Bogleheads.org

marklearnsbogle wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 10:09 am Is anyone experiencing a discrepancy in the percentages in Portfolio Tester? I am trying to test a few hypothetical allocations, and not only are those percentages off, but so are percentages for my actual allocation.

Hi Mark -

I don’t use Portfolio Visualizer much because it would not change our portfolio strategy, but I noticed last week that Total Stock was in unallocated.

Perhaps Vanguard was working or updating.

Best.
Tony

I personally feel I wasted 20+ years reconciling all my accounts with Quicken. The mistakes where always on me - and not the bank/broker. I quit Quicken and never looked back. I check my checking account transactions online once or twice weekly to make sure nothing is amiss - no problems - haven't reconciled anything in 5 years or so (whenever Quicken went to a subscription model - that was my "why am I even doing this?" Moment). The only thing I have sometimes missed with Quicken is using it as a database to look up occasional history like "when did I hire that plumber to come out" but the work far exceeded the benefit for me. It was also a feeling of success for me not to have budget and track every nickel any longer....

Reconciling a checking account (i.e. balancing your checkbook) is easy. But how do you all reconcile your investment account balances? For example, do you actually verify that the total annual contribution and/or withdrawal amounts are what you expect? I don’t and stopped using Quicken over 15 years ago. For us it was so 1990s, provided no value, took too much time, and was costly. Intuit must have thought so too as they sold the product to private equity. Then private equity sold it. Microsoft stopped Money. I took the alternative approach that paid off very well. We focused on simplicity. Every time we thought we simplified, we found more to do. It is a journey and not a destination. Best. Tony What's your (current) simplified approach t...

UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 7:24 pm

Dave55 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 5:40 pm Tony, I thought you had all your $$ in S&P mini futures and Gold? Are you making drastic portfolio moves again?

Dave

I thought Tony was focusing on REITs.

I started a REIT for Dave’s Cayman Island Hedge Fund!

You gents are the best!
Tony

Dave55 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 5:40 pm Tony, I thought you had all your $$ in S&P mini futures and Gold? Are you making drastic portfolio moves again?

Dave

Priceless Dave!

Tony

Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 5:27 pm
There’s no harm in having 24 funds

Yikes! Ouch!



Jack Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success”.

Best.
Tony

“The Company You Keep” with Robert Redford on Hulu.

Really enjoyed it!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Compa ... eep_(film)

Best.
Tony

Meatballs in the AirFryer!

Best.
Tony

Wiggums wrote: ↑Sat Mar 25, 2023 7:11 am Once you retire, you will have more time to focus on your properties and your finances. In other words, I don’t see that you necessarily need to solve this problem in the next four or five years.

Valid point for sure! I would also inquire if one wants to focus on properties during retirement and finances.

Simplicity may be helpful for a retired couple and provide benefits to heirs, caretakers, and executors of estates.

Liquidity is important at all stages of an investment journey.

There may be other ways to invest in real estate and provide passive income if desired.

Best.
Tony

I stopped keeping a checkbook perhaps 15 years ago. Never even occurred to me to "reconcile" investment accounts. These days transactions happen within a day or two and you can see ones that are pending. If I want to know how much cash is in my accounts I just log in and check. I have never bounced a check or overdrawn my accounts. We read on Bogleheads an excellent way to eliminate the checkbook register. That checkbook register was bothering me for sometime as it was purely redundant! The entires in the checkbook register have dwindled over the years to only checks written. We gave up 15 years ago writing all transactions as they are essentially available online in real time and anything else is a waste of time. In addition, we...

I am not willing to go international at the percentage touted by many, but we do have a international holding of 20% of our equities. I figure 20% at our ages should give us enough breathing room should the US markets really get hammered and take time to recover. That assumes the international markets aren't being hammered at the same time. If they are, oh well. I use the Vanguard Developed Market Index ETF (VEA) because I find it preferable to investing in Total International Stock Market Index as China is avoided. Broken Man 1999 China represents approximately 8.40% of Vanguard Total International Stock Index. Best. Tony 8.40% is 8.40% more than I want of China in any index. I think Developed Market Index countries are closer to us in ma...

Rom wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 4:27 pm Reconciling a checking account (i.e. balancing your checkbook) is easy. But how do you all reconcile your investment account balances? For example, do you actually verify that the total annual contribution and/or withdrawal amounts are what you expect?

I don’t and stopped using Quicken over 15 years ago. For us it was so 1990s, provided no value, took too much time, and was costly. Intuit must have thought so too as they sold the product to private equity. Then private equity sold it. Microsoft stopped Money.

I took the alternative approach that paid off very well. We focused on simplicity. Every time we thought we simplified, we found more to do. It is a journey and not a destination.

Best.
Tony

I looked at this ETF recently again. The yield is 4.75% - 5.00%.

Paired with an S&P 500 fund that may be an excellent one two punch.

Any Bogleheads investing in this ETF?

Best.
Tony

Broken Man 1999 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 8:58 am I am not willing to go international at the percentage touted by many, but we do have a international holding of 20% of our equities.

I figure 20% at our ages should give us enough breathing room should the US markets really get hammered and take time to recover. That assumes the international markets aren't being hammered at the same time. If they are, oh well.

I use the Vanguard Developed Market Index ETF (VEA) because I find it preferable to investing in Total International Stock Market Index as China is avoided.

Broken Man 1999

China represents approximately 8.40% of Vanguard Total International Stock Index.

Best.
Tony

“What it Takes” by Steve Schwarzman of Blackstone Group.

https://www.amazon.com/What-Takes-Lesso ... C90&sr=8-1

Best.
Tony

I currently hold a traditional BH 3-fund portfolio with US total market, US bonds and international fund. But with many large US based companies gaining a large revenue share internationally (such as Amazon, GE, Apple, IMB, Walmart, etc), can there be a substitute for the widely used international fund? Can the 3rd fund be one with US based companies that gain much of their revenue from countries that don’t utilize the dollar? If so, can anyone please point me in the direction of some funds that might fit this criteria so I can research them a bit more closely? And if this idea has flaws or anyone wishes to talk me out of going down this rabbit hole, please do so also. For many years Jack Bogle touted the simplicity of a 2-Fund portfolio, ...

3939.50 Best. Tony Great decision abuss368, what a financial wiz (be sure to tell Dave) - you're #1 as of March 22, 2023 !! 8-) Boglehead Contest 2023 S&P 500 - 3/22/2023 3936.97 Entries Experts- 18 Bogleheads- 589 Pos Person Guess 1 abuss368 3,939.50 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WTEPlXb0jyL81ys21NwzmstqJxZRLOg0vj1bu9hpjYY/edit#gid=0 Thanks Miriam2 - My highly quantitative approach to stock selection by focusing on the fundamentals and charts is the key to Dave’s Cayman Island Hedge Fund success. Investments in crypto have afforded Dave’s fund a new Gulfstream! https://is2-ssl.mzstatic.com/image/thumb/Purple6/v4/13/8a/eb/138aeb52-b446-c36f-8dae-7e6f00788d9b/mzl.rhjkvfxu.png/750x750bb.jpeg

ChinchillaWhiplash wrote: ↑Wed Mar 22, 2023 5:13 pm “Buy when others are fearful”. Does it make sense to back up the truck to sector funds such as financials? Seems like a good time to get a huge discount. You might have to sit on it until it rebounds but you would do that with any holding. What would having 10-15% of portfolio in this matter as far as the downside. Could go down more. If it does just DCA into it. Is this any worse or riskier than holding something such as a REIT fund at these percentages?

Jack Bogle has often said that most investors could go their entire investment lives without the need for a sector fund.

Best.
Tony

Bogleheads: I own all of Jack Bogle's books. His first book, "Bogle on Mutual Funds," written in 1994, changed our lives. Many first printing of his books were sent to me by Jack with his personal message. All of Jack's books are excellent. My favorite is " The Little Book of Common Sense Investing. " You can read important excerpts here. On the first anniversary of his death (January 16, 2019) I began honoring Mr. Bogle by ending each of my posts with his "Words of Wisdom." Best wishes. Taylor Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: “Learn every day, but especially from the experiences of others. It's cheaper!”. Hi Taylor - You would enjoy the new book “Inside Vanguard” from Charlie Ellis: https://www.amazon.com/Inside...

Independence Day - Resurgence on Hulu.

Enjoyed it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independe ... Resurgence

Best.
Tony

What are his thoughts on the portfolio Jack Brennan discusses in his interviews and updated book “Straight Talk on Investing”? This portfolio appears to be low cost and diversified total market stock and bond funds with high dividend funds as a compliment to increase yield and provide income. Also Jack Brennan does not appear to be a fan of sector funds such as real estate. Best. Tony Thanks, Tony. I'll see if Bill has any thoughts on income investing. Best, Jon Hi Jon - Excellent. As you know real estate funds and crowdfunding are the rage the last few years. Alternative investments more accessible today. Perhaps a long period of low yield and income prompted some of these discussions. Interested in thoughts. Best. Tony

watchnerd wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2023 7:47 pm

abuss368 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2023 6:47 pm

This is an excellent post and really speaks out loud and clear. This may impact investors more than one thinks.

For some investors, the simple approach, and to avoid tinkering, may include a reduction or avoidance of investing articles, news, and website, including Bogleheads (unfortunately).

Best.
Tony

Ignorance is bliss?

The problem is the tinkering.

Not the consumption of information.

Unfortunately for some investors, the consumption of information may increase the probability of tinkering.

All investors are different.

Best.
Tony

That book is one of a kind. A true gem!

I read the original and the 10th anniversary editions.

Best.
Tony

^This I look back over 40 years and look at the several times I've done transactions based on reading something either in Bogleheads, other articles, and even Vanguard Portfolio Watch recommendations. Years later it seems like I should have just stayed ultra-simple. Over the years, reading various articles and posts have prompted me to move small chunks from core into TIPS index funds, Small Cap Value index, REIT index, Short Term Bond index, Total International Bond index, Total International Stock Index, Primecap, Global Wellington, and my stupid gambling fund, which I have divested most of, and qualifies for a Bogleheads "I told you so!" I bought maybe 10% of my portfolio in TIPs index funds more than 25 years ago after readin...

MP173 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 5:26 pm Tony:

Cant image leg pressing 1400#. I was gradually increasing increasing leg press and backed off about a month ago when the knee starting to have a bit of pain.

Actually I have taken a week off due to aches and pains...ready to resume tomorrow.

Great advise regarding eliminating the deadlifts.

Ed

Hold on to a chair or post. Body weight squats only. Can also try heel up on a book or board to shift to front quads. Do many reps. Never locks out at top. Stop short from locking out by an inch or so. Slow and steady. Quads will burn, heart will go, and lungs moving. If no leg pain this is good.

Forget squats, leg press, and deadlifts.

Tony

Tony: Cant image leg pressing 1400#. I was gradually increasing increasing leg press and backed off about a month ago when the knee starting to have a bit of pain. Actually I have taken a week off due to aches and pains...ready to resume tomorrow. Great advise regarding eliminating the deadlifts. Ed Higher reps, a lot less weight, and mind to muscle are key. I trained 5-6 days a week and competed for 30 years. Tied for best bench press at my University. Now I look back and don’t know how! My kid is playing football and into it. So I am training him. His bench went from 160 for 1 rep to 200 for 3 reps in 2.5 months. To be young again! I am teaching him how I can take 15 lb dumbbells and do 15 reps of side laterals and get a pump and burn it...

I am 67 years old and have been lifting for about 2 years with very good results...at least what my goals are. I combine with exercise bike (or street bike in warm weather). 3 days of bike, 3 days of lifting. When I need a break I take it. The result has been a loss of about 25 pounds and a restructuring of my body with increased strength. I used a simple 3/7 method. Dont see much about it, but came across it last fall. Using a load about 65% to 70% of 1x max, 3 reps are performed, rest 10 seconds, then 4 reps, rest 10 seconds, 5 reps, rest 10 seconds, 6 reps, rest 10 seconds, 7 reps, the rest 60 seconds. Add a small amount of weight...perhaps 5 pounds and repeat. Then do a 3rd set. Then move to next drill. Thus, I will do 75 reps in about...

“A Family Man” with Gerard Butler on Tubi.

Enjoyed it!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Family_Man

Best.
Tony

The “Bogleheads Live” podcast with Jon and Mike Piper!

Best.
Tony

I would agree there is a recommended range of allocations with Vanguard.

If Vanguard deviated too far from the LifeStrategy and Target funds, I would expect that could potentially blow back and give rise to questions.

Best.
Tony

Vanguard PAS advisors, which typically have the designation of CFP, must have discretion when building an investment portfolio that a client will be able to stay the course with in all markets. A portfolio that is best allocated for the clients timeframe, goals, and tolerance for risk.

I can not see Vanguard intentionally lowering the recommend range of international equity and bond allocations.

Best.
Tony

cegibbs wrote: ↑Sun Dec 25, 2022 4:49 am Berkshire Hathaway is approximately 30% of our total investable assets. Shares were first purchased in 1978.

Wow! Jack Bogle has said that no investor should own individual stocks as the risks are too great.

What happens on the day Warren Buffet decides not to come into work?

Best.
Tony

Now this is interesting!

I am curious what exactly is going on here.

Best.
Tony

Excellent thread!

Enjoy reading about the long term commitments.

Tony

Ed 2 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 16, 2023 7:18 pm Congrats! When me and my wife were 35 we had around 300k . Now we are in our 53’s and well over two milestones ( seven figures) and pushing the third . So, now, if you invest from now on like me without investing on headline news or getting emotional during market crashes and invest most of your portfolio in equity’s I bet by the time you 53 you will have well over 3 million . So, wish you remember my word’s, ignore the noise , stay the course and remember , there’s nothing guarantee long term that beats inflation as equity’s!


I didn’t look close. This is old thread. Anyway.

Hi Ed -

Excellent advice for ALL Bogleheads to consider and follow.

Thanks!
Tony

I benched pressed 450 pounds in competition.

315 for 19 reps and 225 for 29 reps.

375 for 2 reps on the Seated Shoulder Press.

Those were the days!

My goal is to bench press Dave’s Gulfstream!



Best.
Tony

Dave55 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 6:49 pm [Thread merged into here --admin LadyGeek]

"The Compound" hosted by Michael Batnick and Josh Brown in today's episode interviewed Samir Kaji who worked at SVB and Republic Bank. Very insightful.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3gMXHnFBH0

Dave

Dave recommended the podcast show to me and it appears interesting.

When Dave talks, I listen.

Best.
Tony

theplayer11 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 15, 2023 7:44 am Sorry if this has been discussed, but I opened a new brokerage account in January. Today I tried to transfer a chunk to Ally and I was getting an error that new funds could not be withdrawn. I spoke to a rep who stated
that new accounts have a 1 year lock because "Vanguard's philosophy is investing for the long term". She said they could override this "lock".
Is this a new policy? Certainly not sitting well with me.

In all my years with Vanguard, I have never heard of or experienced this. Typically when opening a new account, there is a small hold on transferring cash out of the account for a small period of time. If I recall that may be 10-30 days.

I would call Vanguard back to discuss further.

Best.
Tony

AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:31 pm

abuss368 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:26 pm

AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 5:26 pm

McDougal wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 5:22 pm Been missing JoeRetire, and his George avatar! I always glean something from his posts.

Same here. He’s mentioned being unwell - hope he’s ok.

If I heard correctly, I believe JoeRetire finally made the leap and started a Podcast show. It is available on Apple or something. He talked about it before and must have made the leap. I wish Hugh well!

Joe posted recently. He’s ok.

January 20th was the last time correct?

AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:31 pm

abuss368 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:26 pm

AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 5:26 pm

McDougal wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 5:22 pm Been missing JoeRetire, and his George avatar! I always glean something from his posts.

Same here. He’s mentioned being unwell - hope he’s ok.

If I heard correctly, I believe JoeRetire finally made the leap and started a Podcast show. It is available on Apple or something. He talked about it before and must have made the leap. I wish Hugh well!

Joe posted recently. He’s ok.

Podcast or forum?

AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 5:26 pm

McDougal wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 5:22 pm Been missing JoeRetire, and his George avatar! I always glean something from his posts.

Same here. He’s mentioned being unwell - hope he’s ok.

If I heard correctly, I believe JoeRetire finally made the leap and started a Podcast show. It is available on Apple or something. He talked about it before and must have made the leap. I wish Hugh well!

Well, I'm 100% US with 2.5 years to go until retirement. I've been US forever, initially due to ignorance, and most recently deliberately. I'm finally 100% indexed - the two-fund portfolio. At this stage of the game, do I take the next step and add international, or just stay the course? Perhaps the diversification maybe more important during retirement as less human capital is available to make up for 10 or 15 years of underperformance. Hi Blue456 - This is a very real risk indeed. Vince (Vineviz) has provided a graph that showed an investor retiring during a long period of US underperformance. May have been the 1970’s or 1980’s. When accounting for the returns over this period and drawdown, the result was the retiree had depleted their p...

retired@50 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 10, 2023 5:28 pm
Helping improve the financial lives of people from all walks of life is why I post in this forum. To me, it's volunteer work, via the internet.

I'm happy to have been a tiny part of your journey. Best to you.

Regards,

Hi retired@50 -

Very well said. I absolutely agree and enjoyed your post.

Cheers.
Tony

If this post is OK with the admin, I simply want to express my gratitude to all of my fellow Bogleheads here who have so incredibly tutored me through my decision to transfer my EJ account to Vanguard and self-direct my soon to be 3-Fund portfolio. The last two weeks (with lots of encouragement and hand-holding), I have learned sooo much that I did not know and have a much higher level of confidence. FYI, I have been moving through this undertaking with my bride of 58 years as a fellow student. Should I pass before her, she will be fully aware to take over this lazy portfolio. Transfer is underway, have determined our initial allocation, have chosen the 3 funds (and MM), and now await the selling and buying. Could/nor would have made this ...

I just finished the new book Inside Vanguard by Charles Ellis. Just thought I’d share three thoughts from the book. 1. As much as we Bogleheads look up to Jack Bogle, it’s probably good that he stepped down as Vanguard’s CEO when he did. Vanguard needed to change, and needed a new leader to drive that change (particularly by investing more in IT). 2. I now understand why the financial advisor Allan Roth recently said that of all the brokerages, he trusts Vanguard the most. (It has to do with the culture that Jack and subsequent leaders embedded in Vanguard). 3. With $8 trillion assets under management, every 1 basis point = $800 million per year that Vanguard can use to fund its operations and drive improvements. I enjoyed the book, but I ...

What are his thoughts on the portfolio Jack Brennan discusses in his interviews and updated book “Straight Talk on Investing”?

This portfolio appears to be low cost and diversified total market stock and bond funds with high dividend funds as a compliment to increase yield and provide income.

Also Jack Brennan does not appear to be a fan of sector funds such as real estate.

Best.
Tony

What are his thoughts on private real estate investing such as Fundrise and Grant Cardone as an alternative asset class to include with a well diversified and low cost total market index fund portfolio?

These options are typically higher fees of 1.00% or more and illiquid. Do they increase the probability of achieving Alpha?

Best.
Tony

I posted this over in a different part of the forums, but I don't think it was the right spot for it. I was leasing a car and decided to buy it for roughly 31k. I did this through an auto loan via navy federal. Loan: 31k @ 6.34% for 72 months I am able to do 2-4 times the payment depending on the month. So the goal is to pay this off as fast as possible and never take a loan again. I had a random idea yesterday. I just recently became a warrant officer and this allows me to get the navy federal career starter loan. Which is 25k @ 2.99% for 60 months. Option 1: take the 25k career starter loan and apply that to my auto loan Option 2: just keep paying 2-4 times on my current auto loan. I put these both through calculators, but this is for pa...

Jack Bogle has said to NEVER invest on margin!

Your question is good and your thoughts to pay it off are sound. Can you sell securities with minimal gain (and offset with losses) and pay off?

Perhaps also pay down and eventually off with cash flow.


Best.
Tony

I posted this over in a different part of the forums, but I don't think it was the right spot for it. I was leasing a car and decided to buy it for roughly 31k. I did this through an auto loan via navy federal. Loan: 31k @ 6.34% for 72 months I am able to do 2-4 times the payment depending on the month. So the goal is to pay this off as fast as possible and never take a loan again. I had a random idea yesterday. I just recently became a warrant officer and this allows me to get the navy federal career starter loan. Which is 25k @ 2.99% for 60 months. Option 1: take the 25k career starter loan and apply that to my auto loan Option 2: just keep paying 2-4 times on my current auto loan. I put these both through calculators, but this is for pa...