Search found 313 matches

by reln
Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?
Replies: 45
Views: 4461

Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

I'll admit it. I'm extremely nervous in this COVID-19 environment. How bad is this going to get? Nobody knows, of course. Will it pass in a few months, and then the stock market will gradually recover? Will it get really ugly, both socially with lawlessness and rioting and economically with more th...
by reln
Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Talk me out of paying off mortgage
Replies: 58
Views: 3302

Re: Talk me out of paying off mortgage

I have a little over 11 years left on a 15 year note @ 2.875%. ~300K left. I'm a software engineer with 15 years at the same company. I wasn't furloughed and I think I'd be one of the last employees to be let go if things got worse. We've also started bringing people back. My wife is an underpaid t...
by reln
Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there any examples where money is not fungible?
Replies: 7
Views: 637

Re: Are there any examples where money is not fungible?

Oompadeedoo wrote:
Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:03 am
Ignore rare/collectors items like misprints or old coins
Not that I can think of.
by reln
Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons for Optimism about bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 2580

Re: Reasons for Optimism about bonds?

Thanks for the input. Bonds might not make much sense for me. I believe it was nisiprius, or another one of the old guard here, who encouraged me recently to maintain at least a small bond holding, if not only for the purpose of starting the habit of buying and holding them. To me, it doesn't make ...
by reln
Sun Jul 12, 2020 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons for Optimism about bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 2580

Re: Reasons for Optimism about bonds?

Thanks. Does your view extend to bonds of all durations? Yes. Mid to long duration bonds have a lot more interest rate sensitivity and can suffer significant capital loss if interest rates rise. But they have limited upside if interest rates decline because there isn't much lower they can go in the...
by reln
Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review - Open Taxable vs Pay Down Mortgage
Replies: 13
Views: 867

Re: Portfolio Review - Open Taxable vs Pay Down Mortgage

Good morning! My wife and I are long time lurkers of this site. We would love some advice on next financial steps. Basic Info: Emergency funds: 60K; we are hoping to have kids in the near future, so this amount is 12 months based on what I'm forecasting for daycare and increased healthcare costs. I...
by reln
Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Becoming teacher after reaching FIRE? Advice needed!
Replies: 66
Views: 3853

Re: Becoming teacher after reaching FIRE? Advice needed!

I'm thinking of going into teaching as a second career after reaching my $ target for FIRE - trying to make sure I consider every aspect of this move. Would appreciate any insights/advice from this community...especially teachers and those who have continued to work in a second career after reachin...
by reln
Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Delaying Social Security: is the wisdom still relevant
Replies: 96
Views: 6604

Re: Delaying Social Security: is the wisdom still relevant

It's generally considered the most economically sound approach: delaying SS as long as you can. 35 years ago I was convinced SSI wouldn't be around "when I get old" and there it is and I'm coming up on old (60). The world is more screwed up and predictably more unpredictable. If I had to bet--and I...
by reln
Sun Jul 12, 2020 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons for Optimism about bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 2580

Re: Reasons for Optimism about bonds?

Mid to long duration bonds have a lot more interest rate sensitivity and can suffer significant capital loss if interest rates rise. But they have limited upside if interest rates decline because there isn't much lower they can go in the US (the Fed has repeatedly said they don't support negative r...
by reln
Sun Jul 12, 2020 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons for Optimism about bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 2580

Re: Reasons for Optimism about bonds?

Hello all, I'm 31 and steadily building an all-equities portfolio from scratch (current portfolio is worth about $20k, all in VT, VTI, and their mutual fund equivalents, I started contributing small amounts in 2019 and picked up steam this year). I hold a small cash reserve (3 months of expenses), ...
by reln
Sun Jul 12, 2020 10:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which College degrees are worthwhile?
Replies: 228
Views: 13620

Re: Which College degrees are worthwhile?

alex123711 wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 10:26 pm
Which degrees are still worthwhile/ likely to lead to employment these days?
Medical
Bioinformatics
Chemistry (and other hard sciences)
Math\Stats\Comp Sci
Law
Education
Accounting
Mortuary

I'm sure there are other good choices I missed.
by reln
Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons for Optimism about bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 2580

Re: Reasons for Optimism about bonds?

Hello all, I'm 31 and steadily building an all-equities portfolio from scratch (current portfolio is worth about $20k, all in VT, VTI, and their mutual fund equivalents, I started contributing small amounts in 2019 and picked up steam this year). I hold a small cash reserve (3 months of expenses), ...
by reln
Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons for Optimism about bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 2580

Re: Reasons for Optimism about bonds?

Hello all, I'm 31 and steadily building an all-equities portfolio from scratch (current portfolio is worth about $20k, all in VT, VTI, and their mutual fund equivalents, I started contributing small amounts in 2019 and picked up steam this year). I hold a small cash reserve (3 months of expenses), ...
by reln
Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Have I reach the Need for an Umbrella Policy?
Replies: 24
Views: 1502

Re: Have I reach the Need for an Umbrella Policy?

Hello All, Thanks for helping with this issue. I was reading the latest AARP magazine and they had a section on insurances. One that resonated with me is the need for an Umbrella Policy to protect you after your auto or homeowners’ policies were overwhelmed. I am trying to review my situation to de...
by reln
Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Bond Allocation based on Size of Portfolio rather than Age
Replies: 5
Views: 951

Re: Stock Bond Allocation based on Size of Portfolio rather than Age

I have been thinking about this for a long time and I find this an interesting proposal for people that are early in their investing careers (with perhaps 25+ years until retirement age) Instead of basing your stock/bond allocation on age, wouldn't it be more prudent and aligned to your investing g...
by reln
Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I tilt toward small. But why would tilting toward value likely persistently outperform total stock market?
Replies: 39
Views: 1977

Re: I tilt toward small. But why would tilting toward value likely persistently outperform total stock market?

I understand some folks on the board do value and small tilting, and some even do more factor investing (e.g., momentum). I roughly have an idea why small-cap is more likely to outperform total stock market persistently in the long run: Because a small-cap company is inherently riskier than their l...
by reln
Sat Jul 11, 2020 10:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Too much in savings?
Replies: 67
Views: 6349

Re: Too much in savings?

Background (my wife and I combined): Age: 38 Income: 550-600k No debt except home mortgage (175k on home worth 380k) We max out 401k's, backdoor Roth's. Put $600 monthly split into 2 children's 529 (purposely don't max out bc don't like the lack of flexibility associated w it). We have 1.1m in Ally...
by reln
Sat Jul 11, 2020 4:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Strategies around dividends
Replies: 16
Views: 1654

Re: Strategies around dividends

Please point me to a resource on how to strategize around dividends. I am in a 24% federal and 9.3% state tax bracket, so the difference in tax on qualified vs. non-qualified is substantial. (As a side note,I can't figure out how much tax I will pay on dividends, qualified or not, in my "beloved" s...
by reln
Fri Jul 10, 2020 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2007 to 2020: The changing advice of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street"
Replies: 67
Views: 10544

Re: 2007 to 2020: The changing advice of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street"

The 2020 Edition of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" has been released. This book was (and still is) brilliant and I value it immensely. But I thought it would be interesting to compare it to some of the previous editions, given that Dr. Malkiel's advice continues to fluctuate (or evolve) for inves...
by reln
Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"
Replies: 55
Views: 5953

Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Bogleheads: Dan Sotiroff, a passive strategies research analyst for Morningstar, has written an insightful article about foreign stock funds with these observations and suggestions: "They've (foreign stocks) underperformed by around 6%-7% in aggregate. That's sort of just a continuing story of what...
by reln
Tue Jul 07, 2020 5:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to invest 6,000 in a 3 fund portfolio when admiral shares have a minimal balance of 3,000?
Replies: 27
Views: 2193

Re: How to invest 6,000 in a 3 fund portfolio when admiral shares have a minimal balance of 3,000?

Hey all, First time investor here, so please don't roast me too horribly :) I want to start a roth IRA and max it out for the year before the July 15th deadline. I was curious about what would be the best way to invest in a traditional 3 fund portfolio when admiral shares have a minimal balance of ...
by reln
Tue Jul 07, 2020 5:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it really matter when you claim Social Security
Replies: 109
Views: 8948

Re: Does it really matter when you claim Social Security

tvubpwcisla wrote:
Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:29 pm
I am currently planning to start taking Social Security benefits at the full retirement age of 67.

At what age did you start taking SS and does it really matter in the grand scheme of things?

:confused
I plan on taking it at 70.

Yes, it matters.
by reln
Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA CREF Monte Carlo Simulations
Replies: 30
Views: 1399

Re: TIAA CREF Monte Carlo Simulations

I met back in last Nov. and this January with a TIAA-CREF Financial Advisor in preparation for retirement for the next few years. (I had sent him all the data requested, and was disappointed when the first meeting was just a meet and greet, with little substance, so we had to go back in January.) I...
by reln
Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?
Replies: 117
Views: 8311

Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

Hello Everyone, Does anyone worry about "missing out" because you are only invested in the 3-fund portfolio and hot tips abound? My brother made a killing in TSLA just today. Our portfolio is going to be up as well, of course, but not likely to the extent that he (brother) is. I would never take th...
by reln
Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simple retirement plan. Crazy idea?
Replies: 49
Views: 5565

Re: Simple retirement plan. Crazy idea?

To be clear, I don't plan to do this and I'm throwing it out there for people to take potshots at. Fire away! Let's say Social Security will cover 2/3 of your required income needs in retirement. And let's say with half of your retirement assets you could buy a SPIA that would cover the other 1/3 o...
by reln
Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Won’t 2020-2030 Stock Returns Look Like 2009-2019?
Replies: 35
Views: 3078

Re: Won’t 2020-2030 Stock Returns Look Like 2009-2019?

02nz wrote:
Sat Jul 04, 2020 2:11 pm
No. One. Knows.
Beautiful
by reln
Sat Jul 04, 2020 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investment a competition?
Replies: 43
Views: 2406

Re: Is investment a competition?

Recently I've been thinking about this: It does not matter how well my portfolio/strategy works. What really matters is how well other people (particularly in my local area) do. Because eventually the cost of living and my relative buying power depends on how much the majority makes. I always sell ...
by reln
Sat Jul 04, 2020 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What to do with all this MONEY ?
Replies: 201
Views: 20722

Re: What to do with all this MONEY ?

Sometimes this thought comes in my mind, I know a little strange . I & DW come from humble beginnings & after decades of hard work, living below our means, savings & favorable Wall Street investments we find ourselves with a net worth of $ 7.5 m. We are very fortunate & we never thought we would fi...
by reln
Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 322
Views: 18364

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

You really think something that has basically succeeded 100% of time throughout history is now only 50% likely to succeed? Nobody can really be that pessimistic. Answer: yes. Source: M* research. Follow up: 4% rule success is a powerfully held myth. It's only worked in cherry picked data. Depending...
by reln
Thu Jul 02, 2020 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: EBITDAC: earnings as if there were no coronavirus. How worried should I be?
Replies: 11
Views: 963

Re: EBITDAC: earnings as if there were no coronavirus. How worried should I be?

I was disquieted by this episode of "The Indicator from Planet Money," about corporate bonds: Liar Loans: Companies are faking their numbers to avoid default ...So to avoid breaking its covenant, which required that Punch Taverns make a certain amount of money, they agreed with their lenders to rep...
by reln
Thu Jul 02, 2020 10:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: considering paying cash for house- What would you do?
Replies: 54
Views: 3665

Re: considering paying cash for house- What would you do?

Hello everyone, We are buying a new house which won't be done until for a couple of months. The cost is 260k in a low to medium cost of living city. We are planning on taking out a mortgage with 20% down and have been quoted 3.0% fixed rate on a 30. We have roughly that amount in our taxable accoun...
by reln
Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 322
Views: 18364

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

How many here are very confident that the 4% rule works for a 30 year period in the current environment? How many here would be confident enough to pursue this withdrawal themselves and put it as part of their definitive plans? I do know there are those that aren't, i'm looking for the other side o...
by reln
Wed Jul 01, 2020 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 322
Views: 18364

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

How many here are very confident that the 4% rule works for a 30 year period in the current environment? How many here would be confident enough to pursue this withdrawal themselves and put it as part of their definitive plans? I do know there are those that aren't, i'm looking for the other side o...
by reln
Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 322
Views: 18364

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

How many here are very confident that the 4% rule works for a 30 year period in the current environment? How many here would be confident enough to pursue this withdrawal themselves and put it as part of their definitive plans? I do know there are those that aren't, i'm looking for the other side o...
by reln
Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to analyze having a paid-off mortgage in retirement?
Replies: 104
Views: 6417

Re: How to analyze having a paid-off mortgage in retirement?

It's pretty common to have a goal of paying off your mortgage by retirement. But why? Obviously it reduces your expenses, but it also reduces the size of your nest egg. It's possible that it's better financially to have the larger nest egg. How would you determine which alternative is better? How w...
by reln
Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 18966

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

As I write this post, Vanguard's total-market ex-US fund VTIAX/VXUS is trading below its price of 9.5 years ago . In the same timeframe, Vanguard's total US market VTSAX/VTI nearly tripled in price, even after the recent hit of COVID-19. Ex-US returns have been simply abysmal for the past decade. V...
by reln
Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Critique my dividend retirement portfolio
Replies: 22
Views: 1112

Re: Critique my dividend retirement portfolio

Age: 40 Liquid Net worth: 4.7 million. 4 million in taxable brokerage account. 500k IRA. 250k in cash. Paid off house: 700k Will be moving to a no income tax state within the next 2-3 years. My goal is to invest in high quality dividend etfs and live off the dividend payments without having to ever...
by reln
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for verification on Annuity pitch...
Replies: 80
Views: 4957

Re: Looking for verification on Annuity pitch...

Looking through all the existing threads on this matter, I believe I know the answer... just want to verify. I have a 401k from a former employer that was sitting in an account over at Principal. Long story short, we had a friend recommend their financial advisor over at Ameriprise. Looks like this...
by reln
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: At what point can you justify a $10k+ flight?
Replies: 75
Views: 4604

Re: At what point can you justify a $10k+ flight?

I’ve taken in the past business class flights for almost $5k (only twice) and it was a total delight given that the flights were over 12 hours each way. I think $5k is reasonable but at what point in your budget can you justify spending over $10k on a roundtrip flight when the same flight on Coach ...
by reln
Sat Jun 27, 2020 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Target Date Funds doing it backwards?
Replies: 68
Views: 7972

Re: Target Date Funds doing it backwards?

Is this just another article trying to push people towards investment advisors? They do say nothing can overcome inadequate saving ( over your working life ) or retiring too early. They didn't mention how difficult it can be for many to actually continue working as long as they'd like. "Paul Merrim...
by reln
Fri Jun 26, 2020 7:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I Headed for a Retirement Tax Bomb?
Replies: 66
Views: 9399

Re: Am I Headed for a Retirement Tax Bomb?

My S/O and I are approximately 10-12 years away from retirement. Here are our current projections at full retirement: $1.5m in pre-tax 401k's $750k invested in stocks in post-tax brokerage account $250k in cash reserves ~ $6k per month combined SS draw beginning at 70 We are currently barely hittin...
by reln
Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Target Date Funds doing it backwards?
Replies: 68
Views: 7972

Re: Target Date Funds doing it backwards?

Is this just another article trying to push people towards investment advisors? They do say nothing can overcome inadequate saving ( over your working life ) or retiring too early. They didn't mention how difficult it can be for many to actually continue working as long as they'd like. "Paul Merrim...
by reln
Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taleb: The coronavirus is not a black swan.
Replies: 81
Views: 7853

Re: Taleb: The coronavirus is not a black swan.

Does it matter which it is? For the sake of clear communication it would be nice to have arbitrary phrases mean one specific thing rather than any number of things. All definitions of black swan events will fail that test, which is why this thread exists. Can you share your proof? It is based on su...
by reln
Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dividends = Forced Stock Sale
Replies: 13
Views: 1057

Re: Dividends = Forced Stock Sale

Hello again Bogleheads, So I while I am accumulating VTI and Bonds according to to my asset allocation I use some fun money for other stocks, some of them dividend paying stocks. Which brings me to my question. The general consensus on here is that dividend stocks, or chasing them rather, is a fool...
by reln
Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What On Earth To Do With Cash in Taxable Needed in 1-3 Years
Replies: 25
Views: 2813

Re: What On Earth To Do With Cash in Taxable Needed in 1-3 Years

I think I've posted something similar before, and I apologize if this is being asked a lot. But if you have a large amount of cash in a taxable account, which you'll need between 1 and 3 years from now, how do you find a decent interest rate for it?! It was all in VUSXX, but now that pays 0.1%.. Sa...
by reln
Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Staying the course
Replies: 10
Views: 895

Re: Staying the course

Supposed you have enough money for retirement, lets say 10m. And you decide to pick 80-90% equity as part of your investment plan. Would you stay the course in extreme risk event such as ww3, infectious disease completely out of control like in movies or other similar situations? Is there a situati...
by reln
Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taleb: The coronavirus is not a black swan.
Replies: 81
Views: 7853

Re: Taleb: The coronavirus is not a black swan.

Northern Flicker wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:34 am
reln wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:00 pm
Northern Flicker wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:07 am
Does it matter which it is?
For the sake of clear communication it would be nice to have arbitrary phrases mean one specific thing rather than any number of things.
All definitions of black swan events will fail that test, which is why this thread exists.
Can you share your proof?
by reln
Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Optimal withdrawal strategy??
Replies: 14
Views: 1626

Re: Optimal withdrawal strategy??

Fellow Bogleheads, I've been trying to determine an optimal withdrawal strategy , now that I've reached retirement. Another thread mentioned the work of Dr. William Reichenstein, however the academic papers of his, and a couple of slide presentations that I found online have been tough sledding for...
by reln
Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taleb: The coronavirus is not a black swan.
Replies: 81
Views: 7853

Re: Taleb: The coronavirus is not a black swan.

Northern Flicker wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:07 am
Does it matter which it is?
For the sake of clear communication it would be nice to have arbitrary phrases mean one specific thing rather than any number of things.