Search found 587 matches

by guyinlaw
Sun May 24, 2020 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: El-Erian comments on the crisis
Replies: 60
Views: 5864

Re: El-Erian comments on the crisis

We went to our lake condo this weekend at Lake of the Ozarks to do spring-cleaning (long delayed because of covid-19). The lake was PACKED. It's the best Memorial Day weekend in years. All hotels were booked, boat rentals through the roof... Boat SALES were up like 50% from last year. That's the st...
by guyinlaw
Sun May 24, 2020 12:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: El-Erian comments on the crisis
Replies: 60
Views: 5864

Re: El-Erian comments on the crisis

Interesting interview and comments from someone who has IMO a good understanding of markets and the economy. Like Zell, he doesn't think a V shaped recovery is a sure thing. Lots of risk still out there and our options to deal with it are robust but less than perfect. Sobering assessment. https://w...
by guyinlaw
Sat May 23, 2020 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: El-Erian comments on the crisis
Replies: 60
Views: 5864

Re: El-Erian comments on the crisis

Regarding his advice to upgrade in quality, how does everyone feel about Invesco's S&P 500 Quality ETF (SPHQ) or Vanguard's own home-brewed U.S. Quality Factor ETF (VFQY)? BTW, back in early April he was cautioning against buying the market. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/01/mohamed-el-erian-offers-p...
by guyinlaw
Sat May 23, 2020 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: El-Erian comments on the crisis
Replies: 60
Views: 5864

Re: El-Erian comments on the crisis

Interesting interview and comments from someone who has IMO a good understanding of markets and the economy. Like Zell, he doesn't think a V shaped recovery is a sure thing. Lots of risk still out there and our options to deal with it are robust but less than perfect. Sobering assessment. https://w...
by guyinlaw
Thu May 21, 2020 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All equity portfolio in retirement
Replies: 2
Views: 403

Re: All equity portfolio in retirement

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=278758 https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=264903 https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=305864 https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=280981 https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=232711 https://www.bo...
by guyinlaw
Thu May 21, 2020 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The economy is in free fall. So why isn't the stock market?"
Replies: 153
Views: 15223

Re: "The economy is in free fall. So why isn't the stock market?"

The economic recovery is being downward revised.. https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/FW.gZ9Pu_5dhOV64BzlKEQ--~A/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjtzbT0xO3c9ODAw/https://media-mbst-pub-ue1.s3.amazonaws.com/creatr-uploaded-images/2020-05/60c630c0-9ade-11ea-b3d7-97aa79bd8961 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/three-pha...
by guyinlaw
Wed May 20, 2020 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The economy is in free fall. So why isn't the stock market?"
Replies: 153
Views: 15223

Re: "The economy is in free fall. So why isn't the stock market?"

It's hard for me to believe that most market participants are not aware of this already, but I still think that there is rampant hope that a vaccine and/or treatment is just around the corner and the Fed can solve most of the short-term problems. Nonetheless, if another flare up occurs, I have a ha...
by guyinlaw
Wed May 20, 2020 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The economy is in free fall. So why isn't the stock market?"
Replies: 153
Views: 15223

Re: "The economy is in free fall. So why isn't the stock market?"

It's why we've got calls for SP 3400 by later this year starting to percolate up. Even if we are likely seeing 10%+ unemployment rates for a long while. Some analysts have increased year end targets to 3200-3400. If economic recovery/vaccine takes longer than expected, SP could head back to 2500 as...
by guyinlaw
Fri May 15, 2020 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18799
Views: 2628006

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Don't forget the Fed. I didn't trust the rally and expect long W. The economy will be in the dump for few years. But investors don't have many options. Right now they have dumped small caps and crowding into Technology and Healthcare stocks. NASDAQ is doing so much better that rest of the market. I...
by guyinlaw
Thu May 14, 2020 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18799
Views: 2628006

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

back to the thread -- why did the stock whipsaw today?

PS. Small caps are still down.
by guyinlaw
Thu May 14, 2020 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which ETFs have LEAP options available?
Replies: 2
Views: 176

Re: Which ETFs have LEAP options available?

Any leaps for S&P 600 small cap index? Couldn't find it for IJR. IWM is pretty lousy small cap ETF..

I can use Futures (60-40 tax) instead of LEAPS for SPY, GLD and QQQ. I was looking for a small cap alternative to IWM.
by guyinlaw
Thu May 14, 2020 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which ETFs have LEAP options available?
Replies: 2
Views: 176

Which ETFs have LEAP options available?

Is there is a list of ETFs that have LEAP options available?

I see that SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA, ETFs of popular indexes, have LEAP options.

SPY - S&P 500 index
QQQ - NASDAQ 100
IWM - Russell 2000 Index
DIA - Dow Jones

Are there others ETFs?
by guyinlaw
Thu May 14, 2020 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18799
Views: 2628006

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Don't forget the Fed. I didn't trust the rally and expect long W. The economy will be in the dump for few years. But investors don't have many options. Right now they have dumped small caps and crowding into Technology and Healthcare stocks. NASDAQ is doing so much better that rest of the market. I...
by guyinlaw
Thu May 14, 2020 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18799
Views: 2628006

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Looking forward to the decline in equities. SPX 1800 is when I jump back in. No charting magic here -- just have an ability to realise that [MACRO, non-noise] bad = down and good = up Sorry, but the data tells a different story than the narrative, and for all the aphorisms and boomer-isms thrown ab...
by guyinlaw
Thu May 14, 2020 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18799
Views: 2628006

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Don't forget the Fed. I didn't trust the rally and expect long W. The economy will be in the dump for few years. But investors don't have many options. Right now they have dumped small caps and crowding into Technology and Healthcare stocks. NASDAQ is doing so much better that rest of the market. I ...
by guyinlaw
Thu May 14, 2020 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The economy is in free fall. So why isn't the stock market?"
Replies: 153
Views: 15223

Re: "The economy is in free fall. So why isn't the stock market?"

Here is one reason why the stock market is disconnected from the economy. The jobs most affected by the coronavirus are at the low end. Restaurants, hair salons, small shopkeepers, etc... these are low margin businesses that do not contribute much to aggregate economic activity. They employ low wag...
by guyinlaw
Wed May 13, 2020 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 186
Views: 15405

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

Don't expect PSLDX to be similar to any combination of UPRO/TMF/EDV etc.

PSLDX includes Corp Bonds, MBS, Treasuries, Various Futures, options and more..

https://www.pimco.com/en-us/investments ... fund/inst
by guyinlaw
Wed May 13, 2020 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18799
Views: 2628006

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Volatility is back!! Too bad, they needed a senate hearing to see the challenges ahead.. Futures are up. Too bad it seems folks over reacted yesterday's events.... Junkbond Jerome disagrees with you. Rhyming nicknames. This one is appropriate! Wonder the long term consequences of risking Feds balan...
by guyinlaw
Tue May 12, 2020 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 186
Views: 15405

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

I am wondering how critical the reblance is. I like having it one on package auto psldx, but the tax problems, and minimums or trade charges make it not that appealing when you can go upro/tm or edv https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&...
by guyinlaw
Tue May 12, 2020 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 186
Views: 15405

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

Charles Schwab has a minimum of $100k to buy PSLDX. First trade responded with this.. Opening an account with them and will transfer some of my Roth there.. "The initial minimum amount for mutual fund PSLDX is $500 and the trading cost will be base on the amount of your investment." 1. Anyone know w...
by guyinlaw
Tue May 12, 2020 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18799
Views: 2628006

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Volatility is back!! Too bad, they needed a senate hearing to see the challenges ahead..
by guyinlaw
Mon May 11, 2020 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18799
Views: 2628006

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Forester wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 9:50 am

2) I provided empirical evidence of Bitcoin recently pre-empting major market moves. Is it actionable? No. However I do believe there may be something to it, insofar as Bitcoin encapsulates "animal spirits".
Image
by guyinlaw
Sun May 10, 2020 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Technology Fund
Replies: 82
Views: 3404

Re: Vanguard Technology Fund

Avoid sector investing and VGT. (VGT doesn't have three of the best technology firms - Google, Facebook and Amazon). Sectors are very arbitray created IMO. If you want to invest in technology consider - QQQ and IETC. -- QQQ is highly liquid but has non-technology firms included -- I like IETC compos...
by guyinlaw
Sun May 10, 2020 2:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296707

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Fed is acting as a backstop, ready to do almost anything to avoid a stock slump. With zero interest rates, market flooded with money, and stocks as risky as other assets (with Feds backstop) large crashes are unlikely. We might end up being in a Euro/Japan like situation with mediocre stock returns ...
by guyinlaw
Sat May 09, 2020 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The economy is in free fall. So why isn't the stock market?"
Replies: 153
Views: 15223

Re: "The economy is in free fall. So why isn't the stock market?"

Here is one reason why the stock market is disconnected from the economy. The jobs most affected by the coronavirus are at the low end. Restaurants, hair salons, small shopkeepers, etc... these are low margin businesses that do not contribute much to aggregate economic activity. They employ low wag...
by guyinlaw
Sat May 09, 2020 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1475
Views: 119405

Re: "Fool me once your fault. Fool me twice my fault."

Bogleheads: Long time investors (I'm 96) remember the fads promoted by the investment industry: Penny stocks, Day Trading, the "Nifty-Fifty," Dogs of the Dow, IPOs, Commodities,--and now Small-Cap Value stocks (based almost entirely on past performance which the government warns us against). Why do...
by guyinlaw
Sat May 09, 2020 2:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn't everybody replace SP500 with NTSX?
Replies: 70
Views: 6871

Re: Why doesn't everybody replace SP500 with NTSX?

If the grocery store goes under you still own the milk. If the ETF issuer goes under you still own the underlying stocks and bonds (and in this case, futures) within the ETF. What if “EvilCorp” ETF company took your money, told you it was buying a Vanguard ETF, and tracked it all for you so it appe...
by guyinlaw
Fri May 08, 2020 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn't everybody replace SP500 with NTSX?
Replies: 70
Views: 6871

Re: Why doesn't everybody replace SP500 with NTSX?

1. 2y and 5y has low volatility so won't effect the returns much. LTT futures will dominate the results. Average duration for NTSX is 6-7y Among treasuries exposure 20% exposure to 2 year T futures 20% to 5 year T futures 20% to 10 y (6-10y duration) 20% to 10y ultra (10y duration) 20% to long Bond...
by guyinlaw
Fri May 08, 2020 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn't everybody replace SP500 with NTSX?
Replies: 70
Views: 6871

Re: Why doesn't everybody replace SP500 with NTSX?

Because it's expected return (not risk-adjusted) is actually quite a bit lower than the S&P500; it has only done so well recently because treasury yields have been falling towards 0% (even before COVID-19), resulting in massive capital gains on the bond-side. NTSX uses a ladder of durations but let...
by guyinlaw
Fri May 08, 2020 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5624
Views: 481400

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Silver lining? “If you do want to find a silver lining within the data, almost all of the increase in people that lost their jobs believe that the layoff is temporary at this point, about 97%,” Matthew Luzzetti, U.S. chief economist at Deutsche Bank tells Yahoo Finance. ”If that proves to be accurat...
by guyinlaw
Fri May 08, 2020 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn't everybody replace SP500 with NTSX?
Replies: 70
Views: 6871

Re: Why doesn't everybody replace SP500 with NTSX?

1. NTSX has done well because of falling interest rates and rebalancing gains. 2. The fund will perform poorly in an increasing interest rate environment. Interest rates are unlikely to increase in the near future, but it is a risk. 3. Advisors don't like NTSX or any balanced funds that has both sto...
by guyinlaw
Fri May 08, 2020 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5624
Views: 481400

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Love this rally. 14% unemployment rate, 1 in 5 people missed May rent payments and bankruptcies are starting up..

And yes states are opening..

PS. My portfolio is happy up "a lot" YTD.
by guyinlaw
Wed May 06, 2020 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When to sell low? Buffett sells entire airline stake
Replies: 63
Views: 9524

Re: When to sell low? Buffett sells entire airline stake

This makes me wanna drop some "night out dinner money" on airlines. But delta or southwest? Any thoughts? I think these two are most poised to rebound. (I'm not talking major investing here, so relax.) I would not invest in airlines. 1. Lucrative international travel is dead for many years. 2. Busi...
by guyinlaw
Mon May 04, 2020 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Disney the most tempting value stock?
Replies: 222
Views: 12988

Re: Is Disney the most tempting value stock?

I don't think so. Disney will be hit hard by covid-19 and the markets know it. When they do open the parks when will it return to normal? They are losing a ton of money right now. It is pretty impossible to socially distance there. The digital side of the business will be fine but I'd be concerned ...
by guyinlaw
Mon May 04, 2020 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18799
Views: 2628006

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Netflix has larger market cap than Disney.. Closing in on ATT and Verizon..
by guyinlaw
Mon May 04, 2020 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now?
Replies: 110
Views: 7910

Re: If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now?

Buffet on the short term is very cautious (bearish) Few things he said/has done -- “Cash on hand isn’t all that huge when you think about worst-case possibilities.” --$137 billion was their cash on hand -- “This is a very good time to borrow money, which means it may not be such a great time to lend...
by guyinlaw
Sun May 03, 2020 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4906
Views: 423935

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Lots of folks in the thread have expressed concern over TMF in this strategy in the current environment but no one’s recently discussed any alternatives in depth. So if not TMF in a flat interest rate environment, what then? Replace it with, say, TYD? A combination of different duration treasury fu...
by guyinlaw
Sun May 03, 2020 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now?
Replies: 110
Views: 7910

Re: If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now?

Buffet did zero buybacks in April ==> he thinks his stock is pricey and the market is pricey.. Buffet doesn't make decisions alone..he has a smart group of people working for him/advising him. two possibilities - Buffet thinks valuations too expensive and expects better prices in future. - stocks wh...
by guyinlaw
Sun May 03, 2020 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4906
Views: 423935

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

UPRO-TMF (55-45) Performance Mar-April 2020 UPRO-TMF -- down 9.16% SPY -- down 1.35% With Long term interest rates at its lowest in the near term, TMF will be not provide risk parity IMO. Fed will be holding it "flat" in the near term. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&time...
by guyinlaw
Sun May 03, 2020 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4906
Views: 423935

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

UPRO-TMF (55-45) Performance Mar-April 2020 UPRO-TMF -- down 9.16% SPY -- down 1.35% With Long term interest rates at its lowest in the near term, TMF will be not provide risk parity IMO. Fed will be holding it "flat" in the near term. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timeP...
by guyinlaw
Sun May 03, 2020 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now?
Replies: 110
Views: 7910

Re: If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now?

If he sold at $25, he expects $15 is coming.

The real news is he was not a major buyer during this drawdown. No share buybacks in April. Maybe be he was surprised by aggressive Fed action, or expecting a larger drawdown or just missed the chance to buy.
by guyinlaw
Sun May 03, 2020 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now?
Replies: 110
Views: 7910

Re: If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now?

Buffet is market timing. Monday won't be pretty. Berkshire Hathaway Chairman and billionaire value investor Warren Buffett said that the conglomerate has sold the entirety of its position in the U.S. airline industry. The prior stake, worth north of $4 billion dollars, included positions in United, ...
by guyinlaw
Fri May 01, 2020 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you invest in REITs, are you sticking with VNQ/VGSLX or getting selective
Replies: 3
Views: 375

Re: If you invest in REITs, are you sticking with VNQ/VGSLX or getting selective

XLRE gives exposure to these Large REITs and Tower/tech REITs. VNQ vs XLRE expense 0.12% vs 0.13% avg market cap 27B vs 40B Top 10 holdings 37% vs 59% https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/2/5/1723581-15809294072090566.png https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/2/5/1723581-1580921761515...
by guyinlaw
Fri May 01, 2020 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you invest in REITs, are you sticking with VNQ/VGSLX or getting selective
Replies: 3
Views: 375

If you invest in REITs, are you sticking with VNQ/VGSLX or getting selective

This question is for people who invest in REITs outside of TSM/SP500. (to avoid answers like "I have REITs in TSM") Are you sticking with VNQ/VGSLX - Vanguard Real Estate ETF or invested in other alternatives? What is max allocations to REITs outside TSM? As more and more companies permanently move ...
by guyinlaw
Fri May 01, 2020 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now?
Replies: 110
Views: 7910

Re: If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now?

I’d suggest having a well tested strategy to move you in and out of the market if that’s what you want, not trying to figure out the smoke signals and subjectively make the decision. You won’t consistently be right enough to be better off. I agree with you. I would not want to do this in normal cir...
by guyinlaw
Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now?
Replies: 110
Views: 7910

Re: If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now?

theorist wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:16 am
Yup. I’m 70/30 with 5% bands and now a bit over 76/24. I will rebalance today or tomorrow unless it falls back into the allowed band! (Rebalanced into stocks a few weeks ago. Weird.)
Would Bogleheads frown upon rebalancing twice in a month?
by guyinlaw
Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now?
Replies: 110
Views: 7910

Re: If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now?

IMO next two years will be horrible, for companies and economy. This is my opinion based on the data and information. Stocks high valuations are looking though this uncertainty into 2022. I am taking some risk off the table.. Anyhow most people believe low returns for stocks for the next decade, so ...
by guyinlaw
Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to I invest in the self-driving car industry?
Replies: 64
Views: 3278

Re: How to I invest in the self-driving car industry?

drk wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:22 am
Uber (Otto), Google (Waymo), GM (owns Cruise), Tesla (Auto-Pilot), Nvidia (GPUs), Amazon (cloud services)
Google will be the likely winner.. Best to invest in broad market..