Search found 709 matches

by DonIce
Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Bonds in free fall
Replies: 46
Views: 4698

Re: US Bonds in free fall

Exactly. Sure they may invest in it for trading/hedging purposes but the currency rates will provide similar real returns in either case, once withdrawn in native currency. Expected return.. but reality rarely matches expectations. The US has had higher rates than Germany for the last 10 years, and...
by DonIce
Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 IRS Limits Announced for 401(k)'s etc.
Replies: 27
Views: 4190

Re: 2020 IRS Limits Announced for 401(k)'s etc.

illumination wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:20 pm
So how does it work that the 401k limit goes up $500, but the IRA limit remains unchanged?

Just curious the reasoning.
Same reasoning that has the IRA limit be almost 10x lower than the 401k limit to begin with?
by DonIce
Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1993
Views: 208642

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

With all companies in huge debt, country in debt a raise of rates to normal prices will cause bunkrupties in a big scale, they cant afford that so they offer free money. This trick will eventually end bad when inflation starts picking up. That day will come. But not today. I wonder what inflation r...
by DonIce
Fri Nov 01, 2019 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50 Year US Treasury Bond - who is taker?
Replies: 29
Views: 2681

Re: 50 Year US Treasury Bond - who is taker?

As for current expectations for future inflation, it's important to remember that almost no one in the 60s expected the severe inflation that hit in the 70s and early 80s. Same with The Great Depression and The Great Recession, massive surprises missed by the vast majority of experts and amateurs a...
by DonIce
Fri Nov 01, 2019 4:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA question
Replies: 15
Views: 1003

Re: Roth IRA question

Hi Everyone, Yesterday was a big day for me because I paid off the last of my credit card debt! I still have 38k in student loan debt that I want to start chipping away at. Now that I have completed paying off my consumer debt I want to start saving for retirement. I currently have a ROTH IRA that ...
by DonIce
Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50 Year US Treasury Bond - who is taker?
Replies: 29
Views: 2681

Re: 50 Year US Treasury Bond - who is taker?

Anyone that holds EDV, TMF, or treasury futures as a counterbalance to a lot of equities for their uncorrelation would probably benefit from a 50 year treasury, since you could hold less of it, or with less leverage, to get the desired risk weight in your portfolio. What would the duration of a 50 ...
by DonIce
Thu Oct 31, 2019 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50 Year US Treasury Bond - who is taker?
Replies: 29
Views: 2681

Re: 50 Year US Treasury Bond - who is taker?

Anyone that holds EDV, TMF, or treasury futures as a counterbalance to a lot of equities for their uncorrelation would probably benefit from a 50 year treasury, since you could hold less of it, or with less leverage, to get the desired risk weight in your portfolio.
by DonIce
Thu Oct 31, 2019 8:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Just got married] Looking for ways to cut down on my budget
Replies: 80
Views: 6438

Re: [Just got married] Looking for ways to cut down on my budget

Debt repayment is savings (it increases your net worth). Your husband is contributing probably ~$50k (after tax) to debt repayment + the 18k you listed as what you're saving in the OP. Out of your combined after tax income of ~160k, you're saving > 40%. So you're doing great, relax and enjoy life. O...
by DonIce
Wed Oct 30, 2019 1:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Go BIG or go home... [Sell employer stock?]
Replies: 19
Views: 1575

Re: Go BIG or go home... [Sell employer stock?]

You already have massive exposure to the company since that is where you have allocated your human capital. In your 40s, half or more of your total capital is human capital. Why concentrate your risk further in that same one company by also keeping a disproportionate amount of its stock?
by DonIce
Wed Oct 30, 2019 1:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1993
Views: 208642

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

But say I collect the low yield for the next 3 years, so 5 years have elapsed. In the 5th year the interest rates rise dramatically to 4% and the NAV plummets. Now, I lost money since I have been collecting the low yield but don't even have the NAV to compensate me even though the term is almost up...
by DonIce
Tue Oct 29, 2019 8:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Recovering from bad advice from advisor
Replies: 4
Views: 762

Re: Recovering from bad advice from advisor

Maybe the advice was not so terrible? Can someone who makes a good living giving advice really be so off base? Yes, they absolutely can. Plenty of people on this forum can tell you about all kinds of horror stories about advisors. Their interests are not necessarily aligned with their client's inte...
by DonIce
Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1993
Views: 208642

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Lee_WSP wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 11:12 am
Maybe we should use space ships or rockets?
Save the rockets for when the S&P500 is crossing 5000.
by DonIce
Mon Oct 28, 2019 2:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETFs / Investment strategies for 5G
Replies: 10
Views: 638

Re: ETFs / Investment strategies for 5G

You think the semiconductor , devices and service provider stocks or ETFs have 5G priced in ? Why wouldn't they be? Everyone knows 5G is coming and has been for years. The companies that work on these things are already priced assuming they will continue strong growth for decades into the future, a...
by DonIce
Sun Oct 27, 2019 3:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "More evidence that it’s really hard to ‘beat the market’ over time"
Replies: 18
Views: 2816

Re: "More evidence that it’s really hard to ‘beat the market’ over time"

Thanks for posting. This is an excellent quote from the article: "Here’s an analogy, perhaps it’s not perfect: Suppose you could be guaranteed to score in the 95th percentile on the LSAT, MCAT, GRE, or GMAT exam without studying for even one minute. Wouldn’t that be appealing to most people compare...
by DonIce
Sat Oct 26, 2019 2:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock market index investing - problem of induction?
Replies: 41
Views: 3611

Re: Stock market index investing - problem of induction?

Investing in the stock market with minimal effort and with a good probability of satisfactory return has only been something that is possible for a tiny blip of human history. Only about 150 years or so. Furthermore, there are significant counterexamples, where equity investing resulted in complete ...
by DonIce
Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me figure out why REITs are not higher % of AA
Replies: 31
Views: 2072

Re: Help me figure out why REITs are not higher % of AA

By that argument, one should hold bonds and cash at market weight too. Nobody would do that though. The total value of outstanding US bonds (treasury, corporate, and asset-backed) is about $33 trillion as far as I can quickly find on google. That puts typical 60/40 portfolios not far off from marke...
by DonIce
Tue Oct 22, 2019 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me figure out why REITs are not higher % of AA
Replies: 31
Views: 2072

Re: Help me figure out why REITs are not higher % of AA

Why aren't REITs a higher percentage of asset allocation? Easy answer: because why would you want them to be any higher than their market weight? Total stock market index funds already include REITs at their market weight, so why would you want to increase the weight of that sector? The total stock...
by DonIce
Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is principal portion of mortgage counted for savings rate purposes?
Replies: 126
Views: 6705

Re: Is principal portion of mortgage counted for savings rate purposes?

Payments towards the principal of your mortgage increase your net worth. Every $1 deposited into a savings account increases your NW by $1, and so does every $1 of principal paid on your mortgage. Therefore from the perspective of NW, it should be counted for your savings rate. But really it just se...
by DonIce
Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ok to go without health insurance?
Replies: 209
Views: 11640

Re: Ok to go without health insurance?

DiehardDoc wrote:
Tue Oct 22, 2019 11:59 am
We started with premiums of $250 per month approximately 9 years ago. Each year insurance company states so and so among your group has reached certain age and therefore premium is 12-15 % higher. When is this going to stop?
Never. It will only ever keep going up.
by DonIce
Tue Oct 22, 2019 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ok to go without health insurance?
Replies: 209
Views: 11640

Re: Ok to go without health insurance?

I think liquid assets in the mid 7 figure range is high enough that considering self-insuring is not outrageous, especially given that you now can't be prevented from getting insurance on the basis of a pre-existing conditition and you can sign up for insurance year round.
by DonIce
Mon Oct 21, 2019 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding Single vs Multi Factor ETFs
Replies: 23
Views: 894

Re: Understanding Single vs Multi Factor ETFs

Quickly checking on portfolio visualizer shows the following: QUAL has a 98% correlation with VTI. MTUM has an 87% correlation with VTI. VFMF has a 97% correlation with VTI. SLYV has a 90% correlation with VTI. IJS has an 89% correlation with VTI. In other words, you are getting almost no discernibl...
by DonIce
Mon Oct 21, 2019 1:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: High income earner waiting for a bear market to start investing
Replies: 119
Views: 12115

Re: High income earner waiting for a bear market to start investing

If you didn't go all in in late December last year, which was the best time in the last few years to buy US stocks, then you should give up on market timing. 20% or greater market declines happen on average once per 7 years, so there may not be another one any time soon. The S&P500 could easily go t...
by DonIce
Sun Oct 20, 2019 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whatever happened to the commodities miracle?
Replies: 21
Views: 2764

Re: Whatever happened to the commodities miracle?

A stock represents part ownership in a corporation whose point is to make money and eventually pay out profits to shareholders. This is an asset that should generate positive return in the long run, though there is always the risk of the company doing poorly. A bond represents a debt from a governme...
by DonIce
Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing for the "great sag" - Dalio
Replies: 65
Views: 10374

Re: Investing for the "great sag" - Dalio

I dunno. Typical markets crashes occur due to sentiment as much as anything else. It is not possible for anyone to predict whether markets will have a 20-30% correction and then rebound and continue higher, or whether they will just be flat for a few years before resuming growth. That said, it does ...
by DonIce
Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Cash basically sitting uninvested. What to do?
Replies: 46
Views: 4482

Re: Cash basically sitting uninvested. What to do?

Keenobserver wrote:
Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:30 pm
Great links. We that all being said. Is not true that there is correction on the horizon?
How far away is the horizon? A month? A year? 3 years? No one knows. There is no actionable information based on the vague sense of there being a correction at some point in the future.
by DonIce
Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Too Much Company Stock In Old 401k?
Replies: 15
Views: 934

Re: Too Much Company Stock In Old 401k?

If you had $890k right now, would you invest it $160k in XOM and $730k in mutual funds? If not, then why would you keep your existing account that way? There are no tax implications for changing allocation / rebalancing in a 401k.
by DonIce
Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Cash basically sitting uninvested. What to do?
Replies: 46
Views: 4482

Re: Cash basically sitting uninvested. What to do?

Even if a bear market hits, most likely it will recover after several years. People who invested in 2007 before the crash were doing great a couple years later, as long as they didn't sell out at the bottom. People who invested in 1999 took longer to recover (i.e. "the lost decade"), but they are st...
by DonIce
Tue Oct 15, 2019 9:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Convincing a small business employer to offer a 401k/Simple IRA
Replies: 9
Views: 702

Re: Convincing a small business employer to offer a 401k/Simple IRA

Thanks for the advice so far, very helpful! I looked at the costs from Employee Fiduciary. They list a $500 setup fee, 0.08% AUM fee, and $1500 annual fee for under 30 employees. Does that cover everything or are there other costs besides those listed? I don't mean the ERs of the funds but other exp...
by DonIce
Tue Oct 15, 2019 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Convincing a small business employer to offer a 401k/Simple IRA
Replies: 9
Views: 702

Convincing a small business employer to offer a 401k/Simple IRA

So I work at a small company of about 20-30 people. The pay and healthcare benefits are reasonable, but the company does not offer any retirement savings plan. I've asked about this a couple of times and the answer I got is that it is very expensive and time-consuming to set up, and that they think ...
by DonIce
Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do you calculate your return?
Replies: 5
Views: 598

Re: How do you calculate your return?

I am curious how you all calculate your returns. For instance: Say I deposit $100 this week into an account with $1,000 The following week my account is $1,090, is that a 9% increase or a 0.9% decrease? I track my investments weekly (I know, I like the exercise) and want to know if the deposits sho...
by DonIce
Mon Oct 14, 2019 11:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What’s the point of a taxable account?
Replies: 62
Views: 6832

Re: What’s the point of a taxable account?

Not true. There are other tax deferred investment plans available for those such as you mention. Vanguard and Fidelity offer investing in index funds via retirement variable annuity plans for those who may not have access to a employer sponsored retirement plan and want to save more than maxing out...
by DonIce
Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What’s the point of a taxable account?
Replies: 62
Views: 6832

Re: What’s the point of a taxable account?

Not everyone has access to 401k's. Unfortunately, the US tax system offers special treatment to individuals that work for some employers but not others. For those that happen to work at an employer that doesn't offer one, you can only contribute $6k per year to an IRA, which is very little. All the ...
by DonIce
Sat Oct 12, 2019 10:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What % and for how long do you have to save to replace income net ofsaving?
Replies: 17
Views: 2254

Re: What % and for how long do you have to save to replace income net ofsaving?

If you save ~20% of income for ~35 years and get a return of ~5% annualized, you'll have enough to replace ~80% of income at ~3.5% SWR.
by DonIce
Fri Oct 11, 2019 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NTSX discussion: compared to VOO
Replies: 49
Views: 2564

Re: NTSX discussion: compared to VOO

Hi columbia, Yes I see that, but I mean how should we expect the returns of 1.5x leveraged 60/40 compared to 100% S&P 500? I mean, I assume in the long run 100% S&P 500 would be expected to have higher returns than 60/40. So would 100% 1.5x leveraged 60/40 return close to 60/40 itself or 1.5x 60/40...
by DonIce
Fri Oct 11, 2019 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone buying PG&E stock?
Replies: 60
Views: 5287

Re: Anyone buying PG&E stock?

I bought etrade after it dropped ~17% when Schwab announced zero commissions a little bit ago. It's now up 10%. Buying stock after a precipitous fall can be lucrative if you have reason to believe the market over-reacted and that the company is fundamentally sound. Don't know about PG&E though.
by DonIce
Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard keeps pushing their financial advisors...why?
Replies: 93
Views: 7715

Re: Vanguard keeps pushing their financial advisors...why?

There's plenty of brokerages out there that won't push unwanted services.
by DonIce
Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity to $0 Commissions
Replies: 86
Views: 9035

Re: Fidelity to $0 Commissions

Again: one can obtain a tax benefit holding a VG mutual fund that can’t be obtained anywhere else. Those suggesting anything else are the dictionary definition of uninformed. It can be obtained in many places by holding an ETF instead of a mutual fund... Furthermore, the patent expires in a few yea...
by DonIce
Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need help !!! US or Canadian universities?
Replies: 56
Views: 3502

Re: Need help !!! US or Canadian universities?

I went to UBC in Vancouver. Great school but not on par with the very top US schools. In the end, the choice of where to go to college is up to the student, not to the parents. How much funding to provide is up to the parents, though. For example, you can say you're gonna help him with an amount tha...
by DonIce
Thu Oct 10, 2019 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Charles Schwab et al. drop commissions to zero, can we build our own index funds?
Replies: 68
Views: 7333

Re: If Charles Schwab et al. drop commissions to zero, can we build our own index funds?

You can get pretty good tracking with just 30 stocks, as illustrated by how strongly correlated the Dow is with the S&P500. You wouldn't need to hold all 500 stocks in the S&P500, and certainly not all 3500+ in TSM. Pick 50-100 representative stocks. If you did this at M1, you can auto-rebalance in ...
by DonIce
Thu Oct 10, 2019 3:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $0 commissions; so what's the best bond ETF? and why?
Replies: 20
Views: 1843

Re: $0 commissions; so what's the best bond ETF? and why?

AGG has intrinsically outperformed BND and SCHZ over the last 8 years by more than the various other factors discussed here

link
by DonIce
Wed Oct 09, 2019 2:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dilemma buying a new house
Replies: 31
Views: 2708

Re: Dilemma buying a new house

Sell first, put your stuff in storage, go on vacation somewhere til the new house is ready to move into.
by DonIce
Wed Oct 09, 2019 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Artificial Intelligence and the stock market
Replies: 65
Views: 6641

Re: Artificial Intelligence and the stock market

I read your question differently from how the others have responded. If AI is an advancement, then I would think it would help the stock market. Businesses will become more efficient. I know this is a simplistic view, but I think AI should be good for the market. I agree but I think the expected pa...
by DonIce
Tue Oct 08, 2019 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12344
Views: 2132042

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

That sounds about right, although we are currently in a 'technical' bull market because we have not experienced a 20% drop since reaching a record high. Yeah, I think that's right, but I split it up that way to illustrate that the current period could still end up being re-categorized depending on ...
by DonIce
Tue Oct 08, 2019 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12344
Views: 2132042

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

retiringwhen wrote:
Tue Oct 08, 2019 3:28 pm
I am taping this to refrigerator to end quarrels at the dinner table :-)

BTW, I am pretty sure these are intra-day highs and lows, correct?
Haha, glad to help. Yes, I was using intra-day highs and lows.
by DonIce
Tue Oct 08, 2019 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12344
Views: 2132042

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Traditionally, a bear market begins with a 20% drop from the record high and does not end until a new record high is reached. The last 'correction' was a 19.9% drop, but I believe that it crossed the 20% threshold intra-day. Such arbitrary definitions are arguably completely irrelevant though. Usin...
by DonIce
Tue Oct 08, 2019 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Evaluate job offer with stock options
Replies: 10
Views: 898

Re: Evaluate job offer with stock options

I think you'll have to be a bit more specific about the details of the option offer? What is the price at which you can exercise the options? Also, if the stock is not publicly traded, it is possible that it may never be worth anything, or may be worth much less than leadership is currently projecti...
by DonIce
Mon Oct 07, 2019 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding using treasury futures for leverage to implement risk parity
Replies: 161
Views: 13833

Re: Understanding using treasury futures for leverage to implement risk parity

Yes, but the money you are investing in the 2-year future is ill-advised unless you know how interest rates will move. You are essentially 88x leveraging a terrible long term investment with a greater stdv than returns. You have to look at it from the standpoint of an overall portfolio. Treasuries ...
by DonIce
Mon Oct 07, 2019 10:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: how to divest while holding the index
Replies: 7
Views: 776

Re: how to divest while holding the index

Just short the company you don't like by the right amount. I.e. if you have $100k in an S&P500 fund and you don't like company XYZ which comprises 0.5% of the index, and their shares are trading at $50/share, then short sell 10 shares. Your net position in the company will then be 0, not an active b...
by DonIce
Mon Oct 07, 2019 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding using treasury futures for leverage to implement risk parity
Replies: 161
Views: 13833

Re: Understanding using treasury futures for leverage to implement risk parity

Thanks this makes sense but now I don't see how futures can help with leverage per the above Kessler article. If you are allocating the same amount of money ($640 margin + $215,360 Cash) how are they creating a 3.3x leveraged portfolio? The 2 yr futures plus excess cash in t bills returns 4% on ave...
by DonIce
Sun Oct 06, 2019 1:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Preferred Stock Index Fund
Replies: 49
Views: 5606

Re: Preferred Stock Index Fund

Since some posters are suggesting a diversification benefit, I went into PortfolioVisualizer and asked it for the optimum portfolio of VTSAX (total stock), VBTLX (total bond), and PFF. Yeah I did the same check on PV. Any idea if there are some funds that go back further in time than PFF that are r...