Search found 392 matches

by Hydromod
Wed May 20, 2020 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you have access to TIAA-Traditional, should you own *any* bonds right now?
Replies: 14
Views: 935

Re: If you have access to TIAA-Traditional, should you own *any* bonds right now?

Thanks for all of the replies so far. They are quite helpful. This is not a practical question for most people because it implies you have enough balance in a TIAA employer contract to cover 100% of your bond requirements. If you don't and roll money in from IRAs, you are likely looking at a 1% rat...
by Hydromod
Sun May 17, 2020 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4906
Views: 423909

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I'm about to implement this strategy and wanted to clarify the intended rebalancing — I believe it's quarterly, but are there any other rebalance conditions e.g. 5/25 rebalancing? I believe quarterly works best in backtests and in live data, but I don't want to take my eye off 5/25. I don't have ac...
by Hydromod
Tue May 12, 2020 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contributing, Market Timing, and Never Selling?
Replies: 15
Views: 865

Re: Contributing, Market Timing, and Never Selling?

M1 has a single free window each day at 9 am cst and another in the afternoon for subscription. The market price is whatever is current at the time. You can choose whether or not to buy up to the window. It automatically allocates to the underweight fund. But the only decision I make is the size and...
by Hydromod
Tue May 12, 2020 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contributing, Market Timing, and Never Selling?
Replies: 15
Views: 865

Re: Contributing, Market Timing, and Never Selling?

Thanks for the input. I think I may be coming around to this. At first glance, lower ERs and no minimums make ETFs seem the better choice. But actually having to buy them is frankly terrible, and it introduces all sorts of behavioral risks. Will consider converting everything to mutual funds. Diffe...
by Hydromod
Tue May 12, 2020 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: proportional withdrawal -> no sequence-of-returns risk
Replies: 30
Views: 1344

Re: proportional withdrawal -> no sequence-of-returns risk

It might seem pedantic, but it's helpful to remember that any "risk" has two components: a trigger, and an impact. The risk in "sequence of returns risk" isn't the chance that a particular sequence of returns will occur, per se , but rather is the chance that a particular sequence of returns will o...
by Hydromod
Wed May 06, 2020 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fascinating take on a rebalanced Permanent Portfolio - BreakingTheMarket.com
Replies: 124
Views: 11575

Re: Fascinating take on a rebalanced Permanent Portfolio - BreakingTheMarket.com

There was an update yesterday for two assets plus cash, and this time he provided a google sheet with the example of TLT, SPY, and cash (3-month treasury). Basically the idea is to do the two-asset approach with each pair of assets individually, then use the lowest of the nonzero percentages for eac...
by Hydromod
Tue May 05, 2020 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k down a lot yesterday?
Replies: 8
Views: 782

Re: 401k down a lot yesterday?

Any hints in the pinned thread called why did my fund suddenly drop in value?
by Hydromod
Sun May 03, 2020 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4906
Views: 423909

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I also saw some performance gain with more frequent rebalancing, such as daily or every two days, but that outperformance died off quickly as the rebalancing period increased. I conceptually love the idea of daily rebalancing. Especially with an adaptive allocation risk parity strategy, I think thi...
by Hydromod
Sun May 03, 2020 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4906
Views: 423909

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Maybe this has been posted, but there are a lot of pages and despite the shelter-in-place, I really have better things to do. Is there a way to back test to determine what are the historically best days/months/etc. to contribute & re-balance a portfolio ? Would be curious what impact that would hav...
by Hydromod
Sun Apr 26, 2020 12:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4906
Views: 423909

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

My impression is that the use of VIIX or VXX would be better used as a tactical approach, perhaps swapping it for some TMF when VIX starts rising and swapping back when things calm down. These are implemented using VIX futures, so unlike VIX itself the long-term return is fairly negative. Therefore ...
by Hydromod
Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tool to do personalized backtest w/ specific contribution schedule?
Replies: 10
Views: 460

Re: Tool to do personalized backtest w/ specific contribution schedule?

I thought you wanted to model a standardized contribution. If you want to vary it month by month, you probably should just set up a spreadsheet. It would be a lot of work, since you would also have to enter the month by month returns of each investment. It might not be too bad in google sheets, if ...
by Hydromod
Sun Apr 19, 2020 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fascinating take on a rebalanced Permanent Portfolio - BreakingTheMarket.com
Replies: 124
Views: 11575

Re: Fascinating take on a rebalanced Permanent Portfolio - BreakingTheMarket.com

I'm still not sure how to handle the weights with more than 2 assets. I'm hoping that BTW will give guidance one day on his blog. I have also determined, through brute force, the optimal allocation of a portfolio using all 3 assets. I'll defer the answer for a little bit. I was hoping Jim, BTW, or ...
by Hydromod
Mon Apr 13, 2020 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me figure out the Target Volatility formula
Replies: 73
Views: 4664

Re: Help me figure out the Target Volatility formula

Interesting googledoc. I see that the sheet (and thread) are using daily returns as a substitute for daily volatility. How confident are you all in making that assumption for inverse or target volatility weighting? Would it be possible to use googlefinance to pull down enough info to actually calcu...
by Hydromod
Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:41 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 72292

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I tried a straight logistic fit before seeing your post ( L / 1 + exp(-k(t-t0)) ). (edit: your formula -> -b as t->inf) Where it gets informative is when you plot the derivative, which shows the peak more clearly (but it's much noisier). I find that using a log scale and a moving average of the log...
by Hydromod
Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:59 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 72292

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

A suggestion... Since the curves are flattening, please refrain from predictions based on "if these rates continue." Instead make predictions based on "if the rates of decrease continue,"... Finding the best fit with a decreasing exponential component is more difficult. I'll think about it and see ...
by Hydromod
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:10 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190749

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I put a long entry here talking about Merkel's inverse logistic model from Aleph Blog. I should have put it here instead. It's an interesting approach that says as of yesterday NY has passed 70 to 80% of expected new cases and the US is just past the peak. This is consistent with the data showing ne...
by Hydromod
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfoliovisualizer but with daily data?
Replies: 5
Views: 349

Re: Portfoliovisualizer but with daily data?

If you have any facility with google sheets you can get tables of daily returns. You would have to do the calculations yourself though.
by Hydromod
Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4906
Views: 423909

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Crushtheturtle wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:15 pm
Maybe it's just because I'm paying close attention, but I'm noticing that UPRO is doing a miserable job today delivering 3x the price movement of SPY.

Hasn't come close at all.
Might this be because it is tracking daily movements, not hourly?
by Hydromod
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For 50-55 Year olds/ What Are you thinking?
Replies: 46
Views: 4646

Re: For 50-55 Year olds/ What Are you thinking?

I have about a ten-year horizon before target retirement. I reminded DW that all projections were that the market was going to be about flat for the next ten years anyway, so that we're better to take a haircut now, contribute at lower levels, and let the market take its time to get back. DW won't h...
by Hydromod
Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4906
Views: 423909

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I'm not usually into trading like that, it's just that the market is so cyclical right now. It's like boats rocking in a chop, and the morning is often quite different from the afternoon and from the next day (and the M1 window is in prime overreaction mode). So it seems to me that in order to reba...
by Hydromod
Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4906
Views: 423909

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

The whole point of M1 Finance's restricted trading window is to discourage day trading and market timing. If you're upset that it prevents you from doing so, recognize that this is by design. Buy in, rebalance quarterly, and stay the course. M1 makes this easier than any other broker. Of course. Un...
by Hydromod
Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4906
Views: 423909

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

The whole point of M1 Finance's restricted trading window is to discourage day trading and market timing. If you're upset that it prevents you from doing so, recognize that this is by design. Buy in, rebalance quarterly, and stay the course. M1 makes this easier than any other broker. Of course. Un...
by Hydromod
Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4906
Views: 423909

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Yesterday I would very much have liked to have had the option to trade at the end of the day that M1 doesn't offer. I could see the familiar two-day pattern coming from a mile away, with the big increase in TMF/UPRO spread at close Monday followed by big decrease in spread Tuesday at close today. I ...
by Hydromod
Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4906
Views: 423909

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I'm still monitoring a suite of 60 risk parity indicators for UPRO/TMF and TQQQ/TMF. These are combinations of Parity with volatility, variance, downward-only volatility, downward-only variance, and targeted volatility (25%) 12-, 8-, and 4-week lookback Symmetric or downward-only volatility/variance...
by Hydromod
Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4906
Views: 423909

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I've been trying to figure out the mechanics of how to rebalance effectively constrained to M1 morning trades. I think I see that the market tends to over-react during the morning window during periods of volatility. For example, TMF was up 26% around the time of the window on Monday and it ended at...
by Hydromod
Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who do you follow for market insights ?
Replies: 49
Views: 2598

Re: Who do you follow for market insights ?

HEDGEFUNDIE and willthrill... 305pelusa and Uncorrelated...
and all the other wild-eyed crazies
by Hydromod
Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4906
Views: 423909

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Perfect - I admittedly got stuck trying to find something suitable for "Money Market" to include in the pie, but settled on MINT which should be good enough. Started 75 MINT - 16 TMF - 9 UPRO -> and plan to add 25% every 2 weeks. Not enough money to likely warrant this level of wrangling, but might...
by Hydromod
Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4906
Views: 423909

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Roth IRA just finished transferring from Vanguard to M1 - was planning on deploying this strategy once it got there - it seems like fine timing, but if I’m crazy let me know :) Couple thoughts: 1. DCA into this given the volatility 2. Consider setting the ratio for whatever version of this you are ...
by Hydromod
Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4906
Views: 423909

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

So what was your conclusion on the best performing strategy, allocation, and rebalancing frequency after all these experiments? I was happy with a decision to quickly de-risk from TQQQ to TMF as the market started dropping. I had been running high on TQQQ so I was poised for this for a while. I mus...
by Hydromod
Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4906
Views: 423909

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I had been dancing around temporarily hedging a TQQQ/TMF portfolio with a small amount of DRIP and DGAZ for the last month before ending up on a reset to just TQQQ/TMF with a low TQQQ weight. To ponder consequences from my decisions I'm tracking what the results would have been if I'd stayed put aft...
by Hydromod
Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4906
Views: 423909

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

chrisdds98 wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:14 pm
this strategy is a bit frustrating in a taxable account! My plan has been to avoid STCG so I can only rebalance with new funds for the next several months
Last in first out.
by Hydromod
Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4906
Views: 423909

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

These last weeks have been a good test for risk tolerance. I've got small two versions of this going, (i) one "low-volatility" mix of nominally 50% UPRO+TMF/50% BND with monthly additions using M1 to rebalance and (ii) one tactical adaptive mix of TQQQ/TMF + a small amount of trending equity. I'm ha...
by Hydromod
Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4906
Views: 423909

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Just want to be extra sure, as there has been plenty of volatility lately: I started at ~55-45 UPRO-TMF allocation. I am now at 35-65 (lol @TMF up 15% today), 1.5 months in, planning to re-balance quarterly. This strategy (at least as it was backtested) does not include any bands to force early re-...
by Hydromod
Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121852

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

12 month moving average US unemployment is 3.60%, February is 3.5%. https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea03.htm Hypothetically very nasty things could happen in the March stock market, even assuming the UER moving average doesn't remain positive next month. This vindicates my approach of only using...
by Hydromod
Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance and asset allocation with mathematics
Replies: 99
Views: 5892

Re: Risk tolerance and asset allocation with mathematics

Very nice. I like a clean presentation like this. One question. You said you were more risk adverse and less likely to sell than the typical investor, with an implied weight between 65 and 100 percent equities. I presume that this is consistent with an early investor? It seems like late investors ar...
by Hydromod
Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4906
Views: 423909

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Thanks for the info! Was there a periodic rebalance combined with a band that performed well enough to merit consideration against just periodic or just bands? I didn't do that particular test. My suspicion is that once you move beyond a few days between rebalances, you're getting into the realm wh...
by Hydromod
Wed Mar 04, 2020 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4906
Views: 423909

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Thanks for the info! Was there a periodic rebalance combined with a band that performed well enough to merit consideration against just periodic or just bands? I didn't do that particular test. My suspicion is that once you move beyond a few days between rebalances, you're getting into the realm wh...
by Hydromod
Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4906
Views: 423909

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Hydromod, when you ran your series of tests on optimal rebalancing, did you test for including rebalance bands along with periodic rebalancing? My allocation is now 15% off from 55/45 and I'm wondering if there's a point at which an early rebalance would be expected to provide a benefit. I'm otherw...
by Hydromod
Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4906
Views: 423909

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I did the TMV switch test a while back. It worked out great. The problem is knowing a priori whether to use TMF or TMV.
by Hydromod
Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121852

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

First of all, thank you to those who have expressed appreciation for my posts in this thread. They are deeply appreciated. I anticipated a backlash as a response to my recent move, but this is just too much. Before my recent 'pause' to my trend following strategy, I seriously considered abandoning ...
by Hydromod
Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4906
Views: 423909

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I made up a little Google sheet that calculates the adaptive allocation weights for various lookback periods and risk parity models (including the breaking-the-market Kelly criterion). Leaving out the Kelly criterion, I have 60 combinations of lookback period (3: 20, 40, 60 days), risk parity model ...
by Hydromod
Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121852

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

With the benefit of an additional data point, I’m thinking that perhaps the condition of near-zero gradient on the moving average of the UER would be a good signal to drop back the risk budget assigned to equities to a neutral level from a risk-on level. Now that market responses are accelerating an...
by Hydromod
Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4906
Views: 423909

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I think there are computers at work. You do realize the chart is in descending order and not date order right? I was going to say computers too. Computer period roughly starting mid 80s and accelerating? 8 of top 10 fastest since 1985, 11 of 15 fastest. 4 of top 5 fastest in last 25 years.
by Hydromod
Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4906
Views: 423909

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I decided to rebalance. We'll see if I was right. Does the OP strategy prescribes ONLY quarterly rebalance or is there an exception in-between if band threshold breaches? For example, my TMF is now 54% and UPRO is 45% and my next quarterly rebalance is not due until 5/13. NOT rebalancing except at ...
by Hydromod
Mon Feb 24, 2020 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where's the risk in TIAA Traditional?
Replies: 20
Views: 2485

Re: Where's the risk in TIAA Traditional?

Now here's a data point. On Friday I got several spurious emails from TIAA, including acknowledgement of beneficiary change I did some months ago and EFT that occurred at least 3 weeks ago. My first thought was phishing, though odd that there were so many. Could not reach TIAA by phone. When I logg...
by Hydromod
Sun Feb 23, 2020 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4906
Views: 423909

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

So ideally I should convert traditional Ira to Roth. Then implement. That's exactly what I did. And I'm very happy to have done so. This line of discussion seems to imply that there is something specifically about this strategy that advantages a roth over a traditional ira? That decision should be ...
by Hydromod
Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4906
Views: 423909

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

BV3273 wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 12:56 pm
So ideally I should convert traditional Ira to Roth. Then implement.
That's exactly what I did. And I'm very happy to have done so.
by Hydromod
Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fascinating take on a rebalanced Permanent Portfolio - BreakingTheMarket.com
Replies: 124
Views: 11575

Re: Fascinating take on a rebalanced Permanent Portfolio - BreakingTheMarket.com

Do you mean https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2927791? I thought that was a bad paper, honestly. With Shannon's demon, they forget to mention that the buy and hold investor has an higher average balance than an optimal rebalancing agent after N trials. With Pandorro's paradox they...
by Hydromod
Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4906
Views: 423909

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

JBTX wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 12:09 am
I just thought I'd leave these here: :wink:
I believe that this information was hashed out ad nauseum in the first thread. But it’s good that you are doing your due diligence on backtesting to become aware of potential pitfalls!
by Hydromod
Sat Feb 22, 2020 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fascinating take on a rebalanced Permanent Portfolio - BreakingTheMarket.com
Replies: 124
Views: 11575

Re: Fascinating take on a rebalanced Permanent Portfolio - BreakingTheMarket.com

Sometimes I come across something that really doesn't make any sense. This is one of those cases. In order to time the markets, there must be some elements that are predictable, meaning that the probability distribution of future returns on time A differs from time B. If returns are i.i.d., the bes...