Search found 414 matches

by OkieIndexer
Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a bear market, anyway? Bulls, bears, recessions, perceptions
Replies: 1
Views: 267

What is a bear market, anyway? Bulls, bears, recessions, perceptions

https://medium.com/@justusjp/bulls-bears-recessions-perceptions-35bea0f4060d Bear Markets: arguing about fractions of a percent What exactly is a bear market anyway? A drop of 20% seems to become the Common Wisdom™. A drop of 15% is just a “correction” and not a “bear”. But what about a drop of 18%?...
by OkieIndexer
Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to Minimize Your Emergency Care Expenses
Replies: 284
Views: 69543

Re: How to Minimize Your Emergency Care Expenses

In my health insurance policy I see some procedures require "pre approval" to be covered. They aren't just elective things either. Does the hospital usually check your insurance and get pre approval when necessary without you asking? What if you're not in a condition to ask for pre approval, e.g.unc...
by OkieIndexer
Tue Jan 08, 2019 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard to stop accepting purchases in Leveraged or Inverse mutual funds]
Replies: 145
Views: 8691

Re: [Vanguard to stop accepting purchases in Leveraged or Inverse mutual funds]

About 13 years too late. Leveraged ETFs/mutual funds are evil.

Yes, evil.
by OkieIndexer
Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we officially in bear market ?
Replies: 79
Views: 9840

Re: Are we officially in bear market ?

We're not in a bear market because the S&P 500 hasn't closed at a -20% loss, on a closing price basis. We haven't had a bear market since 2008-09.
by OkieIndexer
Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard Minimum Investment Cuts Overdue"
Replies: 47
Views: 4307

Re: "Vanguard Minimum Investment Cuts Overdue"

I wish Vanguard would cut the minimum investment amount for VUSXX (Treasury Money Market Fund) down from $50,000 to at least $25,000 or lower.
by OkieIndexer
Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?
Replies: 148
Views: 9389

Re: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?

A portfolio with a high min volatility (Low Beta) allocation would have more market risk, but equities are a good hedge against inflation. So less risk from that angle. Equities protect reasonably well against hyperinflation (like 1000% a year inflation), but they tend to do poorly during merely "h...
by OkieIndexer
Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Funds Still Relevant in a Simple Portfolio?
Replies: 74
Views: 5130

Re: International Funds Still Relevant in a Simple Portfolio?

Historically since 1971 it's depended mostly on what happens with Japan stocks, and at this point China stocks too. From 1971-1994 (24 years!) World Ex-U.S. outperformed the S&P 500 by about 1% annualized due mostly to Japan's big bull run. Since 1995 international has underperformed, again due most...
by OkieIndexer
Thu Dec 27, 2018 3:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nuveen Strategic Municipal Opportunities Fund - 2.94% TAX FREE?
Replies: 16
Views: 1207

Re: Nuveen Strategic Municipal Opportunities Fund - 2.94% TAX FREE?

smarcus3 wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 12:03 am
There's never a free lunch.

If it's too good to be true it's too good to be true
I thought diversification was a free lunch? Or at least a free breakfast?
by OkieIndexer
Wed Dec 26, 2018 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QE, massive crash, Dow 3000?
Replies: 39
Views: 5857

Re: QE, massive crash, Dow 3000?

Gregory Manarino, haha! In his YouTube videos I think he's sitting there in his Mom's basement in his shirt and tie...and underwear. :mrgreen:
by OkieIndexer
Wed Dec 26, 2018 2:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What have you learned this year
Replies: 90
Views: 6969

Re: What have your learned this year

That I'm still not good at calling the bottom. I thought it was around Halloween, about 10% ago. Also, that my Mom Indicator isn't perfect. Previously, whenever my mom freaked out about stocks was the exact bottom of the market. Well, this time she finally freaked out around Thanksgiving, later than...
by OkieIndexer
Mon Dec 24, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why didn't the market crash in ~1981?
Replies: 8
Views: 911

Re: Why didn't the market crash in ~1981?

My grandmother locked in some of those really high rate CDs back then. Sale of the century!
by OkieIndexer
Sun Dec 23, 2018 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Failure should be pro-rated by year
Replies: 10
Views: 994

Re: Portfolio Failure should be pro-rated by year

I think a good, simple rule of thumb is if your portfolio is down to less than 15x annual withdrawals before age 75, you need to do something...not cut risk or change the portfolio if it was thoughtfully designed in the first place, but significantly reduce living expenses, get another income stream...
by OkieIndexer
Sun Dec 23, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Preparing for the bounce
Replies: 60
Views: 9062

Re: Preparing for the bounce

Way too many gleeful posts cheering further declines and boasting about buying on sale. I have no idea what the market will do in the future, but I don't think we have capitulation yet. But, you don't really need capitulation if this just garden variety correction as opposed to more sustained downt...
by OkieIndexer
Sun Dec 23, 2018 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why didn't the market crash in ~1981?
Replies: 8
Views: 911

Re: Why didn't the market crash in ~1981?

It was partly because the market was already at a single digit PE10 at the start of the bear in Nov. '80, and in '82 the rapidly falling interest rates and inflation helped put the brakes on the market drop and reverse the decline in summer '82 once the market realized the economy was going to impro...
by OkieIndexer
Sat Dec 22, 2018 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All the "should I be 100% stocks" threads over the last year.
Replies: 175
Views: 11964

Re: All the "should I be 100% stocks" threads over the last year.

I'm man enough to admit I posted a "Why not 100% Emerging Markets?" thread here back in late 2007 when Emerging Markets had been in a massive bull market for 5 years and I was a 26 year old who had been investing less than 2 years at the time. I ALMOST (almost!) put my entire IRA in the FXI China ET...
by OkieIndexer
Wed Dec 19, 2018 7:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I do a tax loss harvest?
Replies: 6
Views: 406

Re: Can I do a tax loss harvest?

The Wiki said an automatic div reinvestment could fall afoul of the 30 day before or after rule. The English language is glorious, isn't it? Someone should re-write that sentence of the Wiki because it is causing lots of problems. What do you mean? Here's what the Wiki says: "Reinvestment of divide...
by OkieIndexer
Wed Dec 19, 2018 7:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I do a tax loss harvest?
Replies: 6
Views: 406

Re: Can I do a tax loss harvest?

Just make sure you sell the shares purchased on 12/14/2018, too. What did you do with the dividends paid in June and September of 2018? I'm confused. I thought the rule was you couldn't buy shares 30 days before or after selling for the loss, so why doesn't the 12/14/18 purchase disqualify it? The ...
by OkieIndexer
Wed Dec 19, 2018 6:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I do a tax loss harvest?
Replies: 6
Views: 406

Can I do a tax loss harvest?

I have shares of VFIAX Vanguard 500 fund with the following unrealized gains/losses info as of today's close: Date acquired (covered shares) 05/31/2018 –$1,109.31 12/14/2018 –$5.64 The 12/14/18 was the automatically reinvested quarterly dividend. Can I do a TLH on the 5/31/18 loss right now? Or do I...
by OkieIndexer
Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are some non-doomsday scenarios where buy and hold index fund equities fails in the long run
Replies: 27
Views: 3070

Re: What are some non-doomsday scenarios where buy and hold index fund equities fails in the long run

The Permanent Portfolio is theoretically supposed to be good for any market environment. Maybe add a dash of cryptos, a sprinkle of REITS, and TIPS to taste.
by OkieIndexer
Tue Dec 18, 2018 6:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio
Replies: 141
Views: 30734

Re: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio

"TIPS to taste"

I like that phrase. :P A dash of TIPS, a sprinkle of REITS, and a fine Chianti. :mrgreen:
by OkieIndexer
Tue Dec 18, 2018 6:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do trading curbs make sense?
Replies: 9
Views: 677

Re: Do trading curbs make sense?

I always wondered why they didn't have trading curbs when the market goes up. (Well, not really, traders would grab the nearest pitchforks and torches if the market was shut down because stocks had a stellar day.) What problems would that prevent? The market went up 11% on October 13, 2008 (the big...
by OkieIndexer
Mon Dec 17, 2018 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding "risk tolerance"
Replies: 19
Views: 1414

Re: Understanding "risk tolerance"

One thing I've noticed on Bogleheads over the past 10+ years is almost everyone assumes 50% is basically the maximum the market can drop. Not true at all. The German stock market dropped 73% from 2000-2003, the UK market dropped 70% in 1972-74, Japan dropped more than 60% multiple times since 1990, ...
by OkieIndexer
Fri Dec 14, 2018 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Academic Argument for Expensive Mutual Funds"
Replies: 13
Views: 1208

Re: "The Academic Argument for Expensive Mutual Funds"

Last-ditch effort to save the actively managed fund industry? :mrgreen:
by OkieIndexer
Fri Dec 14, 2018 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the worst 30 year rolling return in history? Could 2000-2030 be worse?
Replies: 20
Views: 2753

Re: What is the worst 30 year rolling return in history? Could 2000-2030 be worse?

It could definitely be the worst 30 year period ever, although history shows you can't really use starting PE10 to make that judgment over such a long period. The worst 30 year real total return for U.S. stocks was 1.5% annualized from June 1902-June 1932 according to Shiller data. PE10 in June 1902...
by OkieIndexer
Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the 2008 recession help avoid severity of the next recession?
Replies: 40
Views: 2609

Re: Will the 2008 recession help avoid severity of the next recession?

I don't know if that theory will hold up based on history, but hopefully it will. The 1937 recession was very severe after the 1929-33 Depression, and the 1981-82 recession was more severe than the severe 1973-74 recession. 1969-70 recession was pretty rough, 1973-74 was the worst since 1937-38, and...
by OkieIndexer
Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any market that is not inflated?
Replies: 58
Views: 3852

Re: Is there any market that is not inflated?

Based on my analysis of flattening yield curves and Shiller PE 10, I would say the U.S. stock market and economic cycle is in a similar position as 1964, Jan. 1998, and Dec. 2005. So at least be ready for any of those scenarios with U.S. stocks. Early 1973, June 1978, and Dec. 1988 were also similar...
by OkieIndexer
Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 249
Views: 20603

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

In 2008 I was 27 and had been investing for 2 years. From Nov. 2008-July 2009, I felt like the ONLY reasonably safe place to park money was in 1-month T-Bills. Not a bank savings account (ANY bank). It seemed like a 1930s deflationary Depression Part 2 was absolutely a possibility, even likely. Even...
by OkieIndexer
Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value: 15 years of underperforming
Replies: 143
Views: 11856

Re: Small Value: 15 years of underperforming

The discussion points on this thread are taking on an eerie resemblance to the "Final, Definitive" thread on this subject... https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=96441 Oh man, the first post in that thread is hilarious. It pretty much sums up the Bogleheads forum in general. :mrgreen:
by OkieIndexer
Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worst investing year ever....
Replies: 103
Views: 17573

Re: Worst investing year ever....

2017 was more odd due to the lack of volatility. Yeah, I think 2017 was actually the least volatile year in the history of the Dow and S&P 500. 1995 came close, but even that year was slightly more squiggly on the chart. I believe that 2017 was the only calendar year in history where stocks finishe...
by OkieIndexer
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?
Replies: 38
Views: 2961

Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Around 800-1500 on the S&P 500, and without all the QE and removal of "mark to market" for the big banks, that's probably where we would be right now.
by OkieIndexer
Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's Making the Case for Gold
Replies: 153
Views: 13172

Re: Barron's Making the Case for Gold

I wonder how gold would have performed during World War II if it had been freely traded like now?
by OkieIndexer
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worst investing year ever....
Replies: 103
Views: 17573

Re: Worst investing year ever....

averagedude wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 8:55 pm
2017 was more odd due to the lack of volatility.
Yeah, I think 2017 was actually the least volatile year in the history of the Dow and S&P 500. 1995 came close, but even that year was slightly more squiggly on the chart.
by OkieIndexer
Wed Dec 05, 2018 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worst investing year ever....
Replies: 103
Views: 17573

Re: Worst investing year ever....

Yeah, this year doesn't seem much different to me than 2015 which also had flat stock and bond returns. Also 1994 and 1987.
by OkieIndexer
Mon Dec 03, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve = Inverted
Replies: 58
Views: 6218

Re: Yield Curve = Inverted

"First time inverted since 2007" is misleading. The actual first day the 3 yr and 5 yr inverted during that cycle was 12/20/2005 when the S&P was at 1260 (It peaked at 1565 almost 2 years later). The recession didn't start until 24 months after inversion in December 2007. Nevertheless, you could say...
by OkieIndexer
Mon Dec 03, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worst investing year ever....
Replies: 103
Views: 17573

Re: Worst investing year ever....

What 2008-09 taught was the importance of having safe bonds in the portfolio - credit risk free fixed income instruments. The only thing that went up. That was basically the only form of diversification that worked. To top it off for most Americans their house fell by 20-50% in value? I doubt peopl...
by OkieIndexer
Mon Dec 03, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses
Replies: 1528
Views: 245757

Re: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses

After hanging out here for 11 years, I don't think there's ever a final, definitive thread on anything. :mrgreen:
by OkieIndexer
Sat Dec 01, 2018 8:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much will my T-Note be worth?
Replies: 14
Views: 1084

Re: How much will my T-Note be worth?

The first formula is how the interest is determined. Here the yield is a quantity derived/calculated using the interest and principal among its input variables/arguments/factors. If one neglects the (probably sub-penny) compounding in a 28 day period, then the yield arithmetic does reduce to 29.84/...
by OkieIndexer
Sat Dec 01, 2018 7:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much will my T-Note be worth?
Replies: 14
Views: 1084

Re: How much will my T-Note be worth?

Is this the correct formula to calculate how much I would receive when I buy a T-bill on Vanguard's site (or elsewhere)? (Coupon x pay frequency (i.e. semiannual is 0.5) x face value) - accrued interest + (face value - principal) = total interest you will receive in $ Example: Yield to Maturity: 2.0...
by OkieIndexer
Fri Nov 30, 2018 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova
Replies: 92
Views: 14303

Re: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova

I feel like we're in late 1998 right now, as far as future 10-15 year returns go. But who knows.
by OkieIndexer
Fri Nov 30, 2018 5:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much will my T-Note be worth?
Replies: 14
Views: 1084

Re: How much will my T-Note be worth?

Slightly over the purchase price it seems like. But why bother? Just buy a 4 week T-bill instead. On the Auction screen, there's a Buy button next to 3 month, 6 mo., and 1 year T-bills, but nothing next to 1 month and 2 month, so I guess I have to buy on the Secondary market? Auction Open for 1 and...
by OkieIndexer
Fri Nov 30, 2018 5:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much will my T-Note be worth?
Replies: 14
Views: 1084

Re: How much will my T-Note be worth?

If I buy a T-Note today on the Vanguard site that has maturity date 12/31/2018, settlement date 12/3/18, face value $19,000, Principal $18,991.84, Accrued interest $120.82, Accrued no. of days 156, Net amount $19,112.66, price 99.957, yield to maturity and yield to worst 2.053, coupon 1.50, pay fre...
by OkieIndexer
Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much will my T-Note be worth?
Replies: 14
Views: 1084

Re: How much will my T-Note be worth?

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:53 pm
Slightly over the purchase price it seems like. But why bother? Just buy a 4 week T-bill instead.
Will it be about $33.13 interest, i.e. $19,033.13 on 12/31/18? I'm just trying to understand how to calculate it. Do I just take yield to maturity 2.053% divided by 365 times 31 days?
by OkieIndexer
Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much will my T-Note be worth?
Replies: 14
Views: 1084

How much will my T-Note be worth?

If I buy a T-Note today on the Vanguard site that has maturity date 12/31/2018, settlement date 12/3/18, face value $19,000, Principal $18,991.84, Accrued interest $120.82, Accrued no. of days 156, Net amount $19,112.66, price 99.957, yield to maturity and yield to worst 2.053, coupon 1.50, pay freq...
by OkieIndexer
Sun Jul 15, 2018 1:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Credit Card Song (1974)
Replies: 2
Views: 514

The Credit Card Song (1974)

This was a top 10 country hit in 1974, "The Credit Card Song" by Dick Feller. A personal finance time capsule.

For the youngsters: yes, computers existed in 1974. :wink:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5pTGf6Yw-1g
by OkieIndexer
Thu Mar 01, 2018 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Money Market Funds
Replies: 12
Views: 2670

Treasury Money Market Funds

Are there any Treasury money market funds that are 100% T-bills, other than Vanguard's fund? I'm having a hard time finding one. Usually they have stuff like repurchase agreements "under the hood."
by OkieIndexer
Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What the 1987 crash looked like 5 minutes by 5 minutes
Replies: 9
Views: 1486

What the 1987 crash looked like 5 minutes by 5 minutes

I have a Tradestation account, so I can pull up minute-by-minute index trading charts back to the early 1980s. Below is a downloadable picture of what the 1987 crash (10/19/87) looked like on a 5 minute chart (1 "candlestick" every 5 minutes) on Oct 19, 1987 and the morning of Oct. 20. I've also inc...
by OkieIndexer
Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inverse VIX ETN down 80% after hours
Replies: 42
Views: 6043

Re: Inverse VIX ETN down 80% after hours

Here are a couple threads from the past couple of years where folks were suggesting using XIV and TLT/BIL to substitute for an S&P 500 fund. Unfortunately, XIV has been "exterminated" now at a near-total loss ( https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-06/credit-suisse-terminates-xiv). The lesson here,...
by OkieIndexer
Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inverse VIX ETN down 80% after hours
Replies: 42
Views: 6043

Re: Inverse VIX ETN down 80% after hours

Credit Suisse "terminates" XIV...I notice SVXY and ZIV aren't trading today either, so I wonder what will happen with those. As far as I know, SVXY, being an ETF, doesn't have a termination clause in the prospectus.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02- ... inates-xiv
by OkieIndexer
Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inverse VIX ETN down 80% after hours
Replies: 42
Views: 6043

Short VIX ETN (XIV), $1.62 billion in assets, will likely be liquidated tomorrow at $4.22 (-96% loss in one day)

[merged into here --moderator triceratop] The Velocity Shares site (http://www.velocitysharesetns.com/XIV) shows that XIV’s indicative value is tracked by ticker XIVIV (XIV Indicative Value). That indicative value was down 96% to $4.22 on the day. If you read the XIV prospectus (page 45) on the Vel...