Search found 714 matches

by Blue456
Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 51 year old physician
Replies: 25
Views: 4259

Re: 51 year old physician

As others have noted, there is a good chance that your nest egg will be somewhere near 300k-500k in 10 years. If you are decided on retiring with that nest egg, the US would be difficult. Maybe some other country is possible. There are some articles on cnn where they profile people retiring in Sout...
by Blue456
Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Time for a new car?
Replies: 19
Views: 1151

Re: Time for a new car?

Families don’t require a SUV. If you want one, buy one, no need to justify as a family need. Our little Nissan Versa is just fine for a family.... I disagree, you want (maybe not need) a larger vehicle for the family. If you have two adults and two kids, where does the dog and all the toys go? Not ...
by Blue456
Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any believers in the dollar milkshake theory?
Replies: 58
Views: 15164

Re: Any believers in the dollar milkshake theory?

Thesaints wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:19 pm
If interest rates go much higher stocks are toast (and gold too, btw).
It will be a great time to buy both that's for sure :)
by Blue456
Mon Jul 06, 2020 3:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Verizon Wireless hassle!
Replies: 14
Views: 1388

Re: Verizon Wireless hassle!

I have been a Verizon customer for over twenty-five years, with no problems at all, until now. In May I received the usual monthly bill from Verizon and paid it promptly, as I always do. Two weeks later noticed that the check hadn’t been cashed. I contacted Verizon by online chat, and agent looked ...
by Blue456
Mon Jul 06, 2020 3:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value @ 100%
Replies: 14
Views: 1497

Re: Small Cap Value @ 100%

1789 wrote:
Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:53 pm
100% SCV seems a bit extreme :wink:
Why is 100% LCV not extreme?
by Blue456
Sun Jul 05, 2020 7:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 51 year old physician
Replies: 25
Views: 4259

Re: 51 year old physician

I am guilty of long-standing under-accumulating and over-spending. I’ve just turned the corner and am trying to determine how I can get financially free in 10 years with about $2500 per month to invest, so far. Any advice would be greatly appreciated. I am a physician as well. I am in my early 40s,...
by Blue456
Sat Jul 04, 2020 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 295
Views: 19482

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

So we have a compelling theory that gold should have zero expected return with no data to back it up, and data on gold prices with no theory as to why it should be true. I must admit, I would like to have a theory supported by data if I am going to invest in something. But you do have data. It is u...
by Blue456
Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Allan Roth: Muni bond default risk
Replies: 33
Views: 2164

Re: Allan Roth: Muni bond default risk

What is Allan suggesting we do? Not hold munis and hold Treasuries in taxable? If the risk of munis is this high, then so is the risk of corporate bonds. So we should also consider replacing TBM with Treasuries in tax deferred accounts? https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2020/06/08/the-qu...
by Blue456
Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: YoutubeTV subscription now $64.99/month
Replies: 168
Views: 12617

Re: YoutubeTV subscription now $64.99/month

pcsrini wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:02 pm
Google has raised the price of Youtube TV by 30% to $64.99/month. Late last year it was increased by 25% from $39.99 to $49.99. It's a good service, but the constant price increases make it less appealing.
I quit google back in 2010. I wouldn't use their service even if they paid me.
by Blue456
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does Alliant Credit Union make money on their Credit Card?
Replies: 29
Views: 3342

Re: How does Alliant Credit Union make money on their Credit Card?

With Alliant Credit Union giving 3% flat cash back on all purchases on their credit cards, I wonder how do they make money on it. I believe that the interchange fee that they earn is less than the cash-back. There are absolutely no limitations on the cash-back except that it is for the first year a...
by Blue456
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50% VTSAX (VANGUARD) & 50% Gold (One Gold)
Replies: 51
Views: 3657

Re: 50% VTSAX (VANGUARD) & 50% Gold (One Gold)

I think I'd rather hold i-bonds or TIPs vs. Gold to hedge any inflation. Heck even short term treasuries has done well vs. gold with much less volatility. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=4&startYear=1972&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=1...
by Blue456
Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50% VTSAX (VANGUARD) & 50% Gold (One Gold)
Replies: 51
Views: 3657

Re: 50% VTSAX (VANGUARD) & 50% Gold (One Gold)

I think I'd rather hold i-bonds or TIPs vs. Gold to hedge any inflation. Heck even short term treasuries has done well vs. gold with much less volatility. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=4&startYear=1972&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=1...
by Blue456
Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond funds - Why no bonds under 1 year.
Replies: 12
Views: 797

Re: Bond funds - Why no bonds under 1 year.

Because bonds with a duration of less than 1 year are no longer bonds but cash. One could debate exactly why this arbitrary line has been drawn at 1 year. Probably because 1 year is a nice round number. But generally you buy bonds for returns, to get returns you need to take some risk, and in this ...
by Blue456
Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond funds - Why no bonds under 1 year.
Replies: 12
Views: 797

Re: Bond funds - Why no bonds under 1 year.

Because bonds with a duration of less than 1 year are no longer bonds but cash. One could debate exactly why this arbitrary line has been drawn at 1 year. Probably because 1 year is a nice round number. But generally you buy bonds for returns, to get returns you need to take some risk, and in this ...
by Blue456
Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Trade in iPhone 6s Plus for $350 off iPhone 11?
Replies: 14
Views: 1301

Re: Trade in iPhone 6s Plus for $350 off iPhone 11?

Good evening and happy Friday everyone, I hope everyone is doing well, and I come to this forum seeking advice, as this forum has been a wealth of knowledge so far. I currently have an iPhone 6s Plus that works fairly well. All the functions work properly, except for the main camera which can't foc...
by Blue456
Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19266
Views: 2675005

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Sell in May and go away, no one ever listens. Sell in May? Since May 1st, the market is up 10% this year. Even if we start from May 8th, the day you first posted about selling in May, the market is up 6%. Here's the last 5 years of returns from the first trading day in May to the first trading day ...
by Blue456
Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19266
Views: 2675005

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Cases are spiking and it's summer, October could see another lockdown. Things are going to go back to normal eventually. Our retirement accounts will look very very differently if it takes 1 year vs. 10 years to get back to normal. I think during investment lifetime (as opposed to just accumulation...
by Blue456
Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: College Student Beginner Portfolio Advice
Replies: 34
Views: 1189

Re: College Student Beginner Portfolio Advice

Hey everyone! I am a 20-year-old college student and I am starting to plan more for my future (retirement, house down payment, etc.) and would like some advice as far as my investments go. ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________...
by Blue456
Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Susie Orman Says You are Crazy to be Investing in Bonds
Replies: 173
Views: 17324

Re: Susie Orman Says You are Crazy to be Investing in Bonds

For the average investor, holding cash is preferable to a bond imo. When money markets were paying 2.5% I was fine with cash, it gave me a slight real return. Now they pay .21% not good. I have been chasing a real return, for a fortnight I held NJ municipal bonds that were paying 3.3% tax free, tha...
by Blue456
Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do you want to own the whole haystack [VTI] when someone has a blowtorch?
Replies: 136
Views: 11410

Re: Do you want to own the whole haystack [VTI] when someone has a blowtorch?

Prettyfrtnt wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:23 pm
Why own a haystack (VTI) when someone has a blowtorch? Even Cramer says only a few will survive in many sectors.
I hope you know that VTI is not the haystack.
by Blue456
Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can foreign stock markets tell us anything about how the S&P might act in the future?
Replies: 30
Views: 1770

Re: Can foreign stock markets tell us anything about how the S&P might act in the future?

Robot Monster wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:03 am
Nisiprius's post was illuminating. Two stock markets went to zero?!! That's certainly a difficult down market to have to withstand!
There is a simple way to avoid this. Don't invest in single market.
by Blue456
Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19266
Views: 2675005

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

H-Town wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:16 am
Blue456 wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:23 am
I would say today is not a free fall.
You were saying?

Free-falling!!! See the thread title.
I jinxed it. Sorry guys...
by Blue456
Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taleb: The coronavirus is not a black swan.
Replies: 81
Views: 7826

Re: Taleb: The coronavirus is not a black swan.

It's a nuanced point, because a global pandemic was predictable, but the point of the Black Swan was that non-linear random events are *not* predictable. I disagree. Strictly from statistical analysis other black swans are predictable as well. For example there is 1 in 300,000 chance that the follo...
by Blue456
Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19266
Views: 2675005

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I would say today is not a free fall.
by Blue456
Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel weighs in on passive investing and alternatives to the 60/40...
Replies: 39
Views: 4557

Re: Malkiel weighs in on passive investing and alternatives to the 60/40...

Okay it's just one 20 year period but since it includes the dot com crash and the Great Recession and is recent enough that one could actually invest in all of the asset classes Malkiel recommends I think it's interesting: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode...
by Blue456
Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel weighs in on passive investing and alternatives to the 60/40...
Replies: 39
Views: 4557

Re: Malkiel weighs in on passive investing and alternatives to the 60/40...

Okay it's just one 20 year period but since it includes the dot com crash and the Great Recession and is recent enough that one could actually invest in all of the asset classes Malkiel recommends I think it's interesting: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode...
by Blue456
Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can Our Son Open a Vanguard Account if He is Temporarily Living In Canada?
Replies: 8
Views: 751

Re: Can Our Son Open a Vanguard Account if He is Temporarily Living In Canada?

Hey everybody...Does anyone know if our son can open an account at Vanguard if he is temporarily living/working in Canada? He has a U.S. bank account and is a U.S. citizen. His permanent U.S. residence is the same as ours and has had no problems with obtaining absentee ballots for U.S. elections. A...
by Blue456
Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2007 to 2020: The changing advice of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street"
Replies: 64
Views: 9840

Re: 2007 to 2020: The changing advice of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street"

I also think that, though not diversified, a huge number of Americans have the largest amount of their assets invested in their home(s), which, even if their primary residence, and not commercial, is a real estate investment. When I retire most Americans will have student loans. So this pattern of ...
by Blue456
Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Siegel on MiB Podcast: 60/40 is risky and more
Replies: 131
Views: 14458

Re: Jeremy Siegel on MiB Podcast: 60/40 is risky and more

Another investing authority is echoing Jeremy Siegel bond allocation sentiment: https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/investing-legend-burton-malkiel-on-day-trading-millennials-the-end-of-the-6040-portfolio-and-more-2020-06-22 Interesting. Burton Malkiel is saying that retirees might want to have “...
by Blue456
Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much tilting to SCV (rule of thumb)?
Replies: 95
Views: 6092

Re: How much tilting to SCV (rule of thumb)?

Uncorrelated wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:17 am
I don't know why Paul Merriman recommends a tilt based on age, but it sounds like a crude and simple attempt to approximate lifecycle investing.
I suspect this is because small cap is more risky than large cap.
by Blue456
Mon Jun 22, 2020 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Top 10 Things Bogleheads Get Wrong - White Coat Investor
Replies: 143
Views: 13605

Re: Top 10 Things Bogleheads Get Wrong - White Coat Investor

Nor, are they in the right state of mind to let their physicians know to try to stretch their dollars as far as possible. It's not exactly unfair that people don't want to be bankrupted after a car accident. You do realize that we as docs don't know the costs. And even if we did, how would we ethic...
by Blue456
Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much tilting to SCV (rule of thumb)?
Replies: 95
Views: 6092

Re: How much tilting to SCV (rule of thumb)?

If you believe the SCV (or just S or just V) premium still exists, then it would make sense to tilt X% to SCV? But what is the rule of thumb for X? Probably, the more time you have left for retirement, the more you should tilt to it. Paul Merriman suggests 1.5 x years-to-retirement https://paulmerr...
by Blue456
Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 286
Views: 70796

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

Since Ray Dalio has recently made some strong public statements concerning bonds (investors would be "pretty crazy to hold bonds" in this period), I'm wondering if anyone is changing something in the All-Seasons Portfolio to avoid the bond portion? Stocks are also getting very expensive. Seems like...
by Blue456
Sun Jun 21, 2020 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book on Bonds
Replies: 9
Views: 801

Re: Book on Bonds

aristotelian wrote:
Sun Jun 21, 2020 8:48 pm
Larry Swedroe, Only Winning Bond Strategy You Will Ever Need.

David Swenson, Unconventional Success. Not on bonds specifically but very good on the different types and roles they can play in a diversified portfolio.
Read both books as well. Highly recommended.
by Blue456
Sat Jun 20, 2020 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Siegel on MiB Podcast: 60/40 is risky and more
Replies: 131
Views: 14458

Re: Jeremy Siegel on MiB Podcast: 60/40 is risky and more

You could just replace bonds with T bills or TIPS and keep up with inflation while still holding lower allocations to equities
by Blue456
Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Corporate Bonds
Replies: 35
Views: 2327

Re: Corporate Bonds

Hi all, New to investing in bonds. Can you suggest some low risk corporate bonds? Also, is now a good time to invest in corporate bonds? QLTA only has AAA/AA/A rated bonds. How has that fund performed? One issue I can see is: when some individual bonds get downgraded to less than A, they would get ...
by Blue456
Sat Jun 20, 2020 1:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Corporate Bonds
Replies: 35
Views: 2327

Re: Corporate Bonds

Rjs wrote:
Fri Jun 19, 2020 1:55 pm
Hi all,
New to investing in bonds. Can you suggest some low risk corporate bonds? Also, is now a good time to invest in corporate bonds?
QLTA only has AAA/AA/A rated bonds.
by Blue456
Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Definition of "Diversifying Assets"?
Replies: 8
Views: 396

Re: Definition of "Diversifying Assets"?

Yes, comprise (good catch). Yes, I will read further and educate everyone if Swensen does define the term later in the book. Swensen never states that you must use specific equities or assets. His message is more broad and generally advocates not putting all eggs in one basket. He advises on keepin...
by Blue456
Sat Jun 20, 2020 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Definition of "Diversifying Assets"?
Replies: 8
Views: 396

Re: Definition of "Diversifying Assets"?

At the recommendation of a poster on this site, I purchased a copy of David F. Swensen's book "Unconventional Success". Early in the book he introduces the following Asset Classes which compromise a Well-Diversified, Equity Oriented Portfolio: (1) Domestic equities (2) Domestic bonds and cash (3) D...
by Blue456
Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A cautionary tale about pensions and wages
Replies: 76
Views: 10406

Re: A cautionary tale about pensions and wages

Folks, We have a healthcare bubble and a college bubble. The bubbles have to burst sometime. KlangFool People primarily associate bubbles with costs (healthcare costs, real estate and tuition). Does this apply to physician/nurse salaries (for the healthcare bubble) and professor salaries (for the c...
by Blue456
Fri Jun 19, 2020 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A cautionary tale about pensions and wages
Replies: 76
Views: 10406

Re: A cautionary tale about pensions and wages

Folks, We have a healthcare bubble and a college bubble. The bubbles have to burst sometime. KlangFool People primarily associate bubbles with costs (healthcare costs, real estate and tuition). Does this apply to physician/nurse salaries (for the healthcare bubble) and professor salaries (for the c...
by Blue456
Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 6465
Views: 546652

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

So what steps do they take to mitigate this risk? What percentage wait do you put on the Japanese style outcome? What would be the cost to protecting against this if it didn't occur? You have identified a potential problem, now we need to know the likelihood, the solution and the cost of the soluti...
by Blue456
Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 6465
Views: 546652

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Have we ever had a valuation like the Nikkei did at the top? If we do get to those valuations then yes I'd be concerned. That , my friend, is a credible distinction. But just look at the graph. Nevermind the top...imagine buying in at 23,000 in 1987. How overvalued did it seem then? Perhaps not so ...
by Blue456
Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need N95 Mask in a Small Size
Replies: 45
Views: 2914

Re: Need N95 Mask in a Small Size

What can an employee do, when an employer does not provide proper PPE? Can an employee have a right to refuse to do certain work? Does she have any legal rights? Can an employer open a practice without proper PPE? Thank You! It is not currently mandated by OSHA, so you'll have to check your state l...
by Blue456
Thu Jun 18, 2020 7:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need N95 Mask in a Small Size
Replies: 45
Views: 2914

Re: Need N95 Mask in a Small Size

What can an employee do, when an employer does not provide proper PPE? Can an employee have a right to refuse to do certain work? Does she have any legal rights? Can an employer open a practice without proper PPE? Thank You! It is not currently mandated by OSHA, so you'll have to check your state l...
by Blue456
Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Figuring out your Asset Allocation
Replies: 28
Views: 2146

Re: Figuring out your Asset Allocation

The Conventional AA (at age 40 that's 60/40) The New Life AA (at age 40 that's 80/20) The Survival AA (at age 50 that's 50/50) The Nothing-to-Lose AA (at age 40 that's 100/0)' The Financial Samurai AA (at age 40 that's 80/20) How have you gone about determining your AA? I read "Reducing the Risks o...
by Blue456
Wed Jun 17, 2020 7:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best fund (bonds?) in taxable for 2nd tier emergency fund
Replies: 31
Views: 1980

Re: Best fund (bonds?) in taxable for 2nd tier emergency fund

This would be for "tier 2" of our emergency fund (basically the 2nd half of a year's worth of expenses). 1st half is in a high yield savings account (currently all of a year's worth is there at 1.75% apr). Goals: Capital protection, some growth and to minimize taxes. I already pay both state/fed on...
by Blue456
Wed Jun 17, 2020 7:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Graduating resident new to investing
Replies: 16
Views: 1029

Re: Graduating resident new to investing

This is off-topic, but the single best piece of advice I can give is to live at your resident-level means for a year or two so your hypersave with the change in income. Sure, go ahead with one or two 'splurge' purchases, like a TV or trip (Oops-COVID!) but don't buy a fancy new car, expensive home ...