Search found 1350 matches

by firebirdparts
Sun May 24, 2020 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth + Time vs Pretax + tax
Replies: 37
Views: 1712

Re: Roth + Time vs Pretax + tax

I disagree with those that that categorically say time in not important. It can be for anyone married. You see, more than likely one day, the original owner or the subsequent owner will be filing as single and that survivor's tax rate will likely increase with that event, impacting the tax bill for...
by firebirdparts
Sun May 24, 2020 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Businesses that are permanently destroyed due to COVID?
Replies: 34
Views: 2511

Re: Businesses that are permanently destroyed due to COVID

I don’t see it. I think the new normal will mostly be a riskier version of the old normal. Some industries could take a permanent reduction in size, like air travel. That is as far as I can go.
by firebirdparts
Sat May 23, 2020 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Examples of why NOT to hold individual stocks
Replies: 40
Views: 3411

Re: Examples of why NOT to hold individual stocks

youngpleb wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 5:16 pm
You can't just pick a random stock that tanked and use it as an example to not hold single stocks...

Yes you can. That is absolutely something you can do. Act accordingly.
by firebirdparts
Fri May 22, 2020 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 312
Views: 15718

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

I speculate on them all the time. With leverage, even. If I bought individual long term bonds and kept them, sure, I could escape the speculating. But I don't want to. How is this a fascinating argument? It seems like you couldn't possibly misunderstand any of this. Are you just pretending to argue?
by firebirdparts
Fri May 22, 2020 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth + Time vs Pretax + tax
Replies: 37
Views: 1712

Re: Roth + Time vs Pretax + tax

In theory, if you are 18 and have lower taxes in the future a Roth still might be worth it, because the sheer amount of time and compounding. Time doesn't come into it; If you have $10 and you put that in a pretax IRA, you compare that to paying $2 in taxes and putting $8 in a Roth. Let's say it qu...
by firebirdparts
Fri May 22, 2020 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 144
Views: 6559

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosphy

Taleb has become a parody of himself, basically. Fame doesn't agree with everybody. He may not have been all that sane to start with.

Now that the asteroid has actually hit, he may be mad that nobody cares enough. Who knows.
by firebirdparts
Fri May 22, 2020 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4902
Views: 422802

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I don't get how your explanation contradicts mine, so what is incorrect that i said? A bonds long-term gain can be quoted by the yield to maturity, which is a combination of coupon payments + capital gain/loss when the principal is repaid. Clearly, bonds today have much lower YTM than 20 years ago....
by firebirdparts
Thu May 21, 2020 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5577
Views: 478089

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Not a lot of favorable math when it comes to holding cash. I have a lot of it (see here: Portfoliocharts on cash ). I think it's okay to say I have given up a little upside for a little protection.

To say you give up a little upside and get a lot of protection is not really right.
by firebirdparts
Thu May 21, 2020 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.
Replies: 83
Views: 3437

Re: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.

I do have thoughts about these questions, but I don't believe that there is a single answer. As you note, much of it is subjective. Traditional Boglehead thought is probably that the answer to #2 is yes. But I think that certain strategies can be both efficient and resilient. I sometimes think abou...
by firebirdparts
Thu May 21, 2020 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in International Stocks
Replies: 26
Views: 2128

Re: Investing in International Stocks

tibbitts wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 10:13 am
But I don't understand the point - what does "start" with Canada or any of the other ones mean? Start what?
I am thinking somebody should point out there are 10,000 arguments about global investment that already occurred.
by firebirdparts
Thu May 21, 2020 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63008

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

DB2 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 3:27 pm


By the way, "nobody knows nothing" is a self-contradiction. If nobody knows nothing, then how does anyone using that statement know enough to say that?
you're going to be in the running for internet semantic argument award of the year.
by firebirdparts
Wed May 20, 2020 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the longest period for stock market to lose money?
Replies: 62
Views: 11690

Re: What is the longest period for stock market to lose money?

Real net return, after fees, taxes, & inflation, from your index fund investment, at the time you decide to cash out, is what really matters, I would think? Be careful how you get into that question in an environment like this. You must pick the context, and there will always be people who will att...
by firebirdparts
Wed May 20, 2020 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ditch 401K for Roth to reduce taxation of SS Benefits
Replies: 18
Views: 1484

Re: Ditch 401K for Roth to reduce taxation of SS Benefits

The issues are too personal, evidently, for somebody to publish some little calculator and say "here it is". The first piece of information you'd need is your spend rate in retirement. If you retire early, then the ACA stipend structure would effect you before SS. There is no predicting what the rul...
by firebirdparts
Wed May 20, 2020 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?
Replies: 213
Views: 9986

Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

I still wouldn't put my net worth in it. But probably half of the engineers I know here in Silicon Valley have a significant stake in it and several have the majority of their net worth in it. This is just how it became unstable, as I'm sure you already know. It's become a speculative collectible, ...
by firebirdparts
Wed May 20, 2020 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The economy is in free fall. So why isn't the stock market?"
Replies: 153
Views: 15194

Re: "The economy is in free fall. So why isn't the stock market?"

it appears that today the market is regretting its unfortunate incident at 3 o'clock yesterday.
by firebirdparts
Tue May 19, 2020 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The economy is in free fall. So why isn't the stock market?"
Replies: 153
Views: 15194

Re: "The economy is in free fall. So why isn't the stock market?"

What in the world happened at 3 o' clock today?

I mentioned to my wife just this morning I wonder what the process was that brought us to this version of Jerome Powell. Like when did he become convinced of MMT and why.
by firebirdparts
Tue May 19, 2020 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: "Vintage year" effect of graduating into a recession
Replies: 20
Views: 1960

Re: NYT: "Vintage year" effect of graduating into a recession

I think (from my own experience) that door swings both ways. The subsequent economic recovery and growth create outsize opportunity, and at least in my line of work there is a lot of demand for people with 2 or 3 years of experience that are evaluatable (a known quantity) and capable of taking on a ...
by firebirdparts
Tue May 19, 2020 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New normal in the markets
Replies: 10
Views: 1342

Re: New normal in the markets

Sadly, stocks don't accumulate any money. If you buy 3 trillion worth of stocks, the 3 trillion just goes right through to the seller, and then the sellers have to do something with 3 trillion. There's no "inventory" of money in stocks. Measures like "book value" as much as everybody hates it, are a...
by firebirdparts
Tue May 19, 2020 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63008

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

I recognize, especially after 2008, that I don't know the extent of the house of cards until it falls. The die was already cast in 2008, but it was a secret from most of us. I am way too ignorant of professional trading operations to know what among those people could blow up this time. So in this c...
by firebirdparts
Tue May 19, 2020 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: debt-to-GDP ratio?
Replies: 13
Views: 887

Re: debt-to-GDP ratio?

Hi guys, Do you know how to read debt-to-GDP ratio? If the debt is government debt and the GDP is the country's GDP wouldn't it be a wrong comparison? Comparing the government's debt to country's GDP ratio? I guess you could argue it depends on the form of government. All "value" is created by peop...
by firebirdparts
Tue May 19, 2020 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't investors hedge to the upside?
Replies: 14
Views: 969

Re: Why don't investors hedge to the upside?

tvubpwcisla wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 8:34 pm
why don't investor hedge to the upside and buy Calls?
:confused
Who said they didn't?
by firebirdparts
Mon May 18, 2020 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5577
Views: 478089

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

NYSE right now:
Image
by firebirdparts
Mon May 18, 2020 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5577
Views: 478089

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

This is big! This is like that time the gold shipment came through Mayberry.
by firebirdparts
Mon May 18, 2020 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend vs Total Return question
Replies: 66
Views: 2732

Re: Dividend vs Total Return question

One question and I do not want to start the usual back and forth about this. Good thinking. The real answer, as always, is "it depends". You should start this experiment in the past, and then see how it turned out yourself in the past. Every investment is different; you have to pick two. You can ad...
by firebirdparts
Sat May 16, 2020 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4902
Views: 422802

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

In trying to calculate it myself, I was a bit surprised how much cash is involved: S&P 500 drops -10%, UPRO drops -30%, requiring +20% cash added to UPRO until recovery (and then removing the 20% cash) S&P 500 drops -20%, UPRO drops -60%, requiring +40% cash loaned to UPRO until recovery This is cl...
by firebirdparts
Sat May 16, 2020 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?
Replies: 213
Views: 9986

Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

In a disaster, maybe the pre-existence of cardless digital transactions in fiat currencies would make it easier for people to transition towards bitcoin. But in normal times, I think the existence of cardless digital transactions in fiat currencies would make it harder (less incentive) for people t...
by firebirdparts
Fri May 15, 2020 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fallacy of hedging stock market investments
Replies: 16
Views: 1362

Re: The fallacy of hedging stock market investments

I wager there are a lot of people that are market timing, but doing some in an intelligent manner using hedging techniques. For example, if someone has $1M in equity with $750M in gains and wants to protect against near-term downside risk, I think the decision to use an options strategy is quite in...
by firebirdparts
Fri May 15, 2020 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Healthcare post COVID-19
Replies: 57
Views: 5259

Re: Healthcare post COVID-19

I'm hoping Amazon or another company with the means breaks into the health insurance game. If they came out with something like a $200 a month $3000 deductible plan that was as easy to purchase as anything else online, wouldn't this be a viable option for a lot of people? And if they were successfu...
by firebirdparts
Fri May 15, 2020 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626167

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Stocks and bonds going down together, great. However, it is still early, ha ha. Have to see what the plunge protection team brings after lunch.
by firebirdparts
Fri May 15, 2020 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?
Replies: 155
Views: 20821

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Saw an article today about how his era is over. But in terms of performance, I think 10 or 15 years is enough that we should all be able to understand that they can't do it any more. It's been a long time since they actually did anything good. It's not that they're no good, it's just the quality of ...
by firebirdparts
Fri May 15, 2020 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the point of TLH when you already have booked losses?
Replies: 35
Views: 2075

Re: What's the point of TLH when you already have booked losses?

I guess it depends. If you are the kind of person to have 100k capital gains sometime in the reasonable future, then you could imagine using that up. Are you that kind of person?
by firebirdparts
Thu May 14, 2020 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 186
Views: 15376

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

I just treat it like the S&P500. However much large cap blend (also = total US) you want just use PSLDX for that.
by firebirdparts
Thu May 14, 2020 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?
Replies: 213
Views: 9986

Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Aren’t things like collectibles, art, wine, jewelry also require a greater fool to come along as there are no dividends, interest or rent? And since bitcoin is all over the world with billions of people, there is no end in sight for the supply of fools. of course. It's important to just call it wha...
by firebirdparts
Thu May 14, 2020 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will "work from home" destroy the commercial real estate market?
Replies: 169
Views: 12994

Re: Will "work from home" destroy the commercial real estate market?

I don’t agree that the work from home metrics were built in. The Wall Street Journal had an article just today on the ramped up productivity resulting from stay at home work and there was a similar article today on the major banks based in Manhattan on how they would be radically reducing their maj...
by firebirdparts
Thu May 14, 2020 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will "work from home" destroy the commercial real estate market?
Replies: 169
Views: 12994

Re: Will "work from home" destroy the commercial real estate market?

I'm not interested in the urinating contest, but I did notice the comment on low cubicles. I see possibly an application for sneezeguards on all the world's low cubicles. I imagine if they're not modified they'll just replace them with the higher cubicles that really aren't that different. I work in...
by firebirdparts
Thu May 14, 2020 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626167

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Once again, indices are recovering from a low open. Bonds are up big today, but perhaps that'll get fixed too.
by firebirdparts
Wed May 13, 2020 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 186
Views: 15376

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

Well, we've been over this. It's an actively managed bond portfolio. You can approximate it that part of it with BLV using -100 CASHX and that's not bad. or even more precisely, 35% UPRO 20% TMF 45% BLV if you actually wanted to "copy" PSLDX, i think it raises two questions: 1. What are trying to do...
by firebirdparts
Wed May 13, 2020 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage payment instead of bonds: how?
Replies: 39
Views: 2367

Re: Mortgage payment instead of bonds: how?

I know this is not helpful, but I paid the mortgage off when I was younger, and I bought bonds when I was older. This is as close to life cycle investing as I ever got. To me, it depends a whole lot on your total picture, and that was my picture. I am 54 now, and if I had 1% bonds and a 1.01% mortga...
by firebirdparts
Wed May 13, 2020 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone considering Commodity futures?
Replies: 16
Views: 689

Re: Anyone considering Commodity futures?

czeckers wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 5:02 am


However, do we realistically expect this to continue indefinitely?
I do. The entire practice of engineering is working day and night to make commodities cheaper. Right now is the most oversupplied world ever. If somebody told me 30 years ago we’d be here, I wouldn’t have believed it.
by firebirdparts
Tue May 12, 2020 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 186
Views: 15376

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

I think there's been nothing matching its performance.
by firebirdparts
Tue May 12, 2020 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?
Replies: 213
Views: 9986

Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

How does this fictional Indian software developer redeem his $250k of Bitcoin into Rupees? You know, in case he actually wants to buy anything in India. I'm my opinion, Bitcoin is an elegant solution to a real world problem that doesn't actually exist. If you're worried about the devaluation of you...
by firebirdparts
Tue May 12, 2020 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now is the time to buy corporate bonds.
Replies: 19
Views: 2218

Re: Now is the time to buy corporate bonds.

yeah, it seems like it would be too late now, and also too early. They suffered quite a lot in March.
by firebirdparts
Mon May 11, 2020 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Going by PORTFOLIO VISUALIZER Wellesley Income fund lasted 35 years with a 9% withdrawal could this be right?
Replies: 32
Views: 2685

Re: Going by PORTFOLIO VISUALIZER Wellesley Income fund lasted 35 years with a 9% withdrawal could this be right?

How do you know that? It’s pretty easy. Are you sure you don’t know the drivers for all that payoff? I know the economy itself is esoteric but bonds are dead simple. One thing is for sure; if you think you can do that again, it would be really dumb to depend on it. Better to plan a least a little c...
by firebirdparts
Mon May 11, 2020 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626167

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Didn't they used to talk about the stock market really being controlled by the sales of Popsicles in St. Louis or something? I know 40 or 50 years ago there was some key correlation something to do with that. Maybe that was in some famous statistics text. Anyway, stocks are up again.
by firebirdparts
Mon May 11, 2020 2:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is this a wash sale?
Replies: 7
Views: 503

Re: Is this a wash sale?

No, that's taking a loss. Wash sales is the government calling out a fake loss. If you sell, that, you genuinely lost the money.

put another way, they don't care how fast you lose the money.
by firebirdparts
Mon May 11, 2020 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?
Replies: 213
Views: 9986

Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

As someone who owns a little bit of both bitcoin and gold, the responses in this thread are very reassuring. It seems that most mainstream investors are pricing the possibility of hyper-inflation or some sort of collapse of the monetary system at essentially 0. Definitely. Now obviously we're not t...
by firebirdparts
Mon May 11, 2020 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?
Replies: 213
Views: 9986

Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

indexlover wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 12:35 pm
Thoughts ?
Just replace "bitcoin" with "beany babies" and it doesn't change a thing.
by firebirdparts
Mon May 11, 2020 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can't believe how ridiculously expensive Shopify is [Stock]
Replies: 65
Views: 4362

Re: Can't believe how ridiculously expensive Shopify is [Stock]

Interesting. The virus has helped these folks, but long term, a lot of them would have strong growth anyway.
by firebirdparts
Mon May 11, 2020 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil Crash Busted Broker’s Computers and Inflicted Big Losses-At midnight, Shah got the devastating news: he owed Intera
Replies: 8
Views: 1849

Re: Oil Crash Busted Broker’s Computers and Inflicted Big Losses-At midnight, Shah got the devastating news: he owed Int

It's been fun to watch, but if I was buying an investment, I would blithely assume that I wouldn't have to sell it for a negative number. I wouldn't really expect that. Glad it was somebody else having the pleasure of discovering that.