Search found 104 matches

by mikemikemike
Thu Aug 22, 2019 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Age 92 Dad Wants to Boost stocks
Replies: 57
Views: 9185

Re: Age 92 Dad Wants to Boost stocks

It's his money, so he should be able to do what he wants with it. I would chat with him about how he'd feel about seeing 25% or more of his asset value disappear rapidly in a market decline. If he's okay with that possibility, and has enough set aside that he can still support himself in the event o...
by mikemikemike
Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Freeze coffee beans?
Replies: 22
Views: 1291

Re: Freeze coffee beans?

I wouldn't freeze the beans. +1 for "airtight container in a dark cool space"; put the airtight container down in your wine cellar, for example. But... you can easily experiment on this yourself. Freeze 1/2 the beans you want to save. Store the rest however you want. At end of month, make coffee wit...
by mikemikemike
Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $1M cash: how to invest
Replies: 40
Views: 3293

Re: $1M cash: how to invest

Load up on put options for Beyond Meat. Turn your $1MM into $5MM.

Or.. buy some index funds, with a conservative mix of stocks and bonds. Whatever you prefer.
by mikemikemike
Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Turn off auto-reinvest dividends?
Replies: 17
Views: 1768

Re: Turn off auto-reinvest dividends?

If you do not turn off auto reinvest with Fidelity on Vanguard funds or EFT does Fido charge you a fee each time they reinvest? No. The reinvesting is free. That's a benefit vs letting the cash hit your account then reinvesting yourself: the "manual" process costs you the $5 trading commissions, wh...
by mikemikemike
Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: callable debentures?
Replies: 4
Views: 242

Re: callable debentures?

If you think it's overpriced, don't buy it. I agree that it sounds fishy for it to be priced above $25, but I'm not expert. That's part of the reason why I wouldn't buy this.
by mikemikemike
Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 50-60k boat purchase??
Replies: 84
Views: 5817

Re: 50-60k boat purchase??

One way to interpret the advice on this site is to remember that this is the same group that argues against spending an extra $0.5 on better ice cream...

Just buy the boat. Boats are great. You can afford it. It's not a finance question so much as a "what to do with your discretionary $". Enjoy.
by mikemikemike
Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rates low: leverage up?
Replies: 63
Views: 4472

Re: Interest rates low: leverage up?

Try backtesting your 80/20 stocks/bonds against something like 50% VOO, 30% UPRO, and 20% BND.

You should see the leveraged thing come out ahead.
by mikemikemike
Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rates low: leverage up?
Replies: 63
Views: 4472

Re: Interest rates low: leverage up?

chevca wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:27 pm
Interest rates were low like this not long ago. Why didn't you do this then?
Didn't think of it at that time. Reading some of the hedgefundie etc. stuff here got this brilliant idea percolating.
by mikemikemike
Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rates low: leverage up?
Replies: 63
Views: 4472

Re: Interest rates low: leverage up?

I think I'll go with the leveraged rotation strategy from Gayed and Billelo (thanks, Rascott for sharing that great paper!)

Only remaining question: where to park my yacht(s) once this succeeds?
by mikemikemike
Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rates low: leverage up?
Replies: 63
Views: 4472

Re: Interest rates low: leverage up?

I appreciate the concern about excessive losses and ending up in debt. That is what happened to market timer and was obviously a disaster. Note that the way I'm implementing this is by buying a 3x leverage ETF with a fraction (30%) of one of my retirement accounts. The worst case for this investment...
by mikemikemike
Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rates low: leverage up?
Replies: 63
Views: 4472

Re: Interest rates low: leverage up?

I'm not opposed to leverage....the ideal leverage on the SP500 is probably around 1.5x for the long term. If you actually could manage to hold that for 30+ years you would most very likely end up with a lot more money. However it would be a wild ride and there is the tail risk of a Great Depression...
by mikemikemike
Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Switch AA 10-year to 2-year Treasuries?
Replies: 61
Views: 3844

Re: Switch AA 10-year to 2-year Treasuries?

You could certainly invoke Pascal's Wager to justify 2 year notes instead of the 10 year bonds. In other words the risk going with 2 year is re-investment risk if rates fall further - while the risk with the 10 year is inflation risk if there is a sharp rise in inflation - arguably more threatening...
by mikemikemike
Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rates low: leverage up?
Replies: 63
Views: 4472

Re: Interest rates low: leverage up?

I am a user of hedgefundie's adventure portfolio and still not sure how I feel about your plan. UPRO tracks 3x the S&P500s daily return but does not track it's longterm return. It really needs to be used to compliment an optimized portfolio. I cannot share this link since it uses simulated UPRO dat...
by mikemikemike
Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rates low: leverage up?
Replies: 63
Views: 4472

Re: Interest rates low: leverage up?

That makes sense. UPRO is basically borrowing each day for their leverage (although they do it with swaps not actual borrowing, but premiums should still be determined by interest rates of the duration of the swap, which is short term). So if I wanted to use interest rates as a marker of when levera...
by mikemikemike
Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rates low: leverage up?
Replies: 63
Views: 4472

Interest rates low: leverage up?

Interest rates are very low. That makes bonds less attractive to buy (although the ones I've held for a while have obviously made me a ton of money). It also makes it cheaper to borrow money to buy stocks. I have around 30 years until retirement, so am thinking of following market timer, hedgefundie...
by mikemikemike
Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Healthy fast food
Replies: 152
Views: 10164

Re: Healthy fast food

I like the filet-o-fish. Eating them daily helps maintain my status as a very stable genius. If that's not healthy, I don't know what is.
by mikemikemike
Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: when blood in the market...
Replies: 15
Views: 2115

Re: when blood in the market...

S&P 500 is down less than 6% from all time highs. I don't think it yet qualifies as "blood in the market"

But if/when it does get there, seems like buying more stocks is a good idea. (Rebalancing is one way to do that)
by mikemikemike
Fri Aug 02, 2019 3:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anybody with experience in buying a charter boat?
Replies: 1
Views: 235

Re: Anybody with experience in buying a charter boat?

I'm guessing you'd pay tax on all the charter rental income just as regular income. You should consult a tax attorney. If you can write off the boat depreciation as an expense against that incoming income, even better (reduce taxes). I've thought about setting up my boat in a charter fleet like this...
by mikemikemike
Fri Aug 02, 2019 9:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you decide what car to buy for your kid
Replies: 91
Views: 3889

Re: How do you decide what car to buy for your kid

Factors:

1) Safety (and relatedly: reliability).
2) Cheap to buy, insure and operate.
3) Ability to haul gear around for their hobbies (boats, bikes, boards, etc.)

Those are the factors.

Something like a Subaru Impreza or Forester fits that bill for my family. YMMV.
by mikemikemike
Wed Jul 31, 2019 6:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Structured Notes- Should I have some in my portfolio?
Replies: 14
Views: 868

Re: Structured Notes- Should I have some in my portfolio?

TLDR; no to structured notes in portfolio, yes to structured writing in forum posts.
by mikemikemike
Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sell paid off house, invest proceeds and rent
Replies: 47
Views: 3699

Re: Sell paid off house, invest proceeds and rent

You make a good point. My 250 month's cut-off value could be too high. Maybe 200 is a better number. Still just a rule of thumb of course.

I agree with your uncle, of course: if it's only 100 months' rent to buy the place (1% incoming in rent per month), buy it. And rent it out for profit.
by mikemikemike
Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sell paid off house, invest proceeds and rent
Replies: 47
Views: 3699

Re: Sell paid off house, invest proceeds and rent

Your house cost / rent ratio is not favorable for renting. (With only 160 months' rent paying the house value). I recently sold my house and started renting. To buy the house I'm renting would cost 300 months' rent, so it's a situation that favors renting. These situations are complicated, but I'd s...
by mikemikemike
Mon Jul 29, 2019 6:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Box wine- update and recommendations?
Replies: 72
Views: 5126

Re: Box wine- update and recommendations?

The "from the tank" box wines, imported to USA by Jenny & Francois selections, are quite decent.

This article has some other suggestions: https://www.winemag.com/2018/06/26/box-wine/
by mikemikemike
Fri Jul 26, 2019 6:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Quelling Car Fever
Replies: 57
Views: 3105

Re: Quelling Car Fever

Sounds like your car fever is pretty manageable.

When you catch the contagious boat / helicopter fever, then it's time to panic.
by mikemikemike
Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Successful so far, but paralyzed with options and uncertainty
Replies: 12
Views: 1507

Re: Successful so far, but paralyzed with options and uncertainty

1. My fear of loss is greater than my desire for gain. Given this, and knowing it won't change, what would you do? Invest conservatively. I think you're too far in that direction, and something like 40% stocks / 60% bonds would be better but still very conservative. 2. What am I not thinking of that...
by mikemikemike
Tue Jul 23, 2019 8:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ontario in August
Replies: 29
Views: 1508

Re: Ontario in August

Ontario is larger than France (or Texas). So you might want to narrow your focus down to some specific region(s).
by mikemikemike
Thu Jul 18, 2019 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: wine in cans
Replies: 34
Views: 2389

Re: wine in cans

I collect wine and drink a lot of fancy wine at home out of my good Zalto stems; I'm especially partial to Burgundy. Fancy wine comes in bottles. That's just how it is. I also drink wine straight from the can while picknicking or sailing. Often drink a whole can (1/2 bottle). For this use case, it's...
by mikemikemike
Sat Jul 06, 2019 5:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone here investing in Prison REITs?
Replies: 30
Views: 2783

Re: Anyone here investing in Prison REITs?

Thanks for all the replies. This has been a really enlightening discussion. Seems like -- ethics stuff aside -- this isn't that obviously good financial move it first seemed like. My thought was that maybe other investors were shying away from these REITs due to ethics concerns, leading them to be u...
by mikemikemike
Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone here investing in Prison REITs?
Replies: 30
Views: 2783

Anyone here investing in Prison REITs?

I was curious about the companies behind the private prisons. At least two of them are publicly traded REITs: GEO and CXW, and they return 8% and 9% dividends right now. That's insanely high. The market for prisons is also unlikely to dry up. Of course there are ethical concerns -- that I'll ask you...
by mikemikemike
Fri Jul 05, 2019 7:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 50-60k boat purchase??
Replies: 84
Views: 5817

Re: 50-60k boat purchase??

my wife cried when we sold our first boat. they were not tears of joy.
by mikemikemike
Fri Jul 05, 2019 7:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a suit
Replies: 35
Views: 2090

Re: Buying a suit

How much do you want to spend? And what sort of crowd do you want to impress? There is no substitute for custom fitting, if that's the way you roll. I've had suits from $100 to $2000. There is a difference. But I have no desire or need for a high end suit anymore. The biggest change in the last few...
by mikemikemike
Fri Jul 05, 2019 7:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 50-60k boat purchase??
Replies: 84
Views: 5817

Re: 50-60k boat purchase??

Boats are great. If you save ~20% + of your income, and have the money to spare, buy a boat. (I have a 28' sailboat that I adore and spend a lot of time on). Boats can also be expensive: 60K isn't necessarily "too much". But I would remove boat purchase from the "financial planning" side of your lif...
by mikemikemike
Wed Jul 03, 2019 5:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best REIT? VNQ vs O
Replies: 7
Views: 982

Re: Best REIT? VNQ vs O

I think that O is among the holdings of VNQ.

So it's like comparing owning MSFT vs VOO. Recently, MSFT has been a much more profitable investment. Going forward, it's hard to know if that one company will outperform the whole index.

Same goes for O vs VNQ.
by mikemikemike
Wed Jul 03, 2019 5:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Pick one: $135,000 rental property or $110,000 in REITs
Replies: 89
Views: 10851

Re: Pick one: $135,000 rental property or $110,000 in REITs

REITS seem like a no brainer here: More diversification in geography and property type, so appreciation in value is less sensitive to the specific house you have. Less risk of a single huge maintenance bill or extended vacancy. Less work on your part. Much more liquid. Not that much lower rent / dis...
by mikemikemike
Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Robotic Lawnmowers?
Replies: 18
Views: 1498

Re: Robotic Lawnmowers?

I had the same thought when I bought my last house (~3 years ago: I've since sold that house). It was 6K square feet of grass. I ended up just paying for a person to come do it every 2 weeks. It sometimes looked a bit shaggy by cutting day, but that didn't bother me. And I didn't need to deal with r...
by mikemikemike
Thu Jun 27, 2019 8:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Neighbor Keeps Mildy Trespassing
Replies: 19
Views: 2948

Re: Neighbor Keeps Mildy Trespassing

Where do you live? In some parts of the world, the best course of action would be to talk to the neighbor again. In others, it would be to talk to police re: nuisance animal. In others, arming yourself might be prudent.

Sorry to hear about this situation: having bad neighbors is rough.
by mikemikemike
Thu Jun 27, 2019 9:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anybody else unable to afford a home/have six figure income?
Replies: 60
Views: 7352

Re: Anybody else unable to afford a home/have six figure income?

Wife and I both make 6 figures and are early 30s. We work in relatively well-paying sectors. We sold our house recently and moved to a new city. Housing costs are very high here (median single family detached home well above $1MM). We rent a house: it would take about 400 months' rent payments to bu...
by mikemikemike
Wed Jun 26, 2019 11:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite mountain lodge destinations in the west?
Replies: 49
Views: 4327

Re: Favorite mountain lodge destinations in the west?

Lake O'Hara lodge is really stunning. It's a bit out of the way, but has fabulous views & recreation opportunities.
by mikemikemike
Sun Jun 23, 2019 7:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your net worth progression
Replies: 1020
Views: 278642

Re: Share your net worth progression

started fairly low. now much higher than before. future is rosy.

(Also I'm just really great at Haiku poetry)
by mikemikemike
Sun Jun 23, 2019 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 278
Views: 24037

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

It's hard to predict which coin will be used in future. If you want to long crypto in general, I'd suggest buying stocks of all the chipmakers. Bonus: also get in on the AI & data center action (minus the in-house new chips like Google TPU's, etc.)
by mikemikemike
Sun Jun 23, 2019 7:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you Casino? What do you play? Have you won?
Replies: 82
Views: 5216

Re: Do you Casino? What do you play? Have you won?

Lot of gamblers on this forum. Is the normal volatility of stock market not enough for you?

[OT comment removed by moderator oldcomputerguy]
by mikemikemike
Fri Jun 21, 2019 12:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Smoke Alarms with 10 Yr Batteries
Replies: 14
Views: 1285

Re: Smoke Alarms with 10 Yr Batteries

Not sure about the exact model, but I have a combined smoke & CO detector on my boat with 10 yr internal batteries. I test it regularly to make sure its working right. I like it because it stays active even if I shut down my boat's house battery and engine.
by mikemikemike
Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone make their own tortillas?
Replies: 37
Views: 3352

Re: Anyone make their own tortillas?

I make corn tortillas when I cook mexico food, which is once every few weeks. I've never done flour tortillas. I buy masa (it's in a big bag like flour, and is mostly finely ground corn plus some other stuff I think). Add a bit of water to make the dough, then smush it into thin disks in my cast iro...
by mikemikemike
Tue Jun 18, 2019 8:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: With hindsight, what signs indicated you were about to lose your job?
Replies: 127
Views: 12217

Re: With hindsight, what signs indicated you were about to lose your job?

It was a slamdunk sure thing 100% sign.

I said "I've accepted a new position at ______________ and will be leaving on ___________".
by mikemikemike
Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What percentage of total portfolio in REIT's do you have? Why? . . Why not?
Replies: 229
Views: 15765

Re: What percentage of total portfolio in REIT's do you have? Why?

I'm at about 10% of portfolio valuation in REIT plus another small amount from my stock index funds (which are ~50% of portfolio). Why do I own these? 1) Real estate is a big part of the economy, that I don't want to miss out on. 2) REITs get favorable tax treatment. Through the REIT structure, they...
by mikemikemike
Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would a war be bullish for bearish for stocks?
Replies: 14
Views: 1122

Re: Would a war be bullish for bearish for stocks?

How has it affected them over the last 17-18 years? This is a good question. This student thesis is the closest I have found to an answer: https://publications.lakeforest.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1079&context=seniortheses TLDR; it depends on the lead up to the war. That seems like a fine aca...
by mikemikemike
Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would a war be bullish for bearish for stocks?
Replies: 14
Views: 1122

Re: Would a war be bullish for bearish for stocks?

How would we distinguish whether the change in the stock market was from a war or not? For instance, what if stocks were bearish in the absence of a war? Or bullish in the absence of a war? The problem is that if there was a war we could attribute lots of things to the war that probably should not ...
by mikemikemike
Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would a war be bullish for bearish for stocks?
Replies: 14
Views: 1122

Would a war be bullish for bearish for stocks?

[I don't want to get derailed by a discussion of current events, so let's not speculate about the likelihood of a hot war breaking out.] I'm trying to understand how a hot war would affect my stock portfolio. Looking back at history, seems mixed in terms of how wars affect US stocks. Curious to hear...