Search found 177 matches

by SteadyOne
Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Umbrella policy exclusion added about attorney fees
Replies: 1
Views: 235

Umbrella policy exclusion added about attorney fees

My umbrella policy from GEICO was updated with a new exclusion which says “Any attorney fees or litigation costs or expenses awarded against or recoverable from an insured.” Does it mean that if insurance company loses the case, I will be responsible for the other side attorney costs? It makes the c...
by SteadyOne
Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using 529 to buy laptop for college for graduated HS senior
Replies: 8
Views: 611

Using 529 to buy laptop for college for graduated HS senior

What is the best way to pay for laptop for use in college for just graduated HS senior who starts college in the fall? Should I pay and get reimbursed from 529 I own (my child as a beneficiary)? Or let child pay with his credit card and get reimbursed from 529 as a beneficiary? Thanks!
by SteadyOne
Sun Jun 14, 2020 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Incredible Returns
Replies: 67
Views: 6119

Re: Incredible Returns

How do you all deal with friends/colleagues who keep telling you about their amazing, astronomical returns and are using a completely different investing approach than what is typically recommended by bogleheads. I have a co-worker who frequently shows me on his smartphone his recent trades and als...
by SteadyOne
Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump
Replies: 189
Views: 16378

Re: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump

If anyone was really betting that international would outperform US stocks they would be backing that bet with hard cash. Until that happens it is just so much hot air. 50% of my equities is in international, with an explicit allocation to China (via CXSE), which is up 31% YTD. I'm sure there are a...
by SteadyOne
Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TSP G-Fund: cash or bond
Replies: 5
Views: 626

TSP G-Fund: cash or bond

My understanding is that G Fund is a money market fund with extra above market return courtesy of US Treasury. It works great in times of moderate inflation or may be even high. However, if rates are extremely low like now it delivers below inflation, while there are no capital gains. In times of ne...
by SteadyOne
Sat May 30, 2020 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: G Fund no longer keeping pace with inflation
Replies: 9
Views: 1874

Re: G Fund no longer keeping pace with inflation

My understanding is that G Fund is a money market fund with extra above market return courtesy of US Treasury. It works great in times of moderate inflation or may be even high. However, if rates are extremely low like now it delivers below inflation, while there are no capital gains. In times of ne...
by SteadyOne
Wed May 27, 2020 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Examples of why NOT to hold individual stocks
Replies: 93
Views: 7773

Re: Examples of why NOT to hold individual stocks

I like the “Nifty Fifty” from the 1980s. It was thought that you could buy these 50 stocks and hold them forever. The following list represents 18% of those stocks: Burroughs Digital Equipment Eastman Kodak Emery Air Freight Polaroid Schlitz Brewing Sears Roebuck SS Kresge Xerox Yes, I remember the...
by SteadyOne
Tue May 26, 2020 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Examples of why NOT to hold individual stocks
Replies: 93
Views: 7773

Re: Examples of why NOT to hold individual stocks

I agree you can't time the market and picking individual stocks is risky. Having said that, I find myself owning more individual stocks and less stock index funds over time. I have had more winners than losers: My big losers: Chesapeake, Alibaba, an Amazon call option, Skyworks My big winners: Amaz...
by SteadyOne
Tue May 26, 2020 8:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investors: be aware of weakness in 2FA + strengthening
Replies: 153
Views: 8846

Re: Investors: be aware of weakness in 2FA + strengthening

The best security for the average person is a password manager that will autofill your credentials only into a matching domain. The password manager allows you to have unique passwords for each site, preventing credential stuffing, and it allows for validation of the domain for which credentials ar...
by SteadyOne
Mon May 25, 2020 9:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Timing the Market
Replies: 8
Views: 717

Re: Timing the Market

Let me begin by saying that I understand the futility of trying to time the market. Nevertheless, it was fear of losing retirement funds that immobilized me and kept me from putting my Vanguard Roth 401(k) in anything but a money market fund And missing out on earning thousands of dollars over the ...
by SteadyOne
Sat May 23, 2020 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: El-Erian comments on the crisis
Replies: 63
Views: 6885

Re: El-Erian comments on the crisis

Interesting interview and comments from someone who has IMO a good understanding of markets and the economy. Like Zell, he doesn't think a V shaped recovery is a sure thing. Lots of risk still out there and our options to deal with it are robust but less than perfect. Sobering assessment. https://w...
by SteadyOne
Sat May 23, 2020 8:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What single individual stock would you buy?
Replies: 133
Views: 10307

Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Boeing. there is ZERO chance the govt allows it to fail. In the same way as General Motors? Different. There are multiple US auto companies and giving Airbus a monopoly on air travel isn’t going to happen. 100% certainty? No, but close. Saving the company and saving the shareholders are two differe...
by SteadyOne
Sat May 23, 2020 8:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I go to grad school?
Replies: 24
Views: 1686

Re: Should I go to grad school?

I have been accepted to a highly-ranked graduate school for Information Management. I have been on the fence about needing to go to grad school for years, and now I'm on the fence about accepting. I applied when the pandemic started out of fear of losing my job. The program is 1 year, evenings and ...
by SteadyOne
Fri May 22, 2020 7:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FERS Retirement vs. Resignation
Replies: 8
Views: 1072

Re: FERS Retirement vs. Resignation

Earlier this week a co-worker announced that he had resigned 2 years before he reached MRA to take an outside job. It got me thinking about what would lost in making the decision on whether to resign and then take a deferred pension in a few years or hold out until MRA to take an immediate pension....
by SteadyOne
Fri May 22, 2020 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 7326

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosphy

Lets do the math a) 99% invested conservatively (Taleb was pushing tbills last I checked) returns ~0% b) 1% returns like 100x randomguy. We are not Taleb. He has about 100X to 200X his annual expense. So, essentially, he is FI with T-Bills. For normal people like us, the answer would be A) 99% in a...
by SteadyOne
Fri May 22, 2020 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett "Most People Shouldn't Pick Individual Stocks"
Replies: 36
Views: 2761

Re: Warren Buffett "Most People Shouldn't Pick Individual Stocks"

With due respect those 2 companies were solid and I did quite well investing in them in this basis :moneybag 8-) https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=258102 So what? It's worked for me in practice :D Back in the dark days when I was a stock picker I had some occasional winners too. ...
by SteadyOne
Fri May 22, 2020 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 7326

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosphy

In the last couple of days there's been a Twitter exchange between Taleb and Asness covered in the media. Taleb seems to have thrashed Asness (and in tweets this morning Fama and MPT too). So does this put into question the Bogleheads philosphy of risk management? Can someone explain in simple term...
by SteadyOne
Thu May 21, 2020 10:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Email for young teen with ability to auto delete nasty spam
Replies: 32
Views: 2250

Re: Email for young teen with ability to auto delete nasty spam

Gmail is zero privacy and it spies on you. It is free, but free cheese is only in mouse trap. Use paid email services that are quite cheap but great in stopping spam: Protonmail, Mailfence or Fastmail. The cost is very small.
by SteadyOne
Thu May 21, 2020 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?
Replies: 229
Views: 12036

Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Your math is way off. No clue how you came to $15k or $25k. Sorry. So you invested $17,500. Took out $75k. And you are at $45k BTC now. Luckily you got to take advantage of the big run up. Now we have to see how the lawsuit against iFinex Inc., the parent company of Bitfinex and Tether, goes. Were ...
by SteadyOne
Thu May 21, 2020 10:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Assuming we start paying banks to hold our money (in the US)
Replies: 49
Views: 4204

Re: Assuming we start paying banks to hold our money (in the US)

For the first time EVER…Interest rates just began to go NEGATIVE. There are quite a few countries that ALREADY have negative interest Rates: Switzerland is negative 0.75%, Denmark is negative 0.6%, Japan is negative 0.1%. This means you have to pay banks to store your cash for you. Let's assume tha...
by SteadyOne
Wed May 20, 2020 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 9226

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

With a low enough correlation, even an asset class that returns zero can improve the performance of a US-heavy portfolio. So 1+0=2 ? Yep, pretty much. With high enough volatility, low enough correlation, and periodic rebalancing you can increase the return and lower the risk of a portfolio by inclu...
by SteadyOne
Wed May 20, 2020 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 9226

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

This is where a few classes in Chinese political economy could come in handy. I'd recommend starting with Markets Over Mao: The Rise of Private Business in China My point was this - for every foreign investor that was hurt by a financially fraudulent Chinese firm, there are a dozen Chinese investor...
by SteadyOne
Wed May 20, 2020 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 9226

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

With a low enough correlation, even an asset class that returns zero can improve the performance of a US-heavy portfolio. So 1+0=2 ? Yep, pretty much. With high enough volatility, low enough correlation, and periodic rebalancing you can increase the return and lower the risk of a portfolio by inclu...
by SteadyOne
Wed May 20, 2020 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?
Replies: 229
Views: 12036

Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

December 13, 2013 BTC was $880. Quite a run after being less than $200 in November of that year. In that day in history a poster discussed investing $30k. Forum laughed at them. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=128267 Today that $30k is worth $336k. At one point it was worth almost ...
by SteadyOne
Wed May 20, 2020 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?
Replies: 229
Views: 12036

Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

I’ve been also speculating with <3% of assets making a killing on biotechs involved in covid response like Moderna, Inovio, Sorrento etc. Some crypto, bitcoin. Bought some beaten down energy and biotech etfs also killing it. Have you, in fact, actually realized your gains? The dollar amount is too ...
by SteadyOne
Wed May 20, 2020 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 9226

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

Chinese companies also have a high debt load. From: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-29/china-s-corporate-deleveraging-campaign-may-be-set-back-by-years China’s nonfinancial corporate debt accounted for 156.7% of the country’s gross domestic product as of the third quarter of last ye...
by SteadyOne
Wed May 20, 2020 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 9226

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

So, share dilution basically cancels growth in equity returns. No point of investing there until it ends. Not exactly true. Share dilution cancels some of the returns from emerging market companies, but over long holding periods, emerging markets indexes have tended to outperform the total world st...
by SteadyOne
Wed May 20, 2020 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 9226

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

Furthermore, I’m concerned about holding any China based on the share dilution concerns I learned about... Are other countries doing this as well? Do we need to research Emerging Markets more thoroughly before investing in them with index funds? A Forum discussion from a few years ago on this topic...
by SteadyOne
Wed May 20, 2020 9:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 42095

Re: Why international?

If one takes a position that past performance does not matter then it logically follows that it does not matter for anything: asset classes, geographies, correlations, etc. Then why invest more in one asset or another? Based on what premise? Because stocks have higher expected returns? It doesn't m...
by SteadyOne
Tue May 19, 2020 9:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 42095

Re: Why international?

Ex-us stocks are cheaper because they are riskier. Is this controversial? Apparently so. cheaper and riskier --> higher future returns, except in the tiny little special case of all stocks outside the US. In that tiny little special case, many here argue that cheaper, riskier international stocks w...
by SteadyOne
Tue May 19, 2020 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 9226

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

Bill Bernstein wrote: The reason to avoid China's equity markets can be summarized in one word: dilution. The best estimates are that the Chinese equity markets dilute their share pools on the order of about 20% per year, so even if the country is growing its GDP and corporate profits at slightly l...
by SteadyOne
Tue May 19, 2020 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 9226

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

The reason to avoid China's equity markets can be summarized in one word: dilution. The best estimates are that the Chinese equity markets dilute their share pools on the order of about 20% per year, so even if the country is growing its GDP and corporate profits at slightly less than 10% pa, they ...
by SteadyOne
Tue May 19, 2020 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 9226

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

I am hoping Bogleheads can help explain this topic to me, as I find it confusing. Dr. Burton Malkiel wrote the below statement in one of his books. He discusses that the Total World Index only has about a 2 percent China weighting, however this is a major flaw according to him. He says: “ Most inde...
by SteadyOne
Tue May 19, 2020 6:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 42095

Re: Why international?

Well thats a pretty dumb quote. bgf: This is the first time that I have heard someone say that Mr. Bogle made a "dumb" quote. You should find it informative to learn that when Jack Bogle published his first book in 1994 he wrote: "A long-term investor need not allocate any of his or her assets to n...
by SteadyOne
Tue May 19, 2020 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 9226

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

Has anyone considered adding a China ETF to their portfolios based on this flaw presented by Dr. Malkiel? Anyone who has been a passive investor in an emerging markets index fund in recent years (using either MSCI or FTSE indexes) has been automatically adding an increased China exposure to their p...
by SteadyOne
Mon May 18, 2020 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 195
Views: 13216

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

International has done poorly in recent years compared to the US. There is no guarantee that will continue. And, if you are going to check performance, 10 years is too short a time period. 40 years would be better - get you back to 1980, near the beginning of the personal computer and near the star...
by SteadyOne
Mon May 18, 2020 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 195
Views: 13216

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

I'll stick with the overwhelming winner, the S&P 500 Index fund, until it's not the winner. Good luck with that. Investing in something until it is not the winner literally means you'll sell after it underperforms. The point is I've been in the S&P 500 for 20 years and it has been the clear winner....
by SteadyOne
Mon May 18, 2020 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?
Replies: 155
Views: 20972

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Looks like dumping the airlines was just the beginning ... (Reuters) - Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N) said on Friday it has sold much of its stake in Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N), despite the billionaire’s assurance that the banking sector was not a “primary worry” for him durin...
by SteadyOne
Mon May 18, 2020 8:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Strategies for People Temporarily Drawing Unemployment
Replies: 15
Views: 1526

Re: Any resources on Reduction in Force procedures for Federal Employees?

I’m going to be intentionally light on details here. Please bear with me. I work for a federal agency that has announced to its entire workforce that absent legislative intervention (which is apparently underway) there is a possibility of running out of funds and not making payroll at some point th...
by SteadyOne
Mon May 18, 2020 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?
Replies: 229
Views: 12036

Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Some gripes about transaction costs in this thread. Transaction costs lately for BTC are relatively high. Currently around $3!! Most of the year has seen fees around 50cents. But of interest may be the fact that the average transaction value has been $30k USD. $3 to move $30k, not bad. People are m...
by SteadyOne
Mon May 18, 2020 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?
Replies: 229
Views: 12036

Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Some gripes about transaction costs in this thread. Transaction costs lately for BTC are relatively high. Currently around $3!! Most of the year has seen fees around 50cents. But of interest may be the fact that the average transaction value has been $30k USD. $3 to move $30k, not bad. People are m...
by SteadyOne
Mon May 18, 2020 5:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 42095

Re: Why international?

The best option for someone very resistant going international would be to select nations most similar to US in terms of legal system, low corruption, transparency rule of law, open economy, etc. It looks like Five Eyes countries fit that definition. Actually their combined historical performance i...
by SteadyOne
Mon May 18, 2020 3:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 42095

Re: Why international?

I pick 6.5% over 4.5% anytime. 117 years means all modern market history. You're not answering the actual hypothetical. We're looking forward, not backward, and we're not comparing US and international, we're comparing US and a global portfolio that includes both US and international. If you won't ...
by SteadyOne
Sun May 17, 2020 7:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What single individual stock would you buy?
Replies: 133
Views: 10307

Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

I'd buy a lottery ticket instead. Greater risk but potentially greater reward. So if I purchased Microsoft, Apple or Amazon its equvilant to buying lottery ticket? Wow this is truly the twilight zone No, the lottery ticket is less expensive so I have less to lose. So no idex funds dropped as indivi...
by SteadyOne
Sun May 17, 2020 7:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What single individual stock would you buy?
Replies: 133
Views: 10307

Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

PoultryMan wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:09 am
Boeing. there is ZERO chance the govt allows it to fail.
In the same way as General Motors?
by SteadyOne
Sat May 16, 2020 8:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 42095

Re: Why international?

I think it's worth pointing out for accuracy that S. Africa beat the US in Rands, but lagged in USD. Source? Figure 13 in the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2020 (Summary Edition), which shows real annualized equity returns in local currency and USD for 1900-2019. Only one country...
by SteadyOne
Sat May 16, 2020 8:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 42095

Re: Why international?

On what basis do you believe that to be so? https://investors-corner.bnpparibas-am.com/investing/chinese-equities-global-indices/ I don't see anything in that piece to indicate that Chinese stock should represent more than about 5% of global market cap. Perhaps I'm just blind. "MSCI will raise the ...
by SteadyOne
Sat May 16, 2020 12:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 42095

Re: Why international?

I pick 6.5% over 4.5% anytime. 117 years means all modern market history. You're not answering the actual hypothetical. We're looking forward, not backward, and we're not comparing US and international, we're comparing US and a global portfolio that includes both US and international. If you won't ...
by SteadyOne
Sat May 16, 2020 7:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 42095

Re: Why international?

Deleted