Search found 695 matches

by Robot Monster
Mon Aug 03, 2020 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7306
Views: 596458

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

gubernaculum wrote:
Mon Aug 03, 2020 4:56 pm
San Francisco home prices continue to go up.
All I want to know is...is the Stinking Rose surviving?
by Robot Monster
Mon Aug 03, 2020 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Large Cap Growth has beat Large Cap Value
Replies: 15
Views: 869

Re: Large Cap Growth has beat Large Cap Value

Why am I seeing the opposite conclusion...from Jan 1972 - Jul 2020 Large Cap Value bears Large Cap Growth. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=4&startYear=1972&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAm...
by Robot Monster
Mon Aug 03, 2020 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no love for leveraging Junk Bonds?
Replies: 27
Views: 885

Re: Why no love for leveraging Junk Bonds?

There have been a lot of threads about leveraging portfolios with... ...which is a bit confounding to me. Why, oh, why are we talking about lev'ing up in a forum dedicated to the ideas of Jack Bogle? Is it just to be ironic? Isn't it like discussing meatloaf on an all-Vegan forum? Jack said leverag...
by Robot Monster
Mon Aug 03, 2020 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no love for leveraging Junk Bonds?
Replies: 27
Views: 885

Re: Why no love for leveraging Junk Bonds?

000 wrote:
Mon Aug 03, 2020 4:35 pm
There have been a lot of threads about leveraging portfolios with...
...which is a bit confounding to me. Why, oh, why are we talking about lev'ing up in a forum dedicated to the ideas of Jack Bogle? Is it just to be ironic? Isn't it like discussing meatloaf on an all-Vegan forum?
by Robot Monster
Mon Aug 03, 2020 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's doing 100% international equity?
Replies: 128
Views: 16921

Re: Who's doing 100% international equity?

I hold international at 30% of equites. It has been a very disappointing ride. An in-house international stock therapy support group would do us well. We can cry on each other's shoulders those days domestic outperforms. We can cheer each other up by talking about Japan 2.0 and how smart we're bein...
by Robot Monster
Mon Aug 03, 2020 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7306
Views: 596458

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Place your bets: do we get a melt-up or melt down? That is the question. Looks shaky right now, but Mr. Market could just be rolling out the red carpet for the bears & shorts, only to pull the rug out from under them in the closing minutes of the session. The bears are gonna be lured out just enoug...
by Robot Monster
Mon Aug 03, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Money Market
Replies: 13
Views: 1206

Re: Vanguard Money Market

Good morning, We have a sizable amount of cash on hand due to the sale of some property. We are very nervous about the market in general and are thinking about putting it into a money market account (perhaps VMMXX) for the next 6 months and then re-evaluating. Is there any risk with this approach. ...
by Robot Monster
Mon Aug 03, 2020 2:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Money Market
Replies: 13
Views: 1206

Re: Vanguard Money Market

Good morning, We have a sizable amount of cash on hand due to the sale of some property. We are very nervous about the market in general and are thinking about putting it into a money market account (perhaps VMMXX) for the next 6 months and then re-evaluating. Is there any risk with this approach. ...
by Robot Monster
Mon Aug 03, 2020 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So the stock market is forward looking. How forward?
Replies: 16
Views: 1277

Re: So the stock market is forward looking. How forward?

Presintense wrote:
Mon Aug 03, 2020 12:06 pm
Is it forward looking or more like forward guessing?
If it's forward guessing, isn't that like crystal ball gazing?
by Robot Monster
Mon Aug 03, 2020 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's doing 100% international equity?
Replies: 128
Views: 16921

Re: Who's doing 100% international equity?

I don't see how these examples invalidate CAPE, if anything they support it. Generally, a higher CAPE means a higher probability of a larger drawdown Appreciate this summary. Despite international's continual underperformance, the above alone makes me comfortable tilting into international. Much mo...
by Robot Monster
Mon Aug 03, 2020 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Regret Index
Replies: 190
Views: 23904

Re: Diversification Regret Index

Lower volatility is nice but if it mostly limits gains rather than losses... Yeah, that's quite not true. There are two ways to "lower volatility", de-risking and diversification. De-risking lowers volatility and expected return at the same time. Diversification lowers volatility without reducing e...
by Robot Monster
Mon Aug 03, 2020 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7306
Views: 596458

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Do guys in this thread dabble in individual stocks as well? I have an itch that I need to scratch (with around 1% of my portfolio). Let's hear it: what stocks/ETFs can you recommend for a short term (1-3 years) growth? Oh, I wouldn't recommend going down that path. I can tell you this from my own p...
by Robot Monster
Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7306
Views: 596458

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

CurlyDave wrote:
Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:37 am
The bell just rang this morning, and once more, the Curly Family Portfolio is forging ahead to new all time highs. :mrgreen:

I am hoping we are not alone in this.
I hear the Larry and Moe Family Portfolios are tilted in REIT, so not such a happy day. VNQ -1.49%.

China is +2.16%
by Robot Monster
Sun Aug 02, 2020 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Regret Index
Replies: 190
Views: 23904

Re: Diversification Regret Index

Investors often exhibit a tendency to evaluate the performance of their portfolio over very short horizons (e.g. days, weeks, months, years) even when their actual investment time horizon is quite long (e.g. multiple years, decades). Behavioral economists call this myopic loss aversion and it's lik...
by Robot Monster
Sun Aug 02, 2020 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the fear of actually LIVING through inflation overblown?
Replies: 80
Views: 5152

Re: Is the fear of actually LIVING through inflation overblown?

The reason I'm kind of rethinking my fear of inflation is that I've spoken to folks that lived through that time, and while inflation was high, you were also getting double digit interest in things like CDs or bonds. So it's not like if inflation was to hit double digits again our savings would be ...
by Robot Monster
Sun Aug 02, 2020 9:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Total Bond Fund for Short Term Savings?
Replies: 25
Views: 2139

Re: Total Bond Fund for Short Term Savings?

Yes, it's difficult to see interest rates spiking in the next 14 months, but because it's still possible if we get a surprise flare up in inflation I wouldn't bet the farm on it; a much smaller bet is reasonable, I suppose. You could still take a hit if the economy takes an unexpected turn for the w...
by Robot Monster
Sun Aug 02, 2020 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7306
Views: 596458

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Being newly retired and stuck at home because of Covid has increased the amount of activity in my portfolio tremendously. It is not very BH but I do enjoy the mental stimulation it causes. I got a kitten. Really helps distracting me from portfolio mischief. But I am enjoying my portfolio mischief. ...
by Robot Monster
Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the fear of actually LIVING through inflation overblown?
Replies: 80
Views: 5152

Re: Is the fear of actually LIVING through inflation overblown?

...However, if the underlying economic strength only returned to something like marginal, and unexpected inflation arrived, the tools to fight that inflation would surely send the economy into a tailspin? Did the rate raise into 2019 reverse on changing conditions or did it create the conditions ma...
by Robot Monster
Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds, cds, or.....?
Replies: 4
Views: 461

Re: Bonds, cds, or.....?

Riskier bond funds will give you more yield. Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund Admiral Shares (VUSFX) 30 day SEC yield 1.08% Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Fund Investor Shares (VWEHX) 30 day SEC yield 4.42% Not recommending this route because I do not know your goals not situation. Just putting al...
by Robot Monster
Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS & Inflation (expected vs. unexpected) ?
Replies: 27
Views: 1163

Re: TIPS & Inflation (expected vs. unexpected) ?

So... just what is the difference? Indeed, when does some factor in an inflation measure change from "expected" to "unexpected"? I'm sure you get what "expected inflation" means. "Unexpected inflation" is just the difference between realized (actual) inflation measured at the end of some period and...
by Robot Monster
Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Permanent Portfolio in a low interest environment
Replies: 32
Views: 4107

Re: Permanent Portfolio in a low interest environment

The All Weather/Season approach is based on diversifying across asset classes that perform well in 4 distinct ‘’seasons”, with different asset classes performing the best in different seasons. Rising growth & rising inflation: Commodities Falling growth & rising inflation: TIPS Rising growth & fall...
by Robot Monster
Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happens to bond funds if inflation rises?
Replies: 2
Views: 556

Re: What happens to bond funds if inflation rises?

Hi all, I had a question -- suppose you own a short-term bond fund and inflation picks up ... What happens to your investment over the long term? I understand that if you own an individual bond or CD you end up losing money, especially if inflation exceeds your rate of return. But I'd imagine the b...
by Robot Monster
Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio: Is He Saying Bonds Are Done?
Replies: 66
Views: 6164

Re: Ray Dalio: Is He Saying Bonds Are Done?

I hold fixed income securities for capital preservation. That’s their role in a portfolio. I can neither afford nor psychologically withstand the potential of losing 50% or more in a stock market crash. Bonds are for safety. Yield is just honey on the toast. Yes, but why do you hold bonds for safet...
by Robot Monster
Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7306
Views: 596458

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I see a red week tbh. Narrator: it was not a red week. Seems against human nature to be able to successfully tell yourself "I know nothing". That's why, when it comes to investing, best to shed one's human nature and become a monstrous robot like me, or a perfectly logical being like a pure-bred Vu...
by Robot Monster
Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7306
Views: 596458

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Haven't we reached a zenith due to the current stay-at-home situation? How much more can they buy from Amazon? Amazon already offers foodstuffs, durable goods, and virtual goods (software, films). I buy food and eat then I have to buy more. I eat almost every day too. Unless what you eat comes enti...
by Robot Monster
Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7306
Views: 596458

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Amazon Arguably has cross-industry synergies, but I ask again: where are the new customers? Who hasn't heard of Amazon? Current customers can buy more. Haven't we reached a zenith due to the current stay-at-home situation? How much more can they buy from Amazon? Amazon already offers foodstuffs, du...
by Robot Monster
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7306
Views: 596458

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:10 pm
Amazon
Arguably has cross-industry synergies, but I ask again: where are the new customers? Who hasn't heard of Amazon?
Current customers can buy more.
by Robot Monster
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7306
Views: 596458

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

It is also unusual for posters to say they are invested in an index when it is not the flavor of the month and going down. :beer I sometimes do that. My FLCH etf (China) and my VNQ (REIT) went down today, but that's okay cuz I'm not gonna sell so it makes no difference really. Oh, my international ...
by Robot Monster
Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7306
Views: 596458

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Awww. Now we have to wait the whole weekend for the stock market to go up again. :oops: While you may have made this post jokingly, it still intrigues me. I sometimes wonder how much higher the S&P 500 would be today if markets were open on the weekends, or simply 24/7 (in the way BTC is). Alternat...
by Robot Monster
Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7306
Views: 596458

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Whatever happened to holding an asset allocation and staying the course? International's underperformance is sector related. Look at the performance by sector in U.S. and international. Now look at the weighings. Not investing internationally is a sector tilt. The U.S. is heavily weighed toward tec...
by Robot Monster
Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio: Is He Saying Bonds Are Done?
Replies: 66
Views: 6164

Re: Ray Dalio: Is He Saying Bonds Are Done?

Disappointed we're all gliding past the "the Fed has jumped the shark" comment. The Fed hasn't jumped the shark till: 1. They start buying stocks, and stock ETFs especially QQQ. 2. They formally toss aside their 2% inflation target. 3. The Fed money printing machine is formally switched into "ludicr...
by Robot Monster
Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7306
Views: 596458

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

jay22 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:54 pm
H-Town wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:44 pm
That's why I don't chase after performance. It's a fool's errand.
Maybe. People who have profiteered massively after investing in tech stocks over SPY this decade would disagree.
No "maybe"! You just proved performance chasing works, don't you see?
by Robot Monster
Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7306
Views: 596458

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Whatever happened to holding an asset allocation and staying the course? International's underperformance is sector related. Look at the performance by sector in U.S. and international. Now look at the weighings. Not investing internationally is a sector tilt. The U.S. is heavily weighed toward tec...
by Robot Monster
Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7306
Views: 596458

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Hmm... buying high is not a good way to build wealth. :mrgreen: Same concept, it's not a good time to "buy in" large cap growth. The buying windows is already closed last March. You gotta guess correctly the next stocks/funds that will do well in the next 6 months. Market timing is ... not easy. Bu...
by Robot Monster
Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7306
Views: 596458

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

oldzey wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:47 pm
Keep on soaring, U.S. stocks! :beer
The Russell 2000, dropping -0.98% today, eyes you wearily. "I know how you feel, buddy," says REIT -0.18%. "Drinks are on me," says Amazon +3.7%. Meanwhile Google -3.28% is curled up on the floor crying.
by Robot Monster
Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19464
Views: 2695620

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I’d rather have international than more bonds...that’s kind of how I treat them...a necessary evil to hedge against a really bad decade... The problem with that approach is that for U.S. investors, owning ex-U.S. has been a lost decade. Actually, it's been a lost 13.5 years. The real return of ex-U...
by Robot Monster
Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio: Is He Saying Bonds Are Done?
Replies: 66
Views: 6164

Re: Ray Dalio: Is He Saying Bonds Are Done?

Leesbro63 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:02 pm
So should I give up on fixed income and only invest in equities now?
Impossible to answer if you don't give us more context as to your circumstances.
by Robot Monster
Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7306
Views: 596458

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I held my foreign VXUS for years before I sold. Is that market timing? If I stayed that would make me an enabler, not unlike one who stays in a bad relationship hoping things will change. I'm VXUS's new boyfriend, but sometimes sense some distance between us...I think VXUS might still be in love wi...
by Robot Monster
Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron’s article on bonds
Replies: 89
Views: 5532

Re: Barron’s article on bonds

...And the Fed has said that they are going to let inflation go over their 2% target... Yeah, I remember hearing about something like that, but it's not formalized, it seems. Here's something I found doing a quick search (published a couple days ago): "Before the pandemic hit, officials were close ...
by Robot Monster
Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19464
Views: 2695620

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

A 50% stock and 50% bond portfolio with 20% of stock to international is 10% overall to international and 90% to US. I do not believe that moves the needle much, if at all. This 20% cap on international investing is like a dude who sits by the side of the pool with only his legs in the water, while...
by Robot Monster
Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19464
Views: 2695620

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

nigel_ht wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:17 pm
I’d rather have international than more bonds...that’s kind of how I treat them...a necessary evil to hedge against a really bad decade...
"Necessary evil"? My goodness! You aren't dabbling in the dark arts by going international.
by Robot Monster
Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7306
Views: 596458

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Triple digit golfer wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:29 am
Alright, alright, everybody OUT! Get to the free fall thread, now!
I'm trying, I'm trying, but I can't find the door!
by Robot Monster
Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great Depression 2.0
Replies: 21
Views: 1729

Re: Great Depression 2.0

Anyone concerned with the biggest drop in GDP? Will asset prices continue to climb or another drop? We don’t truly know what the future brings but there are signs within the economy and the markets that lead me to stop contributing towards VTSAX and to build up cash reserves and await another buyin...
by Robot Monster
Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: High net worth, volatility phobic investor seeking help
Replies: 84
Views: 5731

Re: High net worth, volatility phobic investor seeking help

Practically, it would be very good for Vera to take a little risk. How much would an inflation adjusted (COLA) annuity that covered her minimum living expenses cost? Would that be a sufficient security net to take a tiny bit of risk with the remaining amount? To diversify at least somewhat into ann...
by Robot Monster
Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron’s article on bonds
Replies: 89
Views: 5532

Re: Barron’s article on bonds

How is high-quality dividend stocks less risky than high-quality bond? A bond is a contract in which you are given interest on regular intervals plus principal at the end of the term. There is no contract that your high quality stock price won't be less than what you paid for after a certain term. ...
by Robot Monster
Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: High net worth, volatility phobic investor seeking help
Replies: 84
Views: 5731

Re: High net worth, volatility phobic investor seeking help

I'd say spread it out over everything she can think of. Start off with 6m in gold. At 95k a year, she's good unless she lives to 109+. After that 4m in silver. Why? No clue but why not... probably won't be volatile in a bad way and also 10m total is a nice round number. With the remaining 12m split...
by Robot Monster
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: High net worth, volatility phobic investor seeking help
Replies: 84
Views: 5731

Re: High net worth, volatility phobic investor seeking help

Practically, it would be very good for Vera to take a little risk. How much would an inflation adjusted (COLA) annuity that covered her minimum living expenses cost? Would that be a sufficient security net to take a tiny bit of risk with the remaining amount? To diversify at least somewhat into ann...
by Robot Monster
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: High net worth, volatility phobic investor seeking help
Replies: 84
Views: 5731

Re: High net worth, volatility phobic investor seeking help

4% inflation is unlikely in the near term but 40 years ago it was 13.5%. In Planning for “only” 4% over 60 years is ignoring the inflation risk based on historical values. The 4% is meant to be the average disparity between inflation and interest rates. So, while inflation was 13.3% in 1979, intere...
by Robot Monster
Thu Jul 30, 2020 2:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: High net worth, volatility phobic investor seeking help
Replies: 84
Views: 5731

Re: High net worth, volatility phobic investor seeking help

With $22M, I can't imagine being more concerned with volatility compared with the upside of an opportunity to leave a massively larger amount to charity or heirs in the future. Why not go much more aggressive? I think she should get over the fear of volatility , as she has nearly infinite assets gi...
by Robot Monster
Thu Jul 30, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: High net worth, volatility phobic investor seeking help
Replies: 84
Views: 5731

Re: High net worth, volatility phobic investor seeking help

OP, She can achieve her goal with her portfolio. She can "Sleep Well At Night" (SWAN). She has no problem. So, why change anything? KlangFool I guess it's the scenario that the Fed doesn't raise interest rates to combat inflation. The Fed has a dual mandate, and each mandate has conflicting needs. ...