Search found 169 matches

by coffeeblack
Sat Jul 04, 2020 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 178
Views: 8571

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

Sitting around most of the day doing nothing while retired and waiting for the next vacation or whatever is not good either. Very few of the posters on this board are going to do that. That's a silly argument. There is a perception that either you work or you don't. Nothing in between will be accep...
by coffeeblack
Sat Jul 04, 2020 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 178
Views: 8571

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

This. I wouldn't mind being broke as a 85 year old, as long as my family is still alive and healthy. +1 and Agreed. I don't understand why people get so hung up on the 4% rule. Most everyone here will have (well) over a million dollars saved, a paid off house, SS, inheritance, and some even with a ...
by coffeeblack
Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 178
Views: 8571

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

My plan has equitoes returning real 2.8% right now. I estimate SWR using PE10 (CAPE). 3.33% is 30 years of expenses saved up that you want to last 30 years. One needs 0% real return to make that work (yes, yes, sequence of returns matters) 3% is silly low. I disagree that 3% is "silly low" given to...
by coffeeblack
Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bond duration glide path for retirement investing
Replies: 53
Views: 3040

Re: A bond duration glide path for retirement investing

Why can't you just buy intermediate term bonds and get the average of the short and long? Since no one knows where interest rates are going to be, it seems this is a better idea. +1. The only other thing I do is hold a couple of years cash and short-term bonds for money I might need in the near fut...
by coffeeblack
Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bond duration glide path for retirement investing
Replies: 53
Views: 3040

Re: A bond duration glide path for retirement investing

Why can't you just buy intermediate term bonds and get the average of the short and long? Since no one knows where interest rates are going to be, it seems this is a better idea. The OP isn't about timing the market or predicting where rates could go. It is about reducing interest rate risk (and re...
by coffeeblack
Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bond duration glide path for retirement investing
Replies: 53
Views: 3040

Re: A bond duration glide path for retirement investing

Why can't you just buy intermediate term bonds and get the average of the short and long? Since no one knows where interest rates are going to be, it seems this is a better idea.
by coffeeblack
Sat Jun 20, 2020 12:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: High net worth portfolio advice
Replies: 129
Views: 11602

Re: High net worth portfolio advice

Thank you for the initial feedback! livesoft: I've read The Investor's Manifesto by Bernstein and A Man for All Markets by Ed Thorp. I plan to work my way through Bogleheads' recommended reading list ( 1 , 2 ), but I also just started a new company and I know it will take time to cover it. In the m...
by coffeeblack
Sat Jun 20, 2020 11:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: High net worth portfolio advice
Replies: 129
Views: 11602

Re: High net worth portfolio advice

Hi fellow Bogleheads, I believe to be in a fairly unique financial situation, and I would appreciate hearing what others think. I'm looking for simple and honest financial advice, and I can't think of a better community to ask this question. I've done my best to be concise but comprehensive in desc...
by coffeeblack
Sat Jun 20, 2020 12:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retiring Abroad
Replies: 109
Views: 10619

Re: Retiring Abroad

I've been thinking of doing something like you. Couple of questions. 1. Do you have to pay for your apartment all year or is it possible to find a good deal for a six month stay? 2. How long did your visa process take and how often do you have to renew? 1. Yes, we pay for our European apartment all...
by coffeeblack
Fri Jun 19, 2020 5:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retiring Abroad
Replies: 109
Views: 10619

Re: Retiring Abroad

In “normal” (non-Covid-19) times, my wife and I split our years between our home in a HCOL area in the USA and a medium COL city in Europe. We own a home in the USA and rent an apartment in Europe. We use our European apartment as our hub for travel throughout Europe. I’d estimate that our non-trav...
by coffeeblack
Thu Jun 04, 2020 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where to buy weight plates for home gym?
Replies: 20
Views: 1271

Re: Where to buy weight plates for home gym?

Morning everyone, I'm in the process of building a home gym, for now all I'm looking for is a power rack for squats/bench purposes. I have everything but weight plates; looking for a relatively inexpensive ~300lb set of plates but all the usual sources online have no inventory. Anyone have suggesti...
by coffeeblack
Sun May 17, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement
Replies: 115
Views: 5972

Re: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement

My understanding is if you are using firecalc or lets say fidelity calc. if you show a high degree of success it accounts for worst case scenarios. The trinity study and the 4% guidance was demonstrating success under the worst case scenerios.
by coffeeblack
Wed May 13, 2020 3:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: BJJ -martial art
Replies: 58
Views: 3118

Re: BJJ -martial art

Pointers I've gotten so far include that the school vibe and the instructor are the key. Age young 50's. Bike and swim some. Can it safely be started and continued at this age? How old are you? If you've given up on BJJ why? Thanks What is your goal? Self defense Fitness etc. You said you bike and ...
by coffeeblack
Tue May 12, 2020 5:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: BJJ -martial art
Replies: 58
Views: 3118

Re: BJJ -martial art

Pointers I've gotten so far include that the school vibe and the instructor are the key. Age young 50's. Bike and swim some. Can it safely be started and continued at this age? How old are you? If you've given up on BJJ why? Thanks What is your goal? Self defense Fitness etc. You said you bike and ...
by coffeeblack
Mon May 11, 2020 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Going by PORTFOLIO VISUALIZER Wellesley Income fund lasted 35 years with a 9% withdrawal could this be right?
Replies: 32
Views: 2710

Re: Going by PORTFOLIO VISUALIZER Wellesley Income fund lasted 35 years with a 9% withdrawal could this be right?

Why guess that it's going to be a horrible return scenario? Why not guess it's going to be amazing returns? Retirees have no human capital so they need to cover their (fat?) tails. Planning for amazing returns could result in eating dog food. I didn't say they should plan for that. I said either wa...
by coffeeblack
Mon May 11, 2020 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Going by PORTFOLIO VISUALIZER Wellesley Income fund lasted 35 years with a 9% withdrawal could this be right?
Replies: 32
Views: 2710

Re: Going by PORTFOLIO VISUALIZER Wellesley Income fund lasted 35 years with a 9% withdrawal could this be right?

How do you know that? We had 2000 and 2008 in that timeline and inflation in the 80's and it was still a good time period. So How can you cay that this time it will be different. I bet if someone was asked this question in the 80's they would say something similar or worse. You can't tell the futur...
by coffeeblack
Mon May 11, 2020 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Going by PORTFOLIO VISUALIZER Wellesley Income fund lasted 35 years with a 9% withdrawal could this be right?
Replies: 32
Views: 2710

Re: Going by PORTFOLIO VISUALIZER Wellesley Income fund lasted 35 years with a 9% withdrawal could this be right?

coffeeblack wrote: You can't tell the future. No one can. So why the doomsday scenario? I don't think I painted a doomsday scenario, only a realistic guess (admittedly a guess) at expected returns which I believe will be considerably less than Wellesley Income's 9% withdrawal rate over the last 35 ...
by coffeeblack
Mon May 11, 2020 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Going by PORTFOLIO VISUALIZER Wellesley Income fund lasted 35 years with a 9% withdrawal could this be right?
Replies: 32
Views: 2710

Re: Going by PORTFOLIO VISUALIZER Wellesley Income fund lasted 35 years with a 9% withdrawal could this be right?

How do you know that? We had 2000 and 2008 in that timeline and inflation in the 80's and it was still a good time period. So How can you cay that this time it will be different. I bet if someone was asked this question in the 80's they would say something similar or worse. You can't tell the futur...
by coffeeblack
Mon May 11, 2020 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Going by PORTFOLIO VISUALIZER Wellesley Income fund lasted 35 years with a 9% withdrawal could this be right?
Replies: 32
Views: 2710

Re: Going by PORTFOLIO VISUALIZER Wellesley Income fund lasted 35 years with a 9% withdrawal could this be right?

The period of 1985 to 2020 was a fabulous time to be heavily invested in US bonds and US LC dividend paying stocks which is where Wellesley operates. It was the greatest bond bull market in US history and a period of robust economic growth combined with ever decreasing deflation which expanded stoc...
by coffeeblack
Sun May 10, 2020 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Going by PORTFOLIO VISUALIZER Wellesley Income fund lasted 35 years with a 9% withdrawal could this be right?
Replies: 32
Views: 2710

Re: Going by PORTFOLIO VISUALIZER Wellesley Income fund lasted 35 years with a 9% withdrawal could this be right?

Sure. When I put in 1 million with an inflation adjusted withdraw of 50K per year, at the end of 34 year there is 3 million inflation adjusted left over. I used cashx. If I use 20 percent in vwinx and 80% in cashx I would have over 5 million inflation adjusted. Hard to believe. But then it is what w...
by coffeeblack
Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial/career and life advice requested
Replies: 34
Views: 3499

Re: Financial/career and life advice requested

Dear Bogleheads: I am seeking some honest help And Opinions on our situation. I like this board a lot both financial and non financial topics give me something to think about. Pardon the ramble I will try to make this coherent as I am in somewhat of a career stress point. Let me also preface as I h...
by coffeeblack
Thu Jan 23, 2020 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Getting $2 Million in Cash! What do I do with it?
Replies: 75
Views: 6619

Re: Getting $2 Million in Cash! What do I do with it?

Jmustang81 wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:42 pm
You know what! I think I might actually watch this tonight. Haha!
coffeeblack wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:12 pm
I recently watched this movie. I think this link will answer your question. All in fun. :sharebeer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdfeXqHFmPI
It was a good film.
by coffeeblack
Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Getting $2 Million in Cash! What do I do with it?
Replies: 75
Views: 6619

Re: Getting $2 Million in Cash! What do I do with it?

I recently watched this movie. I think this link will answer your question. All in fun. :sharebeer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdfeXqHFmPI
by coffeeblack
Sat Jan 18, 2020 1:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reverse mortgage vs cash out refi
Replies: 20
Views: 548

Re: Reverse mortgage vs cash out refi

What would a reverse mortgage on a 2.5 million dollar house look like? What would be the payout? There's a legal limit on how much you can get - $726K as of last year. So will that be enough to do what she wants? There is still lots of equity left. You said the family is well off and does not reall...
by coffeeblack
Sat Jan 18, 2020 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reverse mortgage vs cash out refi
Replies: 20
Views: 548

Re: Reverse mortgage vs cash out refi

What would a reverse mortgage on a 2.5 million dollar house look like? What would be the payout?
by coffeeblack
Mon Jan 13, 2020 9:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me understand these two funds.
Replies: 2
Views: 394

Help me understand these two funds.

VFITX (total intermediate bond fund) has a 5.53% return average since inception and a 6.29% return for one year. VWITX (intermediate Mini federal tax exempt) has a 5.35% return since inception and 6.78 return for one year. There is no federal tax and the returns seem close. So why would one not get ...
by coffeeblack
Sun Jan 12, 2020 2:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we retire?
Replies: 120
Views: 11366

Re: Can we retire?

Yes you can retire any time. You have enough $$. You will have to work out the health insurance issues and when and how much to do for Roth conversions. But you are good to go. But do you have a hobby or play work or travel plan to take up your time? Fifty is pretty young to stop working. Most peop...
by coffeeblack
Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 1 million cash - looking for low risk investment
Replies: 53
Views: 6560

Re: 1 million cash - looking for low risk investment

If you run the number with the same fund using the monte carlo and use a 50 year retirement you get similar numbers. Using 3.7% SWR. The only issue is if you use a 10 year sequence of return risk you lose big. If you you bootstarp (which I'm not sure what this actually means) you seem to do well. So...
by coffeeblack
Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In my opinion, Best Overall Retirement Article
Replies: 95
Views: 11166

Re: In my opinion, Best Overall Retirement Article

Good article, but not great and hardly the best IMHO. I take issue with several points, but mostly this: "The world and markets cannot guarantee your financial stability for forty to fifty years of retirement." This reveals the author's lack of knowledge, that I hope has improved in the 7 years sin...
by coffeeblack
Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In my opinion, Best Overall Retirement Article
Replies: 95
Views: 11166

Re: In my opinion, Best Overall Retirement Article

Good article, but not great and hardly the best IMHO. I take issue with several points, but mostly this: "The world and markets cannot guarantee your financial stability for forty to fifty years of retirement." This reveals the author's lack of knowledge, that I hope has improved in the 7 years sin...
by coffeeblack
Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cosmetology School vs Traditional College
Replies: 99
Views: 6134

Re: Cosmetology School vs Traditional College

I believe men and women should be self sufficient first and not have to rely on someone else to take care of them. You daughter is in junior high. At that age kids change their minds several times before reaching adulthood. Even some college students change majors several times. The best approach is...
by coffeeblack
Sun Jan 05, 2020 12:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now is a good time to start tracking your net worth.
Replies: 123
Views: 11464

Re: Now is a good time to start tracking your net worth.

That is what the software is set at when they run the calculator. Or sometimes 2%. The reasoning is sound. Most people don't spend much later in life. But also think about the last 5 to 7 years. Has your spending gone up that much with inflation (cpi). I spend about the same as I did 5 years ago. T...
by coffeeblack
Sun Jan 05, 2020 12:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now is a good time to start tracking your net worth.
Replies: 123
Views: 11464

Re: Now is a good time to start tracking your net worth.

If you are not already tracking your net worth now is a good time to start tracking it. I have a very simple spreadsheet that I update each year on January 1st and I have been doing this for 16 years now. It only takes me about 15 minutes to enter my account balances, any debts, and estimates of th...
by coffeeblack
Sun Jan 05, 2020 12:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now is a good time to start tracking your net worth.
Replies: 123
Views: 11464

Re: Now is a good time to start tracking your net worth.

If you are not already tracking your net worth now is a good time to start tracking it. I have a very simple spreadsheet that I update each year on January 1st and I have been doing this for 16 years now. It only takes me about 15 minutes to enter my account balances, any debts, and estimates of th...
by coffeeblack
Wed Jan 01, 2020 8:16 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Favorite country to live in after FIRE?
Replies: 191
Views: 18791

Re: Favorite country to live in after FIRE?

We FIRE'd 18 months ago and have spent our time traveling around the world looking for where we might want to settle down one day. We have visited Peru, Chile, Argentina, Uruguay, Panama, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Belize, Mexico, and Thailand. We'll be going to Cambodia, Vietnam, and Malaysia soon. We...
by coffeeblack
Mon Dec 30, 2019 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Has anyone done Whole 30? [Diet]
Replies: 141
Views: 5882

Re: Has anyone done Whole 30? [Diet]

In case anyone doesn't know what this is, it's a 30-day elimination diet meant to re-set one's relationship with food. Sugar, alcohol, processed foods, legumes, dairy, artificial or natural sweeteners, palm/canola/soybean/corn oil, grains, and soy are not allowed. Meat and poultry, seafood, all veg...
by coffeeblack
Mon Dec 30, 2019 1:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Has anyone done Whole 30? [Diet]
Replies: 141
Views: 5882

Re: Has anyone done Whole 30?

If you eat meats, eggs and oils nothing will change. Just another fad/gimmick. If you have Netflix watch “Forks Over Knives”. Then watch “The Game Changers”. Keep researching. Forks over knives is also a fad. Lots of marketing. The rule is simple. 1/2 of plate should be vegis of all kinds, 1/4 prot...
by coffeeblack
Mon Dec 23, 2019 3:19 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Favorite country to live in after FIRE?
Replies: 191
Views: 18791

Re: Favorite country to live in after FIRE?

Thanks for all the great answers! I do believe there is an obvious separation between US and Non-US retirees (like on this whole forum after all) due to all the visa&tax implications. Home country will always be an option, but only if things do not derail too much. Travel will always be part of it,...
by coffeeblack
Mon Dec 23, 2019 1:18 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Favorite country to live in after FIRE?
Replies: 191
Views: 18791

Re: Favorite country to live in after FIRE?

When you are looking at stats, you always have to consider if they apply to you. In the US, health care is split between people who can pay for it who . get great care and those that don't who get bad care. Would you rather live in a country like that or one that gives everyone good care? If I have...
by coffeeblack
Mon Dec 23, 2019 1:10 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Favorite country to live in after FIRE?
Replies: 191
Views: 18791

Re: Favorite country to live in after FIRE?

I think when a person retires early they may get the itch to go international, see the world beyond just travel for vacation and get to know the culture. I think people may go after this type of freedom. It also may signal they don't currently like where they are living. Their goal of living abroad ...
by coffeeblack
Mon Dec 23, 2019 12:58 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Favorite country to live in after FIRE?
Replies: 191
Views: 18791

Re: Favorite country to live in after FIRE?

Thanks for all the great answers! I do believe there is an obvious separation between US and Non-US retirees (like on this whole forum after all) due to all the visa&tax implications. Home country will always be an option, but only if things do not derail too much. Travel will always be part of it,...
by coffeeblack
Fri Dec 20, 2019 8:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What cost basis do you use and why?
Replies: 33
Views: 1964

What cost basis do you use and why?

I'm trying to decide what would be the best cost basis to use. What is your preferred accounting method with vanguard?
by coffeeblack
Fri Dec 20, 2019 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recommendations of 100% stock lately
Replies: 246
Views: 18405

Re: Recommendations of 100% stock lately

20 years in cash would make you a bit of an outlier for sure. That's not far from what Bernstein recommends (i.e. 20x-25x in fixed income and everything else in stock). Yes. That's correct. If someone has the money it's not a bad approach. Especially if they don't care or need to leave anything to ...
by coffeeblack
Wed Dec 18, 2019 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recommendations of 100% stock lately
Replies: 246
Views: 18405

Re: Recommendations of 100% stock lately

So if someone put 7 to 10 years worth of living expenses in cash/t bills and other bonds and the put the rest 100% stocks it might work as long as the recovery doesn't last more than 10 years. The 60' and 70's come to mind here. But if you had 20 years in cash/t bill and other bonds and the rest in...
by coffeeblack
Wed Dec 18, 2019 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recommendations of 100% stock lately
Replies: 246
Views: 18405

Re: Recommendations of 100% stock lately

I took Swedroe's loss table from the nearly 50% bear market drop in the 70's... https://live.staticflickr.com/1823/42360377644_9dd0982459_n.jpg ...to create my own table to show various Asset Allocations, the amount of loss, and the amount of required subsequent bull market gain it would take to re...
by coffeeblack
Wed Dec 18, 2019 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recommendations of 100% stock lately
Replies: 246
Views: 18405

Re: Recommendations of 100% stock lately

20 years in cash would make you a bit of an outlier for sure. That's not far from what Bernstein recommends (i.e. 20x-25x in fixed income and everything else in stock). Yes. That's correct. If someone has the money it's not a bad approach. Especially if they don't care or need to leave anything to ...
by coffeeblack
Mon Dec 16, 2019 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recommendations of 100% stock lately
Replies: 246
Views: 18405

Re: Recommendations of 100% stock lately

So if someone put 7 to 10 years worth of living expenses in cash/t bills and other bonds and the put the rest 100% stocks it might work as long as the recovery doesn't last more than 10 years. The 60' and 70's come to mind here. But if you had 20 years in cash/t bill and other bonds and the rest in ...
by coffeeblack
Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is anyone else having trouble getting into vanguard [12-1-19]
Replies: 57
Views: 3067

Re: Is anyone else having trouble getting into vangaurd

dixdak wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 2:40 pm
Spell Vanguard correctly? Based on the subject line that’s where I would start.
Right.
How do you spell vanguard???
by coffeeblack
Sun Dec 01, 2019 2:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is anyone else having trouble getting into vanguard [12-1-19]
Replies: 57
Views: 3067

Re: Is anyone else having trouble getting into vangaurd

mortfree wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 1:19 pm
Must be the bad weather in Philly or Vanguard’s business model is not sustainable and they no longer exist.
No it's just Aliens.
by coffeeblack
Sun Dec 01, 2019 2:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is anyone else having trouble getting into vanguard [12-1-19]
Replies: 57
Views: 3067

Re: Is anyone else having trouble getting into vangaurd

Phone worked but not computer. Must be something with their site.