Search found 102 matches

by esteen
Fri Nov 29, 2019 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bogleheads on Investing Podcast" doubles in five months
Replies: 17
Views: 1908

Re: "Bogleheads on Investing Podcast" doubles in five months

Thank you Rick and any others who helped this podcast, it is a gem.
by esteen
Fri Nov 29, 2019 12:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Invest cash in conservative manner until next recession
Replies: 119
Views: 10755

Re: Invest cash in conservative manner until next recession

Hello Experts, Assuming I have about $1mil sitting in cash in savings accounts giving 2.00% apy, I would like to wait until the next recession (hard to say when but will happen :o ) to invest in something like Vanguard500index fund at a good buying price . If you are going to market time you might ...
by esteen
Fri Nov 29, 2019 12:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Wait and watch or Not?
Replies: 21
Views: 1919

Re: Wait and watch or Not?

Both my individual experience and empirical studies have shown me that people predicting the market going up or down have the same accuracy as random chance. Therefore I assume I nor the talking heads can predict what will happen in 2020 or any other future year (and whatever is generally expected t...
by esteen
Sun Nov 17, 2019 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Preparing for a down market
Replies: 78
Views: 7114

Re: Preparing for a down market

OP - there are plenty of times throughout the history of the market where it took FAR longer than 25 (or even 49) months to recover. You might want to consider this rather sobering chart if you haven't seen it previously: https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2018/8/18/saupload_SP500-Real-Time-To...
by esteen
Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 367
Views: 25229

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

A person's age does not determine when the person will reach Financial Independence. It is the saving rate as a ratio of the annual expense. If the person saved 1 year of expense every year, the person could reach 25X annual expense in 17 or fewer years with 70/30. Why should the person be 100/0? I...
by esteen
Tue Nov 12, 2019 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich people are hoarding cash
Replies: 233
Views: 34987

Re: Rich people are hoarding cash

Even if these folks happened to predict the peak with enough accuracy to lock in gains, they then must predict the trough with just as much accuracy.

Hard to be right twice, consistently.
by esteen
Mon Nov 11, 2019 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's active bond ratings article
Replies: 18
Views: 1718

Re: Academics accuse Morningstar of misclassifying bond funds

I know it's not quite the same thing but it immediately reminded me of the S&P and Moody's inflated ratings in the sub-prime mortgage crisis... :oops:
by esteen
Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $2,467 is a minimum emergency fund
Replies: 36
Views: 8257

Re: $2,467 is a minimum emergency fund

I think it may be perfectly reasonable to have the ultra liquid & ultra safe portion of the emergency fund restricted to one month's salary. The other five to 12 months salary/living expenses can then be invested in safe assets such as bond funds. I've generally been quite comfortable holding very ...
by esteen
Mon Sep 23, 2019 4:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?
Replies: 297
Views: 32971

Re: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?

Like many, I have an international fund in my portfolio for diversification. Unfortunately, it seems like this play does nothing but consistently bring the rest of my portfolio down. What are your thoughts on VTIAX? After recent event it's pretty much given back all gains for the year and it seems ...
by esteen
Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheets
Replies: 77
Views: 7030

Re: Spreadsheets

I use a spreadsheet. It helps me track things so I would say it's helpful, though not absolutely necessary. I have an instructions/explanations tab for DW, a net worth (balance sheet) tab, an expenses tab (actual, budget, and projected in retirement), a savings plan tab, a housing tab (mortgage amor...
by esteen
Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Elderly Parents
Replies: 7
Views: 950

Re: Elderly Parents

I think a big part of the question is how necessary this money is for them. Are they relying on the dividends as part of their base ongoing expenses, or is that extra "fun" money? Is this portfolio doing any self-insuring, for example if they did not have this money would they need more LTC insuranc...
by esteen
Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I PRE-tire yet?
Replies: 10
Views: 2321

Re: Can I PRE-tire yet?

It definitely can work, but you'll have to be flexible with your plans should life throw you a wrench. By giving up your ongoing savings you are giving up the thing that you most control about your retirement nest egg. While future living expenses can be mostly controlled, no one knows what the futu...
by esteen
Mon Sep 16, 2019 1:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you spend an extra day a week for 1 year working for a luxury
Replies: 27
Views: 2604

Re: Would you spend an extra day a week for 1 year working for a luxury

There are many ways you could take this as a hypothetical (e.g. my luxury is my own private island!) But assuming realistic parameters no, I would not. I am at a time in my life where spending that day with my family, friends, and passions far outweighs any reasonable luxury item.
by esteen
Mon Sep 16, 2019 12:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil price going to a $100-- time to change your asset allocation??
Replies: 86
Views: 9113

Re: Oil price going to a $100-- time to change your asset allocation??

KlangFool wrote:
Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:28 am
If your AA is not prepared for event like this, perhaps you should change your AA.
This is the only reason you should change your AA, not for any market predictions
by esteen
Mon Sep 16, 2019 12:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Now what?
Replies: 15
Views: 1638

Re: Now what?

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Mon Sep 16, 2019 12:21 am
Just tell people you’re in real estate.
This is probably the best idea if you don't want to tell them retired. Or if you stop doing RE you could say you're "in between things at the moment". They don't have to know what you're in between :D
by esteen
Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil price going to a $100-- time to change your asset allocation??
Replies: 86
Views: 9113

Re: Oil price going to a $100-- time to change your asset allocation??

The great thing about financial news is that by the time you've heard it, and especially by the time you've heard it 2nd hand on a forum, it's already priced into the market and no action is required! :sharebeer
by esteen
Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Managing joint finances when one is a perfectionist
Replies: 122
Views: 8735

Re: Managing joint finances when one is a perfectionist

Thanks for the advice, everyone. He really is very financially responsible, in terms of the big picture - he saves a lot and earns a lot - so this is just about the organizational aspects of it. In fact, one of the reasons why he's so absent-minded about things like credit card bills is he will set...
by esteen
Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Prulife life insurance
Replies: 41
Views: 2450

Re: Prulife life insurance

Purchasing power doesn't really have anything to do with it. If she invests money to save up $100k it will still have the same value as $100k paid on a death benefit at that point in time. Agree, preserving PP may not be the OP's intent, I was more addressing your comment of guaranteeing $100K. I m...
by esteen
Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Managing joint finances when one is a perfectionist
Replies: 122
Views: 8735

Re: Managing joint finances when one is a perfectionist

My wife is like your husband. I do the finances, about 99% of the actual work. However, it is important that we are aligned in our goals. Having those big picture conversations about what you want in life are the most important. This. You can have different styles, and it is common for one person i...
by esteen
Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Term Life Insurance vs Permanent Life
Replies: 26
Views: 1831

Re: Term Life Insurance vs Permanent Life

Taking action NOW!!!!!!!!!! THIS DAY!!!!!!!!! is silly exaggeration, and IMO contributes to the fear some folks have about investing and is sometimes why they use advisers more than might be warranted. Yes, if the family depends on income, term insurance is a good idea. But rushing into any pricey ...
by esteen
Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Whistleblowing / Going Rogue at Work
Replies: 122
Views: 6892

Re: Whistleblowing / Going Rogue at Work

This is fascinating. Agree with everyone else: best to not meet, stop the behavior, and work on making yourself happy at this job or happy at another.
by esteen
Fri Sep 13, 2019 1:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Prulife life insurance
Replies: 41
Views: 2450

Re: Prulife life insurance

Someone in their 60's is also not going to be investing in risky assets, so the overall rate of return should be expected to be lower than a younger investor. Disagree - this money is being set aside for her grandchildren, so using her lifespan is not an appropriate time horizon. The life insurance...
by esteen
Fri Sep 13, 2019 1:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Prulife life insurance
Replies: 41
Views: 2450

Re: Prulife life insurance

I'm glad you found the Bogleheads, and thank you for posting your question. Could it possibly end up a good purchase decision, if you were to pass away early? Possibly. Is it on average the best idea? No. Mathematically it can't be - you are paying a middleman in terms of commission and ongoing cost...
by esteen
Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 21 Years Old - Trying to learn young!!
Replies: 21
Views: 2232

Re: 21 Years Old - Trying to learn young!!

Good for you, keep that thirst for knowledge and it will take you a long way! Here are my 10 money tenets for folks your age: 1. You have to save to invest. You have to invest to get rich. Bare minimum , save 10% of your income. 15%, ok. 20%, better. 25%+, now we're talking! 2. Live beneath your mea...
by esteen
Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There And Back Again: My 180 Back To Simplicity
Replies: 15
Views: 4127

Re: There And Back Again: My 180 Back To Simplicity

"My human capital—the present value of my future labor income savings—functions kind of like a high-quality inflation-protected bond." Really? Do high-quality inflation-protected bonds carry cardboard boxes out of Lehman Brothers? Do high-quality inflation-protected bonds get multiple sclerosis? Th...
by esteen
Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is now still a good time to buy VTSAX?
Replies: 45
Views: 4254

Re: Is now still a good time to buy VTSAX?

If it's hard to ignore market conditions, create a "set it and forget it" program of automatic contributions, then forget it. DOn't log in, don't check your balance, don't listen to financial radio or TV. Go spend time with non-financial endeavors, and 10+ years from now you'll look back and be wowe...
by esteen
Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question about Roth 401K
Replies: 26
Views: 1223

Re: Question about Roth 401K

It's a matter of preference since we can't see the future, but my personal take is I like the "taxation diversification" of having retirement monies spread throughout Traditional, Roth, and taxable accounts, because it gives you more flexibility in retirement to minimize your tax burden by withdrawi...
by esteen
Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is our fixed income allocation too low?
Replies: 66
Views: 4271

Re: Is our fixed income allocation too low?

You're right that it's lower than most suggest. However that doesn't mean it's bad. AA is a very individual decision. The biggest thing is that your plan is well thought out, and takes into account all your current life circumstances as well as has floor support for worst case scenarios. One big pie...
by esteen
Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?
Replies: 297
Views: 32971

Re: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?

Like many, I have an international fund in my portfolio for diversification. Unfortunately, it seems like this play does nothing but consistently bring the rest of my portfolio down. What are your thoughts on VTIAX? After recent event it's pretty much given back all gains for the year and it seems ...
by esteen
Thu Aug 22, 2019 11:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I go 100% index funds
Replies: 22
Views: 2964

Re: Should I go 100% index funds

These are all in retirement accounts. No tax issues. It's just tough when they've done well over the years. Maybe I've fallen in love with my funds. Trying to be smarter than the market. Though it is statistically likely that a switch to index funds would help optimize future net returns, it's not ...
by esteen
Thu Aug 22, 2019 1:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early Withdrawal Penalty on Roth IRA Rollover $
Replies: 4
Views: 349

Re: Early Withdrawal Penalty on Roth IRA Rollover $

Silk McCue wrote:
Wed Aug 21, 2019 7:36 pm
Please see this thread from last year that had responses from Alan S. An expert here.

viewtopic.php?t=241428

Cheers
This is perfect, thank you!
by esteen
Thu Aug 22, 2019 1:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early Withdrawal Penalty on Roth IRA Rollover $
Replies: 4
Views: 349

Re: Early Withdrawal Penalty on Roth IRA Rollover $

So for example, if I had $100K in my Roth 401k comprised of $50K employee contributions, $20K employer contributions, and $30K in returns, then rolled it all over to an existing Roth IRA, I could withdraw $50K+20K = $70K without penalty at any time because that money counts as contributions. You co...
by esteen
Wed Aug 21, 2019 7:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What percentage of vested amount of 401k Match to consider in AA?
Replies: 2
Views: 135

Re: What percentage of vested amount of 401k Match to consider in AA?

I would not count it in asset allocation or otherwise until vested. That said, if it's a 5-year graduated scale, the dollars are probably not so large that they are going to materially impact your AA unless you are just starting your investing journey. If you are, then changes in your future contrib...
by esteen
Wed Aug 21, 2019 7:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good time to implement plan?
Replies: 6
Views: 432

Re: Good time to implement plan?

If he wouldn't want to be in a 60/40 portfolio during an economic downturn, he should never be in a 60/40 portfolio. The point of finding the correct AA for an individual is one they are comfortable to stick with in good times and bad. Sounds like he has some more thinking to do about what he truly ...
by esteen
Wed Aug 21, 2019 7:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early Withdrawal Penalty on Roth IRA Rollover $
Replies: 4
Views: 349

Early Withdrawal Penalty on Roth IRA Rollover $

Hi All, This question had been rolling around in my head for a while: Do rollover dollars from a Roth 401k into a Roth IRA count as contributions, earnings, or some of each when withdrawing before age 59 1/2? I searched popular media articles, IRS.gov publications and articles, and called the IRS (t...
by esteen
Wed Aug 21, 2019 6:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimating social security in the future
Replies: 29
Views: 2168

Re: Estimating social security in the future

Social security >30 years away is not your biggest input in your projections - LT inflation and investment returns probably have more impact, and as you know we can't even project those! Arguably larger is your savings rate, which you think you can project, but in reality life is rarely predictable ...
by esteen
Wed Aug 21, 2019 4:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Young Professionals ... Pay Student Loan or ???
Replies: 10
Views: 1077

Re: Young Professionals ... Pay Student Loan or ???

What's the interest rate on the student loans? My answer would depend on that. Assuming they are at least 5% or so, I would contribute to the 401(k) up to the company match and put all the rest of the excess cash inflow into aggressively paying down the loans. It doesn't make good sense to put money...
by esteen
Tue Aug 20, 2019 6:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fisher Investment solicitation
Replies: 27
Views: 2670

Re: Fisher Investment solicitation

psteinx wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:46 pm
dettom wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:41 pm
Do any of my boglehead friends have a very short and succinct retort than I could respond to stop this guy from writing and calling me? Thank you!
I'm not interested. Please put me on your "do not call" list. Goodbye.
This
by esteen
Tue Aug 20, 2019 6:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I go 100% index funds
Replies: 22
Views: 2964

Re: Should I go 100% index funds

If it were me I would move to passive funds, but only after considering tax implications like Watty said. If it is a taxable event, your balance as compared to where you are in your accumulation cycle will have to factor into your decision. For example, if you are young and have a relatively low bal...
by esteen
Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: First time selling out of taxable account
Replies: 12
Views: 2270

Re: First time selling out of taxable account

You should sell the shares with the least amount of taxable gain IF and ONLY IF you believe that long term capital gains tax rate will be at 15% or less. If you believe that future long term capital gain tax rates will be above 15% in the future, then you'd sell the shares with the most taxable gai...
by esteen
Sun Aug 11, 2019 3:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Its it time to light the FIRE -
Replies: 34
Views: 4995

Re: Its it time to light the FIRE -

Good points above, I'll only add that if you haven't already, think long and hard about what you'll be doing in retirement. Hanging around at the house? Travelling? Working part-time on passion projects? Moving from a busy stressful FT job directly to staying at home with an already stay-at-home par...
by esteen
Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you think oil prices will drop where would you invest?
Replies: 70
Views: 4259

Re: If you think oil prices will drop where would you invest?

misterno wrote:
Sun Aug 11, 2019 2:02 am
esteen wrote:
Sat Aug 10, 2019 10:14 pm
VTSAX :beer
And what is your reason?
Because I know I can't time the market. Ymmv
by esteen
Sat Aug 10, 2019 10:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Student loan debt vs. VTSAX
Replies: 40
Views: 3367

Re: Student loan debt vs. VTSAX

It sounds like your student loan has special terms that accrue simple interest (interest in the capital amount only). I have seen that in student loans before, and in that scenario, you are correct you can't compare it directly to a 6% (compound) interest guaranteed investment. Questions: 1) Will th...
by esteen
Sat Aug 10, 2019 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fallacy of Dollar Cost Averaging
Replies: 101
Views: 9797

Re: The fallacy of Dollar Cost Averaging

I've never heard someone say Dollar Cost Averaging had higher expected returns. That would not have been something you heard here. Most of the time the market is going up, so historically the sooner you get the money in, the more it will make... but sometimes it doesn't work that way and you have t...
by esteen
Thu Aug 08, 2019 9:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?
Replies: 33
Views: 5072

Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

retiredjg wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 7:47 am
First, establish an emergency fund in case "something comes up". Then start investing the next day. The "market high" is irrelevant. Ignore the market and invest money when you have it.
+1
by esteen
Thu Aug 08, 2019 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: POST YOUR QUESTIONS FOR THE EXPERTS PANEL Q&A HERE
Replies: 84
Views: 16948

Re: POST YOUR QUESTIONS FOR THE EXPERTS PANEL Q&A HERE

Open for the panel: In the near future, are there any modification practices/techniques you see as being very important for advisory firms to utilize to help individual investors establish good saving and investing habits in the face of the modern consumer world? I'm always interested in how industr...
by esteen
Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do I need bonds?
Replies: 10
Views: 921

Re: Do I need bonds?

I think every portfolio needs some bonds. I am in my 30s and started with some bonds just to see how they behave, which ones I like and the tax implications of holding them. The question (in my mind) isn't do I need bonds, but how much (5-10-15%) token to I need to understand their value in my port...
by esteen
Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Oh geeze. How should I pay for this? Walk me off the ledge
Replies: 52
Views: 6693

Re: Oh geeze. How should I pay for this? Walk me off the ledge

We have friends who recently had a home birth with a mid-wife present. The cost was nominal. This scares me. Yes, most of the time the baby will turn out just fine. But if an emergency occurs during labor, and say an emergency c section is needed in the next 10 min to save the baby's life... What t...
by esteen
Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do I need bonds?
Replies: 10
Views: 921

Re: Do I need bonds?

Do you need them? No. Would it be better if you had them? Maybe... AA is a very individualized question that is hard to get at in one intro email. Excellent job doing a lot of reading - I would say keep it up and gradually form your opinion about where your risk tolerance lies. You can take free ris...