Search found 33 matches

by chem6022
Sun Jan 12, 2020 2:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 11919

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

FWIW. Big ERN latest SWR article Using Gold as a Hedge against Sequence Risk It's a good read. But at the end of the day, that article just proves it backtests well....which we all know. Wow, what a flawed analysis by ERN! His good gold out-performance depends entirely on the 1972 bear market line....
by chem6022
Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hidden liquidity risk with I-bonds
Replies: 43
Views: 4704

Re: Hidden liquidity risk with I-bonds

Problems to have. I can keep winning for up to 30 years if rates fall, but I can easily sell any time after a year if rates rise. Sounds like an awful investment.
by chem6022
Thu Oct 10, 2019 12:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Savings
Replies: 21
Views: 2161

Re: Savings

6d1v7x3 wrote:
Thu Oct 10, 2019 12:08 am
I'm sorry but what is an I Bond? Can you point me to any specific bonds that I should buy right now?
A.series I bond from the U.S. Treasury, which you can read more about at treasurydirect.gov. Very flexible, but mostly an inflation-protected government bond good for periods from 1 to 30 years.
by chem6022
Wed Oct 09, 2019 8:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 401 K match
Replies: 25
Views: 2433

Re: 401 K match

I think there is just some confusion here, likely even by the person you were talking to on the phone. "Salary Reduction Contribution" is just another name for "Elective Deferral Contribution". It reduces your salary for tax purposes so it's just the way 401k's work even without a match to defer tax...
by chem6022
Tue Oct 08, 2019 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation Driver
Replies: 13
Views: 1500

Re: Asset Allocation Driver

In hard to give general advice here, because there are two very different risk profiles as peoples porfolio's get very large. One set does what you describe and gets more conservative once they have won the game. But another set of people gets more aggressive as their wealth grows, with the logic be...
by chem6022
Wed Oct 02, 2019 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: maximum downturn
Replies: 16
Views: 2242

Re: maximum downturn

Here are the years around the 2007-2009, where portfolio visualizer shows a maximum drawdown just over 50% for both S&P 500 and total stock market (link). You can hover over the i hear max drawdown of click the drawdowns tab to see if was over a 16 month period.
by chem6022
Sun Sep 29, 2019 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Permanent Portfolio without cash allocation?
Replies: 65
Views: 5136

Re: Permanent Portfolio without cash allocation?

My personal take is that the data regarding gold since the unraveling of Bretton Woods is more relevant than when we were on the gold standard I don't know much about the subject so I'd like to ask a question. Why should gold's real return be different whether governments are using their own fiat c...
by chem6022
Sun Sep 29, 2019 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Naive long term treasury question
Replies: 4
Views: 642

Re: Naive long term treasury question

A bond fund is a lot like weighted bond ladder. A simple bond ladder is a just sequence of bonds maturing say 1 year apart. So if you had a bond ladder with bonds maturing every year from 6 to 30 years, that would have a duration of about 18 years. A long term bond fund will try to maintain that lon...
by chem6022
Sun Sep 29, 2019 12:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Value Is More Valuable
Replies: 76
Views: 5886

Re: When Value Is More Valuable

I'm actually tilted to small-cap value myself. However, the linked article is equivalent to 2+2=4. Mathematically certain but not very insightful. In particular, when a spread of a ratio with price in the numerator decreases, that is obviously very correlated with the price spread also decreasing, s...
by chem6022
Thu Sep 26, 2019 10:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest Rate Risk: Two Views
Replies: 126
Views: 9436

Re: Interest Rate Risk: Two Views

vineviz wrote:
Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:35 pm
There is no such strategy involved in a three-fund portfolio, except perhaps though blind luck.
It can be done with a three-fund, you just have to use a better stack: VT / VTIP / VGLT :P
by chem6022
Thu Sep 26, 2019 9:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirees - do you hold extra cash for a bear market?
Replies: 93
Views: 10218

Re: Retirees - do you hold extra cash for a bear market?

I plan to retire early with no pension, so a long way from SS and no backup plan. I always keep a 1-year emergency fund and that will not change. I'll then take one years worth of expenses out at my annual re-balance. Past that I can draw from a short-term TIPS ladder/fund, followed by long-term tre...
by chem6022
Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Favorite daily news feed? (international finance relevant)
Replies: 4
Views: 571

Re: Favorite daily news feed? (international finance relevant)

/dev/null is my favorite, but when I do accidentally look I just see /dev/random
by chem6022
Mon Sep 23, 2019 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest Rate Risk: Two Views
Replies: 126
Views: 9436

Re: Interest Rate Risk: Two Views

I hope someone can either show how my data is wrong or confirm it is correct. I would consider duration matching TIPS funds in retirement if it works, but by my calculations doesn't. I don't want to derail the the thread, but I found 2 errors in your calculations related to what applies to the end-...
by chem6022
Thu Sep 19, 2019 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do long term treasuries diversify an equity/treasury portfolio
Replies: 23
Views: 1804

Re: Why do long term treasuries diversify an equity/treasury portfolio

(I'm at risk now of arguing that gold/bitcoin would be what you want in this scenario for diversity, despite that I don't believe in either) The same for me. Gold proponents always overuse the 1972-1981 period to make their case, but it's hard to untangle how much that performance arose from relaxi...
by chem6022
Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do long term treasuries diversify an equity/treasury portfolio
Replies: 23
Views: 1804

Re: Why do long term treasuries diversify an equity/treasury portfolio

In a low inflation world, the fed raises rates when the economy is doing well and lowers them when economy suffers. So rates and prices are correlated leading to some negative bond price correlation. Seems to hold post Volker as inflation has been largely controlled. Could be in jeopardy if for inst...
by chem6022
Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12578
Views: 2179003

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Well I just finished dollar-cost averaging to my desired asset allocation. So I'm truly sorry for the upcoming crash!
by chem6022
Mon Sep 02, 2019 5:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm looking for your help figuring out how to help my Mom
Replies: 29
Views: 3047

Re: I'm looking for your help figuring out how to help my Mom

You may want to look into over 55 communities for your Mom as well. They generally trade lower entry costs for higher ongoing costs similar to you mobile home plan.
by chem6022
Sat Aug 31, 2019 5:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Make my investments as "safe" as possible. Retiring 12/31/2019
Replies: 20
Views: 3292

Re: Make my investments as "safe" as possible. Retiring 12/31/2019

I think what I'm hearing from the forum is screw the taxes, do the glide path even if the bulk of your money is in your taxable accounts? I definitely would not let the tax tail wag the dog here. Plus your taxes should go way down and with a conservative portfolio and low interest rates it likely w...
by chem6022
Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Make my investments as "safe" as possible. Retiring 12/31/2019
Replies: 20
Views: 3292

Re: Make my investments as "safe" as possible. Retiring 12/31/2019

Congratulations, you're where I hope to be in 3-10 years! I envy the time you'll have to explore and relax. At first, I was going to suggest some more complicated thing that looks more like what I been considering for my own plans. On the other hand, you definitely have a nice buffer and the desire ...
by chem6022
Fri Aug 16, 2019 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any retired person have stocks and cash I was thinking about a 70/30
Replies: 61
Views: 5093

Re: Any retired person have stocks and cash I was thinking about a 70/30

Honest question, wouldn't TIPS be even more conservative than cash for this purpose? Not necessarily - especially at real rates close to zero. The TIPS may well be under water when you want cash. Rates near zero are irrelevant, since rates can still go negative. Unexpected inflation is a bigger ris...
by chem6022
Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any retired person have stocks and cash I was thinking about a 70/30
Replies: 61
Views: 5093

Re: Any retired person have stocks and cash I was thinking about a 70/30

Honest question, wouldn't TIPS be even more conservative than cash for this purpose?
by chem6022
Thu Jul 04, 2019 4:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: ca muni tax free long or intermediate term?
Replies: 17
Views: 2470

Re: ca muni tax free long or intermediate term?

The spreadsheet below from another thread is great. Which fund is best varies over time much more than I thought. My guess is if you have the 50k VUSXX will be best for your situation. I use Kevin M's shared google spreadsheet. Make a copy and plug in your own marginal state and federal tax rate. Th...
by chem6022
Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing a windfall when the market is at “an all-time high?”
Replies: 33
Views: 4233

Re: Investing a windfall when the market is at “an all-time high?”

I've done both sides of DCA and lump-sum in the past, and both times they were wrong. DCA was painful because you end up being wrong many times in a row. Whereas lump-sum is really painful, but only once. Mostly I would advise to do the opposite of what I would do (j/k). Moral of the story is don t ...
by chem6022
Mon Jul 01, 2019 6:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: De-Accumulation methods appropriate for a couple without a significant pension
Replies: 12
Views: 1337

Re: De-Accumulation methods appropriate for a couple without a significant pension

How far down the rabbit hole do you want to go? Related to VPW is the more general time value of money or actuarial approach, discussed in this thread and the linked blog posts: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=274243#p4409339 Since then longinvest has added more capabilties to the V...
by chem6022
Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which TIP would you buy?
Replies: 8
Views: 787

Re: Which TIP would you buy?

Series I bonds look like a great deal right now up to their 10k limit. Past that limit I like the 7-10 year suggestion above as a nice fit to your stated goals.
by chem6022
Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What percentage of total portfolio in REIT's do you have? Why? . . Why not?
Replies: 229
Views: 18243

Re: What percentage of total portfolio in REIT's do you have? Why?

10% of total portfolio is in VNQ. The main reason is that I am in a VHCOL and rent. So this serves to expose me to the real estate market more like people who own their house in MCOL areas. In my mental model, this will also fund my down payment when I do buy a home. One other thing I have noticed i...
by chem6022
Mon Jun 10, 2019 2:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Perpetual Withdrawal Rates for 18 Portfolios
Replies: 50
Views: 5942

Re: Perpetual Withdrawal Rates for 18 Portfolios

I would be wary of any high gold percentage backtests in the 70s, as 40 prior years of fixed exchange due to the gold standard had just ended. Literally take any portfolio and swap in 5-10% gold and it will get a jump in this 18 year test.
by chem6022
Sat Jun 08, 2019 12:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are market downturns & crashes really driven by fear?
Replies: 23
Views: 1994

Re: Are market downturns & crashes really driven by fear?

1) A good crash usually starts with a new reality or realization by a large number of investors. Something fundamentally changes their outlook, like AlohaJoe refers to in the financial crisis. 2) The effect is amplified by "aware" investors. These people knew the game was afoot, but were still willi...
by chem6022
Mon Jun 03, 2019 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Buy & Hold Index Investors "need" people to actively invest?
Replies: 26
Views: 2351

Re: Do Buy & Hold Index Investors "need" people to actively invest?

adamthesmythe wrote:
Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:11 am
Personally I have a strong belief that there is an infinite reservoir of people who will believe they are smarter than the market.
Plus there will always remain a huge financial incentive to sell people actively managed services, to reap higher fees.
by chem6022
Sat Jun 01, 2019 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finding historical returns of a portfolio?
Replies: 7
Views: 416

Re: Finding historical returns of a portfolio?

Portfoliocharts.com can also be useful to get a better sense of variance and risk, but without the asset and ticker flexibility of portfolio visualizer.
by chem6022
Tue May 28, 2019 7:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Estimating "largest loss since 1926" and "# years with loss"
Replies: 24
Views: 2536

Re: Estimating "largest loss since 1926" and "# years with loss"

Cash is more like really short-term bonds (T-bills). But why guess when you can use this communities really great back testing spreadsheet?
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Simba%2 ... preadsheet
by chem6022
Fri May 24, 2019 2:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Looking to buy ETFs for the 1st time
Replies: 23
Views: 1674

Re: Looking to buy ETFs for the 1st time

It's better to trade during market hours when you can, because there can be odd bid/ask price action after hours and during the first and last few minutes of the trading day. However, another alternative when you just cannot trade during the day is setting up a limit order. Anything around the bid/a...
by chem6022
Thu May 23, 2019 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why will US or global stocks continue to grow in the future and forever?
Replies: 20
Views: 1246

Re: Why will US or global stocks continue to grow in the future and forever?

I cannot describe it better than J.L. Collins in his stock investing series: To appreciate why the Stock Market relentlessly rises requires an understanding of what we actually own with VTSAX. We own, quite literally, a piece of every publicly traded company in the USA. Stocks are not just little sl...