Search found 818 matches

by empb
Sat Apr 02, 2022 2:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous
Replies: 167
Views: 48221

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Painful. The strategy seems to be: "we hope you start with so much money that we can subject you the whipsaw and you still don't run out!".
by empb
Tue Jul 06, 2021 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Un-Boglehead Post [Speculation with a small investment]
Replies: 23
Views: 1484

Re: An Un-Boglehead Post

HFEA or, more likely, some variation thereof.
by empb
Tue Jul 06, 2021 11:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can this couple FIRE?
Replies: 41
Views: 6501

Re: Can this couple FIRE?

As others have said...yes you can retire. But the is what will you do on Tuesdays at 10am when all your friends are still working the 9-5 grind? It's amazing how work has so thoroughly abused our minds that this question continues to get posed. It's nearly Stockholm Syndrome. Indeed. Also, it's not like it's illegal to have friends that are older. +100 My wife and I are 42 and quite good friends with two couples who are our parents' ages. One of the couples has a dozen grandkids, and the other had no children. They are great fun, provide a different perspective on life, and will be ready to hang out should we ever retire. I work irregular hours and often have weekdays off. Believe it or not, lots of people are milling about doing different...
by empb
Tue Jul 06, 2021 11:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can this couple FIRE?
Replies: 41
Views: 6501

Re: Can this couple FIRE?

Finances have been spoken to already. I find it more interesting that one entity in this endeavor has a small fraction of the net worth and that the comment was made that you may marry for inheritance reasons. If one or both parties are not particular interest in marriage its odds of ending prematurely are high and the guy needs to protect assets. At the risk of sounding naive... Partner is fully-supportive of a pre-nup. We've been together almost 10 years and she's never shown any real interest in my/our wealth. Bills are still split 50/50, she's not materialistic, not ostentatious, uninterested in status. In the event we both stop working, she deserves to be protected if her career is not salvageable (it won't be). She can have the flat ...
by empb
Tue Jul 06, 2021 11:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can this couple FIRE?
Replies: 41
Views: 6501

Re: Can this couple FIRE?

Luckywon wrote: Mon Jul 05, 2021 11:41 pm
empb wrote: Mon Jul 05, 2021 7:24 am Him: 37; US/UK Dual Citizen
Her: 33; UK Citizen
Status: Will probably marry for inheritance tax reasons (romantic!)
You are probably aware but if you predecease your wife and she is not a U.S. citizen, assets you leave to her will not qualify for the spousal estate tax exemption. Given what your assets are now, your estate will most likely be above the individual estate tax exemption. Therefore, I assume the plan is for her to become a US/UK Dual Citizen?
Thanks for your reply. If I ever have this "problem" I'd hopefully donate aggressively while alive. My partner doesn't need to be left $11m+ and I have no intention of building dynastic wealth.
by empb
Tue Jul 06, 2021 11:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can this couple FIRE?
Replies: 41
Views: 6501

Re: Can this couple FIRE?

As others have said...yes you can retire. But the is what will you do on Tuesdays at 10am when all your friends are still working the 9-5 grind? I'm 47 and I sorta kinda retired last year. I still flip an occasional house and have rentals, but I don't work hard. It's been a challenge to figure out my "next chapter." Plus, my wife actually still works....which does add some friction. I found new hobbies. I grocery shop, I cook, I plan and travel a ton. You should consider this in your plans. What will be your next chapter. Very easy to have a romanticized notion of early retirement. It's unlikely I'd do it without my partner, unless the work became unbearable. Having said that, I'm a pretty good potterer and London is a great city...
by empb
Mon Jul 05, 2021 3:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can this couple FIRE?
Replies: 41
Views: 6501

Re: Can this couple FIRE?

Greentree wrote: Mon Jul 05, 2021 3:16 pm I have thought that it would be nice, when I'm ready to retire, to spend a year or two donating all salary (or a large chunk) to charity. I have no idea if I'll actually do it though. Of course since you are ready to retire, you could try it out for a few months now and see how you like it. If it doesn't give you a great feeling, retire. If you do like it, keep going. Then let us know what you found out:)
Yes, I haven't yet given away any significant amount and, having grown up not exactly well-off, it's not easy to put my money where my mouth is.

I'll be giving a small inheritance ($40k) from the recent passing of my parents in the near future.

How will that feel? Not a clue.
by empb
Mon Jul 05, 2021 12:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can this couple FIRE?
Replies: 41
Views: 6501

Re: Can this couple FIRE?

Tingting1013 wrote: Mon Jul 05, 2021 12:00 pm How about this one: continuing to work inside the capitalist system perpetuates the conditions that led to those charity recipients’ abject poverty in the first place. For every 100 lives you “save”, the company and industry and capitalist system you work for is indirectly killing 1000 more.

Like I said, if you take this stuff seriously, you should take some time to study up.
Nope, didn't work. :D But I appreciate your overarching point and agree entirely.
by empb
Mon Jul 05, 2021 11:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can this couple FIRE?
Replies: 41
Views: 6501

Re: Can this couple FIRE?

I'm finding walking away from a high-paying job to be almost impossible. It feels ridiculously selfish when I could continue working to donate the proceeds; BH must be full of people who've grappled with the same. Any particular insights into that would be appreciated! That's a normal mindset for people in your position coming to terms with their career, wealth, and purpose. It's the stage of golden handcuffs after the part where you figure out you already have enough but before the part where you realize that being a simple money spigot for others also isn't the best use of your talents. Don't worry -- you'll eventually grow out of it. ;) There's more to life than cash flow. If your time is that valuable to a company with lots of money, i...
by empb
Mon Jul 05, 2021 10:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can this couple FIRE?
Replies: 41
Views: 6501

Re: Can this couple FIRE?

I'm finding walking away from a high-paying job to be almost impossible. It feels ridiculously selfish when I could continue working to donate the proceeds; BH must be full of people who've grappled with the same. Any particular insights into that would be appreciated! That's a normal mindset for people in your position coming to terms with their career, wealth, and purpose. It's the stage of golden handcuffs after the part where you figure out you already have enough but before the part where you realize that being a simple money spigot for others also isn't the best use of your talents. Don't worry -- you'll eventually grow out of it. ;) There's more to life than cash flow. If your time is that valuable to a company with lots of money, i...
by empb
Mon Jul 05, 2021 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can this couple FIRE?
Replies: 41
Views: 6501

Re: Can this couple FIRE?

Watty wrote: Mon Jul 05, 2021 10:30 am
empb wrote: Mon Jul 05, 2021 10:24 am It's a far point regarding Social Security; not sure where I stand, almost certainly less than 10 years but can't see getting over that hurdle currently living in UK.
Be sure to put it on your list of things to eventually look into. There might be something in the tax treaties that might still let you get some.
Based on this, it appears whatever meager amounts I paid in to US Social Security are lost. But you're right, well worth a further dig.

https://www.ssa.gov/pubs/EN-05-10199.pdf
by empb
Mon Jul 05, 2021 10:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can this couple FIRE?
Replies: 41
Views: 6501

Re: Can this couple FIRE?

Tingting1013 wrote: Mon Jul 05, 2021 10:06 am How does the U.K. pension work?
Statutorily allowed to withdraw no earlier than 55.
by empb
Mon Jul 05, 2021 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can this couple FIRE?
Replies: 41
Views: 6501

Re: Can this couple FIRE?

Do your $100K expenses include income taxes? If not then you will need more income than that to have $100K left to spend after paying income taxes. I would assume that the $100K expense figure also includes your mortgage payment. I would also look at your expenses without the mortgage since you could pay it off at any time. There are all sorts of opinions about if you should pay a mortgage off or not but if you do retire I would likely pay it off. You have a US IRA so you have likely also paid into Social Security so you also need to dig into that to find out how much Social Security you will get since the tax treaties between the US and the UK may complicate this. Normally you need to work and pay into Social Security for 10 years(technic...
by empb
Mon Jul 05, 2021 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can this couple FIRE?
Replies: 41
Views: 6501

Re: Can this couple FIRE?

anon_investor wrote: Mon Jul 05, 2021 9:24 am Any potential for kids? I have a good HS buddy who was on the FIRE path (retire before 40) with his live in gf and they ended unexpectedly having their first kid in their mid-30s, now FIRE is on hold (until at least 50) with another kid on the way. Kids can change everything.
It's a good question.

Never say never...but neither of us particularly inclined. We just got a cat who seems to have scratched that itch (along with everything else in the house).

If we did have a kid(s), I think I'd be more inclined to pull the plug, not less, even if it meant cutting costs.
by empb
Mon Jul 05, 2021 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can this couple FIRE?
Replies: 41
Views: 6501

Re: Can this couple FIRE?

countmein wrote: Mon Jul 05, 2021 7:37 am Congrats, you are rich and young. Of course you can retire. Personally, I'd be more comfortable with a 2% SWR (80k spending) but the consensus here will be that your 2.5 SWR is granted "approval".
To be honest, I don't feel all that young (no shortage of people who don't see 55) or all that rich (our net worth was <$1.5m on the March 2020 lows; nowhere near FIRE territory).

I'm finding walking away from a high-paying job to be almost impossible. It feels ridiculously selfish when I could continue working to donate the proceeds; BH must be full of people who've grappled with the same. Any particular insights into that would be appreciated!
by empb
Mon Jul 05, 2021 7:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can this couple FIRE?
Replies: 41
Views: 6501

Can this couple FIRE?

Focusing only on the financials; would anyone have qualms with this London-based couple retiring? Portfolio is almost 100% equities; with little risk aversion.

Code: Select all

Vitals:
Him: 37; US/UK Dual Citizen
Her: 33; UK Citizen
Status: Will probably marry for inheritance tax reasons (romantic!)
Kids: Nope and unlikely but probably swingable
Expenses: Approx. $100k (£3k x 2 per month); admit it seems high but there is room to maneuver.

Portfolio:
His Taxable (USA) = $2,950k
His Traditional IRA (USA) = $142k
His Roth IRA (USA) = $53k
His Pension (UK) = $260k

Her Taxable (UK) = $263k
Her Pension (UK) = $207k

Their Home Equity (UK) = $215k   (mortgage of £420k)

TOTAL = approx. $4.1m
by empb
Sat Jun 19, 2021 8:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Allocations for 23 year old
Replies: 25
Views: 2286

Re: Allocations for 23 year old

Equal parts AVUV, AVDV, VWO.
by empb
Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio
Replies: 282
Views: 27756

Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

These threads... What can you tell people that believe the US is both lower risk and will generate higher returns?
by empb
Mon Jun 14, 2021 4:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fixed income strategy
Replies: 14
Views: 2092

Re: Fixed income strategy

With zero need for withdrawals, the question should be why any fixed income at all.
by empb
Mon May 31, 2021 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many here follow Bogle's "no international" theory?
Replies: 757
Views: 59493

Re: How many here follow Bogle's "no international" theory?

BabaWawa wrote: Mon May 31, 2021 3:34 pm
abuss368 wrote: Thu Aug 20, 2015 11:58 pm We allocate 40% of equity.
Yes, this is an old thread, but kind of interesting to see that "stay the course" is just a suggestion.
The longer I'm on this board, the clearer it becomes just how difficult it is to stay the course. Unfortunately, "simplicity" often gets used to justify capitulation.
by empb
Sat May 29, 2021 6:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you putting in your Roth IRA?
Replies: 138
Views: 27294

Re: What are you putting in your Roth IRA?

50% SPXL
50% TMF
by empb
Sat May 15, 2021 1:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kyle Weaver superstar fund manager 79% return
Replies: 48
Views: 5250

Re: Kyle Weaver superstar fund manager 79% return

Boglekid wrote: Sat May 15, 2021 1:06 am The key is finding the 20% of active managed funds or active managed ETFs that out perform passive indexed funds/ETFs!

Now what are they?
Is this a serious question?
by empb
Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Very heavy SCV tilt: when to add "pure" beta exposure (if at all)?
Replies: 11
Views: 1221

Re: Very heavy SCV tilt: when to add "pure" beta exposure (if at all)?

As long as you're persuaded that factors are real and largely independent of each other, I don't know why you would want to specifically 'overweight' one factor over another (i.e., add more beta). SCV still has a lot of beta exposure. Agree; but the impetus is less "I don't have enough Beta" and more "I haven't seen anyone else tilting like this". Search for "Larry Portfolio" on this forum and you will see a tilt like this. To be fair, that portfolio falls into the "low-volatility" category and, as such, is heavily weighted towards bonds to better offset the volatility of SCV (and some other assets that have been added over the years as it evolved). Cheers. Thanks, aware of the Larry portfolio but ca...
by empb
Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Very heavy SCV tilt: when to add "pure" beta exposure (if at all)?
Replies: 11
Views: 1221

Re: Very heavy SCV tilt: when to add "pure" beta exposure (if at all)?

vineviz wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:21 am
empb wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:14 am
Essentially the question is: is it totally reckless to continue as-is? Or would it be prudent to "backfill" with VTI?
No and no.

Diversification is arguably more important for decumulators, not less. So your allocation is not “reckless “.

And if you want to “backfill”, the cheap beta fund should include international stocks anyway. So not VTI.
Thanks for reply. Your own portfolio (such as it's described here) has a discrete "core" allocation to S&P 500. Is that for behavioural reasons (wife etc)? Or due to 401k limitations?
by empb
Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Very heavy SCV tilt: when to add "pure" beta exposure (if at all)?
Replies: 11
Views: 1221

Re: Very heavy SCV tilt: when to add "pure" beta exposure (if at all)?

willthrill81 wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:16 am As long as you're persuaded that factors are real and largely independent of each other, I don't know why you would want to specifically 'overweight' one factor over another (i.e., add more beta). SCV still has a lot of beta exposure.
Agree; but the impetus is less "I don't have enough Beta" and more "I haven't seen anyone else tilting like this".
by empb
Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Very heavy SCV tilt: when to add "pure" beta exposure (if at all)?
Replies: 11
Views: 1221

Very heavy SCV tilt: when to add "pure" beta exposure (if at all)?

Have been following the forum for 13+ years, largely since I started working. Since that time, I have been overwhelmingly tilted to small-value stocks; perhaps more than any poster I can recall. As net worth has increased over the last few years, this tilt seems extreme even amongst factor-heads and I'm perhaps in need of an intervention! My IPS would dictate: 50% US small-cap value / 25% ex-US small / 25% cap-weighted emerging markets with eventual slope towards 10% long-term government bonds . To date, no issues sticking with this portfolio and no reason to think that will change but it was written at a very different stage of my life. Essentially the question is: is it totally reckless to continue as-is? Or would it be prudent to "b...
by empb
Mon Jan 18, 2021 3:24 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: US expat in UK looking for UK reporting fund investment advice
Replies: 22
Views: 3471

Re: US expat in UK looking for UK reporting fund investment advice

Vineviz has a post on a five-fund model portfolio. All of them are HMRC Reporting Funds: VTI, VIOV, VSS, VWO, EDV.

Buy some combo of those and whatever crappy total market fund you can get in your pension.
by empb
Sat Jan 16, 2021 2:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5577
Views: 619180

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

About 8% of net worth in a UK pension holding VT lookalikes plus a similar amount in the HFEA, otherwise I'm maximally tilted and have been for 12 years.

50% VBR/VIOV
30% VSS
20% VWO

Up until recently I was holding AVDV, PDN, DLS, DGS etc but was sat on a capital gains landmine so had to switch entirely into HMRC Reporting funds.

EM overweight due to correlations and my partner not holding any.
by empb
Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bonds are too risky
Replies: 27
Views: 3181

Re: Why bonds are too risky

And what happens if you hold the bond to maturity?

Happily holding a little dash of EDV.
by empb
Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold price gap between London and NY+Toronto: why?
Replies: 12
Views: 1609

Re: Gold price gap between London and NY+Toronto: why?

Where are you looking? BullionVault? This is likely just a liquidity issue resulting in wider spreads.
by empb
Fri Aug 28, 2020 5:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Behavioral Reasons to Avoid SCV/Factor Strategies
Replies: 148
Views: 11226

Re: Behavioral Reasons to Avoid SCV/Factor Strategies

sean.mcgrath wrote: Thu Aug 27, 2020 1:03 pm
empb wrote: Tue Aug 18, 2020 12:31 pm Yes, I rebalance with new contributions, without fail, to as close to my target allocation as I can get.

http://optimalrebalancing.tk/?i=1
I thought the idea of the Excellent Adventure was to re-balance the two, but not vis-a-vis the entire portfolio?
Correct. EA is left alone, basically allocated all of my meager tax advantaged space to it and will let it ride. The question I answered above was whether I regularly rebalance into SV.
by empb
Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Behavioral Reasons to Avoid SCV/Factor Strategies
Replies: 148
Views: 11226

Re: Behavioral Reasons to Avoid SCV/Factor Strategies

MotoTrojan wrote: Wed Aug 19, 2020 6:53 pm Am I just a lunatic with a fully-tilted portfolio :mrgreen: !? Seeing all these "should I add growth" threads makes me feel more and more conviction.

When I have a $2M portfolio perhaps I'll lever back a bit to a modest 20-35% tilt, but right now give me all the risk I can get.
Lunatic? Not in my view. My portfolio is roughly $2M, but that does not make mega-cap growth anymore attractive.

At about 75% of the way to my goal (of $4M), I've started adding EDV (would go longer if it was available) at an increasing rate. If the aim is to increase diversification/reduce volatility, use an asset that's actually going to do it, don't just change the flavour of your equity portfolio.
by empb
Tue Aug 18, 2020 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Behavioral Reasons to Avoid SCV/Factor Strategies
Replies: 148
Views: 11226

Re: Behavioral Reasons to Avoid SCV/Factor Strategies

Yes, I rebalance with new contributions, without fail, to as close to my target allocation as I can get.

http://optimalrebalancing.tk/?i=1
by empb
Tue Aug 18, 2020 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Behavioral Reasons to Avoid SCV/Factor Strategies
Replies: 148
Views: 11226

Re: Behavioral Reasons to Avoid SCV/Factor Strategies

The risk showed up and you bailed. You're not the first and won't be the last. We're all human, I wouldn't spend much time thinking about it. Twelve years in, I have 100% of my net worth allocated as below. Admittedly, there is a little voice saying maybe I've "built" my SV portfolio and could now justify allocating new contributions elsewhere (and at the worst possible time, funny that...), but I'm not listening to it. There has to be a worse result than experiencing below average returns during accumulation. If ever expected returns ever do show up, I'm that much better positioned. It's a very interesting time to be reading the forums: so much capitulation... 10% market (no choice) 75% global small-value (50/37.5/12.5 us/eafe/em...
by empb
Tue Aug 11, 2020 11:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Google Play Music sunsetting to YouTube Music
Replies: 66
Views: 5816

Re: Google Play Music sunsetting to YouTube Music

I have clicked the Transfer button but it's spinning on the Uploads and Purchases step for hours....
by empb
Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much tilting to SCV (rule of thumb)?
Replies: 95
Views: 10911

Re: How much tilting to SCV (rule of thumb)?

No right answer in my view.

Perhaps: 1) start with your stock/bond split (assuming a 50% equities haircut) 2) determine the expected returns you need including your planned career length and savings rate 3) figure out the tilt that gets you that expected return (if any) and 4) hope you get compensated for the risk you've taken.

It is likely one of your four answers will be tough to swallow but what's the alternative? Save more, work longer? All a balancing act.

I suspect I'm amongst the heaviest tilters on BH:

Code: Select all

10% "market" (due to plan constraints)
10% Excellent Adventure
80% SCV (IJS, VBR, PDN, DLS, DGS)
0% bonds
No problems sticking with it despite 10 years of <5% XIRR but it's certainly not for everyone.
by empb
Fri Jun 12, 2020 4:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5577
Views: 619180

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

A guy on Twitter, Eric Nelson, just posted the following regarding SCV: % annualized over/underperformance for DFA US Small Value Index vs. CRSP 1-10 Total Mkt Index: 1975-83: +19.2% 1984-90: -6.3% 1991-94: +13.3% 1995-99: -9.0% 2000-06: +19.7% 2007-08: -7.1% 2009-13: +6.1% 2014-20: -9.0% A short-term slump is a bad time to bail on small cap value DFA SCV Fund did not exist before 1994, how did anyone come up with numbers from 1975? Guys like this Eric Nelson are the reason FA's get a bad rap, in their overzealous interest to promote DFA/SCV, they cook up all sort of dubious data. Note: I actually know what he did there, it's a hypothetical backtest using an index that didn't exist. Eric Nelson is a (formerly) very prolific poster on BH un...
by empb
Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are you listening to now
Replies: 5802
Views: 575004

Re: What are you listening to now

Jeff Beck Appearing Live this Week at Ronnie Scott's If there is any doubt that Beck is the greatest living Rock guitarist, this live performance recorded and videoed back in 2008 will erase it. I was never a fan of Beck until I stumbled across it on late night TV a few years ago. Since then, I've attended a few live performances and, incredibly, he keeps getting better at 70+ years of age. Here is a youtube link to one of the numbers called "Big Block" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdX6ly6ftUM BTW, his backup band on this video is top notch. Tal Wilkenfeld on Bass, Jason Rebello, Keyboards and the amazing Vinnie Colaiuta on Drums. Vinnie is just incredible in this. It's silly to rank musicians, but, gun to my head, Vinnie is e...
by empb
Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Physical silver price decoupled from spot price
Replies: 32
Views: 2958

Re: Physical silver price decoupled from spot price

I decided to test the theory that the price for Silver American Eagles is so high because there is a shortage and a huge demand to buy them. The big online dealer is now selling them for $31.24 for 1-19, $30.22 for 20-99 and $29.24 for 100+. Now I bought a couple of tubes back in 2018 for $18-$19 per ounce. If there is such a huge demand for them at $30, surely they will buy them from me for $25. Or at least $20. In any case, I'll sell them for no less than $20, but they will still make $10 per ounce which is way better than the usual premium of $2.50 or $3.00. If there is a shortage, they must be scrambling to get them and will offer me a pretty good price. So I called them up and got a bid. The spot price of Silver when I called was $14....
by empb
Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Physical silver price decoupled from spot price
Replies: 32
Views: 2958

Re: Physical silver price decoupled from spot price

TheLaughingCow wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:27 pm
noraz123 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:25 pm
SemiRetire wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:01 pm Spot silver is about 12 ounce

Silver coins about 22-24 ounce

Quite the decoupling between “paper” silver and physical silver.
Is there an arbitrage opportunity here? Not sure how one would short silver coins.
One could purchase a silvers future, take delivery, and then sell the silver. The issue would be breaking 5x1000oz bars into 1, 10, and 100oz chunks and then selling them.

I would guess some of the mints are making an absolute killing right now.
Unfortunately, this doesn't work either. The EFP (the difference between spot and futures) is dislocated for the same reason: logistics networks and refiners have collapsed. Futures are also trading at a premium to spot for this reason.
by empb
Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Physical silver price decoupled from spot price
Replies: 32
Views: 2958

Re: Physical silver price decoupled from spot price

This is not really a function of the spot price; all large dealers (like APMEX) will be hedged. A local coin shop may not be, but certainly the large online retailers are. Simply, many of the Mints have stopped/drastically reduced production and/or cannot source feed material. There are then serious logistical challenges in moving the products to dealers. These products move on the same now-cancelled passenger flights you take yourself. COVID has created a huge physical shortage and premiums go up. Not much more to it than that. Thanks for the info. I don't quite understand. Are you agreeing with greyfox that "many online dealers are pretending that they are sold out" or not? I am disagreeing. In the overwhelming majority of case...
by empb
Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Physical silver price decoupled from spot price
Replies: 32
Views: 2958

Re: Physical silver price decoupled from spot price

This is not really a function of the spot price; all large dealers (like APMEX) will be hedged. A local coin shop may not be, but certainly the large online retailers are.

Simply, many of the Mints have stopped/drastically reduced production and/or cannot source feed material. There are then serious logistical challenges in moving the products to dealers. These products move on the same now-cancelled passenger flights you take yourself.

COVID has created a huge physical shortage and premiums go up. Not much more to it than that.
by empb
Sun Mar 08, 2020 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Glide path based on $ not time
Replies: 26
Views: 2717

Re: Glide path based on $ not time

Well, it certainly counts for something, and you could sell it (whether you plan to or not).

In my view, it is bond-like and, where I live, reasonably stable (though illiquid): it pays me imputed rent.
by empb
Sun Mar 08, 2020 4:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Glide path based on $ not time
Replies: 26
Views: 2717

Re: Glide path based on $ not time

Yes, age has never seemed a relevant metric to me. Experiencing unexpectedly good portfolio performance during your investing lifetime is no different to any other windfall. My approach: 1) divide trailing 3 years living expenses by 3%. This is my (moving) target net worth . 2) what is my minimum allocation to "safe assets"? 2) what is my maximum allocation to "safe assets"? That is, when I have reached my target net worth. 3) once I have reached 75% of target net worth, start adding safe assets using the Excel LOG function , slowly at first and then at an increasing rate as I move nearer target net worth. 4) the balance of the portfolio is allocated to "risk assets". The "risk asset", in my case, is ...
by empb
Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Progressive Glide Path
Replies: 11
Views: 2423

Re: The Progressive Glide Path

I found this a very interesting and useful post when it first appeared. When I started reading BH around 2008, SmallHi (https://twitter.com/servowealth?lang=en) + Robert T + this thread laid out strategies that I've managed to stick with since. Bogleheads that have enjoyed the last few years of excellent equity returns should consider assessing their current situation versus their target net worth (do you have a number?), not their age or an arbitrary "typical" working career (unless, of course, you enjoy your job). My approach: 1) divide my last 3 years expenses (trailing) by 3.5%. This is my (moving) target net worth. 2) what is my minimum allocation to "safe assets"? 2) what is my maximum allocation to "safe asse...
by empb
Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: My favorite Boglehead posters
Replies: 192
Views: 66272

Re: My favorite Boglehead posters

wayfarer wrote: Sat Dec 29, 2018 7:27 am Most of the above mentioned but specifically one not:
RobertT
Infrequent poster but each post is so discerning and forces me to think...

Thanks to all who freely share their knowledge and their time.
Indeed. I don't even lurk much anymore (there really isn't much to this stuff) but RobertT is absolute top of my list. If a thread pops up I think he'd have found worth commenting on, I scroll straight down until my eye catches the orange avatar.

Newer members should read everything he (and SmallHi) have written.

I've always liked dbr and, of course, Larry Swedroe, too.

Edited to add: very few posts result in an IPS change but longinvest/Siamond/Kevin's in the "Adaptive Bands" thread did so.
by empb
Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to Get Money Out of One's Investments for a Early Retiree
Replies: 24
Views: 2803

Re: How to Get Money Out of One's Investments for a Early Retiree

dbr wrote: Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:45 pm This whole discussion can be conducted in retrospect by going back and reading any of many discussions of dividends that have been had here. If people want to start up again, they are certainly welcome to do so, of course. I would not presume to play the role of a moderator, but I doubt I will comment further.
Yes, haven't been reading much here lately and have just seen the latest thread. Sorry to hijack. Like the DCA 'debate', very interesting if not maddening!
by empb
Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to Get Money Out of One's Investments for a Early Retiree
Replies: 24
Views: 2803

Re: How to Get Money Out of One's Investments for a Early Retiree

"Either way, you have $50,000 that you can use for spending, but which of these is best depends on your other income." Yes, but then you have less dividend income going forward and since those shares are gone, you don't get any future capital appreciation on them. The reason every company in the DJIA and over 80% of the companies in the S&P 500 pay dividends is that dividends are considered by a huge majority of investors to be the superior way to withdraw money from equity investments. Whether you take $50,000 from savings via dividends or from share sales, you are reducing your savings by exactly the same amount, compared to what you would have if you didn't take the money from savings. The only difference is tax efficiency...
by empb
Sun Dec 11, 2016 5:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to start a hedge fund
Replies: 23
Views: 3211

Re: How to start a hedge fund

:shock:

At the risk of sounding harsh... I've been reading posts on this forum for the better part of 8 years and this might be the most naive of them all.
by empb
Mon Nov 14, 2016 6:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to give a young traveller in France some "walking-around money?"
Replies: 25
Views: 4665

Re: How to give a young traveller in France some "walking-around money?"

I've started using a new app/service called Revolut. Highly highly recommend it. https://revolut.com/

If you both have accounts, you can send her the funds, then she can swap for EUR at the Interbank rate via the app. They'll even send her a debit card if she asks for one. I believe there are some additional costs if you top-up using USD (as against EUR or GBP) but they probably pale in comparison to your typical 'high street' exchange rate.