Search found 128 matches

by schismal
Sat Oct 12, 2019 4:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NTSX discussion: compared to VOO
Replies: 49
Views: 2181

Re: NTSX discussion: compared to VOO

Since NTSX tries to behave like 90/60 stocks/bonds, it can't be equated to the S&P 500 at all. WisdomTree has explained that comparison to a 100% equity position is a valid use-case of their fund. Use Cases For The WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund My starting point was very technical and specifi...
by schismal
Sat Oct 05, 2019 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 1257
Views: 75581

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

MotoTrojan wrote:
Sat Oct 05, 2019 9:03 am
You need to understand the mechanics before plunging into this and unfortunately it seems you do not.
The original thread discussed all of this in great detail, and the fact that it was split has led to a lot of confusion. I suggest that newcomers review the initial thread (link in OP).
by schismal
Fri Oct 04, 2019 5:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Press Release 10/1/19--Vanguard Adds To Its Active Lineup With Launch Of International Core Stock Fund
Replies: 68
Views: 6716

Re: Press Release 10/1/19--Vanguard Adds To Its Active Lineup With Launch Of International Core Stock Fund

Nate79 wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:25 pm
Vanguard continues it's long tradition of very strong support for active funds. Unfortunate that some people misunderstand Vanguard (and Bogle) as a purely Index fund company.
The Boglehead obsession with simplicity often oversimplifies the man himself.
by schismal
Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 1257
Views: 75581

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

caklim00 wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:10 am
Anyone ever consider Pimcostocksplus small: PSCSX https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/pscsx/quote
All of its outperformance came from 2009-10. After that, it's been dead even with IJR.
by schismal
Tue Oct 01, 2019 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 1257
Views: 75581

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Has anyone run any numbers on ideal rebalancing strategy for someone in a taxable account? Right now I'm relying solely on individual contributions to rebalance (adding $1k twice a month, current balance around $12k) and plan to rely solely on that at least until a year has passed so that any gains...
by schismal
Tue Oct 01, 2019 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 1257
Views: 75581

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Has anyone run any numbers on ideal rebalancing strategy for someone in a taxable account? Right now I'm relying solely on individual contributions to rebalance (adding $1k twice a month, current balance around $12k) and plan to rely solely on that at least until a year has passed so that any gains...
by schismal
Thu Sep 26, 2019 4:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 1257
Views: 75581

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

dsenx - doubleline shiller enhanced cape is leveraged fund that reflects 100 percent stock and 85 percent bonds. Interesting. Unlike PIMCO, this one is available through BrokerageLink. Looks like DSENX is available at no cost (ER=0.82), and the institutional version (DSEEX, ER=0.57) is available fo...
by schismal
Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Siegel Wisdom Tree ETFs
Replies: 20
Views: 1930

Re: Jeremy Siegel Wisdom Tree ETFs

In interviews ( LINK ), WisdomTree has acknowledged that NTSX can be used as a hedged equity strategy to mimic returns of a 100% S&P 500 position with less market risk. I think trying to pigeon-hole the fund into a single use-case is a bit misguided, and choosing the applicable benchmark depending o...
by schismal
Thu Sep 19, 2019 4:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 296
Views: 30321

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

For those asking about the effective duration of the bond portion, I just noticed that WisdomTree publishes this on their fund page: LINK

As of last week, the effective treasury duration was just over 7 years.
by schismal
Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 1257
Views: 75581

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Since the theorycrafting has largely stopped for now, an update: My Roth is split between the 55/45 allocation and PSLDX. I threw $2k in taxable a few months ago, at 50% UPRO, 25% TMF, 25% EDV. I am not making further contributions, but I'll rebalance with new money for as long as feasible. Have yo...
by schismal
Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity 401k automatically convert after-tax balances to Roth?
Replies: 19
Views: 1055

Re: Fidelity 401k automatically convert after-tax balances to Roth?

My employer has this capability with Fidelity. You can (and should) call to set up the automatic in-plan Roth conversion. After that, all after-tax dollars are automatically converted to Roth money and retained inside the 401k, so there will be no taxes on the Roth conversion. If you then want to mo...
by schismal
Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 1257
Views: 75581

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Since the theorycrafting has largely stopped for now, an update:

My Roth is split between the 55/45 allocation and PSLDX.

I threw $2k in taxable a few months ago, at 50% UPRO, 25% TMF, 25% EDV. I am not making further contributions, but I'll rebalance with new money for as long as feasible.
by schismal
Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17040

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

It is easier to accept the size factor, almost anyone can understand and accept it. Value premium on the other hand is more involved, you need to understand cost of capital, and financial statements among other things. Then there is the whole question of Value as defined by FF vs. Value as defined ...
by schismal
Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17040

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

If you're arguing small value has been better in the US (or at least not much worse) in the last decade, then there's really no compelling argument one way or the other. I'm not sure why "past 10 years" is a sacrosanct timeframe when Vanguard has had a small cap value fund since the late 90's that ...
by schismal
Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17040

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

This fallacy keeps on getting repeated here, hat Value has performed better overseas. Just because there are no Intl SCG Index funds in existence over the same period. I cleared this yesterday with another poster. Since DFA introduced their Intl SCG funds and Intl LCG funds, they have outperformed ...
by schismal
Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17040

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

This is incorrect. U.S. small value (represented by IJS here) has pretty much followed the total market movements until around the middle of 2017. Similar return, but IJS had much greater volatility ( 8.8% vs 13.8%). Yup. Whether small value is above TSM, below it, or right beside it, you'll have a...
by schismal
Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17040

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

You should do more research before picking funds for comparison. DLS and DISVX has almost nothing in emerging markets, while Vanguard Total International consistently has had around 20%. Please find an apples to apples comparison. Of course an all small cap developed ex-US beat an ex-US fund primar...
by schismal
Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17040

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

Because value has underperformed for the last 12 years pretty much worldwide. This is incorrect. U.S. small value ( represented by IJS here ) has pretty much followed the total market movements until around the middle of 2017. Any significant underperformance is pretty much limited to the last ~2 y...
by schismal
Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17040

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

2008-2014 Small cap: CAGR 9.47% Small cap value: CAGR 9.53% Total market: CAGR 7.60% Pretty much a tie between Small and Small Value. That's true in several time periods. I don't have Larry's factor book in front of me to pull the correlation between size and value. I do find it interesting that th...
by schismal
Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 296
Views: 30321

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

I have also been studying this fund and am interested in adding it to my taxable account. 1) For those of you who are using the fund how do you calculate the bond portion for your AA (I’m 80/20 and currently have the 20% bonds in tax advantaged but curious how this fund would effect my AA) 2) Readi...
by schismal
Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 296
Views: 30321

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

Which funds do you use to look at the past 30 years? From playing with PV, results seem very different based on the maturit of the bond (IEF, VFITX, VUSTX) Which is the average bond maturity of NSTX? Couldn't find this info US 5YR NOTE (CBT) DEC19 XCBT 20191231 = 13.02% US 10YR ULTRA FUT DEC19 XCBT...
by schismal
Mon Sep 16, 2019 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17040

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

Overlapping 6 year interval performance, since the inception of Vanguard's small cap value fund. NAESX = Vanguard small cap VISVX = Vanguard small cap value VTSMX = Vanguard total market 1999-2005 Small cap: CAGR 9.21% Small cap value: CAGR 11.99% Total market: CAGR 2.89% 2002-2008 Small cap: CAGR 1...
by schismal
Mon Sep 16, 2019 5:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best International Small Cap Option
Replies: 56
Views: 8693

Re: Best International Small Cap Option

What’s the issue with DLS in taxable? 97% of its dividends were qualified last year.

(DGS was around 50%)
by schismal
Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multifactor vs specialized factor funds
Replies: 15
Views: 942

Re: Multifactor vs specialized factor funds

For what it's worth Rob Arnott in his interview with Christine Benz in The Longview podcast suggested the Multifactor funds will likely underperform due to the relatively high valuations of momentum, and other components dragging down the expected returns from the cheap value stocks in the portfoli...
by schismal
Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 264
Views: 28631

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

A bit sad I am in VSIAX via my 401k and not VIOV... but the replacement for VIOV in my Roth has a >90% XIRR currently so I think I'll survive :twisted: . PSSIX is the best I can do in my 403, but it's still had a decent week. I believe I have access to the Vanguard Tax-managed Small-cap in mine whi...
by schismal
Thu Sep 12, 2019 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multifactor vs specialized factor funds
Replies: 15
Views: 942

Re: Multifactor vs specialized factor funds

In general yes. Below is an essay by Cliff Asness of AQR on the subject. https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/Looking-for-the-Intuition-Underlying-Multi-Factor-Stock-Selection Dave Interesting discussion. I don't want to pick on any specific multifactor fund, largely because even the longest-r...
by schismal
Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 264
Views: 28631

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:04 pm
A bit sad I am in VSIAX via my 401k and not VIOV... but the replacement for VIOV in my Roth has a >90% XIRR currently so I think I'll survive :twisted: .
PSSIX is the best I can do in my 403, but it's still had a decent week.
by schismal
Thu Sep 12, 2019 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 296
Views: 30321

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

rascott wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 11:16 am
schismal wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:16 am
guyinlaw wrote:
Sun Sep 08, 2019 4:56 pm
AUM is 14M has grown 3 times since earlier this year. Typically a fund is in trouble if under 5M. (search ETF death watch).
AUM is now 36M.
BHs should get a sales commission!
You listening, WisdomTree? ;)
by schismal
Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17040

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

Elysium wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:14 am
Congratulations, is there a point somewhere in there?
That you were asked to defend your incorrect "consensus" assertion and evaded? I think the point is self-evident.
by schismal
Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 296
Views: 30321

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

guyinlaw wrote:
Sun Sep 08, 2019 4:56 pm
AUM is 14M has grown 3 times since earlier this year. Typically a fund is in trouble if under 5M. (search ETF death watch).
AUM is now 36M.
by schismal
Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17040

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

This forum has been examining whether various tilts were worthwhile and the consensus is still that it isn't. There is a large silent majority on this forum who have no interest in any of this. The vast number of new posters who come here seeking advice can't even understand basic investing ideas l...
by schismal
Thu Sep 12, 2019 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multifactor vs specialized factor funds
Replies: 15
Views: 942

Multifactor vs specialized factor funds

Is an all-cap combined multifactor approach superior to holding one or more specialized factor funds? To simplify the discussion, I'll use Vanguard's multifactor fund (VFMF) as a prototypical example, specifically because of its approximate 1/3 large, 1/3 mid, 1/3 small cap structure. I'm also aware...
by schismal
Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 264
Views: 28631

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

The historical data said that momentum and small value are negatively correlated. As a holder of both MTUM and VIOV, I'm seeing that on full display this week.
by schismal
Mon Sep 09, 2019 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17040

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

Except if you underweight stocks expecting small value to outperform and make up for the underweighting, it does costs you a lot. Someone with the Larry Portfolio of 30/70 small value/bonds has done FAR worse than someone with a standard 60/40 TSM/bonds. Because not only has small value trailed TSM...
by schismal
Sun Sep 08, 2019 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Leveraged ETFs vs. Bogleheads Investment Philosophy]
Replies: 113
Views: 4462

Re: [Leveraged ETFs vs. Bogleheads Investment Philosophy]

Censorship to would be a disturbing trend. Do we next ban discussion of factor tilting? Delete the NTSX thread? Forbid talk of margin accounts and futures?

This forum has little reason to exist if everyone holds the same 3 funds.
by schismal
Sat Sep 07, 2019 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 296
Views: 30321

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

I hold NTSX in taxable alongside SCV and momentum funds. So far, I'm quite happy. Obviously anything could happen, but I'm skeptical that WisdomTree would close their top performing ETF over the past year, even if the AUM isn't as high as we'd like to see. With the recent interest rate drops, the fu...
by schismal
Fri Sep 06, 2019 3:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: M1 Finance
Replies: 22
Views: 1760

Re: M1 Finance

I am using it for my variant of Hedgefundie's excellent adventure (I am 43/57 UPRO/EDV) and today just surpassed $30K invested; I would have no qualms about holding this into the $M's. It is a very interesting system. I think it is actually even better than Vanguard or similar brokerages for those ...
by schismal
Fri Sep 06, 2019 3:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: M1 Finance
Replies: 22
Views: 1760

Re: M1 Finance

I put in a rebalance order last Saturday. The first trading day was Tuesday. It's Friday now, and the trade still hasn't executed yet. This may not be the issue, but be aware that you have to actually click the "rebalance" button in order to execute the trade(s). Simply editing the pie ratios won't...
by schismal
Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: M1 Finance
Replies: 22
Views: 1760

Re: M1 Finance

I put in a rebalance order last Saturday. The first trading day was Tuesday. It's Friday now, and the trade still hasn't executed yet. This may not be the issue, but be aware that you have to actually click the "rebalance" button in order to execute the trade(s). Simply editing the pie ratios won't...
by schismal
Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 fund people how are you feeling?
Replies: 112
Views: 13006

Re: Past Performance: Returns and Risk

The TSMI went down roughly 50% not once, but twice, in the prior decade. I'm sorry, but your arguments don't hold water, regarding risk. And you keep repeating "10 years ago".... well the 10 yr performance of the two is virtually identical. So what are you referring to? I was not sure what TSMI was...
by schismal
Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 fund people how are you feeling?
Replies: 112
Views: 13006

Re: Past Performance: Returns and Risk

Not sure why you would ignore the last 12 months. Those returns are just as important as any other time period. Isn't the whole historical SCV out performance due to brief periods of really good returns relative to the broader market? If we ignore those time periods there is no SCV premium either. ...
by schismal
Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 fund people how are you feeling?
Replies: 112
Views: 13006

Re: Past Performance: Returns and Risk

You are right that past performance does not predict "future returns". However, past performance can often predict "risk." This is the reason I emphasize the recent dismal performance of the Small-Cap Value stocks. Absolutely agreed that past performance can and should be used to estimate risk. And...
by schismal
Wed Sep 04, 2019 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 296
Views: 30321

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

70/30 with agg bonds, beating Vanguard balanced fund https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0....
by schismal
Wed Sep 04, 2019 5:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 fund people how are you feeling?
Replies: 112
Views: 13006

Re: Feeling Good.

I took a look today at Morningstar's 3-year returns for the U.S. Market (12.43%) vs. U.S. Small-Value (2.69%). As someone who has read and benefited greatly from Taylor's books, it does strike me as somewhat contradictory that he sometimes repeats the (obviously correct) mantra that past performanc...
by schismal
Wed Sep 04, 2019 5:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 296
Views: 30321

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

**Copying this conversation from another thread so we keep things on topic** I've been playing around with this using Portfolio Visualizer. One problem I'm having is estimating the duration of the treasury exposure in NTSX. According to these weights, the average duration would be the weighted durat...
by schismal
Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 290
Views: 19033

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

I've been playing around with this using Portfolio Visualizer. One problem I'm having is estimating the duration of the treasury exposure in NTSX. According to these weights, the average duration would be the weighted duration of the 2, 5, 10, and 30- year futures that it holds. Is this a correct a...
by schismal
Sat Aug 31, 2019 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 290
Views: 19033

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

The prevailing recommendation is against holding LTTs in taxable accounts -- let's use EDV as an extreme example. But if one were limited on tax advantaged space, would you alter this recommendation? You can improve your tax efficiency in taxable accounts, through futures which are 60% LT capital g...
by schismal
Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 290
Views: 19033

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

We haven't really touched on tax efficient placement yet for this rule of thumb.

The prevailing recommendation is against holding LTTs in taxable accounts -- let's use EDV as an extreme example. But if one were limited on tax advantaged space, would you alter this recommendation?
by schismal
Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 1257
Views: 75581

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Question, for others who are more knowledgeable.. I get it that doing quarterly rebalancing will trigger STCG, but if doing annual (yeah cAGR may not be as good as quarterly or lookback monthly) but, wont that mean LTCG? I am asking because I have close to 100K vested into this in taxable, if (hope...
by schismal
Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Investors Making A Killing
Replies: 85
Views: 9988

Re: Bond Investors Making A Killing

StDev since 2009 (when EDV was created):

BSV: 1.49%
BIV: 4.36%
BLV: 8.85%
EDV: 20.54%

S&P500: 13.76%

I quite like EDV, but Vanguard's risk advisement seems completely appropriate. ;)