Search found 1050 matches

by CoastalWinds
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 64658

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

The market soars again... maybe the bottom is behind us? But it seems unfathomable to have a V-shaped recovery while the virus continues to spread. The US has now exceeded 70,000 cases and could pass China within a week for the dubious #1 spot. I don’t get it. I think the bottom is behind us. Lots ...
by CoastalWinds
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20240
Views: 2763210

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Is it reasonable to assume that the market has now priced in the stimulus bill? I’m a little surprised to see it going up 3 days in a row, to the tune of nearly 20%, when it has known all along this would pass and what’s in it. It’s going to need some more juice to keep moving up. Where will that ju...
by CoastalWinds
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20240
Views: 2763210

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

So, we’re to believe that a 24% Market haircut from already-lofty valuations had priced in a record 3.3M in new unemployment claims?
by CoastalWinds
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 64658

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

The market soars again... maybe the bottom is behind us? But it seems unfathomable to have a V-shaped recovery while the virus continues to spread. The US has now exceeded 70,000 cases and could pass China within a week for the dubious #1 spot. I don’t get it.
by CoastalWinds
Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to convert from target date to 3 fund?
Replies: 6
Views: 600

Re: Best way to convert from target date to 3 fund?

The target date funds are actually comprised of 4 funds, the 4th category being international bonds. There isn’t a strong consensus here that these are needed or worthwhile, so you could consider rolling that portion into TBM.
by CoastalWinds
Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Housing Crisis 2.0
Replies: 6
Views: 1252

Re: Housing Crisis 2.0

Real estate is very local, so I suspect price declines will vary considerably by region and city. That being said, with unemployment spiking and poised to only increase further in the coming weeks, I don’t see any way that housing goes unscathed.
by CoastalWinds
Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 64658

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Put me in the camp that thinks the worst is still to come.
by CoastalWinds
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munis getting slaughtered!
Replies: 194
Views: 18724

Re: Munis getting slaughtered!

I just can’t sell out enough to purge munis to buy treasuries right now. I’m not a fan of sell low to buy high for a yield that sucks and a NAV that will most likely drop. No thank you. I certainly won’t make corrections in the midst of market turmoil. The rumor of the death of munis has been great...
by CoastalWinds
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts
Replies: 24
Views: 2131

Re: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts

I anticipate unemployment claims will be ~ 2.5 million. And that markets won’t be happy as they are forced to re-calibrate.
by CoastalWinds
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 8936
Views: 710302

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

willthrill81 wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:48 am
Stef wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:46 am Why are we seeing +9%?
Remember Friday, March 13th? The market was trading on misplaced hope then. I suspect that today is more of the same.
I agree. This has me re-thinking just how “smart” the market is.
by CoastalWinds
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munis getting slaughtered!
Replies: 194
Views: 18724

Re: Munis getting slaughtered!

Munis making a comeback today! Risk on today plus fed buying bonds including munis I think. Tomorrow we may lose that plus more. What happens tomorrow? People will realize that the stimulus doesn’t reduce infections, deaths, entire industries from being shut down and we will go back to being on tra...
by CoastalWinds
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munis getting slaughtered!
Replies: 194
Views: 18724

Re: Munis getting slaughtered!

am wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:25 am
CoastalWinds wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:23 am Munis making a comeback today!
Risk on today plus fed buying bonds including munis I think. Tomorrow we may lose that plus more.
What happens tomorrow?
by CoastalWinds
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munis getting slaughtered!
Replies: 194
Views: 18724

Re: Munis getting slaughtered!

Munis making a comeback today!
by CoastalWinds
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 9212

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

Just reflecting here. It’s pretty incredible that, in the span of a few short weeks, we went from one of the best economies in the history of the US to a recession that will rival the Great Depression. It's an indicator of how important consumer spending is now. And a reminder of why its bad to rel...
by CoastalWinds
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 9212

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

Just reflecting here. It’s pretty incredible that, in the span of a few short weeks, we went from one of the best economies in the history of the US to a recession that will rival the Great Depression.
by CoastalWinds
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:11 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 196592

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

So I said this in another thread but I’ll say it here. I believe we will be back to work within 2-3 weeks. People in this country do not have the appetite for sitting around their house all day every day seeing nobody but their spouse or children. We as a nation are just not cut out for this type o...
by CoastalWinds
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Leave bond fund for money fund, or ride it out? Widow question
Replies: 15
Views: 1738

Re: Leave bond fund for money fund, or ride it out? Widow question

The Fed has stepped in to buy corporate bonds, which have been the “bad boy” in the aggregate bond index. So, help is on the way for price relief. I would hold them.
by CoastalWinds
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 8936
Views: 710302

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I wonder if tomorrow’s futures are up only b/c of the news of a possible short-lived shutdown regardless of the spread of the pandemic.
by CoastalWinds
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Housing Market Response in this environment?
Replies: 57
Views: 7547

Re: Housing Market Response in this environment?

I don’t think it’s been priced in. I read and heard from real estate agent friends in LA and Boston that it’s really busy in that lots of people are looking (pre-approved, low interest rates, and tight inventories) but also nervous (not lots of offers being made and some showings cancelled with the...
by CoastalWinds
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stupid economic question about this crisis
Replies: 10
Views: 1158

Re: Stupid economic question about this crisis

firebirdparts wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:06 pm Banks are fragile, because they put all their money at risk as much as they are allowed, and frankly, they do it with people of average intelligence.
This made me smile ... it is awesome!
by CoastalWinds
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stupid economic question about this crisis
Replies: 10
Views: 1158

Re: Stupid economic question about this crisis

Unless the cost of everything goes to zero, how is it “relative” for those who lose their job and income?
by CoastalWinds
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munis getting slaughtered!
Replies: 194
Views: 18724

Re: Munis getting slaughtered!

watchnerd wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:06 pm
CoastalWinds wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:02 pm I’d rather munis not have this dubious distinction. But I can’t say I’m surprised it happened. After all, I bought it, so it was destined. That and the VG energy fund.
That's the spirit!
Heck yea, let it tank!
by CoastalWinds
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munis getting slaughtered!
Replies: 194
Views: 18724

Re: Munis getting slaughtered!

I’d rather munis not have this dubious distinction. But I can’t say I’m surprised it happened. After all, I bought it, so it was destined. That and the VG energy fund.
by CoastalWinds
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting in 0 percent capital gains bracket
Replies: 10
Views: 616

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting in 0 percent capital gains bracket

I would be tax gain harvesting if I were in the 0% bracket.
by CoastalWinds
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munis getting slaughtered!
Replies: 194
Views: 18724

Re: Munis getting slaughtered!

I’m holding tight with VWIUX.
by CoastalWinds
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is living near power lines ok or bad?
Replies: 60
Views: 3270

Re: Is living near power lines ok or bad?

Keep in mind that, in the US, things are typically assumed to be safe until proven otherwise. This is a large burden to overcome. Numerous scientific studies have recommended caution / reasonable avoidance based on observations of a possible or probable increase of health effects risk including canc...
by CoastalWinds
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying estimated tax with credit card... how to come out ahead
Replies: 12
Views: 1003

Re: Paying estimated tax with credit card... how to come out ahead

whodidntante wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:47 pm The best way is to open a new CC that includes a new account bonus worth several hundred dollars, and use that card.
Any suggestions?
by CoastalWinds
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 3 fund portfolio: Does it matter where I put international?
Replies: 3
Views: 321

Re: 3 fund portfolio: Does it matter where I put international?

Pros of putting Intl in taxable account: -you can claim the Foreign tax credit -Ability to TLH Cons of putting Intl in taxable account: -Higher dividend yield % = more taxable income -typically, a higher % of the dividends are not qualified = higher tax rate on those dividends So, you should assess ...
by CoastalWinds
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: For those timing the market right now, what are your criteria for getting back in?
Replies: 30
Views: 2388

For those timing the market right now, what are your criteria for getting back in?

I realize the BH way is to buy, hold, and re-balance, but it seems there are quite a few posts here from folks who (either intentionally or accidentally) are market timing with cash waiting to be deployed to get back to their target AA. For those folks, what is your plan or criteria for moving funds...
by CoastalWinds
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying estimated tax with credit card... how to come out ahead
Replies: 12
Views: 1003

Paying estimated tax with credit card... how to come out ahead

I understand that quarterly estimated tax payments and tax return payments via EFTPS can be paid by credit card (CC), but the IRS charges a processing fee. Depending on the amount or % of the processing fee, and the % cashback earned with the CC used for the payments, one could come out ahead with t...
by CoastalWinds
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: So what are you cooking
Replies: 314
Views: 22339

Re: So what are you cooking

Salad a la mode.
by CoastalWinds
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?
Replies: 86
Views: 8813

Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Yes it will. My guesstimate is it will take: (i) a vaccine and (ii) about 2-3 years. And if a vaccine can't be made? Never heard of a vaccine for coronavirus (common cold) before. Sometimes the search for a vaccine loses impetus when it is found that the symptoms are relatively benign. All signs po...
by CoastalWinds
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 and Dow Futures Hit Limit Down After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open
Replies: 155
Views: 13452

Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

I'm not speculating about future legislation. I'm just questioning the assumption that tonight's futures action will determine tomorrow's closing NAVs. What if both houses of Congress come to an agreement with the White House on a third phase fiscal measure during market hours? PJW I’m sure the mar...
by CoastalWinds
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?
Replies: 86
Views: 8813

Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Yes it will. My guesstimate is it will take: (i) a vaccine and (ii) about 2-3 years.
by CoastalWinds
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20240
Views: 2763210

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Just remember China and South Korea are getting back to business. Just wanted to shed some positive light. The fear mongering is unbelievable. Stay the course. The fear mongers and market timers will go back to their caves when the recovery happens. Because they took it seriously, as reflected by c...
by CoastalWinds
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20240
Views: 2763210

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

It’s the accelerating exponential rate, not just that it’s going up. We’re not seeing any leveling off or even slowing down. We’re now trending worse than italy. Same thing, I don't think anyone was expecting leveling off over the weekend. And exponential rate is by definition accelerating, since t...
by CoastalWinds
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20240
Views: 2763210

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

The curve is going up. Things aren’t improving. I don't think anyone was expecting the curve to go down, and things to improve, over the weekend. It’s the accelerating exponential rate, not just that it’s going up. We’re not seeing any leveling off or even slowing down. We’re now trending worse tha...
by CoastalWinds
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20240
Views: 2763210

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Hyperchicken wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:30 pm From the "pricing in" perspective, what news arrived over the weekend, that were so much worse than what was already known and priced in?
The curve is going up. Things aren’t improving.
by CoastalWinds
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20240
Views: 2763210

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Futures are hemorrhaging again. Down another 4% right now. It's hard for me to understand how many still believe that returns are completely random. Wonder if it tripped the limit down breakers? Hasn’t moved in 15 minutes. It hit limit down in 4 minutes. Tomorrow is gonna be rough. Is it too early ...
by CoastalWinds
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: exchange VG Total Bond in my Regular IRA to VG NY Muni MM?
Replies: 7
Views: 348

Re: exchange VG Total Bond in my Regular IRA to VG NY Muni MM?

Don’t hold munis in tax-sheltered accounts.
by CoastalWinds
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20240
Views: 2763210

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

willthrill81 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:20 pm
CoastalWinds wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:18 pm Futures are hemorrhaging again.
Down another 4% right now.

It's hard for me to understand how many still believe that returns are completely random.
Wonder if it tripped the limit down breakers? Hasn’t moved in 15 minutes.
by CoastalWinds
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20240
Views: 2763210

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Futures are hemorrhaging again.
by CoastalWinds
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is living near power lines ok or bad?
Replies: 60
Views: 3270

Re: Is living near power lines ok or bad?

What is the voltage of the lines? If these are transmission lines, I would advise to be over 300 meters away. If distribution level (4K -15K volts), I would advise to be over 30 ft away. These are based on comparison of typical milliGauss measurements as a function of distance for varying voltages t...
by CoastalWinds
Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dealing With Fear
Replies: 13
Views: 1092

Re: Dealing With Fear

Slowtraveler wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:43 pm Let's say it's 40k of losses after offsetting my gains. Can I offset 40k of gains (not ordinary income) next year or am I limited to the 3k?
Yes, you can offset 40K of future gains.
by CoastalWinds
Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Taxable vanguard fund
Replies: 4
Views: 288

Re: Taxable vanguard fund

Right where it is - in the money market fund. Prime (VMMXX) and Federal (VMFXX) are great options.
by CoastalWinds
Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:56 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 196592

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Coming soon to a town near you. Probably necessary given all the people who are defiantly ignoring the precautions. Deserving of a net over-the-head.

https://mobile.twitter.com/dksf/status/ ... 34881?s=21
by CoastalWinds
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.
Replies: 519
Views: 47880

Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Here is one reason why we should stay calm... cuz this ain’t happening in the US. The net over-the-head was a nice touch.

https://mobile.twitter.com/dksf/status/ ... 34881?s=21
by CoastalWinds
Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111089

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Yes I'm trying to stay neutral and 3rd party on this but the way businesses governments both big and small and the general population all seem to know we are standing on tracks and we hear the whistle blowing and no one really has a plan yet to show how we are going to step off. We appear to be run...
by CoastalWinds
Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4012
Views: 309787

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Unemployment during the Great Depression peaked at 24.9% During 2009, US unemployment was 9.9%. I don't think whatever this is will last as long as the Great Depression did, but just throwing those numbers out there to compare with as we get numbers from the BLS over the next few weeks. I think we ...
by CoastalWinds
Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why did my munis (VWITX) dropped almost 10%???
Replies: 7
Views: 878

Re: Why did my munis (VWITX) dropped almost 10%???

Muni yields (%) are starting to look attractive, especially relative to treasuries. When things stabilize a bit, this should attract investors back in and drive the price of minus back up.