Bogleheads.org

baw703916

This makes sense. In gambling, assuming a non-biased coin/dice/roulette table/etc. each event has no time correlation with past or future events. So if you flip a coin heads 5 times in a row, the expectation value of the next flip remains 50% heads. But if a certain category of equities has a price ...

baw703916

...reinsurance doesn’t sell its product to retail customers and it doesn’t employee many, so it is overlooked by popular press stories that can choose instead to mention GEICO and Dairy Queen. I am looking forward to going to the annual meeting again this weekend. I’ve been going regularly since 20...

baw703916

Is there a reason not to just buy VTI, the ETF share class of Vanguard Total Stock Market? It has the same E/R as the VSTAX Admiral share class. For what it's worth I own it in my E-Trade account, and yes, you can set up automatic dividend reinvestment.

baw703916

After being more volatile than I would have expected the past couple weeks, the price of the company being acquired jumped substantially this morning (to >99% of the takeover price) and my sell order executed. In reading the new items, this coincided with the ending of the Hart Scott Rodino waiting ...

baw703916

Where did reinsurance go?

baw703916

A couple clarifications. 1) I regarded the investment in the company that's getting taken over as a semi-unique opportunity (a rare case where I have good reason to believe I "know more than the market"). That's not true of the acquiring company--there's no reason to thing I have any more insight in...

baw703916

Rick Ferri wrote: ↑
Wed Apr 11, 2018 11:27 am
What about those who serve in our Navy’s submarine fleet?

Hopefully, they're taking advantage of the TSP, with a generous helping of the G Fund.

baw703916

Thanks everyone for the replies! What's kind of interesting is the market price of the stock has actually fluctuated more than I might have expected this week (a couple %). Since there's no actual news regarding the merger and as Grt2bOutdoors observes, it seems pretty likely to happen, my guess is ...

baw703916

If it's Verifone, you should consider holding on until May 24th in case someone else makes a better offer, although the slight discount indicates that the market thinks that unlikely. It's actually not that one, it's a biotech being acquired by a Big Pharma company. It doesn't appear the merger wou...

baw703916

Good podcast from the White Coat Investor on this topic. https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/merger-arbitrage-with-peter-steinberg-md-podcast-43/ Thanks for posting the link! Although I'm more the counterparty from whom Dr. Steinberg (the guest featured in the podcast) might buy stock following the m...

baw703916

So several months ago I made a small investment in an individual stock (note: <1% of my portfolio, which is 95+% index funds). Recently, the company announced an agreement for a cash takeover by another company for roughly double the recent trading range. No, I'm not eschewing index funds! My questi...

baw703916

DanMahowny wrote: ↑
Fri Mar 30, 2018 7:31 pm
I don't buy that argument.

Jack Bogle is wrong.

Of course, I could be wrong. I'm wrong often- just ask my wife.

So, does your wife think Jack Bogle is wrong?

baw703916

There will always be some number of seven-year olds who outperform by luck.

baw703916

I worked for many years just south of Anacostia-Bolling (until about 2 years ago). I lived in Alexandria, and my commute was about 30 minutes--you can shorten it considerably by living closer. 1) The dominant traffic flow on the Wilson Bridge in the morning is into Virginia, and out of Virginia in t...

baw703916

I assume you meant to say "SEP" IRA (SEP stands for Simplified Employee Pension--it's often used for retirement contributions from self employment income or from a very small company). The short answer is you can convert it to a Roth IRA--I've done exactly that. It is perfectly possible to have a lo...

baw703916

1. Going beyond the octane requirements of your engine doesn't convey any additional benefit. Going below the requirements isn't recommended! 2. The way that the octane rating is defined means that the octane value of a mixture of fuels is just the weighted average (what an octane rating of X means ...

baw703916

Are there any other reasons why having an increased AGI (due to the interest on the Treasuries) might be undesirable? For example, not being able to make a Roth contribution. That's one thing that isn't accounted for in the equivalent yields math.

baw703916

What usually happens next is a lot of hyperventilating. Even on this board, though to a lesser extent.

baw703916

I'd somehow missed this when it was first posted.

Great news! Good job, FRTIB.

baw703916

Something interesting is happening in bond yields: after about a decade, the relative yields between tax-exempt and taxable bonds are returning to normal. Normally, one would expect that tax-exempt bonds would have lower yields than taxable ones, all else being equal, due to the tax benefit. This is...

baw703916

triceratop wrote: ↑
Fri Jan 26, 2018 6:54 pm
It seems patently crazy and absurd! But I've been lead to believe and heard many tales confirming that many humans do precisely this under a complex system known as "dating".

There hasn't been an equivalent of Bogle to offer indexing as a simpler and more profitable approach!

baw703916

Happy Birthday Taylor!!

Thanks for teaching many people important lessons about successful investing.

baw703916

I actually am using two different "L Funds" in my TSP account (L funds = TSP version of target date funds). Technically only one actually has a date: L2030 (about when I'll be retirement age). Until recently, I had much of the rest of my TSP in the G fund (I distribute assets over several types of a...

baw703916

Interesting... Although personally, I've never even called Vanguard on the phone. Everything has been accomplished online or in the mail. Unless they're going to offer a place where I can make cash deposits, medallion signature guarantees on securities, or free coffee/pastries while I chat with a r...

baw703916

Dottie57 wrote: ↑
Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:43 am
Me too. It was a family ritual to watch the show. I never really understood what he said and the market remained magical.

Where are the elves' yachts?

baw703916

2008 was a financial panic, but not an unprecedented one, and putting things in perspective a little bit made things pretty easy to deal with. Better man then me. I found it extremely stressful, but since I was young (still think I am) I knew it didn't matter in the long run. I would say those that...

baw703916

My problem with this article is it doesn't differentiate between active and passive strategies--it just says "mutual funds". I mean, Vanguard's TSM is a mutual fund. And, because it should closely mirror the performance of the market every year, while most funds will lag due to expenses, I'd expect ...

baw703916

Sometimes I wonder if these people are living on a different planet. 2008-09, 2011, and 15-16 weren't that emotionally stressful. Bogleheads and EMH provided me with a framework for putting things in context. 2008 was a financial panic, but not an unprecedented one, and putting things in perspective...

baw703916

The oldest multi-factor fund of which I am aware is PNC Multi-Factor Small-Cap Value C (PSVCX). According to Morningstar, its annualized 15-year return was 7.32%. During the same period, The S&P 500 Index return was 9.72% (with lower Standard Deviation). Taylor, I really don't think that's a fair c...

baw703916

I never bought a $5000 watch, in spite of the extreme peer pressure.

baw703916

VictoriaF wrote: ↑
Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:15 pm
Bitcoin is a ledger that contains a record of all transactions since its inception.

Victoria

Which makes it a little puzzling why hackers would demand payment for ransomeware in bitcoins. It's kind of like bank robbers stealing a bunch of marked bills.

baw703916

It seems that on this thread, something like half of the replies make reference to "marry the right person". So how is this actually implemented? Is there an equivalent of John Bogle to make everything simple, or is it just dumb luck? Seems a lot more complicated than just calling up Vanguard, takin...

baw703916

You could quickly complete your non-FIFO tax loss harvesting now, before you have to make that "assumption". Folks should complete their tax-loss harvesting each year anyways. Indeed, with prices where they are today, there should be no tax-loss harvesting opportunities at the present time. That is...

baw703916

Thanks for the link Doc. And thanks to everyone for the thoughts given so far.

baw703916

For DCA during an investors accumulation phase, what would be your fund rotation strategy? I could envision things like the following: Option #1: rotate between different similar funds for each scheduled purchase Option #2: stick to one fund for a period if time (e.g for a year), then start using t...

baw703916

One is using FIFO, not average cost. :) To me First-In, First-out identifies the shares sold and NOT the Cost Basis Method. For mutual fund (but not stocks and not ETFs), the First-In shares could have a cost basis method of Average Cost or Actual Cost. Stocks and ETFs must use Actual Cost no matte...

baw703916

livesoft wrote: ↑
Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:36 pm
If one is using Average Cost and has purchased shares recently at a higher price than the First In shares, then that will help minimize capital gains. Otherwise, sell fewer shares which will also minimize capital gains.

One is using FIFO, not average cost.

baw703916

I'd say offer to come back but no reduction in pay.

If they can't accommodate that, too bad!

Look for another job in any event.

baw703916

If one is using FIFO cost basis, what is the best way to minimize capital gains in taxable accounts (e.g. if rebalancing)? Please don't ask why the question assumes FIFO. Just assume it does. It seems to me that one would want to own several similar funds (e.g. Vanguard 500 index, Vanguard Large Cap...

baw703916

VictoriaF wrote: ↑
Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:01 pm
I like the picture of retired people in the beginning of the article!

Victoria

Will $1 million buy you a Wayback Machine to the 1950s?

baw703916

I think the statement that factor investing is expensive is a red herring. Like everything, it depends how it's implemented. TSM has an expense ratio of 0.04% Small Value index has an ER of 0.07% Total International has an ER of 0.11%. FTSE Smallcap has an ER of 0.13% So the difference is all of 2-3...

baw703916

If a company isn't publicly traded then active funds can't buy it either.

Now maybe that could be an argument for investing in private equity...but that's beyond the scope of this thread.

baw703916

Valuethinker wrote: ↑
Sun Nov 12, 2017 5:13 pm
The time to buy this was *not* when, on the London Tube, you see adds for Contracts for Different (CFDs) on cybercurrencies.

But it worked so well for dotcoms in 1999 and CDOs in 2007!

baw703916

I liked the descriptions of the various probabilities of getting to $1 million!

"Those are the odds that a celebrity marriage will last a lifetime" really does motivate you to boost your savings rate!

baw703916

If Dell hadn't done the buybacks, they might have gone private at $8 a share!

baw703916

With all due respect to Ms. Benz and the other Bogleheads who have posted on this thread, I think the wording of "uncertainty/humility score" kind of misframes the question. There are some things I don't know, and that I'm 100% certain I don't know: -what the return of stock and bonds will be over t...

baw703916

livesoft wrote: ↑
Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:28 am
I know of cafeterias, Indian, Middle-eastern, Mexican, Chinese, and barbecue buffet places.

It looks like U.S. Buffets get at least 50% of their menu options from other countries. So I'm thinking I don't need international diversification in my culinary portfolio...

baw703916

We keep hearing that we don't need no stinkin' foreign stocks because the S&P 500 companies get half of their revenue from international operations. So why not just divide by two and then the valuation is 67% of US GDP, and a bargain! :D Yeah. Exactly this. I tried to say the same (sorta) thing, bu...

baw703916

We keep hearing that we don't need no stinkin' foreign stocks because the S&P 500 companies get half of their revenue from international operations. So why not just divide by two and then the valuation is 67% of US GDP, and a bargain!

baw703916

Please transmit my thanks to your son for his service. I served from 2007 to 2014 as a Navy Surface Warfare Officer, so I'm familiar with the struggle. I agree with those above saying to go Roth for both TSP and IRA. Better to be taxed on the initial contribution than what's taken out, especially a...

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