Search found 2351 matches

by Lee_WSP
Tue May 26, 2020 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4911
Views: 424715

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Future contracts are marked to market and must be settled daily as the price changes. That means that every trading day at 5pm EDT your unrealized P&L becomes realized. I had no idea. So everyday its a taxable event? That is correct. I think you need to re read the question. A taxable event is an e...
by Lee_WSP
Tue May 26, 2020 12:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4911
Views: 424715

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Exactly. If you are making money why be afraid of taxes? If you boss gives you a raise do you say, sorry I don't want it because I pay more on taxes? Do the strategy using futures. Much more tax friendly. Is it really more tax friendly with futures? If you use micro e-minis aren’t you going to have...
by Lee_WSP
Tue May 19, 2020 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4911
Views: 424715

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

If I'm reading these comments correctly, if you go through a lot of trouble to be tax efficient, you will spend ~1% in unnecessary taxes, on top of already paying ~1% on expense ratios. In addition, TEA is presumably the highest expected return part of your portfolio, maximizing your expected taxab...
by Lee_WSP
Mon May 18, 2020 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4911
Views: 424715

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Is anyone else doing UPRO/TMF in taxable instead of tax advantaged? How are you rebalancing? Due to my situation (long story) I only have one tax-advantaged account -- a traditional IRA. Right now, I've been doing this in taxable, but just rebalanced and sold and took a profit on UPRO to rebalance ...
by Lee_WSP
Sun May 17, 2020 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4911
Views: 424715

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

People have posted plenty of data suggesting that futures are much better than upro/tmf. Nonetheless, there is value in not having to do it yourself. I imagine it’s a similar reason DIY will net you better returns or rather lower costs.
by Lee_WSP
Sun May 17, 2020 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4911
Views: 424715

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

i've started to play around w/ adding the VIX to this strategy and it certainly is appealing. However, the only way to invest in the VIX that I can find is through an ETN like VXX or VIXY, or use the leveraged version TVIX. all these options seem to drastically underperform the VIX index itself. Is...
by Lee_WSP
Sun May 17, 2020 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63071

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

jb3 wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 5:41 pm
Where do you put your money if you think this is likely?

>I could easily see us being in the economic dumps for 2-5 years
You could use a risk parity type of strategy. The brute force of adding 10% to the portfolio each year is going to far out strip any equities gains.
by Lee_WSP
Sat May 16, 2020 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63071

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

[ I relate it to kids and dessert. Kids will eat ice cream until it makes them sick, especially if it's being withheld from them by an authority figure. But once the restrictions are taken away they will start eating and keep eating...they may not be so fond of eating ice cream for a little while i...
by Lee_WSP
Sun May 10, 2020 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4911
Views: 424715

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I think that, in the context of this thread, too many may believe that we need full 1% drops in rates to get the desired effect as in prior, higher interest rate structures. At these low rates, much smaller changes in rates are necessary to support the strategy overall. I believe that one must have...
by Lee_WSP
Sat May 09, 2020 11:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to negotiate severance if laid off?
Replies: 75
Views: 6080

Re: How to negotiate severance if laid off?

I imagine you can only negotiate if you have some type of leverage. If you don't have any leverage, how does one negotiate? Exactly. Unless you're in a state with strong worker protections or you have an employment contract, you've got no bargaining power. If OP is a good employee that the company ...
by Lee_WSP
Mon May 04, 2020 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5641
Views: 483038

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Are we talking about wall street betters or actual professionals here?

I think we all agree that people who don't trade for an actual living are generally not successful or at the very least, it's not a great idea.
by Lee_WSP
Mon May 04, 2020 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5641
Views: 483038

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

And every once in a while, a good chunk of the timers win. The others kind of lose, but then get back up and do it again to win some other day. You just described a gambler's rationale for gambling. Except the majority don't win another day. They'll lose, lose, win, lose lose. Their little, infrequ...
by Lee_WSP
Mon May 04, 2020 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4911
Views: 424715

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

TMF is like an insurance policy. It will serve as a ballast since LTT's are a flight to safety asset. From 1980 to present rates have gone to zero, which has meant that instead of paying premiums, you actually got paid to hold the policy. Ironic, but that's basically what has happened historically.
by Lee_WSP
Mon May 04, 2020 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18803
Views: 2628762

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

The problem is: We don't know and I do not want to miss the boat when it leaves towards SP500 3'500... :annoyed I'm afraid that boat is docked right alongside the cruise ships and that neither will be heading out to sea any time soon. Carnival announced today it would begin resuming cruises startin...
by Lee_WSP
Sat May 02, 2020 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is LTT appearing "nice" only because interest rates has been dropping since "forever"?
Replies: 89
Views: 4630

Re: Is LTT appearing "nice" only because interest rates has been dropping since "forever"?

Buying long term treasuries at this time basically means accepting rates below the Fed's target inflation, while buying in prior years or using backtests would have typically meant buying at rates above target inflation. Essentially buying today may mean greater risks than someone that previously p...
by Lee_WSP
Sat May 02, 2020 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead
Replies: 96
Views: 8990

Re: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead

AZAttorney11 wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 12:47 pm
likely to regret that decision over the very long-term.
What if I'm dead by then?
by Lee_WSP
Fri May 01, 2020 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18803
Views: 2628762

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

What other bad news are we expecting to hear now that earnings are finally out?
by Lee_WSP
Fri May 01, 2020 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5641
Views: 483038

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

And every once in a while, a good chunk of the timers win. The others kind of lose, but then get back up and do it again to win some other day. You just described a gambler's rationale for gambling. Except the majority don't win another day. They'll lose, lose, win, lose lose. Their little, infrequ...
by Lee_WSP
Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5641
Views: 483038

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

it's amazing to me most of the biggest names in economics and finance all have sayings that basically say predicting market movements is hard. And yet people still try to do it. Not only try to do it, but actually believe it's easy. Why is it amazing? If you get it right, you can become fabulously ...
by Lee_WSP
Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?
Replies: 110
Views: 9274

Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

I wish I had more money. But any extra I had was invested, so no, I can't say that I wish I had invested more.
by Lee_WSP
Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18803
Views: 2628762

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I think that wealthy people just aren't all that affected by the economic freeze and their money really has nowhere else to go.
by Lee_WSP
Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Statistics on timers in market crashes?
Replies: 103
Views: 5075

Re: Statistics on timers in market crashes?

Moving averages works much better with leverage. There is no point in selling at 305 and re-entering at 300-305, but for a 2-3x leveraged ETF it makes all the difference due to avoiding a lot of volatility decay. It does make more sense if you're using leverage, however, the returns decay during bu...
by Lee_WSP
Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Statistics on timers in market crashes?
Replies: 103
Views: 5075

Re: Statistics on timers in market crashes?

Moving averages works much better with leverage. There is no point in selling at 305 and re-entering at 300-305, but for a 2-3x leveraged ETF it makes all the difference due to avoiding a lot of volatility decay. It does make more sense if you're using leverage, however, the returns decay during bu...
by Lee_WSP
Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63071

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

"we could find ourselves in the position where we do test those lows again... we think the market has gotten a bit ahead of itself in terms of both the reality of what's on the ground... as well as the reality of these (Fed) programs" Oksana Aronov of JPMorgan AM Ahead of itself? Isn't that what st...
by Lee_WSP
Sun Apr 26, 2020 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63071

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Forester wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 4:01 pm
Forward S&P 500 P/E is an eye-watering 19.1! https://twitter.com/FactSet/status/1254485655775780865
My guess is that's because the 30 year treasury rate is an eye watering 1.17% APY.
by Lee_WSP
Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: PPP Loan and Risk that Forgiveness Rules will Change
Replies: 15
Views: 1304

Re: PPP Loan and Risk that Forgiveness Rules will Change

First I'd need to get the loan, then I can worry about forgiveness. I applied in the first hours it was available, still no loan.
by Lee_WSP
Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4911
Views: 424715

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

With all the focus on interest rates, there’s a great book on this strategy called “balanced asset allocation”. It gives an excellent overview on how we should think about stocks/bonds and commodities. Basically, the starting yield of LTTs is insignificant. The risk associated with a low yield is a...
by Lee_WSP
Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4911
Views: 424715

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

What are your guys thoughts on shifting this into a 20/80 UPRO/TMF or 30/70 when getting closer to retirement if I am comfortable with this strategy in my early savings years? Running the 1986 and on simulations using a one lump sum with monthly investments and quarterly re-balancing looks like the...
by Lee_WSP
Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5641
Views: 483038

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

That's what always gets me. If the market is priced at X, isn't X the weighted average value of what investors feel the market value is? This is why trying to predict short-term market movements seems so futile and dangerous. It is literally a bet. That's not right. The market price is where everyb...
by Lee_WSP
Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 807
Views: 51646

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Given where we are now, LTT's undoubtedly do have a greater SORR than they did say 6 months ago. However, what are you going to do about it?
by Lee_WSP
Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4911
Views: 424715

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

So can someone tell me if I am missing something? I know the prospectuses on these investments say that high volatility is bad but I went back through months with high volatility spikes (09-present) and can only find one or two instances when the market beat a 50/50 UPRO/TMF. It seems even during t...
by Lee_WSP
Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estate sale of vehicle, both unrelated owners deceased; sell to dealer or get bought out of interest?
Replies: 14
Views: 607

Re: Estate sale of vehicle, both unrelated owners deceased; sell to dealer or get bought out of interest?

ballons wrote:
Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:48 pm
Selling to a dealer would be just as risky to the estate and me personally as if sold to an individual? :confused
Since both are fairly risk-less to you; yeah.
by Lee_WSP
Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRS Get My Payment up and running
Replies: 369
Views: 24316

Re: IRS Get My Payment up and running

Thank you for the response. I understand that the bank information used for 2018 or 2019 tax payments will not be used by the IRS for direct deposit stimulus payments. But I am curious if anyone who *owed* taxes in their most recent return has been able to input their direct debit bank information....
by Lee_WSP
Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Another Close or Walk Dilemma
Replies: 19
Views: 2413

Re: Another Close or Walk Dilemma

Interesting that you'd have agreed to a non returnable deposit of 10% in the first place for a reno job. But that's a different topic. I'd walk. You're only looking at dumping even more money into it. The 100k is a sunk cost. Unless you really want this property no matter what, your choices are: Con...
by Lee_WSP
Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Parents want me to pay off their mortgage in exchange for title
Replies: 102
Views: 9215

Re: Parents want me to pay off their mortgage in exchange for title

not only a potentially nice thing to do but a really nice deal in the future for him to own a property over double what he paid No it's not. If he's the only heir, it's probably going to OP in the end anyway, and if he has siblings, this is going to create acrimony. And he wouldn't even have the ri...
by Lee_WSP
Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are we spending too much on a house? 28yo & 24yo
Replies: 89
Views: 6105

Re: Are we spending too much on a house? 28yo & 24yo

My bigger concern is doing this as an un-married couple. Not generally recommended to co-mingle finances like this as it can get very messy. (Have a friend going through unwinding one of these right now. :oops: ) There's not exactly a better way to do it after they're married either. The community ...
by Lee_WSP
Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to negotiate severance if laid off?
Replies: 75
Views: 6080

Re: How to negotiate severance if laid off?

fizxman wrote:
Sun Apr 19, 2020 9:57 pm
I imagine you can only negotiate if you have some type of leverage. If you don't have any leverage, how does one negotiate?
Exactly. Unless you're in a state with strong worker protections or you have an employment contract, you've got no bargaining power.
by Lee_WSP
Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Parents want me to pay off their mortgage in exchange for title
Replies: 102
Views: 9215

Re: Parents want me to pay off their mortgage in exchange for title

It's an interesting chance to own something "worth" over 500k and pay 180k for it, but at the same time I wouldn't be drawing any income off of it. Wanted to get the opinions of this forum on such a deal. You wouldn't own it. You'd own the tail end of a life estate. Usually a life estate is granted...
by Lee_WSP
Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estate sale of vehicle, both unrelated owners deceased; sell to dealer or get bought out of interest?
Replies: 14
Views: 607

Re: Estate sale of vehicle, both unrelated owners deceased; sell to dealer or get bought out of interest?

Your estate attorney will know, but it sounds like you think they held the title as Tenants in Common, not Joint Tenants. So that the car is now the two estates own the car as tenants in common. If that's the case you either accept their buy out or get them to agree to a sale or get a court to orde...
by Lee_WSP
Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Parents want me to pay off their mortgage in exchange for title
Replies: 102
Views: 9215

Re: Parents want me to pay off their mortgage in exchange for title

It's an interesting chance to own something "worth" over 500k and pay 180k for it, but at the same time I wouldn't be drawing any income off of it. Wanted to get the opinions of this forum on such a deal. You wouldn't own it. You'd own the tail end of a life estate. Usually a life estate is granted...
by Lee_WSP
Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18803
Views: 2628762

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

firebirdparts wrote:
Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:36 am
This is the first semi-respectable down day we've seen in a while. There could still be a big rally at 3:30 though.
Finally. Valuations have been getting ahead of themselves.
by Lee_WSP
Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?
Replies: 386
Views: 32133

Re: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?

Stock prices. Real economy is not even going to be an L, it's cratering into the abyss. Wall Street doesn't seem to think it'll last long and since the vast majority of people who have the most money in the stock market aren't terribly affected by this (other than their favorite restaurant & gyms a...
by Lee_WSP
Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4911
Views: 424715

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Meaty wrote:
Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:14 pm
Thanks for sharing. That’s not too stellar given current interest rates.
No. That's why this strategy is a lot riskier than first appears.
by Lee_WSP
Sun Apr 19, 2020 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4911
Views: 424715

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

The bond bull seems like it juiced returns but the strategy still holds as long as we don’t get rapidly rising rates, right? It seems as long as UPRO/S&P trends upward over time and TMF/treasuries remain the asset of choice when their is a flight to safety we should be good to go. Assuming zero (no...
by Lee_WSP
Sun Apr 19, 2020 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?
Replies: 386
Views: 32133

Re: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?

It seems obvious that the current price reflects a bet that the recovery will be V shaped. What happens if it turns out it's U shaped instead?
by Lee_WSP
Fri Apr 17, 2020 11:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4911
Views: 424715

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

The rebalance points make a huge difference.
by Lee_WSP
Fri Apr 17, 2020 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5641
Views: 483038

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Does it seem to anyone else that the market is going up simply because there just isn't a better place to put excess capital? Or is this a suckers rally? I know there is no good alternative to stocks. What I'm having trouble figuring out is where the purchasing money is coming from. All of the mone...
by Lee_WSP
Fri Apr 17, 2020 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4911
Views: 424715

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Is the VIX even reliable as a forward indicator? Or does it only spike after stuff hits the fan? It is supposed to be an annualized forward looking estimate of the next 30 day's volatility, but staring at the VIX charts for a few hours does not instill me with much confidence in it's predictive cap...
by Lee_WSP
Fri Apr 17, 2020 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5641
Views: 483038

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

justsomeguy2018 wrote:
Fri Apr 17, 2020 5:38 pm
Does it seem to anyone else that the market is going up simply because there just isn't a better place to put excess capital? Or is this a suckers rally?
I know there is no good alternative to stocks. What I'm having trouble figuring out is where the purchasing money is coming from.
by Lee_WSP
Fri Apr 17, 2020 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5641
Views: 483038

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

But I think a lot of the job losses are temporary. There is a huge difference between being laid off because the government has temporarily shut down your industry and losing a job due to a general recession/depression, where a new job might be years in the future. The shutdown will be temporarily,...