Search found 2758 matches

by Elysium
Sat May 30, 2020 5:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Out of market now and need advice on re-entering
Replies: 28
Views: 2291

Re: Out of market now and need advice on re-entering

I will take a guess at what happened. Based on the previous information that OP was 80/20 before the panic selling and now they wish to be 90/10, it appears losses were incurred on the sale to cash, and the higher equity allocation is an effort to recoup that loss. The idea on mega tech stocks, and ...
by Elysium
Sat May 30, 2020 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent of value stocks are actually risky?
Replies: 6
Views: 536

Re: What percent of value stocks are actually risky?

Any site where you can sort the holdings on debt rating? Unfortunately no free sites where you can download this type of data. You would need access to subscription based databases to pull up data in a spreadsheet then sort them, build a pivot table etc. A lot of work. It is possible someone has ac...
by Elysium
Sat May 30, 2020 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: iShares 0-3 Month Treasury ETF
Replies: 8
Views: 621

Re: iShares 0-3 Month Treasury ETF

Useful for holding amounts over the FDIC limits of course if you wanted the super safety and liquidity equal to 3-month T-Bills. Obviously for funds kept for a very short term.
by Elysium
Sat May 30, 2020 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?
Replies: 67
Views: 3996

Re: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?

Are you in 100% TIPS for the LMP? Yes. I posted that earlier. I guess all individual TIPS ladder and I-Bonds? and the rest in risk assets? I am working towards something like this for my own retirement, still 10-15 years away. The idea is to keep higher allocation to stocks until I get to the goal,...
by Elysium
Sat May 30, 2020 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Come on in, the water is fine: My 10-yr BH experience
Replies: 6
Views: 973

Re: Come on in, the water is fine: My 10-yr BH experience

I was a Boglehead right from the time I started investing in the late 90's. Not exactly as in always invested only in index funds, but I found the right principles and I couldn't argue with them very much. I think I was lucky. I read a few books as I was beginning to put together an investment portf...
by Elysium
Sat May 30, 2020 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent of value stocks are actually risky?
Replies: 6
Views: 536

Re: What percent of value stocks are actually risky?

So, what are the actual numbers? What percent of companies that are considered to be value stocks are actually distressed, close to bankruptcy, have to pay higher interest for loans, etc, that would make them higher risk? Or, what percent of value market share is made up of such distressed risky co...
by Elysium
Sat May 30, 2020 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?
Replies: 67
Views: 3996

Re: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?

Exactly. VG (and others) seem to just be making arbitrary moves to (again) look like they're doing something "smart." My LMP is 100% TIPS in a ten year rolling ladder. That's 100% protection from inflation and default. That's what a "safe" zone of the portfolio should look like. What is an LMP? Lia...
by Elysium
Sat May 30, 2020 8:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Strategy Check
Replies: 16
Views: 1004

Re: Strategy Check

Why? What's wrong with maximum tax deferral when you can? I don’t know OP’s situation, but a tax bomb could be lurking in their portfolios. That's why I asked, we don't know enough to answer. There may not be anything wrong with maximum tax deferral for many people. Sometimes people hear an idea so...
by Elysium
Fri May 29, 2020 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Equity Diversification vs TIPS
Replies: 4
Views: 364

Re: International Equity Diversification vs TIPS

While some American investors hold non-US equities hoping for higher returns, some consider the extra protection from inflation to be the important reason. Ex-US Equities have nigher returns than US Equities? Since when is the expected returns of a basket of EAFE Large Cap equities higher than S&P ...
by Elysium
Fri May 29, 2020 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?
Replies: 67
Views: 3996

Re: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?

Given that TIPS is available at approximately zero premium over nominal bonds, why not use TIPS ladders instead of US nominal bonds? And why restrict to short term TIPS for "stronger inflation hedge and less duration risk" when you can get full inflation hedge and no duration risk and a higher yiel...
by Elysium
Fri May 29, 2020 10:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I panicking or being prudent?
Replies: 57
Views: 4699

Re: Am I panicking or being prudent?

I'm less than a year from retirement. I don't have a pension to speak of. My stock/Bond portfolio is around $2.2M which closely matches my savings goals for retirement . My portfolio is 60/40 stocks/bonds. I was intending to keep it invested that way in retirement. My portfolio is currently down on...
by Elysium
Fri May 29, 2020 4:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I panicking or being prudent?
Replies: 57
Views: 4699

Re: Am I panicking or being prudent?

I'm less than a year from retirement. I don't have a pension to speak of. My stock/Bond portfolio is around $2.2M which closely matches my savings goals for retirement . My portfolio is 60/40 stocks/bonds. I was intending to keep it invested that way in retirement. My portfolio is currently down on...
by Elysium
Fri May 29, 2020 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?
Replies: 67
Views: 3996

Re: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?

It is about 25% of bonds in TIPS for Vanguard Target Income. Here is how fixed income allocation compares between Vanguard and DFA in their TR Income strategy. While I've poked around all dates of the Vanguard TDFs (and the "other big three's") plenty over the last decade+, I've never paid any atte...
by Elysium
Fri May 29, 2020 9:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Strategy Check
Replies: 16
Views: 1004

Re: Strategy Check

Why? What's wrong with maximum tax deferral when you can?
by Elysium
Fri May 29, 2020 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?
Replies: 67
Views: 3996

Re: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?

Great discussion; I'm going to bookmark this post...many thanks! Therefore one's choices are Follow history and go with 20% of bonds in TIPS or Fail proof method...100% TIPS ( or go short nominals) It is about 25% of bonds in TIPS for Vanguard Target Income. Here is how fixed income allocation comp...
by Elysium
Thu May 28, 2020 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?
Replies: 67
Views: 3996

Re: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?

...you have $170K of a $1 mil portfolio insured against unexpected inflation when you are in retirement. That should get you through 4-5 years, at a 3.5% WR. We have had just 4 years between 1977-1981 in last 50 years where this would have been really needed. Do you think this is supposed to be par...
by Elysium
Thu May 28, 2020 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index
Replies: 155
Views: 10776

Re: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index

Admittedly always being right is a tall order. But the more rights (and less wrongs) the better. Larry spends a lot of time on ideas that, even if ultimately deemed correct after 100 years of data, would have an infinitesimally small impact on a portfolio. Hawking SCV and avoiding Total Bond are tw...
by Elysium
Thu May 28, 2020 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index
Replies: 155
Views: 10776

Re: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index

Admittedly always being right is a tall order. But the more rights (and less wrongs) the better. Larry spends a lot of time on ideas that, even if ultimately deemed correct after 100 years of data, would have an infinitesimally small impact on a portfolio. Hawking SCV and avoiding Total Bond are tw...
by Elysium
Thu May 28, 2020 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index
Replies: 155
Views: 10776

Re: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index

There's no right answer, of course. From a strictly mean variance perspective, short corporates nose out short treasuries in a portfolio, at least combining them with the S&P500. But treasuries offer the psychological advantage when things really go down the tubes of not having to take a haircut to...
by Elysium
Thu May 28, 2020 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?
Replies: 67
Views: 3996

Re: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?

You give up on potential extra returns by insuring your entire fixed income with inflation protection with TIPS and Short Term Bonds. TIPS also are more sensitive to interest rates, and expected to have lower returns than nominal bonds of similar duration except in inflationary periods. Are you com...
by Elysium
Thu May 28, 2020 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?
Replies: 67
Views: 3996

Re: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?

How much inflation protection does one have with 6.38% of ones portfolio in TIPS? 6.38% doesn’t really move the needle much in any direction. Even 9.91% won’t save a portfolio from large spikes in inflation. I just don’t see it. Am I missing something? Unless of course equities has inflation protec...
by Elysium
Thu May 28, 2020 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?
Replies: 67
Views: 3996

Re: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?

How much inflation protection does one have with 6.38% of ones portfolio in TIPS? 6.38% doesn’t really move the needle much in any direction. Even 9.91% won’t save a portfolio from large spikes in inflation. I just don’t see it. Am I missing something? Unless of course equities has inflation protec...
by Elysium
Wed May 27, 2020 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 40m Unemployment Claims - I Don’t Understand Why Markets Seem To Not Care
Replies: 86
Views: 9537

Re: 40m Unemployment Claims - I Don’t Understand Why Markets Seem To Not Care

Stranger to me than the market not being relatively lower, is how many people seem upset that it's not. They are all people who sold on March 24 and are in cash, waiting to buy back in :mrgreen: I suspect there is truth in it, far many people than those who admitted may have sold at the March lows,...
by Elysium
Wed May 27, 2020 7:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Using VGT in portfolio
Replies: 19
Views: 985

Re: Using VGT in portfolio

You should diversify away from Tech, not load up more of it. Your human capital is tied to Tech sector, you are employed with mega tech corp, you own company stock tied to tech, the last thing you need is more tech with capital you are saving away from your earnings in tech. You get the drift? What ...
by Elysium
Wed May 27, 2020 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?
Replies: 67
Views: 3996

Re: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?

Vanguard's view points to their use of TIPS in retirement portfolios for the portion of funds they consider as short-term spending needs, say next 5 to 7 years. This is how I have interpreted and understood from their selection of Short Term TIPS and the glidepath allocation of it. This is consisten...
by Elysium
Wed May 27, 2020 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index
Replies: 155
Views: 10776

Re: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index

I would also go on and add that, looking at the sweet spot on the yield curve to find the optimal duration Treasury bond has proven to be an unsuccessful method over the past 25 years. I do not have historical data or charts beyond that, it could be possible that there were conditions where this may...
by Elysium
Wed May 27, 2020 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index
Replies: 155
Views: 10776

Re: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index

Saying that anything other than TBM or a LMP approach is bond 'betting' is nonsensical. No. It is the one that makes most sense. There has to be a sound reasoning behind picking a fixed income strategy. TBM is the best if you do not wish to learn more about LMP. I agree that matching duration to yo...
by Elysium
Wed May 27, 2020 11:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Timing 401k Rollover from ADP to Vanguard
Replies: 7
Views: 264

Re: Timing 401k Rollover from ADP to Vanguard

I wouldn't worry about timing. You aren't likely to miss very much, and even if you miss 1% to 2%, in the long run that wouldn't matter. Talk to ADP first, chance are it takes 3-5 business days. 1% to 2% of a large chunk of cash, of course that matters (especially when compounded over the years)! I...
by Elysium
Wed May 27, 2020 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index
Replies: 155
Views: 10776

Re: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index

Saying that anything other than TBM or a LMP approach is bond 'betting' is nonsensical. No. It is the one that makes most sense. There has to be a sound reasoning behind picking a fixed income strategy. TBM is the best if you do not wish to learn more about LMP. I agree that matching duration to yo...
by Elysium
Wed May 27, 2020 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index
Replies: 155
Views: 10776

Re: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index

I don't see why you would think that TBM is more efficient than the Treasury market, which is comprised solely of the most liquid fixed income instruments in the world. Treasury market is efficient and highly liquid, and if there is an index fund of Aggregate Treasury Market then I think it would b...
by Elysium
Wed May 27, 2020 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index
Replies: 155
Views: 10776

Re: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index

When you invest in the Total Bond Index you are accepting the Aggregate Bond market returns. This is what the bond market is offering you, and it's the most efficient non market timing the bond market way for you to invest. I don't see why you would think that TBM is more efficient than the Treasur...
by Elysium
Wed May 27, 2020 9:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Timing 401k Rollover from ADP to Vanguard
Replies: 7
Views: 264

Re: Timing 401k Rollover from ADP to Vanguard

I wouldn't worry about timing. You aren't likely to miss very much, and even if you miss 1% to 2%, in the long run that wouldn't matter. Talk to ADP first, chance are it takes 3-5 business days.
by Elysium
Wed May 27, 2020 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index
Replies: 155
Views: 10776

Re: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index

When you invest in the Total Bond Index you are accepting the Aggregate Bond market returns. This is what the bond market is offering you, and it's the most efficient non market timing the bond market way for you to invest. I don't see why you would think that TBM is more efficient than the Treasur...
by Elysium
Wed May 27, 2020 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 237
Views: 15475

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

Market-timing is not impossible. But it sure isn't easy. Even when it seems obvious, it isn't easy. I would also say there is a huge difference between those who time the market based on a system vs these amateur market timers we find on the forum whenever they get their risk tolerance wrong. The f...
by Elysium
Tue May 26, 2020 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Covid-19 Fears and Stock Market Behavior
Replies: 13
Views: 1129

Re: Covid-19 Fears and Stock Market Behavior

Yes, for now risk has been priced in, and the Fed actions indeed were the critical factor in all this. Unless there is a surprise twist in this story, the recovery should hold up. Cautious optimism is what the market is displaying.
by Elysium
Tue May 26, 2020 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?
Replies: 93
Views: 4594

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

It appears that you could have had much higher returns with any of those others instead of VFIDX, but you chose the one with lowest returns. This is not a good market timing success story, you got to bet big and win big when you time the market, otherwise it isn't worth it since you simply increase...
by Elysium
Tue May 26, 2020 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 237
Views: 15475

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

Stop anchoring you’re feelings around gains that you are not getting back anytime soon. That 3000 S&P is NOT Coming back anytime soon. ...... We can discuss when to get back in later. Now is the time to get out if you haven’t already. Ouch! That didn't age very well. S&P crossed 3000 this morning, ...
by Elysium
Tue May 26, 2020 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index
Replies: 155
Views: 10776

Re: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index

So I finally took the time to read Larry Swedroe’s The Only Guide to a Winning Bond Strategy You'll Ever Need. Great book for those of us who don’t understand or believe in bonds. Not sure I’m sold but I understand a lot more now. One thing perplexes me though so I need to ask. Bogleheads recommend...
by Elysium
Tue May 26, 2020 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads: What is your largest single stock holding? (if any)
Replies: 79
Views: 3901

Re: Bogleheads: What is your largest single stock holding? (if any)

Haven't owned a single company stock for 20 years, that changed this year when I put some fun money into Delta around the same time Buffett sold his. It is about 0.1% of my net worth, and won't make a difference to my lifestyle if all of it went to zero. Why did I feel like buying a single company s...
by Elysium
Tue May 26, 2020 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Avoiding keeping-up-with-the-joneses w.r.t. private schools
Replies: 234
Views: 11181

Re: Avoiding keeping-up-with-the-joneses w.r.t. private schools

We live in the Bay Area where sending kids to private schools seems like a status symbol. Or perhaps it's just the emphasis on education out here. Me and SO make 450K before taxes and we have a kid who will soon hit the age for preschool/school. The public school in our district is not very good fo...
by Elysium
Mon May 25, 2020 7:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review
Replies: 18
Views: 1288

Re: Portfolio Review

Regarding putting too much into Tax Deferred accounts mentioned by some, this should not be great concern IMO. The current tax brackets are low by historical standards for sure, however, with the current balance and projected contributions plus growth, the likelihood of retirement income going subst...
by Elysium
Mon May 25, 2020 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you hold commodities?
Replies: 26
Views: 1618

Re: Do you hold commodities?

Some members here were fooled by some very persuasive and persistent arguments made in favor of one of the funds mentioned, PCRIX (Pimco Commodities Real Return). The promise was that this fund will have "double" source of returns, first from the Commodity futures roll returns which were to be in "b...
by Elysium
Mon May 25, 2020 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?
Replies: 93
Views: 4594

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Between March 25 and March 27 I sold all of my Treasuries (VFIUX) and bought investment grade corporates (VFIDX) with the proceeds. Over the ensuing 8 weeks VFIUX returned 54 basis points, while VFIDX returned 613 basis points. I learned that trick in 2008 - and it worked again in 2020. Anybody els...
by Elysium
Mon May 25, 2020 2:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review
Replies: 18
Views: 1288

Re: Portfolio Review

OP, Just a quick response to touch upon something that most people do not consider in AA questions like yours. Even though the recommendation to keep everything as one portfolio and allocate according to where you can place each assets most efficiently is generally in the right direction, I do not ...
by Elysium
Mon May 25, 2020 8:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review
Replies: 18
Views: 1288

Re: Portfolio Review

OP, Just a quick response to touch upon something that most people do not consider in AA questions like yours. Even though the recommendation to keep everything as one portfolio and allocate according to where you can place each assets most efficiently is generally in the right direction, I do not r...
by Elysium
Mon May 25, 2020 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bonds may be the only thing propping up the stock market
Replies: 13
Views: 1798

Re: Why bonds may be the only thing propping up the stock market

Everyone is an expert these days. I've never seen so many laypeople trying to theorize so much on the economy and stock market in past recessions. It does sound this time is different with so many arm chair epidemiologists doubling down as economists making prognostications. The best course as usual...
by Elysium
Sun May 24, 2020 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different approach to asset allocation
Replies: 1491
Views: 707752

Re: A different approach to asset allocation

OP is obviously a high IQ individual who has tremendous skill sets that pays well, and his net worth of $2 million is an underachievement compared to his earnings. If he had done a simple buy & hold portfolio with very minimal tinkering, he would have had at least $3 million to $3.5 million by now. ...
by Elysium
Sat May 23, 2020 4:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?
Replies: 365
Views: 28003

Re: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?

If you enjoy working then I would search for home contract work while on unemployment. If I needed to study 10-20 hr./week for a 20 hr. job then I don't think I would bother. But if your wife looses her job then you would need to become more serious for medical coverage. The issue is going to be, h...
by Elysium
Sat May 23, 2020 4:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?
Replies: 365
Views: 28003

Re: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?

If you enjoy working then I would search for home contract work while on unemployment. If I needed to study 10-20 hr./week for a 20 hr. job then I don't think I would bother. But if your wife looses her job then you would need to become more serious for medical coverage. The issue is going to be, h...
by Elysium
Sat May 23, 2020 4:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?
Replies: 365
Views: 28003

Re: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?

1) Is it really worthwhile for me to continue working? I worked in the IT area. If I want to stay in this area, I have to study 10 to 20 hours per week just to keep up with the latest technology. 2) If I do contract work, how much should I get paid before it is worthwhile for me to work? KlangFool ...