Search found 31 matches

by Kayakr
Fri May 17, 2019 1:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bigger car, less economical but more safe.. Get used to smaller car over time?
Replies: 106
Views: 7132

Re: Bigger car, less economical but more safe.. Get used to smaller car over time?

What makes you think an SUV is safer? Their handling characteristics are crap. http://www.accessmagazine.org/fall-2002 ... afer-cars/

Probably just pay a small premium and buy midsized cars.
by Kayakr
Fri May 17, 2019 1:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Near future high earner - getting ready
Replies: 14
Views: 1465

Re: Near future high earner - getting ready

Congrats! you should be in great shape.
by Kayakr
Fri May 17, 2019 12:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What major life expenses are you planning for pre/post retirement?
Replies: 0
Views: 267

What major life expenses are you planning for pre/post retirement?

In addition to my expense planning, I'm also planning for some additional lump some expenses. What's on your list? short term/post-tax: Emergency fund House Downpmt / Upgrade (retirement home) 3 year exp buffer Kid down payments Dry powder Available Long term/pre-tax: Long term care/HCE Legacy Distr...
by Kayakr
Fri May 17, 2019 12:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Using the Shiller P/E 10 to Predict Safe Withdrawal Rates?
Replies: 19
Views: 1691

Re: Using the Shiller P/E 10 to Predict Safe Withdrawal Rates?

A way to think about high cape could be that you actually have less money (in average terms) than what you have now. But if you sell and invest in 1% bonds where does that leave you? I'm planning on trying to cover baseline expenses with pension, social security and after tax savings. Then withdraw ...
by Kayakr
Wed May 15, 2019 12:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If you are already wealthy, what keeps you motivated?
Replies: 97
Views: 10265

Re: If you are already wealthy, what keeps you motivated?

Motivations: Tactical: - You're short of the 3M net, no? - Ongoing passive potential income looks like 36k real estate, 30k (3%) from assets, assuming no reserve for big expenses. - Health care, where do you get that? - Extra income has a 100% savings rate Psychological: - Community, purpose, safety...
by Kayakr
Wed May 15, 2019 11:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retirement home property - select good, better, best?
Replies: 27
Views: 3012

Re: Retirement home location, good, better, best

100% agree. Low lying coastal property buyer beware. Yes, totally agree, but... New England is very different from the majority of coastal island (e.g. sandbar and marsh) areas along the rest of the east and gulf coasts. The glacial deposited dunes of cape cod are up to 100 feet high and erode at k...
by Kayakr
Tue May 14, 2019 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retirement home property - select good, better, best?
Replies: 27
Views: 3012

Retirement home property - select good, better, best?

Location at coastal retirement home locations such as cape cod. a 2k square foot home on great waterfront would be a million, premium pond type lot 800k and basic smaller lot 600k. What would you go for assuming pension and the rest of the portfolio should more than sustain expected expenses?
by Kayakr
Tue May 14, 2019 10:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Asset Allocation in 60s
Replies: 17
Views: 1887

Re: Asset Allocation in 60s

- If you have fixed income streams that cover expenses, then you could take at % of assets instead of a fixed rate like 4% rule which reduces risk - If you are pulling at only 3-4% of assets, you can think of your assets more in terms of long term, total returns. - lower risk assets to cover first 5...
by Kayakr
Mon May 13, 2019 11:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: W-2 earner looking to lower effective tax rate
Replies: 33
Views: 4003

Re: W-2 earner looking to lower effective tax rate

US has a pretty low tax rate for a developed country. One of the lowest. US has average and very progressive income taxes compared to OECD. OECD data includes more costs as taxes (e.g. healthcare, 401-k) where workers in the US pay for it privately. US also has different collection of SALT taxes. h...
by Kayakr
Sun May 12, 2019 4:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Possible to receive Massachusetts Retirement System Pension AND Social security
Replies: 5
Views: 810

Re: Possible to receive Massachusetts Retirement System Pension AND Social security

private school count too? Mtrs allows you to buy credits, but only if ALL the students were paid for by the state. Unfortunately my wife lost 4 years service to this. Ask mtrs for an estimate of service,, check whether you selected retirement plus payments and review the schedule of percentages in ...
by Kayakr
Sun May 12, 2019 7:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What non frugal things save money?
Replies: 80
Views: 9535

Re: What non frugal things save money?

A fiduciary financial planner versus a commissioned financial salesman.
by Kayakr
Sun May 12, 2019 7:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Possible to receive Massachusetts Retirement System Pension AND Social security
Replies: 5
Views: 810

Re: Possible to receive Massachusetts Retirement System Pension AND Social security

MA teachers don't pay in to social security, so this is unlikely unless he/she has worked for 10 years in an early or later job. SS also pays out almost nothing compared to MTRS, so be glad those contributions actually go into an asset backed plan. Additionally, people with a good pension also get a...
by Kayakr
Sun May 12, 2019 6:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: W-2 earner looking to lower effective tax rate
Replies: 33
Views: 4003

Re: W-2 earner looking to lower effective tax rate

You're right, it's crazy high and why I personally don't seek bigger positions managing 3-5x the number of people for a 20% gain. I'm not that desperate and my ego needs don't compensate either. Quora has a few threads on this, some with replies by apparently well qualified people. https://www.quora...
by Kayakr
Fri May 10, 2019 3:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?
Replies: 71
Views: 3566

Re: CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?

There are reasons returns have been high even with high CAPE like accounting changes, and stock buy-backs, etc, etc., etc. I would think primarily that with the current very low interest rate environment, that all asset prices are bid up to match the same inverse price/yield equation bonds use. Oth...
by Kayakr
Fri May 10, 2019 12:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?
Replies: 71
Views: 3566

Re: CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?

IMO the best alternative is forward PE ...rule of 20. 20 minus 10Y note is rough forward PE target. It implicitly accounts for interest rate level and has no issue with bad trending or changes in tax rates since forward EPS consensus reflects the future not past. Do you have links for those charts?...
by Kayakr
Wed May 08, 2019 12:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The 4% rule
Replies: 94
Views: 6549

Re: The 4% rule

It's increasingly popular on this board for some to imply with authority that "things are different now" and the 4% guideline is now some sort of reckless spending level reserved for drunken sailors and the lot - and 3% or even lower is the "new" conservative withdrawal benchmark Think of it this w...
by Kayakr
Tue May 07, 2019 8:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College Expenses
Replies: 232
Views: 11549

Re: College Expenses

"private schools are no better" This again applies based on top schools and hard working / smart students that appreciated the investment: Kid #1 was allowed to get his Ms Bio Eng in 4 years using AP and additional credits which many schools won't support. He also joined the bio lab working with Ph...
by Kayakr
Mon May 06, 2019 6:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Say you have a pension & lot of cash. With those in mind, does it make sense to have a more aggressive allocation?
Replies: 62
Views: 4327

Re: Say you have a pension & lot of cash. With those in mind, does it make sense to have a more aggressive allocation?

My wife will be getting a similar pension. I just did some calculations. Her final years of working, she will be earning 4x her salary by adding 3x of her salary into savings, raise and pension benefit. The present value of her pension will be 12x final salary. Think twice about retiring before reac...
by Kayakr
Mon May 06, 2019 6:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Nearing retirement, enough money, but need planning
Replies: 13
Views: 2907

Re: Nearing retirement, enough money, but need planning

You might also talk to the estate planner about simplifying the estate. Someone I know had a father with property in three states and they all wanted their share, so closing the rate was expensive.
by Kayakr
Mon May 06, 2019 4:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College Expenses
Replies: 232
Views: 11549

Re: College Expenses

My kids both went to ivys. You can go for free if your income is less than like 75k, but my wife and I would both need to quit to do that. Grants drop off steeply after that. Top schools don't give merit scholarships, because they can just pick another valedictorian instead. So if we were price sens...
by Kayakr
Mon May 06, 2019 3:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: taxable vs mortgage paydown
Replies: 16
Views: 1575

Re: taxable vs mortgage paydown

I'd suggest planning carefully for college with it's own risk adjusted portfolio. You'll be finishing around retirement age so any loans won't be feasible or will be on the kids. I'm lucky that my kids were really smart. I'm unlucky in that paying for 8 years of the best colleges in the world cost o...
by Kayakr
Mon May 06, 2019 3:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking feedback on summary retirement plan
Replies: 5
Views: 522

Re: Seeking feedback on summary retirement plan

Pension has minimal cola. Hence the portfolio withdrawal rate (also because assets are highly valued now) should be low. Most of the assets are pre-tax/taxable, 401k. The cash portion will be taxable/post-tax. Emergency funds: Yes Debt: None Tax Filing Status: Married Tax Rate: Currently 32%, maybe ...
by Kayakr
Mon May 06, 2019 2:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking feedback on summary retirement plan
Replies: 5
Views: 522

Seeking feedback on summary retirement plan

- Married, 2 incomes, plan to retire in 6 years, age 60 - Wife will have good and secure (fully funded by employee contributions) pension, covers baseline expenses, joint survivor. - Currently investing in stocks/intl/reit 80, bonds 20 portfolio. Plan to leave this as is going into retirement as pen...
by Kayakr
Fri May 03, 2019 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets
Replies: 44
Views: 2498

Re: Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets

I'm mostly buying bonds now to keep them in balance Yeah, that sounds like the key. 20-40% bonds doesn't seem to cost much in lowering of average returns as much as much as one might guess, probably because of the rebalancing effect. https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/saving-investing/model-...
by Kayakr
Fri May 03, 2019 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets
Replies: 44
Views: 2498

Re: Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets

He said the EXACT SAME THING in 2015 on the exact same website... Same words even.. Yes, good points. He will be right eventually, whenever inflation rises or people demand higher interest rates. Except he can't call the when with enough precision (0 years? 10 years?) to avoid the loss of missing o...
by Kayakr
Fri May 03, 2019 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets
Replies: 44
Views: 2498

Re: Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets

stop listening to the chattering financial heads in the media Yes, but... It's also just assessing the situation directly. A bond fund yielding 2% with a duration of 8 years doesn't make much sense when you can get the same in cash. I didn't buy real estate in 2002 because cash flow was negative. G...
by Kayakr
Fri May 03, 2019 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets
Replies: 44
Views: 2498

Re: Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets

Appreciate the good points. Especially the issue seems to be: when will interest rates rise? The market seems to think not within 10 years. Fed tried to "kick the habit" earlier this year but we're in pretty deep to the addiction. If you make the call now and sit on your hands for 10 years it might ...
by Kayakr
Fri May 03, 2019 8:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Initial retirement investing in a record high stock market
Replies: 105
Views: 8191

Re: Initial retirement investing in a record high stock market

"Plus there will be no evidence until it happens - did someone have evidence of 1999 crash or 2008 crash prior to it happening?" Yeah, there are many indicators. Everyone knows the music is going to stop, but nobody knows when. CAPE valuations and total market cap versus GDP are particularly intere...
by Kayakr
Fri May 03, 2019 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reversion to the Mean Is Dead?
Replies: 63
Views: 6756

Re: Reversion to the Mean Is Dead?

The disaster scenario is that all the quantitative easing and debt result in asset inflation becoming real inflation with interest rates rising to keep up. A glitch happens, investors stop buying because they recognize 2% dividend yields in paper dollars make no sense. Prices fall 50-60% to match th...
by Kayakr
Fri May 03, 2019 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Initial retirement investing in a record high stock market
Replies: 105
Views: 8191

Re: Initial retirement investing in a record high stock market

What you guys seem to be ignoring is that we aren't just at a record high, but record CAPE valuation and record valuation as percentage (140%) of GDP. We've had a 30 year trend of decreasing interest rates, so there isn't much structural yield upside remaining.
by Kayakr
Fri May 03, 2019 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets
Replies: 44
Views: 2498

Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets

Are there any other longtime dollar cost average buyers questioning putting their biweekly savings into such a highly valued market where both stocks and bonds seem to have nothing but downside risk? If so, what's your plan?