Search found 1451 matches

by Elysium
Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years
Replies: 81
Views: 6573

Re: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years

While it is way too early to report, Vanguard Value Factor ETF (VFVA) is the best performing asset so far this year, 12% up YTD. If this holds up for 6 months or more there will be a lot of money chasing value funds again. What it indicates is that pure exposure to any one factor is going to result...
by Elysium
Mon Jan 21, 2019 12:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Federal Workers
Replies: 33
Views: 1509

Re: Federal Workers

Almost everyone lives paycheck to paycheck, federal workers are not immune to this. They are all going to get their pay check back when this is all over, and many of them aren't actually working or working anywhere near capacity, but will get paid anyway. The same cannot be said of federal contracto...
by Elysium
Mon Jan 21, 2019 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years
Replies: 81
Views: 6573

Re: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years

As a follow up to my last post, the same lack of efficacy for harvesting the value premium shows up in Vanguard's small cap funds. Since inception, 5/21/1998, more than 20 years ago through 12/31/2018, their Small Cap Growth Fund has outperformed their Small Cap Value Fund by O.2% annually (8.01% g...
by Elysium
Mon Jan 21, 2019 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years
Replies: 81
Views: 6573

Re: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years

While it is way too early to report, Vanguard Value Factor ETF (VFVA) is the best performing asset so far this year, 12% up YTD. If this holds up for 6 months or more there will be a lot of money chasing value funds again. What it indicates is that pure exposure to any one factor is going to result ...
by Elysium
Sun Jan 20, 2019 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years
Replies: 81
Views: 6573

Re: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years

Hard line factor proponents will say value premium showed up at some point during this 30 years, say from 2000-07, and that is enough evidence to hold out for another 30 years with the "expectation" it will show up again. If you started investing at the age of 22 years in 1988 and has been over weig...
by Elysium
Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What active management stock funds would you own?
Replies: 85
Views: 5594

Re: What active management stock funds would you own?

OP, I own Primecap Core, Capital Opportunity, Dividend Growth, International Growth, Healthcare. I have owned others in the past, like Dodge & Cox Stock and Dodge & Cox International, but these are the only long term holdings as of now and they are all more than 10 years old holdings in my portfoli...
by Elysium
Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What active management stock funds would you own?
Replies: 85
Views: 5594

Re: What active management stock funds would you own?

OP, I own Primecap Core, Capital Opportunity, Dividend Growth, International Growth, Healthcare. I have owned others in the past, like Dodge & Cox Stock and Dodge & Cox International, but these are the only long term holdings as of now and they are all more than 10 years old holdings in my portfolio...
by Elysium
Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Curry Powder?
Replies: 38
Views: 2031

Re: Curry Powder?

I believe you can make a curry spice with just two main spices, red chilly powder and turmeric powder. Rest of them can be added as needed. Garam masala powder is one extra ingredient I think that can be the third addition. The proportion matters mostly, I think turmeric, cumin, and garam masala hav...
by Elysium
Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tributes to Jack Bogle
Replies: 118
Views: 10369

Re: Tributes to Jack Bogle

I stumbled across Vanguard and Jack Bogle when I started investing in the late 90's and I consider this the single most important thing that happend to me when it comes to investing my money. Everyone remembers Jack Bogle as the father of indexing and low cost investing, although it gets forgotten t...
by Elysium
Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 852
Views: 44763

Re: John Bogle has died at age 89

A very sad day indeed. Something I was hoping not to hear so soon. Jack Bogle has been the guiding light for many years for the investment community. A titan of the industry with no equal. Rest in peace.
by Elysium
Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Govt contractors what would you do
Replies: 7
Views: 1085

Govt contractors what would you do

Govt is shutdown with no answers on when it will open. Expecting a very long and/or unknown future, if you were a self employed contractor what would you do with business income. Let's say still working, but not guaranteed if shutdown goes beyond this month. Assume, normal practice is to run payroll...
by Elysium
Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio HELP - time to stop the bleeding from AUM fee
Replies: 34
Views: 2383

Re: Portfolio HELP - time to stop the bleeding from AUM fee

OP, What is your performance results for last 10 years? I did not see this part addressed anywhere in your post or in the replies. What are the returns? what was your asset allocation? what was the return for an appropriate benchmark like a 3-fund or Target Retirement Fund? Has the FA provided value...
by Elysium
Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 128
Views: 7425

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

For all this esoteric talk based on valuations and numbers, it is worth noting that the so called Emerging Markets funds are essentially an investment in just about 4 large countries, 3 if you consider China/Taiwan as one economic block. Take a look at the country allocation for Vanguard EM Index fu...
by Elysium
Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Negative 13.6% return in 401K for 2018
Replies: 55
Views: 5680

Re: Negative 13.6% return in 401K for 2018

OP - maybe list the funds available to you, it might yield positive suggestions on where to put your $$. Thank you, please see funds available to me in my 401K plan: BOND FUNDS: 1. Metropolitan West Total Return Bd Admin (MWTNX) 2. Vanguard GNMA Fund Admiral Shares (VFIJX) 3. PIMCO Commodity Real R...
by Elysium
Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Negative 13.6% return in 401K for 2018
Replies: 55
Views: 5680

Re: Negative 13.6% return in 401K for 2018

OP - maybe list the funds available to you, it might yield positive suggestions on where to put your $$. Thank you, please see funds available to me in my 401K plan: BOND FUNDS: 1. Metropolitan West Total Return Bd Admin (MWTNX) 2. Vanguard GNMA Fund Admiral Shares (VFIJX) 3. PIMCO Commodity Real R...
by Elysium
Sun Jan 06, 2019 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CPA suggesting I don't contribute max to 401k this year?
Replies: 38
Views: 5271

Re: CPA suggesting I don't contribute max to 401k this year?

I am in a similar situation this year, and will likely contribute the max towards employEE side of the 401(k), just like I did on 2018. I have not decided on the profit sharing contribution, since I can keep accumulating that in my business account and contribute lump sum before filing taxes. Obviou...
by Elysium
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: BAM Advisor: Advice on alt funds and allocations
Replies: 54
Views: 2635

Re: BAM Advisor: Advice on alt funds and allocations

To all those who are asking to fire the advisor, a word of caution. OP indicated he is not a DIY investor, and also has some sort of disability which may make the situation even more complicated if his spouse is also not into investing. A person who is not well versed in investing will not save the ...
by Elysium
Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: BAM Advisor: Advice on alt funds and allocations
Replies: 54
Views: 2635

Re: BAM Advisor: Advice on alt funds and allocations

Do you also think the same way about your doctor. In other words, do we go to our doctor and take everything they tell us without any questioning or taking a second opinion especially on critical decisions. On other hand, what we have is more akin a scenario in which someone decides to reject the c...
by Elysium
Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: BAM Advisor: Advice on alt funds and allocations
Replies: 54
Views: 2635

Re: BAM Advisor: Advice on alt funds and allocations

There is a tangle of issues here: 1. If you are going to hire an advisor to handle your wealth, then what is the point of questioning what they recommend? Or, the back side of the coin, if you are going to learn enough to evaluate what they are doing, you can do it yourself and save what you are pa...
by Elysium
Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century
Replies: 92
Views: 4382

Re: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century

Thanks for posting this. It would be nice to see real returns for Internatinal Markets and Bonds alongside this information to give a full picture. Nominal returns from portfolio visualizer for the three total market funds show that US Equities still provided better returns compared to other two opt...
by Elysium
Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: BAM Advisor: Advice on alt funds and allocations
Replies: 54
Views: 2635

Re: BAM Advisor: Advice on alt funds and allocations

There is a tangle of issues here: 1. If you are going to hire an advisor to handle your wealth, then what is the point of questioning what they recommend? Or, the back side of the coin, if you are going to learn enough to evaluate what they are doing, you can do it yourself and save what you are pa...
by Elysium
Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2018)
Replies: 11
Views: 1002

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2018)

Begs the question, why doesn't the newsletter portfolio get any discussion on this board? It appears that at the very least it merits same attention as all the discussions around slide & dice, factor investing, alternatives, etc etc. It does look like there is an index option that has done as well ...
by Elysium
Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: BAM Advisor: Advice on alt funds and allocations
Replies: 54
Views: 2635

Re: BAM Advisor: Advice on alt funds and allocations

Hi PJE, I guess what your advisor is doing with the 15% allocation to alternatives is buying you what they consider as portfolio insurance, with your money. Think of that for a minute. Do you need this type of portfolio insurance with 15% of your own retirement money. They are insuring against what ...
by Elysium
Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2018)
Replies: 11
Views: 1002

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2018)

Begs the question, why doesn't the newsletter portfolio get any discussion on this board? It appears that at the very least it merits same attention as all the discussions around slide & dice, factor investing, alternatives, etc etc. It does look like there is an index option that has done as well a...
by Elysium
Tue Jan 01, 2019 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The big Value Trap year of 2018
Replies: 35
Views: 3624

Re: The big Value Trap year of 2018

I guess I don't understand how any of "what worked this year and what didn't" is actionable to a long-term investor. It matters a lot to long term investors to understand asset classes go in and out of favor with or without any reason anytime of the year or decade, and all the conversations on the ...
by Elysium
Tue Jan 01, 2019 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The big Value Trap year of 2018
Replies: 35
Views: 3624

Re: The big Value Trap year of 2018

2015 wrote:
Tue Jan 01, 2019 8:53 pm
Call_Me_Op wrote:
Tue Jan 01, 2019 5:25 pm
Of course, what happens over 1 year is really of little importance to the long-term investor.
This.
Short-term investors always seem to want to create narratives based on the murkiest of patterns.
Not me. I am not implying any such thing. See my last post.
by Elysium
Tue Jan 01, 2019 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The big Value Trap year of 2018
Replies: 35
Views: 3624

Re: The big Value Trap year of 2018

Here are some numbers to compare. In all categories except EM, value lost big time compared to blend. This is not to prove anything, or even imply investing in value is inferior. On the contrary, I make no such claims, and I am invested in 3 of the value funds listed there. Just an observation how b...
by Elysium
Tue Jan 01, 2019 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Total US Bond Index fund have a positive return for 2018?
Replies: 13
Views: 2060

Re: Will Total US Bond Index fund have a positive return for 2018?

Total Bond Index is positive for the year, it depends on which share class. I hold Total Bond Index Institutional Trust Index, and it squeezed out a 0.06% positive return. The difference is expense ratios.
by Elysium
Tue Jan 01, 2019 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The big Value Trap year of 2018
Replies: 35
Views: 3624

The big Value Trap year of 2018

Now that 2018 is in the books, it is interesting to look back at what worked and what did not. The one thing that stands out is value is the big loser across all markets and segments this year, and as a consequence portfolios tilted heavily to value sufferred the most. Other big losers include Inter...
by Elysium
Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says It’s Time to Play It Safe]
Replies: 153
Views: 13609

Re: [Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says It’s Time to Play It Safe]

Bogle does not believe investors for the long term should try to pull completely out and time the market, which he says is "a really dumb strategy." Instead, he said it's time "to really be thinking how much risk you want to have" and make some defensive moves. "If I had a big liability in a year, ...
by Elysium
Sun Dec 30, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term disability - any real world examples of collecting benefits?
Replies: 21
Views: 1350

Re: Long term disability - any real world examples of collecting benefits?

I am also interested in purchasing this insurance. Anyone has recommendations on what are some of the insurance providers and the type of insurance features to look for when selecting long term disability coverage. I recently reached out to my life insurance agent who sold me term life few years bac...
by Elysium
Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fall of 2018: third fastest decline on record
Replies: 20
Views: 1578

Re: Fall of 2018: third fastest decline on record

Trade is the 800 pound gorilla in the room. There are other problems, even if trade gets resolved. But, if there is one thing that could boost the economy and make growth come back again will be easing on all trade barriers, across the globe, by all participants.
by Elysium
Tue Dec 25, 2018 12:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utilities have fallen 10% while bonds are up. This makes no sense to me.
Replies: 11
Views: 2425

Re: Utilities have fallen 10% while bonds are up. This makes no sense to me.

That is what Benjamin Graham meant when he said "in the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine".

There is no meaning to this short term sell off, in the long run true value will reflect in prices.
by Elysium
Mon Dec 24, 2018 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)
Replies: 248
Views: 21041

Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Anything’s possible. Usually stocks need a reason to collapse 50%; something beyond overvaluation alone. In 2000 we had a tech bubble - ill-considered capital deployment in money losing companies - which led to a credit contraction and stock collapse. The fed responded with a ton of liquidity which...
by Elysium
Sun Dec 23, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which asset class is down the most for you?
Replies: 26
Views: 2293

Re: Which asset class is down the most for you?

Intl Small Value, Intl Small, Small Value, Small, Mid Caps, EM, Intl Large, EM Value, in that order are the bggest losers this year. US Large, both Growth and Value are relatively better, and US Quality, Minimum Volatility, and Dividend Growth are best performers. I do not invest in all of the above...
by Elysium
Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Replies: 155
Views: 14730

Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade

I haven't read the Vanguard paper, but I strongly suspect that their prediction is based on valuations. It's true that international equities have lower valuations than U.S. equities, which leads to higher expected returns. But the key to remember with valuations is that (1) they are not reliably m...
by Elysium
Sat Dec 22, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds this year: a case for staying the course
Replies: 13
Views: 1512

Re: Bonds this year: a case for staying the course

It is also providing the much needed stability to the volatility caused by the stock market. I like the volatility; it's like watching the big wheel. I sold all my bonds because the tax on regular income is brutal. You mean you held bonds in taxable accounts? one of the main principles here is that...
by Elysium
Sat Dec 22, 2018 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [Vanguard Health Care Fund vs. Health Care ETF]
Replies: 18
Views: 2002

Re: Vanguard Active Health Care Fund vs. Health Care ETF

Thank you for your comments, but (with due respect) I disagree with your argument vehemently. It is not proper to compare Healthcare (active) against the S&P 500. In fact, that would be even more misleading than my error above which was brought to light by EyeDee. VGHAX owns foreign and solely one ...
by Elysium
Sat Dec 22, 2018 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [Vanguard Health Care Fund vs. Health Care ETF]
Replies: 18
Views: 2002

Re: [Vanguard Health Care Fund vs. Health Care ETF]

I would argue that if it weren't for active management, there is no need to buy a separate Healthcare fund. It is well represented in S&P 500 Index / TSM Index. The active Healthcare fund is a different beast from the Healthcare sector index fund. You buy the fund for active management, whether it i...
by Elysium
Sat Dec 22, 2018 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds this year: a case for staying the course
Replies: 13
Views: 1512

Bonds this year: a case for staying the course

In 2018, the federal reserve raised overnight fed funds rates 4 times. A lot of ink has been used in media and on blogs about the calamity this will cause to bond market. As of 12/21 these are the returns of 4 major bond index mutual funds (rounded): Total Bond Index: -0.50% Total Intl Bond Index: 0...
by Elysium
Sat Dec 22, 2018 9:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Involuntary retirement - stories and strategies?
Replies: 32
Views: 3602

Re: Involuntary retirement - stories and strategies?

Get self employed. Work for a non-profit. Do charity and volunteer work. Everyone has something to offer to others, and there will be some money to be made. You never know how successful it could become until you try it.
by Elysium
Fri Dec 21, 2018 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 is only one bad day away from being in a bear market
Replies: 7
Views: 1539

Re: S&P 500 is only one bad day away from being in a bear market

Good, let's get there and be done with the all the longest bull market in history talks.
by Elysium
Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Diversify Globally
Replies: 47
Views: 4746

Re: Larry Swedroe: Diversify Globally

The EM label is all great. But the fact is DFA EM Value fund and other EM funds are dominated by China. Fully 1/3rd of DFEVX is China + Taiwan. Rest 40% in South Korea, India, and Brazil. Remaining countries are too small allocations and unlikely to make major impacts to returns. EM is trading low ...
by Elysium
Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: planning to buy REIT, bad idea ?
Replies: 35
Views: 2747

Re: planning to buy REIT, bad idea ?

I have maintained a simple rule when it comes to REITs, don't look to buy it back again until yield hits 5% again. Last time I had owned REIT Index fund, it had yields above 5%. They are getting close, although not quite there yet. Where do you go to watch the yield? It is listed on the fund inform...
by Elysium
Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)
Replies: 248
Views: 21041

Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

I have been buying since the downturn began last week of September. Made regular contributions this week from paycheck and also made college savings purchases this week. Although, now it appears the buying started too early. That is always the case in a down market, you could end up buying too early...
by Elysium
Thu Dec 20, 2018 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: planning to buy REIT, bad idea ?
Replies: 35
Views: 2747

Re: planning to buy REIT, bad idea ?

I have maintained a simple rule when it comes to REITs, don't look to buy it back again until yield hits 5% again. Last time I had owned REIT Index fund, it had yields above 5%. They are getting close, although not quite there yet.
by Elysium
Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bull market is over, run for cover says Alan Greenspan
Replies: 41
Views: 6111

Re: Bull market is over, run for cover says Alan Greenspan

read somewhere that Greenspan still uses Netscape Navigator. :confused As far as I know that's not possible? I used NN (and still sometimes call Firefox "Netscape"). But I don't think it will run on any hardware nor access websites correctly. (maybe there's an emulator mode you could use - as with ...
by Elysium
Tue Dec 18, 2018 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on DFA's overall theory....
Replies: 18
Views: 1460

Re: Something important is missing

Am I looking at this the right way? Or is there something I'm missing? Greenman72: You are missing something very important: DFA cannot normally be purchased without the added cost of an advisor. Morningstar:"If there's anything in the whole world of mutual funds that you can take to the bank, it's...
by Elysium
Tue Dec 18, 2018 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on DFA's overall theory....
Replies: 18
Views: 1460

Re: Question on DFA's overall theory....

DFA offers building blocks. I would present that they are no longer a value and small only shop. Sure, that is where they started off and perhaps where their heart is, but just like Vanguard who started with cap weighted 500 Index and later into all sorts of passive investing including factors, DFA ...
by Elysium
Tue Dec 18, 2018 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bull market is over, run for cover says Alan Greenspan
Replies: 41
Views: 6111

Bull market is over, run for cover says Alan Greenspan

The former fed chairman Alan Greenspan says about the current market "It would be very surprising to see it sort of stabilize here, and then take off" He added that markets could still go up further — but warned investors that the correction would be painful: "At the end of that run, run for cover."...