Search found 93 matches

by EthanAllen
Sun Nov 29, 2020 6:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Family member has one million in one stock , doesn't want to cash out
Replies: 296
Views: 34522

Re: Family member has one million in one stock , doesn't want to cash out

So far he has picked the wrong stocks, sold a lot of his tesla and never got back in , and picked up other stocks that have been losing money. It is what it is. I hope it works out for him. We still text each other everyday to talk about the hot stock for the day and I tell him when I make some mov...
by EthanAllen
Sun Nov 29, 2020 6:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Family member has one million in one stock , doesn't want to cash out
Replies: 296
Views: 34522

Re: Family member has one million in one stock , doesn't want to cash out

Based on some of the posts on this page, seems like OP is almost as much of a market timer/gambler as his dad. He just didn’t like the bets being made by his dad.

If you’re texting each other every day about the hot stock of the day, you’re just a few degrees apart on the risk/gambling scale.
by EthanAllen
Mon Apr 06, 2020 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6794
Views: 653190

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

What is the current volatility using those metrics? How would one find that out?
by EthanAllen
Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6794
Views: 653190

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Can you please translate that in simple English? What is the takeaway of that chart? Is it saying that when there is greater volatility, there is a greater disparity between 3x returns of index and actual returns? What do those percentages mean? Is it saying that in high volatility markets, even if...
by EthanAllen
Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6794
Views: 653190

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

In general, I would not add to a strategy like this when the VIX is high. Wait until it drops. Could you talk through that advice a bit more? Specifically what value of vix would you wait for before you contribute - and would you time regular contributions to a standard 3 funder using the same metr...
by EthanAllen
Sun Feb 23, 2020 5:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fractional shares of ETFs
Replies: 9
Views: 1021

Re: Fractional shares of ETFs

Not sure what you mean ... Fidelity allows dollar-denominated trading of ETFs. For example, you can buy $10,000 of VTI if you want.
by EthanAllen
Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6794
Views: 653190

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Assume I want to put 5% of overall assets into this strategy ... Roth IRA or Rollover IRA for this adventure? (I know the general guidanxe is that tax advantaged accounts are preferable, but is one more preferable than the other?) Thanks.
by EthanAllen
Sun Feb 02, 2020 6:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Disturbing Question on 2019 IRS Tax Form [Bitcoin]
Replies: 59
Views: 3968

Re: Disturbing Question on 2019 IRS Tax Form

It is a federal crime to make a false statement on an IRS form...
by EthanAllen
Sun Feb 02, 2020 3:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dollar cost averaging at Fidelity
Replies: 13
Views: 1596

Re: Dollar cost averaging at Fidelity

I cannot help with your specific question on setting up recurring investments on fidelity, but two thoughts: As a technical matter, it literally takes less than a minute to make a transfer on the Fidelity website or app. If you are that insistent on investing every [x] days, just set up a reminder o...
by EthanAllen
Tue Jan 28, 2020 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6794
Views: 653190

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I thought I had some minimal idea of how to talk intelligently about investing. Then I read this thread. Now my head hurts Raising the white flag instead of trying to figure out whether implementing this on part of my portfolio makes sense.
by EthanAllen
Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ready to invest in the stock market for the first time in my life
Replies: 95
Views: 5979

Re: Ready to invest in the stock market for the first time in my life

Greater than 50% chance this is all flame. This guy knows about 3x leveraged ETFs and sector ETFs and trading with stop losses but is supposedly blown away by simple concepts like past performance not predicting future results? He is overjoyed about “winning” $200 but is also day trading Tesla? Colo...
by EthanAllen
Sun Jan 19, 2020 6:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My 60 y/o parents have basically 0 for retirement & will have no SS/Medicare
Replies: 166
Views: 17331

Re: My 60 y/o parents have basically 0 for retirement & will have no SS/Medicare

I can’t believe I’m the first person commenting on this, but did you say you had to delay applying to college cause they didn’t even have your birth/citizenship docs? If that (and not helping your sister and not showing up to her wedding) didn’t embarrass them into realizing they needed to get their...
by EthanAllen
Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Maximum Roth IRA Contribution for low income
Replies: 5
Views: 542

Re: Maximum Roth IRA Contribution for low income

Isn’t the Roth IRA max $6K, not $7K? Did I miss something? (Never mind. Missed the part that he was over 50.)
by EthanAllen
Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to lower last years income for moderately low income earner.
Replies: 36
Views: 2201

Re: How to lower last years income for moderately low income earner.

Or just go to the “cost basis” or unrealized gains page and copy/paste over here all the different tax lots that will show how many shares got added to your account on which dates.
by EthanAllen
Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to lower last years income for moderately low income earner.
Replies: 36
Views: 2201

Re: How to lower last years income for moderately low income earner.

You still haven’t answered whether the gains are long term or short term capital gains (i.e., held for more than a year or not). At your income, you may have a 0% capital gains rate. If that’s true, sell it all (I would have said sell on Dec 31 of last year for tax reasons because you will never get...
by EthanAllen
Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to lower last years income for moderately low income earner.
Replies: 36
Views: 2201

Re: How to lower last years income for moderately low income earner.

And one final post to try to make you see the error (or at least danger) of your ways: the 2000s — FOR AN ENTIRE DECADE — had a negative annual return rate. From 1/1/2000 to 1/1/2010, the market had an annualized negative growth rate. If the market has an annualized negative growth rate from 2020-20...
by EthanAllen
Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to lower last years income for moderately low income earner.
Replies: 36
Views: 2201

Re: How to lower last years income for moderately low income earner.

I can not see interest ever killing the profits in the long run. If they were what are some options to continue having the loan and be safer with the money? Assume 2020-2022 look the same as 2000-2002. This is how things started then: 2000: -10.14% 2001: -13.04% 2002: -23.37% After three bad years ...
by EthanAllen
Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to lower last years income for moderately low income earner.
Replies: 36
Views: 2201

Re: How to lower last years income for moderately low income earner.

What does “have a HELOC for 156K that I was betting against the market” mean? I am interpreting that to mean he's borrowing from his HELOC, and investing those loan proceeds into the market in stocks. Leverage. If that’s true then nothing else in this thread matters remotely as much as fixing that ...
by EthanAllen
Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to lower last years income for moderately low income earner.
Replies: 36
Views: 2201

Re: How to lower last years income for moderately low income earner.

What does “have a HELOC for 156K that I was betting against the market” mean? I am interpreting that to mean he's borrowing from his HELOC, and investing those loan proceeds into the market in stocks. Leverage. If that’s true then nothing else in this thread matters remotely as much as fixing that ...
by EthanAllen
Sun Jan 05, 2020 4:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to lower last years income for moderately low income earner.
Replies: 36
Views: 2201

Re: How to lower last years income for moderately low income earner.

What does “have a HELOC for 156K that I was betting against the market” mean?
by EthanAllen
Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sister wants advice since I disagreed with her financial advisers.
Replies: 141
Views: 13935

Re: Sister wants advice since I disagreed with her financial advisers.

To build on my prior post on this page... I just re-read the OP. does the inherited IRA mean that a majority of her (relatively modest) current retirement assets were inherited from someone else? If so, this is a couple that, in their mid-30s, has combined to do the following: - Saved/invested less ...
by EthanAllen
Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sister wants advice since I disagreed with her financial advisers.
Replies: 141
Views: 13935

Re: Sister wants advice since I disagreed with her financial advisers.

I would respectfully suggest that a much tougher and “come back to reality” discussion needs to be had with your sister. Or alternatively, she and her husband need to have a much more honest and introspective discussion with each other. Her stated goals are absolutely laughable given her financial p...
by EthanAllen
Thu Oct 31, 2019 10:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRS Tax Notice - Question re Taxable Income
Replies: 10
Views: 1393

Re: IRS Tax Notice - Question re Taxable Income

You have to run the numbers- go back and plug in the $800 of income and see how it flows through the return forms. It is certainly that there is a phase out of some program that increases your taxes by more than 100%. For example, if you have an ACA health insurance policy, one dollar of additional...
by EthanAllen
Thu Oct 31, 2019 10:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRS Tax Notice - Question re Taxable Income
Replies: 10
Views: 1393

Re: IRS Tax Notice - Question re Taxable Income

I can't think of a reason that $800 additional income would increase taxable income by $3,800. My only guess would be that in the revised tax calculation, the IRS either intentionally or accidentally removed a $3,000 capital loss. Did the IRS tax notice make any reference to a change to capital gai...
by EthanAllen
Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRS Tax Notice - Question re Taxable Income
Replies: 10
Views: 1393

IRS Tax Notice - Question re Taxable Income

I received a notice from the IRS that I failed to disclose certain partnership income and owe taxes. (It seems they are correct. I do my own taxes and apparently failed to include a few hundred dollars in partnership income from some investment. Must have inadvertently missed that K1 during filing s...
by EthanAllen
Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What should I know about high interest loans to family?
Replies: 20
Views: 1270

Re: What should I know about high interest loans to family?

Will others in your family be resentful that you accepted high interest from your brother rather than no- or low-interest? I could imagine problems like that occurring on some families. Andy. I doubt anyone else knows and hopefully no one needs to find out. To be honest i am a bit uncomfortable cha...
by EthanAllen
Thu Aug 29, 2019 8:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What should I know about high interest loans to family?
Replies: 20
Views: 1270

Re: What should I know about high interest loans to family?

BuddyJet wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2019 8:33 pm With the rate that high, you should check your state’s usury law to ensure you are OK.

That said, In my mind, I think of family loans as a gift and am pleasantly surprised if I get anything back.
Thanks. Had not checked that.
by EthanAllen
Thu Aug 29, 2019 8:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What should I know about high interest loans to family?
Replies: 20
Views: 1270

Re: What should I know about high interest loans to family?

Why isn't he selling his invoices to a factorer? Simplified article --- https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/small-business/small-business-invoice-factoring/ I doubt he would be paying 25% (unless his customers are not creditworthy). He looked into it...the factor rate quoted to him translates to about ...
by EthanAllen
Thu Aug 29, 2019 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What should I know about high interest loans to family?
Replies: 20
Views: 1270

Re: What should I know about high interest loans to family?

Mountain Doc wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2019 8:29 pm
EthanAllen wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2019 8:15 pm How should I treat a 25% loan...
As a very, very risky investment.

Yes, the interest is taxable. Document the loan terms well if you proceed.
Agreed.
by EthanAllen
Thu Aug 29, 2019 8:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What should I know about high interest loans to family?
Replies: 20
Views: 1270

What should I know about high interest loans to family?

I have a brother who needs a loan to help with cash flow for his small business. He has the ability to get small business loans or loans against his invoices but hates the idea of paying others so much in interest. (As an example, he got quoted a factor of 1.25 for a loan against certain invoices). ...
by EthanAllen
Fri Jul 19, 2019 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the optimal market movement if investing 20% of portfolio today?
Replies: 9
Views: 1025

What is the optimal market movement if investing 20% of portfolio today?

Hi friends - this is a math/theory question, not anything that will be used as actionable intel. I am a boglehead. I know lumpsum is better than DCA. I am not market-timing. As a theoretical matter, here is my question: Imagine I just put in an order to move 20% of my portfolio from cash to the tota...
by EthanAllen
Sun Jul 14, 2019 10:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any benefits to keeping open trading accounts with 0 balance?
Replies: 5
Views: 672

Re: Any benefits to keeping open trading accounts with 0 balance?

Thanks for the comments. Seems like it makes sense to keep the accounts open for at least a while.
by EthanAllen
Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any benefits to keeping open trading accounts with 0 balance?
Replies: 5
Views: 672

Any benefits to keeping open trading accounts with 0 balance?

I am in the process of significantly simplifying my accounts. Not quite thinking of using Fidelity as a one-stop shop but close. Let’s say I sell or transfer my account holdings at Vanguard or another brokerage and then have a $0 balance in that trading account. (Assume there is no monthly account m...
by EthanAllen
Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Shouldn't I Switch to Low Carbon/Fossil Fuel Free Index Funds
Replies: 43
Views: 3015

Re: Why Shouldn't I Switch to Low Carbon/Fossil Fuel Free Index Funds

Anyway I do think that it would be better to stay in the S&P500 vs. trying to pick and choose which renewable companies will be successful. Current large oil companies are starting to see the writing on the wall and starting to invest in renewables and charging stations so they might not go und...
by EthanAllen
Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Shouldn't I Switch to Low Carbon/Fossil Fuel Free Index Funds
Replies: 43
Views: 3015

Re: Why Shouldn't I Switch to Low Carbon/Fossil Fuel Free Index Funds

The OP’s reasoning almost assumes that investments by him and investments by others are one-shot deals. They aren’t. And there are way more risks to his investment theory than just investing in the broader market. Further, even if his investment theory is right about renewables, there is nothing to ...
by EthanAllen
Thu Jul 11, 2019 2:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 25 years to retirement; assume 0 future contributions
Replies: 21
Views: 2719

Re: 25 years to retirement; assume 0 future contributions

lakpr:

Thanks for your post. I will try to process, although posts like yours make me think I’m not as good at math as I thought I was ...
by EthanAllen
Thu Jul 11, 2019 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 25 years to retirement; assume 0 future contributions
Replies: 21
Views: 2719

Re: 25 years to retirement; assume 0 future contributions

I don't know what asset allocation you'd choose, but it's clear that you'd be somewhat more risk adverse, since your cumulative expected retirement contributions will be lower. If you have $1 million in savings and $1 million in future contributions, you can survive stock market going to zero today...
by EthanAllen
Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 25 years to retirement; assume 0 future contributions
Replies: 21
Views: 2719

Re: 25 years to retirement; assume 0 future contributions

$1 million in net assets between his and her retirement plans and taxable accounts What do you do and how do you invest? This is what I would do. 1) Max out the work retirement account contributions each year by living on money from the taxable accounts. For example in the 25% tax bracket have 401k...
by EthanAllen
Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 25 years to retirement; assume 0 future contributions
Replies: 21
Views: 2719

Re: 25 years to retirement; assume 0 future contributions

Investments would probably be best between 60/40 and 100/0. That’s obviously a broad range. Your timeline suggests stock heavy but your inability to save more suggests a conservative approach. The variable here is that you have no space in your budget to absorb financial shocks. If you need to draw...
by EthanAllen
Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 25 years to retirement; assume 0 future contributions
Replies: 21
Views: 2719

Re: 25 years to retirement; assume 0 future contributions

re "renting so no debt"... Technically correct but inadequate characterization --unless living in car and tent there IS an ongoing permanent obligation for roof overhead $$s, though not "debt". Of course there will be ongoing housing costs, but the rent is captured in the expens...
by EthanAllen
Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 25 years to retirement; assume 0 future contributions
Replies: 21
Views: 2719

Re: 25 years to retirement; assume 0 future contributions

How much do you want to have each year in retirement? Take that amount and then divide by .03 as 3% is generally considered a safe withdrawal rate. The number you get is how much you need on the day that you retire in today’s dollars. Divide that by 1,000,000 to get the compounded rate of return th...
by EthanAllen
Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 25 years to retirement; assume 0 future contributions
Replies: 21
Views: 2719

25 years to retirement; assume 0 future contributions

Would welcome thoughts on the following atypical scenario (and I know it requires making a number of assumptions, but please bear with me as a hypothetical exercise): - couple in late 30s; husband works; wife will be homemaker - assume a hypothetical $1 million in net assets between his and her reti...
by EthanAllen
Sat Jul 06, 2019 3:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Invest $2-3M now and how? Index vs self made stock portfolio? How's my Portfolio?
Replies: 111
Views: 8005

Re: Invest $2-3M now and how? Index vs self made stock portfolio? How's my Portfolio?

Choosing not to buy stocks one expects to underperform doesn't have to mean they are expected to go down in value. Yes, fair enough, although I was trying to make a broader point about an inability to pick winners and losers. I think the OP’s mindset is what causes a lot of people to lose their shi...
by EthanAllen
Sat Jul 06, 2019 2:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Invest $2-3M now and how? Index vs self made stock portfolio? How's my Portfolio?
Replies: 111
Views: 8005

Re: Invest $2-3M now and how? Index vs self made stock portfolio? How's my Portfolio?

P.S. if the OP was really good at picking stock market losers, then why eliminate those from your portfolio? Just short the losers and make countless times more money! Put differently, if you aren’t willing to put your money where your mouth is by shorting the stocks you are convinced are losers, yo...
by EthanAllen
Sat Jul 06, 2019 2:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Invest $2-3M now and how? Index vs self made stock portfolio? How's my Portfolio?
Replies: 111
Views: 8005

Re: Invest $2-3M now and how? Index vs self made stock portfolio? How's my Portfolio?

OP:

Here is just one of the critical flaws in your reasoning—even if by some miracle you were great at picking stock market losers (hint: you’re not)—your chosen trading strategy would STILL be a terrible idea for all the reasons mentioned in this thread.
by EthanAllen
Thu Jul 04, 2019 5:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What percentage of total portfolio in REIT's do you have? Why? . . Why not?
Replies: 239
Views: 21843

Re: What percentage of total portfolio in REIT's do you have? Why? . . Why not?

5% of portfolio in domestic REIT ETF. Why? Cause I don’t own any real estate right now and convinced myself I was light on real estate exposure/diversification.
by EthanAllen
Mon Jul 01, 2019 9:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What financial statements do you retain and why?
Replies: 1
Views: 403

What financial statements do you retain and why?

Curious what people do. TYPES: Do you retain credit card statements? Bank statements? Brokerage/Investment account statements? DURATION: Keep them for how long? Going back how far? FORMAT: Hard copy? Electronic? What is best practice these days? Security needs would suggest not having statements lyi...
by EthanAllen
Sat Jun 15, 2019 7:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Compound interest for 10% interest rate?
Replies: 29
Views: 4020

Re: Compound interest for 10% interest rate?

OP:

You may want to look up exchange rate risk. That is not nearly the deal you think it is...
by EthanAllen
Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to preserve $10M+ in wealth owned by unsophisticated people?
Replies: 82
Views: 15940

Re: How to preserve $10M+ in wealth owned by unsophisticated people?

dknightd wrote: Wed Jun 12, 2019 12:52 pm OP perhaps invite your mother, and wife, and kids to join the Bogleheads online community.There is much to be learned here.
Well, one thing they may learn is how naive and unsophisticated OP thinks they are...
by EthanAllen
Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?
Replies: 302
Views: 22131

Re: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?

international001 wrote: Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:32 am I see lots of people talking about the personal lifestyle and market driven forces

But nobody is considering one of the great advantages of buying. It's very easy to obtain a mortgage.
Depending on economic climate, that’s as much of a bug as a feature.