: 29
Views: 2510

Re: Marcus lowers savings APY from 1.05% to 0.8%

Thanks. Just jumped on and moved cash that I don't need in the next month to the 0.9% no penalty 7 month CD.

Still have one more month on my 2.35% no penalty 13 month CD. When that CD expires, I don't know... no good place for cash.
by milktoast
Sun Aug 02, 2020 11:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Financial Advisors a Complete and Total Waste of Money?
Replies: 153
Views: 8816

Re: Are Financial Advisors a Complete and Total Waste of Money?

No. They aren’t always a waste of money. When I was much younger, I hired an advisor at smith barney. It was something like 1.75% AUM. Totally worth it. I was a disaster. Cash and random stocks. But more importantly: young kids, stay at home wife, and... no will, no life insurance, no 529, no IRA fo...
by milktoast
Sun Aug 02, 2020 9:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Borrow from family or sell equities for cash
Replies: 43
Views: 3701

Re: Borrow from family or sell equities for cash

It only takes a week to get cash from taxable brokerage to checking at brick and mortar.

I went through a similar squeeze lately.

Don’t pay early and run cash accounts down. Wouldn’t be surprised if you don’t need to sell in taxable at all.
by milktoast
Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Still using total bond market?
Replies: 153
Views: 19280

Re: Still using total bond market?

When people on this thread are saying they’re still using Total Bond Market or whatnot during these low-yielding times, are they/you meaning you’re sticking with what you already own (thus simply not selling), or that you’re actually putting more money into TBM? That seems like a big but unaddresse...
by milktoast
Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is your game plan as market is reaching its previous all time high?
Replies: 135
Views: 12991

Re: What is your game plan as market is reaching its previous all time high?

TL;DR - I'm mostly buying bonds with new contributions and when we reach new highs, it will likely trigger a rebalance trade. My plan calls for not buying bonds when SP500 is in correction, shifting target AA towards stocks every time I reach a point where my plan calls for shifting more contributio...
by milktoast
Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insiders Who Nailed Market Bottom Are Starting to Sell Stocks
Replies: 33
Views: 4702

Re: Insiders Who Nailed Market Bottom Are Starting to Sell Stocks

That graph has four peaks in a year. My company allows me to sell during the 3 weeks after earnings are announced, four times a year. Every year, there is a larger peak. Every year my company vests RSU at the same time. Only thing I see there that is at all interesting is the number of insiders who ...
by milktoast
Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns
Replies: 73
Views: 3929

Re: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns

Barsoom wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:09 pm
One thing that caught my eye was this article from Philosophical Economics on Total Return EPS.
Interesting. Still missed the mark, but the 2020 SP500 low (so far) of 2250 is only a hundred points above the prediction of 2150. So... decent prediction.
by milktoast
Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Tulip Mania?
Replies: 48
Views: 8115

Re: New Tulip Mania?

Maybe people are getting confused about ZM, ZI, ZOOM. Three different tickers for three different companies, all named Zoom.
by milktoast
Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns
Replies: 73
Views: 3929

Re: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns

I think this is the most interesting part about this article is the graph of R^2 over time. Not sure why the correlation with CAPE has increased from 1960-1975, but it's interesting. Another article for predicting future returns is https://financial-charts.effingapp.com/ Just wish they would update ...
by milktoast
Mon Jul 20, 2020 8:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: It is okay to spend money on depreciating assets?
Replies: 51
Views: 3656

Re: It is okay to spend money on depreciating assets?

Edit: tried to simplify my actual spreadsheet by omitting social security and some other stuff, messed it up. So deleting.
by milktoast
Mon Jul 20, 2020 8:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: It is okay to spend money on depreciating assets?
Replies: 51
Views: 3656

Re: It is okay to spend money on depreciating assets?

Yes it's ok. Ideally you want a lifestyle that you can maintain from your working years through your retirement. If you spend all your money while you are working and end up with absolutely nothing when you retire, that's not good. But it's equally not good to save and save and save during your work...
by milktoast
Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TLH for 2020----Just checking my strategy
Replies: 18
Views: 839

Re: TLH for 2020----Just checking my strategy

I had the same question recently. When you have realized losses, it usually doesn't make sense to TGH unless you want to change your holdings. The rolled forward loss will reduce $3000 off your income each year, which is more valuable than savings against long term capital gains. And the rest of the...
by milktoast
Sun Jul 19, 2020 2:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Treating Taxable and Tax-Deferred as One
Replies: 13
Views: 1263

Re: Treating Taxable and Tax-Deferred as One

If you intend to sell soon, your concern is definitely valid. But if you just need a backup plan, don’t forget that you can sell stocks in taxable then do a matching transaction in tax advantaged. After the transaction you will have same amount of stocks and less bonds. Effectively you sold bonds. J...
by milktoast
Sun Jul 19, 2020 2:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Re-balancing via future contributions
Replies: 12
Views: 885

Re: Re-balancing via future contributions

When my taxable started growing, I moved out of target date funds in the 401k. That allows me to only buy stocks in taxable and balance in 401k. If you have a decent bond fund and sp500 Fund in 401k, you can invest in that along with taxable to make your overall AA match the target date fund. It’s m...
by milktoast
Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 2% Real Returns, 2% inflation reasonable for estimating?
Replies: 42
Views: 2624

Re: 2% Real Returns, 2% inflation reasonable for estimating?

Yeah, that seems reasonable. I'm currently using 0.8/CAPE for stocks and 10yr TIPS for bonds. So my model is 1.9% real for 75/25 portfolio. Hopefully my model is conservative on average. It's hard to imagine bonds losing 0.7% real every year, but that's my model. I'm using TVM based formula to estim...
by milktoast
Tue Jul 14, 2020 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: New home construction Loan
Replies: 3
Views: 227

Re: New home construction Loan

Does the preferred builder have a lender that they have worked with before? Construction loans are not like regular loans. 3.7% isn't a terrible rate for a construction loan in my opinion. But depending on the lender and builder, you can have impedance mismatches on when the builder requires payment...
by milktoast
Tue Jul 14, 2020 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I wait on BNDW?
Replies: 5
Views: 415

Re: Should I wait on BNDW?

It's a fund of funds.

Vanguard Total International Bond ETF 51.10% $142.8 billion
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF 48.90% $269.0 billion

So I wouldn't worry about AUM causing it to fail. You are paying extra 0.06% ER vs holding a 50/50 of the underlying.
by milktoast
Mon Jul 13, 2020 5:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Helping employer modify 401k plan // Mega Backdoor Roth
Replies: 11
Views: 534

Re: Helping employer modify 401k plan // Mega Backdoor Roth

Use the top 20% definition and adopt a limit on HCE contribution percentage to being no more than 2% higher than the ACP of the NHCE from the prior year.

[Edit: strike incorrect information, this isn't my area of expertise.]
by milktoast
Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the stock market up? [thread multi-merge]
Replies: 521
Views: 21286

Re: How is this possible -- stock market continues to soar.

The rally is largely driven by tech. If people run out of money to spend on anything, tech will suffer. But if everyone is stuck at home and not out of money, tech will do well. The expanded unemployment and stimulus helps reduce odds of everyone running out of money. And on the other side, the peop...
by milktoast
Sat Jul 11, 2020 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Were You Around During Dotcom Bubble?
Replies: 182
Views: 11307

Re: Were You Around During Dotcom Bubble?

Some people have the idea that risk tolerance is a fixed number like 60/40 or 40/60 stock and bonds. But market risk changes all the time and if you ignore those changes, your risk level can change dramatically as you stick to your 60/40 allocation. That’s true. But not completely. Holding a consta...
by milktoast
Sat Jul 11, 2020 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Were You Around During Dotcom Bubble?
Replies: 182
Views: 11307

Re: Were You Around During Dotcom Bubble?

ICQ and AOL AIM was how people chatted along with other great platforms like Usenet and IRC. Ahh, the good old days. Are you kidding me? AOL hooking up to the internet was one of the worst moments in modern history. Suddenly groups like comp.compilers went from discussions of graph theory to questi...
by milktoast
Fri Jul 10, 2020 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"
Replies: 55
Views: 6050

Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

So Japanese stocks beat US stocks by 9% CAGR for 4 straight decades and made up 40% of the international index by the late 1980s. As far as I can tell the US has not beaten almost any stock market in the world for 4 straight decades. So it shouldn't surprise anyone looking back to the 1990s that US...
by milktoast
Thu Jul 09, 2020 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rightful owners" of stocks and the pandemic
Replies: 22
Views: 2072

Re: "Rightful owners" of stocks and the pandemic

I've been thinking about the unimpaired capital since March. On March 20th, I moved money from Vanguard total bond into equities. Took a 5% haircut on total bond vs today. Got 28% discount on equity vs today. So good trade. But that short sharp blip down in total bond makes me think. If the fed hadn...
by milktoast
Wed Jul 08, 2020 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"
Replies: 55
Views: 6050

Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

It's been a rough decade. But I'm staying with 28% of equities in VTIAX (total international) and the rest in VTSAX (total US).

Honestly, I'm questioning why my US stocks aren't under performing places like New Zealand which is back to packed stadiums full of cheering fans. Feels like a bubble.
by milktoast
Sat Jul 04, 2020 1:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Manager vs. Direct report salary issues
Replies: 151
Views: 10303

Re: Manager vs. Direct report salary issues

I feel like this is question I can pose here: For the experienced IT/tech leaders, was your salary highest in your org once you were at the director/sr. Director/VP level? Or did gaps still persist then too? I’m on tech ladder but can answer question. All the way up to VP this happens regularly in ...
by milktoast
Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blockchain: Disruption of Financial Intermediaries
Replies: 23
Views: 1822

Re: Blockchain: Disruption of Financial Intermediaries

First what is blockchain. It’s just an open ledger with the ability for all readers to see the full ledger and have cryptographic guarantees that every transaction in the ledger was accepted by majority of writers. Blockchain done like bitcoin is highly inefficient and the transaction rate is poor. ...
by milktoast
Sat Jul 04, 2020 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Manager vs. Direct report salary issues
Replies: 151
Views: 10303

Re: Manager vs. Direct report salary issues

I’m in software. As an IC there have been times when my comp was twice what my manager made. The ones who cared struggled. The ones who were excited to have a high impact IC on their team did well. Stop thinking about your relative comp. Start thinking about what your high impact IC can help your te...
by milktoast
Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Safe withdrawal rate and portfolio growth
Replies: 11
Views: 856

Re: Safe withdrawal rate and portfolio growth

Whatever withdrawal method you use and stay close to that range, I would expect the portfolio to continue to grow, but what would that look like over a 20 to 30 year retirement? Nobody can answer that question. The 4% SWR is based on the worst historical sequence which depleted the portfolio to 0 a...
by milktoast
Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Safe withdrawal rate and portfolio growth
Replies: 11
Views: 856

Re: Safe withdrawal rate and portfolio growth

There are many schemes based on dynamic withdrawal rather than a set 4% of initial account adjusted for inflation each year. https://www.kitces.com/blog/dynamic-retirement-spending-small-but-permanent-variable-adjustments/ https://www.kitces.com/blog/the-ratcheting-safe-withdrawal-rate-a-more-domina...
by milktoast
Thu Jul 02, 2020 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Checking my mortgage vs bond understanding
Replies: 39
Views: 1453

Re: Checking my mortgage vs bond understanding

Looking at the liquidity side. You have $100k in cash. And you have $400k of stock in taxable account. And you have $170k of BND in 401k. So worst case, you spend the $100k in cash. Then you sell your taxable stock at a 50% discount for $200k. Then move your $170k of BND in 401k over to stock to red...
by milktoast
Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 457
Views: 26693

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

These answers are based on google sheets =PMT(rate,30,100,0,0). So maybe they are wrong because I don't know what I'm doing. A consistent CAGR of 1.2% is sufficient for 4% SWR. But due to volatility, you'll need to beat 1.2% average if any years are below that level. 10yr TIPS won't get you there wi...
by milktoast
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I thinking about my stock options correctly?
Replies: 15
Views: 1083

Re: Am I thinking about my stock options correctly?

But I have no idea what the cash implication of AMT is, so that seems like a black hole. The delta between your strike price and the FMV of the stock is your AMT gain. You can assume that AMT tax will be about 25% of the AMT gain. The AMT rate only has two marginal rates 26% and 28%. And it only ki...
by milktoast
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I thinking about my stock options correctly?
Replies: 15
Views: 1083

Re: Am I thinking about my stock options correctly?

Definitely don't exercise and hold near the IPO. That's how you lose your house due to AMT. I would suggest figuring out whether you are willing to buy stock in your company at the price of $2 + AMT rate on gain. If that seems like a good investment, then go for it. This isn't typical boglehead advi...
by milktoast
Sun Jun 28, 2020 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing vs working
Replies: 67
Views: 5274

Re: Investing vs working

SS is not an investment. It is a governmental social program. Very important for retirement in USA. And I approve of it in every way. But SS is not investment income. It’s difficult to join the investor class even defined by the very low bar in this thread (lifetime nominal investment earnings highe...
by milktoast
Fri Jun 26, 2020 4:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Revisiting Wash Sale: Funds that track same index is Not Substantially Identical?
Replies: 40
Views: 1362

Re: Revisiting Wash Sale: Funds that track same index is Not Substantially Identical?

Why take the risk? It might be fine, but what does it gain you? You can pair VTSAX with FXAIX/FSMAX in an 80/20 ratio and end with exactly the same return. But using three securities that nobody would claim are substantially identical. Ditto with VTIAX and FTIHX. I'm sure there are lots of other pai...
by milktoast
Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current safe withdrawal rate or slightly aggressive withdrawal rate
Replies: 27
Views: 2340

Re: Current safe withdrawal rate or slightly aggressive withdrawal rate

Why did you decide to use 1.1% + 0.5/CAPE for stocks? 1/CAPE (or e/p) is much more standard. It's arbitrary. 1/CAPE over 50 years was causing my projected withdrawals to go up when the market went down. And I didn't like that. So I cut the responsiveness to CAPE in half and then added 1.1% to maint...
by milktoast
Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current safe withdrawal rate or slightly aggressive withdrawal rate
Replies: 27
Views: 2340

Re: Current safe withdrawal rate or slightly aggressive withdrawal rate

This problem is why I use a time value of money (TVM) based calculation for my planning. I don't know what the safe withdrawal rate is, but I can enter an assumption about forward returns and lifespan then compute withdrawal. If a given year withdraws "too much" based on not meeting forward return a...
by milktoast
Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: High net worth portfolio advice
Replies: 154
Views: 19885

Re: High net worth portfolio advice

I know five other engineers who had similar exits in 1999. By far the happiest with his outcome got $16m. Bought home for $2m, bought spia annuity with $6m, and put the rest in total stock market. Not tax efficient. But he says that he has annuity payments to cover every bill, dividends to cover eve...
by milktoast
Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Top 10 Things Bogleheads Get Wrong - White Coat Investor
Replies: 143
Views: 13880

Re: Top 10 Things Bogleheads Get Wrong - White Coat Investor

Agree on "Liquidity is Critical".

I'm always amazed when people give advice to avoid paying down mortgage to increase liquidity beyond one year expense in cash EF.

If I've burned through a year of cash and I'm still heading down, that house is going to start looking a lot more liquid.
by milktoast
Mon Jun 22, 2020 5:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do you need more than 1 bond fund? Vanguard thinks so...
Replies: 23
Views: 2449

Re: Do you need more than 1 bond fund? Vanguard thinks so...

This is the standard vanguard bond mix. It's what they put me in when I was using PAS. Seems to be a tilt away from long term treasuries plus adding some international bonds (currency hedged). I have no opinion on whether this is a good bond mix or not. Was fine when I was in PAS. It is odd that van...
by milktoast
Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I ever hold ESPP until a qualifying disposition?
Replies: 43
Views: 2418

Re: Should I ever hold ESPP until a qualifying disposition?

Please talk to the folks that also had tech rocket ships circa 1999. I sell every time they vest. Every time. And the times I sell and the stock jumps 15% a week later. No big deal. It’s one of those skills you learn after going from “I just gotta rest and vest 1 more year and then I’m retired at 3...
by milktoast
Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wirecard scandal / Germany's Enron
Replies: 21
Views: 2602

Re: Wirecard scandal / Germany's Enron

thx1138 wrote:
Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:13 pm
Well of course, VGTSX is the largest international index fund in the world. (And the 11th largest mutual fund overall). If they didn’t own that much they wouldn’t be an “index fund”.
So that implies they own 1.5% of all ex-US, right?

That’s actually kinda amazing.
by milktoast
Thu Jun 18, 2020 11:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond funds in Taxable/Tax Deferred/Roth
Replies: 24
Views: 1485

Re: Bond funds in Taxable/Tax Deferred/Roth

Federal and state tax bracket? That matters a lot here.

Essentially you have to figure out the after tax yield of various bond funds.
by milktoast
Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Questions on Mega Backdoor Roth
Replies: 46
Views: 2301

Re: Questions on Mega Backdoor Roth

I roll over every six months and pay tax on earnings. There is a phone call and a fee involved with each rollover (for me). The taxes are simple, just put the values into turbotax. Part of the reason I don't send earnings to traditional IRA is that I keep my traditional IRA empty to allow for backdo...
by milktoast
Tue Jun 16, 2020 6:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you rent your house to a famous athlete?
Replies: 104
Views: 8077

Re: Would you rent your house to a famous athlete?

Vaguely reminds me of a funny conversation with somewhat crazy neighbor. Me: are you going to rent out your suburban house while you are away for 18 months? Her: no. if I could find a diplomat to rent it then yes, but I don't really have time to find one Me (in my head): we are 3000 miles from DC an...
by milktoast
Tue Jun 16, 2020 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Stock Market becoming Casino ?
Replies: 42
Views: 3801

Re: Is Stock Market becoming Casino ?

It's not a casino. In a casino, the expected value (and standard deviation) of every bet is knowable up front. Your model may or may not be precise. For instance, if your model accounts for every card in the blackjack shoe which has been revealed, you'll eventually be asked to leave. If you are buyi...
by milktoast
Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Living disclaimer trust - which assets to disclaim?
Replies: 6
Views: 416

Re: Living disclaimer trust - which assets to disclaim?

bsteiner wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 11:42 am
You can wait until the first spouse dies to decide how to invest the credit shelter trust.
Thanks for the response. Appreciate it.

Sounds like my advice to spouse needs to be “seek professional help if you outlive me. “
by milktoast
Sun Jun 14, 2020 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Living disclaimer trust - which assets to disclaim?
Replies: 6
Views: 416

Re: Living disclaimer trust - which assets to disclaim?

I’m actually in the middle of reworking my estate plan and found the article interesting thanks. In WA state with $6-$8m current estate. Married 50 and 47. So if one of us dies soon, odds are credit shelter trust would be held for a long time. Looking at https://dor.wa.gov/taxes-rates/other-taxes/es...