Search found 305 matches

by firebirdparts
Thu Nov 21, 2019 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fact or fiction? Having at least some bonds/cash, to rebalance vs 100% equities.
Replies: 13
Views: 937

Re: Fact or fiction? Having at least some bonds/cash, to rebalance vs 100% equities.

Like everything in portfolio visualizer, you can reach either conclusion through choice of start and end dates. So it’s really useful to think about what the dates really are telling you.
by firebirdparts
Thu Nov 21, 2019 6:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do index funds magnify bubbles and recessions?
Replies: 16
Views: 1354

Re: Do index funds magnify bubbles and recessions?

In my opinion, the big fallacy is believing that actively managed funds would stop the bubble from forming if people just poured in the same money to them instead. In my opinion that is ridiculous. If some big number of funds collected loads of money and practiced tactical asset allocation, that is ...
by firebirdparts
Wed Nov 20, 2019 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 1502
Views: 109063

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

They just meant TMF, had it existed, would have a bad patch about when you’d expect. The HFEAdventure portfolio does not do well in the 1970s especially.
by firebirdparts
Wed Nov 20, 2019 5:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: market went down in 2018, so why do people forget that
Replies: 48
Views: 4908

Re: market went down in 2018, so why do people forget that

But it seems like people talk about a long bull market. “People” believe in a recognizable business cycle. They are watching for that. You don’t have to agree with them. They probably won’t stop looking for it. The “C” in CAPE for example stands for it. Will monetary policy become so brilliant that...
by firebirdparts
Tue Nov 19, 2019 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gates' backed Heliogen may revolutionize energy industry
Replies: 59
Views: 4697

Re: Bill Gates' backed Heliogen may revolutionize energy industry

gmc4h232 wrote:
Tue Nov 19, 2019 3:50 pm
Pretty sure Archimedes already invented this over 2,000 years ago....
Greek fire.... back then you had to use actual intelligence because they didn’t have the artificial kind.
by firebirdparts
Tue Nov 19, 2019 5:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1993
Views: 208642

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Futures up again....
by firebirdparts
Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run
Replies: 76
Views: 6082

Re: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

To the question about previous generations, I may be really strange, but at a high income level I thought it was obvious you’d have to decide what to do with your life. I know you can spend any amount but it’s pretty dumb. I graduated college in 1988 and I had every intention of being financially in...
by firebirdparts
Sun Nov 17, 2019 6:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do you regret rebalancing over the last few years?
Replies: 66
Views: 5384

Re: Do you regret rebalancing over the last few years?

JoeRetire wrote:
Sun Nov 17, 2019 1:15 pm

Bingo!

There's a term for this logical fallacy, but I can seem to remember it.
Is it post hoc ergo propter hoc?
by firebirdparts
Fri Nov 15, 2019 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run
Replies: 76
Views: 6082

Re: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

I don’t think they have that kind of money. From early in my accumulation years, there has always been talk of how USA demographics (“the” baby boomers) would impact investments and I think that is a much bigger deal. If significant numbers of first-worlders begin to live frugally, you’ll probably s...
by firebirdparts
Fri Nov 15, 2019 4:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Entertainment fund
Replies: 10
Views: 676

Re: Entertainment fund

It might be fun to build a bond ladder and then have a rule that when the bond matures, you have to blow all the money. I am taking you at face value here.
by firebirdparts
Fri Nov 15, 2019 4:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 funds and 3% withdraw rate
Replies: 22
Views: 1108

Re: 3 funds and 3% withdraw rate

You've done well. I am no expert on investing, so take this with a grain of salt. Using SPYD as a core holding is a little offbeat for the posters here. I would do it, and in fact I already hold a dividend specialty fund while I am still working (I have 6 or so funds instead of 3). Most of my money ...
by firebirdparts
Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaws with 4% Rule?
Replies: 33
Views: 3881

Re: Flaws with 4% Rule?

Can Bogleheads help distill this paper down to it's elements and then provide a reaction to it? Here's my honest effort. It's a strange article. It's embarrassing. The article is based on Monte Carlo simulations of a 30 year retirement, and perhaps that part of it may be reasonable. It has two glar...
by firebirdparts
Thu Nov 14, 2019 3:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand Owl Rock's 7% return
Replies: 16
Views: 1578

Re: Help me understand Owl Rock's 7% return

Now you've also learned where people can get money at lower than the LIBOR rate. They can get it from your buddy. PS full disclosure, I own more than one bond fund and for instance I hold a fidelity "high yield" bond fund SPHIX. The 30 day yield is about 5%. Most of the debt is rated B and BB. 15% o...
by firebirdparts
Thu Nov 14, 2019 3:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich people are hoarding cash
Replies: 153
Views: 23243

Re: Rich people are hoarding cash

I don't think it's too productive to get into "most people do this" and "very few people will do that" kind of discussion. Who knows what people do. I used to know somebody that hoards cash. The news item attached is probably pointless, but if it has any validity, it would be to say that some people...
by firebirdparts
Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard and basketball
Replies: 14
Views: 1575

Re: Vanguard and basketball

Same here. College football is the only commercials TV I ever watch. there are a lot of annuity commercials this year.
by firebirdparts
Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich people are hoarding cash
Replies: 153
Views: 23243

Re: Rich people are hoarding cash

I am certainly expecting that. More than one, really.
by firebirdparts
Tue Nov 12, 2019 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaws with 4% Rule?
Replies: 33
Views: 3881

Re: Flaws with 4% Rule?

Is this not totally wrong? An investor can guarantee a real dollar every year for thirty years by purchasing a series of zero-coupon, risk-free bonds. The cost of this investment is the sum of the discounted prices $1/(1.02) + $1/(1.02)squared + ... + $1/(1.02)to the 30th power , which amounts to a ...
by firebirdparts
Tue Nov 12, 2019 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaws with 4% Rule?
Replies: 33
Views: 3881

Re: Flaws with 4% Rule?

I believe the general point to be that because the stock market is volatile, the idea of producing a non-volatile year-of-over year income stream from it is inefficient. I would have called it brilliant rather than inefficient. The study was the product of people trying to get exactly what they all...
by firebirdparts
Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich people are hoarding cash
Replies: 153
Views: 23243

Re: Rich people are hoarding cash

I am predicting a variety of upward and downward results at different times.
by firebirdparts
Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retired: Do you withdraw from investments or cash ?
Replies: 74
Views: 9878

Re: Retired: Do you withdraw from investments or cash ?

Well, timing is a big deal for rebalancing. It may be pure luck, but you have every possibility of a different result if you rebalance yourself.
by firebirdparts
Tue Nov 12, 2019 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retired: Do you withdraw from investments or cash ?
Replies: 74
Views: 9878

Re: Retired: Do you withdraw from investments or cash ?

An interesting question could be, for those with a multi year cash buffer, have you thought about written rules for spending it down? Have you always assumed that Fateful day would be obvious?
by firebirdparts
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dilemma: After-tax 401K to Roth IRA, limited allocation for all 401K "types".
Replies: 18
Views: 984

Re: Dilemma: After-tax 401K to Roth IRA, limited allocation for all 401K "types".

Same here. Fido treats the money as one big pile that has taxability measured in percents.
by firebirdparts
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Backdoor Roth Gone Wrong
Replies: 12
Views: 1240

Re: Backdoor Roth Gone Wrong

I made this same mistake in 2018 and I did not see any way to yank it back. I am below the max in 2019 so for me the process of making the sausage will push my error on through. I don’t d my own taxes, probably a mistake in my situation
by firebirdparts
Sun Nov 10, 2019 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...
Replies: 101
Views: 6154

Re: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...

Gambling. Sports betting is huge these days and people even do it on fantasy teams.
by firebirdparts
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond yield too low, how about high yield stock?
Replies: 24
Views: 1801

Re: Bond yield too low, how about high yield stock?

Human beings set the price of stocks. High yield stocks are high yield because nobody wants to own them at a higher price. They vary in what's wrong with them, but just be sure there is something wrong with each of them compared to a "glamour" stock. So there's no free lunch, but there could be adeq...
by firebirdparts
Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 325
Views: 34876

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

Oh, can you provide any actual data to substantiate? For a slight bit of extra info, In order to make mutual funds exchange tradable, they had to give somebody the job of pricing the ETF moment by moment. They can't just demand prices like they do on a mutual fund, so this person has to correct the...
by firebirdparts
Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robinhood, Heading for a Trainwreck?
Replies: 41
Views: 5425

Re: Robinhood, Heading for a Trainwreck?

Good advice here (Matt Levine):
... you should not underestimate the importance, in trading generally, of impressing people with your wit and boldness.
by firebirdparts
Tue Nov 05, 2019 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend investing vs. index investing
Replies: 30
Views: 2191

Re: Dividend investing vs. index investing

Momus wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 4:40 pm

Wow...
Now if we could only do that in the future.
by firebirdparts
Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two competing investing philosophies: buy and hold vs. move to indexing
Replies: 7
Views: 586

Re: Two competing investing philosophies: buy and hold vs. move to indexing

The fees on 2% of your portfolio are not going to matter, nor is the return. It just doesn't matter. Using my actual behavior as an indicator, I think my investments with higher fees would start to creep me out at about 20%. This is all just a personal choice.
by firebirdparts
Tue Nov 05, 2019 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you invest in Real Estate ? Why ?
Replies: 141
Views: 18988

Re: Do you invest in Real Estate ? Why ?

I do not. I have a lot of things that I want to do, and so I try to avoid the hassles of Real Estate in "real life". My money is almost all in a 401k, and so for most of my work history, we really did not have REITs to invest in. By the time that became available, it was kind of too late for me. I w...
by firebirdparts
Tue Nov 05, 2019 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend investing vs. index investing
Replies: 30
Views: 2191

Re: Dividend investing vs. index investing

Investing is better than not investing. That is the important thing by a mile. There are many crazy and stupid people who take an interest in investments, and even they are still correct some of the time. This is certainly an argument for a balanced portfolio of index investments. On the other hand,...
by firebirdparts
Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 206
Views: 54167

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

Have you looked at this? I think (correct me if I'm wrong) this only considers data since 1970. https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/portfolio-matrix/ You can just type in a portfolio (like in this case the All Seasons) and compare it, since it wasn't included in the list. There are no tips. Hmm. I...
by firebirdparts
Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you reconcile these two opposing views
Replies: 42
Views: 3682

Re: How do you reconcile these two opposing views

pkcrafter wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:28 pm
What have we learned?

Paul
Nobody knows nothing.
by firebirdparts
Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Duration Help
Replies: 14
Views: 806

Re: Stock Duration Help

Stock dividends work more on an implied social contract, rather than the explicit contract of bonds. If you guess the future dividends and the future price of the stock, then you can decide what an interest rate change does to the value you personally would put on a stock. It would be really imprope...
by firebirdparts
Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beating the market using the benchmark that works for you
Replies: 8
Views: 707

Re: Beating the market using the benchmark that works for you

This is kind of like the greater fool theory. If your performance is terrible enough, the only benchmark available that is worse than you could be that one they call "average investor". You can claim any performance you want for "average investor". Nobody's got the data. Look for examples of this in...
by firebirdparts
Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1993
Views: 208642

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Me, later this winter

Image
by firebirdparts
Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you reconcile these two opposing views
Replies: 42
Views: 3682

Re: How do you reconcile these two opposing views

Two keys. When someone says the EMH means you can’t do this or you must do that, ignore that. The second key is to believe nobody knows nothing. I am totally a fundamentalist and so I never take a philosophical view about the EMH. It is what it is and no more. There is nothing to reconcile for me be...
by firebirdparts
Sat Nov 02, 2019 10:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Worried I am getting addicted to individual stocks.
Replies: 113
Views: 7438

Re: Worried I am getting addicted to individual stocks.

For me it was self correcting. I lost all the money.
by firebirdparts
Sat Nov 02, 2019 3:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Burry proves to be right wouldn't this method be a pretty easy solution to circumvent problem he is describing?
Replies: 4
Views: 1117

Re: If Burry proves to be right wouldn't this method be a pretty easy solution to circumvent problem he is describing?

Burry is wrong. That is the important thing. Stock prices go up and down, and if you own TSM, it will go up and down. The big important factor is People will say “I’d like to have a lower stock allocation” and down it goes. Later they say “that seems low enough” and you go back up. Index investing o...
by firebirdparts
Fri Nov 01, 2019 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps Finally Getting Some Respect
Replies: 79
Views: 12319

Re: Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps Finally Getting Some Respect

I noticed in the other thread that Tomcat holds "Completion index" without the SP500.
by firebirdparts
Fri Nov 01, 2019 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Curious financial advisor claim . . .
Replies: 30
Views: 4659

Re: Curious financial advisor claim . . .

If we are believing any of this, it is interesting to note that we are currently in a period of mega cap overperformance. So you can ignore that, but if you decide to act accordingly, then you have to decide between "mean reversion" and "different this time".
by firebirdparts
Fri Nov 01, 2019 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps Finally Getting Some Respect
Replies: 79
Views: 12319

Re: Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps Finally Getting Some Respect

Have any of you midcap lovers formed an opinion of the down jones US completion stock index? I can get FSMAX in my 401k. They reformulate our options and I lost what I was holding. For a mid-cap lover this seems like an okay way to go.
by firebirdparts
Fri Nov 01, 2019 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50 Year US Treasury Bond - who is taker?
Replies: 29
Views: 2681

Re: 50 Year US Treasury Bond - who is taker?

DonIce wrote:
Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:31 pm
Well, presumably you could also make an ETF of 40-50 year STRIPS?
Is that any different from EDV? I am thinking it's not. I think EDV would just happily buy them. I admit I am a little fuzzy on the details of how they do business.
by firebirdparts
Fri Nov 01, 2019 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50 Year US Treasury Bond - who is taker?
Replies: 29
Views: 2681

Re: 50 Year US Treasury Bond - who is taker?

I would be tempted at above 5%. I am over 50 so.......
by firebirdparts
Wed Oct 30, 2019 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Charles Schwab et al. drop commissions to zero, can we build our own index funds?
Replies: 68
Views: 7333

Re: If Charles Schwab et al. drop commissions to zero, can we build our own index funds?

I figure that is why they say "tracks the performance of" instead of "owns." You wouldn't want to waste too much effort. I would think even a fund worth $100 billion wouldn't bother to buy or sell the microcaps too often or too exactly. I personally don't have a vision for a modest number of stocks ...
by firebirdparts
Wed Oct 30, 2019 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual bonds with big gains
Replies: 14
Views: 1184

Re: Individual bonds with big gains

Well, if you do sell the bonds, I hope you didn't sell yesterday.
by firebirdparts
Tue Oct 29, 2019 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any interest in concise guide to HEDGEFUNDIE 3x Leveraged ETF Excellent Adventure?
Replies: 91
Views: 5304

Re: Any interest in concise guide to HEDGEFUNDIE 3x Leveraged ETF Excellent Adventure?

It sounds like, in this thread at least, there is no interest in a concise guide to Hedfundie's 3X leveraged ETF excellent adventure.
by firebirdparts
Tue Oct 29, 2019 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1993
Views: 208642

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Well, you don't win a prize for arguing on the internet. When I look at S&P 500 10 year charts, nominal total return, I keep seeing basically the stocks quadrupled, just based on the statistics of the eye. It varies a little as the 10 year window moved. I went month-to-month in portfoliovisualizer a...