Search found 318 matches

by Lee_WSP
Tue Jun 18, 2019 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 708
Views: 42512

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Have you considered doing a split, such as 50% BAH and 50% TF? Depending on what triggers the TF strategy, yes. Since taxable would incur taxes, it doesn't behoove me to do frequent trades. At the same time, I'd also like to keep a toe in the water so to speak. So if I were to execute the strategy,...
by Lee_WSP
Tue Jun 18, 2019 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 708
Views: 42512

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

This might be of interest. I notice that volatility could be a problem for trend following techniques. For example, trend following in general worked great in the initial stock market decline of 1929 to 1932. But then the volatility increased tremendously month to month. We have never seen volatili...
by Lee_WSP
Tue Jun 18, 2019 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 92
Views: 6529

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

I have a question for people on both sides of this issue. What would it take to change your mind? Or to put it scientifically, what would it take to falsify your theory ? ... With respect to me, your question is flawed, because my international holdings are not meant to enhance my portfolio's retur...
by Lee_WSP
Tue Jun 18, 2019 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 708
Views: 42512

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

This might be of interest. I notice that volatility could be a problem for trend following techniques. For example, trend following in general worked great in the initial stock market decline of 1929 to 1932. But then the volatility increased tremendously month to month. We have never seen volatili...
by Lee_WSP
Tue Jun 18, 2019 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 708
Views: 42512

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Again, I reiterate that I personally agree with Mr. Bogle. For 99% of people, trying to be more than average is a loser's game. To get great reward, one must take on a disproportionate amount of risk. It seems we agree. Now go read the original post and tell me if this strategy has been sold as tak...
by Lee_WSP
Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 92
Views: 6529

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

The US has been outperforming international for so long now, despite ever higher valuations, that it's hard to justify that as just random variance. Something else is going on, and I'd like to know what it is. Actually, neither the length nor depth of so-called "US outperformance" is even remotely ...
by Lee_WSP
Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 708
Views: 42512

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Wisdom tells us to learn from the past, and that says the backward trends used forward have a poor history of success, even if it is trivial to find a successful trend from the past. This is most likely true, however, are there published studies on this? What was the methodology? Was the goal of th...
by Lee_WSP
Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 92
Views: 6529

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

This bugs me. The US has been outperforming international for so long now, despite ever higher valuations, that it's hard to justify that as just random variance. Something else is going on, and I'd like to know what it is. WW2. Europe & the rest of the world was left completely devastated while th...
by Lee_WSP
Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds question
Replies: 18
Views: 1158

Re: Bonds question

Of course it's more complicated than a few sentences...
by Lee_WSP
Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 708
Views: 42512

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Wisdom tells us to learn from the past, and that says the backward trends used forward have a poor history of success, even if it is trivial to find a successful trend from the past. This is most likely true, however, are there published studies on this? What was the methodology? Was the goal of th...
by Lee_WSP
Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 708
Views: 42512

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Using the same logic, what is ensuring that B&H indexing is always going to be the best strategy? This site is devoted to why the recommendations of Boglehead strategies are beneficial. You can read about why timing the market and lack of diversification are frowned upon, and why AA and keeping cos...
by Lee_WSP
Tue Jun 18, 2019 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 708
Views: 42512

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Using the same logic, what is ensuring that B&H indexing is always going to be the best strategy?
by Lee_WSP
Tue Jun 18, 2019 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which schedule is better when making periodic investments into an ETF
Replies: 17
Views: 1082

Re: Which schedule is better when making periodic investments into an ETF

Today it looks like my lump sum purchase was the right move. But even if the market had gone down, I would have known that what I did made sense. It's the not the outcome on any one specific bet - it's the process that was used to make the bet. In poker, if you push your money in with the right odd...
by Lee_WSP
Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 92
Views: 6529

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

junior wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:51 pm
Vanguard expects developed international to outperform U.S in the future, see their most recent annual economic report. I trust their view more than the random people on this message board.
They also think a US recession is all but guaranteed in the next ten years.
by Lee_WSP
Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which schedule is better when making periodic investments into an ETF
Replies: 17
Views: 1082

Re: Which schedule is better when making periodic investments into an ETF

The cardinal sin of waiting for a drop is that the bottom of tomorrow’s bear market may well still be higher than it is today. And the “wait for the drop” advocates are just as likely to continue waiting when it does finally happen. Perhaps they're just following their risk tolerance - aka zero and...
by Lee_WSP
Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 92
Views: 6529

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

Because there is also no evidence that it can't beat Amazon. Because market results for next week and/or ten years from now haven't happened yet. Holding the total stock market is also a surer bet that we'll still be holding that position 30+ years into the future and thus avoiding a taxable event....
by Lee_WSP
Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Solo 401k Question
Replies: 17
Views: 1156

Re: Solo 401k Question

guimbellot wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:14 pm
retiredjg wrote:
Sat Jun 15, 2019 2:43 pm
Note that you may have to wait until 2020 to set up your Solo 401k since you've had a SIMPLE this year.
I think you may be right. I will definitely check and find out before I do anything.
https://www.employeefiduciary.com/blog/ ... ith-a-401k
by Lee_WSP
Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds question
Replies: 18
Views: 1158

Re: Bonds question

Bond land is just as nutty as stock land. Who would had thought that buying bonds with negative yields (some developed market bonds) would give you a profit. That is exactly what has been happening so far in bond land over the recent short term. Seriously. It wasn't until I dug deep into the inner ...
by Lee_WSP
Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 92
Views: 6529

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

There is no evidence that the US market can beat Amazon for any extended period of time. Why invest in Total US? Because there is also no evidence that it can't beat Amazon. Because market results for next week and/or ten years from now haven't happened yet. Holding the total stock market is also a...
by Lee_WSP
Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 92
Views: 6529

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

I want to cut my international exposure from 40% to 25-30% and put this the Vanguard International Growth Fund. Any errors in logic here? I think you have a good rationale for wanting to reduce your exposure to international. I don't think switching to growth is going to necessarily accomplish what...
by Lee_WSP
Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which schedule is better when making periodic investments into an ETF
Replies: 17
Views: 1082

Re: Which schedule is better when making periodic investments into an ETF

As soon as the money is in your hands is the best answer given the expected outcomes. But expected outcomes doesn't mean it's the best psychological course. If you can stomach the possibility that 1/3 of the time, your lump sum will go down, then do it. If you can't, and if spreading it out over 3 m...
by Lee_WSP
Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 92
Views: 6529

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

There is no evidence that the US market can beat Amazon for any extended period of time. Why invest in Total US? Because there is also no evidence that it can't beat Amazon. Because market results for next week and/or ten years from now haven't happened yet. Holding the total stock market is also a...
by Lee_WSP
Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads vs Hedgefunds [or vs. venture capital]
Replies: 31
Views: 2058

Re: Bogleheads vs Hedgefunds [or vs. venture capital]

That's why I said, maybe this is the wrong place to say it... I didn't mean to say I have any intent in investing in venture capital or hedge funds... Perhaps we don't understand what you are trying to invest in. Individual stocks? Ie, at an IPO? Investing in startup companies looking for angel inv...
by Lee_WSP
Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds question
Replies: 18
Views: 1158

Re: Bonds question

Short term interest rates are determined by the fed funds rate or the LIBOR; which is set by the Fed. Right now, the Fed is saying we are going to charge you around 2.2% or whatever. I don't know off hand. Medium term interest rates are determined by how much people are willing to pay for new bonds ...
by Lee_WSP
Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Bad was 2008, really?
Replies: 310
Views: 35105

Re: How Bad was 2008, really?

Toons wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:17 pm
Was It Life
Or Death? :idea:
Yeah. It was.

https://money.cnn.com/2013/09/18/news/e ... index.html
by Lee_WSP
Mon Jun 17, 2019 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Bad was 2008, really?
Replies: 310
Views: 35105

Re: How Bad was 2008, really?

I was just starting out my career around that time. What people looking back on just the stock market fail to remember is the actual life consequences people were suffering through as stocks tumbled. People were out of work. Layoffs were happening everywhere. Companies were shutting down. My generat...
by Lee_WSP
Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads vs Hedgefunds [or vs. venture capital]
Replies: 31
Views: 2058

Re: Bogleheads vs Hedgefunds

With great reward comes great risk. This forum is not about taking on unnecessary risk so you are unlikely to find much sympathy outside of re-balancing a buy & hold portfolio.
by Lee_WSP
Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Got a refund today they only would put in back on the visa card. Later I found out that card has been closed nine months
Replies: 22
Views: 2406

Re: Got a refund today they only would put in back on the visa card. Later I found out that card has been closed nine mo

If you still have an open account with the bank, the bank will most likely just credit it to your open account. However, if not: It will go back to the bank that issued the credit card and they will eventually send you a check. Might take a while. This will happen. And if for some reason they cannot...
by Lee_WSP
Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Backdoor Roth IRA Monthly Automatic Investments
Replies: 5
Views: 406

Re: Vanguard Backdoor Roth IRA Monthly Automatic Investments

I have seen in fact threads that brag “I contributed to Roth IRA for 20xx already, anyone else?” On January 2nd The sooner it's in, the sooner you lock in that tax free growth. Personally, I’d opt for as few transactions as possible, but you certainly can do it each month. I’d suggest turning off t...
by Lee_WSP
Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Seeking comment on proposed revisions to Marginal Tax Rate and Traditional v. Roth wiki articles
Replies: 386
Views: 13787

Re: Seeking comment on proposed revisions to Marginal Tax Rate and Traditional v. Roth wiki articles

Is there a real world scenario where this happens or are you saying one is at the margin between the 12 and 22% brackets during withdrawals? Very real world. E.g., take a single filer earning with $70K W-2 earnings if no t401k contributions are made. You could use the personal finance toolbox Excel...
by Lee_WSP
Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Seeking comment on proposed revisions to Marginal Tax Rate and Traditional v. Roth wiki articles
Replies: 386
Views: 13787

Re: Seeking comment on proposed revisions to Marginal Tax Rate and Traditional v. Roth wiki articles

Sure, but why would a lump sum necessarily be better? Don't think anyone said it would be "better" from a green-eye-shade financial perspective. What do you mean by "better"? Wisest course of action. Unfortunately that is subjective. E.g., if only "a few hundred" dollars of a $19K 401k annual contr...
by Lee_WSP
Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA or no?
Replies: 18
Views: 1454

Re: Roth IRA or no?

What happens if I open a roth IRA now, contribute for a few years, then we do happen to go over max allowable married filed jointly income mandated by the government? Would I then have to transfer the roth into a traditional IRA? No, you can keep the Roth and everything in it. You would simply be u...
by Lee_WSP
Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Seeking comment on proposed revisions to Marginal Tax Rate and Traditional v. Roth wiki articles
Replies: 386
Views: 13787

Re: Seeking comment on proposed revisions to Marginal Tax Rate and Traditional v. Roth wiki articles

FiveK wrote:
Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:13 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:09 pm
Sure, but why would a lump sum necessarily be better?
Don't think anyone said it would be "better" from a green-eye-shade financial perspective. What do you mean by "better"?
Wisest course of action.
by Lee_WSP
Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Seeking comment on proposed revisions to Marginal Tax Rate and Traditional v. Roth wiki articles
Replies: 386
Views: 13787

Re: Seeking comment on proposed revisions to Marginal Tax Rate and Traditional v. Roth wiki articles

When one chooses a lump sum, the answer is the same whether one calculates the weighted average single dollar rates, or simply does (change in tax)/(lump sum amount). Do we all agree on that much? (change in tax)/(lump sum amount) is the average tax rate, which is the same as the weighted sum of th...
by Lee_WSP
Wed Jun 12, 2019 9:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is a 401K Worth It as a Small Business Owner?
Replies: 24
Views: 1511

Re: Is a 401K Worth It as a Small Business Owner?

FWIW - we tried it twice, each time the staff had "guaranteed' they would sign up and stay participatory…. shame on us for tryin the second time. We have a safe harbor plan now and the lack of participation is both alarming and a net lower cost than expected. I must be missing something. How do you...
by Lee_WSP
Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Seeking comment on proposed revisions to Marginal Tax Rate and Traditional v. Roth wiki articles
Replies: 386
Views: 13787

Re: Seeking comment on proposed revisions to Marginal Tax Rate and Traditional v. Roth wiki articles

I think we're overthinking it and I can agree to that. In practicum, you don't have to withdraw the same exact percentage of Roth:Trad that you put in. You can defer your Roth withdrawals indefinitely. So, in that sense, if the two are equally good based on the marginal rate today vs tomorrow calcul...
by Lee_WSP
Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is a 401K Worth It as a Small Business Owner?
Replies: 24
Views: 1511

Re: Is a 401K Worth It as a Small Business Owner?

I know this thread is a month old, but I have similar questions as the OP. OP, You need to ask a first question: What is the net benefit of the profit sharing agreement? Because that's the largest drag on your plan. The benefit is extra tax deferred savings to you & your wife + goodwill of employee....
by Lee_WSP
Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Seeking comment on proposed revisions to Marginal Tax Rate and Traditional v. Roth wiki articles
Replies: 386
Views: 13787

Re: Seeking comment on proposed revisions to Marginal Tax Rate and Traditional v. Roth wiki articles

What RHusky said. Unless the marginal rate (cost per unit) is the same across the entire amount, then and only then can you lump sum it and get an accurate analysis.
by Lee_WSP
Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it bad to look at debt (student loans) like this?
Replies: 39
Views: 2956

Re: Is it bad to look at debt (student loans) like this?

Due to the various Income Based Repayment options, I view loans as a tax on my income. I consider it unlikely that I'll ever pay off the entire balance, and have managed to avoid making a principal payment on most of my loans, in some cases for over 20 years. College is no longer a guarantee of mov...
by Lee_WSP
Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it bad to look at debt (student loans) like this?
Replies: 39
Views: 2956

Re: Is it bad to look at debt (student loans) like this?

Playing devils advocate, I believe many BH’s would react more favorably to a portfolio review post of scenario B than scenario A even though they are quantitatively net equal IMO. As you can surmise from the responses, you are correct. All debt is evil to a lot of commentators here if you read enou...
by Lee_WSP
Fri Jun 07, 2019 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: short question
Replies: 15
Views: 1688

Re: short question

If you expect the share price to drop in the future, you borrow shares now and sell them. Then when the price drops as you expect, you buy the shares back and return them to the person who lent them to you. Borrow one share when the price is $100. Sell it for $100. Next week when the share price dr...
by Lee_WSP
Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: short question
Replies: 15
Views: 1688

Re: short question

If you expect the share price to drop in the future, you borrow shares now and sell them. Then when the price drops as you expect, you buy the shares back and return them to the person who lent them to you. Borrow one share when the price is $100. Sell it for $100. Next week when the share price dr...
by Lee_WSP
Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How would you invest a lump sum of 3 million dollars in today's market?
Replies: 50
Views: 5497

Re: How would you invest a lump sum of 3 million dollars in today's market?

Invest it all now, but invest it conservatively until you've figured out your actual risk tolerance. Ie only invest what you absolutely will not need and will not touch into equities, the rest into bonds. Once you've truly figured out your risk tolerance, rebalance. That's what I recommend anyway.
by Lee_WSP
Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help finding/choosing CPA - is proximity important?
Replies: 5
Views: 520

Re: Help finding/choosing CPA - is proximity important?

What's keeping you from calling? Why email? Is it their preferred method of on boarding a new client? If not, that's why they haven't responded back to you. It could also be the contents. I'd suggest calling and setting up a meeting. That's how it is normally done if they don't have some sort of for...
by Lee_WSP
Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should All Grandkids Be Treated as Equal Members of Same Class?
Replies: 104
Views: 8007

Re: Should All Grandkids Be Treated as Equal Members of Same Class?

In my opinion, if the inheritance per grandkid is small, then go ahead and leave them equal parts. If it is big, then don’t leave the grandkids anything - just give it to the parents in equal shares. Otherwise, there is room for argument on who gets what and whether it is fair. For example, having ...
by Lee_WSP
Wed Jun 05, 2019 6:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying off my Loan Strategies - How???
Replies: 11
Views: 862

Re: Paying off my Loan Strategies - How???

edit: original post was not in time.

I would just direct the loan servicer to direct the extra payments towards the highest interest rate loans one at a time until they all disappear.
by Lee_WSP
Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Sole Proprietor Questions
Replies: 8
Views: 509

Re: New Sole Proprietor Questions

You'll want liability insurance. Your field may be professional liability. It depends. An LLC if it shields you from personal liability is a good idea. They're cheap to setup. You'll just have a few additional accounting requirements, but you should be doing them anyway (separate accounts for busine...
by Lee_WSP
Wed Jun 05, 2019 3:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Seeking comment on proposed revisions to Marginal Tax Rate and Traditional v. Roth wiki articles
Replies: 386
Views: 13787

Re: Seeking comment on proposed revisions to Marginal Tax Rate and Traditional v. Roth wiki articles

Kevin M wrote:
Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:37 pm
The cake visual made no sense to me with a quick look. Your explanation makes a lot of sense with a quick read.

Kevin
What about my attempt to re-envision it as a balloon? I couldn't think of anything else that would both expand when filled further and give off more during withdrawals.