Search found 133 matches

by Wrench
Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dalio - bonds don't provide a diversification benefit when interest rates are near zero
Replies: 97
Views: 5543

Re: Dalio - bonds don't provide a diversification benefit when interest rates are near zero

Unless you go the junk route (which I don't consider to be investments), your options for getting any tangible yield are pretty limited: long term corporates. Whether you should or not, is not for me to say. For most investors, true, long term corporates are one of the few options that do offer som...
by Wrench
Sun Oct 25, 2020 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dalio - bonds don't provide a diversification benefit when interest rates are near zero
Replies: 97
Views: 5543

Re: Dalio - bonds don't provide a diversification benefit when interest rates are near zero

There are two completely different modes of thinking about how to use "bonds" and for some reason many prefer to talk past each other rather than stay clear on the difference. Just as everybody prefers to have their private definitions of "diversification" and never state clearly what they mean by ...
by Wrench
Sun Oct 25, 2020 4:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Potential job loss at 62
Replies: 13
Views: 1278

Re: Potential job loss at 62

<SNIP> My immediate question: I am thinking about refinancing the mortgage, which will cut the monthly nut from $2,700 to $1,200 - obviously a big difference. <SNIP> If you can save $1500 per month on your mortgage why wouldn't you do it regardless of what happens with your job? Even if closing cos...
by Wrench
Wed Oct 21, 2020 3:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bonds - Are they worth it to you?
Replies: 169
Views: 12170

Re: I bonds - Are they worth it to you?

I think ibonds are great but I'm not buying anymore. I have $30k stuck in treasury direct requiring a medallion signature to access. If I am having trouble accessing it, I don't know how my hiers will get to it. If that's the price we for security, then they are a very secure and safe place to put ...
by Wrench
Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: A hidden silver lining to low interest rates?
Replies: 6
Views: 1641

A hidden silver lining to low interest rates?

In rereading Michael Kitces' article about valuing Social Security: https://www.kitces.com/blog/valuing-social-security-benefits-as-an-asset-on-the-household-balance-sheet/ I realized that our current state of very low (negative) real rates of return means that the value of the social security asset...
by Wrench
Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best withdrawal strategy for 4% guaranteed return 403B
Replies: 7
Views: 526

Re: Best withdrawal strategy for 4% guaranteed return 403B

1. A lower withdrawal rate, for example 2.75%, and then adjusting that every year for inflation. Beginning at age 72 you will be required to take minimum distributions from the 403B, so you won't have the choice to withdraw 2.75% (it starts @3.7%). You must withdraw the RMD from "any" 403B (if you ...
by Wrench
Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best withdrawal strategy for 4% guaranteed return 403B
Replies: 7
Views: 526

Re: Best withdrawal strategy for 4% guaranteed return 403B

You will need to look at the tax implications if the need for long term care arises. Large LTC expenses are a deductible medical expense so are often best paid for from traditional retirement accounts not Roth accounts. The overall impression I felt of your plan is that it seems based on the belief...
by Wrench
Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best withdrawal strategy for 4% guaranteed return 403B
Replies: 7
Views: 526

Re: Best withdrawal strategy for 4% guaranteed return 403B

1. A lower withdrawal rate, for example 2.75%, and then adjusting that every year for inflation. Beginning at age 72 you will be required to take minimum distributions from the 403B, so you won't have the choice to withdraw 2.75% (it starts @3.7%). You must withdraw the RMD from "any" 403B (if you ...
by Wrench
Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best withdrawal strategy for 4% guaranteed return 403B
Replies: 7
Views: 526

Best withdrawal strategy for 4% guaranteed return 403B

I have a 403B tax deferred account that pays a guaranteed 4% annual return. As I approach retirement, I am trying to decide the best withdrawal strategy for the money in the account. Income from social security, an inflation adjusted annuity, iBonds and a TIPS ladder will provide sufficient income t...
by Wrench
Thu Oct 08, 2020 2:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should We Ever Save for Children's College?
Replies: 467
Views: 29938

Re: Should We Ever Save for Children's College?

Harvard, Yale, etc I'll pay big $$$ for. Some 2nd tier ivy not so much. So, for Harvard, Yale, and Princeton you would pay the big $$$, but for the “second tier” Ivies of Dartmouth, Columbia, the University of Pennsylvania, Cornell, and Brown you would not? Just curious. Yep. HYP along with MIT, St...
by Wrench
Wed Oct 07, 2020 6:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should We Ever Save for Children's College?
Replies: 467
Views: 29938

Re: Should We Ever Save for Children's College?

Harvard, Yale, etc I'll pay big $$$ for. Some 2nd tier ivy not so much. So, for Harvard, Yale, and Princeton you would pay the big $$$, but for the “second tier” Ivies of Dartmouth, Columbia, the University of Pennsylvania, Cornell, and Brown you would not? Just curious. Yep. HYP along with MIT, St...
by Wrench
Tue Oct 06, 2020 9:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should We Ever Save for Children's College?
Replies: 467
Views: 29938

Re: Should We Ever Save for Children's College?

To each their own. The best two financial goals we've reached is to save a sufficient amount for retirement and have our kids graduate college debt free. It's also nice to have a sufficient amount of money saved/on hand so that the decision of which university to attend is not impacted by financial...
by Wrench
Mon Oct 05, 2020 4:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do not call
Replies: 25
Views: 3379

Re: Do not call

Or get a better cord. We replaced our Verizon phone number by: 1. Temporarily porting it to a throw-away cell phone SIM in an old phone. 2. Then porting it to Google Voice. 3. Buying an inexpensive Obihai VOIP adaptwe and configuring things so that calls to our Google Voice number ring our traditio...
by Wrench
Mon Oct 05, 2020 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Bengen Article Citing Kitces. SWR vs Valuation
Replies: 96
Views: 7121

Re: New Bengen Article Citing Kitces. SWR vs Valuation

It always had a high probability of working? Just how high? As I noted above, even a 'mere' 5% probability of failure for a given period would mean that there would be over a 92% probability of failure in at least one period over 50 years, but we haven't even see that occur. That math only works if...
by Wrench
Sun Oct 04, 2020 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Bengen Article Citing Kitces. SWR vs Valuation
Replies: 96
Views: 7121

Re: New Bengen Article Citing Kitces. SWR vs Valuation

I would argue that using SWR also signifies big problems. At this point is should be obvious that it is possible to obtain much higher SWR's with a dynamic asset allocation. It should also be obvious that real investors don't pick a withdrawal rate and stick to that no matter what. If that wasn't e...
by Wrench
Tue Sep 29, 2020 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Friend on the verge of financial ruin, how to help?
Replies: 137
Views: 15703

Re: Friend on the verge of financial ruin, how to help?

I am beginning to think that a flat gift with no strings attached is the best approach. neowiser, Why? You will lose her as a friend. And, when she is really desperate and out on a street, there is no one she can turn to. She is not that desperate yet. Save your resource for when she really needs y...
by Wrench
Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does anyone recommend this $350 laptop?
Replies: 51
Views: 3652

Re: Does anyone recommend this $350 laptop?

Gateway GWTN141-2: The specs look good to me. I like the AMD processor, but the 4 Gb RAM is soldered in and is not expandable: :oops: https://www.walmart.com/ip/Gateway-14-1-FHD-Ultra-Slim-Notebook-AMD-Ryzen-3-3200U-4GB-RAM-128GB-SSD-Tuned-THX-Audio-Fingerprint-Scanner-Webcam-HDMI-Windows-10-S-Goog...
by Wrench
Mon Sep 28, 2020 2:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best ways to tap home equity
Replies: 11
Views: 1321

Re: Best ways to tap home equity

I would consider selling the home, then using 1/2 to 2/3 of the proceeds to buy a Single Premium Immediate Annuity (SPIA) for her. She will then have plenty of income to rent a home or move to a senior living community. In the 80’s can be a great time to get a SPIA. Of course it only makes sense if...
by Wrench
Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buckets in Retirement
Replies: 97
Views: 7710

Re: Buckets in Retirement

The trouble with the One Big Bucket O'Money approach to retirement, for me, is that I have never had a big bucket of money. Instead I have had a series of problems that need to be solved. Can I live indoors, independently, in nice surroundings I choose? Can I keep the heat, water, and lights on? Ca...
by Wrench
Thu Sep 24, 2020 3:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buckets in Retirement
Replies: 97
Views: 7710

Re: Buckets in Retirement

Curious how many active retirees on this site use the three bucket approach during retirement for short term cash needs, medium term and longer term growth? Would be interested in the Vanguard funds used in each of the three buckets I'm not retired, but will be within a year or two. I view my inves...
by Wrench
Wed Sep 23, 2020 6:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Physicians: Should I leave my job?
Replies: 207
Views: 16035

Re: Physicians: Should I leave my job?

I'm aware of the payor mix and the billing to collections ratio, and it's quite favorable for the system! If you are aware of the payor mix and billing to collection ratio, then I am sure the third-party payors are also very much aware. And they are likely to drive harder bargains in these exceptio...
by Wrench
Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Quicken Disaster!
Replies: 185
Views: 9829

Re: Quicken Disaster!

is this quicken still popular? why? Because, warts and all, it is the only thing that I have seen or read about that does what it does. What do you suggest as an alternative? Moneydance. Does the job. Great support. One time cost, NOT a subscription. And yes, there is a time required to convert you...
by Wrench
Mon Sep 21, 2020 5:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: what is your side job and income?
Replies: 87
Views: 10746

Re: what is your side job and income?

I'm doing a very stable 9-5 job. Duty is light. Earn is OK. Location is near home. 401K and Roth IRA contributions are all set. I have ample time and energy left after work. Now I'm considering some side job/income. I wonder what bogleheads are conducting on side, and would like to learn some ideas...
by Wrench
Mon Sep 21, 2020 9:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Quicken Disaster!
Replies: 185
Views: 9829

Re: Quicken Disaster!

I reinstalled Quicken on another computer and nothing changed: cannot open older Quicken data files. Did you install the full drive image you have from Acronis onto a different computer? I can’t see that not getting you back to a working state. Don’t try restoring pieces, do a full image restore. N...
by Wrench
Mon Sep 21, 2020 8:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Quicken Disaster!
Replies: 185
Views: 9829

Re: Quicken Disaster!

<Snip> When I imported my Quicken file into Moneydance it became clear it would take me dozens if not hundreds of hours to fix all the issues. I only back up my data (but have dozens of backups in various locations) so doing a full restore wouldn't be an option for me. The import into MoneyDance ha...
by Wrench
Sun Sep 20, 2020 3:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Quicken Disaster!
Replies: 185
Views: 9829

Re: Quicken Disaster!

FINAL (?) STATUS. Bottom line, I have given up on getting back my old data. (Unless a future Quicken Update can open one of my older data files, thus the above question mark.) I reinstalled Quicken on another computer and nothing changed: cannot open older Quicken data files. The reinstalled Quicke...
by Wrench
Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much to invest in Fund that has guaranteed 4% return?
Replies: 19
Views: 2679

Re: How much to invest in Fund that has guaranteed 4% return?

I see that you are 66, and I’d imagine that your spouse is 65. Will you, by any chance, turn 67 before the end of the year? I’m assuming you won’t be because of your Social Security claiming strategy, but thought it was worth asking as anyone turning 67 this year (born in 1953) has other SS options...
by Wrench
Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much to invest in Fund that has guaranteed 4% return?
Replies: 19
Views: 2679

Re: How much to invest in Fund that has guaranteed 4% return?

tibbitts wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:14 pm I would be somewhat surprised if this annuity allowed transfers in at the same 4% rate. Has that been verified?
Yes. Just this morning in fact, though they did say that "the windows to do that" is closing soon.
by Wrench
Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much to invest in Fund that has guaranteed 4% return?
Replies: 19
Views: 2679

Re: How much to invest in Fund that has guaranteed 4% return?

tibbitts wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:14 pm I would be somewhat surprised if this annuity allowed transfers in at the same 4% rate. Has that been verified?
Yes. Just this morning in fact, though they did say that "the windows to do that" is closing soon.
by Wrench
Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much to invest in Fund that has guaranteed 4% return?
Replies: 19
Views: 2679

Re: How much to invest in Fund that has guaranteed 4% return?

what's the guaranteed term? Thank you. Good questions. No term, it is a fixed, lifetime contract that pays a variable interest rate with a 4% floor as long as there is money in the fund. No fees. But, I will confirm (again) before I move any more money in. When I invested in this fund in the 80s th...
by Wrench
Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much to invest in Fund that has guaranteed 4% return?
Replies: 19
Views: 2679

Re: How much to invest in Fund that has guaranteed 4% return?

willthrill81 wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:50 pm
Wrench wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:46 pmThe fund is held by a major insurance company (a competitor of TIAA).
Would you mind revealing the name of this company? I'm not sure why you wouldn't. That may help elucidate the situation.
Voya, formerly ING, formerly Aetna.
by Wrench
Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much to invest in Fund that has guaranteed 4% return?
Replies: 19
Views: 2679

Re: How much to invest in Fund that has guaranteed 4% return?

I have a "stability of principal" annuity in a 403B that I got into over 25 years ago when I was a faculty member. It has a variable interest rate that can go up or down, but the lowest it can go is 4%. That's what it has been at (obviously!) for a number of years. I have a few percent of my portfo...
by Wrench
Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much to invest in Fund that has guaranteed 4% return?
Replies: 19
Views: 2679

Re: How much to invest in Fund that has guaranteed 4% return?

You can transfer in as much as you want and there are no withdrawal penalties? Maybe I'm being naive but isn't there a huge arbitrage opportunity here? I'd attempt to borrow as much money as possible at close to 1-2% interest and stuff it all into this fund. Assuming you own stocks, another way to ...
by Wrench
Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much to invest in Fund that has guaranteed 4% return?
Replies: 19
Views: 2679

Re: How much to invest in Fund that has guaranteed 4% return?

What is your stage of life? 4% is a superb rate at this time but it is not a great historic rate. A good intermediate bond fund has historically outperformed 4%. So it is a great fund to take advantage of at this time but I would not foreclose other alternatives (think surging inflation). Will reti...
by Wrench
Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much to invest in Fund that has guaranteed 4% return?
Replies: 19
Views: 2679

How much to invest in Fund that has guaranteed 4% return?

I have a "stability of principal" annuity in a 403B that I got into over 25 years ago when I was a faculty member. It has a variable interest rate that can go up or down, but the lowest it can go is 4%. That's what it has been at (obviously!) for a number of years. I have a few percent of my portfol...
by Wrench
Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone successfully living off dividends & interest?
Replies: 204
Views: 20295

Re: Anyone successfully living off dividends & interest?

How did the people who lived off dividends from Kodak, Radio Shack, Enron, Washington Mutual, Pan Am, Polaroid, and Sears come out? As long as they still have their stock certificates, they're okay, right? What is your implication? The implication is that dividends alone are not necessarily enough....
by Wrench
Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What % of income to spend on car?
Replies: 122
Views: 8526

Re: What % of income to spend on car?

"we ARE observing oil that is MUCH dirtier than I have seen in other vehicles within only a few thousand miles after an oil change." Did you have the oil tested? No, I have not tested the dirty oil. Good suggestion. How would I do that, and what would I test for? How would I use the results? To sup...
by Wrench
Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What % of income to spend on car?
Replies: 122
Views: 8526

Re: What % of income to spend on car?

[/quote] "The purchase price of any vehicle should be low enough so when you sell it, you will have only spent ~$1000 per year in depreciation." Would it not make more sence to combine the costs of depreciation along with any repairs/maintenance required in any year by year guideline? Our metric has...
by Wrench
Sun Sep 13, 2020 4:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone successfully living off dividends & interest?
Replies: 204
Views: 20295

Re: Anyone successfully living off dividends & interest?

Engineers' (stretch) goal is $5MM and $10MM for doctors. There are two things in favor of medical doctors, higher earnings and (far) more secure employment prospect. Another factor: experience, aka age, also counts favorably for doctors. The two big hurdles for physicians are huge student loans and...
by Wrench
Sun Sep 13, 2020 4:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What % of income to spend on car?
Replies: 122
Views: 8526

Re: What % of income to spend on car?

About: 30m. 72k salary (not including 30-40k side income; volatile and don't like to include it). Living at home due to covid saving on rent. Networth: 230k I need a new car badly...current car is at 200k miles. I want to buy a 2018 Honda Accord 2.0t with 30-60k miles. The cost will be 22-25k. I'd ...
by Wrench
Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [Question regarding password security]
Replies: 101
Views: 3310

Re: Security question on one's passwords

.... [/quote] Thank you I am going to explore this. As you must have realized I know nothing about computers so this question might sound stupid: when you say KeePass where the database is stored locally does it mean that you store the datebase yourself like on an external disk drive? Or is it still...
by Wrench
Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [Question regarding password security]
Replies: 101
Views: 3310

Re: Security question on one's passwords

One complicated password for all is fine. But eventually, web sites require you to change passwords anyway. Just plain bad advice. As stated above, if any single site is breached, all sites that use that password are vulnerable. There are caches of breached passwords on the web. You have your choic...
by Wrench
Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [Question regarding password security]
Replies: 101
Views: 3310

Re: Security question on one's passwords

i have several bank+brokerage accounts plus other accounts for which you need a password (like email, utility companies etc). I am becoming more conscious of taking precautions to ensure these accounts are not hacked. Is it ok to choose a pretty complicated password but the same for all accounts? I...
by Wrench
Sun Sep 13, 2020 8:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What % of income to spend on car?
Replies: 122
Views: 8526

Re: What % of income to spend on car?

About: 30m. 72k salary (not including 30-40k side income; volatile and don't like to include it). Living at home due to covid saving on rent. Networth: 230k I need a new car badly...current car is at 200k miles. I want to buy a 2018 Honda Accord 2.0t with 30-60k miles. The cost will be 22-25k. I'd ...
by Wrench
Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone successfully living off dividends & interest?
Replies: 204
Views: 20295

Re: Anyone successfully living off dividends & interest?

I an single and always have been. I would like to step away from my high paying job at 57. (my lowest income year will be 14K - 35 years ago as of today) My "SS estimate" at full retirement age 67 is 2863.00 per month. but doesn't that assume I keep my current pay of over 100K per year job until I'...
by Wrench
Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone successfully living off dividends & interest?
Replies: 204
Views: 20295

Re: Anyone successfully living off dividends & interest?

I'm a few years out from retirement and am exploring a bunch of different portfolio strategies. I won't have enough money to just dump it in a bond fund (unless it's some volatile CEF) and "live off the interest" like our grandparents did. I've run the numbers every which way and in this low-intere...
by Wrench
Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Customer Service & Ease-Of-Use: Vanguard vs. Fidelity
Replies: 64
Views: 5724

Re: Customer Service & Ease-Of-Use: Vanguard vs. Fidelity

While I recognize there have been numerous threads exchanging opinions about the merits of using Vanguard versus Fidelity for a variety of needs (taxable, tax-sheltered, cash, etc.), I would like to gather a more focused perspective around any differences around customer service and ease of use its...
by Wrench
Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying vs. Renting Principles
Replies: 205
Views: 13068

Re: Buying vs. Renting Principles

Yes, I should have qualified my statement to refer to the fact that renting increases certain risks relative to owning (e.g. inflation risk), and owning increases certain risks relative to renting (e.g. property losing its value). The big protection in downside risk from owning is the fact that onc...
by Wrench
Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Immediate Annuity Satisfaction or Regrets?
Replies: 66
Views: 4506

Re: Immediate Annuity Satisfaction or Regrets?

I would spread the purchase(s) over some years also. Did you start out intending to spread the purchases over ten years? An alternative is to purchase an SPIA with a fixed percentage increase (2%, 3%, etc.). It doesn’t appear that any insurer offers true COLA policies (probably too much “tail” risk...
by Wrench
Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio review - FIRE 2020?
Replies: 57
Views: 4528

Re: Portfolio review - FIRE 2020?

My quick and dirty answer to these questions is to find out what an annuity would pay for your entire portfolio based on your spouse and your ages. If the payout meets or exceeds your expenses, then you should be good to go. Not that I would purchase an annuity with any or all of it especially at yo...