Search found 592 matches

by DonIce
Wed Jul 03, 2019 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Staying the course is so hard (support thread)
Replies: 110
Views: 11189

Re: Staying the course is so hard (support thread)

Unfortunately, while looking at rental houses, I came across some beautiful houses for sale in my town. I found one in an old beautiful neighborhood, on a beautiful southern pond. A well known house. Its stunning inside, with hand scraped wood plank floors, high ceilings, gorgeous kitchen, pool, et...
by DonIce
Wed May 22, 2019 11:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is Tesla Going To Survive?
Replies: 99
Views: 7052

Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Tesla has a LOT further to fall before it can be seen as a "cheap buy" by other companies. At $34B, it's still almost as big as Ford ($39B) and not that far behind GM ($50B). Neither of those companies could realistically afford to spend $34B.
by DonIce
Wed May 22, 2019 2:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If I Knew Then What I Know Now
Replies: 109
Views: 44969

Re: If I Knew Then What I Know Now

Great post! So much good info here. I shared this with others and wasn't quite sure about a question I was asked. If you reach 20x or 25x your expenses, can you retire at any age? So if you hit the number at age 35, are you FI - and your money should last with a 4 or 5 withdraw rate? Or does that n...
by DonIce
Tue May 21, 2019 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11767
Views: 2018960

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

It “seems” lower but mathematically it’s a random walk, a coin flip as to whether the next move is up or down. It’s better to buy at $195 after dropping from $200, but neither has any more or less risk of dropping more. The random walk is a mathematical idealization of how the markets move. It is a...
by DonIce
Tue May 21, 2019 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a FAANG ETF?
Replies: 37
Views: 3396

Re: Is there a FAANG ETF?

Hi, This might be a stupid question, but I was just curious is there an ETF that only has FAANG stocks? (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google) Thanks. I dunno why people keep lumping Netflix in here. It should obviously be replaced with Microsoft. MAGAF stocks (Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple,...
by DonIce
Tue May 21, 2019 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11767
Views: 2018960

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

There is a lot wrong with this. Good luck. Risk isn’t lower after a downturn. Waiting or reducing exposure at all time highs is a certain way to lose in the longterm. I agree that in the long term, being less invested in the stock market will lower returns. But risk definitely seems lower after a d...
by DonIce
Tue May 21, 2019 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11767
Views: 2018960

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Not true Of course it is. If the market reaches some bottom other than 0, then the lower you bought, the less % you will have lost. The chance of the US market falling another 50% when it has already fallen 50% from a peak is much lower than the market falling 50% from near an all time high. The ma...
by DonIce
Tue May 21, 2019 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11767
Views: 2018960

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

All else is certainly not equal...what’s not equal is the money you are holding, and waiting for a stock sale is out of the market. Historically it would have been better if you bought as soon as possible and not wait for a stock sale ...time in the market and not timing the market has historically...
by DonIce
Sat May 18, 2019 4:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At what NW do I have disposable income?
Replies: 85
Views: 6140

Re: At what NW do I have disposable income?

I'm unsure I agree. In this moment I would say that, until you can also meet these basic needs (shelter, food, etc.) in retirement, you do not have fully disposable income. People on this forum are often worried about poverty in their retirement. And so they live very frugally and save a lot for re...
by DonIce
Sat May 18, 2019 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market grow faster than the economy?
Replies: 28
Views: 4289

Re: Why does the stock market grow faster than the economy?

Hi all, Long time lurker here, but first time poster. I greatly enjoy the polite and constructive discussions here, very rare on the internet among anonymous people :beer ! My question: Why does the stock market grow faster than the economy? And can it last? Note that the question is not: "why does...
by DonIce
Sat May 18, 2019 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are U.S. Asset Prices So High Today?
Replies: 34
Views: 3157

Re: Why Are U.S. Asset Prices So High Today?

My sense is that when asset prices are high (due to the moderation of GDP growth, inflation and real rates), the potential for rapid meltdowns and rapid recoveries in the financial markets may be increased. It seems paradoxical that reduced levels of overall economic risk might lead to increased le...
by DonIce
Sat May 18, 2019 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are U.S. Asset Prices So High Today?
Replies: 34
Views: 3157

Re: Why Are U.S. Asset Prices So High Today?

DISCUSSION: Though unexpected risks could certainly emerge (e.g., pandemics or global environmental breakdowns), when economic growth, inflation and real interest rates become less volatile and more predictable, it seems reasonable to expect that asset prices would be high, as the overall level of ...
by DonIce
Fri May 17, 2019 11:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If you are already wealthy, what keeps you motivated?
Replies: 101
Views: 12266

Re: If you are already wealthy, what keeps you motivated?

I am not really concerned about being “wealthy”. I am more interested in what is motivating people to work when money is no longer a big factor. Pick what is important to you in life, and do that. For some people (seemingly most on this forum), the most important thing is to retire early and spend ...
by DonIce
Fri May 17, 2019 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance
Replies: 82
Views: 6630

Re: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance

How do you go about this? Do you think actual experience* is needed to reveal who we really are as investors? Yes. No one knows how they will react to a severe bear market until they've actually lived through one while having at least several years salary invested in the markets. I had like $5k in ...
by DonIce
Fri May 17, 2019 11:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I being ripped off?
Replies: 42
Views: 4911

Re: Am I being ripped off?

I might actually do it. Can you confirm there’s no good reason for the return I’m getting? Am I missing something? I asked them to clarify where this number comes from but they haven’t replied yet. I’m probably extremely naive but I simply cannot imagine they’re literally robbing me... No, they're ...
by DonIce
Fri May 17, 2019 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reporter doing story on new indexes
Replies: 13
Views: 1397

Re: Reporter doing story on new indexes

To the extent that ESG funds become popular with some portion of the population, the price of the funds (and the companies they invest in) will be bid up relative to non-ESG, lowering future expected return. However, the bidding up process may add extra return during the period of increasing popular...
by DonIce
Fri May 17, 2019 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11767
Views: 2018960

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I was often criticized for shorting TSLA, but it's the best investment I ever made. I could cover my position and buy a nice beach house right now. Hmm, not even a 50% return so far even if you had shorted at the very top (i.e. short at 360, cover today at 210, make a profit of 150 on your 360 inve...
by DonIce
Fri May 17, 2019 3:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bigger car, less economical but more safe.. Get used to smaller car over time?
Replies: 106
Views: 7442

Re: Bigger car, less economical but more safe.. Get used to smaller car over time?

As much as many safety features can be over hyped, the rear view camera has massively improved driving from parallel parking, to backing out of a spot with larger cars on each side, to lining up a trailer. That is on a short list of safety improvements everyone should have on their car going forwar...
by DonIce
Fri May 17, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bigger car, less economical but more safe.. Get used to smaller car over time?
Replies: 106
Views: 7442

Re: Bigger car, less economical but more safe.. Get used to smaller car over time?

Yes, bigger heavier cars are, in general, safer in a collision. That's just physics. Of course there is variation from one specific car to another based on their particular designs and features. Driving is by far the single riskiest activity that an average individual does on a regular basis. Car ac...
by DonIce
Thu May 16, 2019 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazon....we all have seen this before :)
Replies: 62
Views: 9091

Re: Amazon....we all have seen this before :)

A not-to-be-ignored-factor is the Founder Factor. WalMart is a classic case of a business that has struggled since its Founder died. Apple has done very well since Steve Jobs died, but it is arguable that it is not as innovative in terms of products as it was under his leadership. Microsoft certain...
by DonIce
Thu May 16, 2019 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do brokerage firms make money anymore?
Replies: 16
Views: 1797

Re: How do brokerage firms make money anymore?

I'm sure they have excellent data showing that they can make profit from the average customer through methods 1-7 as well as others. There's always people that aren't that profitable but its compensated for by others who are much more profitable.
by DonIce
Thu May 16, 2019 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Money market vs. savings account for windfall
Replies: 8
Views: 981

Re: Money market vs. savings account for windfall

I'd put it into a brokerage account so its close at hand when you do decide to invest. Within that brokerage account, pick a cash-like fund until you decide on your allocation. Money markets, short term treasuries, or short term bonds. Personally I use the ETFs MINT and JPST for short term cash. Not...
by DonIce
Thu May 16, 2019 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you reward yourself for achieving a financial goal?
Replies: 107
Views: 7015

Re: Do you reward yourself for achieving a financial goal?

I spend money on the things I think are worth spending money on as I go. So no real need to spend extra when hitting various milestones.
by DonIce
Thu May 16, 2019 1:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on business purchase
Replies: 27
Views: 1505

Re: Thoughts on business purchase

Most small business sell between a multiple of 3 and 4 - 5.5 is very high for most. I would expect a cash flow of about $800K for a business selling at 3 million. Then the financing also makes more sense. Depends on the business. If it's a retail store, restaurant, real estate, or other very low en...
by DonIce
Thu May 16, 2019 1:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you reward yourself for achieving a financial goal?
Replies: 107
Views: 7015

Re: Do you reward yourself for achieving a financial goal?

mmmodem wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 10:15 am
When we crossed 3 commas last year, I just relaxed and breathed a sigh of relief.
You could probably have relaxed with 100x less money :)
by DonIce
Thu May 16, 2019 1:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on business purchase
Replies: 27
Views: 1505

Re: Thoughts on business purchase

They are considering buying a business for a price of $3M. The business makes $550k a year. ... Is this is a bad move? Is the business too expensive? Is it worth the risk? I know a lot depends on the health of the business (TBD), but it has been around for 20+ years and manufactures specialized par...
by DonIce
Thu May 16, 2019 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We’ve won the game...but how do we stop playing?
Replies: 76
Views: 8434

Re: We’ve won the game...but how do we stop playing?

I didn't say that dying was winning. I said that you can't know that you've "won the game" (i.e. didn't run out of needed money in your lifetime) until you're life is over. Right, I got that. Personally though I'd rather be able to claim victory a little earlier and enjoy having won the game for a ...
by DonIce
Thu May 16, 2019 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We’ve won the game...but how do we stop playing?
Replies: 76
Views: 8434

Re: We’ve won the game...but how do we stop playing?

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 12:55 pm
You can't know that you've "won the game" until you're dead.
Dying seems like a poor definition of winning.
by DonIce
Thu May 16, 2019 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazon....we all have seen this before :)
Replies: 62
Views: 9091

Re: Amazon....we all have seen this before :)

Hey Gang, Thoughts on Amazon as it appears that a lot of younger people are jumping on stocks like Amazon in hopes that they hit a grand slam. The stock as of now looks rock solid to me as it has a lot of diversification and in my opinion is not a one trick pony. With that being said we have all se...
by DonIce
Thu May 16, 2019 12:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: new renter rent to be paid by insurance company
Replies: 15
Views: 1643

Re: new renter rent to be paid by insurance company

Why don't the tenants just pay you the money and the insurance company reimburse them their expenses? Isn't that how these kinds of things normally work?
by DonIce
Wed May 15, 2019 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?
Replies: 129
Views: 8638

Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Unless you moved a serious chunk of money, the impact of “buying this dip” will be nothing in the grand scheme of investing. For a forum of “ignore the noise” rationale I see a lot of folks focusing on the noise when it gets them an extra $100 but writing off when the opposite happens as “noise”. D...
by DonIce
Wed May 15, 2019 6:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If you are already wealthy, what keeps you motivated?
Replies: 101
Views: 12266

Re: If you are already wealthy, what keeps you motivated?

tomtoms wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 11:57 am
If you are already wealthy, what keeps you motivated?
Becoming even more wealthy, of course. It's the American way.
by DonIce
Wed May 15, 2019 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10,000% inflation in USA?
Replies: 19
Views: 1577

Re: 10,000% inflation in USA?

Hi bogleheads, Venezuela had 60,000% annual inflation in 2018, and is projected to suffer 1,000,000% to 10,000,000% inflation this year. I’m not making this up. This doesn’t even sound real, but it’s what I’m seeing. You can google this. And Venezuela used to be a very prosperous country before thi...
by DonIce
Wed May 15, 2019 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?
Replies: 129
Views: 8638

Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Yes, I invested my contribution for May on Monday, instead of waiting til the end of the month like I usually do. The dip wasn't big enough for anything more than that, though.
by DonIce
Tue May 14, 2019 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends almost Doubled between 2013 and now
Replies: 96
Views: 7608

Re: Dividends almost Doubled between 2013 and now

I am seeing a faster growth of rate of dividends than inflation in my portfolio. My investments may have Increased by 25% with my new contributions, so that may explain a portion of the growth. Another may be the good economy which has made companies increase their dividend rates. But that still do...
by DonIce
Tue May 14, 2019 2:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What does a retirement account look like for a young person who is risk tolerant?
Replies: 4
Views: 538

Re: What does a retirement account look like for a young person who is risk tolerant?

Just go 100% equities in your brokerage account if you want to be "more risky" than 88/12, with a split between US (VTI) and international (VXUS) to suit your preference. Personally I'd go 50/50 (some others here would argue for more US and less international). Also, personally I wouldn't keep 35k o...
by DonIce
Tue May 14, 2019 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11767
Views: 2018960

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Price is what you pay, value is what you get. If the fundamentals of the company you invested in and the economy haven't changed, then why should you care about fluctuations in the market price? The markets go up and down every day, averaging a 0.8% move every day. Over the long run though, price mo...
by DonIce
Tue May 14, 2019 1:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay myself for pilot training or invest them?
Replies: 18
Views: 1277

Re: Pay myself for pilot training or invest them?

Consider joining the air force. You get first rate training all paid for by the government, excellent career opportunities both in the military and as a civilian afterwards, and you get to fly way cooler planes than you ever could as a civilian.
by DonIce
Mon May 13, 2019 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Trend Following As Insurance
Replies: 110
Views: 5678

Re: Larry Swedroe: Trend Following As Insurance

Market timing by any other name is still market timing.
by DonIce
Fri May 10, 2019 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 278
Views: 24023

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Bitcoin is not a scam as I wrote up above. It has real value that is propped by the faith of the people that own it. I also stated that people who own bitcoin are incentivized to get others to buy it as it increases the faith and therefor increases its value. That is likely why bitcoin adopters are...
by DonIce
Fri May 10, 2019 4:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Continue working for benefit of adult children or retiring earlier?
Replies: 87
Views: 6564

Re: Continue working for benefit of adult children or retiring earlier?

At some point the bird has to leave the nest and fly on its own wings.
by DonIce
Fri May 10, 2019 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11767
Views: 2018960

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 1:14 pm
I think most enjoy the hyperbole of the title. Probably keeps people from taking it too seriously.
I especially like when this thread and the "US stocks continue to soar" thread are right beside each other in the list of threads :)

viewtopic.php?t=257573
by DonIce
Fri May 10, 2019 1:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Relationship mortgage discounts for moving a million assets
Replies: 268
Views: 26030

Re: Relationship mortgage discounts for moving a million assets

And let me just add, I'm absolutely shocked that I get these discounts. I mean, for Merrill Edge, I've paid exactly $0 in trading costs on the three trades I've made in the last year, and kept a hundred bucks in the required checking account. And they gave me a big discount. And I am going to Wells...
by DonIce
Fri May 10, 2019 1:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Relationship mortgage discounts for moving a million assets
Replies: 268
Views: 26030

Re: Relationship mortgage discounts for moving a million assets

I suppose the answer to your question depends on your personal ethics... Ethics? You're dealing with a bank and playing by the rules of the contracts and offers that they offer you. Banks have no hesitation to use the terms of contracts to their advantage and neither should individuals. If there's ...
by DonIce
Fri May 10, 2019 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11767
Views: 2018960

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

At least we get a little break from all the clowns crying "with the market at an all time high......". In my view it's still close enough to say that :) Less than 5% from the top. People were certainly saying it in April when the market was at this same level as it is now. That was less than a mont...
by DonIce
Fri May 10, 2019 12:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 278
Views: 24023

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Why Bitcoin and not the other 10,000 cryptocurrencies? Why Coke and not the other 10,000 sugar drinks anyone can make for pennies? Unless the BTC algorithm is fundamentally compromised,something that hasn't happened yet in spite of everyone trying, I don't think anything can stop Bitcoin's rise to ...
by DonIce
Thu May 09, 2019 11:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Chase You Invest for Taxable Account
Replies: 27
Views: 3502

Re: Chase You Invest for Taxable Account

I just moved my account there for the opening bonus. Seems fine so far. Free commissions. The website is a bit primitive but that's no problem for buy and hold investing.
by DonIce
Thu May 09, 2019 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 278
Views: 24023

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Am I correct that every transaction that has ever been made is stored in the blockchain? That means as more transactions occur the file keeps getting larger and larger which explains why it costs so much and takes so long to make a transaction. If it was to be used as frequently as PayPal or Visa t...
by DonIce
Thu May 09, 2019 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11767
Views: 2018960

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

the vix june 2019 contract symbol is VXK19. the K19 means June 2019 expiration. you can't ride out a loss until it gets back to zero. contracts expire and you will either be called or be debited for any shortfall if you have losers. :sharebeer You can just roll the contract to the next month/quarte...
by DonIce
Thu May 09, 2019 6:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leaving Employer to Work for Current Client?
Replies: 33
Views: 3154

Re: Leaving Employer to Work for Current Client?

Is the new job in the same city, or do you have to relocate? If you have to relocate for the job, you can always just lie and say that you need to relocate to the new city for other reasons (family, lifestyle, spouse, or whatever), and since you are moving anyway, it would be a great fit to work at ...