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by Harry Livermore
Sun Mar 17, 2024 9:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Nervous about giving out information
Replies: 34
Views: 2598

Re: Nervous about giving out information

Metsfan91 wrote: Sun Mar 17, 2024 7:47 pm
There are millions of Mets fans in the US.
Now, let's not get carried away...
:P
Cheers
by Harry Livermore
Sat Mar 16, 2024 8:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Surprise out of network
Replies: 23
Views: 2577

Re: Surprise out of network

We took our daughter to a doctor which the insurance website showed as in network. Afterwards got an out of network bill, insurance denied it was in network. Even the facility said it was in network. I did multiple appeals thru the insurance company but was each time denied. If it is out of network I believe you will have zero luck with your insurance company. In my experience, those insurance company listings of providers always seem to have a tiny disclaimer about not necessarily being accurate / up-to-date. Maintaining refreshed lists of continually changing information does not seem to be a core capability of the health insurance industry. They cannot be trusted as authoritative references. That’s terrible that the facility thought the...
by Harry Livermore
Sat Mar 16, 2024 5:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Surprise out of network
Replies: 23
Views: 2577

Re: Surprise out of network

Insurance companies of all types (home, auto, liability, health) have one objective- do everything in their power to get out of paying anything at all; and if that objective cannot be met, they pivot to paying the absolute least amount of money they can.
When interacting with an insurance company, it's really best to act as if you are dealing with a used-car salesman with a lengthy criminal history and current, somewhat shady Mafia connections.
Screenshot everything, indeed. And get to know your state's insurance commissioner office.
Cheers
by Harry Livermore
Sat Mar 16, 2024 4:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Amended 1099s from many years ago; can I amend return?
Replies: 16
Views: 1721

Re: Amended 1099s from many years ago; can I amend return?

It might be time to hire an Enrolled Agent.
Cheers
by Harry Livermore
Sat Mar 16, 2024 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (Probably stupid) question about online TPAW planner
Replies: 3
Views: 724

Re: (Probably stupid) question about online TPAW planner

Gunny, you most likely are seeing a range of possibilities in the spending graph, depending on your settings and inputs on the tool. Ben has designed this to show the 50th percentile possible spending. But there is a switch at the top left of the graph and you can select 5th percentile if you wish. I find doing so is a good gut check for me. In my case, I'd be perfectly happy and content at the 5th percentile... but life looks pretty grand at the 50th.
And remember that if you are really unlucky, you could be in the 1st percentile. None of us know, and obviously will adjust along the way.
So yes, don't let the numbers go to your head...
:sharebeer
Cheers
by Harry Livermore
Thu Mar 14, 2024 2:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal (TPAW)
Replies: 682
Views: 166383

Re: Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal (TPAW)

Ben Mathew wrote: Thu Mar 14, 2024 1:23 am
Thanks for this feedback. I'm curious to learn how you update the portfolio balance. Do you use an account aggregator that keeps track of your balances across accounts? Or do you log in to different accounts and add up the balances yourself? I do the latter and I have several different accounts, so it's somewhat time consuming and not something I do most of the times that I visit the planner.
I have a spreadsheet that I manually update every Saturday morning. I enter the resulting portfolio balance I use the planner.
Cheers
by Harry Livermore
Wed Mar 13, 2024 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal (TPAW)
Replies: 682
Views: 166383

Re: Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal (TPAW)

skipper wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2024 6:48 pm
Usually when you start a new plan, it starts with a Label box where you enter the name.
I have never seen that. But I have also not created an account at TPAWplanner... so that may be what's going on.
Cheers
by Harry Livermore
Wed Mar 13, 2024 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal (TPAW)
Replies: 682
Views: 166383

Re: Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal (TPAW)

OK, knowing your to-do list is long... here is another feature request: How about the ability to name the plan on the title page of the PDF? "Harry's Basic Plan" "Harry Retires At 62, Mrs. Livermore Works To 65" "Worst Case Plan- Harry Is Involuntarily Retired Right Now" etc... I have a few of them going, and I have been naming the files in this manner, but it would be pretty slick to have it on the title page instead of "Retirement Plan"... Cheers It does this; maybe you don't see it because "Retirement Plan" is so big. Under Retirement Plan, it shows the name of your plan... here's one of mine I just copied the title page: 2024 March 13 Retirement Plan Early 56 (<-- this is the name of my...
by Harry Livermore
Wed Mar 13, 2024 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal (TPAW)
Replies: 682
Views: 166383

Re: Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal (TPAW)

OK, knowing your to-do list is long... here is another feature request: How about the ability to name the plan on the title page of the PDF? "Harry's Basic Plan" "Harry Retires At 62, Mrs. Livermore Works To 65" "Worst Case Plan- Harry Is Involuntarily Retired Right Now" etc... I have a few of them going, and I have been naming the files in this manner, but it would be pretty slick to have it on the title page instead of "Retirement Plan"... Cheers It does this; maybe you don't see it because "Retirement Plan" is so big. Under Retirement Plan, it shows the name of your plan... here's one of mine I just copied the title page: 2024 March 13 Retirement Plan Early 56 (<-- this is the name of my...
by Harry Livermore
Wed Mar 13, 2024 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal (TPAW)
Replies: 682
Views: 166383

Re: Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal (TPAW)

OK, knowing your to-do list is long... here is another feature request:
How about the ability to name the plan on the title page of the PDF?
"Harry's Basic Plan"
"Harry Retires At 62, Mrs. Livermore Works To 65"
"Worst Case Plan- Harry Is Involuntarily Retired Right Now"
etc...
I have a few of them going, and I have been naming the files in this manner, but it would be pretty slick to have it on the title page instead of "Retirement Plan"...
Cheers
by Harry Livermore
Wed Mar 13, 2024 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal (TPAW)
Replies: 682
Views: 166383

Re: Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal (TPAW)

The current portfolio balance is assumed to be VT and BND for the purpose of estimating an updated portfolio balance daily. We will expand the list of funds that can be used for this so you can more closely model your actual portfolio. Note that this does not impact the simulation beyond the estimate for the current portfolio balance. I'd suggest removing this function rather than continuing to develop it. It is no problem to enter in the actual portfolio balance every month and doing so is more accurate unless someone actually has the funds in their portfolio and in the assumed balanced allocation mix, which I bet rarely if ever happens. It is confusing to have this value change automatically each day, especially for a new user. It makes ...
by Harry Livermore
Sat Mar 09, 2024 3:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which type of self-employed retirement account to open?
Replies: 10
Views: 811

Re: Which type of self-employed retirement account to open?

I would recommend keeping it simple at this point and opening a SEP.
Cheers
by Harry Livermore
Fri Mar 08, 2024 6:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Flying to London - Delta or British Airways
Replies: 58
Views: 5435

Re: Flying to London - Delta or British Airways

This will be our first trip abroad with our 3 kids. These are our options: Detroit to London direct round trip Delta $6250 Chicago to London direct round trip British Airways $4200 Any suggestions with this? Chicago is an hour extra driving time for us. Thank you! I'd spend an hour in the car for $10K. Delta might be the best US airline, but it's certainly not the most luxurious in the world. Wouldn't be surprised if the experience is better on BA. It would have to be dramatically worse for most Bogleheads to spend $10K to avoid it. Have fun! Doc, I think they are flying coach. $2K savings in total. Of course, you raise an interesting point. If they are flying in some better class, the difference would be per ticket, making a short additio...
by Harry Livermore
Fri Mar 08, 2024 6:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Personal Performance Dashboard Issue
Replies: 10
Views: 1504

Re: Vanguard Personal Performance Dashboard Issue

My performance dashboard has a time period named “all” which appears to include returns since inception. It also breaks out contributions, withdrawals, income, and gains nicely Does "all" happen to fall within 10 years for you? Just curious. If I click "all" it still only shows me 10 years. If I click "custom", everything prior to 2014 is greyed out on the little calendar. I have been a Vanguard customer since the early 1990s so there is 30 years+ history to show... but as far as I can tell, not on the website... Can you check and see if these two actions (clicking on all, and clicking on custom) behave the same for you? Many thanks. Cheers This is really unfortunate. I am not at 10 years. I wonder if 2014 is ...
by Harry Livermore
Thu Mar 07, 2024 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Withdrawal rates for a 45, 50, 55, and 60 year old?
Replies: 12
Views: 1447

Re: Withdrawal rates for a 45, 50, 55, and 60 year old?

Designairohio wrote: Thu Mar 07, 2024 9:32 am
Very interesting idea, is this a similar idea to VPW but using current data as opposed to historical data?
I believe the approach using annuity pricing is called the "Annually Recalculated Variable Annuity" approach (ARVA)
https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... _Ever_Need
As Woodspinner points out, though, there are issues the authors don't really solve for.
Cheers
by Harry Livermore
Thu Mar 07, 2024 5:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it Time to Self-Insure? CA Homeowners Rate Increases
Replies: 118
Views: 8841

Re: Is it Time to Self-Insure? CA Homeowners Rate Increases

I can't help wondering what would have happened if back in 2000, I invested the monthly premiums in an S&P 500 index fund instead of paying for a homeowner's policy and used that account to cover any damage or replacement in that time? There was no way to know back then what the future held but in hindsight I would have been OK I think. I'll admit to not reading the whole thread. What if, in 2000, your house burned down one month after investing the cash meant for the premium? You'd have $294 or something to cover the loss. End thread. Sorry if I'm not much of a value-add poster on this one. Cheers ETA: I guess another option might be to increase the deductible to something reasonable like $10K? I have no idea if insurance companies ge...
by Harry Livermore
Thu Mar 07, 2024 5:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Personal Performance Dashboard Issue
Replies: 10
Views: 1504

Re: Vanguard Personal Performance Dashboard Issue

nyclon wrote: Wed Mar 06, 2024 7:16 pm
My performance dashboard has a time period named “all” which appears to include returns since inception. It also breaks out contributions, withdrawals, income, and gains nicely
Does "all" happen to fall within 10 years for you? Just curious.
If I click "all" it still only shows me 10 years. If I click "custom", everything prior to 2014 is greyed out on the little calendar. I have been a Vanguard customer since the early 1990s so there is 30 years+ history to show... but as far as I can tell, not on the website...
Can you check and see if these two actions (clicking on all, and clicking on custom) behave the same for you? Many thanks.
Cheers
by Harry Livermore
Mon Mar 04, 2024 6:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Undersizing whole house generator?
Replies: 62
Views: 4823

Re: Undersizing whole house generator?

I think this setup is not uncommon, but as madbrain says, you need to have 2 panels- one "critical" systems/ circuits, and one "non critical" systems/ circuits. I'm not sure if both panels need to go through an automatic transfer switch setup, or only the generator-fed "critical" panel. But regardless, you'll need to add wiring from the ATS to the new "critical" panel. You could also forego the automatic start-up and transfer altogether, and when the power fails you could switch off the individual heavy-draw circuits in the main panel, manually start the genny, and manually switch over. I'm not sure how you'd know grid power was back on in that setup. Maybe others here know if there is a MTS device wi...
by Harry Livermore
Sun Mar 03, 2024 7:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal (TPAW)
Replies: 682
Views: 166383

Re: Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal (TPAW)

ConstantChrysalis gave a good explanation of what's going on. The benefit of stocks (the equity premium) has gone down, while the cost of stocks (the standard deviation of returns) has remained the same. So it makes sense to hold less stocks in the portfolio. Thanks, Ben. Yes, CC explained the effect well. And as I said in my post above, after playing around quite extensively with many of the variables, I have mostly just gone back to the defaults. The expected returns parameter was still a custom choice, and I found myself puzzling over the effect on AA. For me, the graphs are the most useful part of the tool; and the "cone of uncertainty" (to borrow a phrase from hurricane watchers) is a terrific illustration of expected outcom...
by Harry Livermore
Sat Mar 02, 2024 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal (TPAW)
Replies: 682
Views: 166383

Re: Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal (TPAW)

... and for what it's worth, since Ben first put up the online tool, and especially within the last 6 months as he's made many refinements to it, I have played around with all of the settings, creating many iterations of our plan. Lately, I have mostly reset everything to the defaults, as it dawned on me that torturing the settings to produce the desired result is not the greatest choice, and also might give a false sense of precision and/ or certainty.
Cheers
by Harry Livermore
Sat Mar 02, 2024 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal (TPAW)
Replies: 682
Views: 166383

Re: Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal (TPAW)

The danger with all of these risk settings is that you can easily talk yourself into changing the risk assumptions until you like the result, which is working backwards, instead of using assumptions that make you comfortable and living with the result, even if it doesn't meet your goals. The power of TPAW is that you can go back and forth to see the quantitative impact of these assumptions. The other danger is that all of the results you obtain with TPAW are based on educated assumptions and settings that are subject to endless debate, and the future will likely have a different path in store for us. But, I feel it is better than relying on guesswork and rules of thumb that have no theoretical grounding. Yes, agree with this. For better or...
by Harry Livermore
Sat Mar 02, 2024 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal (TPAW)
Replies: 682
Views: 166383

Re: Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal (TPAW)

Thanks, ConstantChrysalis. Yes, that is an excellent explanation.
But:
ConstantChrysalis wrote: Sat Mar 02, 2024 9:40 am
So, if you believe the Conservative Estimate best reflects your view of the market today, then all you can do is adjust the slider to find the spending curve that makes you the happiest, even if it falls short of your goal.
Is this not just another way of saying "all you can do is adjust the slider to increase risk"?
Cheers
by Harry Livermore
Sat Mar 02, 2024 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal (TPAW)
Replies: 682
Views: 166383

Re: Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal (TPAW)

Hi Ben, I know you have talked about the topic of risk and how the planner uses the risk inputs. I've read the excellent discussion you had with Constant Chrysalis touching a bit on this, and I had my own question about how income streams affect the results of the calculator. But I'm still muddled about one thing in the risk tab. Maybe explain this part to me like I'm 5... If I use the defaults, and set my risk level as 14 ("moderate") on the slider, I end up with an RRA of 2.26, and an AA of 58% equities. OK, fine. If I change the expected returns to "Conservative Estimate" and then go to the risk tab, I see my risk level (still at 14/ "moderate") continues to show an RRA of 2.26. OK. But now the AA shows 33% ...
by Harry Livermore
Sat Mar 02, 2024 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President
Replies: 371
Views: 34795

Re: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President

Oicuryy wrote: Fri Mar 01, 2024 11:24 pm If Buckley gets replaced on the board will that trigger a vote on the trustees? Anyone care enough about how Vanguard is run to put up an alternate slate of trustees?

Maybe Rick Ferri could invite Mr. Loughridge and the other trustees to appear on his podcast and campaign for reelection.

Ron
I would definitely tune in for THAT!!!
:)
Cheers
by Harry Livermore
Fri Mar 01, 2024 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President
Replies: 371
Views: 34795

Re: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President

Random Poster wrote: Fri Mar 01, 2024 2:30 pm
Harry Livermore wrote: Fri Mar 01, 2024 7:27 am I'm guessing his annual remuneration was many multiples of my net worth, so he's probably good to go after 6 years.
Maybe he could post a "Portfolio Review" thread and we can advise him?
:D
Cheers
$50 says that the majority of people here would respond to his Portfolio Review request by suggesting that he keep working a few more years just to be safe, since he might live to 115, want to take 14 world cruises, need 24/7 medical assistance for 3 years, and pay off the loans of 6000 med school students.
You know, I think you might be right about that!
:sharebeer
Cheers
by Harry Livermore
Fri Mar 01, 2024 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President
Replies: 371
Views: 34795

Re: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President

I've resolved the font size issue mostly satisfactorily simply by setting the zoom factor in my browser to 80% or 90% for all Vanguard sites. Not perfect, but an improvement for me when using a 27" monitor. I don't use their phone app or a tablet. How do you set the zoom factor "for all Vanguard sites" without affecting all the other print you read from other sites on your computer? I'm not certain if this is what Stan is alluding to, but for me, in both Firefox and Safari (on a Mac) I can set a particular zoom factor with command-shift-+ (plus symbol) and the browser will display all pages on that particular URL/ site at the same level of zoom. Other websites are unaffected, until I choose a zoom level for them also. Both b...
by Harry Livermore
Fri Mar 01, 2024 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President
Replies: 371
Views: 34795

Re: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President

stan1 wrote: Fri Mar 01, 2024 10:37 am
Diluted Waters wrote: Fri Mar 01, 2024 10:24 am I can’t help but see a similarity here with Boeing hiring bean counters as CEO instead of engineers.

And this thread is a message itself: not one post that’s sorry to see him go.
Add in the demise of GE after the fawning over Jack Welch and his disciples for decades.

Prior Boeing CEO McNerny (who led 737 Max) was one such disciple. He left GE when he was passed over to replace Welch.
Those two examples came to my mind as well...
Cheers
by Harry Livermore
Fri Mar 01, 2024 8:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best way to sync files between multiple computers and external drives?
Replies: 47
Views: 4790

Re: Best way to sync files between multiple computers and external drives?

Jaylat wrote: Fri Mar 01, 2024 8:39 am
Harry Livermore wrote: Fri Mar 01, 2024 5:28 am How about two different Dropbox accounts? Account "A" for folder A. Account "B" for folder B.
Pricey.
But might be a solve.
Cheers
Thanks. A commenter above recommends Dropbox Selective Sync function, which would accomplish this. I'm now thinking that could be the best option.
Great! Perhaps follow up with the group here, if that works? I have a basic Dropbox subscription, and am not a power user, but I certainly am always interested in new tricks.
Cheers
by Harry Livermore
Fri Mar 01, 2024 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The recent surge: stand pat or "sell high?"
Replies: 54
Views: 6444

Re: The recent surge: stand pat or "sell high?"

I have let the equities portion of my portfolio vacillate between 50% and 60% since 2018. I'm a VERY lazy rebalancer. It's worked out just fine.
As we have gotten over 30x retirement spending estimates, and I've gotten older, I feel most comfortable in this range. Sure, if I was 100% equities like I was in my 30s, I'd have a lot more money now. But having a lot of fixed income and cash served me well when things were whipsawing in 2020.
Not changing anything here. If the recent "surge" continues and I see that we go past 60/40, I'll do a minor tweak in our IRAs.
So as per OP's question... I guess "standing pat"?
Cheers
by Harry Livermore
Fri Mar 01, 2024 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President
Replies: 371
Views: 34795

Re: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President

MishkaWorries wrote: Fri Mar 01, 2024 6:50 am
That's a shocking number and probably explains a lot. But we're talking about the age of an CEO that "retired" after only six years in that role.
I'm guessing his annual remuneration was many multiples of my net worth, so he's probably good to go after 6 years.
Maybe he could post a "Portfolio Review" thread and we can advise him?
:D
Cheers
by Harry Livermore
Fri Mar 01, 2024 5:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President
Replies: 371
Views: 34795

Re: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President

The few podcasts and interviews I watched with him have been mostly trite and almost cringe worthy in their lack of substance. I don't think Rick (or the rest of who listen to the podcast) missed much. Agree. That's what I was trying to say in my post. An uninspiring CEO, to say the least. That's a good way to put it. You either want low cost or good service and benefits you cant have both. Can't we have somewhere in the middle of the spectrum??? :sharebeer I'm crossing my fingers that his replacement makes the website, app, and customer service world class. ClevrChico, you were quoted in the WSJ: " 'I’m crossing my fingers that his replacement makes the website, app, and customer service world class,' one of the tens of thousands of ...
by Harry Livermore
Fri Mar 01, 2024 5:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Demutualization (Thrifts) IPOs
Replies: 5
Views: 768

Re: Investing in Demutualization (Thrifts) IPOs

I read that Peter Lynch article in 1991 as well. About a year later, my local 5-branch institution where I'd always done my banking announced they were doing this. I participated in the IPO and made some nice change.
But as a broader strategy, I'm dubious. Are there still many local mutual banks left that will eventually do this?
Cheers
by Harry Livermore
Fri Mar 01, 2024 5:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best way to sync files between multiple computers and external drives?
Replies: 47
Views: 4790

Re: Best way to sync files between multiple computers and external drives?

How about two different Dropbox accounts? Account "A" for folder A. Account "B" for folder B.
Pricey.
But might be a solve.
Cheers
by Harry Livermore
Thu Feb 29, 2024 6:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best way to sync files between multiple computers and external drives?
Replies: 47
Views: 4790

Re: Best way to sync files between multiple computers and external drives?

I have not had to do this on a regular basis for a few years, but there was a time where part of my job description involved securely and reliably syncing multiple drives and data. All Mac based. My favorite tool was Chronosync:
https://www.econtechnologies.com/chrono ... rview.html
Cheers
by Harry Livermore
Thu Feb 29, 2024 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President
Replies: 371
Views: 34795

Re: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President

To be honest, anytime I tuned in to the Vanguard webcasts (which were mildly interesting but not entirely worth the time) he struck me as a bit of a lightweight. But that's a thin way to glimpse a manager, so I'll assume I am not in a position to judge.
I was fairly impressed by Gus Sauter though, whenever I read an interview or saw a video clip.
Perhaps the next CEO will make some infrastructure improvements!
Cheers
by Harry Livermore
Thu Feb 29, 2024 9:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review Request for Young Adult and Recent Graduate Starting First Job
Replies: 12
Views: 1534

Re: Portfolio Review Request for Young Adult and Recent Graduate Starting First Job

In terms of understanding personal finance, and being prepared to become financially independent in the future, you are likely ahead of 99% of your peer group. Congratulations!
I will let the other Bogleheads chime in on your specifics, but wanted to thank you for posting the Sankey graph building site. I have long been a fan of these to visualize flows, but was unaware that there was a simple online tool for building them.
Cheers
by Harry Livermore
Wed Feb 28, 2024 10:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 529 - 2 years until High School Graduation - How Risky should I be?
Replies: 28
Views: 3528

Re: 529 - 2 years until High School Graduation - How Risky should I be?

This money is going to be used in 2 to 4 years - I would put it all in a MM or similar. Should be close to 5% returns at the moment. The risk/reward for bonds relative to MM in the short term just doesn’t seem worth it. You could adjust your AA in your retirement accounts if you want to be more aggressive with stocks or bonds. Lots of people got hosed in 2022 in their 529s thinking that their target date or other bond heavy funds were conservative, only to see a big drop. Not good if the student was in or about to start college. +1 My personal preference with my 3 kids was to have all 529 and Coverdell money in money market funds by the time they were juniors in high school. I think in the case on our middle and youngest, it was money mark...
by Harry Livermore
Sat Feb 24, 2024 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: raise bulkhead
Replies: 5
Views: 745

Re: raise bulkhead

We are considering raising the bulkhead base a few inches. One contractor proposed to put cinder blocks and then cement them together; the other contractor proposed straight concrete cement. Is one way better than the other, in terms of durability, seamlessness? Also do we need a new door instead of reusing this 4-yr old door assuming the contractor can reuse it? How concerned with you about aesthetics? For just a few inches, I think the simplest and easiest way would be to buy some ground contact rated treated lumber and then with a drill and tapcons, attach it to the top of the existing bulkhead concrete. I would put a couple thick beads of some highly flexible sealant between the concrete and the treated wood. Ground contact treated woo...
by Harry Livermore
Sat Feb 24, 2024 8:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks
Replies: 221
Views: 13743

Re: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks

I have slight tilts. I think if you can accept being wrong, then add that risk.
We have quite a bit of Wellesley. Those stocks have a value tilt. We also have a bit of Dividend Growth Fund. That fund has a lower beta than Total Market and tilted towards dividend payers/ slow growers. We have most of our pure bond fund money in Short Term Treasury.
I accept that my choices will produce a different result in both good times and bad.
Cheers
by Harry Livermore
Sat Feb 24, 2024 7:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Federal taxes due > $2,000
Replies: 25
Views: 3324

Re: Federal taxes due > $2,000

Slightly off-topic: I've been self-employed for the entirety of my 37 year career. Many of my clients prefer to pay me (my LLC) directly, but depending on the type or duration of project, prefer that my labor go through a payroll service. When I was younger and busier, it meant that in some years I filled out W4s (and I-9s and other "start up" paperwork) as often as 20-30 times in a year (and yes, some years I'd get 20-30 different W2s) The "old" W4 seemed very simple, although opaque, and produced an acceptable result. The "new" W4 (was that part of the 2017 tax law changes?) is just as opaque as the old form, but more complicated, and I've never quite gotten it right. But I'm also not super smart. OP- in my w...
by Harry Livermore
Sat Feb 17, 2024 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Portfolio Watch has a new look [Calculations may be incorrect]
Replies: 369
Views: 58278

Re: Vanguard Portfolio Watch has a new look [Calculations may be incorrect]

BGeste wrote: Sat Feb 17, 2024 1:48 pm
The asset allocation numbers are definitely incorrect on Portfolio Watch and on the new Dashboard feature. Short term reserve percentages are higher and equities lower in my case.
They also have a category called "other". I used to be able to adjust my target AA to include some "other". They recently deleted this as an option in the manual AA target window. So now my AA is always "wrong" in the dashboard.
It's too bad they have mucked this feature up, but I don't really rely on it too much for anything, so it's tough for me to get too bent out of shape.
Cheers
by Harry Livermore
Fri Feb 16, 2024 7:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Wellesley
Replies: 125
Views: 18377

Re: Vanguard Wellesley

How does everyone feel about this fund now? It has been slow to rebound from disastrous 2022. Has a great track record but wondering if this is a good hold fund for a 62 year old. OP, do you understand what bond duration is and how it works? Duration is essentially a measure of the interest rate risk/sensitivity of a bond. It looks like Wellesley is just over 60% bonds with an average duration of roughly 8 years. If the interest rate on a bond with a duration of 8 goes up by 1% overnight, then the value of that bond drops by about 8%. The opposite is also true (if the interest rate on the same bond falls by 1% overnight, then that bond will go up in price by about 8%). Basically, when interest rates are rising as much and as fast as they d...
by Harry Livermore
Thu Feb 15, 2024 8:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: College student considering staying in a hotel to save money.
Replies: 55
Views: 5279

Re: College student considering staying in a hotel to save money.

Last year when my daughter was a junior, she did a study abroad in the spring semester. The university did not have enough housing for upperclassmen, and all landlords wanted an 11-month lease, so we were in a conundrum about housing for the fall semester. I was prepared to just book her a room at a hotel in town for the fall. She found an AirBnB house right off campus, populated by other undergrads. Shared bath, shared kitchen. $63 per day. It was pretty well run and the fact that the other renters were also female made us comfortable. In fact, she liked the property and landlord so much, she re-upped for senior year and got a better room upstairs. A "house" situation might be better from the perspective of cooking meals. It's po...
by Harry Livermore
Thu Feb 15, 2024 5:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I am Financially Ignorant and Seeking Guidance
Replies: 33
Views: 3704

Re: I am Financially Ignorant and Seeking Guidance

There is a ton to unpack in your reply. For one, I am eligible for and do contribute to SS. However, I wasn’t aware there may be a condition that’s not noted on my annual SSA statement- I need to follow up on this. >>> You indicated that you have a state job with a pension. There are a fair number of municipal and government workers who do not have social security taxes taken out of their paychecks, and have a state-, local-, or union-funded plan. Often the worker contributes a percentage of their pay towards these plans, but not always. In these cases, there is a rule called the "Windfall Elimination Provision" that is applied to part of any social security benefit the worker would otherwise receive. You say in your reply that y...
by Harry Livermore
Wed Feb 14, 2024 5:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I am Financially Ignorant and Seeking Guidance
Replies: 33
Views: 3704

Re: I am Financially Ignorant and Seeking Guidance

Welcome to the forum. You certainly are in the right place. With your pensions, you are probably in a better place than most people as far as retirement goals. With your debt level, and consequently monthly payments on it, you are likely feeling suffocated. If you have hit that point where you have had enough (like I did once), you'll want to focus on that. Like stop all retirement savings and bring complete focus to all of your debt. Stop spending so much. Maybe list each day of the month in a spreadsheet and record all of your expenses and what they were for. Do this for a couple months. You'll learn a lot. With dual income, cutting your spending, and extreme focus, you could be done with debt by next January. Then you can worry about in...
by Harry Livermore
Wed Feb 14, 2024 5:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I am Financially Ignorant and Seeking Guidance
Replies: 33
Views: 3704

Re: I am Financially Ignorant and Seeking Guidance

Can you edit your first post to include income and expenses? I agree with the others (and you say you have been working on this) that getting rid of the credit card debt is job 1 . If your retirement accounts are only IRAs and Roths (sounds like it), you can switch your investments to anything you like with no tax implications. Simplicity and low-cost is the key. Many folks here advise Total Market- VTSAX (or its ETF version, VTI) and Total Bond- VBTLX (or its ETF version, BND) Other fund companies have similar funds and ETFs with equally low expense ratios. You can fill up the Roths with VTSAX, and then the IRAs with an appropriate combination of the two funds to reach your overall desired ratio, for example. Where are the retirement accou...
by Harry Livermore
Mon Feb 12, 2024 8:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Some fairly basic questions on taxes for a self-employed individual
Replies: 6
Views: 741

Re: Some fairly basic questions on taxes for a self-employed individual

livesoft wrote: Mon Feb 12, 2024 8:03 am
If a musician self-employed with work in many states, then you have to file tax returns for many states, too.

See also: https://www.irs.gov/businesses/small-bu ... f-employed
Excellent point. Although I'm not a musician, I do often travel for work. Some years I have to do an additional state tax return or two. One year I had to do six!
Cheers
by Harry Livermore
Mon Feb 12, 2024 5:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Some fairly basic questions on taxes for a self-employed individual
Replies: 6
Views: 741

Re: Some fairly basic questions on taxes for a self-employed individual

FiveK has your back here, especially pointing out that as a W2 employee you do not get to deduct 1/2 FICA. I seriously hope you have not been doing this on actual tax returns. You also seem to think that you can deduct ALL of FICA when self employed (at least that's how I read it) When an employee: your employer pays half of FICA, you pay half. No special deduction for this. When self-employed: you pay BOTH halves of FICA. You deduct half. I hope that makes sense. There are many other aspects of being self-employed besides taxes, including the choice of entity (sole prop, corporation, etc.), segregation of accounts, tracking and documenting expenses, etc. Insurance should also be a top priority, both health and disability (you are single so...
by Harry Livermore
Sun Feb 11, 2024 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vectors"
Replies: 9
Views: 1842

Re: "Vectors"

1moreyr wrote: Sun Feb 11, 2024 8:00 pm Taylor, this newsletter is excellent. you are an inspiration on many levels.

can someone tell me where to sign up for this? i googled it and i get something else.
https://oncoursefp.com

George's email is at the bottom. I think I just emailed and expressed an interest in the newsletter. It arrives as a link to a PDF every month in my inbox.
Cheers