Search found 162 matches

by TNOA
Wed Jun 10, 2020 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19464
Views: 2695755

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

aj76er, I'm thinking about doing an over rebalance also. What is your criterion for switching back to 80/20? Just curious. Thanks. Lots of ways to look at it, and much of it is personal. Annual rebalance is my default. So it would be natural to assess in a year from now. If market is up, and valuat...
by TNOA
Sun May 03, 2020 5:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What experts say about "Stay-the-Course"
Replies: 32
Views: 12956

Re: What experts say about "Stay-the-Course"

Jack Bogle: "Stay the Course. No matter what happens , stick to your program. I've said "Stay the course" a thousand times, and I meant it every time. It is the most important single piece of investment wisdom I can give to you." Certainly good general advice. But Mr. Bogle didn't always stay the c...
by TNOA
Sun Apr 26, 2020 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19464
Views: 2695755

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Now that both hydroxychloroquine and Remdesivir are coming up empty as treatments we should have a clear path downward for stocks, at least until the next quick fix appears on the scene. I doubt that that alone will be enough to send stocks downward. There's still too much hope that all of this wil...
by TNOA
Sun Apr 26, 2020 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19464
Views: 2695755

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

whodidntante wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:03 pm
GLDM is pretty low-cost.
GLDM, despite being low(er) cost, seems too illiquid to my liking. On a cost-reward ratio, I do prefer IAU.
by TNOA
Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Total Bond and not Treasuries?
Replies: 161
Views: 14931

Re: Why Total Bond and not Treasuries?

The gap between VBTLX (Total Bond Index) performance and the two Intermediate Treasury Funds is quite large this past 5 weeks unlike what happened in 2008 (as shown in Nisi's graphs above). I am unable to copy the graphs comparing these funds in the past five or six weeks but maybe someone else can...
by TNOA
Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Total Bond and not Treasuries?
Replies: 161
Views: 14931

Re: Why Total Bond and not Treasuries?

I don't think it matters much, the advice of the cognoscenti has been contradictory, and I actually like the way Total Bond neither leaped nor dove in 2008-2009. Since at least 2011 or 2012 or so, there have constantly been two gripes with Total Bond. 1) Some people, all along , have been saying if...
by TNOA
Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should a buy and hold investor shorten bond duration?
Replies: 21
Views: 2880

Re: Why should a buy and hold investor shorten bond duration

A B&H should shorten if they think they can time the markets. I know I can't, so I keep plodding along with my chosen AA. If I worry a little about returns, I find a way to contribute another percent to my 401k. Fantastic. Congratulations for having won at least this part of the game in hindsight l...
by TNOA
Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should a buy and hold investor shorten bond duration?
Replies: 21
Views: 2880

Re: Why should a buy and hold investor shorten bond duration

and it's reasonable that bonds at the moment cannot go much lower. That's why many bogleheads engage in gentle market-timing when it comes to bonds. You have written this in 2013. I am writing this in 2020 as response. Have you seen how wrong you were when you deviated from the true BH principles? ...
by TNOA
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]
Replies: 372
Views: 26023

Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

EnjoyIt wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:46 am
I still can't help but think that maybe revisiting your asset allocation may be the best decision for you.
+1
Exactly my thought.
by TNOA
Thu Apr 02, 2020 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]
Replies: 372
Views: 26023

Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

[Title was "Disappointed in forum members" --admin LadyGeek] I expected more from the members on this forum. So many people asking about selling now and buying back in later and lots of people are agreeing it's a good idea. What happened to the Boglehead philosophy? Why be here if you don't believe...
by TNOA
Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]
Replies: 372
Views: 26023

Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

And I probably shouldn't even kick myself for underestimating the risk in the market and having established an asset allocation that's riskier than it should have been. This is an excellent lesson, which to some degree we all went thru. I can't give advice (not that you asked) as everyone's persona...
by TNOA
Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]
Replies: 372
Views: 26023

Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

To OP, it's because most investors tend to overestimate their risk tolerance. It's very common. This might be the same thing said a different way, but I underestimated the range of possible risks. I had pretty much discounted that there would be a bear market/recession of the Great Depression magni...
by TNOA
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]
Replies: 372
Views: 26023

Re: Disappointed in forum members

U.S. in 1929 was different. Japan in 1991 was different. It doesn't happen often, but occasionally it "is* different. Otherwise it would be easier to just buy the dip every single time. Notably, in both of those scenarios a balance of bonds and stocks (1929) and/or bonds, stocks and international (...
by TNOA
Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]
Replies: 372
Views: 26023

Re: Why are people selling? Disappointed in people here...

I don’t mind you asking, but I’m not quite sure what you’re attempting to gain from my answers. I started a new job last year and, since I have maxed my tax-sheltered tIRA with bonds Thank you again and sorry I wasn’t more transparent. I’ve been reading all blogs I can find where I see a tendency o...
by TNOA
Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]
Replies: 372
Views: 26023

Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

losing value temporarily is better than losing money permanently. am sticking. This is the quote of the day. I keep telling my wife this exact thing one hundred different ways, but apparently never so eloquently. Thanks for this, I am now going to give this a shot as this one should do the trick.
by TNOA
Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]
Replies: 372
Views: 26023

Re: Why are people selling? Disappointed in people here...

I have not re-balanced, but did change my 401K allocation. Thank you for taking the time to lay it out, really appreciate it. That said, my apology if I missed something here. Assuming I am understanding correctly, I must again inquire if you could describe what exactly has happened that made you d...
by TNOA
Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]
Replies: 372
Views: 26023

Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

It is no more correct to say all should stay the course than to say all should sell or all should add to their portfolio. Without knowing the circumstances of another, none of us is qualified to say more Tim Respectfully, I must disagree. I thought AA was the great normalizer for this uncertainty o...
by TNOA
Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]
Replies: 372
Views: 26023

Re: Why are people selling? Disappointed in people here...

I’ve yet to sell. My 70/30 AA is way out of wack, but I’m not exchanging bonds for equites to rebalance. So much volatility and uncertainty for the next few months. Well, do you have a bandwith e.g., "- 5% then I will rebalance?" Me too I have a 70/30 but strictly speaking it is within the 5% band ...
by TNOA
Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]
Replies: 372
Views: 26023

Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

I am surprised and disappointed to what happened to my intermediate bond funds which was unexpected and not the norm for falling equities. Some drop in bond funds would be tolerated but not this severe drop. I moved a large amount of my bond fund investment to the US Treasury Money Market fund and ...
by TNOA
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF VTEB - TLH or hold on?
Replies: 13
Views: 939

Re: Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF VTEB - TLH or hold on?

Everyone together say: "Thank-you Mr. Powell!!" Always nice to have your interests aligned with that of the various governments who need to borrow huge sums of money. Driving yields lower by buying up munis --> higher muni bond prices. Of course, thank you Mr. Powell, no doubt. That said, the idea ...
by TNOA
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VWLUX and VWIUX [Long and Intermediate tax-exempt]
Replies: 94
Views: 5631

Re: VWLUX and VWIUX [Long and Intermediate tax-exempt]

I just sold all VWLUX holding, half yesterday and rest today. Knowing how states will need to deal with covid impact, and with first knowledge of how we are not following the best approach to mitigate spread, I am glad I was able to pull out with lower losses and start investing into stocks, but no...
by TNOA
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF VTEB - TLH or hold on?
Replies: 13
Views: 939

Re: Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF VTEB - TLH or hold on?

I am seeking some advice on which is the better approach: We put some of the college tuition money for our children needed over the next 2.5 years into VTEB tax exempt bond fund (reason for the ETF at the time was that this money was in Merrill Edge, and I wanted to stick with Vanguard ETFs/funds, ...
by TNOA
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VWLUX and VWIUX [Long and Intermediate tax-exempt]
Replies: 94
Views: 5631

Re: VWLUX and VWIUX [Long and Intermediate tax-exempt]

Just confused as to what to do with my 30% bonds that are currently 50/50 VGIT/VTEB. Have you considered Baird's Intermediate muni, BMBIX? The ER is .30, but it's almost 100% AAA/AA with 47% prefunded bonds. Is there a safer muni? The difference in SEC-yield, ER, number of holdings (to an extent) a...
by TNOA
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VWLUX and VWIUX [Long and Intermediate tax-exempt]
Replies: 94
Views: 5631

Re: VWLUX and VWIUX [Long and Intermediate tax-exempt]

I just sold all VWLUX holding, half yesterday and rest today. Knowing how states will need to deal with covid impact, and with first knowledge of how we are not following the best approach to mitigate spread, I am glad I was able to pull out with lower losses and start investing into stocks, but no...
by TNOA
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VWLUX and VWIUX [Long and Intermediate tax-exempt]
Replies: 94
Views: 5631

Re: VWLUX and VWIUX [Long and Intermediate tax-exempt]

15% comeback in VTEB - unreal !! Is this perhaps the time we should liquidate VTEB and put it all into VGIT? This whole move (not like how it had played out during 2008) truly bothered me as someone who has his 30% bonds portfolio 50/50 VGIT/VTEB. This time we may have been saved by the Fed repurch...
by TNOA
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VWLUX and VWIUX [Long and Intermediate tax-exempt]
Replies: 94
Views: 5631

Re: VWLUX and VWIUX [Long and Intermediate tax-exempt]

Can the change in NAV of bond funds be due to many people conducting rebalancing? With the steep drop in equity prices, don't you think people are transferring the higher percentage in their bond bond exposure, over to their now-lower percentage in equity exposure, in order to get back to their des...
by TNOA
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VWLUX and VWIUX [Long and Intermediate tax-exempt]
Replies: 94
Views: 5631

Re: VWLUX and VWIUX [Long and Intermediate tax-exempt]

Can the change in NAV of bond funds be due to many people conducting rebalancing? With the steep drop in equity prices, don't you think people are transferring the higher percentage in their bond bond exposure, over to their now-lower percentage in equity exposure, in order to get back to their des...
by TNOA
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VWLUX and VWIUX [Long and Intermediate tax-exempt]
Replies: 94
Views: 5631

Re: VWLUX and VWIUX [Long and Intermediate tax-exempt]

15% comeback in VTEB - unreal !! Is this perhaps the time we should liquidate VTEB and put it all into VGIT? This whole move (not like how it had played out during 2008) truly bothered me as someone who has his 30% bonds portfolio 50/50 VGIT/VTEB. This time we may have been saved by the Fed repurcha...
by TNOA
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Replies: 34
Views: 2483

Re: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?

If you can meet your annual needs with the VTI dividend yield (which has gone as low as about 1.6% annually), you may be fine with a portfolio of 100% equities. But if your withdrawal rate is that low, I'm not sure why you would seek to significantly increase risk for a modest increase in reward. F...
by TNOA
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Replies: 34
Views: 2483

Re: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?

DW and I are both retired (fairly recently) and have pensions with COLAs, along with DW’s Social Security…and my SS in the future. This covers all of our financial needs, both normal and emergency, which makes it easy to be comfortable with an AA of 100% equities. Our current situation is based on ...
by TNOA
Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Replies: 34
Views: 2483

Re: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?

You mention that you put a lot of thought/work into setting your AA at 70/30. I think that was a wise process and am a subscriber to the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" philosophy in many areas of life. A few thoughts about "living off dividends". 1. If you are serious about your plan to live off...
by TNOA
Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Replies: 34
Views: 2483

Re: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?

US investors (including me) have led charmed lives the past few decades. BUT consider what happened in Japan over the past 30 years - it may not, but COULD happen here, in which case 100% equities in retirement may be imprudent. Agree and good point. However, Japanese investors only suffered if the...
by TNOA
Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International bonds
Replies: 66
Views: 7299

Re: International bonds

saintsfan342000 wrote:
Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:13 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 10:47 pm
I believe there already is an Admiral share class available.
There is for Total International Bonds (BNDX/VTABX),
but not for Total World Bonds (currently only the ETF BNDW)
Can you please elaborate on why BNDW is less desirable than Admiral (since there is search for Admiral shares)?
by TNOA
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International bonds
Replies: 66
Views: 7299

Re: International bonds

I'm taking a closer look at Vanguard's new Global Credit Bond fund lately. This bond fund is on the lower end of investment-grade. For the same reason, the case for international diversification is much more obvious with it. Vanguard Global Credit seems like the most solid one-stop-shop replacement...
by TNOA
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International bonds
Replies: 66
Views: 7299

Re: International bonds

I'm taking a closer look at Vanguard's new Global Credit Bond fund lately. This bond fund is on the lower end of investment-grade. For the same reason, the case for international diversification is much more obvious with it. Vanguard Global Credit seems like the most solid one-stop-shop replacement...
by TNOA
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Replies: 34
Views: 2483

Re: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?

I don't think I could go completely 100%, I always in life if possible made sure I had a plan "b" to fall back on. Looking back, after this virus scare resolves itself, it will probably be a very good entry point to make a considerable amount to money. However, nothing is certain and the extra moni...
by TNOA
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Replies: 34
Views: 2483

Re: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?

My guess is that you'll find the 100%-equities-in-retirement folks are the ones who have a large portfolio compared to their expenses, or have other sources of revenue besides their portfolio. But maybe that's obvious. It is obvious but I am just as much grateful for the time you took to respond as...
by TNOA
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Replies: 34
Views: 2483

Re: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?

Interesting question. We're not 100% equities - our retirement portfolio (IRAs and Roths) is 70/30 and our taxable portfolio is 100% equities. In spite of having 3 secure COLA pensions that provide about 2X our monthly expenses, it'd be hard for me to be 'all in' on equities. This past month has re...
by TNOA
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Replies: 34
Views: 2483

Re: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?

Not retired, or close to it, but I'm a big planner, and I've thought about it. Especially in the setting of early retirement and/or longevity insurance. I've done a lot of reading on Big ERN's safe withdrawal series. Larger equity allocations do very well over the long term, allowing for a higher s...
by TNOA
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Replies: 34
Views: 2483

Re: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?

yes, I retired at 50, no pension, 100% equities and zero bonds but my withdraw rate is less then 1.5% of my portfolio. My equities portfolio was 49x yearly expenses, EF is 3x yearly expenses and I assume to survive a 50% hair cut. I don't understand why you going into 100% equities right before ret...
by TNOA
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Replies: 34
Views: 2483

Re: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?

It's a lot easier to consider 100% equities on a day the market is up 10%. I bet a lot of people wish they were 100% bonds on the days it is down 10%. Good point. This question didn't come up to me today. But I understand the skepticism and the subsequent pointing in case it did. Very helpful, and ...
by TNOA
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Replies: 34
Views: 2483

Re: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?

Call_Me_Op wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:57 pm
Sorry, I don't want to spend my retirement in abject misery.
I don't want you to either.
by TNOA
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Replies: 34
Views: 2483

Re: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?

I've got a pension that meets all of our monthly needs so our portfolio is for irregular expenses (replacement vehicles, home improvement, giving, travel and other discretionary spending). We were 100% VTSAX until I was a year away from retirement when we adjusted to 80/20 (adding VBTLX). In mid-Fe...
by TNOA
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Replies: 34
Views: 2483

Re: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?

If you have a $75k COLA pension and live off $60k, you could possibly go 100/0. You could, but I wouldn't recommend it to any friend or pal or buddy. You could also go 0/100 in that scenario. I wouldn't recommend that either. Thank you. I answered some of the other questions above that tangentially...
by TNOA
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Replies: 34
Views: 2483

Re: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?

In my opinion the only people who survive 100% equities are those who don't look at their accounts. If you are one of those, which if you're on the board, you probably are not, but if you are, you have a chance. This is my first big bear market test. I am on the board, as well as look at my account...
by TNOA
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Replies: 34
Views: 2483

Re: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?

Curious, could you explain why you are considering such intense risk at this stage of your life? I am 56. Hoping for a long life. I can (albeit barely, but still) survive simply off my dividends and interest. Merging expected life in years (hopeful thinking perhaps) with some capital preservation, ...
by TNOA
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Replies: 34
Views: 2483

Re: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?

Flyer24 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:00 pm
Thread has been retitled to remove all caps.
Thank you, I was simply not aware they were all caps. My apologies.
by TNOA
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Replies: 34
Views: 2483

Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?

I recently retired and considering going 100% equities. I know this is for most people against the conventional wisdom. However, we are all different. I am truly interested in the insights of any retirees who actually have an asset allocation with 100% equities and that they are (very?) comfortable ...
by TNOA
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing Puzzle; I am Lost!
Replies: 4
Views: 449

Re: Rebalancing Puzzle; I am Lost!

I decided to rebalance my 4-Fund portfolio before the Close today. This would be the first time for me since the current market decline started a month ago. But I wasn’t able to! And the reason why was I simply didn’t know how to solve the following problem: Equities are 60/40 and Bonds are 50/50. ...
by TNOA
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing Puzzle; I am Lost!
Replies: 4
Views: 449

Re: Rebalancing Puzzle; I am Lost!

It is entirely possible for an asset to have gone down and still be over its target. Other assets went down even more. Rebalancing has nothing to do with selling after things have gone up and buying after things have gone down. Rebalancing is intended to set the fractions allocated to each asset at...