Search found 31 matches

by blacksmith4
Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active/Macro-Responsive Fund For Tracking
Replies: 18
Views: 610

Re: Active/Macro-Responsive Fund For Tracking

And I’ll also keep an eye on PAEAX. One last note. If you look at PAEAX's website you will find they are using a custom index which is: The Russell 3000 Index is an unmanaged index of the 3,000 largest U.S. companies. The Putnam Growth Blended Benchmark is a benchmark administered by Putnam Managem...
by blacksmith4
Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active/Macro-Responsive Fund For Tracking
Replies: 18
Views: 610

Re: Active/Macro-Responsive Fund For Tracking

Perfect thanks. I’ll just get a friend with Bloomberg to pull ten names on Bloomberg and then I’ll track once a year or so. And I’ll also keep an eye on PAEAX. I’m less interested in owning any of these funds but to run sort of an experiment to convince myself personally that these guys are clowns/n...
by blacksmith4
Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lawsuit suggests MIT allowed Fidelity to pack retirement plans with high-fee funds
Replies: 54
Views: 4948

Re: Lawsuit suggests MIT allowed Fidelity to pack retirement plans with high-fee funds

401ks are expensive because people sue them. It's a horrible law that benefits lawyers and TPAs.
by blacksmith4
Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active/Macro-Responsive Fund For Tracking
Replies: 18
Views: 610

Re: Active/Macro-Responsive Fund For Tracking

I'll add that it just seems crazy to me to conclude that there is "shrinking alpha" when we are at all time highs. Why do say that? Alpha is the ability to generate returns above the market rate. If the market falls by 20% and your fund only drops by 15%, your portfolio manager has generated a alph...
by blacksmith4
Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active/Macro-Responsive Fund For Tracking
Replies: 18
Views: 610

Re: Active/Macro-Responsive Fund For Tracking

That's fine, one fund isn't sufficient -- you're right. What is the actual list of funds that you are basing that "50%" number on? I am using the SPIVA report card. That is the source of the “80% of active funds underperform their respective indices”. When SPIVA begins to move (75%...70%...65%...),...
by blacksmith4
Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active/Macro-Responsive Fund For Tracking
Replies: 18
Views: 610

Re: Active/Macro-Responsive Fund For Tracking

I'll add that it just seems crazy to me to conclude that there is "shrinking alpha" when we are at all time highs.
by blacksmith4
Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active/Macro-Responsive Fund For Tracking
Replies: 18
Views: 610

Re: Active/Macro-Responsive Fund For Tracking

For background, I was a stock-picker in my younger days. I have said that I will go back to stock picking when just 50% of actively managed mutual funds can match their respective indices (currently 80% underperform). That will be my indication that there are so many indexers that readily accessibl...
by blacksmith4
Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12414
Views: 2145156

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

abuss368 wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:05 pm
Fear sells newspapers and news! Tune it out.
i think most of the clickbait is along the lines of, "inverted yield curve actually doesn't even mean anything!"
by blacksmith4
Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active/Macro-Responsive Fund For Tracking
Replies: 18
Views: 610

Active/Macro-Responsive Fund For Tracking

Hello: This forum overwhelmingly advocates not to "time to market based on macroeconomic indicators" based on the premise that it is a "historically inferior strategy" to the strategy that advocates "buying/holding/rebalancing index funds based on an asset allocation that corresponds with your age a...
by blacksmith4
Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Trust Allocation Help
Replies: 9
Views: 777

Re: Trust Allocation Help

Hello: I've determined that the trust should be much more conservative than originally planned. The beneficiary is very averse to stocks, in general. However, there's desire to make zero distributions for at least five years and use this time to grow the corpus at like 4% a year. The problem is that...
by blacksmith4
Sun Mar 03, 2019 8:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When does the power of compounding interest really kick in?
Replies: 67
Views: 9341

Re: When does the power of compounding interest really kick in?

If you double your initial investment, you earn exactly twice the amount of interest over a given time period. You do not get an exponential benefit at any particular level of investment and the growth rate doesn’t magically increase.
by blacksmith4
Sun Mar 03, 2019 7:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When does the power of compounding interest really kick in?
Replies: 67
Views: 9341

Re: When does the power of compounding interest really kick in?

Compound interest “magic” or “power” is a bunch of hooey. If you invest $10k pre-tax and delay a 40% tax burden till the withdrawal, you don’t get anything extra than if you invested $6,000 post-tax over that same time period. It’s simple multiplication and the growth has a linear relationship with ...
by blacksmith4
Sun Mar 03, 2019 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Market Always Goes Up” defense without past performance
Replies: 143
Views: 9738

Re: “Market Always Goes Up” defense without past performance

I really enjoyed everyone’s input here and learned a lot. Thank you very much.
by blacksmith4
Sun Mar 03, 2019 4:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Looking to switch my banking. Any suggestions?
Replies: 10
Views: 1028

Re: Looking to switch my banking. Any suggestions?

Sofi has 2.25% interest on checking, six free atm withdrawals a month, mobile deposits app with $25k daily max (much higher than others), free financial advisors, commission free stock trading, and a zero fee robo-advisor that uses vanguard.
by blacksmith4
Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Market Always Goes Up” defense without past performance
Replies: 143
Views: 9738

Re: “Market Always Goes Up” defense without past performance

Just a reminder, the U.S. have not been always the most largest, wealthiest, most powerful economic force in the world buoyed by the most powerful military. Every great nation rises and falls. We just don't live long enough to witness the whole process. This is another good point. The mantra of “do...
by blacksmith4
Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Market Always Goes Up” defense without past performance
Replies: 143
Views: 9738

Re: “Market Always Goes Up” defense without past performance

Perhaps my question then is best asked as: how can we be confident that we haven’t already overbought the Total Stock fund? Is it because that if that were so, we’d expect much smarter and bigger investors to have sold it off and we are riding their coattails? Is that really a reasonable presumptio...
by blacksmith4
Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Market Always Goes Up” defense without past performance
Replies: 143
Views: 9738

Re: “Market Always Goes Up” defense without past performance

Just a reminder, the U.S. have not been always the most largest, wealthiest, most powerful economic force in the world buoyed by the most powerful military. Every great nation rises and falls. We just don't live long enough to witness the whole process. This is another good point. The mantra of “do...
by blacksmith4
Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Market Always Goes Up” defense without past performance
Replies: 143
Views: 9738

Re: “Market Always Goes Up” defense without past performance

Because from my lay perspective, it just seems INSANE to be buying equities today when global trade is slowing I think an important recognition is at the core of your question. On one hand, we reject strategies to time the market based on past performance. On the other, we use the past performance ...
by blacksmith4
Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Market Always Goes Up” defense without past performance
Replies: 143
Views: 9738

Re: “Market Always Goes Up” defense without past performance

I think markets went up the past, and still do, because people and their companies are always learning and building and striving and overall producing more with less. That means passive investors that take market returns figure they will end up getting more and more. Markets definitely have a lot o...
by blacksmith4
Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Market Always Goes Up” defense without past performance
Replies: 143
Views: 9738

Re: “Market Always Goes Up” defense without past performance

Virtually all of the advice here seems to be based on past performance. “You should have just done Sp500 instead of tried to time the market, since that did better.” Looking at the Nikkei 255 for instance, it seems evident to me that markets do not in fact always go up. And so I’m struggling to und...
by blacksmith4
Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Market Always Goes Up” defense without past performance
Replies: 143
Views: 9738

Re: “Market Always Goes Up” defense without past performance

Is there some actual reason that US equities are so wonderful and that we should just ignore all other fundamental/economic indicators when making investment decisions? A couple of things to think about. 1) The reason that equities(not just US equities) are expected to go up over the long term is t...
by blacksmith4
Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Market Always Goes Up” defense without past performance
Replies: 143
Views: 9738

Re: “Market Always Goes Up” defense without past performance

Thesaints wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:08 pm
Assets are a lot more expensive than they were 10 years ago. Yet, if even under this dire conditions people continue to buy, just imagine how much higher will the market go when things get better.
This is how people talk before bubbles burst, right?
by blacksmith4
Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Market Always Goes Up” defense without past performance
Replies: 143
Views: 9738

Re: “Market Always Goes Up” defense without past performance

Regardless of whether or not equities are wonderful, there is a completely separate question, which is whether or not you can improve on blind buy-and-hold by explicit market timing or gentle market timing or tactical asset allocation or "opportunistic rebalancing" or buying the dips or value avera...
by blacksmith4
Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Market Always Goes Up” defense without past performance
Replies: 143
Views: 9738

Re: “Market Always Goes Up” defense without past performance

To me, the alternative to “don’t time the market, just buy equities” would be “buy equities when you feel that market conditions are favorable and the market isn’t overvalued.” In response to this proposition though, it’s my understanding that most would say, “that’s impossible. Based on past perfor...
by blacksmith4
Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Market Always Goes Up” defense without past performance
Replies: 143
Views: 9738

“Market Always Goes Up” defense without past performance

Virtually all of the advice here seems to be based on past performance. “You should have just done Sp500 instead of tried to time the market, since that did better.” Looking at the Nikkei 255 for instance, it seems evident to me that markets do not in fact always go up. And so I’m struggling to unde...
by blacksmith4
Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Recommendation for High yield cash-equivalents ?
Replies: 19
Views: 3175

Re: Recommendation for High yield cash-equivalents ?

Any reccomendations for high yield MM at Schwab? I live in CA looking for a place to stash some emergency money. All banking with local credit union and Schwab. Also interested in this. If you’re trying to put together a conservative portfolio for say, saving for a down payment 3-5 years out and wa...
by blacksmith4
Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Trust Allocation Help
Replies: 9
Views: 777

Re: Trust Allocation Help

ExitStageLeft wrote:
Wed Feb 27, 2019 9:40 pm
By the way, welcome ot the forum!

If you call the new enterprise Retirement Wingman, I want a piece of the action! :mrgreen:
Appreciate it.
So, does everyone agree that a 60/40 and 25/75 stock/bond ETF allocation make sense in Trusts A and B respectively? (53/47 in total)
by blacksmith4
Wed Feb 27, 2019 8:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Trust Allocation Help
Replies: 9
Views: 777

Re: Trust Allocation Help

How much is the beneficiary dependent on the trust money? Is it anticipated he will surely need $X every year for support or is the trust supposed to be "extras"? I think this might factor into the asset allocation. The more dependent he is on that trust money every year, I might want to be more co...
by blacksmith4
Wed Feb 27, 2019 6:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Trust Allocation Help
Replies: 9
Views: 777

Re: Trust Allocation Help

On Trust A, the more I think about this, the more I realize that it really should just be treated as if it were standard post-tax retirement money. It looks like 2025 target date funds are generally allocated as about 60/40, so I'll shoot for that. The primary difference is that this trust will be m...
by blacksmith4
Wed Feb 27, 2019 6:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Trust Allocation Help
Replies: 9
Views: 777

Trust Allocation Help

Hello: I've come into a weird situation where I am now trustee on two separate trusts for a friend. The friend is 60. The trust assets will be distributed to me and another relative after the friend dies, but I'd be more than happy to distribute all during his lifetime. I need to decide how to inves...