Search found 187 matches

by Chicken Little
Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone else just not care/worry?
Replies: 139
Views: 9264

Re: Does anyone else just not care/worry?

Portfolio-wise, I’m not worried at all. Literally haven’t logged in to check my balance since all this started. Obviously there are other concerns, but I don’t think that’s what you were asking about Also not worried. I've been tax-loss-harvesting and thinking whether I should shift to a more conse...
by Chicken Little
Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 199
Views: 17968

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

The economy will get worse, perhaps much worse over the next few quarters. The worse it gets, the more money the Fed will print. The more money the Fed prints, the more inflation will be created. Over the past decade inflation has been “hidden” in sectors like health care, education, housing, and f...
by Chicken Little
Thu Apr 02, 2020 6:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone else just not care/worry?
Replies: 139
Views: 9264

Re: Does anyone else just not care/worry?

Perhaps jaded from previous market drops and recoveries, but this decline does not seem to stir any emotion for me. At 70, and retired for 15 years, I've seen enough that I'm comfortable with a decade (or more) of portfolio withdrawals stored in bond index funds, regardless of what level, stock ind...
by Chicken Little
Thu Apr 02, 2020 6:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 199
Views: 17968

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

the way that almost every single person on this thread is talking does not sound very promising. do all of you have very low stock percentages in your AA? is anyone holding 70-80% right now and plunging through "holding the course" this doesnt sound like a boglehead thread to me right now What's bo...
by Chicken Little
Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Online / Gun Dealer Recommendations
Replies: 68
Views: 5197

Re: Online / Gun Dealer Recommendations

I don't qualify so no personal experience, but I understand CZ has some great discounts for military/LEO/first responders. Be careful if you go that route though. Many people who get one CZ end up with a bunch of them as they tend to multiply :beer I was looking at the P-09. What’s the process for ...
by Chicken Little
Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone buy Intermediate Term Treasury Bonds right now?
Replies: 34
Views: 2743

Re: Why would anyone buy Intermediate Term Treasury Bonds right now?

If you want company, MWD, I’m with you. I’m as short as I can be in regular treasuries and tips. If I wanted to boost returns, I’d buy more equity, not different bonds. Part of the reason that Japan and EU could go negative is that US wasn’t. The idea that a bond bull market can continue to -5%, -10...
by Chicken Little
Wed Apr 01, 2020 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 199
Views: 17968

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

I doubt it. But I also don't want to be out of the market the day news hits that some course of antivirals shows a marked reduction in severity and duration of symptoms. That will probably lead to a huge rally, I would guess one that is bigger than deserved. Or another massive, unanticipated, inter...
by Chicken Little
Wed Apr 01, 2020 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 199
Views: 17968

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

It's a tricky question, and then what would you even do with the information, so I'll answer it... 1. I doubt > 100K deaths are priced in. That's the governments current prediction (Is that a violation, moderators, to copy and paste the current projection from our government from a "neutral" source ...
by Chicken Little
Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MBA Warns Fed
Replies: 6
Views: 2004

Re: MBA Warns Fed

This is realllllly bad. Really really bad... They just killed the real estate economy..... This is as bad as the oil price war... WOW WOW>....... :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-oil-prices-drop-to-lowest-level-since-2002-11585570774?mod=searchresults&page=2&pos=14
by Chicken Little
Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 5261
Views: 1332972

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

'The Platform'
by Chicken Little
Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How are you going to use your stimulus money?
Replies: 213
Views: 10880

Re: How are you going to use your stimulus money?

One hand of Mini Baccarat when the money store reopens.

Half to the dealer if I win.

That should be stimulating.

Then blow the rest in food & drinks, with dollar-for-dollar in consumables/tips.
by Chicken Little
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18115
Views: 2558776

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

deleted - not helpful
by Chicken Little
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18115
Views: 2558776

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

deleted - not helpful
by Chicken Little
Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding Bond ETF Discounts
Replies: 65
Views: 3660

Re: Understanding Bond ETF Discounts

In practical terms, when liquidity issues result in these differences, is a defensive investor better off in the bond mutual fund if they are going to rotate from fixed income to equity after a sharp decline in the stock market? Would the premium of selling the bond mutual fund offset the cost of ho...
by Chicken Little
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spike in Repo Rates [Fed Overnight Repurchase agreement]
Replies: 166
Views: 17269

Re: Spike in Repo Rates [Fed Overnight Repurchase agreement]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-19/before-fed-acted-leverage-burned-hedge-funds-in-treasury-trade People contended the event back in September was insignificant. Were they wrong? If there’s a problem around here, it might be that people run around screaming “the sky isn’t falling” al...
by Chicken Little
Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it really that bad?
Replies: 96
Views: 7858

Re: Is it really that bad?

Sorry to hear that.
by Chicken Little
Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18115
Views: 2558776

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

nisiprius wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:55 pm
[Deleted by Nisi because it was a dumb remark...]
That’s setting the bar pretty high.

I don’t think I can post anymore?
by Chicken Little
Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prediction: Subprime auto loan bubble is about to burst
Replies: 16
Views: 1122

Re: Prediction: Subprime auto loan bubble is about to burst

The level of insanity of American households making insane financial decisions is beyond belief. This is just one example of a long list of debts that people have taken on that are just plain stupid. Wrong. A woman on food stamps who has zero income gets a $30,000 loan and buys a BMW. She makes no ...
by Chicken Little
Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prediction: Subprime auto loan bubble is about to burst
Replies: 16
Views: 1122

Re: Prediction: Subprime auto loan bubble is about to burst

"You can't have a recession anymore without it turning into a financial crisis."

- me
by Chicken Little
Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would the Fed buy Stocks?
Replies: 6
Views: 315

Re: Would the Fed buy Stocks?

acegolfer wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:51 am
To buy individual stocks, the Fed needs Congress approval. Currently, it's illegal.
Can they take stock as collateral without congressional approval?
by Chicken Little
Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4127
Views: 345465

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Remedial question from avid reader who is not participating. It may get to the point where I would like to join the adventurers. My understanding is that I can't buy leveraged ETFs at Vanguard, which is good, because I would want this firewalled. What brokerages do you recommend? I've seen M1, is th...
by Chicken Little
Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a single person on here that thinks Coronavirus is going to have a material impact on [earnings]
Replies: 117
Views: 9402

Re: Is there a single person on here that thinks Coronavirus is going to have a material impact on [earnings]

The question was aimed at earnings 2, 3 or more years from now, not the next two months. I think we can all agree that for some period of near term tie earnings are going to be drastically reduced. I'm not an economist, but the companies that aren't here in 2-3 years probably aren't going to earn v...
by Chicken Little
Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Have you been personally affected by supply chain problems?
Replies: 56
Views: 3690

Re: Have you been personally affected by supply chain problems?

Thorne has not fulfilled an order placed Tuesday. Sent email citing disruption.
by Chicken Little
Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $19 Trillion in Corporate Debt At Risk of Default
Replies: 167
Views: 11127

Re: $19 Trillion in Corporate Debt At Risk of Default

I was paying attention before. :beer Like I said, I'm no genius, but corporate debt has just has been a bubble screaming to be popped. I promise I'm far less of a genius than you, and I passively collected all of this information. An no lessons to be learned, by the way. Even though this was always...
by Chicken Little
Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who is continuing to buy as planned?
Replies: 119
Views: 7946

Re: Who is continuing to buy as planned?

I buy the most I ever have every two weeks. Virtually all equity.

Tactically rotating more.

Not happy about it. Resent that I have to, in fact.

Bad game we're forced to play (an no, the vast majority of us don't have alternatives).
by Chicken Little
Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $19 Trillion in Corporate Debt At Risk of Default
Replies: 167
Views: 11127

Re: $19 Trillion in Corporate Debt At Risk of Default

Another informative piece on Bondaggedon: https://www.ccn.com/corporate-debt-was-a-recession-time-bomb-coronavirus-just-lit-the-fuse/ Morgan Stanley’s Ruchi Sharma estimates that one in six U.S. companies doesn’t have the cash flow to cover its own interest payments. Such firms have been relying on...
by Chicken Little
Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?
Replies: 200
Views: 14976

Re: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?

cpumechanic wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:14 am
They have closed the schools for two weeks, my question is.. what magic is going to happen to allow them to re-open in two weeks?
+1
by Chicken Little
Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:22 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 183305

Re: Financial Impact is Not the Problem

tvubpwcisla wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:07 am
It might be starvation. All the grocery stores are out of stock on everything!
50% of American adults are obese.

They ain't starvin' any time soon.
by Chicken Little
Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?
Replies: 200
Views: 14976

Re: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?

All those crazy survivalists with six months of food stocked up were the smart ones... Prepping is a waste of time. If you really find a situation where it was needed, then eventually people with more guns than you are going to take your stuff. I get it, I get it...flatten the curve. When this is a...
by Chicken Little
Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?
Replies: 200
Views: 14976

Re: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?

I am going to bow out here, save for this last...

It's great to talk about disruption when that means a robot flipping a hamburger, or a cheaper (illegal) taxi.

The tone of the conversation changes fast when it's about your job.

(whatever you guys do, don't - don't - bring up radiology).
by Chicken Little
Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?
Replies: 200
Views: 14976

Re: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?

I suspect that the quality of online education is less than in person, but only marginally, and; 1. Why then all the poor-quality online right now? 2. Isn't accessibility >>> marginally improved quality? Currently, the problem is all the classes, which were not designed to be taught online, yet are...
by Chicken Little
Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?
Replies: 200
Views: 14976

Re: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?

onourway wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:15 am
I guess in other words, the Harvards of the world don’t want to play in the game of low price and high volume. Their dominant position is predicated on scarcity.
That's why if (when?) it ever happens, it will be called a "disruption".

(would sure "disrupt" a lot of incomes)
by Chicken Little
Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?
Replies: 200
Views: 14976

Re: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?

I suspect that the quality of online education is less than in person, but only marginally, and; 1. Why then all the poor-quality online right now? 2. Isn't accessibility >>> marginally improved quality for the world population? Imagine when a 5th generation Harvard kid has to compete against the en...
by Chicken Little
Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?
Replies: 200
Views: 14976

Re: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?

onourway wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:06 am
MIT put all of their course material online years ago, IIRC. Even a price of free didn’t make any dent in the marketplace.
Is that for a degree?

Can anybody go to MIT online for free and earn an undergraduate degree?
by Chicken Little
Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?
Replies: 200
Views: 14976

Re: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?

I hope the short run problems are patched over quickly. Lost revenue for the travel, leisure, sports, and dining businesses won’t be made up. Lost sales of durable goods probably will just be shifted. Ditto home sales. Work in the trades will probably just shift, if even that (if your toilet’s bloc...
by Chicken Little
Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Safety of Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund (VMFXX)
Replies: 20
Views: 1080

Re: How safe is Vanguard Federal MM fund (VMFXX) during these times?

JackoC wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:11 am
As mentioned, VUSXX is purely composed of T-bills.
Website says VUSXX has 13% obligations, as mentioned above. Is that correct?
by Chicken Little
Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How capable is public broadband of supporting increased usage?
Replies: 38
Views: 1920

Re: How capable is public broadband of supporting increased usage?

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:17 am
How capable is public broadband of supporting this?
I have no idea, it's a great question.
by Chicken Little
Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds falling?
Replies: 236
Views: 5235

Re: Corporate Bond Implosion?

I switched from Total Bond to Treasuries. Part of that was to reduce exposure to corporate debt. I have no idea what that will mean for the value of my portfolio later on. It might very well make it lower. It just fits my evolving asset-allocation (I have learned enough about bonds that I now prefer...
by Chicken Little
Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds and more bonds...but why?
Replies: 7
Views: 924

Re: Bonds and more bonds...but why?

Why are these up so much? I'll give LTT a stab... Long Term Treasuries (LTT) are the least correlated with stocks. Typically, when stocks drop significantly, there is turbulence in the markets, and investors rush into LTT for safety. So why not just hold swaths of LTT for fixed income? Because they...
by Chicken Little
Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Markets Truly Efficient?
Replies: 34
Views: 980

Re: Are Markets Truly Efficient?

I've found this topic to be devoid of practical value, predicated entirely on semantics, and guaranteed to engender a horribly boring debate.

Hope you have better luck than me.
by Chicken Little
Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who is doing all the selling and buying?
Replies: 12
Views: 1271

Re: Who is doing all the selling and buying?

Apparently Fidelity and Vanguard clients are buying (or rebalancing). https://www.investopedia.com/despite-a-steep-market-correction-retail-investors-have-been-buyers-of-stocks-4799479 Individual investors are leaning into Warren Buffett's famous axiom, "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be gr...
by Chicken Little
Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What does your Crystal Ball say?
Replies: 96
Views: 4664

Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Fed throwing a lot at this right now, correct? Just like yesterday.

Will be interesting to see where it ends up.
by Chicken Little
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing - Should we have seen this coming?
Replies: 67
Views: 3702

Re: Market Timing - Should we have seen this coming?

I’ll rephrase it this way...I think there’s a good chance that a lot of investors will discover that had the wrong asset allocation (just a chance, because the Fed).
by Chicken Little
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing - Should we have seen this coming?
Replies: 67
Views: 3702

Re: Market Timing - Should we have seen this coming?

Yeah, you should’ve seen it coming. 1. I saw the way it moved by following news (anyone could have). 2. I read that Hong Kong and Japan closed schools (anyone could have). So I added 1 + 2 together and got 3. 3. I posted on February 27th that schools would close here (anyone could have). Now, that d...
by Chicken Little
Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 349
Views: 27948

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Thinking about this, maybe LT bonds aren't such a terrible idea, there's nothing to say they won't bounce around at these low yields for another few years. I mean in terms of a portfolio dampener, not getting much or any real return. They were a great idea, right? I sold mine earlier this week afte...
by Chicken Little
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]
Replies: 432
Views: 272266

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]

So I ask those who have been through these downturns is this not different? Ok. No, it’s not different. We are in the middle of a financial crisis right now, that was precipitated by a virus. They are distinct things. If there wasn’t a virus, there was always going to be another financial crisis. Y...
by Chicken Little
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spike in Repo Rates [Fed Overnight Repurchase agreement]
Replies: 166
Views: 17269

Re: Spike in Repo Rates [Fed Overnight Repurchase agreement]

Everyone couldn’t wait to explain this away.

How is that doing anybody a favor?

There was underlying weakness (debt) not strength when this virus hit.
by Chicken Little
Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sell Bonds. Buy Total Market?
Replies: 45
Views: 4240

Re: Sell Bonds. Buy Total Market?

...i figure this is a 10% sale... I appreciate any input. It’s a 10% sale off a screaming new top? Futures are down another 500 points on news of the very first untraceable case in US. Hong Kong schools are closed through April and Japan just closed schools. Odds are schools are gonna close here in...