Search found 1719 matches

by firebirdparts
Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:33 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Where did HEDGEFUNDIE go?
Replies: 49
Views: 3996

Re: Where did HEDGEFUNDIE go?

He liked to argue until he didn't. That's kinda what these forums provide. I don't mean BH dot org, I mean all of them.
by firebirdparts
Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 8936
Views: 710313

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Yeah, it's not really my full time job to argue on the internet.
by firebirdparts
Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commercial Real Estate Vacancy
Replies: 7
Views: 629

Re: Commercial Real Estate Vacancy

I'm familiar with a freestanding restaurant building in a prominent location, part of a larger commercial/retail strip property, that sat oddly vacant for 15 years because the owners would not lease it to anyone other than a large restaurant chain paying premium rent. Numerous small mom&pop type re...
by firebirdparts
Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do Bogleheads think of what happen to Japan?
Replies: 64
Views: 4642

Re: What do Bogleheads think of what happen to Japan?

I just got through reading Fully Grown by Dietrich Vollrath and it fully met my biases with confirmation. I already thought all the stuff he wrote. He does not at all resort to using Japan as an example, but you can clearly see that Japan is a highly developed economy, extremely so, with a low birth...
by firebirdparts
Sun Sep 27, 2020 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we NOW in a bubble?
Replies: 72
Views: 6907

Re: Are we NOW in a bubble?

This is not exactly like 1999 but certainly there are several worthless companies with high market cap. If you look, you can find stocks like the stocks that collapsed in 1999, but keep in mind none of these clown stocks are included in the 500 right now. Somebody is buying this trash, and frankly I...
by firebirdparts
Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 8936
Views: 710313

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Crazy stuff!
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 24, 2020 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 580
Views: 59133

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

Just trying to understand the composition of this fund. I tried reading their fact-sheet, but I couldn't find details on how much leverage this fund takes on. I am assuming the 2.55x leverage number quoted earlier in the thread is correct. Looks like the fund is down 2.26% today (Sept 23). Given th...
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 8936
Views: 710313

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

The market put on quite a show. I wouldn't want to sleep through that.
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did your accounts look like in your 30's?
Replies: 89
Views: 7475

Re: What did your accounts look like in your 30's?

Frugalbear wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:14 pm
Also I've only been investing for 6 years and really haven't seen compounding work it's magic.
Username checks out. If you're a bear you won't.
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuing access to workplace retirement space
Replies: 20
Views: 831

Re: Valuing access to workplace retirement space

I tried to duplicate this and I came out pretty close ignoring the taxes paid at the beginning and paying capital gains tax only once. Is that how you did it? In a 401k, I got $40,000 more in 30 years, but $30,000 more in 29 years. Another issue I see everywhere (not here) is converting to present ...
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuing access to workplace retirement space
Replies: 20
Views: 831

Re: Valuing access to workplace retirement space

I tried to duplicate this and I came out pretty close ignoring the taxes paid at the beginning and paying capital gains tax only once. Is that how you did it? In a 401k, I got $40,000 more in 30 years, but $30,000 more in 29 years. Another issue I see everywhere (not here) is converting to present v...
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 24, 2020 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did your accounts look like in your 30's?
Replies: 89
Views: 7475

Re: What did your accounts look like in your 30's?

Great question. I was ahead of the game in my 30's. Some bad things happened that had consequences, but mostly it's been good. - I maxed out my 401k contributions for several years before my 30's: Good - I opened a Roth IRA in about 1999 and invested in individual stocks: Bad - There was absolutely ...
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market Recent Sell Off Mystery
Replies: 67
Views: 6626

Re: Stock Market Recent Sell Off Mystery

Getting back on the subject at hand and away from reading comprehension issues, we are down about 9% on the S&P right this minute. That's where we are. As with all selloffs, we could write the headlines just as well as the people who really write the, but it wouldn't do any good. Stocks are high, bu...
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market Recent Sell Off Mystery
Replies: 67
Views: 6626

Re: Stock Market Recent Sell Off Mystery

How did they get the money out without finding someone to buy their stocks? This is basic stuff. Money cannot move in or out of tradeable securities at all. However, enormous sums of money flow in and out of mutual funds regularly. Simple. When people mis-state this (which wasn't the case here) you...
by firebirdparts
Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 580
Views: 59133

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

It's not as easy to buy as a lot of things, as we've seen in this thread, and that's probably the main issue. I don't have any information about why (for example) Fidelity is trying to restrict it. Why would they do that?
by firebirdparts
Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 580
Views: 59133

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

nehawk87 wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:00 pm Anyone else think it feels odd to invest $100K into PSLDX and then realize you own .01% of the entire fund? Just surprised this fund is still <$1B assets under management.
Considering the past performance I think it's odd.
by firebirdparts
Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone waiting until after the election?
Replies: 145
Views: 12988

Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Imaginary news of the future. It's everywhere. Can't get away from it. Evidently there's no market anymore in the news game for things that actually happened.
by firebirdparts
Mon Sep 21, 2020 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone waiting until after the election?
Replies: 145
Views: 12988

Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

To me, it makes a ton of sense to just look at the historical stock market returns and try to identify USA political events in the past. It's unfruitful. Try it. It seems to me that anybody with a lick of sense would have done this already, because there are always people talking about how politics ...
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inversely Correlated Investments with the Greatest Spread?
Replies: 19
Views: 1038

Re: Inversely Correlated Investments with the Greatest Spread?

It’s trivial to find inversely correlated assets, as fund providers offer plenty, but I think you can’t assemble anything useful out of them.

What you want is Short-term uncorrelated assets that both have high positive returns. That you can work with.
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio issues stark warning about US dollar’s future as global reserve currency
Replies: 42
Views: 3421

Re: Ray Dalio issues stark warning about US dollar’s future as global reserve currency

He keeps talking about this dangerous spiral where the Fed and other central banks have to step in to buy huge chunks of rising US government debt. But how bad would this spiral have to get in order to realistically put the US dollar’s future as a global reserve currency at risk? I’m not qualified ...
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ESG investing making a real impact?
Replies: 9
Views: 545

Re: ESG investing making a real impact?

I think stock “enthusiasts” like TSLA holders are having a much bigger effect. In theory, ESG effects should distort the market. Companies will respond to this, but the truth is that’s really all the CEO does anyway, whether there is ESG demand or not. His main job is to convince investors the stock...
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: any lessons to remember from dot com bubble?
Replies: 22
Views: 2211

Re: any lessons to remember from dot com bubble?

The lessons I learned you already know. You can’t pop the bubble, and you can’t outsmart the market. You have to out-luck it. So you have to invest accordingly. I started with nothing, so for me 100% equities over the last 35 years was fine. I lost half my net worth twice in the space of 10 years, a...
by firebirdparts
Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can VTSAX accidentally sell all its stock holdings?
Replies: 47
Views: 3800

Re: Can VTSAX accidentally sell all its stock holdings?

The story of what happened at Knight Capital Group in 2012 is also interesting. Quoting from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knight_Capital_Group , On August 1, 2012, Knight Capital caused a major stock market disruption leading to a large trading loss for the company. The incident happened after a t...
by firebirdparts
Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You are probably invested in Bitcoin now
Replies: 36
Views: 3003

Re: You are probably invested in Bitcoin now

I am just thinking imagine having to own this and now NKLA. Some guys just can’t get enough of SEC investigators for some reason. I’m sure they dress nicely.
by firebirdparts
Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 8936
Views: 710313

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Market seems to like the fed meeting.
by firebirdparts
Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20240
Views: 2763244

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Does anyone know where all the money that's flowing out of the market during this correction is going? Treasuries have been relatively flat, as has gold. Are investors just moving to large cash positions, perhaps to combat uncertainty around the election? Money doesn't flow out of the market when t...
by firebirdparts
Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Call Options a bad idea?
Replies: 21
Views: 1727

Re: Why are Call Options a bad idea?

I think the fundamental answer has been given; they cost extra and they expire. However, deep in the money calls could be used as a stock substitute within reason. They cost more and are not volatile, so as you’d expect, the risk and reward Is more like stock, and it gets more boring as you go deepe...
by firebirdparts
Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You are probably invested in Bitcoin now
Replies: 36
Views: 3003

Re: You are probably invested in Bitcoin now

When you put it that way, this thread starts looking like an argument for actively managed funds.
by firebirdparts
Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Irrational Exuberance- Is completely ignoring all external signals (p/e) and auto-investing monthly ever a bad idea?
Replies: 54
Views: 3950

Re: Irrational Exuberance- Is completely ignoring all external signals (p/e) and auto-investing monthly ever a bad idea?

P/Es are only relevant when adjusted for underlying interest rates. For all we know 30x may well be the "norm" for decades..... if interest rates are going to stay sub-1%. This is super important, but it seems like it’s not a very popular topic of conversation. To the OPs question, I don’t think it...
by firebirdparts
Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Take AAPL out of rollover 401K?
Replies: 2
Views: 373

Re: Take AAPL out of rollover 401K?

It’s never a mistake to get rich. If you’re in the 32% bracket, just do the best you can. As an index investor I feel like I have enough Apple already. I could see selling it in your situation, but buying it again right now would not appeal to me at all.
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to invest in commodity as a buy&hold investor?
Replies: 15
Views: 1063

Re: How to invest in commodity as a buy&hold investor?

I think it's a mistake to lump commodities into a category. Right now, demand for consumable commodities is down , but business is generally coming back around the world. big projects might not be coming back. We don't really need them, and nobody wants to pay a construction company to build somethi...
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too much S&P 500 index concentration in FAAMGs?
Replies: 67
Views: 4039

Re: Too much S&P 500 index concentration in FAAMGs?

Blue456 wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:32 pm How is it going to affect buy and hold portfolio?
Well, it's easy to predict the past. It affected the portfolio in the past in that you made lots and lots of money holding this stuff. Lots.
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any option traders?
Replies: 57
Views: 6332

Re: Any option traders?

Do you have any recommendations for resources for learning more about options trading? I’m curious from an educational standpoint but don’t want to put any “play” money on the line until I learn the ropes. Thanks My accounts are with Fidelity. They have periodically a series of webinars about "how ...
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 10, 2020 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 8936
Views: 710313

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Here is how much sense the market makes "Jobless Claims came in higher than consensus" almost everything green today. No kne knows nothing...keep marching Makes perfect sense actually, but we aren't allowed to discuss why . It's never the numbers but what they might lead to that matters imho. Let's...
by firebirdparts
Tue Sep 08, 2020 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: refining definition of a bull and bear market
Replies: 10
Views: 543

Re: refining definition of a bull and bear market

I don't see the utility of recognizing that such a thing occurred. maybe there is one. It seems to me just something for semantic arguments on the internet. If you believe in some sort of mythology where identifying bull or bear markets gives you the ability to time the market, then yeah, I could se...
by firebirdparts
Tue Sep 08, 2020 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Bogleheads cope with FOMO? [Fear Of Missing Out]
Replies: 97
Views: 7749

Re: How do Bogleheads cope with FOMO?

phxjcc wrote: Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:42 pm
newyorker wrote: Mon Sep 07, 2020 12:24 pm I didnt and I got burned with AAPL
You young whippersnapper

Bought 1 month’s salary of DEC options.
“Can’t miss”

Bought at 10
sold at 1/16.
You should have held for the VT100 intro press release.
by firebirdparts
Tue Sep 08, 2020 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Bogleheads cope with FOMO? [Fear Of Missing Out]
Replies: 97
Views: 7749

Re: How do Bogleheads cope with FOMO? [Fear Of Missing Out]

Getting older is probably a good strategy, assuming you can learn from experience. Some can, and then some never learn anything ever. I think I have a personal bent that is less susceptible to begin with. I am not very open to that particular fear. I am very interested in avoiding regret, and if you...
by firebirdparts
Tue Sep 08, 2020 6:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are the days of 7% avg index returns over?
Replies: 65
Views: 9567

Re: Are the days of 7% avg index returns over?

In Jerome Powell's latest interview on NPR it was hinted that this may be the case since more and more people are investing. Moving forward would it be more realistic to expect returns of 3-4% on average now? I think even Bogle mentioned something like this in the past where he thought the average ...
by firebirdparts
Fri Sep 04, 2020 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20240
Views: 2763244

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Since the S&P rejected Tesla, it's going to be a very long time waiting for Tuesday for all the Tesla traders. that puts a bit of a downdraft on the whole Nasdaq I think. I guess, though, the Tesla inclusion squeeze has to recur every quarter now for the rest of our lives until they get in. That may...
by firebirdparts
Fri Sep 04, 2020 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Indexes don't search for solutions. People do."
Replies: 17
Views: 2064

Re: "Indexes don't search for solutions. People do."

i remember in one of Jack's last speeches at the boglehead conference he said "look at poor Putnam" and their tiny and shrinking market share. He said he tried to convince them to mutualize.
by firebirdparts
Fri Sep 04, 2020 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 580
Views: 59133

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

Boy, I sure got a whipping today. It only lost the growth back to August 20, but it feels a lot worse.
by firebirdparts
Fri Sep 04, 2020 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dip: Selling and buying
Replies: 18
Views: 2208

Re: Dip: Selling and buying

wouldn't be better if the market is going down -10% -15% to sell at and buying even lower than just holding and riding the dip all the way down? Can someone shed some knowledge. You're talking from the perspective of a person with a time machine. You can't make it "go down more". If you sell, then ...
by firebirdparts
Fri Sep 04, 2020 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should I be investing in a down or downing market for retirement?
Replies: 37
Views: 3144

Re: Why should I be investing in a down or downing market for retirement?

I think it's pretty safe to assume one is closeby Good luck with that Crystal ball stuff. That's not how it's done. You could be 100% right, and say "a crash is coming soon" and be right, but the market may still double before that crash actually comes, and then drop back 30%, and never again be as...
by firebirdparts
Fri Sep 04, 2020 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20240
Views: 2763244

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I went all in on Hedgefundie’s strategy but with TQQQ - last week! Well, was partially in before that. I’m down about 20% so far across all accounts. Figures. Nothing to do now but ride it out. Would you buy TQQQ right now? If not, don't fall for the sunk cost fallacy and sell it. Leveraged ETF's a...
by firebirdparts
Fri Sep 04, 2020 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling SPY options, gains seem too good? Do I misundertand
Replies: 23
Views: 1862

Re: Selling SPY options, gains seem too good? Do I misundertand

The fact you thought a 190 put, in any tenor, was 155 bid shows you have no business being anywhere near options. Save your money and go to Las Vegas. FWIW, you can use them as part of a diagonal spread. It wouldn't be dumb at all to buy a Spy LEAP $150 in the money. But I realize the OP wasn't try...
by firebirdparts
Fri Sep 04, 2020 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling SPY options, gains seem too good? Do I misundertand
Replies: 23
Views: 1862

Re: Selling SPY options, gains seem too good? Do I misundertand

So basically I can either buy SPY for 345.39 x 100 shares at 34,539 and hope it appreciates or I can get a guaranteed 15,578 return as long as I am willing to buy SPY if it drops at a price of 190? Dude, take a step back. Holy cow. There's no free money. There is, however, risk and choice. If you b...
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 03, 2020 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20240
Views: 2763244

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Usually i thought Gold goes up when stocks go down?? I don't really believe in thinking you know what gold is going to do. I wouldn't dare. It has always been valuable because people like it. I think it's very likely that it'll continue to be liked, and somebody will probably give you something of ...
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 03, 2020 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20240
Views: 2763244

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

flyingaway wrote: Thu Sep 03, 2020 11:42 am Bonds are up, as expected.
Yep. Overall, I think I may be in danger of losing as much money today as I made yesterday. I guess we'll find out at 4 o'clock.
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 580
Views: 59133

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

MindBogler wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 1:10 pm How are you all accounting for the percentage of bonds / stocks that PSLDX contributes as a component in your overall asset allocation?
100% stock.

Buy a big pile of it and watch it move a while, and you'll agree.
by firebirdparts
Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 8936
Views: 710313

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

lostdog wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:14 pm Melt up at the end today?
Bigly