Search found 551 matches

by langlands
Mon Oct 19, 2020 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is market-cap weight skewed inaccurate by stocks, like BRK, holding other stocks?
Replies: 19
Views: 841

Re: Is market-cap weight skewed inaccurate by stocks, like BRK, holding other stocks?

For example, Total Stock Market (VTI and VTSAX) hold ~5.36% Apple and ~1.19% BRK. Since BRK has ~500b market cap and holds ~110b of Apple stock, BRK without Apple would only be worth ~390b and shouldn't be allocated as high as ~1.19% in market-cap weight. The value of apple is being double-counted....
by langlands
Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ark Funds
Replies: 59
Views: 5388

Re: Ark Funds

I don't own any of them, but I do find them intriguing and follow their holdings from time to time (being one of the most well known of the so called "thematic" funds). The performance of course has been spectacular, even compared to other tech funds. Very interested to see going forward whether th...
by langlands
Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO (emerg markets) very disappointing performance
Replies: 52
Views: 4099

Re: VWO (emerg markets) very disappointing performance

...Ken French in a 2007 paper, Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets has investigated home bias. He concluded that US investors believe that domestic market will outperform by 2.5% on average... This cannot be explained by rational home bias, political risk, or tax advantages......
by langlands
Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6565
Views: 617485

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Shorting instead of going long has been talked about. I did a quick and dirty test using PV, and shorting has higher CAGR while having lower max drawdown and a significantly higher Sharpe ratio. What reasons are there not to use the shorting strategy? I picked TBT since it is easily shorted on IB (...
by langlands
Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ark Funds
Replies: 59
Views: 5388

Re: Ark Funds

Gemini wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:29 pm Can someone explain the tax implications
Of one of these ARK active etfs in a taxable account? If one holds it over a year, and then sells, would it be all long term cap gains?
Yes
by langlands
Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Large Growth disliked?
Replies: 74
Views: 6844

Re: Why is Large Growth disliked?

I see you are "forgetting" about volatility-adjusted returns... From my point of view risk refers to the dispersion in possible outcomes. When you run a backtest, you get one outcome and therefore there is no risk. This makes backtests fundamentally unsuited to asses risk adjusted performance, a mo...
by langlands
Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Large Growth disliked?
Replies: 74
Views: 6844

Re: Why is Large Growth disliked?

DFSVX realized a gain of 0.79% per year relative to TSM, after expenses. This is false . DFSVX grew $10k to $126,893 from inception until 30 Sept 2020. VTSMX grew $10k into $127,765 over that same time period. There was *no* premium. They tied in performance, but DFSVX was far more volatile with 20...
by langlands
Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can an individual investor COPY a hedge fund or the likes portfolio?
Replies: 27
Views: 1132

Re: Can an individual investor COPY a hedge fund or the likes portfolio?

Besides the obvious lag issue, 13Fs also don't include short equity positions and short option positions. So a hedge fund could be massively short on a stock, but the 13F will make it appear as though they are long. 13Fs are only a snapshot in time. So funds with thousands of positions with high-tu...
by langlands
Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can an individual investor COPY a hedge fund or the likes portfolio?
Replies: 27
Views: 1132

Re: Can an individual investor COPY a hedge fund or the likes portfolio?

The thing is it really isn't though for some of these funds. The thesis for some of these plays is so long term and so fundamental that you can be confident the fund is going to hold the position for years. Ackman at Pershing Square has held onto Chipotle and Restaurant Brands International for at ...
by langlands
Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can an individual investor COPY a hedge fund or the likes portfolio?
Replies: 27
Views: 1132

Re: Can an individual investor COPY a hedge fund or the likes portfolio?

is it possible to copy their portfolio for an indivudal invesor? No. How will you know what trades they are making when they make them? ... Being a quarter behind is too long. The thing is it really isn't though for some of these funds. The thesis for some of these plays is so long term and so fund...
by langlands
Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can an individual investor COPY a hedge fund or the likes portfolio?
Replies: 27
Views: 1132

Re: Can an individual investor COPY a hedge fund or the likes portfolio?

is it possible to copy their portfolio for an indivudal invesor? No. How will you know what trades they are making when they make them? Managers who have over $100m in assets have to report to the SEC on a quarterly basis (although there is a proposal to change this threshold to 3.5b) So the answer...
by langlands
Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seriously, what is going on with international?
Replies: 175
Views: 15489

Re: Seriously, what is going on with international?

Stef wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:25 am Not all of exUS sucks. It's mostly the European Union for obvious reasons that can't be discussed here.
Hm, not so obvious to me. Can you give a hint of what you're talking about? e.g. Brexit etc.
by langlands
Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seriously, what is going on with international?
Replies: 175
Views: 15489

Re: Seriously, what is going on with international?

Mainly tech. Investing is cyclical. A long term buy and hold investor will have at least one stinker in his/her portfolio. I forget which thread it is, but I think Elysium showed that international underperformance was consistent across almost all sectors, not just tech. Financials is another obvio...
by langlands
Tue Oct 13, 2020 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Chasers Rejoice: Oil Stocks at 6.44% !!!
Replies: 51
Views: 4693

Re: Yield Chasers Rejoice: Oil Stocks at 6.44% !!!

Unless you're an expert in oil&gas, I don't think it's a good idea to overweight oil stocks (unless it's a commodity inflation hedge or something, but I much prefer gold for that). Everyone knows it "looks cheap." Oil is an old business and the valuation of such businesses is well understood. So all...
by langlands
Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Bogleheads cope with not beating the market?
Replies: 142
Views: 10005

Re: How do Bogleheads cope with not beating the market?

They all are brilliant no question, but are there other brilliant people that actually lost money as they may have not had as much "luck"? How much of it is skill vs luck? It has to be a combination. You need skills to have a chance, but probably still need some luck. 2 University of Chicago financ...
by langlands
Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Bogleheads cope with not beating the market?
Replies: 142
Views: 10005

Re: How do Bogleheads cope with not beating the market?

They all are brilliant no question, but are there other brilliant people that actually lost money as they may have not had as much "luck"? How much of it is skill vs luck? It has to be a combination. You need skills to have a chance, but probably still need some luck. 2 University of Chicago financ...
by langlands
Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simplify US Equity PLUS Convexity ETF (SPYC)
Replies: 6
Views: 811

Re: Simplify US Equity PLUS Convexity ETF (SPYC)

It's an interesting idea, but I don't really see the point in buying the fund. You're basically paying 0.3% for someone to buy calls and puts for you. If you're very uncomfortable with holding options yourself, I suppose it is an option :). Also, the appealing aspect is the downside risk protection....
by langlands
Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual Stocks - 5-10% of Portfolio "Play Money" - YES or NO?
Replies: 91
Views: 4893

Re: Individual Stocks - 5-10% of Portfolio "Play Money" - YES or NO?

I do not buy any individual stock that does not have the potential to go up 10X to 30X in less than 5 years. Can you give us a current or past example of such a stock, or how you decide which stocks have that potential? Pretty much every stock in the WCLD index How would one have known that in adva...
by langlands
Mon Oct 12, 2020 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual Stocks - 5-10% of Portfolio "Play Money" - YES or NO?
Replies: 91
Views: 4893

Re: Individual Stocks - 5-10% of Portfolio "Play Money" - YES or NO?

Someone earlier mentioned sticking to where you feel you some kind of edge or sense that you know something that others are missing... ...Cloudflare by virtue of some projects I've been on and ended up doing some informal research It was a great day for cloudlfare (I own the stock as well). This ma...
by langlands
Mon Oct 12, 2020 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6565
Views: 617485

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

It seems about half this thread (more?) has been focused on what TMF (or other bond variants of it) might yield over the next decade+ given the rate we're starting with today, and what that means for the viability of this strategy. After some deliberation, I decided to go with an even heavier equit...
by langlands
Mon Oct 12, 2020 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual Stocks - 5-10% of Portfolio "Play Money" - YES or NO?
Replies: 91
Views: 4893

Re: Individual Stocks - 5-10% of Portfolio "Play Money" - YES or NO?

You need to explain your aversion to leverage. Leverage is much much more likely to bring you success than randomly picking a group of high risk stocks. If you're not comfortable taking actual leverage, consider a fund like UPRO or TQQQ. There are only two reasons to buy individual stocks: you thin...
by langlands
Mon Oct 12, 2020 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual Stocks - 5-10% of Portfolio "Play Money" - YES or NO?
Replies: 91
Views: 4893

Re: Individual Stocks - 5-10% of Portfolio "Play Money" - YES or NO?

I do a lot of things that are interesting to me, and it costs money. In fact, I do a lot of things that cost money that I don't even want to do. To me, unwise investing can be put in a place where it's not really a special category of entertainment. There have been times that investing was interest...
by langlands
Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual Stocks - 5-10% of Portfolio "Play Money" - YES or NO?
Replies: 91
Views: 4893

Re: Individual Stocks - 5-10% of Portfolio "Play Money" - YES or NO?

You need to explain your aversion to leverage. Leverage is much much more likely to bring you success than randomly picking a group of high risk stocks. If you're not comfortable taking actual leverage, consider a fund like UPRO or TQQQ. There are only two reasons to buy individual stocks: you think...
by langlands
Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Large Growth disliked?
Replies: 74
Views: 6844

Re: Why is Large Growth disliked?

Investing in large cap growth is the epitome of improper understanding of financial models, extreme recency bias and sector picking. Here are the SmB and HmL factors in various time periods and geographic regions: US time period SMB HML last 5 years -2.41 -4.24 last 10 years -0.64 -2.38 last 20 yea...
by langlands
Sun Oct 11, 2020 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9363
Views: 746533

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

000 wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 11:37 pm Futures suggest a yummy day for tech stocks tomorrow :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
I thought you created a thread saying you were concerned tech was overvalued? Do you tilt tech?
by langlands
Sun Oct 11, 2020 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equities in past election years
Replies: 15
Views: 1211

Re: Equities in past election years

If you believe VIX market is efficient, volatility is likely to be higher in November. http://vixcentral.com/ I don't know if this happens every election. Certainly in 2016 there was a huge swing on election day. I don't think it's controversial to state that this election is particularly charged, s...
by langlands
Sun Oct 11, 2020 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Active" Index investing vs. "Passive" Index investing
Replies: 197
Views: 7788

Re: "Active" investing vs. "Passive" investing

"In Common Sense on Mutual Funds, [1] Jack Bogle suggests that a reasonable alternative to an index fund for some investors would be to hold a well-diversified portfolio of individual stocks, as long as they are held long-term, with a minimum of trading costs incurred." From the BH-wiki. The proble...
by langlands
Sun Oct 11, 2020 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Active" Index investing vs. "Passive" Index investing
Replies: 197
Views: 7788

Re: "Active" investing vs. "Passive" investing

A portfolio of individual stocks held long term is not such a bad investment choice. A worse expected return than modern low fee funds, all things being equal, but not horrible. Forty yrs ago when I started, it may even have been a better pick than most funds, as 1%+ fees were common. Advantages ar...
by langlands
Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What the Harvard endowment’s below-average grade can teach you about index funds and your investments"
Replies: 45
Views: 4344

Re: "What the Harvard endowment’s below-average grade can teach you about index funds and your investments"

One could attempt to excuse Harvard endowment's performance by saying that they are trying to build an "all-weather" portfolio that is less risky than a vanilla stock/bond portfolio. The problem is that a cursory glance at the historical performance of their endowment shows that they don't actually ...
by langlands
Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Large Growth disliked?
Replies: 74
Views: 6844

Re: Why is Large Growth disliked?

But if you tilt large growth, and tilt the sector that has performed above all others for the last decade, you are nothing but a market timer or a stock picker. A big reason large growth companies are up so much this year is that the market perceives them as safer assets than small and/or value com...
by langlands
Thu Oct 08, 2020 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6565
Views: 617485

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Idk, I couldn’t get myself to stick with MV, couldn’t of been further off. Absolutely loaded on TMF just in time for the drop. Really wish I started with the standard AA. To answer your question, I think something like an 8% fluctuation from the monthly signal warrants an adjustment. I wouldn’t thi...
by langlands
Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When a company pays a dividend, what is the literal reason for the stock price decrease?
Replies: 56
Views: 4388

Re: When a company pays a dividend, what is the literal reason for the stock price decrease?

Oh, the equation for P/E isn't market cap over earnings? I was thinking that a decrease in (PPS/EPS) (caused by an increase in EPS) would imply a decrease for (market cap / earnings). Since earnings don't decrease, it seemed that the only way for the equation to balance would be for market cap to d...
by langlands
Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When a company pays a dividend, what is the literal reason for the stock price decrease?
Replies: 56
Views: 4388

Re: When a company pays a dividend, what is the literal reason for the stock price decrease?

If there was a $100 million company with 100 shares (each share worth $1 million) and it repurchased 1 share, would the company now be worth $99 million (with each share still worth $1 million) or would the company still be worth $100 million (with each share now worth $1.01 million)? The former wo...
by langlands
Wed Oct 07, 2020 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When a company pays a dividend, what is the literal reason for the stock price decrease?
Replies: 56
Views: 4388

Re: When a company pays a dividend, what is the literal reason for the stock price decrease?

I think you got the P/E ratio backwards. After a share buyback, earnings stay the same but the number of shares has decreased. So EPS increases. If share price stays the same, P/E decreases. the calculation for P/E is slightly different from pps/eps though; even though both would equal the same. Af...
by langlands
Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value Fans: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"
Replies: 25
Views: 1985

Re: Small Cap Value Fans: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"

I have a suspicion that international "growth" is qualitatively different from US "growth" in that it's made up of companies that aren't really that innovative and don't deserve their earnings growth projection. Crudely put, almost all international stocks are actually "value" and "growth" is just t...
by langlands
Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When a company pays a dividend, what is the literal reason for the stock price decrease?
Replies: 56
Views: 4388

Re: When a company pays a dividend, what is the literal reason for the stock price decrease?

If there was a $100 million company with 100 shares (each share worth $1 million) and it repurchased 1 share, would the company now be worth $99 million (with each share still worth $1 million) or would the company still be worth $100 million (with each share now worth $1.01 million)? The former wo...
by langlands
Tue Oct 06, 2020 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9363
Views: 746533

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I don’t understand what is driving the equities now. 2nd rounds of stimulus most likely. Oh it was announced that one of three parties doesn't want stimulus until after the election. Oh God Market timers dumping..cant they for another 2 months? Noise..ignore..buy more if u can Sorry that my post ji...
by langlands
Mon Oct 05, 2020 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is now the time to think about active investing??
Replies: 32
Views: 3091

Re: Is now the time to think about active investing??

TheoLeo wrote: Mon Oct 05, 2020 8:41 pm Cathy Woods got lucky by betting on Tesla. Thats all there is to it. Thats pretty much the only reason people listen to her. Maybe your uncle also got lucky by buying Tesla. Would you let him manage your money now?
ARKK was already outperforming QQQ before TSLA took off.
by langlands
Mon Oct 05, 2020 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is now the time to think about active investing??
Replies: 32
Views: 3091

Re: Is now the time to think about active investing??

All the points about active investing underperforming passive in aggregate and that past performance doesn't guarantee future performance are of course true. Still, this is the chart of ARK fund performance: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&first...
by langlands
Mon Oct 05, 2020 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6565
Views: 617485

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I found the TMF annual report from October 31 2019, which is 304 pages long. Is there an easy way to find where this information is? I tried Crtl + F some obvious search terms and couldn't locate it. The annual reports for TMF can be found here: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getco...
by langlands
Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6565
Views: 617485

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Hi coingaroo, could you link the documents where you find the financing costs for TMF, UPRO, and TQQQ? You seem to think TMF (1.2%) is more expensive to borrow than UPRO and TQQQ (0.8%) whereas Uncorrelated and others seem to think it's the reverse. Thanks. For what it's worth, I agree that coingar...
by langlands
Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6565
Views: 617485

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

My biggest concern right now is TMF's yields combined with absurdly high financing costs. I am waiting for the annual report of TMF, coming around October 31st. I want to see just exactly how much interest they are paying on swaps. The April report said that they were paying apparently 1.2% in inte...
by langlands
Sun Oct 04, 2020 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6565
Views: 617485

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Stop playing with inverse volatility, adaptive allocation, whatever, etc. You will get burned. I'm saying this as someone who played around with inverse volatility (SPY/IEF, 8%). It looked GREAT in backtests. So I started doing it around the start of 2018. Two years later, my CAGR is half as buy an...
by langlands
Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reversion to the Mean Sector Investing
Replies: 11
Views: 824

Re: Reversion to the Mean Sector Investing

VBR also loads on the small factor. It is not an appropriate comparator for the SP 500. What are the breakdowns of VTV, Vanguard's large-cap-value fund? I posted VBR because most value adherents here seem to focus mostly on SCV (so just pretend I said small value instead of value in that post :happ...
by langlands
Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reversion to the Mean Sector Investing
Replies: 11
Views: 824

Re: Reversion to the Mean Sector Investing

I don't know what the market will do in the future. What I do know is that in general, if I can invest in a sector where my dollar buys more earnings than in another sector, over the long term there should be outsized returns compared to the market as a whole. Investing is not that simple. If you i...
by langlands
Fri Oct 02, 2020 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long after starting investing, did you start to be happy about the power of compounding?
Replies: 186
Views: 19813

Re: How long after starting investing, did you start to be happy about the power of compounding?

They are differentiated by reinvesting, AKA compounding. If I have $100 invested in an equity returning 5%... After 1 year I have $100 in contributions and I get a 5% return on the $100 which is 5 bucks. My market gains are $5. I have $105 going into year 2. After the second year I still have the s...
by langlands
Fri Oct 02, 2020 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reversion to the Mean Sector Investing
Replies: 11
Views: 824

Re: Reversion to the Mean Sector Investing

This looks a lot like value factor investing, except on the level of sectors instead of individual stocks. You get outperformance up through 2008 and then underperformance since.
by langlands
Fri Oct 02, 2020 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we NOW in a bubble?
Replies: 103
Views: 11075

Re: Are we NOW in a bubble?

Yes, you should never have too much risk, but I think that retail investors are actually better positioned than "sophisticated" institutional investors to move out of the market in times of distress. Basically, this is because you don't have a lot of money while institutional investors do. If Buffe...
by langlands
Fri Oct 02, 2020 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we NOW in a bubble?
Replies: 103
Views: 11075

Re: Are we NOW in a bubble?

I think the idea of having too much risk, with the idea of pulling out if things begin to go downhill is precarious because it may not be possible to pull out quick enough. For instance, if things tank overnight, you'll have to wait for the morning. I remember during 2008, a relative of mine tried ...