Search found 50 matches

by guyinlaw
Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil price going to a $100-- time to change your asset allocation??
Replies: 61
Views: 5758

Oil price going to a $100-- time to change your asset allocation??

Drones knocked 50% of Saudi oil supply. Oil price is rising.. If it stays high for a sustained period along with the tariffs, it will not be good. Historical oil chart shows that price has spiked before recessions. Is it prudent to reduce stock exposure now? Yes market timing is bad.. Stocks have be...
by guyinlaw
Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wisdom tree fund compare tool (includes wisdom tree funds and indexs)
Replies: 2
Views: 394

Re: Wisdom tree fund compare tool (includes wisdom tree funds and indexs)

I thought I would share this as it seems of interest to many here. This tool will compare any wisdom tree funds to other wisdom tree funds or to indexes. It includes most of the indexes of interest. Of note this tool includes a lot of info that is hard to find like net buyback yield and % of compan...
by guyinlaw
Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 272
Views: 24800

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

Yes in few months back AUM had gone up $20M, then within a month they sold ~$15M. I wonder if someone is adding this when total stock market gets to all time high. It sucks that Merrill Edge blocks this, where my Roth is. I am adding slowly in another taxable account. PS. Did you know that this ETF ...
by guyinlaw
Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12036
Views: 2048342

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Wonder if we will see the lows of 2018 Dec? I hope over the next 6-8 months. It is pretty pointless talking about what might happen. But as Mr Bernstein says, if you are in your saving phase you get down on your knees and pray for a long bear market. 🐻 With this topic over 240 pages long, this might...
by guyinlaw
Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Add Momentum Factor
Replies: 36
Views: 2164

Re: How to Add Momentum Factor

I don't know if you all want to do some market timing or not, but MTUM is trading lower today by 1.5% while IJS (small-cap value) is trading up more than 2%. That's a 3.5% "gap" for some reason in just a few hours. I've got some itchy fingers, but I have not placed a trade ... yet. Yes, today value...
by guyinlaw
Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]
Replies: 206
Views: 19257

Re: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]

1) Does this "index fund bubble" apply to bond indices like BND as well? The might be a high stock market valuation (bubble). I don't think there is any "index fund bubble." In the past many mutual funds were in reality closet index funds. They used to charge high fees, now Index funds do the same ...
by guyinlaw
Mon Sep 09, 2019 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3X leveraged ETFs - where are the gains coming from?
Replies: 40
Views: 3022

Re: 3X leveraged ETFs - where are the gains coming from?

There doesn't have to be an absolute "loser" in this derivatives trade. Consider that many people and institutions have long exposure to equities in their natural state. Many of them might want to enter into short transactions just to reduce risk. Yes, a particular short position will lose value if...
by guyinlaw
Sun Sep 08, 2019 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Leveraged ETFs vs. Bogleheads Investment Philosophy]
Replies: 113
Views: 4050

Re: [Leveraged ETFs vs. Bogleheads Investment Philosophy]

So far NTSX, WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund (50% leverage) seems pretty good, I haven't seen any concerns. I understand the AUM is small and it is relatively new fund. The expense ratio of 0.2% is not high. https://www.wisdomtree.com/etfs/asset-allocation/ntsx It performed pretty well since inc...
by guyinlaw
Sun Sep 08, 2019 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 272
Views: 24800

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

I'm really interested in getting in on this fund. What are the potential downsides of having such a low AUM though? If the fund closes, you are forced to realize gains. AUM is 14M has grown 3 times since earlier this year. Typically a fund is in trouble if under 5M. (search ETF death watch). Wisdon...
by guyinlaw
Sat Sep 07, 2019 9:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is it a right time to start invest ?
Replies: 27
Views: 2553

Re: Is it a right time to start invest ?

What if You Only Invested at Market Peaks?

Meet Bob. Bob is the world’s worst market timer.

Best time to invest is when you have cash. Go through the wiki pages.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started
by guyinlaw
Fri Sep 06, 2019 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]
Replies: 206
Views: 19257

Re: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]

The ETF uses an authorized participant (AP) to form creation units. For an ETF tracking the S&P 500, an AP would form a creation unit of shares in all the S&P 500 companies in a weighting equal to that of the underlying index. The AP would then transfer the creation unit to the ETF provider on an e...
by guyinlaw
Fri Sep 06, 2019 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 272
Views: 24800

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

PV LINK It seems to me like NTSX is a pretty versatile fund. Has anyone bought NTSX? How much and /or what % of your portfolio? I was planning to buy some in my Roth account 1. Performance seems pretty good During Dec 2018 NTSX draw down was -12.3% Total stock market drawdown was -19.6% Since Aug 2...
by guyinlaw
Thu Sep 05, 2019 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]
Replies: 206
Views: 19257

Re: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]

Unemployment rate at 3.7%, Inflation is at 1.8%, stock market near 10 year high. Market is expecting another 0.5% interest rate cut from the Fed.

So who is to blame for the bubble?
by guyinlaw
Tue Sep 03, 2019 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on XSOE EM index fund
Replies: 4
Views: 481

Re: Thoughts on XSOE EM index fund

Would you recommend XSOE over VWU emerging market ETF? I understand many of you may prefer to stick with VXUS (VTIAX) 1. I remember Bill Bernstein suggesting 1/3rd each in European, Pacific and EM. If you agree with that VXUS (VTIAX) may not be ideal as it is 41% Europe, 29% pacific, 22% EM and 8% o...
by guyinlaw
Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Bill Bernstein: Next "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast guest
Replies: 56
Views: 4759

Re: Dr. Bill Bernstein: Next "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast guest

Question

Many target date funds have moved to 60%/40% - US/Int for the equity allocation. I remember you book had 75%-25% US/Int in sample portfolio. What would you recommend?
by guyinlaw
Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?
Replies: 116
Views: 11594

Re: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?

Could selling VTIAX now be like selling it in 2000? From 1997-2000 US Total Market --- 15.63% CAGR Total Int Market (exUS --- 5.90% CAGR https://tinyurl.com/y28y7fgk From 2001-2007 US Total Market --- 4.30% CAGR Total Int Market (exUS --- 9.96% CAGR https://tinyurl.com/y3mnlxvy I own Emerging Market...
by guyinlaw
Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Overweight China and Emerging Markets? (Ray Dalio)
Replies: 34
Views: 3597

Re: Overweight China and Emerging Markets? (Ray Dalio)

Ray Dalio Funds are down this year. The three Pure Alpha funds are down 6%, 9% and 18%. They seemed to have bet heavily for interest rate rise.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -rate-bets
by guyinlaw
Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio Inspired a New Risk-Parity ETF
Replies: 8
Views: 1069

Re: Ray Dalio Inspired a New Risk-Parity ETF

Ray Dalio Funds are down this year. The three Pure Alpha funds are down 6%, 9% and 18%. They seemed to have bet heavily for interest rate rise. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-29/dalio-s-flagship-hedge-fund-gets-burned-by-wrong-way-rate-bets Though the Risk Parity ETF maybe similar t...
by guyinlaw
Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 25317

Re: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]

I heard the 2015 Masters in Business podcast with Rick Ferri https://ritholtz.com/2015/04/masters-in-business-rick-ferri/ Start listening at t=59mins for discussion about factor investing. This was simple explanation.(As it goes on at around 1h:05m, the interviewer mixes up factor investing with alp...
by guyinlaw
Sun Aug 25, 2019 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Overweight China and Emerging Markets? (Ray Dalio)
Replies: 34
Views: 3597

Re: Overweight China and Emerging Markets? (Ray Dalio)

Chinese companies have been diluting their shares (China govt divesting their holding etc). This is one major reason of lagging performance even when their GDP is growing very rapidly. See charts and Article below The Stock Bull’s Buyback Boost ......... Take China, whose economy over the past decad...
by guyinlaw
Sun Aug 25, 2019 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Overweight China and Emerging Markets? (Ray Dalio)
Replies: 34
Views: 3597

Re: Overweight China and Emerging Markets? (Ray Dalio)

See this discussed earlier

Ray Dalio bullish on China (China market cap to overtake US in 2030?)
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=288116

WSJ Article: Think Before You Fish for Bargains in Chinese Stocks
viewtopic.php?t=281812
by guyinlaw
Sat Aug 24, 2019 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 25317

Re: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]

Below is excerpt from Chapter 9 of "Your Complete Guide to Factor-Based Investing: The Way Smart Money Invests Today by Berkin & Swedroe" ... market beta is the measure of the risk of a portfolio relative to the risk of the stock market, as determined by how much the portfolio and the market as a wh...
by guyinlaw
Tue Aug 20, 2019 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio bullish on China (China market cap to overtake US in 2030?)
Replies: 47
Views: 3727

Re: Ray Dalio bullish on China (China market cap to overtake US in 2030?)

Another reason why China Stock market has been lagging The Stock Bull’s Buyback Boost Whatever else you may think about stock buybacks, it’s quite likely that, but for them, the U.S. stock market today would be markedly lower. That is the implication of a study published last year in the Financial n...
by guyinlaw
Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Saving for a new car
Replies: 14
Views: 1207

Re: Saving for a new car

I am driving a 2000 Toyota 4runner with 253000 miles on it. Great vehicle that has never let me down. However, I know its days are numbered (sadly!), and I was wondering what fund to invest in for a time horizon of 2-3 years? I am expecting my runner to give me at least another 3 years before it di...
by guyinlaw
Sun Aug 18, 2019 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not invest in sector ETFs?
Replies: 32
Views: 2267

Re: Why not invest in sector ETFs?

Buffett's advice to regular investor is 90/10 portfolio with " 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds"
by guyinlaw
Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you think oil prices will drop where would you invest?
Replies: 70
Views: 3564

Re: If you think oil prices will drop where would you invest?

Don't invest is electric car companies. They don't make money even when cars that cost $40k++. Tesla, GM and Nissan have all lost money with EVs.

Average selling price of Tesla car is more than $60k still they don't make money..
by guyinlaw
Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 25317

Re: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap

SCZ country wise allocation is quite different than VXUS.

Japan 29%
UK 17%
Rest of Europe 24%

https://etfdb.com/etf/SCZ/

Japan 17%
UK 11%
Rest of Europe 33%

ttps://etfdb.com/etf/VXUS/
by guyinlaw
Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio bullish on China (China market cap to overtake US in 2030?)
Replies: 47
Views: 3727

Re: Ray Dalio bullish on China (China market cap to overtake US in 2030?)

The same stocks in China trade at significant discount in HK vs in China. See: http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/anh.shtml e.g. Bank of China (HK.3988) trades at a 25% discount in HK vs Shenzhen. Luoyang Glass (HK.1108) trades at a whopping 86% discount in HK vs Shenzhen. If you are interest...
by guyinlaw
Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio bullish on China (China market cap to overtake US in 2030?)
Replies: 47
Views: 3727

Re: Ray Dalio bullish on China (China market cap to overtake US in 2030?)

Total World Stock Index Fund VTWAX/ VT - Invests 54% in US, 21% in Europe and 3% in China. Most experts believe that US Stocks will return under 5% over the next decade. (see below) Vanguard expects non-US equities to perform 1 to 5% better than US stocks over the next decade. Bridgewater's Alpha fu...
by guyinlaw
Mon Aug 12, 2019 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio bullish on China (China market cap to overtake US in 2030?)
Replies: 47
Views: 3727

Re: Ray Dalio bullish on China (China market cap to overtake US in 2030?)

Conflict of interest. the cynic inside me also says that these recent publications are marketing hype for their new product. Bridgewater has $125B assets under management. They are the largest hedge fund, close to twice their nearest competitor. Some of their funds are closed and don't think they w...
by guyinlaw
Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio bullish on China (China market cap to overtake US in 2030?)
Replies: 47
Views: 3727

Re: Ray Dalio bullish on China (China market cap to overtake US in 2030?)

But the graph is labeled with GDP, not equity returns. Chinese GDP has also not exceeded US GDP (yet). The GDP is Purchase Power Parity adjusted. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP) China did overtake US in GDP (PPP) Stock market capitalization is the third small chart....
by guyinlaw
Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio bullish on China (China market cap to overtake US in 2030?)
Replies: 47
Views: 3727

Ray Dalio bullish on China (China market cap to overtake US in 2030?)

[Thread merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek] Dalio has been very vocal about investing in China. He has said “ Not investing in China is ‘very risky’ ”. The videos and some of the information is on their website. https://www.bridgewater.com/china/ Their chart below expects China's total s...
by guyinlaw
Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I'm 31, and 95% stocks. Given economy indicators, would moving 20-30% to BND be "timing"?
Replies: 67
Views: 6261

Re: I'm 31, and 95% stocks. Given economy indicators, would moving 20-30% to BND be "timing"?

Personally I am taking my own amateur version of Ray Dalio's All-Weather fund approach where you have different asset classes with different degrees of correlation. Isn't the Dalio all weather portfolio 30% stock, 60% bonds and rest in gold/commodities? With bonds stuck in low interest rate for >10...
by guyinlaw
Sun Aug 11, 2019 3:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I'm 31, and 95% stocks. Given economy indicators, would moving 20-30% to BND be "timing"?
Replies: 67
Views: 6261

Re: I'm 31, and 95% stocks. Given economy indicators, would moving 20-30% to BND be "timing"?

Jack Bogle himself says he sold his stocks in year 2000 because valuations did not make any sense to him in those years. :shock: https://youtu.be/k6ra5POdsYg Minute 2:57 "I said, you know... with bonds yielding around 7% today, stocks yielding around 1%... stock market being at that point closer to ...
by guyinlaw
Sat Aug 10, 2019 7:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are you a "solo ager?"
Replies: 133
Views: 17507

Re: Are you a "solo ager?"

I wonder if I would even want to continue living once dementia kicks in. I mean, what’s the point if all you are doing is languishing in a hospital being moved from bed to wheel chair to bathroom and back again unaware of the world. Same here. I became convinced of that while spending time at my fa...
by guyinlaw
Mon Aug 05, 2019 4:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buy During This Dip?
Replies: 99
Views: 12647

Re: Buy During This Dip?

The SP500 is

21% above 1 year low in Dec 18
52% above 5 year low in Feb 16

I received some funds from RE sale few months back. Bought some VTI and VXUS today.
by guyinlaw
Thu Aug 01, 2019 9:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I find Happiness at TD Ameritrade?
Replies: 16
Views: 1146

Re: Can I find Happiness at TD Ameritrade?

Skeeter1 wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 9:36 am
My “advisor “ has me in 26 different funds so it will be a project to transition properly ( tax efficiently) into the 3 fund portfolio.
I think you should post the full list of 26 funds, % holding, taxable or IRA A/C breakdown.
by guyinlaw
Thu Aug 01, 2019 9:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does this make sense?
Replies: 6
Views: 635

Re: Does this make sense?

You have access to excellent CD rates, that seems better than most other bond funds. https://www.navyfederal.org/products-services/checking-savings/certificates.php I am in the military and stationed overseas Did you take your vehicle with you overseas? If it sits in a garage for a few years you mig...
by guyinlaw
Tue Jul 30, 2019 9:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Stop myself from making bad trades
Replies: 35
Views: 2493

Stop myself from making bad trades

I occasionally go into my brokerage account and make bad trades. For example - Sometimes I have a strong conviction about a company, and impulsively buy options and option spreads. I later realise this is close to gambling and want to stop doing this. This is always under 5% of my account, usually m...
by guyinlaw
Mon Jul 29, 2019 2:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying Amazon Stock
Replies: 28
Views: 3445

Re: Buying Amazon Stock

I would highly recommend to stick with low cost ETFs or funds and not buy individual stocks. VTI total US stock market VXUS excluding US total Stock market. IETC - is a great technology ETF. It is low cost and includes all the large technology companies (unlike VGT that doesn't include Amazon, Faceb...
by guyinlaw
Fri Jul 26, 2019 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Replies: 335
Views: 298258

Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

I like the comment about Asset Allocation for jitters. I'm feeling jittery and amazed at the new heights of the S&P500, sold off a small amount of VTI to take some profit and keep more in cash. I just can't help thinking it if it's going so high, it's going to be a big crash, to come back to the me...
by guyinlaw
Wed Jul 24, 2019 9:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good CD Rates Over the Long Haul
Replies: 13
Views: 1703

Re: Good CD Rates Over the Long Haul

Navy Federal CU is offering 3.5% on their 5 year CDs. I'd call that a relatively good rate, considering current rates generally. They also seem to have relatively flexible parameters for qualifying for membership. Hmm... share please? I am not military or have any family members who are military. N...
by guyinlaw
Wed Jul 24, 2019 8:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can we afford $600k home?
Replies: 98
Views: 6871

Re: Can we afford $600k home?

My friend who is single and in her 40s bought a new townhouse for $400k+. She put zero down. She doesn't have much savings outside 401k. Salary around 130k I tried to steer her towards older house around 350k or rent a townhouse for $2k. She was tired of renting apartment and wanted more space. I gu...
by guyinlaw
Tue Jul 23, 2019 6:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: YieldStreet latest offering - North Florida Pre-Development Financing
Replies: 11
Views: 895

Re: YieldStreet latest offering - North Florida Pre-Development Financing

The offering was fully funded within minutes of opening. People are chasing yields and don't seem to care...

Thank you all for advice.
by guyinlaw
Mon Jul 22, 2019 11:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: YieldStreet latest offering - North Florida Pre-Development Financing
Replies: 11
Views: 895

Re: YieldStreet latest offering - North Florida Pre-Development Financing

I started using their "wallet" which is savings account with 2.2% interest and FDIC insured. Have been tempted to diversify outside stock market. Will wait for other opportunities, and 10k minimum is bit high for my liking.
by guyinlaw
Mon Jul 22, 2019 8:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: YieldStreet latest offering - North Florida Pre-Development Financing
Replies: 11
Views: 895

YieldStreet latest offering - North Florida Pre-Development Financing

Below is the latest offering from YieldStreet. Any thoughts? North Florida Pre-Development Financing YieldStreet Real Estate provided a $4.0M first mortgage bridge loan secured by 23.5 acres of land within a 3,000-acre master-planned community outside Jacksonville, Florida. Total Loan - $4M Annual I...
by guyinlaw
Tue Jul 16, 2019 10:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ultra short term bond ETF comparison - saving account alternative
Replies: 6
Views: 885

Ultra short term bond ETF comparison - saving account alternative

Below is the comparison I did on Ultra short term bond ETFs. I do not have access to Vanguard money market fund. I have to keep money Merrill Edge/Bank of America for a few years, that limits other options. I have my cash reserve in SHV, ICSH, VCSH and cash. (around 40%, 20%, 15%, 25%). Cash reserve...
by guyinlaw
Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Going to law school question
Replies: 55
Views: 3578

Re: Going to law school question

There are many with engineering and professional backgrounds who go law school in the evenings, its grueling but possible. Depends on support from work and home. 1. Part time law takes 4 years, classes are 2-4 days/week in the evenings - depends on the classes you choose. Full time takes 3 years. I ...