Search found 317 matches

by YRT70
Mon Sep 16, 2019 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 293
Views: 15315

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

No. For my comparison it was perfect. I'm only interested in whether tilting to SCV works when compared to TSM. You didn't show that it works. You only showed that it worked in the past. And if you look at more recent data, you will see that it hasn't worked in the recent past either. Of course, ba...
by YRT70
Mon Sep 16, 2019 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 293
Views: 15315

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

@Elysium, I've already answered to those points in a previous thread. I see no need to repeat the discussion.
by YRT70
Mon Sep 16, 2019 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 293
Views: 15315

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

I am not trying to sway anyone, especially to tilt to Growth. I didn't say that you were trying to sway anyone. I said those 7 years of outperformance wouldn't sway me. The important point is there is no evidence for consistent outpeformance of Value over Growth, as they both move in and out of fav...
by YRT70
Mon Sep 16, 2019 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 293
Views: 15315

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

It appears, DFA investors are better served in Growth over the past several years since they introduced Growth funds in 2013. Sure. And they would have gotten even better results by putting their money in iShares low vol. I consider that nice to know. Personally those 7 years of outperformance woul...
by YRT70
Mon Sep 16, 2019 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 293
Views: 15315

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

I simply picked the SCV funds with the earliest available data. You picked an Intl SCV fund and compared it with Total Intl Market fund, there were no Intl SCG funds available to pick therefore the comparison is moot. No. For my comparison it was perfect. I'm only interested in whether tilting to S...
by YRT70
Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 293
Views: 15315

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

You picked a specific fund from one provider, DFA, and were constrained by the starting point of that fund. A very tiny sample that proves nothing. Data from index providers (MSCI) that are widely used for implementation by funds/ETFs across the industry shows Growth/Value has performed about the s...
by YRT70
Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 293
Views: 15315

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

You can go back even longer to 30 years and see they are even. Growth and Value cycles move in and out of favor. Pick your favorite start/end points and you can get whatever result you want, but over long run they are about same no matter what market you pick. I didn't pick a starting point, portfo...
by YRT70
Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 293
Views: 15315

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

@rkhusky, from what I've read most advocates of diversifying across multiple risk factors also believe in diversifying internationally. Tilting to small value has done better in international and emerging markets. Here's one example using DFA funds, using the longest time frame possible for these f...
by YRT70
Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 293
Views: 15315

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

@rkhusky, from what I've read most advocates of diversifying across multiple risk factors also believe in diversifying internationally. Tilting to small value has done better in international and emerging markets. Here's one example using DFA funds, using the longest time frame possible for these fu...
by YRT70
Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds falling when fed is expected to cut rates?
Replies: 24
Views: 2909

Re: Why are bonds falling when fed is expected to cut rates?

bpr wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 10:59 am
Trying to understand whats is happening with bonds.
I asked the same question a few days ago: viewtopic.php?f=22&t=290241
by YRT70
Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 253
Views: 25899

Re: Small Cap Value Heads Rejoice!

Here's another chart. Just happens to start in 1999 because that's the inception of VTMGX. If you know a Vanguard INT fund that's been around longer let me know, I can use that one instead. VGTSX ( Total INTL ex-US Investor Shares) Inception 1996 Thanks. If I use that one the starting date becomes ...
by YRT70
Fri Sep 13, 2019 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multifactor vs specialized factor funds
Replies: 15
Views: 886

Re: Multifactor vs specialized factor funds

For what it's worth Rob Arnott in his interview with Christine Benz in The Longview podcast suggested the Multifactor funds will likely underperform due to the relatively high valuations of momentum, and other components dragging down the expected returns from the cheap value stocks in the portfoli...
by YRT70
Fri Sep 13, 2019 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 253
Views: 25899

Re: Small Cap Value Heads Rejoice!

But showing how SCV outperformed since 2000 was just misleading. I didn't choose 2000 as a starting year, it just happens to be the inception date of SLYV, an open accessible SCV fund that's been around nearly 20 years. I also included another chart starting from 2007. Here's another chart. Just ha...
by YRT70
Fri Sep 13, 2019 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 253
Views: 25899

Re: Small Cap Value Heads Rejoice!

Why does correlation matter? Just look at US vs. International; correlations have been pretty tight, but returns are vastly different. It is equally (if not more) important to have assets that perform better/worse out of sync with each other, even if their correlation is high (or even perfect). You...
by YRT70
Fri Sep 13, 2019 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 253
Views: 25899

Re: Small Cap Value Heads Rejoice!

Of course, 2000 is a great year to start SCV investing. If you use DFA US Small Cap Value I (DFSVX) and go back to 1994, which is as far back as you can go, you'll see that DFSVX does better nominally than SPY but at significantly more risk. 2000 is the starting date of SLYV. Above I included a com...
by YRT70
Fri Sep 13, 2019 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 253
Views: 25899

Re: Small Cap Value Heads Rejoice!

Those charts do not tell the full story. You cannot eat past performance, unless you landed on earth in the year 2000 with a few millions to invest in Portfolio 2 and a crystal ball that told you to do so, with not a dime to add since then. Sure, that's what backtesting does. By the way, the first ...
by YRT70
Fri Sep 13, 2019 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 253
Views: 25899

Re: Small Cap Value Heads Rejoice!

This is what I keep coming back to when I think about tilting to SCV. SCV is ~3% of the market, so I already own that. Maybe I should double my exposure to 6%, but the potential gains in doing that are so small (3% of a 2% excess return is 0.06%) it's not worth the hassle. On the other hand, I coul...
by YRT70
Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 293
Views: 15315

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

This forum has been examining whether various tilts were worthwhile and the consensus is still that it isn't. Sounds more like your opinion than a consensus to be honest. Judging by the amount of debates on this forum and the amount of people that do tilt, it doesn't seem like there's a consensus. ...
by YRT70
Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 293
Views: 15315

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

This forum has been examining whether various tilts were worthwhile and the consensus is still that it isn't. Sounds more like your opinion than a consensus to be honest. Judging by the amount of debates on this forum and the amount of people that do tilt, it doesn't seem like there's a consensus. ...
by YRT70
Thu Sep 12, 2019 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 293
Views: 15315

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

Market portfolio is a baseline, it can be used as a benchmark against which all portfolios can be compared, from that aspect it is fine. However, the tilted approach does not mean Value tilted, there are many tilts away from the market portfolio. Growth is a tilt away from the market and perfectly ...
by YRT70
Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 253
Views: 25899

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Anyone has DFSVX and happy with it? That is the canonical DFA SV fund. I own a heathen DFA SV fund, DFFVX. It has a larger average market cap and a smaller ER (0.37%). The value exposure is excellent. DFSVX has good small exposure and good value exposure. Probably worth the ER. If you want to be an...
by YRT70
Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 253
Views: 25899

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

SLYV is great. I have that one. Also,what do you guys think of holding DFSVX in 401k? It has ER 0.52. I don't hold it currently as i don't want to pay for this high ER Anyone has DFSVX and happy with it? DFSVX has deeper value exposure than SLYV and it's got some other features. If value outperform...
by YRT70
Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 662
Views: 47954

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

Random Walker wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 10:37 pm
Larry has an essay over on Advisor Perspectives discussing the challenges of retirement in a low interest rate and high equity valuation environment.

Dave
Is this the one you meant?

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/art ... nt-plans-1
by YRT70
Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:09 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: What's causing the prices of global bonds to drop currently?
Replies: 5
Views: 715

Re: What's causing the prices of global bonds to drop currently?

Thanks for the input guys. Learning every day.
by YRT70
Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 253
Views: 25899

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Not sure what to make of this - which fund will likely to better over the next decade, small cap value or a cheaper large cap value? iShares VLUE PB 1.4 PE 10.0 CF 3.8 iShares IJS PB 1.3 PE 13.7 CF 5.2 WisdomTree DES PB 1.5 PE 14.2 CF 5.7 From what I've read the premium is larger in smaller value s...
by YRT70
Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:16 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: What's causing the prices of global bonds to drop currently?
Replies: 5
Views: 715

What's causing the prices of global bonds to drop currently?

After global bonds had a nice run this year I noticed a current price drop of about 2% this week. I searched for causes like a rise in interest rates but haven't found anything. Does anyone know what could be causing this?

This iShares AGGH
Image
by YRT70
Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 293
Views: 15315

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

Proper comparison is between Value and Growth funds. I don't see it that way. I think most people consider the TSM approach vs. the tilted approach, although you may be different. The way Larry compares it makes total sense to me. Cherrypicked? Unless I'm mistaking he uses the longest time frame po...
by YRT70
Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 293
Views: 15315

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

Since Fama/French was published, the small and value premiums haven't been there. Have you seen the data referenced by Larry here? https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2019/08/20/factor-investing-works-despite-what-some-may-say Some Vanguard data since inception (in 2000): VTSAX 6.81% (TSM)...
by YRT70
Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau: Does The 4% Rule Work In Today’s Markets?
Replies: 102
Views: 7241

Re: Wade Pfau: Does The 4% Rule Work In Today’s Markets?

A rising equity glide path Yes, but subsequent analysis done by many here has shown that that doesn't really work any better (and maybe worse) than maintaining a steady AA throughout retirement. Do you have a link to that thread? Does that mean you don't believe in Kitces' ideas about having higher...
by YRT70
Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 662
Views: 47954

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

For those looking for a summary: if I remember correctly Larry gives 4 or 5 reasons why 4% may be too high. 1. expected bond returns are lower now 2. expected stock returns are lower (also due to high valuations) 3. longer life expectancy 4. SS will be lower And I think he mentioned another one. 4%...
by YRT70
Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau: Does The 4% Rule Work In Today’s Markets?
Replies: 102
Views: 7241

Re: Wade Pfau: Does The 4% Rule Work In Today’s Markets?

A rising equity glide path Yes, but subsequent analysis done by many here has shown that that doesn't really work any better (and maybe worse) than maintaining a steady AA throughout retirement. Do you have a link to that thread? Does that mean you don't believe in Kitces' ideas about having higher...
by YRT70
Mon Sep 09, 2019 5:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 662
Views: 47954

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

vitaflo wrote:
Sun Sep 08, 2019 10:40 pm
Why he used "SS will be lower" as a reason for "3% is the new 4%" is weird since SS was never part of the 4% rule in the first place.
Probably sloppy paraphrasing on my part. I don't think that's how Larry worded it in the podcast.
by YRT70
Mon Sep 09, 2019 2:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau: Does The 4% Rule Work In Today’s Markets?
Replies: 102
Views: 7241

Re: Wade Pfau: Does The 4% Rule Work In Today’s Markets?

Curious to hear what other people think about this article. I'm aware that MC simulations have serious limitations but I think they can be interesting nonetheless. I'm curious as to why you find a tool with serious limitations to be interesting. Using backtesting to predict the probability of futur...
by YRT70
Mon Sep 09, 2019 2:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 662
Views: 47954

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

The '4% rule' has always pertained to 30 year retirements, so saying that '3% is the new 4%' implies that 4% is no longer safe for 30 year retirements. I don't think that's the point Larry is trying to make. I think Larry is saying that the longer life expectancy means the withdrawal rate will like...
by YRT70
Sun Sep 08, 2019 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau: Does The 4% Rule Work In Today’s Markets?
Replies: 102
Views: 7241

Wade Pfau: Does The 4% Rule Work In Today’s Markets?

In this article Wade uses Monte Carlo simulations with the low interest rate world of today as a starting point. For a 50/50 asset allocation to stocks and bonds, the simulations indicate that the 4% withdrawal rate using historical expectations had a 94% chance of success. Using current expectation...
by YRT70
Sun Sep 08, 2019 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 662
Views: 47954

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

Longer life expectancies have nothing directly to do with SWRs. Not following that one. The 4% rule is based on 30 years retirement, but if I expect 40 years retirement, surely that would impact my expected SWR. As for the 2012 article from Kitces, I wonder if he would still say the same now. Larry...
by YRT70
Sun Sep 08, 2019 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 662
Views: 47954

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

For those looking for a summary: if I remember correctly Larry gives 4 or 5 reasons why 4% may be too high.

1. expected bond returns are lower now
2. expected stock returns are lower (also due to high valuations)
3. longer life expectancy
4. SS will be lower

And I think he mentioned another one.
by YRT70
Thu Sep 05, 2019 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 253
Views: 25899

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

IJS went up 3% in one hour this morning. That was nice. Don't think I've seen that before. Seems to be slowly going down now.
by YRT70
Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Add Momentum Factor
Replies: 36
Views: 2164

Re: How to Add Momentum Factor

For clarity: the fund reviewed in the document I linked to is XFS, iShares Edge MSCI Multifactor USA ETF. It's mostly large/mid cap, with some mega cap. https://www.morningstar.ca/ca/report/et ... lang=en-CA
by YRT70
Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Add Momentum Factor
Replies: 36
Views: 2164

Re: How to Add Momentum Factor

Keep in mind Robert t just does this to make mom 0. Not to actually tilt to mom. So maybe play w PV to see what percentage you want. I personally see nothing wrong w momentum/SCV as US exposure maybe 15-25/75-85 ratio as more you will be getting a lot of canceling out. For that would consider multi...
by YRT70
Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Add Momentum Factor
Replies: 36
Views: 2164

Re: How to Add Momentum Factor

I'm in a similar scenario as described by the OP. I have a stronger SCV tilt than him though. I was looking into my options to make the tilt a bit milder and/or maybe get some other factor exposure too. What you're saying makes sense. And yes I read several of Robert T's posts. Iirc he seems to fav...
by YRT70
Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Add Momentum Factor
Replies: 36
Views: 2164

Re: How to Add Momentum Factor

I'm in a similar scenario as described by the OP. I have a stronger SCV tilt than him though. I was looking into my options to make the tilt a bit milder and/or maybe get some other factor exposure too. What you're saying makes sense. And yes I read several of Robert T's posts. Iirc he seems to fav...
by YRT70
Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Add Momentum Factor
Replies: 36
Views: 2164

Re: How to Add Momentum Factor

What’s your goal? It will likely be hard for people to give you recs on a portfolio without that. If you have a specific loading for value, size, mom etc than I’m not sure you need to hold any VTI. Where as if you want to hold mostly just market with a slight tilt to all maybe VTI with a multifacto...
by YRT70
Sun Sep 01, 2019 6:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Add Momentum Factor
Replies: 36
Views: 2164

Re: How to Add Momentum Factor

This is a tricky thing to accomplish because momentum portfolios often load negatively on value. If you combine IJS and MTUM together say in equal proportions, MTUM largely will cancel out the value loading in IJS. The other problem is that when a value stock acquires upward momentum, it tends to c...
by YRT70
Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Factors" and language misuse
Replies: 71
Views: 3627

Re: "Factors" and language misuse

Merriman has a couple of portfolios. One of them is the 'all small cap value portfolio'. Only US, INT and EM small cap value. https://paulmerriman.com/best-in-class-recommended-portfolios-2019/ There are three funds in that portfolio. Yeah, that's what I said right? US, INT and EM small cap value.
by YRT70
Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 253
Views: 25899

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Bridgeway Omni Small Value (BOTSX), 1 year returns: -25% kewl :greedy Don't know this fund, but I am going to guess this is a cherry picker's bonanza: active fund, high ER, worst time period of short term performance. Not exactly Boglehead-like. :confused BOTSX is Larry's choice for SCV-- Best in c...
by YRT70
Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 25319

Re: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]

What you are saying is that if you conduct a regression analysis then TSM will show factor load of close to zero for everything else and 1 for market. Yes, TSM doesn't have significant loading on any factor besides market. What is credible support means? who is credible enough to make that claim? Y...
by YRT70
Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 253
Views: 25899

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Bridgeway Omni Small Value (BOTSX), 1 year returns: -25% kewl :greedy Don't know this fund, but I am going to guess this is a cherry picker's bonanza: active fund, high ER, worst time period of short term performance. Not exactly Boglehead-like. :confused BOTSX is Larry's choice for SCV-- Best in c...
by YRT70
Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Factors" and language misuse
Replies: 71
Views: 3627

Re: "Factors" and language misuse

Merriman has a couple of portfolios. One of them is the 'all small cap value portfolio'. Only US, INT and EM small cap value.

https://paulmerriman.com/best-in-class- ... lios-2019/
by YRT70
Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 25319

Re: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]

If someone wants to do this with play money then it is a good template to follow Larry, others should take note of their individual situation and the consequences of betting all of their retirement nest egg on value strategy like he follows. So when it's just play money it's ok to bet on 3 factors ...