Search found 21 matches

by drock
Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5760
Views: 519772

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I'm wondering what folks are thinking in terms of the ability for TMF or EDV to continue to be a ballast to UPRO if rates in the U.S. are approaching 0 or even go negative. At that point, the outlook for bonds to provide positive future returns is greatly diminished.
by drock
Fri Dec 20, 2019 6:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5760
Views: 519772

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

So if diversification is a free lunch, and life-cycle investing style leverage is a free lunch would combining the two be a REALLY free lunch? Why not use a diverse set of things like buy futures on bonds, s&p index, nasdaq100, r2k, gold, sell 4-7 month out vix contracts, etc in combination? For ext...
by drock
Sat Nov 30, 2019 1:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5760
Views: 519772

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

When SP500 is above its 175 day MA.....100% TQQQ. When it's below it move back to VTI. I setup an account at a different broker specifically for this so not tempted/easy for me to commingle with the rest of my world. Do you use anything to avoid whipsaws or volatility around the MA like only checki...
by drock
Fri Nov 22, 2019 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5760
Views: 519772

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Does anyone know why both SPY and TLT / UPRO & TMF went down together back in 2018? I know it doesn't happen often but I am just trying to understand why this has occurred in the past and what may cause it again. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=2018...
by drock
Fri Nov 22, 2019 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5760
Views: 519772

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Hi all, really long time lurker, first time poster. I have been powering through this and the prior thread, and it seems solid. The only thing (to my mind) that could be discussed in a little more depth came about 8 months ago: Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x le...
by drock
Thu Nov 21, 2019 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5760
Views: 519772

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Hi all, really long time lurker, first time poster. I have been powering through this and the prior thread, and it seems solid. The only thing (to my mind) that could be discussed in a little more depth came about 8 months ago: Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x le...
by drock
Mon Oct 28, 2019 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5760
Views: 519772

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Hi investors, Novice/lurker here, first time poster. Thank you HedgeFundie and predecessors for this excellent, simple-to-understand heuristic. Great board here with excellent contributors. I've been experimenting with HF's original strategy since late July, initially purchased UPRO at ~56 and adde...
by drock
Fri Oct 11, 2019 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5760
Views: 519772

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

So if I'm calculating things correctly and you were looking to leverage $120k portfolio value 3x with your risk being about 50/50 s&p 500 and treasuries then you would buy: 1 mini S&P with a value of around 150k and 2 micros with a value of 15k x2 for a total of 180k exposure to S&P 1 ultra 30 year...
by drock
Fri Oct 11, 2019 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5760
Views: 519772

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

So if I'm calculating things correctly and you were looking to leverage $120k portfolio value 3x with your risk being about 50/50 s&p 500 and treasuries then you would buy: 1 mini S&P with a value of around 150k and 2 micros with a value of 15k x2 for a total of 180k exposure to S&P 1 ultra 30 year ...
by drock
Tue Oct 08, 2019 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5760
Views: 519772

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

This article mentions that a lot of times when the yield curve is inverted it is generally followed by the Fed lowering rates and thus not necessarily a bad time to be in leveraged 2 year futures.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/art ... sury-bonds
by drock
Mon Oct 07, 2019 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5760
Views: 519772

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Treasury futures are rolled quarterly. Why not do something like the following at each roll date: If yield curve is inverted such that the roll rate on 2y futures is negative then use the appropriate number of longer term futures (whose roll rates are not negative) for the duration desired. If yield...
by drock
Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5760
Views: 519772

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Awesome. I won't follow-up with any more questions to respect hedgefundie, but I would be curious to know why he isn't taking this approach himself as it should be a lower barrier to entry at $100K. The one thing that stood out was your mention of using bond futures; I was under the impression that...
by drock
Sun Aug 18, 2019 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5760
Views: 519772

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

A fund managed the same as PSLDX but with treasuries only (not active) would be my holy grail. I’ll still likely invest some funds into it next year but I think you can build a similar portfolio yourself with UPRO and EDV. Wouldn't this be fairly straightforward to implement yourself with futures? ...
by drock
Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5760
Views: 519772

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

A fund managed the same as PSLDX but with treasuries only (not active) would be my holy grail. I’ll still likely invest some funds into it next year but I think you can build a similar portfolio yourself with UPRO and EDV. Wouldn't this be fairly straightforward to implement yourself with futures? ...
by drock
Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5760
Views: 519772

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Lee_WSP wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:50 pm
I think we should be biased towards long rebalance Oreos due to the high transaction costs.
Not only do you have to buy the Oreos but you gotta get plenty of milk to go with them. I like to balance my oreos to about 8 per 1 glass of milk.
by drock
Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5760
Views: 519772

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

So I think my mods to the plan would be some sort of risk management and swapping from tmf to EDV or something when I feel like rates are going to start rising steadily. When you "feel" like rates are going to rise? And if you are so sure, why hold EDV and not TMV? Its gonna be pretty telegraphed w...
by drock
Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5760
Views: 519772

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

If I knew we were going into a recession I wouldn’t have any UPRO. Does this mean that you plan to implement some sort of risk management into this strategy? I know it isn't very bogle-like but I think it would be smart to include some sort of risk management in this scheme. I know this forum is no...
by drock
Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5760
Views: 519772

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

If I knew we were going into a recession I wouldn’t have any UPRO. Does this mean that you plan to implement some sort of risk management into this strategy? I know it isn't very bogle-like but I think it would be smart to include some sort of risk management in this scheme. I know this forum is no...
by drock
Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5760
Views: 519772

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

If we're worried about bond rates and duration and accepting that we're not going to make as much on your bond positions going forward, would revisiting using TYD over TMF have any merit?
by drock
Sun Mar 24, 2019 1:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 411459

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Strategies that are similar to this have been posted on other web sites several times. However, on those sites there is a market timing method added with the intention of reducing volatility of the leveraged equity portion of the strategy. I haven't read through all 28 pages of this thread, but has...
by drock
Sat Mar 23, 2019 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 411459

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Strategies that are similar to this have been posted on other web sites several times. However, on those sites there is a market timing method added with the intention of reducing volatility of the leveraged equity portion of the strategy. I haven't read through all 28 pages of this thread, but has ...