Search found 326 matches

by Wanderingwheelz
Sun May 24, 2020 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: El-Erian comments on the crisis
Replies: 51
Views: 5082

Re: El-Erian comments on the crisis

[..].. Where I live and the industry I’m in are inconsequential. Americans aren’t forced to adhere to a view of their freedoms and their physical and mental health based on their zip codes. This is about Americans basic desire to be free to do what they want to do, which, yes, includes staying at h...
by Wanderingwheelz
Sat May 23, 2020 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: El-Erian comments on the crisis
Replies: 51
Views: 5082

Re: El-Erian comments on the crisis

There are some reasons to be more optimistic than what he’s espousing. Today is the first day my businesses have been open for customers (inside) and it’s been very busy- surprisingly so. It may mean nothing, but the idea there won’t be a powerful recovery doesn’t jibe with what I’m experiencing in...
by Wanderingwheelz
Sat May 23, 2020 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: El-Erian comments on the crisis
Replies: 51
Views: 5082

Re: El-Erian comments on the crisis

Interesting interview and comments from someone who has IMO a good understanding of markets and the economy. Like Zell, he doesn't think a V shaped recovery is a sure thing. Lots of risk still out there and our options to deal with it are robust but less than perfect. Sobering assessment. https://w...
by Wanderingwheelz
Fri May 22, 2020 6:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?
Replies: 50
Views: 4374

Re: Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?

To a much lesser degree Amazon has hundreds of thousands of potential customers they will need to grow, but many of those people would never use Amazon because their business practices are so ruthless and anticompetitive that they don’t want to support their growth. I too predict that we will feast...
by Wanderingwheelz
Thu May 21, 2020 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?
Replies: 50
Views: 4374

Re: Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?

Bond investors are preparing for a stagnant economic future with possible negative rates, while stock investors are figuring that even if inflation and economic growth remain low for decades, stocks will still outperform... Isn't this what's been going on for several decades now? The yields on long...
by Wanderingwheelz
Thu May 21, 2020 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?
Replies: 50
Views: 4374

Re: Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?

The only reasonable or logical conclusion that makes any sense to me is that both the stock and the bond markets are preparing for low single digit to zero nominal and negative real returns over decades. I have tended to focus upon bond yields and stock prices when investing. However, if one focuse...
by Wanderingwheelz
Mon May 18, 2020 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total market or S&P 500?
Replies: 44
Views: 3569

Re: Total market or S&P 500?

A scenario when TSM benefits is when they announce a company will be added to the S&P 500. Typically that stock jumps quite a bit. TSM will benefit. S&P will not. At least that's the theory I've read. That same concept has another reason That TSM might have a slight edge and that is when you hold a...
by Wanderingwheelz
Mon May 18, 2020 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.
Replies: 83
Views: 3457

Re: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.

The recent downturn has made it clear that many consumers, small businesses, and even large corporations were set up to be efficient and not resilient. I've heard of many stories of landlords, for instance, who are at risk of foreclosure if they miss a couple of months of rent on their properties. ...
by Wanderingwheelz
Mon May 18, 2020 10:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does portfolio size matter when considering Sequence of return risk?
Replies: 43
Views: 2436

Re: Does portfolio size matter when considering Sequence of return risk?

1) Sequence of return risk happens when you input money in the system. If you don’t, there is no sequence of return risk regardless of the size of the portfolio Thanks for the response, but what does that mean? After reading various posts, etc on retirement, glide-paths and bond tents, the advice s...
by Wanderingwheelz
Sun May 17, 2020 8:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Borderline personality disorder and investing
Replies: 16
Views: 1912

Re: Borderline personality disorder and investing

Nobody with a firm diagnosis of BPD should try to manage their own checkbook, let alone their own investments.

Like you said, people on a forum like this one don’t have any idea what you struggle with in a daily basis. I actually do, though.
by Wanderingwheelz
Sat May 16, 2020 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15394

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

If your expenses , goals and aspirations are the same now as 20 years ago and will be the same again 20 years from now then that is great. I doubt too many folks, couples, families have that same experience. I expect pretty much everyone goes through life matching their expenses, goals, and aspirat...
by Wanderingwheelz
Fri May 15, 2020 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15394

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

As long as you have a home that’s paid for- a well-built/well-located home you’re happy to live your remaining years in, and you have 25x expenses saved up in addition to the house, you can retire at any age in my opinion. You just have to remain flexible in your spending, which isn’t going to be ha...
by Wanderingwheelz
Tue May 12, 2020 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advantages of keeping your income below the stimulus check limits this year
Replies: 15
Views: 1897

Re: Advantages of keeping your income below the stimulus check limits this year

There may be some people out there who don’t know that the stimulus is for the tax year 2020, but used your 2018 or 2019 return to determine if you will receive the $1,200 in advance, or not. I’d your 2020 income allows you to qualify, retroactively, then you’ll be allowed to make a deduction for it...
by Wanderingwheelz
Tue May 12, 2020 7:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should you include home equity in Net Worth?
Replies: 160
Views: 7589

Re: Should you include home equity in Net Worth?

Should home equity be included in your Net Worth? Also, how would you calculate it - the amount of principal paid down from your original loan, the amount owed vs. estimated value of house, the amount owed vs. estimated value of house net selling expenses....? What's the point of your "net worth" c...
by Wanderingwheelz
Tue May 12, 2020 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in Taxable (Low tax state)
Replies: 18
Views: 747

Re: Bonds in Taxable (Low tax state)

Hi all. I rarely hear discussion about someone who is in a high federal tax bracket but a low tax state (like PA.) After some research, I feel an appropriate buy-and-hold bond portfolio for a taxable account could be: 50% Intermediate Treasuries 50% Internediate Munis The concern is that the treasu...
by Wanderingwheelz
Tue May 12, 2020 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15394

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

My point is that with lower future expected bond returns than the last 40 years, the withdrawal rate of an X% stock portfolio won't be as safe as it was in the past. A lower withdrawal rate will likely be required. That's not supported by the historical data. The '4% rule' held up throughout all 30...
by Wanderingwheelz
Mon May 11, 2020 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what moment does retirement begin?
Replies: 50
Views: 3543

Re: At what moment does retirement begin?

For your retirement, at what moment will it, or did it actually begin? Maybe the standard time is midnight just as the date changes, like on the New Year. But since it’s YOUR RETIREMENT you can pick the moment, correct or not? I’m thinking my retirement will begin at sunrise on the first day. I’m p...
by Wanderingwheelz
Sun May 10, 2020 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2955
Views: 526440

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

-4.4% mainly because my purchases have been going to International. TLH has been a big help for future taxes, which is my only bright spot, if it’s considered one at all.
by Wanderingwheelz
Sun May 10, 2020 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing
Replies: 95
Views: 18786

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing

If one expands the graph to September 26, 2018 when the VPGMX fund switched to new strategy, the Vanguard fund has a loss of about 15% while the comparison precious metal funds from USAA and Fidelity have gains in the 80% range. It truly has been a case Vanguard bailing on an out of favor sector at...
by Wanderingwheelz
Sun May 10, 2020 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategy for paying down mortgage
Replies: 22
Views: 1827

Re: Strategy for paying down mortgage

We paid ours off in 5 years doing A. There may have been a better way, but it worked out well for us.
by Wanderingwheelz
Sun May 10, 2020 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New college graduates - what's the job situation?
Replies: 12
Views: 2475

Re: New college graduates - what's the job situation?

My daughter had a job lined up but she decided to not take it since it felt risky to move to the city with a job market that is going from bad to worse, even if she had a shaky job lined up. She’s going to stay home and work in my wife’s business And perhaps in mine too, which will take a spot away ...
by Wanderingwheelz
Sun May 10, 2020 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Technology Fund
Replies: 82
Views: 3401

Re: Vanguard Technology Fund

Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT) doesn't have Amazon, Google, or Facebook (which are in Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services) but QQQ does. I put some money into big tech names (individual stocks) that have juicy balance sheets, for fear that if we tumbled into some kind of de...
by Wanderingwheelz
Sun May 10, 2020 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Technology Fund
Replies: 82
Views: 3401

Re: Vanguard Technology Fund

Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT) doesn't have Amazon, Google, or Facebook (which are in Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services) but QQQ does. I put some money into big tech names (individual stocks) that have juicy balance sheets, for fear that if we tumbled into some kind of de...
by Wanderingwheelz
Sun May 10, 2020 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Technology Fund
Replies: 82
Views: 3401

Re: Vanguard Technology Fund

Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT) doesn't have Amazon, Google, or Facebook (which are in Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services) but QQQ does. I put some money into big tech names (individual stocks) that have juicy balance sheets, for fear that if we tumbled into some kind of de...
by Wanderingwheelz
Thu May 07, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn’t BRK just buy SP500 index fund?
Replies: 37
Views: 3475

Re: Why doesn’t BRK just buy SP500 index fund?

Warren Buffett runs Berkshire like a business that he wants to be around forever. Most companies in the S&P 500 are not run that way.
by Wanderingwheelz
Thu May 07, 2020 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bond rule of thumb better than "age in bonds"
Replies: 152
Views: 10356

Re: A bond rule of thumb better than "age in bonds"

If you’ve “made it” and don’t want to risk losing it, it suggest not going beyond the classic 60/40, or maybe 50/30/10 if you want to add some gold. Age has very little to do with whether or not a person has “made it”, so ages based rules are of little use to a person who has enough money that they ...
by Wanderingwheelz
Mon May 04, 2020 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Disney the most tempting value stock?
Replies: 222
Views: 12979

Re: Is Disney the most tempting value stock?

Never liked Disney, felt it was over-hyped, overcrowded, bad food, long lines, poor treatment of employees and environment. We tolerate many business with the excuse that they create jobs and are good for the economy. Perhaps we don't need Disney and the economy could survive without these big boxe...
by Wanderingwheelz
Mon May 04, 2020 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Disney the most tempting value stock?
Replies: 222
Views: 12979

Re: Is Disney the most tempting value stock?

Never liked Disney, felt it was over-hyped, overcrowded, bad food, long lines, poor treatment of employees and environment. We tolerate many business with the excuse that they create jobs and are good for the economy. Perhaps we don't need Disney and the economy could survive without these big boxe...
by Wanderingwheelz
Mon May 04, 2020 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Disney the most tempting value stock?
Replies: 222
Views: 12979

Re: Is Disney the most tempting value stock?

Never liked Disney, felt it was over-hyped, overcrowded, bad food, long lines, poor treatment of employees and environment. We tolerate many business with the excuse that they create jobs and are good for the economy. Perhaps we don't need Disney and the economy could survive without these big boxe...
by Wanderingwheelz
Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate Maybe It Really Is Different This Time?
Replies: 21
Views: 1941

Re: Real Estate Maybe It Really Is Different This Time?

What I thought was a suitable emergency fund isn’t suitable anymore. Good point. I have never placed a cap, number of months, or another metric on our cash balances. I simply just continue to add over time. That's a shocking statement coming from a long-time Boglehead. No plan, just an infinitely g...
by Wanderingwheelz
Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate Maybe It Really Is Different This Time?
Replies: 21
Views: 1941

Re: Real Estate Maybe It Really Is Different This Time?

It sounds like you are assessing whether or not REITs are a good long term investment for you. IMO, it is not market timing to change your long term investments based on your needs and perceived long term market trends. You have to decide what is best for you and not worry about what other people t...
by Wanderingwheelz
Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I retire?
Replies: 32
Views: 2814

Re: Can I retire?

I bring home about $77K a year and we pay about $10k in taxes. If I retire, I bring home $53K a year but we still pay about $10k in taxes. We spend about $65k a year including mortgage. Is your child’s college fund topped up? If I had a good paying job that I didn’t hate I would definitely keep wor...
by Wanderingwheelz
Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which % to be held in bonds, if Not age?
Replies: 70
Views: 4307

Re: Which % to be held in bonds, if Not age?

bertilak wrote:
Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:58 am
If one is, at least in part, investing to provide a legacy, does this break the "age in bonds" rule of thumb?
Stepped up basis is one of the friendliest parts or the tax code there is for wealthy families.
by Wanderingwheelz
Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63018

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

We will probably be retesting the 2200 low, so even if it only drops to 2400, it is unlikely he will be burned as long as he doesn't get greedy and shoot for 2200. Agree it's unlikely. Still hoping. I’m confused why you’re hoping for someone to lose money. He’s cheering short sellers making money. ...
by Wanderingwheelz
Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Neiman Marcus to file for bankruptcy
Replies: 67
Views: 6846

Re: Neiman Marcus to file for bankruptcy

I'm sure I'm not the only poster here who knows someone who has recently been laid-off and then turned down other jobs because they could make more on unemployment, at least for the next few months. My sister falls in this category and I believe my FIL does too. May not be a choice to be laid-off, ...
by Wanderingwheelz
Wed Apr 22, 2020 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63018

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

watchnerd wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:44 pm
adave wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:39 pm
I just have a lot of doubt the government and Fed would ever allow it to happen.
Ehhh?

Huge swaths of retail have gone bankrupt in the last decade.

Sears, Blockbuster, Forever 21, etc.

There are boundaries.
Where exactly are the boundaries? Asking for a friend.
by Wanderingwheelz
Wed Apr 22, 2020 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63018

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Yesterday was a very nice short opportunity :sharebeer Shorted with 10% of portfolio value with SPXU @ 2'630 Sold 20% of portfolio value in VTI @ 2'630 Let's get into the 2nd stage of the bear :sharebeer Man I sure hope you get burned!!! We will probably be retesting the 2200 low, so even if it onl...
by Wanderingwheelz
Wed Apr 22, 2020 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Neiman Marcus to file for bankruptcy
Replies: 67
Views: 6846

Re: Neiman Marcus to file for bankruptcy

The largest unemployment in our history and you are arguing that people will withdraw from the labor force? Do you understand that we have lost over 20 million jobs, and none of it has been by choice? You formatted your post incorrectly and, also, you are wrong. I'm sure I'm not the only poster her...
by Wanderingwheelz
Mon Apr 20, 2020 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Investment Adviser’s Dirty Secret
Replies: 77
Views: 9596

Re: Your Investment Adviser’s Dirty Secret

I feel like it was missing one very big piece of information though, and that’s what Rick charges for his time and knowledge. You can find that information on his website. Right out there in the open for all to see. :happy That’s the same with the AUM based fee-advisors too- their fees are right in...
by Wanderingwheelz
Mon Apr 20, 2020 7:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Neiman Marcus to file for bankruptcy
Replies: 67
Views: 6846

Re: Neiman Marcus to file for bankruptcy

The largest unemployment in our history and you are arguing that people will withdraw from the labor force? Do you understand that we have lost over 20 million jobs, and none of it has been by choice? You formatted your post incorrectly and, also, you are wrong. I'm sure I'm not the only poster her...
by Wanderingwheelz
Sun Apr 19, 2020 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Investment Adviser’s Dirty Secret
Replies: 77
Views: 9596

Re: Your Investment Adviser’s Dirty Secret

I agree that fixed fee or per hour fee for an advisor is much better than AUM. I have said multiple times shame on Vanguard for ripping off clients with their AUM model PAS system. I agree that paying a percentage isn’t the right way to go, which Rick made very clear in his advertisement. I feel li...
by Wanderingwheelz
Sun Apr 19, 2020 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Neiman Marcus to file for bankruptcy
Replies: 67
Views: 6846

Re: Neiman Marcus to file for bankruptcy

This is the era of Chinese manufacturers selling directly to Americans on Amazon.com.
by Wanderingwheelz
Thu Apr 16, 2020 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of your paycheck do you invest?
Replies: 268
Views: 16326

Re: What percentage of your paycheck do you invest?

Right now, for the first time in our adult lives, my wide and I are investing nothing from our earned income since the governor of our state declared we close our businesses, thus having earned income of $0.
by Wanderingwheelz
Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What in the world is propping up this market?
Replies: 206
Views: 20747

Re: What in the world is propping up this market?

I mean, the economy is all but shut down folks. This is hyperbole and your argument is based upon a false premise. The Wall Street Journal estimates that 29% of the U.S. economy is shut down, so if 71% of the economy is still going on then the economy is not "all but shut down." https://www.thedail...
by Wanderingwheelz
Tue Apr 14, 2020 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My theory about FIRE
Replies: 419
Views: 30533

Re: My theory about FIRE

I agree with all that. And practicing medicine on your own terms is still practicing medicine. I wouldn't really describe that as switching out of the field. Same would be true for lawyers that switch to doing work on their own terms for causes they care about or whatever. What I was talking about ...
by Wanderingwheelz
Tue Apr 14, 2020 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Airbnb getting hit?
Replies: 50
Views: 4655

Re: Airbnb getting hit?

In my state short term rentals are banned indefinitely. Tourism is a very big industry for the state, too.
by Wanderingwheelz
Tue Apr 14, 2020 4:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What in the world is propping up this market?
Replies: 206
Views: 20747

Re: What in the world is propping up this market?

Capitulation never really happened here. I’m not saying it has to, or even should, but the fact that it never did tells me there’s still a lot of weak hands out there. I can't claim to know a ratio, but it sure seems to me there are a lot of threads by people who have been selling :shock: Vanguards...
by Wanderingwheelz
Tue Apr 14, 2020 4:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What in the world is propping up this market?
Replies: 206
Views: 20747

Re: What in the world is propping up this market?

Nobody wants to sell their shares at a low or lower price. Until they’re forced to or can’t take the pain any longer. Capitulation never really happened here. I’m not saying it has to, or even should, but the fact that it never did tells me there’s still a lot of weak hands out there. I’m curious t...
by Wanderingwheelz
Tue Apr 14, 2020 4:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My theory about FIRE
Replies: 419
Views: 30533

Re: My theory about FIRE

I’m not satisfied with being relatively okay. That may be financially independent, but to me that sounds like a place from where a lot can go wrong. That would worry me. But we are all wired differently, and I respect other people’s points of view. No, it's not about starting from "relatively okay"...
by Wanderingwheelz
Tue Apr 14, 2020 4:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What in the world is propping up this market?
Replies: 206
Views: 20747

Re: What in the world is propping up this market?

I mean, the economy is all but shut down folks. This is hyperbole and your argument is based upon a false premise. The Wall Street Journal estimates that 29% of the U.S. economy is shut down, so if 71% of the economy is still going on then the economy is not "all but shut down." https://www.thedail...