Search found 473 matches

by YRT70
Mon May 18, 2020 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15383

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

Your conclusions about the international SWR sound a lot different than Wade Pfau's. Do you know what caused the difference? "In eleven of twenty countries, the SAFEMAX fell below 3%." https://retirementresearcher.com/4-rule-work-around-world/ He includes WW1 and WW2. Unsurprisingly, having million...
by YRT70
Mon May 18, 2020 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15383

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

Your conclusions about the international SWR sound a lot different than Wade Pfau's. Do you know what caused the difference? "In eleven of twenty countries, the SAFEMAX fell below 3%." https://retirementresearcher.com/4-rule-work-around-world/ He includes WW1 and WW2. Unsurprisingly, having million...
by YRT70
Mon May 18, 2020 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15383

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

So 810 years (27 periods) sounds about right. We aren't going to get that data in time to make a decision Then we already have the data we need. 27 periods. 1950-2020 is 70 years; call that 2 periods (1950-1979 and 1980-2009). We only need data from 14 countries and as we all know, the world is big...
by YRT70
Sun May 17, 2020 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement
Replies: 115
Views: 5823

Re: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement

Bad years early in retirement don't mean good years later, any more than a run of heads from flipping a coin now implies a run of tails later . Are you sure that's accurate? "bad returns at least mean that good returns are likely coming soon, as valuation normalizes and the market cycle takes over....
by YRT70
Sat May 16, 2020 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119062

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

This is just for fun as I doubt anyone would actually go all in on SCV, but Ben Felix recently mentioned that using 4% withdrawals in 30 year periods going back to 1926, 70% US SCV with 30% 5 year treasuries had no failures. It also has a thrilling max drawdown of 77%. This was an aside in a discus...
by YRT70
Sat May 16, 2020 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119062

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

This is just for fun as I doubt anyone would actually go all in on SCV, but Ben Felix recently mentioned that using 4% withdrawals in 30 year periods going back to 1926, 70% US SCV with 30% 5 year treasuries had no failures. It also has a thrilling max drawdown of 77%. This was an aside in a discus...
by YRT70
Sat May 16, 2020 4:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR Data: 6.5 Million Possibilities Considered
Replies: 152
Views: 7112

Re: SWR Data: 6.5 Million Possibilities Considered

https://i0.wp.com/earlyretirementnow.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/swr-part1-table1.png?resize=764%2C500&ssl=1 Is it just me or does 75% stocks look safer than 100% in the <4% range? That is correct, due to sequence of return risk. Having a little bit of bonds helps combat SORR by reducing volatil...
by YRT70
Mon May 11, 2020 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15383

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

geerhardusvos wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 9:48 pm
Interesting how he even admits that 40 years still has close to 90% success rate.
in backtesting.

That's an incredibly important distinction to make, and it's crucial to his argument.

Not that I believe 2.5% will be necessary in the future, that seems extremely cautious.
by YRT70
Mon May 11, 2020 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15383

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

Good video. Thanks for sharing.
by YRT70
Mon May 11, 2020 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626167

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Bitcoin correlated with equities; https://i.ibb.co/mDXCC9V/EXvgfwh-Wk-AEerxh.png Bitcoin peaked one month before the market top in Jan 2018, bottomed two weeks before the market bottomed in late Dec 2018, peaked three weeks before the market in Feb 2020, and bottomed three weeks before the market i...
by YRT70
Sun May 10, 2020 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63009

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

We are gonna hit bottom in the winter. The way the virus is playing out and too many countries are opening up too quickly its gonna get worse economically and socially before it gets better. Also dont forget to factor in political instability in the US in Oct and Nov if the virus is not under contr...
by YRT70
Sat May 09, 2020 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119062

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Note that >100% of value underperformance in last few years has been due to changes in the speculative return (valuations), not earnings growth, which then you might argue we had regime change. So the whole argument falls apart. I would be interested to see a source of this. I have a chart handy (i...
by YRT70
Sat May 09, 2020 2:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying to understand Merriman portfolio options
Replies: 32
Views: 1767

Re: Trying to understand Merriman portfolio options

 As for myself, I'm a 33yo single and have an aggressive tolerance, planning to hold all equities until my 40s.? With an investment horizon that short, are you sure you have an aggressive tolerance? I think so. What I was trying to convey that I don't plan to have any bonds in the portfolio until I...
by YRT70
Fri May 08, 2020 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119062

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I asked Larry Swedroe what he thought of the above ideas. This was his response: "Nice theories, sound intuitive but no evidence to support it. For example, there is literally no correlation between value premium and either the term premium (slope) or the level of interest rates. NONE. When the data...
by YRT70
Fri May 08, 2020 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying to understand Merriman portfolio options
Replies: 32
Views: 1767

Re: Trying to understand Merriman portfolio options

jadela wrote:
Wed May 06, 2020 1:11 am
 As for myself, I'm a 33yo single and have an aggressive tolerance, planning to hold all equities until my 40s.?
With an investment horizon that short, are you sure you have an aggressive tolerance?
by YRT70
Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Statistics on timers in market crashes?
Replies: 95
Views: 4552

Re: Statistics on timers in market crashes?

Bogleheads: As a relative newcomer, I am watching the first bear market I’ve paid attention to playing out in real time on the site. It has been a bit surprising to me how many people are capitulating by selling at various stages of the drawdown, but I guess given the posts from ‘08 it shouldn’t be...
by YRT70
Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119062

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

S&P’s Small-Cap Stocks Post Largest Edge Over Megacaps in 11 Years
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/arti ... ler-stocks

Making up a little for some lost ground.
by YRT70
Mon Apr 27, 2020 7:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5577
Views: 478090

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Or has the dead cat been reanimated?
by YRT70
Sun Apr 26, 2020 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31391

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

The case you have to make is it likely that the next 30 years will be worse than the worst 30 years in U.S. history. I probably wouldn't use the word 'likely', but I'd say it's certainly within the realm of possibilities that the 30 years could be worse than what we've seen in the past (or just sim...
by YRT70
Sun Apr 26, 2020 2:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31391

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

You just compared 30 years to 10 years. I know. If you find predictions from Vanguard for the next 30 years let me know. I haven't. I haven't either... Therefore I make no stupid predictions about 4% failing like other people do. Not sure who's predicting it's failing. My position is that I have le...
by YRT70
Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31391

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

That's very interesting. What is your source for that? I'd like to read more on that. I'm using my own research here. Below I show three portfolios for a hypothetical 1966 retiree, starting with $30,000 and withdrawing $100/month (adjusted for inflation). That's a 4% withdrawal rate. The first port...
by YRT70
Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31391

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

You just compared 30 years to 10 years. I know. If you find predictions from Vanguard for the next 30 years let me know. I haven't. Stock market runs in cycles. Bear markets are followed by bull markets.. If you are a believer in "expected" returns, then if we get 10 bad years, expected returns wil...
by YRT70
Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: books on behavioral finance/economics
Replies: 7
Views: 442

Re: books on behavioral finance/economics

The most readable book I've read is "Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes" by Belsky and Gilovich. The chapter on "anchoring" and "confirmation bias" is one that I often refer to in conversations with others interested in the topic of behavioral finance. Interesting. I'm just about to read 'Why...
by YRT70
Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31391

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

Further, the real return of bonds from 1941-1981 was negative, but the '4% rule' still worked. Except for when it didn't, in 1966. That's 1 year in 40, bringing the success rate to 97.5%. Still pretty good. But CAPE valuations were a lot lower then and expected stock returns were higher in that tim...
by YRT70
Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31391

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

An argument can be made that 1966 retirees' biggest problem was rampant inflation in the first 15 years of their retirement. That resulted in poor real returns for the first half of their retirement, which I've already noted in this thread have been very strongly predictive of the 30 year SWR. As s...
by YRT70
Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31391

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

Further, the real return of bonds from 1941-1981 was negative, but the '4% rule' still worked. Except for when it didn't, in 1966. That's 1 year in 40, bringing the success rate to 97.5%. Still pretty good. But CAPE valuations were a lot lower then and expected stock returns were higher in that tim...
by YRT70
Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying to build Black Swan by Larry Swedroe
Replies: 17
Views: 1974

Re: Trying to build Black Swan by Larry Swedroe

Did anybody actually build this portfolio? What ETFs would you use? I used the following: SP 500 --> VOO US Large Cap Value (ex Utilities) --> VTV US Small Cap Index 5% --> VB US Small Cap Value (ex Utilities) 5% --> VBR MSCI EAFE Value Index 10% --> EFV Dimensional International Small Cap Index 10...
by YRT70
Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR Data: 6.5 Million Possibilities Considered
Replies: 152
Views: 7112

Re: SWR Data: 6.5 Million Possibilities Considered

http://www.moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm among others gives S&P 500 data 1929-2019: nomial 9.95/ real: 6.77% 1940-1981: 10.52% (i.e. just above average) nominal and 5.62% CAGR. ( about 20% worse than average). Over 40 or so years, most of the 40 year periods collapse down into a pretty na...
by YRT70
Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR Data: 6.5 Million Possibilities Considered
Replies: 152
Views: 7112

Re: The only safe withdrawal rate is one under 3%

David Jay wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 7:45 am
reln wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:11 am
I think M* is reputable enough and it's their position that given current bond yields the "4% with inflation adjustment" fails about 50% of the time.
Link?
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/77 ... rule-fails
by YRT70
Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR Data: 6.5 Million Possibilities Considered
Replies: 152
Views: 7112

Re: SWR Data: 6.5 Million Possibilities Considered

4% worked even when bond real returns were NEGATIVE over a long period. Absolutely. I don't know why there is a pervasive myth that the U.S. had robustly good bond returns in the 20th century. That's demonstrably false. According to the Simba backtesting spreadsheet, from 1941-1981, the real return...
by YRT70
Sun Apr 19, 2020 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR Data: 6.5 Million Possibilities Considered
Replies: 152
Views: 7112

Re: SWR Data: 6.5 Million Possibilities Considered

Historical average bond rates are 4.55%. Now they're 1.77% and could well be going lower. This factor and other factors have led for example Wade Pfau and Larry Swedroe to question the safety of the 4% 'rule'. Wade Pfau, Ph.D., CFA - Does The 4% Rule Work In Today’s Markets? https://retirementresear...
by YRT70
Sat Apr 18, 2020 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31391

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

Image

This ^ is what's currently happening to treasury yields. I'd say it's likely this will have a negative effect on future SWRs.

Image source: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2020/0 ... ck-market/
by YRT70
Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1121
Views: 97001

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Weight-lifting forums aren't full of die-hard weight lifters who chastise anyone who dare use body-weight or resistance band training. This is by far the most incredible single sentence I have ever read on this forum. It sounds good but it's actually not accurate. I've spend years on the bodybuildi...
by YRT70
Thu Apr 16, 2020 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31391

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

But in truth, whether the 30 year SWR has been 4% or 3.8% is basically pointless because no retiree knows when they will die, so planning on a precisely 30 year long retirement is foolhardy. Most retirees won't need their portfolios to last 30 years. According to the SS Administration's data, a 65 ...
by YRT70
Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31391

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

Good related article: Does The 4% Rule work in a low-yield environment? Since 1860, the average yield has been 4.55%. Currently, the yields are 1.77%. And the lowest ever recorded yield was only three years ago, at 1.55%. So, yes, the current rates are historically very low . In historical simulatio...
by YRT70
Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?
Replies: 263
Views: 16393

Re: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?

MindBogler wrote:
Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:42 pm
Presented with no commentary:
Interesting but I prefer seeing data that specifies the performance of small cap value instead of all small caps together.
by YRT70
Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?
Replies: 263
Views: 16393

Re: Whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?

Bogleheads: I'll guess that investors who used the colorful DFA chart (above) to buy small-cap value funds are now wishing they had never seen it. :oops: Benjamin Disraeli/Mark Twain quote: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” Best wishes. Taylor Jack Bogle's Words of...
by YRT70
Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?
Replies: 263
Views: 16393

Re: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?

I'm surprised that Merriman didn't make the SCV color cherry red . Is that a reference to cherry picking? If so, what do you find cherry picked about the data used? Just curious. What happens if you include mid caps as a separate category here? Do they compete well with small caps, historically? I ...
by YRT70
Thu Apr 16, 2020 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?
Replies: 263
Views: 16393

Re: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?

I was surprised to read that small cap value is only 3% of the total market. I was not aware that it was that small. abuss368: It depends on whose definition is used. I used the 3% figure from Morningstar's style box. This means that making a bet that SCV will win is about 3 in 97. https://i.imgur....
by YRT70
Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe - "What If I've Over Estimated My Tolerance For Risk?"
Replies: 43
Views: 5310

Re: Larry Swedroe - "What If I've Over Estimated My Tolerance For Risk?"

Or one might consider, over time with new money, to reduce to 30/70, which has an excellent risk-adjusted return. See this excellent article below: https://www.fa-mag.com/news/article-1155.html?section=2 That may have been good advice at the time, in 2005. Nowadays bond yield are at a historic low....
by YRT70
Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe - "What If I've Over Estimated My Tolerance For Risk?"
Replies: 43
Views: 5310

Re: Larry Swedroe - "What If I've Over Estimated My Tolerance For Risk?"

-- Maybe this is good time to sit and say -- that was a painful lesson, I learned it. Lower my investment policy statement allocation to 50-50 permanently. Or one might consider, over time with new money, to reduce to 30/70, which has an excellent risk-adjusted return. See this excellent article be...
by YRT70
Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe - "What If I've Over Estimated My Tolerance For Risk?"
Replies: 43
Views: 5310

Re: Larry Swedroe - "What If I've Over Estimated My Tolerance For Risk?"

-- Maybe this is good time to sit and say -- that was a painful lesson, I learned it. Lower my investment policy statement allocation to 50-50 permanently. Or one might consider, over time with new money, to reduce to 30/70, which has an excellent risk-adjusted return. See this excellent article be...
by YRT70
Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe - "What If I've Over Estimated My Tolerance For Risk?"
Replies: 43
Views: 5310

Re: Larry Swedroe - "What If I've Over Estimated My Tolerance For Risk?"

ChangedInvestor2019 wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:46 pm
Larry Swedroe - "What If I've Over Estimated My Tolerance ...
Thank you for bringing this video to my attention.
by YRT70
Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?
Replies: 386
Views: 32131

Re: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?

"Market timing is the strategy of making buying or selling decisions of financial assets (often stocks) by attempting to predict future market price movements. The prediction may be based on an outlook of market or economic conditions resulting from technical or fundamental analysis." Looks like a ...
by YRT70
Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119062

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Good article today by Ben Carlson What Happened to Small Cap Value? At its trough, the Russell 2000 Value Index was down nearly 45% from the highs. Small cap value stocks are still down well over 30% over the past year. ... Using history as a guide can be imperfect because investors don’t live in a...
by YRT70
Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those missing timeless investing wisdom of Larry Swedroe
Replies: 5
Views: 1383

Re: For those missing timeless investing wisdom of Larry Swedroe

Thanks for sharing Evelyn. Love listening to Larry's perspective.
by YRT70
Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value as bubble protection (Ben Felix video)
Replies: 13
Views: 724

Re: Value as bubble protection (Ben Felix video)

I noticed the exact same part as I was watching that video today.

Very interesting how small and value both outperformed the market in Japan for a very long time frame.
by YRT70
Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119062

Re: The BOGLEHEADS Forum

It's a little bothersome that time and time again, you chime in, calling this "risky" or "gambling" Steve: I am reminded of the Ford salesman who walked into a Mercedes showroom and became offended because someone tried to sell him a Mercedes. Best wishes Taylor Taylor, A more accurate analogy in m...
by YRT70
Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in stocks in the current market conditions: how and when would you do it?
Replies: 83
Views: 5799

Re: Investing in stocks in the current market conditions: how and when would you do it?

If you are committed to DCA, you should start now and go as quickly as your psyche will allow. Certainly be fully invested within 6-8 weeks , tops. Interesting. Based on the historic data on bear markets (which can't predict the future I realise) it seems that the average down fall lasts quite a bi...