Search found 1670 matches

by patrick
Tue May 07, 2019 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: point of maximal pessimism for international investing
Replies: 66
Views: 5341

Re: point of maximal pessimism for international investing

The level of pessimism for international investing is certainly quite high, but as with everything else the maximum can only be known in hindsight.
by patrick
Fri Apr 26, 2019 5:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dump international?
Replies: 228
Views: 14821

Re: Passive Indexing in America?

Semi-strong form EMH is that all publically available information is incorporated in the market price. Here SEC disclosure laws literally affect the ambit, the radius of what is publically known. Strong Form EMH is that all information public and private is incorporated into the market price. Empir...
by patrick
Fri Apr 26, 2019 1:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dump international?
Replies: 228
Views: 14821

Re: Passive Indexing in America?

The difference between an opaque market and the SEC's enforced disclosure is that you redirect the costs to the party who is in the best position to bear it. In an opaque market, market participants will bear the cost of price discovery. In a market such as the US, the public firms bear the cost. A...
by patrick
Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dump international?
Replies: 228
Views: 14821

Re: Passive Indexing in America?

Before going into the details, I'll note that you are talking one single country in the international index, and one which accounts for less than 10% of it. Whether you invest in a capitalist economy or command economy would similarly make no difference, as the market would simply account for the di...
by patrick
Wed Apr 24, 2019 4:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dump international?
Replies: 228
Views: 14821

Re: Dump international?

1 minor correction - Replace 'World' with '10 Countries' and now I agree with everything else you said. For the record, can we please stop saying "World" or "Global" when we are really just taking about a handful of countries? Like, the World has 180+ countries. Sorry guys, let's get the technicali...
by patrick
Wed Apr 24, 2019 2:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dump international?
Replies: 228
Views: 14821

Re: Dump international?

Australian stocks have dramatically outperformed US stocks since 1900. Why not an all-Australia portfolio? because to some of them, it's the USA! and to other group, they like to chase performance because why not. Target Date Funds are a perfect portfolio for those people. I created a whole thread ...
by patrick
Wed Apr 24, 2019 1:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dump international?
Replies: 228
Views: 14821

Re: Dump international?

Australian stocks have dramatically outperformed US stocks since 1900. Why not an all-Australia portfolio?
by patrick
Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to invest for early retirement?
Replies: 16
Views: 1391

Re: Where to invest for early retirement?

You can access the Roth 401k basis st any age as well if you rollover to Roth, after which it follows the Roth IRA withdrawal rules which count it as earnings last.
by patrick
Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows 7 end of support - Jan 14, 2020
Replies: 69
Views: 3624

Re: Windows 7 end of support - Jan 14, 2020

8foot7 wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2019 9:24 am
I would not treat a family computer the same way — that would need to be upgraded because everyone clicks on everything and says Yes to every dialog box.
If the machine is used that way then it won't be safe with Windows 10 either.
by patrick
Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consensus on I Bonds for 2019?
Replies: 67
Views: 10680

Re: Consensus on I Bonds for 2019?

If you had purchased Vanguard Prime in November 2011 and held to the present, your yield over the past 7.5 years would have been 4.4% cumulative or 0.58% per year. The I bond rate is attractive by comparison to that, especially when you also consider the avoidance of state income tax and deferral o...
by patrick
Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consensus on I Bonds for 2019?
Replies: 67
Views: 10680

Re: Consensus on I Bonds for 2019?

I'm not a buyer of I bonds. Let me challenge the prevailing view on this thread. I bought once in the past (Nov 2011 period) when I saw that the composite rate was 4.6%. 2 years later, when the composite was 1.76%, I dumped it. Back then, during that low rate period (banks like Discover savings wer...
by patrick
Tue Mar 26, 2019 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why take the risk with equities?
Replies: 122
Views: 8108

Re: Why take the risk with equities?

The reason being annuities provide the highest SWR, especially if they are inflation adjusted. Would you explain how you have come to that conclusion? In the overwhelming majority of historic 30 year periods, for instance, the average 'SWR' was 5-6%. Compare that to a CPI-linked SPIA where the curr...
by patrick
Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need some help with slow folders in Windows
Replies: 33
Views: 1717

Re: Need some help with slow folders in Windows

This seems more like a software configuration issue -- renaming should be very fast, and a hardware problem would slow down everything else too. It is not obvious to me what would cause this, but my first guess is that you might have (perhaps without realizing it) installed a shell extension that i...
by patrick
Thu Mar 21, 2019 5:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 3% on Checking - Redneck Bank, not a joke
Replies: 19
Views: 3147

Re: 3% on Checking - Redneck Bank, not a joke

You can get a better deal at Orion Federal Credit Union. They pay 4% on checking with a $30,000 cap and only require 8 purchases per month.
by patrick
Wed Mar 20, 2019 4:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need some help with slow folders in Windows
Replies: 33
Views: 1717

Re: Need some help with slow folders in Windows

This seems more like a software configuration issue -- renaming should be very fast, and a hardware problem would slow down everything else too. It is not obvious to me what would cause this, but my first guess is that you might have (perhaps without realizing it) installed a shell extension that is...
by patrick
Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any credit cards that can beat the Citi doublecash?
Replies: 64
Views: 6422

Re: Any credit cards that can beat the Citi doublecash?

midareff wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:13 pm
Uber Visa for 4% at restaurants and 3% at hotels.
Yet somehow it only gives 2% on Uber!
by patrick
Sun Mar 03, 2019 8:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Picking a VPN -- 2019
Replies: 9
Views: 1706

Re: Picking a VPN -- 2019

You should first ask yourself what you are trying to keep secret and who you are trying to keep it secret from. If you want to keep your online banking passwords secret, regular HTTPS should be sufficient to prevent it from being intercepted in transit. However, you also need to make sure there is n...
by patrick
Wed Feb 27, 2019 11:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best online high yield savings suggestions
Replies: 34
Views: 3808

Re: Best online high yield savings suggestions

https://www.doctorofcredit.com/high-int ... gs-to-get/ has an extensive list including even higher interest rates than you mentioned.
by patrick
Mon Feb 18, 2019 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is 401k maxing preferred over taxable?
Replies: 79
Views: 6350

Re: Why is 401k maxing preferred over taxable?

My pretax 401k contribution - $19,000 Company matching dollars - $10,000 Spouse pretax 401k contribution $19,000 Spouse matching dollars - $5000 My posttax 401k contribution - $32,000 Spouse posttax 401k contribution - $32,000 HSA - $7000 For us, Roth IRA contributions are not applicable as our inc...
by patrick
Sun Feb 17, 2019 6:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Techies provide me best practices
Replies: 21
Views: 1887

Re: Techies provide me best practices

Why risk cloud storage? For the same reason you put money in the bank instead of under your mattress. Unless the computer you are using to store documents is never connected to the Internet, and never runs user-installed software, you almost certainly have a weaker security policy locally than that...
by patrick
Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Blu-Ray drives vs DVD drives for data storage and archiving
Replies: 59
Views: 2771

Re: Blu-Ray drives vs DVD drives for data storage and archiving

I don't, personally, have a good answer on data preservation. I don't think it's a simple problem. With regard to both Blu-Ray and DVD, they are dying technologies: Samsung Gives Up on Blu-Ray, Will Not Release Any New Players in the US . How many years Blu-Ray has left before that will post a real...
by patrick
Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Blu-Ray drives vs DVD drives for data storage and archiving
Replies: 59
Views: 2771

Re: Blu-Ray drives vs DVD drives for data storage and archiving

Optical media are fairly expensive for large amounts of storage, and not very fast. Traditional hard drives are much cheaper $5c/GB is about the same price as hard drives, and unlike hard drives, blu-ray disks are a permanent storage medium. I give more details in my posts in the thread OP linked i...
by patrick
Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:01 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 730
Views: 93199

Re: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here

Finally joined the 2 comma club ... measured in Euros :happy
by patrick
Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Index Investing Just Betting on The U.S Economy?
Replies: 46
Views: 5282

Re: Is Index Investing Just Betting on The U.S Economy?

Thanks for your reply, Indexing definitely has historically been a succesful strategy in the entire world. For any one country, an index fund outperforms most active funds after fees. Is merely beating most active funds considered to be successful? I think the returns would be more important, you c...
by patrick
Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How "Safe" is Your Bond Fund?
Replies: 43
Views: 4137

Re: How "Safe" is Your Bond Fund?

As individual investors we just have to go by what's listed on the Fund page with regards to Term and Credit Risks. Who knows if there is a hidden Footnote deep somewhere in the Prospectus that the fund is much more risky than it appears. And generally people don't pay attention to credit risk if i...
by patrick
Sat Feb 09, 2019 5:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VUSXX vs FDIC insurance
Replies: 18
Views: 1581

Re: VUSXX vs FDIC insurance

It's possible for VUSXX to lose money without any default. While it has a very low duration, it is not zero. A surge increase in interest rates combined with massive withdrawals would lead to losses. That in itself would be an extreme event, but not quite as extreme as a default on treasuries or FDI...
by patrick
Thu Feb 07, 2019 3:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: World VCR production is ending next month. What to do with my old VHS tapes?
Replies: 69
Views: 8898

Re: World VCR production is ending next month. What to do with my old VHS tapes?

Hi All, Bumping this thread as I have recently been thinking of digitizing VHS tapes for my parents. Obviously, there are a lot of products that allow one to do so, but I am somewhat apprehensive of buying one as I feel as if my laptop is dated (Macbook Air 2013). Was hoping someone could chime in ...
by patrick
Sun Feb 03, 2019 9:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Incorrect 1099-INT [Insight], options besides calling bank?
Replies: 23
Views: 1414

Re: Incorrect 1099-INT [Insight], options besides calling bank?

Perhaps the interest from the last quarter of 2017 was not posted until January 1, 2018 and thus is counted towards the 2018 taxes?
by patrick
Sat Feb 02, 2019 5:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Citi Accelerate Savings 2.36% Annually???
Replies: 3
Views: 2341

Re: Citi Accelerate Savings 2.36% Annually???

It is legitimate but it is not the best rate out there. See https://www.doctorofcredit.com/high-int ... gs-to-get/ for an extensive list of the highest interest rates which includes 2.5% for basic savings and more with various restrictions
by patrick
Fri Feb 01, 2019 10:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Really need help with new computer purchase!
Replies: 89
Views: 3818

Re: Really need help with new computer purchase!

3. Laptop - I prefer desktop to laptop. If I get a laptop I will also need to purchase a dock station in order to use my monitor and keyboard. Besides, it seems laptops seem to break down more often than not vs desktop. summerof42. A) No, the laptop is better. You can carry it around. And, it is ch...
by patrick
Fri Feb 01, 2019 10:04 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Developed/emerging classification criteria
Replies: 3
Views: 258

Re: Developed/emerging classification criteria

Here are the classification criteria:

MSCI: https://www.msci.com/market-classification
FTSE: https://www.ftse.com/products/indices/c ... sification

Note that Vanguard's funds (in the US) now use the FTSE indexes which classify South Korea as developed.
by patrick
Fri Feb 01, 2019 9:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Really need help with new computer purchase!
Replies: 89
Views: 3818

Re: Really need help with new computer purchase!

3. Laptop - I prefer desktop to laptop. If I get a laptop I will also need to purchase a dock station in order to use my monitor and keyboard. Besides, it seems laptops seem to break down more often than not vs desktop. summerof42. A) No, the laptop is better. You can carry it around. And, it is ch...
by patrick
Wed Jan 30, 2019 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need help with computer crash!
Replies: 90
Views: 4179

Re: Need help with computer crash!

One trick I have done in the past with failed hard drives as a last attempt to retrieve data... Place it into a plastic bag and then into the freezer for a hour or so, remove from freezer and bag and allow to come back tor om temperature so there is no consideration. Connect to PC to see if it will...
by patrick
Tue Jan 29, 2019 12:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: External Hard Drive?
Replies: 71
Views: 4134

Re: External Hard Drive?

I believe backing up to BlueRay is also overkill. If you regularly back up to two drives over your lifetime - you will always have a refreshed drive. I suppose if you think your heirs really care about all your pictures or something then blue-ray might make sense (in most cases, old photos that are...
by patrick
Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: NYSDCP 457(b) and NJ Residence
Replies: 2
Views: 307

Re: NYSDCP 457(b) and NJ Residence

Op Edited for clarity 457b is recognized under IRS tax laws, so I am not sure what you believe that you are not eligible for. If your wife works for NYS she has to pay taxes, lots of NYS workers live in NJ and has to follow all IRS rules irregardless of where you reside versus her work station. htt...
by patrick
Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 128
Views: 8577

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

China is the only one of your examples that actually is in emerging markets funds. Iraq and Libya never even qualified as frontier markets let alone emerging markets. Venezuela used to be in the emerging markets index but was kicked more than a decade ago. There is surely some risk the Chinese gove...
by patrick
Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 128
Views: 8577

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

There are issues with the Emerging Markets but there are things in their favor. First, I see first world countries often counted as EM. Really, I think of nations like South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia as first world nations. Thus you will get some the of world's leading companies in an Emer...
by patrick
Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 128
Views: 8577

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

I agree with you. Not wanting to invest in countries run by dictators is a completely rational decision. Ignoring what you’re actually investing in because it’s going to “diversify your portfolio” is turning a blind eye to the risk involved. History is replete with examples of how dictators behave ...
by patrick
Wed Dec 26, 2018 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS yield curve inverted at short end
Replies: 164
Views: 13943

Re: TIPS yield curve inverted at short end

Another thought, when I look at VTAPX (VG Short term inflation protected), they have only 15% in under 1 year TIPS. Wouldn't they have a larger percentage here and a compensating large longer term TIPS to get their duration? Or is this just a short term TIPS situation that is not expected to be a r...
by patrick
Wed Dec 26, 2018 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any Low Risk 4 % Return
Replies: 52
Views: 6559

Re: Is there any Low Risk 4 % Return

I get 6.17% with very low risk on my Digital Credit Union savings account.

Unfortunately it has a $1,000 maximum for that return.
by patrick
Sat Dec 22, 2018 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]
Replies: 332
Views: 159350

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]

So it’s pretty evident now that B&H investors who stuck it out during ‘08 reaped the rewards. If the market drops back to '08 levels , would this still be true? Seems like they would be right back where they started. What makes you think that will happen? Who knows what may happen...during the depr...
by patrick
Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are some non-doomsday scenarios where buy and hold index fund equities fails in the long run
Replies: 27
Views: 3102

Re: What are some non-doomsday scenarios where buy and hold index fund equities fails in the long run

Closely held companies could outcompete publicly traded companies. Fidelity beats Schwab and so on. The overall economy could be fine if the closely held companies steadily increase their productivity and hire lots of employees and pay them well. For this to take down the whole index, there would ne...
by patrick
Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A "super mega roll" of toilet paper = 6 "regular rolls:" is this possible?
Replies: 80
Views: 5618

Re: A "super mega roll" of toilet paper = 6 "regular rolls:" is this possible?

I'm not sure what counts as regular but I think 500 two-ply sheets is more than regular. The generic toilet paper from Dollar Tree has only 275 two-ply sheets on each roll, so that's what I'd consider as regular -- of course in that case I can buy four of them for a dollar!
by patrick
Wed Dec 12, 2018 4:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 4% APY credit unions
Replies: 6
Views: 1077

Re: 4% APY credit unions

You have to balance: 1. The hoops the credit union/bank want you to jump through to earn the higher rate 2. How long each month it will take you to complete said hoops 3. What the reward is for completing hoops 4. How many of these accounts you will need to satisfy your savings/earnings requirement...
by patrick
Wed Dec 12, 2018 4:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 4% APY credit unions
Replies: 6
Views: 1077

Re: 4% APY credit unions

These accounts were good when savings accounts were paying nothing, but now you can get 2.5% on a regular savings account so the hassle to reward just isn’t there. Many times they require significant spending on a credit card and usually their CCs suck so your losing on that side of the ball. I try...
by patrick
Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CD's safer than Bond Funds?
Replies: 15
Views: 1863

Re: CD's safer than Bond Funds?

Doesn't a CD (brokered or not) have a defined value: the face value plus the sum of all the interest payments? In contrast, doesn't the value of shares in a Bond fund fluctuate every day? -Mike Except for the uncommon no-penalty CDs, you only get that defined value if you hold the CD to maturity. B...
by patrick
Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?
Replies: 236
Views: 14307

Re: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?

Of course, STRIPS aren't speculation for a pension fund with nominal liabilities! You're changing the context of my statement. I have yet to hear a retail investor tell me of a nominal liability of his in 20 to 30 years that would be best covered by investing the money into an ETF of "equal-weighte...
by patrick
Sat Dec 08, 2018 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International underperformance - how to break it down
Replies: 52
Views: 4314

Re: International underperformance - how to break it down

Setting aside the last 10 years: 1. UK looks to be a disaster for decades because of Brexit. 2. Continental Europe: see above for cascading effects. 3. Japan: I’d love to hear an argument for future optimism. That’s nearly 60% of ex-US. To paraphrase Dirty Harry re:Europe + Japan: Do you feel lucky...
by patrick
Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VMMXX over.... CD, Bonds, HYS?
Replies: 17
Views: 1840

Re: VMMXX over.... CD, Bonds, HYS?

VMMXX is still behind the best deposit accounts. You can get at least 2.4% on a plain savings account and 3.6% on a 5 year CD.
by patrick
Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums
Replies: 96
Views: 7317

Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

By the way, at the time of this writing BTC is trading for $3737 a coin. Remember it was around $20,000 this time last year. How many of your "investments" have lost 80+% in a single year? Individual stocks, maybe. That is better than most of the other cryptocurrencies. For instance Ether fell from...