Search found 114 matches

by illumination
Thu Sep 19, 2019 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Bonds reaching negative
Replies: 29
Views: 3342

Re: US Bonds reaching negative

I'm not playing along if it goes negative, I know that. Which I guess is the whole point why they do it, it would be like purposely not changing behavior that a new tax code is trying to encourage. I really do think this will become a "greater fool's" type gamble to buy negative interest rate bonds ...
by illumination
Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is avoiding negative bond yields market timing?
Replies: 28
Views: 1635

Re: Is avoiding negative bond yields market timing?

I feel like negative yields are something closer to a tax. Some institutions and investors are essentially trapped into paying it. I certainly wouldn't go out of my way to find a way to pay an extra tax for a foreign government's monetary policy that many would love to escape. Places like Japan and ...
by illumination
Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are TIPS really a good inflation hedge? Pros and Cons
Replies: 129
Views: 6855

Re: Are TIPS really a good inflation hedge? Pros and Cons

I do what I can to manage the risks I feel are truly manageable. My wife survived hyperinflation in Brazil during the 1980s, which makes anything that happened in the USA look minuscule by comparison. Her solution was to move here. If Inflation got bad enough here, I would move to a better environm...
by illumination
Mon Sep 16, 2019 3:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing an Inherited IRA
Replies: 19
Views: 1083

Re: Rebalancing an Inherited IRA

Even if stocks made sense to purchase in the past, the idea they will always be solid companies to keep forever is just not the reality we live in. This was a big problem with my own dad's portfolio, he actually made "good" stock picks, but they were good picks a long time ago. He was a longtime emp...
by illumination
Mon Sep 16, 2019 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy being killed?
Replies: 116
Views: 9919

Re: Is the 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy being killed?

Stormbringer wrote:
Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:35 am
The very notion of lending 40% of my money for free or worse (at least in real terms) really makes me scratch my head.
I agree

The rules have changed and using the same principles from the past on this makes about as much sense as pretending we still have the same tax code from 30 years ago.
by illumination
Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil price going to a $100-- time to change your asset allocation??
Replies: 86
Views: 8157

Re: Oil price going to a $100-- time to change your asset allocation??

FWIW, I do think energy stocks are REALLY cheap anyway, and in sectors that aren't just tied to the price of a barrel of oil, but I don't plan on buying specifically in this sector on this news. This sector has been really cheap for a while now, wouldn't surprise me if this is just a short term blip...
by illumination
Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can’t pull the trigger
Replies: 15
Views: 2694

Re: Can’t pull the trigger

What about just splitting the difference and put in like $5,000 a month until it's all in there? If a big movement downward happens, you increase the amount. DCA loses to lump sum. Well I'm not touting the superiority of DCA over lump sum, only proposing a solution between two extremes. Ultimately,...
by illumination
Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 253
Views: 26245

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Most of my small caps are SLYV. I like the lower expense ratio, and it trades for free at my brokerage. At least according to the backtesting, it outperforms VIOV and IJS to as far back as they all 3 go (but it's a pretty trivial the amount) If I could do it all over again, I probably would have jus...
by illumination
Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can’t pull the trigger
Replies: 15
Views: 2694

Re: Can’t pull the trigger

What about just splitting the difference and put in like $5,000 a month until it's all in there? If a big movement downward happens, you increase the amount.
by illumination
Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Central banks drive income seeking investors to equities
Replies: 34
Views: 1784

Re: Central banks drive income seeking investors to equities

What's the term "it's not a bug, it's a feature" ? This all seems by design to me. I don't really know what to do, if investors could get something like 5% risk free, there would be a mass exodus out of the stock market. And that would wreck the economy. Which would then require Central banks to onc...
by illumination
Sat Sep 14, 2019 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity beating vanguard now? switch to Fidelity?
Replies: 121
Views: 5097

Re: Vanguard is Falling Behind Compared to Fidelity

Most of my funds are Vanguard and I plan to keep it that way. So if anything, I have a bias towards them. I also hold Bogle in high regard. But as a brokerage, Vanguard is just not up to snuff. I had a really horrible experience with them and left. I also thought their platform was about 20 years ou...
by illumination
Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: UPDATE: Vanguard Target Date Fund almost always better than Edward Jones?
Replies: 36
Views: 2257

Re: UPDATE: Vanguard Target Date Fund almost always better than Edward Jones?

I would say I'm 99% certain the answer would be yes over any sort of long term horizon, but we really don't that data on the Edward Jones side. It also has so many variables, like what products they sell for different clients at different stages, the clients' tax bracket, their risk profile etc. I j...
by illumination
Sun Sep 08, 2019 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Girlfriend/Living Will/Trust question...
Replies: 19
Views: 1879

Re: Girlfriend/Living Will/Trust question...

I'd inform your grandfather and uncle of everything, then let them decide. What's especially disturbing is "his" portion of the estate could very well just end up in somebody else's hands they have never even met because your father is has some sort of combination of just not caring or mental illnes...
by illumination
Sat Sep 07, 2019 4:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Banks requiring fingerprint on a check for non-customers to receive cash
Replies: 87
Views: 5621

Re: Banks requiring fingerprint on a check for non-customers to receive cash

FWIW, I worked in a bank part time in the 90's and this was standard procedure for EVERY person that cashed a check that didn't have an account there. And people always complained. Fraud/check counterfeiting was a big issue and it was just a tool to collect evidence. I think a lot of "mules" were se...
by illumination
Sat Sep 07, 2019 3:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Locating a good, unbiased “financial advisor”
Replies: 15
Views: 1548

Re: Locating a good, unbiased “financial advisor”

Of all the brokerages I've used over the years, far and away the absolute worst was Wells Fargo. And I used to work there many years ago. I also found the "private bank" and all the people that worked there were just awful. They really have no business being in that industry. The best way to get the...
by illumination
Sat Sep 07, 2019 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does a FA make sense at a certain portfolio level?
Replies: 53
Views: 4183

Re: Does a FA make sense at a certain portfolio level?

Hi Everyone - I have been reading BH for awhile, and understand the pitfalls of going with a FA vs the BH way. I'm curious though if at some point of wealth it does make sense to have a FA? Whether it's to have a coordinated taxable and non-taxable picture, tax-efficient strategy, etc.. When I say ...
by illumination
Sat Sep 07, 2019 2:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Middle Age people with low savings need to take on more investment risk than is normal?
Replies: 52
Views: 5616

Re: Middle Age people with low savings need to take on more investment risk than is normal?

It really is a paradox. They need the returns that more risk gives, but they don't have the room for error. I know this contradicts boglehead philosophy , but I could see myself having a relatively conservative portfolio, but be willing to change my asset allocation to more risk during a bear market...
by illumination
Sat Sep 07, 2019 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does a FA make sense at a certain portfolio level?
Replies: 53
Views: 4183

Re: Does a FA make sense at a certain portfolio level?

I can definitely see where Estate attorneys, CPAs, and fee only advisors.

But a traditional financial advisor that takes his fee from a percent of fees under management is really throwing away a lot of money with a big portfolio. Unfortunately, this is a lot of people.
by illumination
Fri Sep 06, 2019 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Contest -- "Wall Street has no idea how stocks will end 2019, with forecasts ranging from down 5% to up 11%"
Replies: 27
Views: 2727

Re: Boglehead Contest -- "Wall Street has no idea how stocks will end 2019, with forecasts ranging from down 5% to up 11

In fairness to the "Wall Street Experts", their average guess of 3027.69 is much closer the actual current S&P (2976.00) than is the average Bogleheads guess of 2613.71. So, year-to-date it appears the Wall Street Experts knew more than we did at the beginning of the year. IMHO this board is has so...
by illumination
Wed Sep 04, 2019 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]
Replies: 216
Views: 20896

Re: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]

I didn't find his reasons convincing at all. And while I'm sure Michael Burry is FAR more knowledgeable than I am on investment markets, the idea that because this guy figured out the subprime mortgage market was a bubble doesn't exactly make him a genius in my book. I remember EVERYONE knowing it w...
by illumination
Tue Sep 03, 2019 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best of Bogleheads - your #1 takeaway
Replies: 151
Views: 14155

Re: Best of Bogleheads - your #1 takeaway

For me, it was market timing. I had never really looked at it that every day you "stay" in stocks, it really is no different than deciding that day to make a purchase. That revelation made me much more interested in simply figuring out an asset allocation and leaving it there than strategically figu...
by illumination
Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity: When Zero does not mean free
Replies: 108
Views: 10831

Re: Fidelity: When Zero does not mean free

I could easily see this product simply being a loss leader, without any "tricks" to the consumer. Look at this way, Vanguard charges .03% expense ratio for their total market ETF: VTI. So for every $1,000,000 in assets, there's $300 in fees. Is it really so outlandish that Fidelity would "eat" the $...
by illumination
Mon Sep 02, 2019 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2 year old A/C leak, $$
Replies: 20
Views: 1658

Re: 2 year old A/C leak, $$

I really think you need to call the manufacturer and see if they handle this on their dime. I was on a different forum regarding AC installations and my understanding is situations like this they will sometimes make you whole, even though labor is not specifically covered. Especially since you bough...
by illumination
Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mer. Lynch Buddy ... Bonds in Tax Account ... Stocks Only
Replies: 24
Views: 1656

Re: Mer. Lynch Buddy ... Bonds in Tax Account ... Stocks Only

FWIW, I've seen first hand up close and personal how some of the "top" financial planners for high net worth clients perform from a variety of those types of firms. I have never seen any of them outperform something like the S&P500, and that's not even really getting into the tax issues of buying an...
by illumination
Thu Aug 22, 2019 9:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTSAX dividend increase?
Replies: 3
Views: 1000

Re: VTSAX dividend increase?

As a percentage, it would increase, but the actual amount would stay the same (in this hypothetical) So if a $10 ETF currently pays a $1 dividend, that's 10% yield. If the ETF falls in price to $5, it can still pay a $1 dividend, but that now represents a 20% yield compared to the share price. But o...
by illumination
Mon Aug 19, 2019 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE shares tank more than 13% after Madoff whistleblower calls it a ‘bigger fraud than Enron'
Replies: 101
Views: 10442

Re: GE shares tank more than 13% after Madoff whistleblower calls it a ‘bigger fraud than Enron'

I'm also highly skeptical, especially with the comparison to saying a fraud "bigger than Enron". If this ends up being just hyperbole, I really think people that engage in this should face real penalties. This report wiped out billions of dollars all to turn a profit. It sure looks like someone tra...
by illumination
Sun Aug 18, 2019 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE shares tank more than 13% after Madoff whistleblower calls it a ‘bigger fraud than Enron'
Replies: 101
Views: 10442

Re: GE shares tank more than 13% after Madoff whistleblower calls it a ‘bigger fraud than Enron'

I'm also highly skeptical, especially with the comparison to saying a fraud "bigger than Enron". If this ends up being just hyperbole, I really think people that engage in this should face real penalties. This report wiped out billions of dollars all to turn a profit. It sure looks like someone trad...
by illumination
Sun Aug 18, 2019 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How about an 856-year bond?
Replies: 24
Views: 3246

Re: How about an 856-year bond?

I think older stock and bond data is interesting from an academic standpoint, but I really think it's essentially useless for making assumptions about the future. You had things like a gold standard, a far smaller population that owned and bought these instruments, very little regulation and transpa...
by illumination
Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: solo 401k management fees
Replies: 12
Views: 698

Re: solo 401k management fees

I don't pay a penny at Schwab for my Solo 401k. I do have to fill out my own 5500-EZ form every year as a result of assets (it's like a 10 minute form) That part did "sneak up on me" , my former CPA assured me Schwab filled this out and sent it to the IRS. Nope. I got it straightened out without any...
by illumination
Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Revisiting EE Bonds given 20 year treasury bond at ~1.9%
Replies: 31
Views: 2364

Re: Revisiting EE Bonds given 20 year treasury bond at ~1.9%

Hard pass. If my alternative is to lockup money for 20 years with an option to remove for most of my interest, I'm putting it in equities. I feel the same way. If after 20 years your equities didn't return 3.5% per year, I can see plausible scenarios where those EE bonds are worthless anyway. It re...
by illumination
Sat Aug 17, 2019 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Single-stock investing in taxable or Roth?
Replies: 39
Views: 1668

Re: Single-stock investing in taxable or Roth?

What about splitting the difference? Half in Roth, half in taxable? For the record, my vote is taxable. I had a good friend that worked for a publicly traded company as their CFO, so someone who knew the business in and out as well as anyone could. And the guy really is smart. He put a HUGE chunk of...
by illumination
Fri Aug 16, 2019 6:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taking a break in your 50s: Is it the kiss of death?
Replies: 86
Views: 8379

Re: Taking a break in your 50s: Is it the kiss of death?

You have the financial cushion most don't have and will be fine, but honestly, yes, I think in many industries it can be a kiss of death. Finding a job to move to with a 40 hour week should be the goal while you are currently employed. You're better putting the time in now for your career and retiri...
by illumination
Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard wants me to call to buy OTC securities.
Replies: 17
Views: 1617

Re: Vanguard wants me to call to buy Bitcoin.

Bitcoin purchases could easily be the number one potential "fraud" purchase for an institution like Vanguard. Forcing a phone call probably filters out a lot of the scammers. Maybe its because of the security traded or maybe its just all buys are like that, but I would DEFINITELY want my brokerage f...
by illumination
Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not invest in sector ETFs?
Replies: 32
Views: 2476

Re: Why not invest in sector ETFs?

Picking the wrong one is the problem. Look at something like VDE. Vanguard's Energy ETF. You would have lost quite a bit compared to investing in a total index fund. I dabble with these sector ETFs for a small part of my portfolio, and most have truthfully done well. It sort of gets "trading" out of...
by illumination
Thu Aug 15, 2019 9:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need Creative Solutions for Billing Expenses to Renter
Replies: 27
Views: 2359

Re: Need Creative Solutions for Billing Expenses to Renter

I will say on two different former rental properties, there were arguments about the tenant's utility bill. The first time, I had a short term rental where I kept the bill in my name, and the tenant was convinced we were lying about the actual bill. Turn out they just liked it ice cold. The 2nd one ...
by illumination
Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Plan- jitters,news,volatility
Replies: 3
Views: 649

Re: My Plan- jitters,news,volatility

News is a business that has to generate money. Nobody "clicks" or tunes in for a headline like "Possible minor bump in the road ahead!!" Instead, it's comparisons to 1929 and everyone is going to be on bread lines. Because that sells, unfortunately. The analysis one of the major brokers did where th...
by illumination
Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lawsuit suggests MIT allowed Fidelity to pack retirement plans with high-fee funds
Replies: 54
Views: 4547

Re: Lawsuit suggests MIT allowed Fidelity to pack retirement plans with high-fee funds

I'm still mystified why there can't be a change in the laws that basically let's everyone have their own "Solo" 401k, even if they aren't self employed. It would just be like an IRA is now, but obviously with higher limits. Employers could just deposit their part of the contribution directly into t...
by illumination
Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $34 per year to reduce auto deductible by $500
Replies: 31
Views: 2369

Re: $34 per year to reduce auto deductible by $500

I would take the higher deductible. In general, I try to only insure events that are really debilitating financially. To pay more for insurance to potentially save $500 on a very unlikely event (you getting in a wreck that's your fault) just seems like a waste. And you only really want to engage ins...
by illumination
Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE shares tank more than 13% after Madoff whistleblower calls it a ‘bigger fraud than Enron'
Replies: 101
Views: 10442

Re: GE shares tank more than 13% after Madoff whistleblower calls it a ‘bigger fraud than Enron'

There are so many laws about insider trading and other things involved with knowledge about how a stock could go. How could it be legal for a company to take a short position and then publish information that might make the stock tank? I read this guy's book on the Madoff scandal. He's a very good ...
by illumination
Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lawsuit suggests MIT allowed Fidelity to pack retirement plans with high-fee funds
Replies: 54
Views: 4547

Re: Lawsuit suggests MIT allowed Fidelity to pack retirement plans with high-fee funds

I'm still mystified why there can't be a change in the laws that basically let's everyone have their own "Solo" 401k, even if they aren't self employed. It would just be like an IRA is now, but obviously with higher limits. Employers could just deposit their part of the contribution directly into th...
by illumination
Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can having wealthy parents be a justification for a more aggressive investment strategy?
Replies: 97
Views: 7243

Re: Can having wealthy parents be a justification for a more aggressive investment strategy?

I think in the situation the OP outlined, yes, I would invest more aggressively. Maybe that's reckless, but there's people here that don't have a backstop like that that go 100% equities outside their emergency funds. Just don't "spend" like there's a huge windfall on its way. And don't start "gambl...
by illumination
Tue Aug 13, 2019 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Domestic returns next 10 years
Replies: 45
Views: 3028

Re: Domestic returns next 10 years

Are these forecasts ever consistently right? Hasn't the Nobel Prize winning Shiller with his CAPE Index been wrong about its predictions for the last 20 years about the future returns of the stock market? When you see "experts" make predictions that are all over the place, it goes back to "nobody kn...
by illumination
Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fate of the World’s Largest ETF Is Tied to 11 Random Millennials
Replies: 13
Views: 2320

Re: The Fate of the World’s Largest ETF Is Tied to 11 Random Millennials

I'm sort of confused, if you technically held SPY past the date it terminates, does that mean the fund liquidates and you would then have a taxable event? Can someone "screw this up" so to speak where they don't move things over? One would think since ETFs have become such a mainstream way to invest...
by illumination
Sun Aug 11, 2019 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to sell I-Bonds?
Replies: 18
Views: 1926

Re: Is it time to sell I-Bonds?

No way would I fool with I-bonds if they made up only 6% of my portfolio. Almost all my fixed income is in money market mutual funds. I use to have a hodgepodge of CDs, high Yield Savings, bond funds, etc. It's just so easy with money market mutual funds and I essentially have instant liquidity and ...
by illumination
Fri Aug 09, 2019 6:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pretty much broke --- what would you advise?
Replies: 85
Views: 9318

Re: Pretty much broke --- what would you advise?

Find a part of the country with LCOL and they both get jobs that are "beneath" them. If even one of them got a part-time, low stress job, it would be a game changer. I would put the overwhelming majority they have for retirement in fixed income, at least until they can secure employment. They can't ...
by illumination
Fri Aug 09, 2019 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FA's outperforming market, need stats
Replies: 6
Views: 677

Re: FA's outperforming market, need stats

Is there any sort of stats on average financial advisor performance? Not just actively managed mutual fund performance? It's almost a given a financial advisor that charges a fee will then put a client into an array of actively managed mutual fund that also have high expense ratios and sales loads. ...
by illumination
Fri Aug 09, 2019 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do dividends still exist?
Replies: 204
Views: 11798

Re: Why do dividends still exist?

Not every company could deploy what they would pay in dividends into something that would instead add share value. Some investors specifically want companies that pay reliable dividends. I do think there's something to the theory that certain companies are more efficient if they operate under the as...
by illumination
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard customer service
Replies: 44
Views: 2275

Re: Vanguard Customer Service Recently

My experience has been similar. I found Vanguard as a brokerage to be terrible.

I like Vanguard funds and plan to keep most of my money in them. I have been really happy with both Schwab and Fidelity.
by illumination
Wed Aug 07, 2019 1:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone running 50/50 stock bond who is younger?
Replies: 45
Views: 4372

Re: Is anyone running 50/50 stock bond who is younger?

I find it interesting that since the inception of the Total Bond Market fund in 1987, that a portfolio split between global stocks 50/50 us/intl and bonds only lagged an all equity portfolio by about .67% per year. In that era, 10 year treasuries paid around 7% - 9% and inflation was around 3%. If ...
by illumination
Sun Aug 04, 2019 6:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much Small Cap Value?
Replies: 52
Views: 3397

Re: How much Small Cap Value?

Whether to tilt at all is a personal choice. I'm of the mind that if you are going to tilt , small increments are not worth the bother. Less than 20-25% probably isn't worth doing -- it just won't move the needle that much. We tilted heavily from ~1985-2005. 65-75% of our equity was small/mid-cap v...