Search found 600 matches

by rossington
Sun May 31, 2020 1:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do you keep track your investments?
Replies: 40
Views: 2070

Re: How do you keep track your investments?

Microsoft Excel "Investment Tracker" template. Updates in real time and is very flexible to use.
by rossington
Sun May 31, 2020 1:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Favorite initial investor Vanguard mutual index fund; VTSAX
Replies: 34
Views: 2191

Re: Favorite initial investor Vanguard mutual index fund; VTSAX

Just curious about investors favorite initial and go to index fund!! Online search reveals VTSAX as the winner at least as per the assets. Please share thoughts and educate a newbie. "Vanguard Total Stock Market Admiral (VTSAX, $79.09) is the biggest, and some say the best, of all the Vanguard fund...
by rossington
Sat May 30, 2020 3:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Recommednations for long term fund?
Replies: 10
Views: 778

Re: Recommednations for long term fund?

I am 65 years old retired (married). 0 debt, mortage paid off, cars paid off. My income stream of SS, pension, etc. cover my month to month expenses. Have IRA with Fidelity which I have not yet touched. Have enough cash in savings/checking to get me through any medical emergencies, new car needs, e...
by rossington
Thu May 28, 2020 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are 10-20 year treasuries a poor investment now?
Replies: 26
Views: 1615

Re: Why are 10-20 year treasuries a poor investment now?

I am just trying to wrap my head around this. Given that long term treasuries are essentially guaranteed by US government, wouldn't it be wise to buy a large number shares while they are down and beat up and then just wait 10-15 years to turn a nice profit? They are not "down". The price is very hi...
by rossington
Wed May 27, 2020 5:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sold Stocks to Reduce Portfolio Risk
Replies: 23
Views: 1861

Re: Sold Stocks to Reduce Portfolio Risk

what is your AA now ?? The total is about 55% stocks/45% bonds and cash including 401(k), Roth IRA, HSA, taxable investments and emergency funds. If you are going to fully retire make sure that you can handle the NEXT crash(es) down the road. You have a long way to go with no idea of what will actu...
by rossington
Wed May 27, 2020 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do I invest for my retired mom?
Replies: 16
Views: 1198

Re: How do I invest for my retired mom?

She has no money. She should go back to work. ^^^ She needs to go back to work and....could she possibly move in with you, or is that out of the question? Can she split the rent she is paying with someone else she would be comfortable with? Are her medical expenses covered by Medicare or Medicaid?
by rossington
Wed May 27, 2020 1:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different approach to asset allocation
Replies: 1491
Views: 707805

Re: A different approach to asset allocation

Of course good strategies can experience bad results. MT's strategy was not a good strategy. It was built off leverage that put him deep in the hole - fatally flawed from the beginning. Contrast that with my leveraged Excellent Adventure - I can't lose more than what I put in. But he put it all in....
by rossington
Tue May 26, 2020 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?
Replies: 93
Views: 4598

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

The math shows that one doesn't gain much from timing the market in most instances. Suppose the portfolio is 60/40 and one decides to move 10% of the portfolio to change to 70/30. That is, one would have to exchange 25% of one's fixed income into equities. That's already a big deal, but let's say i...
by rossington
Tue May 26, 2020 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?
Replies: 93
Views: 4598

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

The math shows that one doesn't gain much from timing the market in most instances. Suppose the portfolio is 60/40 and one decides to move 10% of the portfolio to change to 70/30. That is, one would have to exchange 25% of one's fixed income into equities. You would only have to sell 5% of your por...
by rossington
Tue May 26, 2020 2:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?
Replies: 93
Views: 4598

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

I see there is a thread here inquiring whether anyone has screwed up trying to time the market. I would like to ask the opposite question, but I prefer the term “valuation driven capital redeployment”. “Market timing” is such a negative sounding term. Between March 25 and March 27 I sold all of my ...
by rossington
Mon May 25, 2020 3:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Statistics for Inflation, Bonds and Stocks
Replies: 5
Views: 683

Re: Historical Statistics for Inflation, Bonds and Stocks

Was there really any equity risk long term in this time period?
100% S&P 500 would have paid off handsomely for an investor well suited to handle the 8 volatile periods out of the 43 years.
But for those with less tolerance an allocation to TBM would certainly have helped them to SWAN.
by rossington
Mon May 25, 2020 2:33 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: MEMORIAL DAY
Replies: 35
Views: 2774

Re: MEMORIAL DAY

God Bless you Taylor and all of your Brothers who fought and payed the ultimate sacrifice and those who were fortunate enough to return home to a safer and more secure world because of your combined valiant efforts. We remember and salute all of our Veterans past and present today and everyday. When...
by rossington
Sun May 24, 2020 3:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does larger portfolio make one more or less risk tolerant
Replies: 25
Views: 1967

Re: Does larger portfolio make one more or less risk tolerant

As one can tell from the sampling of posts above, it depends on the individual. The infinite psychology of investing NEVER changes.
by rossington
Sat May 16, 2020 1:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 17947

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

About the only rational return based reason to hold long term bonds is you think long term rates will go negative. Otherwise the return is so low it doesn't seem worth it. It's also rational to hold long-term bonds if you're a long-term investor who wants to minimize interest rate risk. Or you thin...
by rossington
Sat May 16, 2020 1:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Expected Return" ?
Replies: 44
Views: 2642

Re: "Expected Return" ?

It should be obvious that investors do indeed pick investments according to the return they expect to get (in some vague partly mathematical sense). What is the return you expect to get from US equities? What is the expected value of the probability distribution the return of US equities over the n...
by rossington
Mon May 11, 2020 2:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond fund yields
Replies: 12
Views: 1259

Re: Bond fund yields

It is apparent that Google's yield data lags current real data significantly. Also: As David Jay posted upthread: Future yield will come down (below SEC yield, which accurately represents the current bonds in the portfolio) because as bonds mature they will be replaced with lower interest rate bonds...
by rossington
Tue May 05, 2020 1:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All my friends are outperforming index funds
Replies: 122
Views: 11147

Re: All my friends are outperforming index funds

What do you think is best for you? What they are doing or what you are doing?
by rossington
Sun May 03, 2020 4:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which Bond Fund: Tips, Total Bond, Other?
Replies: 11
Views: 1381

Re: Which Bond Fund: Tips, Total Bond, Other?

We are in our mid-70's and have a mid-seven figure portfolio plus SS and a small pension. SS and pension meet approximately 65% of our annual expenses and RMD's meet approximately 65% of our expenses. Virtually all of our portfolio is in tax-advantaged accounts due to increased expenses of signific...
by rossington
Sat May 02, 2020 1:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: [Cashed out in panic, how to get back in?]
Replies: 35
Views: 3872

Re: [Cashed out in panic, how to get back in?]

A couple of questions. What does 'live in HOCL' mean? Is your IRA a Roth account? I am not clear as to how you did not have a tax hit. What did you actually do to 'cash out'? If I take money out of my regular IRA I have to pay taxes. Should be HCOL...High Cost of Living. She cashed out of the inves...
by rossington
Sat May 02, 2020 1:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: [Cashed out in panic, how to get back in?]
Replies: 35
Views: 3872

Re: [Cashed out in panic, how to get back in?]

sadie wess wrote:
Sat May 02, 2020 11:00 am
Please help me understand how someone can "cash out" and not get a huge tax hit?

I am a long term investor and could not cash out much without a nasty tax bill.

Thank you for the help.

Sadie
From the OP:
"All of our funds are in tax advantaged accounts...SEP, IRA and 401k"
by rossington
Sat May 02, 2020 4:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Did I make a mistake with my bond allocation switch?
Replies: 24
Views: 2573

Re: Did I make a mistake with my bond allocation switch?

Ages: 39, 35 AAs: 75/25, 80/20 In early March, fearing exposure to corporate bonds and MBS in total bond funds from potential fallout of the coronavirus, I allocated some portion of my bond funds (maybe 30% to 60% of bond allocation) in 401k to a more stable fund (either a MM or Stable Value fund)....
by rossington
Sat May 02, 2020 3:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why are individual stocks so contrary?
Replies: 12
Views: 1182

Re: Why are individual stocks so contrary?

Since 1926 only 4% of all the stocks (about 1000 out of 26,000) have created all the value in the stock market. Of the 96% that created no value of the stock market since 1926, half of them actually did worse than a riskless asset, a t-bill. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=29004...
by rossington
Fri May 01, 2020 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Even if today was not Friday, it would not be a bona fide RBD.
Replies: 25
Views: 2474

Re: Even if today was not Friday, it would not be a bona fide RBD.

livesoft wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 3:03 pm
What? No.
So the 2.5% applies to all ETF's.
by rossington
Fri May 01, 2020 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Even if today was not Friday, it would not be a bona fide RBD.
Replies: 25
Views: 2474

Re: Even if today was not Friday, it would not be a bona fide RBD.

So other indexes have different triggering criteria? (Unless that's what this: "An RBD in 'all RBDs' meets only criteria (1) above" means.) Each ETF will have a different number for the "4th largest drop ....", right? So only VFINX requires 1, 2 and 3 above. All others only require 2 and 3...
by rossington
Fri May 01, 2020 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Even if today was not Friday, it would not be a bona fide RBD.
Replies: 25
Views: 2474

Re: Even if today was not Friday, it would not be a bona fide RBD.

The above only applies to VFINX the way it was originally written by someone else, so might properly be written as: A livesoft-defined RBD [for VFINX] meets all of these criteria: 1) [VFINX] drop of 2.5% or more 2) Drop greater than the 4th largest drop within the previous 150 days 3) Not a Friday ...
by rossington
Fri May 01, 2020 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"
Replies: 536
Views: 35612

Re: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"

Unless capital gains, and lower price fluctuations, played a role. You might be right, but I'd still like to see VBTLX (Admiral Shares, much better representation of true returns than VBMFX Investor Shares), that has paid monthly dividends and still had nice gains. Even now, at a pretty low point, ...
by rossington
Fri May 01, 2020 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Even if today was not Friday, it would not be a bona fide RBD.
Replies: 25
Views: 2474

Re: Even if today was not Friday, it would not be a bona fide RBD.

For those of us who haven't been around the forum as long as you, how do you define a RBD? (Also, are you referring to a Really Bad Day or a Rebalancing Day?) From the archives: "A livesoft-defined RBD meets all of these criteria: 1) VFINX drop of 2.5% or more 2) Drop greater than the 4th largest d...
by rossington
Fri May 01, 2020 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"
Replies: 536
Views: 35612

Re: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"

Were there every any capital gains generated by the Total Bond Index fund? Oh, it was just the Long Term Investment Grade that was used for the charts. I'm sure that there were, but Vanguard's TBM fund VBMFX has returned 2% less in total annualized returns since 1987 than VWESX, so it would have pe...
by rossington
Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"
Replies: 536
Views: 35612

Re: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"

The dollar amount is irrelevant. Vineviz was looking at spending all the dividends, not a fixed dollar amount. That's what I am curious about. Using his graphs what would the the annual dollar amount have been for the dividends/cap gains distributions be with a 1.5 - 2m starting portfolio? We can u...
by rossington
Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"
Replies: 536
Views: 35612

Re: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"

What if you invest in a total bond fund? Could you live off bond dividends, and simply not worry about the prices of the underlying bonds? Anyone? I can't see anyway this could work. Corporate bonds are typically callable, which puts an effective cap on the upside due to falling yields (so not much...
by rossington
Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"
Replies: 536
Views: 35612

Re: tn

hi But I'm asking you, what, as a dividend-focused investor, can I expect to get in terms of a SWR? Compared to a total return method, where we have lots of good research. if you draw no more than the dividends you're ok, no research needed you can probably even occasionally dip into the share base...
by rossington
Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this true, "You should never pay a premium for a good stock."
Replies: 23
Views: 1290

Re: Is this true, "You should never pay a premium for a good stock."

Is it okay to pay a premium for stock in a good company or it is best to wait for the price come down before investing? :confused Neither. It is a bad idea for most individual investors to buy individual stocks. *Only* if the investor does not research historical earnings growth, cash flow, cash re...
by rossington
Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this true, "You should never pay a premium for a good stock."
Replies: 23
Views: 1290

Re: Is this true, "You should never pay a premium for a good stock."

Is it okay to pay a premium for stock in a good company or it is best to wait for the price come down before investing? :confused Neither. It is a bad idea for most individual investors to buy individual stocks. *Only* if the investor does not research historical earnings growth, cash flow, cash re...
by rossington
Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend cuts
Replies: 9
Views: 929

Re: Dividend cuts

2020 is already apparently the second worst year for announced dividend cuts. It looks likely to become the worst, fast. If the market wakes up and notices reality, it will be heading south fast, so total returns including dividends will be terrible. Gonna need some pretty fast-footed 'rebalancing'...
by rossington
Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Parents cash at Vanguard
Replies: 29
Views: 2827

Re: Parents cash at Vanguard

Your parents use a bank, to pay bills and such, right? Can't really use Vanguard for that (used to be able to, but they discontinued their Vanguard Advantage accounts). Might as well use a bank that pays a decent rate of interest, such as Ally. As others have said, opening accounts at Ally is easy....
by rossington
Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Parents cash at Vanguard
Replies: 29
Views: 2827

Re: Parents cash at Vanguard

You won't find that yield in MM funds now. You'll have to look at bond funds. Although slightly more volatile than a MM, VBTLX (1.67% now) would be a good conservative choice assuming the money is not needed as you stated.
by rossington
Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"
Replies: 536
Views: 35612

Re: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"

ERN has also done the math as to why a "yield shield" doesn't work. The history of preferred stock ETFs backs up ERN's math too. The first portfolio below is 100% PFF, the second is PGX, and the third is 50% VTSAX (TSM fund) and 50% VUSTX (LTT fund). https://i.imgur.com/PxBCtv5.png?1 It seems that ...
by rossington
Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"
Replies: 536
Views: 35612

Re: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"

Unfortunately, many who are very 'pro-dividend' view their wealth strictly in terms of shares owned without regard to the market price of those shares. You are completely misrepresenting this. No investor wants their share price to devalue. An investor that accumulates "x" amount of shares to provi...
by rossington
Mon Apr 27, 2020 2:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why am I even saving for retirement?
Replies: 223
Views: 19850

Re: Why am I even saving for retirement?

If your mind is already made up then stop saving now.
by rossington
Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How many paid for kids' college?
Replies: 282
Views: 13475

Re: How many paid for kids' college?

We have two kids, one in kindergarten and the other in pre school. We have been saving money in 529 since they were born. We plan to fund their education all the way through without the need for them taking loans, as much as possible. We are generally averse to taking loans and frankly the interest...
by rossington
Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you comfortable with your emergency fund arrangements?
Replies: 44
Views: 3484

Re: Are you comfortable with your emergency fund arrangements?

New Poster here! I don't mean to brag at all, I will just say that I have been truly blessed, for the most part. I am just learning about being a Boglehead, and I don't qualify yet, but I am working towards it. I have been studying and experimenting with several types of investment strategies and p...
by rossington
Sun Apr 19, 2020 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does "Quantitative Easing" Lead to Higher Inflation?
Replies: 87
Views: 6003

Re: Does "Quantitative Easing" Lead to Higher Inflation?

Don't forget there is the distinct possibility that the U.S. economy will recover rapidly if the restrictions are lifted sooner as opposed to later. Even if some sort of inflation did occur and the Fed raised rates by a full percentage point to address it how much negative (if any) market impact wou...
by rossington
Sun Apr 19, 2020 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you comfortable with your emergency fund arrangements?
Replies: 44
Views: 3484

Re: Are you comfortable with your emergency fund arrangements?

considering half of americans don't have $400 in savings, I'd say I feel in better shape than half the country. And sometimes that's enough to think about. No matter how bad you might think you have it, there are many who have it way worse than you ever will. Those are the people I worry about. my ...
by rossington
Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain how negative interest rates work
Replies: 24
Views: 1985

Re: Explain how negative interest rates work

The Fed has stated that negative rates are not an option. They understand that forcing private money to stimulate the economy is a fruitless endeavor and not sustainable.
by rossington
Sat Apr 18, 2020 5:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 2 years from retirement - add to total bond?
Replies: 23
Views: 2404

Re: 2 years from retirement - add to total bond?

Two + years expenses cash equivalents, rest of desired AA in TSM/bonds.
by rossington
Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Switching from Bond funds to CD ladder
Replies: 26
Views: 1859

Re: Switching from Bond funds to CD ladder

If your sole concern is that rates will rise then sell bonds to cash now and after the rates rise then go to the higher paying CD's.
(Personally I don't think rising rates to any great degree is something to worry about)
by rossington
Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What in the world is propping up this market?
Replies: 206
Views: 20755

Re: What in the world is propping up this market?

What in the world is propping up the value of cash or bonds ? ... How can people keep money in cash that pays nothing (or less) in interest, while the government shows they're committed to supplying whatever amounts of cash liquidity the market desires. Who in the world is selling their long-term i...
by rossington
Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VGT vs VTI
Replies: 36
Views: 2416

Re: VGT vs VTI

It looks as if you are 100% stocks, how can you take on more risk? At 40 and your current income level the recent market events should make you consider moving a portion of your portfolio to fixed income. At least you will have minimized some risk. You could still do what you are considering within ...
by rossington
Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Understanding Freeriding restrictions in a Vanguard Brokerage account
Replies: 2
Views: 382

Re: Understanding Freeriding restrictions in a Vanguard Brokerage account

You have to wait 2 days for the trade to settle.
From Vanguard:"Your transaction occurs at the prevailing market price and settles 2 days after the trade date." https://investor.vanguard.com/investing ... o-buy-etfs
by rossington
Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Rekenthaler, "Whatever Happened to Emerging-Markets Stock Funds?"
Replies: 64
Views: 7152

Re: John Rekenthaler, "Whatever Happened to Emerging-Markets Stock Funds?"

China has grown at a frightening pace in the past two decades. However, unlike most other countries, due to the practices China does with its stock market, the Chinese stock market has not accurately (if at all) portrayed that rise. If emerging countries like China were more transparent (and had a ...