Search found 119 matches

by mikemikemike
Fri Sep 27, 2019 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [White House deliberates block on all US investments in China]
Replies: 12
Views: 1802

Re: China stocks delisting?

Thanks for the info. I agree that share prices would go down a fair bit if the delisting was announced: just the threat of delisting has had a big negative effect today :( It's good to know that I could probably still sell my shares at some point, through the HK SE. I'm guessing I'd enter the sell o...
by mikemikemike
Fri Sep 27, 2019 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [White House deliberates block on all US investments in China]
Replies: 12
Views: 1802

[White House deliberates block on all US investments in China]

[Thread merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek] Some interesting news today, wherein all Chinese companies might be de-listed from US stock exchanges. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/27/white-house-deliberates-block-on-all-us-investments-in-china.html I own some shares of JD and Alibaba. What w...
by mikemikemike
Thu Sep 26, 2019 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fine Art Investments
Replies: 77
Views: 5400

Re: Fine Art Investments

If there are pieces you like and can afford, buy them. I wouldn't consider it an investment, but rather an expenditure on something you like. If they appreciate a lot in value, that's a bonus. I collect booze (whiskey and wine) not visual art pieces. I use the above logic: don't consider it an inves...
by mikemikemike
Wed Sep 25, 2019 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard frequent trading: help understand
Replies: 21
Views: 1713

Re: Vanguard frequent trading: help understand

It is to discourage trading and keep costs down for fund shareholders which I understand. I understand also, makes sense to me. I was just curious how does the ETF version (VTI), keep the same performance/returns without such a restriction. You should look up the ETF share creation and redemption m...
by mikemikemike
Tue Sep 24, 2019 12:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: First car for child
Replies: 129
Views: 9351

Re: First car for child

I recently gave my kid a little wooden car. It's about 4" long, cost $10, and he loves it. It's also pretty much bullet proof; that's a plus because he sometimes bangs it against the walls and floor.
by mikemikemike
Tue Sep 24, 2019 12:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Physical activity suggestions for a non athletic youth
Replies: 189
Views: 10657

Re: Physical activity suggestions for a non athletic youth

I like sailing; it's a really inclusive sport. You don't need to be ultra-fit to do it, and it opens up a world of adventure.
by mikemikemike
Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Smallest market day portfolio change?
Replies: 13
Views: 1512

Re: Smallest market day portfolio change?

Perhaps you could sell your finding to the companies that run low volatility funds.
by mikemikemike
Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:35 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: equal-weighted index fund
Replies: 16
Views: 1859

Re: equal-weighted index fund

It would provide more diversification. Depending on which companies do well it could give better returns or worse; that's hard to predict. The biggest issue is expenses. With cap-weighting, the fund just buys all the stocks by cap weight and holds them. If some go up in value, their weighting automa...
by mikemikemike
Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why have bond funds been dropping?
Replies: 4
Views: 956

Re: Why have bond funds been dropping?

Yields have gone up a lot in the past couple weeks. Market expectations of rate cuts have gone down. So bonds have dropped a fair bit.
by mikemikemike
Mon Sep 16, 2019 2:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Math is scary
Replies: 42
Views: 7090

Re: Math is scary

Have you taken into account whether your $100k per year living expenses will be reduced by income from SS and/or a pension? If your living expenses are $100k after SS/pension income, for a 4% withdrawal you would need savings of 25x or $2.5 million in today’s dollars. By making the maximum annual 4...
by mikemikemike
Mon Sep 16, 2019 1:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Math is scary
Replies: 42
Views: 7090

Math is scary

I'll be retiring in about 30 years. With inflation roughly halving the real value of money over that period, and a 4% withdrawal rate, that seems to imply that I will need $5MM in year 2050 savings to be able to spend $100K/year (in 2019 dollars). That is around my annual spend. Do I really need tha...
by mikemikemike
Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: American kids attending Canadian Universities??
Replies: 22
Views: 2868

Re: American kids attending Canadian Universities??

I did my undergrad in Canada -- not at any of the very well-known unis -- then PhD at one of the fancy schools in California. (I won't name it specifically, but it's one of Stanford, Berkeley, and CalTech). I didn't find that my Canadian degree was looked down on in any way. I also found that I was ...
by mikemikemike
Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How would one go about shorting Eurozone bonds?
Replies: 22
Views: 1379

Re: How would one go about shorting Eurozone bonds?

You could short, or buy put options, on GGOV (ProShares German Sovereign/Sub-Sovereign ETF), or other ETFs that buy European bonds.

But either of those approaches carry a lot of risk. I would not advise doing either.
by mikemikemike
Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Has the bond bubble finally arrived? If so, is anyone doing anything about it?
Replies: 97
Views: 12175

Re: Has the bond bubble finally arrived? If so, is anyone doing anything about it?

I recently switched all my long term treasury holdings to short term ones. It was nice to profit off the interest rate drops, but I'm ready to take lower interest rate risk, for similar distribution yields (for now, anyway). I accept that this could be costing me some $ if long term rates drop furth...
by mikemikemike
Thu Aug 22, 2019 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Age 92 Dad Wants to Boost stocks
Replies: 71
Views: 12756

Re: Age 92 Dad Wants to Boost stocks

It's his money, so he should be able to do what he wants with it. I would chat with him about how he'd feel about seeing 25% or more of his asset value disappear rapidly in a market decline. If he's okay with that possibility, and has enough set aside that he can still support himself in the event o...
by mikemikemike
Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Freeze coffee beans?
Replies: 22
Views: 1444

Re: Freeze coffee beans?

I wouldn't freeze the beans. +1 for "airtight container in a dark cool space"; put the airtight container down in your wine cellar, for example. But... you can easily experiment on this yourself. Freeze 1/2 the beans you want to save. Store the rest however you want. At end of month, make coffee wit...
by mikemikemike
Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $1M cash: how to invest
Replies: 40
Views: 3965

Re: $1M cash: how to invest

Load up on put options for Beyond Meat. Turn your $1MM into $5MM.

Or.. buy some index funds, with a conservative mix of stocks and bonds. Whatever you prefer.
by mikemikemike
Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Turn off auto-reinvest dividends?
Replies: 22
Views: 2768

Re: Turn off auto-reinvest dividends?

If you do not turn off auto reinvest with Fidelity on Vanguard funds or EFT does Fido charge you a fee each time they reinvest? No. The reinvesting is free. That's a benefit vs letting the cash hit your account then reinvesting yourself: the "manual" process costs you the $5 trading commissions, wh...
by mikemikemike
Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: callable debentures?
Replies: 4
Views: 295

Re: callable debentures?

If you think it's overpriced, don't buy it. I agree that it sounds fishy for it to be priced above $25, but I'm not expert. That's part of the reason why I wouldn't buy this.
by mikemikemike
Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 50-60k boat purchase??
Replies: 84
Views: 6678

Re: 50-60k boat purchase??

One way to interpret the advice on this site is to remember that this is the same group that argues against spending an extra $0.5 on better ice cream...

Just buy the boat. Boats are great. You can afford it. It's not a finance question so much as a "what to do with your discretionary $". Enjoy.
by mikemikemike
Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rates low: leverage up?
Replies: 63
Views: 5354

Re: Interest rates low: leverage up?

Try backtesting your 80/20 stocks/bonds against something like 50% VOO, 30% UPRO, and 20% BND.

You should see the leveraged thing come out ahead.
by mikemikemike
Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rates low: leverage up?
Replies: 63
Views: 5354

Re: Interest rates low: leverage up?

chevca wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:27 pm
Interest rates were low like this not long ago. Why didn't you do this then?
Didn't think of it at that time. Reading some of the hedgefundie etc. stuff here got this brilliant idea percolating.
by mikemikemike
Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rates low: leverage up?
Replies: 63
Views: 5354

Re: Interest rates low: leverage up?

I think I'll go with the leveraged rotation strategy from Gayed and Billelo (thanks, Rascott for sharing that great paper!)

Only remaining question: where to park my yacht(s) once this succeeds?
by mikemikemike
Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rates low: leverage up?
Replies: 63
Views: 5354

Re: Interest rates low: leverage up?

I appreciate the concern about excessive losses and ending up in debt. That is what happened to market timer and was obviously a disaster. Note that the way I'm implementing this is by buying a 3x leverage ETF with a fraction (30%) of one of my retirement accounts. The worst case for this investment...
by mikemikemike
Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rates low: leverage up?
Replies: 63
Views: 5354

Re: Interest rates low: leverage up?

I'm not opposed to leverage....the ideal leverage on the SP500 is probably around 1.5x for the long term. If you actually could manage to hold that for 30+ years you would most very likely end up with a lot more money. However it would be a wild ride and there is the tail risk of a Great Depression...
by mikemikemike
Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Switch AA 10-year to 2-year Treasuries?
Replies: 61
Views: 4778

Re: Switch AA 10-year to 2-year Treasuries?

You could certainly invoke Pascal's Wager to justify 2 year notes instead of the 10 year bonds. In other words the risk going with 2 year is re-investment risk if rates fall further - while the risk with the 10 year is inflation risk if there is a sharp rise in inflation - arguably more threatening...
by mikemikemike
Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rates low: leverage up?
Replies: 63
Views: 5354

Re: Interest rates low: leverage up?

I am a user of hedgefundie's adventure portfolio and still not sure how I feel about your plan. UPRO tracks 3x the S&P500s daily return but does not track it's longterm return. It really needs to be used to compliment an optimized portfolio. I cannot share this link since it uses simulated UPRO dat...
by mikemikemike
Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rates low: leverage up?
Replies: 63
Views: 5354

Re: Interest rates low: leverage up?

That makes sense. UPRO is basically borrowing each day for their leverage (although they do it with swaps not actual borrowing, but premiums should still be determined by interest rates of the duration of the swap, which is short term). So if I wanted to use interest rates as a marker of when levera...
by mikemikemike
Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rates low: leverage up?
Replies: 63
Views: 5354

Interest rates low: leverage up?

Interest rates are very low. That makes bonds less attractive to buy (although the ones I've held for a while have obviously made me a ton of money). It also makes it cheaper to borrow money to buy stocks. I have around 30 years until retirement, so am thinking of following market timer, hedgefundie...
by mikemikemike
Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Healthy fast food
Replies: 152
Views: 11860

Re: Healthy fast food

I like the filet-o-fish. Eating them daily helps maintain my status as a very stable genius. If that's not healthy, I don't know what is.
by mikemikemike
Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: when blood in the market...
Replies: 15
Views: 2363

Re: when blood in the market...

S&P 500 is down less than 6% from all time highs. I don't think it yet qualifies as "blood in the market"

But if/when it does get there, seems like buying more stocks is a good idea. (Rebalancing is one way to do that)
by mikemikemike
Fri Aug 02, 2019 3:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anybody with experience in buying a charter boat?
Replies: 1
Views: 339

Re: Anybody with experience in buying a charter boat?

I'm guessing you'd pay tax on all the charter rental income just as regular income. You should consult a tax attorney. If you can write off the boat depreciation as an expense against that incoming income, even better (reduce taxes). I've thought about setting up my boat in a charter fleet like this...
by mikemikemike
Fri Aug 02, 2019 9:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you decide what car to buy for your kid
Replies: 91
Views: 4837

Re: How do you decide what car to buy for your kid

Factors:

1) Safety (and relatedly: reliability).
2) Cheap to buy, insure and operate.
3) Ability to haul gear around for their hobbies (boats, bikes, boards, etc.)

Those are the factors.

Something like a Subaru Impreza or Forester fits that bill for my family. YMMV.
by mikemikemike
Wed Jul 31, 2019 6:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Structured Notes- Should I have some in my portfolio?
Replies: 14
Views: 1077

Re: Structured Notes- Should I have some in my portfolio?

TLDR; no to structured notes in portfolio, yes to structured writing in forum posts.
by mikemikemike
Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sell paid off house, invest proceeds and rent
Replies: 47
Views: 4120

Re: Sell paid off house, invest proceeds and rent

You make a good point. My 250 month's cut-off value could be too high. Maybe 200 is a better number. Still just a rule of thumb of course.

I agree with your uncle, of course: if it's only 100 months' rent to buy the place (1% incoming in rent per month), buy it. And rent it out for profit.
by mikemikemike
Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sell paid off house, invest proceeds and rent
Replies: 47
Views: 4120

Re: Sell paid off house, invest proceeds and rent

Your house cost / rent ratio is not favorable for renting. (With only 160 months' rent paying the house value). I recently sold my house and started renting. To buy the house I'm renting would cost 300 months' rent, so it's a situation that favors renting. These situations are complicated, but I'd s...
by mikemikemike
Mon Jul 29, 2019 6:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Box wine- update and recommendations?
Replies: 73
Views: 8297

Re: Box wine- update and recommendations?

The "from the tank" box wines, imported to USA by Jenny & Francois selections, are quite decent.

This article has some other suggestions: https://www.winemag.com/2018/06/26/box-wine/
by mikemikemike
Fri Jul 26, 2019 6:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Quelling Car Fever
Replies: 57
Views: 3564

Re: Quelling Car Fever

Sounds like your car fever is pretty manageable.

When you catch the contagious boat / helicopter fever, then it's time to panic.
by mikemikemike
Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Successful so far, but paralyzed with options and uncertainty
Replies: 12
Views: 1641

Re: Successful so far, but paralyzed with options and uncertainty

1. My fear of loss is greater than my desire for gain. Given this, and knowing it won't change, what would you do? Invest conservatively. I think you're too far in that direction, and something like 40% stocks / 60% bonds would be better but still very conservative. 2. What am I not thinking of that...
by mikemikemike
Tue Jul 23, 2019 8:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ontario in August
Replies: 29
Views: 2005

Re: Ontario in August

Ontario is larger than France (or Texas). So you might want to narrow your focus down to some specific region(s).
by mikemikemike
Thu Jul 18, 2019 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: wine in cans
Replies: 34
Views: 2754

Re: wine in cans

I collect wine and drink a lot of fancy wine at home out of my good Zalto stems; I'm especially partial to Burgundy. Fancy wine comes in bottles. That's just how it is. I also drink wine straight from the can while picknicking or sailing. Often drink a whole can (1/2 bottle). For this use case, it's...
by mikemikemike
Sat Jul 06, 2019 5:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone here investing in Prison REITs?
Replies: 30
Views: 3204

Re: Anyone here investing in Prison REITs?

Thanks for all the replies. This has been a really enlightening discussion. Seems like -- ethics stuff aside -- this isn't that obviously good financial move it first seemed like. My thought was that maybe other investors were shying away from these REITs due to ethics concerns, leading them to be u...
by mikemikemike
Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone here investing in Prison REITs?
Replies: 30
Views: 3204

Anyone here investing in Prison REITs?

I was curious about the companies behind the private prisons. At least two of them are publicly traded REITs: GEO and CXW, and they return 8% and 9% dividends right now. That's insanely high. The market for prisons is also unlikely to dry up. Of course there are ethical concerns -- that I'll ask you...
by mikemikemike
Fri Jul 05, 2019 7:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 50-60k boat purchase??
Replies: 84
Views: 6678

Re: 50-60k boat purchase??

my wife cried when we sold our first boat. they were not tears of joy.
by mikemikemike
Fri Jul 05, 2019 7:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a suit
Replies: 35
Views: 2561

Re: Buying a suit

How much do you want to spend? And what sort of crowd do you want to impress? There is no substitute for custom fitting, if that's the way you roll. I've had suits from $100 to $2000. There is a difference. But I have no desire or need for a high end suit anymore. The biggest change in the last few...
by mikemikemike
Fri Jul 05, 2019 7:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 50-60k boat purchase??
Replies: 84
Views: 6678

Re: 50-60k boat purchase??

Boats are great. If you save ~20% + of your income, and have the money to spare, buy a boat. (I have a 28' sailboat that I adore and spend a lot of time on). Boats can also be expensive: 60K isn't necessarily "too much". But I would remove boat purchase from the "financial planning" side of your lif...
by mikemikemike
Wed Jul 03, 2019 5:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best REIT? VNQ vs O
Replies: 12
Views: 2092

Re: Best REIT? VNQ vs O

I think that O is among the holdings of VNQ.

So it's like comparing owning MSFT vs VOO. Recently, MSFT has been a much more profitable investment. Going forward, it's hard to know if that one company will outperform the whole index.

Same goes for O vs VNQ.
by mikemikemike
Wed Jul 03, 2019 5:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Pick one: $135,000 rental property or $110,000 in REITs
Replies: 89
Views: 12348

Re: Pick one: $135,000 rental property or $110,000 in REITs

REITS seem like a no brainer here: More diversification in geography and property type, so appreciation in value is less sensitive to the specific house you have. Less risk of a single huge maintenance bill or extended vacancy. Less work on your part. Much more liquid. Not that much lower rent / dis...