Search found 39 matches

by vel
Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax adv balanced fund vs savings acct
Replies: 5
Views: 340

Re: Tax adv balanced fund vs savings acct

But I’m less interested in defending this particular idea than I am in understanding the best approach to building something with a similar risk/reward profile (25% drawdown, 7-8% avg yearly return), that will be comparable to a savings acct in terms of taxes and maintenance.
by vel
Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax adv balanced fund vs savings acct
Replies: 5
Views: 340

Re: Tax adv balanced fund vs savings acct

Re: could you clarify? — the former. Benefit of balanced fund: stock exposure with bond ballast to get high returns rel to a savings or money mkt, but less volatility than pure stocks, in a fund that doesn’t require maintenance so as to mimic a savings acct functionally as much as possible. I’m not ...
by vel
Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax adv balanced fund vs savings acct
Replies: 5
Views: 340

Tax adv balanced fund vs savings acct

With willingness to take on risk as a given, and the obvious possibility of selling shares at a loss, what are the differences? Would need to pay marginal tax on savings acct gains, but a bal fund at least gives you a chance to reduce that to LTCG. In terms of tax, isn’t this better than a savings a...
by vel
Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice moving out of VTMFX due to munis risk
Replies: 6
Views: 1007

Re: Advice moving out of VTMFX due to munis risk

Why the $1500 tax bill in addition to capital gains?
by vel
Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice moving out of VTMFX due to munis risk
Replies: 6
Views: 1007

Advice moving out of VTMFX due to munis risk

Hi, I have my second-tier emergency fund in VTMFX (50% equity, 50% munis) and am considering changing course due to the possibility of states declaring bankruptcy etc... Thinking about going into cash unless someone could suggest a similar investment for my taxable account that is tax advantaged and...
by vel
Sat Feb 29, 2020 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility: IV and IVx
Replies: 0
Views: 263

Volatility: IV and IVx

I have an OTM call option for ABC with a current IV of 22.94% and exp date of 3/25. The IVx for 3/25 is 43.8%. If I want to get a theoretical P/L for 3/10 for example, how should I approach choosing a 3/10 IV estimate? If I understand, IVx is the volatility anticipated at expiration as an average ov...
by vel
Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In which order are shares sold?
Replies: 3
Views: 298

In which order are shares sold?

If 50 shares are purchased today and another 50 are purchased tomorrow, and then 51 shares are sold, is there a standard order in which the shares are sold? Are 50 sold from day 1, and 1 share from day 2 sold (i.e. oldest->newest)?
by vel
Wed Aug 21, 2019 2:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If contributing to 401K & traditional IRA, deductible in both cases irrespective of income?
Replies: 3
Views: 229

If contributing to 401K & traditional IRA, deductible in both cases irrespective of income?

I prefer the investment options in my traditional IRA over my 401K. Rather than contributing the 19K max to 401K, if I contributed 13K to 401K and 6K max to trad. IRA, would I be able to make the same tax deductions on the 19K as if I put all 19K to the 401K? Would this depend on my income, or in th...
by vel
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 513730

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

I am about 20 days in on the orig 40/60 upro/tmf. It drifted to 33/67. I am adding some more money to this today and having trouble deciding if I should maintain the 33/67, or use the new money to rebalance it back to 40/60. Since I am only 20 days in, I am leaning toward maintaining the 33/67 (in ...
by vel
Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 513730

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

I am about 20 days in on the orig 40/60 upro/tmf. It drifted to 33/67. I am adding some more money to this today and having trouble deciding if I should maintain the 33/67, or use the new money to rebalance it back to 40/60. Since I am only 20 days in, I am leaning toward maintaining the 33/67 (in k...
by vel
Fri Aug 02, 2019 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variance calculation - why are the deviations squared?
Replies: 16
Views: 939

Re: Variance calculation - why are the deviations squared?

Thanks for all the explanations. Also, an unrelated question (is it completely unrelated?) - Can anyone suggest a way to gain an intuitive understanding of the necessity of squaring in the Pythagorean theorem? I tried visualizing a right triangle, then imagined going "up a level" and built...
by vel
Fri Aug 02, 2019 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variance calculation - why are the deviations squared?
Replies: 16
Views: 939

Variance calculation - why are the deviations squared?

Variance is defined as the average of the squared deviations. I am trying to understand why the deviations are squared rather than taking the absolute values of the deviations.
by vel
Wed Jul 24, 2019 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 513730

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

If we enumerate the set of all possible undesirable final outcomes regarding the TMF/UPRO strategy, putting aside assessments of likelihood, perhaps we have: 1) They both get wiped out. 2) One of the two gets wiped out. 3) They both lose value in such a way and to such an extent that recovery is ext...
by vel
Sun Jul 07, 2019 9:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?
Replies: 62
Views: 5964

Re: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?

Great. I was hoping that would be the case.
by vel
Sun Jul 07, 2019 8:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?
Replies: 62
Views: 5964

Re: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?

hang on... for: If I went from 6% 401K contribution to 15%, my 401K would receive an additional $11,441/yr, $953/mo. But rather than that costing $953 extra/mo, it only costs $593 extra/mo. So I could increase my yearly 401K contribution by $11,441, but it would only cost me 62.2% of that amount. Is...
by vel
Sun Jul 07, 2019 5:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?
Replies: 62
Views: 5964

Re: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?

I don't understand how that works, but I'll get there...
by vel
Sun Jul 07, 2019 5:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?
Replies: 62
Views: 5964

Re: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?

...I mistakenly thought that the rates would only change if I was able to deduct myself into a lower bracket.
by vel
Sun Jul 07, 2019 5:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?
Replies: 62
Views: 5964

Re: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?

To clarify an earlier comment, I was surprised to learn that the relationship between 401K contribution and cost was non-linear in the sense that as contribution increases, the corresponding tax deductions cause the effective tax *rates* to decrease. According to the calculator: https://smartasset.c...
by vel
Sun Jul 07, 2019 5:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?
Replies: 62
Views: 5964

Re: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?

Mullins, the bonds are half of my 2nd tier emergency savings (50/50 stocks/bonds balanced fund) which constitutes most of my emergency savings. Out of context, 50/50 balanced is conservative, but as a substitute for what would otherwise be a money market fund, it's aggressive. Going 100% stocks ther...
by vel
Sun Jul 07, 2019 2:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?
Replies: 62
Views: 5964

Re: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?

On the savings-side, I didn't understand going into this that the relationship between a monthly increase in my 401K contribution and the monthly cost is non-linear. I mean, on some level I was aware of this, but definitely didn't have a feel for the concrete implications. For example (with the help...
by vel
Sat Jul 06, 2019 9:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?
Replies: 62
Views: 5964

Re: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?

quantAndHold this is awesome - thanks for taking the time to work that out! I currently pay my own health ins $420/mo, but I am negotiating with my employer to see if they could provide the insurance - if so, that frees up the $350/mo. I am trying to understand how contributing $800/mo to the 401K o...
by vel
Sat Jul 06, 2019 8:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?
Replies: 62
Views: 5964

Re: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?

Grt2bOutdoors, I posted before I read your last comment. I take your point.
by vel
Sat Jul 06, 2019 8:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?
Replies: 62
Views: 5964

Re: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?

I too agree that something needs to change in the next 5 years, but I'm quite happy working 30hrs and living in NYC for now. Once I go back to full-time, my employer will almost certainly not let me switch back to part-time again. The fact that I could go back to full-time, and could leave NYC is th...
by vel
Sat Jul 06, 2019 8:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?
Replies: 62
Views: 5964

Re: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?

I enjoy my apartment and neighborhood despite the high cost. Not looking to scale that down in the near future.
by vel
Sat Jul 06, 2019 8:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?
Replies: 62
Views: 5964

Re: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?

Yes, my rent is high and NYC is a $ vacuum. A few years ago, my rationale was that eventually I'll have had my fill, move on, and make up for it later. However now I realize that I am depriving myself of valuable compounding time that can't so easily be made up for later.
by vel
Sat Jul 06, 2019 8:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?
Replies: 62
Views: 5964

Re: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?

Thanks Grt2bOutdoors, that would have taken me a while to figure out.
by vel
Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?
Replies: 62
Views: 5964

Re: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?

Fair enough, I'll put my focus there.
by vel
Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?
Replies: 62
Views: 5964

Re: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?

Charon/KlangFool, I'll run through the numbers in more detail. -thanks!
by vel
Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?
Replies: 62
Views: 5964

Re: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?

A lot of sound advice here - thanks.

Now, if I were to decide that I didn't want to work more, can't reduce livings expenses and therefore can't save more... given that I have ~143K invested, advice on reallocating or best to stay put?
by vel
Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?
Replies: 62
Views: 5964

Re: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?

Getting up to 15% savings - that is definitely something I will try harder to work out. Regarding my part-time work lifestyle, I saw an opportunity and I decided to grab it and hold on. In some sense it's like borrowing 1/4 of my future retirement. A lot could be said about having that time now. Wit...
by vel
Sat Jul 06, 2019 5:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?
Replies: 62
Views: 5964

25 years to retirement, advice on speeding up growth?

Hi, I just started reading finance books a month ago and luckily found my way to the Bogle realm and this great community/resource! I'm about to turn 40 and at a good place in my career. That said, since I feel that I am getting a late start, I would like to ramp up the risk/return to try to speed u...
by vel
Fri Jul 05, 2019 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the math for comparing correlated graphs
Replies: 10
Views: 704

Re: What is the math for comparing correlated graphs

I now see that there are some very basic stats concepts that I should familiarize myself with first...
by vel
Fri Jul 05, 2019 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the math for comparing correlated graphs
Replies: 10
Views: 704

Re: What is the math for comparing correlated graphs

Thanks ohai, Could you explain what you wrote in the first paragraph of your response in a little more detail? I am trying to understand the general approach, and that was just supposed to be an example to help make my question clear. A better example would be if I created a model for my own 3x inst...
by vel
Fri Jul 05, 2019 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the math for comparing correlated graphs
Replies: 10
Views: 704

Re: What is the math for comparing correlated graphs

I realized that it is probably similar to calculating the percent gain between an initial price 'a' and a subsequent price 'b': percent gain = (b-a) * 1/a * 100 That is, determine the price difference, scale it back to a, then mult by 100 to express as a %. So, I am thinking that for a given time t,...
by vel
Fri Jul 05, 2019 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the math for comparing correlated graphs
Replies: 10
Views: 704

What is the math for comparing correlated graphs

For example, I have last year's daily price history for: 1) S&P500 2) UPRO (seeks 3x S&P500) I want to overlay (2) on (1) to measure its tracking accuracy, however the prices are at different scales. (1) is at price scale ~2,500, (2) at ~50. Since we know they are correlated, I need to scale...