Search found 21 matches

by JOtar
Wed Nov 20, 2013 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Kicking the Bucket Strategy]
Replies: 56
Views: 7713

Re: [Kicking the Bucket Strategy]

Here is my reply to "staythecourse" Thank you for your critiques. Here is my reply: 1. Actually, it is the other way around, 40/60 to 50/50 is generally the optimum asset mix for these withdrawal rates, based on market history; aftcasting, i.e. using actual sequence of performance of stock...
by JOtar
Tue Nov 19, 2013 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau's Low Equities At Retirement
Replies: 43
Views: 13204

Re: Wade Pfau's Low Equities At Retirement

Are asking me what happens if you start 20% equity at age 65 then go to 50% equity at age 90? If so, the outcome: The probability of portfolio depletion: At age 90: 10%, at age 95: 35% The problem with most academics is that they still do not understand (and as such, they overestimate) the effect of...
by JOtar
Tue Nov 19, 2013 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau's Low Equities At Retirement
Replies: 43
Views: 13204

Re: Wade Pfau's Low Equities At Retirement

Beware of all new findings, especially if it does not make sense in your guts. Let's look at two scenarios: 1. We have a 65 year old with a $100,000 portfolio. He takes out $4,500 /year at age 65 and then increases this amount by CPI until age 95. His asset allocation is 35% in S&P500 and 65% in...
by JOtar
Mon Oct 28, 2013 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Decumulation Phase
Replies: 138
Views: 57808

Re: The Decumulation Phase

I would love to come to Philadelphia in Oct 2014 and meet everyone.
by JOtar
Mon Oct 28, 2013 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The cult of PE10 - so what?
Replies: 99
Views: 8797

Re: The cult of PE10 - so what?

While PE10 might be important concept, it mostly applies to accumulation portfolios. Thousands are retiring every day, and its impact is a lot more severe to distribution portfolios, as you are withdrawing from assets. Several years ago (June 2007) I wrote an article that looks at the correlation be...
by JOtar
Mon Oct 28, 2013 12:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SWR, early retirement question
Replies: 13
Views: 1877

Re: SWR, early retirement question

If you want $80,000/year, indexed to CPI, with a probability of depletion not exceeding 5% at age 92, using historical data only (i.e. using "aftcast" as opposed to "forecast"/"simulations"), then you would need about $2,600,000 at age 53. Here is the link for the asset...
by JOtar
Sun Oct 27, 2013 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Decumulation Phase
Replies: 138
Views: 57808

Re: The Decumulation Phase

Verde wrote: "You ignore the variability of life expectancy. Milevsky incorporates both in his formula – leading to a much more intelligent answer. " Yes, I agree,it is a much more intelligent answer, only if the retiree dies at the age of average life expectancy. How would a financial pla...
by JOtar
Sun Oct 27, 2013 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Kicking the Bucket Strategy]
Replies: 56
Views: 7713

[Kicking the Bucket Strategy]

FYI - This was posted originally in Retirees: bucket versus non bucket withdrawal , moved into a stand-alone thread. --admin LadyGeek] I have recently written a CEU course article for a financial magazine. If you are interested, here is the link: http://www.advisor.ca/continuing-education/kicking-t...
by JOtar
Tue Apr 30, 2013 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of INFLATION Risk
Replies: 42
Views: 4145

Re: Sequence of INFLATION Risk

I recently updated my white paper on determinants of distribution portfolios, which includes the sequence of inflation with more updated data. [url]http://www.retirementoptimizer.com/Whitepapers/OtarDPG.pdf[/url] You can also download the green (non-printable) version of my recent article on Sequenc...
by JOtar
Tue Dec 27, 2011 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of INFLATION Risk
Replies: 42
Views: 4145

Re: Sequence of INFLATION Risk

I first wrote about the sequence of returns risk in December 2000 in a local magazine article, then in the Financial Planning magazine in May 2002 (both went on winning CFP-Board article awards) and in my 2001 book ("High Expectations and False Dreams", Figure 9, page 28). Subsequently, af...
by JOtar
Mon Oct 03, 2011 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Stock Market or S &P 500 per Jim Otar
Replies: 9
Views: 3381

Just to answer the question above about why I used the indices that I used in my book "Unveiling the Retirement Myth": When I do "aftcasting" that might depict thirty or forty years of time horizon, I cannot use a data set that has a history less than twice of that time horizon; ...
by JOtar
Sat May 28, 2011 9:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Perpetual Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 8
Views: 3206

Perpetual Withdrawal Rates

Hi,

I just posted the first draft of my recent whitepaper "Perpetual Withdrawal Rates for Foundations, Endowments and Charitable Trusts: A Non-Gaussian Analysis"
Here is the link:

[/url]http://retirementoptimizer.com/Whitepapers/PerpDist.pdf
[/url]

Enjoy it,
Jim Otar
Aftcast.com
by JOtar
Mon Jan 31, 2011 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Decumulation Phase
Replies: 138
Views: 57808

[quote="Bongleur"]Otar seems to be on the same page (or reading from?) Milevsky: > I wrote about the asset to withdrawal ratio of 30 for a 30-year retirement time horizon in 2001 in my book "High Expectations and False Dreams - One Hundred Years of Stock Market History applied to Reti...
by JOtar
Wed Dec 22, 2010 5:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Decumulation Phase
Replies: 138
Views: 57808

Due to the popular demand, and to celebrate the festive season a bit longer, I extended the free download until January 9th/ 2011. Enjoy it.
Jim Otar
[url]www.retirementoptimizer.com[/url]
by JOtar
Sat Sep 05, 2009 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When you were/are young...
Replies: 60
Views: 9076

I did not need to run aftcasting, I just used data from my book to keep it simple. Here is my answer to the "Mid-Life Growth" discussion. ---------------------- There was a question above about what percentage of your income required you need to save during the midlife growth stage. The st...
by JOtar
Sat Sep 05, 2009 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Decumulation Phase
Replies: 138
Views: 57808

The Decumulation Phase

Feel free to use my calculator to optimize the asset mix based on actual market history since 1900, it takes about 10 seconds in total in my equipment. It includes all your cash flow in/out, probability of depletion, soonest age of portfolio depletion, median/unlucky portfolio values for a range of ...
by JOtar
Wed Sep 02, 2009 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Decumulation Phase
Replies: 138
Views: 57808

The Decumulation Phase

Very interesting comments above. 1. RMD question/comments. I think HueyLD summed it up extremely well. No need to add another word from me. 2. Trinity study, or any other studies: I ignore (and throw away) any academic study that: A. uses some kind of simulator, Monte Carlo or otherwise, B. uses &qu...
by JOtar
Tue Aug 25, 2009 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Decumulation Phase
Replies: 138
Views: 57808

The Decumulation Phase

On the comment about adjusting income down: Yes, you are right. Just because you do the zone analysis at age 65 does not mean you can then take the same income for the rest of your life. As I mentioned in Chapters 42-44, you need to review your zones periodically and make necessary adjustments for t...
by JOtar
Tue Aug 25, 2009 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Decumulation Phase
Replies: 138
Views: 57808

The Decumulation Phase

On the comment about the risk of the insurance company going under: Depending how deep you are in the red zone, the probability of running out of money holding an investment portfolio generally -at reasonable withdrawal rates- is 40% and higher. (about 45% at 5% initial withdrawal rate, 80% at 6% ev...
by JOtar
Tue Aug 25, 2009 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Decumulation Phase
Replies: 138
Views: 57808

The Decumulation Phase

Though the table 20.5 is a puzzle to me. It deals with the survivability of a portfolio that has a mandated distribution, IE MRD. To paraphrase: If the MRD is less than the SWR (sustainable withdrawal rate) Impact on the portfolio: Lucky = Significant Medium = significant Unlucky = significant If y...
by JOtar
Sun Aug 23, 2009 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Decumulation Phase
Replies: 138
Views: 57808

Wow, I did not think I would get this much response. I am very pleased. Thank you for all your comments. Yes, the hosting server is congested somewhat due to the overwhelming response. I apologize for that, but there is not much I can do about it. Here are some hints: -Please download only once and ...

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