Search found 370 matches

by OkieIndexer
Sun Jul 15, 2018 1:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Credit Card Song (1974)
Replies: 2
Views: 458

The Credit Card Song (1974)

This was a top 10 country hit in 1974, "The Credit Card Song" by Dick Feller. A personal finance time capsule.

For the youngsters: yes, computers existed in 1974. :wink:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5pTGf6Yw-1g
by OkieIndexer
Thu Mar 01, 2018 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Money Market Funds
Replies: 12
Views: 2223

Treasury Money Market Funds

Are there any Treasury money market funds that are 100% T-bills, other than Vanguard's fund? I'm having a hard time finding one. Usually they have stuff like repurchase agreements "under the hood."
by OkieIndexer
Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What the 1987 crash looked like 5 minutes by 5 minutes
Replies: 9
Views: 1415

What the 1987 crash looked like 5 minutes by 5 minutes

I have a Tradestation account, so I can pull up minute-by-minute index trading charts back to the early 1980s. Below is a downloadable picture of what the 1987 crash (10/19/87) looked like on a 5 minute chart (1 "candlestick" every 5 minutes) on Oct 19, 1987 and the morning of Oct. 20. I've also inc...
by OkieIndexer
Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inverse VIX ETN down 80% after hours
Replies: 42
Views: 5649

Re: Inverse VIX ETN down 80% after hours

Here are a couple threads from the past couple of years where folks were suggesting using XIV and TLT/BIL to substitute for an S&P 500 fund. Unfortunately, XIV has been "exterminated" now at a near-total loss ( https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-06/credit-suisse-terminates-xiv). The lesson here,...
by OkieIndexer
Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inverse VIX ETN down 80% after hours
Replies: 42
Views: 5649

Re: Inverse VIX ETN down 80% after hours

Credit Suisse "terminates" XIV...I notice SVXY and ZIV aren't trading today either, so I wonder what will happen with those. As far as I know, SVXY, being an ETF, doesn't have a termination clause in the prospectus.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02- ... inates-xiv
by OkieIndexer
Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inverse VIX ETN down 80% after hours
Replies: 42
Views: 5649

Short VIX ETN (XIV), $1.62 billion in assets, will likely be liquidated tomorrow at $4.22 (-96% loss in one day)

[merged into here --moderator triceratop] The Velocity Shares site (http://www.velocitysharesetns.com/XIV) shows that XIV’s indicative value is tracked by ticker XIVIV (XIV Indicative Value). That indicative value was down 96% to $4.22 on the day. If you read the XIV prospectus (page 45) on the Vel...
by OkieIndexer
Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inverse VIX ETN down 80% after hours
Replies: 42
Views: 5649

Re: Inverse VIX ETN down 80% after hours

SVXY is basically the ETF version, also down about -90% after hours. Interestingly, they both bottomed at exactly $10.00. Clearly they became very disconnected from what the actual VIX was doing. I've seen some threads on here suggesting an XIV and TLT mix as a buy and hold to substitute for the SPY...
by OkieIndexer
Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What the New York City subway looked like in 1980
Replies: 2
Views: 770

What the New York City subway looked like in 1980

Photographer Bruce Davidson took these photos of the New York City subway in 1980 when crime was far higher than nowadays. It's like a different world compared to the city now. It's interesting how so much graffiti was allowed on the subways back then. How did they do so much graffiti INSIDE the tra...
by OkieIndexer
Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Household Assets 1972-1982
Replies: 10
Views: 1894

Household Assets 1972-1982

After the 1973-74 bear market, basically households bailed out of equities and put that money towards savings accounts, CDs, paying down the mortgage, and money market accounts (when those debuted in the late 70s, since they kept up with inflation better than savings accounts and CDs). I compiled so...
by OkieIndexer
Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you guys do in 1966 - 1980?
Replies: 34
Views: 3628

Re: How did you guys do in 1966 - 1980?

After the 1973-74 bear market, basically households bailed out of equities and put that money towards savings accounts, CDs, paying down the mortgage, and money market accounts (when those debuted in the late 70s, since they kept up with inflation better than savings accounts and CDs). I compiled so...
by OkieIndexer
Thu Jan 25, 2018 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diary of a Bear Market
Replies: 24
Views: 3149

Diary of a Bear Market

This is a diary of the 1973-74 bear market where the S&P 500 lost -48% in 21 months. Really interesting read, and would be good reading for new investors who haven't been through a bear before. The next best thing to living through a bear is reading about one, probably. https://www.kiplinger.com/art...
by OkieIndexer
Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Crash of May 1940
Replies: 3
Views: 711

The Crash of May 1940

Being a student of market history, I've always found the market crash of May 1940 very interesting. Here's what it looked like: https://preview.ibb.co/buZAGw/Fire_Shot_Capture_124_SPX_Stock_Charts_com_http_stockcharts_com_h_sc_ui.jpg The S&P 90 (predecessor of the S&P 500) index above crashed -25% (...
by OkieIndexer
Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Leveraged ETF of ETFs Targets Retirees Seeking 7% Return
Replies: 10
Views: 1438

Re: New Leveraged ETF of ETFs Targets Retirees Seeking 7% Return

I call this an example of an "investment" that is sold, not bought.
by OkieIndexer
Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Leveraged ETF of ETFs Targets Retirees Seeking 7% Return
Replies: 10
Views: 1438

New Leveraged ETF of ETFs Targets Retirees Seeking 7% Return

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-16/new-leveraged-etf-of-etfs-targets-retirees-seeking-7-return "Leverage” and “retirement” are two words you don’t normally hear together, but that’s exactly the combination one new exchange-traded fund is cooking up. The Strategy Shares NASDAQ 7 HANDL...
by OkieIndexer
Wed Jan 17, 2018 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years
Replies: 111
Views: 15359

Re: 70% chance of correction according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years

Even 20% down just puts us back to 2016 prices. Reminds me of the '87 crash. Even after the -35% crash in 6 weeks for the S&P 500 (it was actually a -45% intraday crash for the Dow futures in only 6 weeks time), it only took the market down to March 1986 levels. And two DAYS later, it was back to J...
by OkieIndexer
Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years
Replies: 111
Views: 15359

Re: 70% chance of correction according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years

Isn’t it unusual to have a year when the stock market doesn’t have a 10% correction? Also, why is it called a correction. If the price goes up again isn’t it a mistake? Not unusual at all to have a year with no 10% correction, but quite unusual to have a year like last year with no 3% drop (S&P 500...
by OkieIndexer
Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years
Replies: 111
Views: 15359

Re: 70% chance of correction according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years

Ah, but it's possible the 10% correction could start 20% higher than where we are now. :wink:
by OkieIndexer
Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was 2017 a unique year for the stock market?
Replies: 11
Views: 2265

Re: Was 2017 a unique year for the stock market?

Yes, it was a unique year. There's been a total lack of volatility in the market since Nov. 2016. We haven't had even a 3% drop in the S&P 500 since Nov. 2016, 13.5 months now. The previous record for "no 3% drop" was Jan. 1995-Jan. 1996, 12 months, which of course was followed by several strong yea...
by OkieIndexer
Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets equities went sideways for 50 years 1920-70
Replies: 24
Views: 2423

Emerging Markets equities went sideways for 50 years 1920-70

Sobering. :shock: And it was longer than that when you include the 1917 Communist takeover in Russia which made their stock market go to zero. It's a lesson not to get too excited about emerging markets. https://image.ibb.co/dmbCj6/EM.jpg Page 12: http://www.merrilledge.com/publish/content/applicati...
by OkieIndexer
Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Future US Equity Returns: A Best-Case Upper Limit”
Replies: 20
Views: 1951

Re: “Future US Equity Returns: A Best-Case Upper Limit”

Expecting historic returns given the current valuations over the next decade seems very, very optimistic. It could happen, but the likelihood, on the basis of historical data, seems very low. Well, there's always the chance we could have Japan 1990-like valuations a decade from now, which would mak...
by OkieIndexer
Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Future US Equity Returns: A Best-Case Upper Limit”
Replies: 20
Views: 1951

Re: “Future US Equity Returns: A Best-Case Upper Limit”

In October 1929 the "worst case lower limit" was basically considered to be around Dow 300. “Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels (Dow 341). I expect to see the stock market a good de...
by OkieIndexer
Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd
Replies: 94
Views: 8282

Re: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd

Here's all you need to know (from the chart that was posted): The average Bull Market period lasted 9.0 years with an average cumulative total return of 480%. The average Bear Market period lasted 1.4 years with an average cumulative loss of -41% Why would you assume that a big corporate tax cut wo...
by OkieIndexer
Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 140
Views: 20687

Re: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

Tootsie Roll?? :P Who woulda thunk? I didn't even know that was an individual company. I thought they were made by General Mills or Nestle or something.
by OkieIndexer
Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd
Replies: 94
Views: 8282

Re: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd

Januarys seem like they have a tendency to often be either really strong or really negative. Just 2 years ago Jan. 2016 was the worst January for the market since January 2009. They both ended up being good years for equities.
by OkieIndexer
Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd
Replies: 94
Views: 8282

Re: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd

The S&P 500 is up 4.7% so far this month including today, which is quite a bit but nothing compared to the +13.2% from January 1987. The first 11 trading days of Jan. '87 were already up +10% compared to +4.7% now. :shock: The month's only half over though.
by OkieIndexer
Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Mark Cuban -] "Diversification is for idiots..."
Replies: 26
Views: 4050

Re: Diversification is for idiots...

He's never had to make money the "hard way" investing long-term. He basically struck it rich with a dot-com in the late 90s (his company Broadcast.com)...and the rest was history.
by OkieIndexer
Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Mark Cuban -] "Diversification is for idiots..."
Replies: 26
Views: 4050

Re: Diversification is for idiots...

Diversification is one of the few "free lunches" in investing. It's for smart people. :beer In the autumn 2008 financial crisis (specifically the acute part post-Lehman through mid November), cash (30-day T-bills specifically, and bank savings/CDs and savings bonds) was the ONLY asset that didn't ta...
by OkieIndexer
Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 107
Views: 20231

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

Physical real estate or land that you own, especially if it has a pretty reliable income stream like rental property, is a true alternative investment. As the paper showed, rental property can even have higher returns than the stock market in some scenarios. My Depression-era grandmother (born in 19...
by OkieIndexer
Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chained CPI Impact
Replies: 8
Views: 1059

Re: Chained CPI Impact

Somewhat off-topic, but the only thing that matters for one's retirement portfolio as far as inflation goes is your personal inflation rate, e.g. the rise in your own personal expenses from year to year. The official CPI doesn't matter (aside from SS, pension, TIPS, etc. increases tied to the offici...
by OkieIndexer
Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kodakcoin
Replies: 101
Views: 9082

Re: Kodakcoin

"Utilising blockchain technology, the KodakOne platform will create an encrypted, digital ledger of rights ownership for photographers to register both new and archive work that they can then license within the platform ," Kodak explained. I am amazed at how much mis-information there is in this th...
by OkieIndexer
Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kodakcoin
Replies: 101
Views: 9082

Re: Kodakcoin

Didn't Kodak used to make cameras? LOL Whatever happened to them? :oops: They did, but their core business was the film and photo development technology. They tried to transition to digital cameras but too many others were selling the same or better technology. They also tried to make inkjet printe...
by OkieIndexer
Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual investors, possible structural advantages
Replies: 10
Views: 875

Re: Individual investors, possible structural advantages

1) CDs - direct and/or brokered (possibly on the secondary market). May yield a bit more than similarly safe government bonds. Reasons: a) $250K of FDIC insurance is too little for biggest players. Big players may not want to pick up small secondary market brokered CDs. I'm not an expert in these -...
by OkieIndexer
Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Zimbabwe stock market acting strangely again
Replies: 15
Views: 2094

Zimbabwe stock market acting strangely again

Zimbabwe market giving Bitcoin a run for its money...:mrgreen: More than tripled in 2 months from Aug-Oct last year, then proceeded to plunge -57% in a WEEK ! :shock: https://preview.ibb.co/foRAE6/Fire_Shot_Capture_110_End_of_day_data_Country_MSCI_https_www_msci_com_end_of_day_data_country.jpg image...
by OkieIndexer
Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sequence of Return Risk impact on Retirement
Replies: 103
Views: 5443

Re: Sequence of Return Risk impact on Retirement

Bear market before retirement and bear market after retirement.

Next worse, bull market before retirement, bear market after retirement.
by OkieIndexer
Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kodakcoin
Replies: 101
Views: 9082

Re: Kodakcoin

Teague wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:50 pm
Didn't Paul Simon do a song about this way back when?

Are there any schemes combining multi-level marketing and cryptocurrency yet? If not, that must be next.
Packaging timeshares and bitcoin derivatives into CDOs? Lots of opportunities for financial innovation here. :mrgreen:
by OkieIndexer
Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bother with corporate bond funds instead of just U.S. Treasuries + Stock Index Fund/ETF?
Replies: 16
Views: 1136

Re: Why bother with corporate bond funds instead of just U.S. Treasuries + Stock Index Fund/ETF?

I'm not sure why high yield corporate bonds did so much better than stocks during the 1940s. Seems like most of the outperformance happened between 1940-42. Any ideas? Companies were not allowed to fail back then. Starting the chart at 5/31/40, this seems to be when corporate bonds really started t...
by OkieIndexer
Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bother with corporate bond funds instead of just U.S. Treasuries + Stock Index Fund/ETF?
Replies: 16
Views: 1136

Re: Why bother with corporate bond funds instead of just U.S. Treasuries + Stock Index Fund/ETF?

According to the Morningstar chart below, from Jan. 1939 - Dec. 1949, High Yield Corporate Bonds actually more than doubled the performance of U.S. Large Cap Blend (S&P 500 basically). The DFA returns calculator tells me that Intermediate Treasuries returned 22% during this period. So owning High Yi...
by OkieIndexer
Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin ETF Proposals Withdrawn After SEC Pushback
Replies: 1
Views: 407

Re: Bitcoin ETF Proposals Withdrawn After SEC Pushback

Yet notably, none of the proposed offerings would have held bitcoin directly – rather, their price movements would have been driven by changes in the still-nascent market for bitcoin futures... "Their price movements aren't based on bitcoin directly, but on hedged derivatives of derivatives (second...
by OkieIndexer
Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kodakcoin
Replies: 101
Views: 9082

Re: Kodakcoin

nisiprius wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:55 am
Maybe we all can actually get rich, this time.
Yes, somehow we can all get rich this time, and there won't be any inflation to completely offset it. Hmm...doesn't compute.
by OkieIndexer
Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kodakcoin
Replies: 101
Views: 9082

Re: Kodakcoin

nisiprius wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:55 am
New 'insane' ETF proposal for bitcoin generates worry on Wall Street
Direxion wants to introduce 2X leveraged and inverse Bitcoin ETFs. I am... speechless.
When 10% moves in 5 seconds just aren't enough action for you! :shock:
by OkieIndexer
Tue Jan 09, 2018 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Robo-Investors driving the market to insane levels?
Replies: 36
Views: 5612

Re: Are Robo-Investors driving the market to insane levels?

The thing that had been puzzling me lately was not the size of the market gains, but the total lack of volatility in the market since Nov. 2016. We haven't had even a 3% drop in the S&P 500 since Nov. 2016, 13.5 months now. The previous record for "no 3% drop" was Jan. 1995-Jan. 1996, 12 months, whi...
by OkieIndexer
Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Non Public-traded REIT nightmare continues
Replies: 18
Views: 3029

Re: Non Public-traded REIT nightmare continues

Sounds like they're almost as bad as timeshares.
by OkieIndexer
Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Intermediate Bond Fund Will Perform Best With Rising Rates
Replies: 13
Views: 2057

Re: Which Intermediate Bond Fund Will Perform Best With Rising Rates

Below I charted all the Vanguard intermediate bond funds from 7/31/2012 to 12/31/2013 , a period when the 10 year Treasury yield rose from 1.51% to 3.04%: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart.action?&t=XNAS:VWIUX®ion=usa&culture=en-US&cur=&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%2...
by OkieIndexer
Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contemplating a sector bet: India
Replies: 17
Views: 1797

Re: Contemplating a sector bet: India

If theoretically you lose all the play money, what happens then? Play money should be a once in a lifetime thing, where you set aside X dollars from your portfolio to "play with," and if you lose it all, no more playing for the rest of your life. Really "play money" is not a good idea, especially if...
by OkieIndexer
Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Term Bonds as Alternative Asset Class (Not Fixed Income)
Replies: 11
Views: 1186

Re: Long Term Bonds as Alternative Asset Class (Not Fixed Income)

I would say a true Alternative Investment is not a paper asset (e.g. ETF, mutual fund, Treasuries). It's something physical you own, such as rental property or land. Preferably something that generates pretty reliable income (again, rental property).
by OkieIndexer
Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forgot to make my $5500 contribution for 2018
Replies: 36
Views: 5038

Re: Forgot to make my $5500 contribution for 2018

"Best start since 1987" doesn't sound particularly promising, given what happened later that year. :shock: Anyway, I invested the IRA contribution today, but since the AA had gotten out of whack due to last year's stock gains, I ended up needing to invest the entire contribution in Total Bond to get...
by OkieIndexer
Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dot-com/blockchain bubble of the 1920s: Utility stocks
Replies: 15
Views: 1849

Re: The dot-com/blockchain bubble of the 1920s: Utility stocks

The "Utilities - Electric, Gas, etc. - Holding Companies" (such as Consolidated Edison, ticker symbol ED nowadays) index from the Cowles Stock Indexes 1871-1940 book went up 2,004% between 1920-Sept. 1929, only 9 years. In comparison, the Nasdaq Composite went up 1,322% between Jan. 1991-March 2000....
by OkieIndexer
Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dot-com/blockchain bubble of the 1920s: Utility stocks
Replies: 15
Views: 1849

The dot-com/blockchain bubble of the 1920s: Utility stocks

Prof. Robert Shiller published an interesting paper that examined what the Shiller P/E ratios (CAPEs) were for Industrials, Utilities, and Railroads from 1882-2012. Here are the results. Utilities were the dot-com/blockchain bubble of the 1920s...the CAPE peaked at 60! I guess that makes sense, sinc...
by OkieIndexer
Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Talk me out of a 60/40 AA
Replies: 76
Views: 9370

Re: Talk me out of a 60/40 AA

Historically, the earnings yield of the market has been a pretty good predictor of long-term (7-20 years, roughly) real returns. The earnings yield is simply the reciprocal of the P/E ratio. Currently the Shiller P/E ratio is 33, so the earnings yield of the S&P 500 right now is 1/33 = 3%. Thus over...
by OkieIndexer
Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did everyone in the early 80s have their money in CDs?
Replies: 77
Views: 6817

Re: Did everyone in the early 80s have their money in CDs?

I was to stupid to be investing, let alone understanding the value of compounding interest and the value of a guaranteed 15% return on a investment with basically zero risk. Never a time machine around when you need one. You've forgotten inflation. Again, a 15% return wasn't very good. Just as you'...