Search found 248 matches

by Prahasaurus
Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow Futures Up Again?
Replies: 131
Views: 8279

Re: Dow Futures Up Again?

And just wait until Brazil or India take off... Isn't the baseline assessment already they will not be able to control it and it will do what it will do? Most of the discussion has been in the abstract, simply because people don't know, and certainly don't want to be alarmist discussing hundreds of...
by Prahasaurus
Mon Apr 06, 2020 2:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow Futures Up Again?
Replies: 131
Views: 8279

Re: Dow Futures Up Again?

The stock market is forward looking, some say about 1 year. With the cases and deaths peaking and then fading and a lot of testing on drugs that seem to be helping, maybe the market is optimistic about a year from now? This is exactly why markets are rising. Not because he's right, actually the opp...
by Prahasaurus
Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for age 29 with $500K to invest. What’s the best play???
Replies: 29
Views: 2818

Re: Advice for age 29 with $500K to invest. What’s the best play???

I would invest 50k in Bitcoin. It’s a great hedge on what I believe is likely: massive societal breakdown in the coming 6-12 months. The rest I’d leave in cash. Just wait 6 more months. Why the rush with so much uncertainty? If you must invest, then I’d recommend allocating a fixed amount monthly i...
by Prahasaurus
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for age 29 with $500K to invest. What’s the best play???
Replies: 29
Views: 2818

Re: Advice for age 29 with $500K to invest. What’s the best play???

I would invest 50k in Bitcoin. It’s a great hedge on what I believe is likely: massive societal breakdown in the coming 6-12 months. The rest I’d leave in cash. Just wait 6 more months. Why the rush with so much uncertainty? If you must invest, then I’d recommend allocating a fixed amount monthly in...
by Prahasaurus
Fri Apr 03, 2020 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 206
Views: 21787

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

For the next 18 months: 80% cash (USD only) 20% bitcoin If you are super conservative, then 80% cash 15% gold 5% bitcoin I would expect huge volatility in Bitcoin, but I think we’ll be 5-10x where we are now in 18 months. You expect 5-10x growth of BTC but only allocating 20% to it? :confused Becau...
by Prahasaurus
Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 206
Views: 21787

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

Lee_WSP wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:03 am
AlphaLess wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 1:43 am Treasuries.
With yields at decade lows, the expected return from holding treasuries is pretty small.
The yields will go lower.
by Prahasaurus
Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 206
Views: 21787

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

For the next 18 months:

80% cash (USD only)
20% bitcoin

If you are super conservative, then

80% cash
15% gold
5% bitcoin

I would expect huge volatility in Bitcoin, but I think we’ll be 5-10x where we are now in 18 months.
by Prahasaurus
Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market is irrational
Replies: 56
Views: 5103

Re: Market is irrational

One of the best valuation experts in the world did a DCF valuation of the S&P 500 and determined around 2700 was a fair value after accounting for corona virus related losses. http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2020/03/a-viral-market-meltdown-iii-pricing-or.html DCF valuations are heavily dependen...
by Prahasaurus
Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 201
Views: 19426

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

I think it's clearly not. And I'm just talking about the known unknowns, e.g. number of Americans who will likely die from this virus. If you look at scientists who are modeling this, they have been fairly spot on across many countries regarding number of cases and likely deaths. The numbers I've h...
by Prahasaurus
Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 201
Views: 19426

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

I think it's clearly not. And I'm just talking about the known unknowns, e.g. number of Americans who will likely die from this virus. If you look at scientists who are modeling this, they have been fairly spot on across many countries regarding number of cases and likely deaths. The numbers I've he...
by Prahasaurus
Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has Your Asset Allocation Strategy Changed?
Replies: 73
Views: 3847

Re: Has Your Asset Allocation Strategy Changed?

Yes, significantly. I was fortunate to be mainly in cash or bonds when this downturn hit. But this downturn - rather, the pandemic - has made me rethink a lot of what I value. One major change is we've decided to stay in Europe, and retire here. We were leaning towards moving back to the USA, but n...
by Prahasaurus
Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 160
Views: 12592

Re: There Is No Gold

Gold won’t buy you entrance into a hospital. I posit that in many cases if you could find the right person to offer the gold to, it definitely could buy you entrance, especially if the local currency was rapidly losing value. Not really an issue in Europe. Of course it's an issue. The problem we ar...
by Prahasaurus
Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 160
Views: 12592

Re: There Is No Gold

Turbo29 wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:42 pm
columbia wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:36 pm Gold won’t buy you entrance into a hospital.
I posit that in many cases if you could find the right person to offer the gold to, it definitely could buy you entrance, especially if the local currency was rapidly losing value.
Not really an issue in Europe.
by Prahasaurus
Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College in fall
Replies: 549
Views: 47102

Re: College in fall

New Providence wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:37 am College is tremendously overpriced even if the classes are in person and not on-line.
This crisis will completely transform US universities. Prices are obscene. US universities will look completely different in 3-4 years. And prices will drop significantly.
by Prahasaurus
Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:44 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 196592

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

What is the problem with going outside as long as we don't congregate in groups? What is the use of stopping people when many have a legitimate reason to be out? In the NYC area the problem is thousands of people live under one roof, going out in the sun and fresh air is better than breathing the s...
by Prahasaurus
Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has Your Asset Allocation Strategy Changed?
Replies: 73
Views: 3847

Re: Has Your Asset Allocation Strategy Changed?

Yes, significantly. I was fortunate to be mainly in cash or bonds when this downturn hit. But this downturn - rather, the pandemic - has made me rethink a lot of what I value. One major change is we've decided to stay in Europe, and retire here. We were leaning towards moving back to the USA, but no...
by Prahasaurus
Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:52 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 196592

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

The 40-140K estimate is only if we maintain the strict social distancing measures we're practicing today. If we relax them the numbers are likely to go up. Newsflash: the USA, by and large, is NOT practicing strict social distancing. Compare what is happening in just about any state with most count...
by Prahasaurus
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 and Dow Futures Hit Limit Down After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open
Replies: 155
Views: 13452

Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Hit Limit Down After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

We need to look for fundamental solutions. Not cheap fixes that will make us feel good for a day, drive the market 5% higher, but then, once reality sets in, the market falls even further. I really hope our lawmakers are up to the challenge, but I sadly fear they are not. We are looking at 30% unemp...
by Prahasaurus
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Major unintended consequences of [Families First Coronavirus Response Act]
Replies: 43
Views: 7429

Re: Major unintended consequences of [Families First Coronavirus Response Act]

I'm taking the opposite tack. I'm using this opportunity to keep employees on the payroll and their households and families and health insurance secure at no cost to me except a bit of paperwork. And they will be there for me later when this is over, unlike if I were to chuck them out on the street...
by Prahasaurus
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: So Who IS Hiring?
Replies: 19
Views: 2572

Re: So Who IS Hiring?

Doctors, nurses, bankruptcy lawyers, any company that enables remote workers, Amazon, Walmart, delivery drivers, union leaders (workers of the world will likely unite after this is a big way). Probably content creators will do well, as everyone is home and bored. Remote schooling solutions. It's lik...
by Prahasaurus
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are the same investors who said they wanted another 2008 now unwilling to buy into the market?
Replies: 31
Views: 2826

Re: Why are the same investors who said they wanted another 2008 now unwilling to buy into the market?

We are in the 2nd inning, and people are still acting as if it’s over. My reasons for waiting longer before investing more cash are twofold: 1. The situation is worse than you realize. 2. The situation will deteriorate. I think these two points have still not been fully realized by a lot of people,...
by Prahasaurus
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:47 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 196592

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I see the number of Hong Kong's Coronavirus cases is rising again. This is very bad, as it means areas that have "defeated" this virus are still prone to additional flare ups. This was predicted, but not good to see it happening so quickly. This almost certainly means the initial draconian quarantin...
by Prahasaurus
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are the same investors who said they wanted another 2008 now unwilling to buy into the market?
Replies: 31
Views: 2826

Re: Why are the same investors who said they wanted another 2008 now unwilling to buy into the market?

We are in the 2nd inning, and people are still acting as if it’s over.

My reasons for waiting longer before investing more cash are twofold:

1. The situation is worse than you realize.

2. The situation will deteriorate.
by Prahasaurus
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:49 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 196592

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Look at this graph. If you're in the USA, congrats. You will soon be world leaders in total Coronavirus cases. Brace for impact... https://i.imgur.com/bq0sIRD.jpg Congrats? I can understand animosity towards the USA and/ or some of our leaders but saying congrats about a disaster that will unfold a...
by Prahasaurus
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4012
Views: 309786

Re: Coronavirus and the market

It's really, really bad. And as I've stated her a number of times, I believe much worse that what is already priced in. I think the country is still in denial. And as I've noted here many times, there are a number of events that will almost certainly happen in the coming weeks that I believe will ta...
by Prahasaurus
Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4012
Views: 309786

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Fed says potentially 30% unemployment, plus we're experiencing an "unprecedented" collapse in economic activity. Someone remind me again why the market is not going to fall another 40%? Seriously, don't tell me 30% unemployment was priced in... We are going to see consumer spending fall off a cliff,...
by Prahasaurus
Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:34 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 196592

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Now for the good news: it seems to be spreading more slowly in hotter, more humid climates, if you do a country by country analysis. So it's very possible we will see a slow down during the summer months. That can hopefully buy us some time. Unfortunately, that may be months away for many parts of t...
by Prahasaurus
Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Incoming College Freshmen 2020 - New Reality
Replies: 24
Views: 2002

Re: Incoming College Freshmen 2020 - New Reality

Too early to know if fall semester will be affected. We are still only in March. I would be more worried about a college senior set to graduate in April or May. It may mean that a school closer to home is a more prudent choice. But, likely too early to make any decisions. Exactly! We are looking at...
by Prahasaurus
Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:39 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 196592

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

They are discharging him. Tested negative for flu. He's feeling a little better due to Tylenol and iv. Have said nothing to daughter about self quarantine. It's all rather unbelievable to me. Oh my, the stress on everyone must be incredible, so sorry... It's CRAZY they cannot test him. CRAZY! I wou...
by Prahasaurus
Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Likelihood of US/major world markets closing due to Coronavirus
Replies: 9
Views: 707

Re: Likelihood of US/major world markets closing due to Coronavirus

If markets close, the least of your problems would be missing out on low prices. In any case, when the markets eventually opened, I'm sure the prices you would see would be well below your wildest dreams.
by Prahasaurus
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daycare closed
Replies: 140
Views: 11076

Re: Daycare closed

Our daycare has closed for at least the next month. We got "store credit" on the unused portion of what we paid for March, to put toward tuition when they open back up. Not sure where you live, but highly unlikely they will open anytime soon. This happened in many European countries, as well. Schoo...
by Prahasaurus
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying house this week
Replies: 22
Views: 2090

Re: Buying house this week

Found a house in the neighborhood we want. Probably only 2-4 houses that meet our criteria sell in this neighborhood per year so it's not common but it does happen. This is one of the very few with a two car garage which we like. The house is well within our means unless both of us lost our jobs fo...
by Prahasaurus
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:59 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 196592

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

nps wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:56 pm
Prahasaurus wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:49 pm To give one example, I think there is a good chance we'll be living under Martian Law in some parts of the country, including New York City.
Whoa :shock:
Ha... :-). Fixed in the original.
by Prahasaurus
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:49 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 196592

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I agree that it's going to get quite bad, but am curious what math is so clear? I think it's wrong to read a couple posts on a financial forum and assume that a whole country is in denial about it. I think most Americans feel it's going to get pretty dire and people are doing what they can to prote...
by Prahasaurus
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:56 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 196592

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Reading through posts here has convinced me the USA is still in denial about what is so obviously going to happen over the next few weeks. The math is clear, the die is cast. That's why I am getting more and more confident the market has also underestimated it. Which means I think we will see signif...
by Prahasaurus
Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
Replies: 301
Views: 18437

Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

I think this is a great learning experience for you, and for probably for a lot of us. It's great you posted here, and great you are doing this type of analysis. I've been through bear markets before, they all seem different, perhaps this time it really is different? We just don't know. You are 36, ...
by Prahasaurus
Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review: Post-Divorce Investing (During a pandemic)
Replies: 17
Views: 1655

Re: Post Divorce Asset Investing (during a pandemic)

Also keep in mind this is an incredibly volatile situation, one that is still playing out daily in real time with massive implications for our investments (and perhaps even lives). I would not rush to conclusions, as what may happen in one week or one month can completely change the overall landscap...
by Prahasaurus
Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:11 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 196592

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I think current patterns clearly show this to be the case. Cold countries are impacted heavily as we can see from the map while countries with hot weather have negligible number of cases. As weather warms, it should reduce in spread as well as intensity significantly. There is no reason to believe ...
by Prahasaurus
Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:04 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 196592

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

The White House presser yesterday talked about hopeful drug protocols that might work. It is being studied by FDA before "approval", however, like any other illness, doctors can prescribe what they feel appropriate. There has been a lot of overly optimistic information presented, e.g. regarding hos...
by Prahasaurus
Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Stocks WILL Go Lower Than it is Now...
Replies: 133
Views: 11461

Re: If Stocks WILL Go Lower Than it is Now...

I am going to simply keep buying stocks. Someday life returns to normal and we should be thankful for staying the course. And if this leads to civilizational collapse and a new Dark Ages, it won't matter what my portfolio strategy is. Exactly and I don't believe it will. China announced 3rd day in ...
by Prahasaurus
Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Stocks WILL Go Lower Than it is Now...
Replies: 133
Views: 11461

Re: If Stocks WILL Go Lower Than it is Now...

I am going to simply keep buying stocks. Someday life returns to normal and we should be thankful for staying the course. And if this leads to civilizational collapse and a new Dark Ages, it won't matter what my portfolio strategy is. Exactly and I don't believe it will. China announced 3rd day in ...
by Prahasaurus
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
Replies: 301
Views: 18437

Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

I disagree the market has priced in what we will see over the next 3-4 weeks. It’s going to get much worse than people realize, and I fear we will be seeing Martial Law in parts of the country soon. The USA did not properly prepare for this, and that will be brutally obvious in a couple of weeks, be...
by Prahasaurus
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4012
Views: 309786

Re: Coronavirus and the market

That being said, I'm 40 and am doing kind of the opposite. I'm tiptoeing in more during this ride down. I'm slowly going from a 70/30 to an 80/20 allocation in 1% moves until I hit the minimum amount of fixed income that I want to keep. It appears that our jobs will be stable through this and I see...
by Prahasaurus
Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Under contract on home...thoughts?
Replies: 21
Views: 1598

Re: Under contract on home...thoughts?

If you are still in an option period, I'd be very tempted to back out (though I can understand why you would want to move forward). I think there's a high chance of a significant drop in real estate prices. If you are moving forward, I'd ask for everything and the kitchen sink. Every minor repair i...
by Prahasaurus
Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:48 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 196592

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

3 - Look for the UK to experience one of the worst outbreaks of any major economic power, in my opinion worse than Italy. They have done next to nothing, only recently starting to take some measures, most of which are "recommendations," which few seem to be following. Testing there has also been sp...
by Prahasaurus
Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For 50-55 Year olds/ What Are you thinking?
Replies: 46
Views: 4788

Re: For 50-55 Year olds/ What Are you thinking?

I'm 53, American, living in Europe. I was fortunate to be massively in cash before this started, mainly because I shifted most of my investments from Europe to the USA, and I was reluctant to commit it to my portfolio for reasons I can't really discuss on this thread (political concerns), and also b...
by Prahasaurus
Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:46 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 196592

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

This has probably been posted before, but I think this is an excellent (and updated) overview of where we are, and what we need to do next: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 It's obviously hard to say how financial markets will continue to react, and wh...
by Prahasaurus
Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Master of biology degree
Replies: 40
Views: 2098

Re: Master of biology degree

Ha, it's so funny to see you all talking about money money money. Advising her to drive an Uber instead! Hilarious. But also sad. Really sad. Maybe the girl likes Biology? Maybe it's something that makes her happy? If you are going to make a career out of something, why not choose a field you are p...
by Prahasaurus
Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: have cash/dry powder- what to invest in?
Replies: 32
Views: 3121

Re: have cash/dry powder- what to invest in?

Put half in Zoom (ZM), the other half in Bitcoin.

You're welcome.