Search found 111 matches

by ososnilknarf
Fri Feb 12, 2021 3:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How best to rebalance a brokerage account
Replies: 29
Views: 2099

Re: How best to rebalance a brokerage account

I like being able to rebalance by only adjusting in one account, my 401k. For me my Roth's and traditional IRA accounts contain only equities. My 401k has both equities and bonds. To rebalance I only need to adjust in my 401k. This works for me but it may not for others depending on the balances in...
by ososnilknarf
Fri Feb 12, 2021 2:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is your favorite non fiction book?
Replies: 142
Views: 8362

Re: What is your favorite non fiction book?

I love Carl Sagan's books. Also agree with the Erik Larson recs. In addition these by David Grann are fantastic: Lost City of Z Killers of the Flower Moon The Devil and Sherlock Holmes I think Lost city of Z was made into a movie. Did you happen to watch it and was it worth watching either alone or...
by ososnilknarf
Fri Feb 12, 2021 2:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How best to rebalance a brokerage account
Replies: 29
Views: 2099

Re: How best to rebalance a brokerage account

I like being able to rebalance by only adjusting in one account, my 401k. For me my Roth's and traditional IRA accounts contain only equities. My 401k has both equities and bonds. To rebalance I only need to adjust in my 401k. This works for me but it may not for others depending on the balances in ...
by ososnilknarf
Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is your favorite non fiction book?
Replies: 142
Views: 8362

Re: What is your favorite non fiction book?

I love Carl Sagan's books. Also agree with the Erik Larson recs.

In addition these by David Grann are fantastic:
Lost City of Z
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Devil and Sherlock Holmes
by ososnilknarf
Tue Feb 09, 2021 7:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I doing the right things?
Replies: 32
Views: 3060

Re: Am I doing the right things?

Thanks for the feedback. We looped back on my Wife's 401k and upper her contribution to what felt reasonable (not leaving her with no money). She makes quite a bit less than I do so maxing out her contribution would leave her with not much coming home. We do share money and accounts, but each keep ...
by ososnilknarf
Tue Feb 09, 2021 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seeing Signs of Market Top?
Replies: 73
Views: 4629

Re: Seeing Signs of Market Top?

I don't know, but it does feel similar to the lead-up to the 2000 dot-com bubble. Not that I'm going to change anything, because I don't know when there might be a drop, and then I won't know when there will be a turn-around again. I'll rebalance if/when I need to as per my plan.
by ososnilknarf
Thu Feb 04, 2021 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whether to invest money one may need a few months later
Replies: 20
Views: 773

Re: Whether to invest money one may need a few months later

i'm curious how does not investing now money that is laying idle for 2 months reconcile with the other advice i've heard on this forum to invest any money one has as-soon-as-possible and not have it lay idle? The advice to invest money as soon as possible is never intended to apply to money that yo...
by ososnilknarf
Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Waiting Till Age 70 to Draw SS
Replies: 129
Views: 9315

Re: Waiting Till Age 70 to Draw SS

This is the post that sold me on waiting until 70:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=102609

Very simple explanation. Works for me.
by ososnilknarf
Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance Mega Thread
Replies: 10046
Views: 707661

Re: Time to refinance again this year?

I refinanced twice in 2020. $380k
June went from 3.625 => 3.375
Nov went from 3.375 => 2.625

Both times went through LenderFi. Was a very smooth process both times.
by ososnilknarf
Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mega backdoor Roth, Earnings and Taxes
Replies: 10
Views: 589

Re: Mega backdoor Roth, Earnings and Taxes

I'm pretty sure the earnings that accrue while in your after-tax 401k account are taxable, aren't they?
Can someone with actual expertise weigh in on this?
by ososnilknarf
Fri Jan 29, 2021 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I still believe in “getting rich slowly”
Replies: 91
Views: 8654

Re: I still believe in “getting rich slowly”

We have 5% of our portfolio in a funny money account. We own shares of Disney there. That’s it. So, you are also gambler, just a smaller amount. It's like putting 5% of your income towards lottery tickets and then claiming you don't buy into hype of getting rich quick because you don't spend half y...
by ososnilknarf
Fri Jan 29, 2021 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding this “short squeeze” revolution
Replies: 168
Views: 13804

Re: Understanding this “short squeeze” revolution

A lot of people are talking about how this is market manipulation and started as a pump and dump, etc. But the guy who really started it on WSB really started it as a contrarian, deep-value play that he genuinely believed in. He thought GME was grossly undervalued and posted his well thought out the...
by ososnilknarf
Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Backdoor Roth question
Replies: 6
Views: 284

Re: Backdoor Roth question

Yeah, you're good. I have the same thing. No tIRA but my wife does, and I do the backdoor Roth.
by ososnilknarf
Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buffet and the 4% Guy
Replies: 33
Views: 3674

Re: Buffet and the 4% Guy

You can say the same thing about starting at 70/30, yes. I'm not sure if "comfort" is a good thing (probably is, certainly better than being in red and feeling uncomfortable), though the idea was to let the winners run while they're ahead, instead of trimming them down by selling. Althoug...
by ososnilknarf
Mon Jan 25, 2021 3:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mega backdoor: Roth 401k vs Roth IRA
Replies: 10
Views: 930

Re: Mega backdoor: Roth 401k vs Roth IRA

With this is mind I’m debating rolling after-tax funds over to Roth IRA quarterly so I only have to verify the transfers 4x/year. This seems like the best bet considering I will saving substantially more in taxable next year and will likely want to hold bonds in the pre-tax 401k and stock in Roth a...
by ososnilknarf
Mon Jan 25, 2021 3:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mega backdoor: Roth 401k vs Roth IRA
Replies: 10
Views: 930

Re: Mega backdoor: Roth 401k vs Roth IRA

With this is mind I’m debating rolling after-tax funds over to Roth IRA quarterly so I only have to verify the transfers 4x/year. This seems like the best bet considering I will saving substantially more in taxable next year and will likely want to hold bonds in the pre-tax 401k and stock in Roth a...
by ososnilknarf
Fri Jan 22, 2021 6:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 4970
Views: 1314657

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Finishing up the The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich by William L. Shirer. Surprisingly readable for a book so jam-packed with information. Loved it! Read it few years ago in my obsession with WW2 books trying to understand the why behind the war! Very readable! +1. I enjoyed it when I read it alm...
by ososnilknarf
Thu Jan 21, 2021 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you believe in the Efficient Market Hypothesis?
Replies: 118
Views: 5823

Re: Do you believe in the Efficient Market Hypothesis?

Just think of all the ways that active management can beat the market. They can "hug the index" for 80% of their holdings, and then they can take the other 20% of what they manage and exploit any inefficiencies they see in their very best ideas in individual securities. Not to mention the...
by ososnilknarf
Thu Jan 21, 2021 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you believe in the Efficient Market Hypothesis?
Replies: 118
Views: 5823

Re: Do you believe in the Efficient Market Hypothesis?

I've read some fairly convincing arguments that there are some advantages that individual investors can have over the Wall Street institutions. Mainly regarding small-cap stocks. Basically the arguments are, as best I can recall from memory: 1) Many small caps aren't available to invest in by large ...
by ososnilknarf
Thu Jan 07, 2021 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Stocks: Is anyone else facepalming right now?
Replies: 48
Views: 4841

Re: US Stocks: Is anyone else facepalming right now?

There seems to be some disconnect out there where people are investing in stocks but shocked when they go up. Of course stocks keep going up, that's what they have been doing for over a century. That's why we invest in them in the first place. I urge you to see this meteoric rise in context of abou...
by ososnilknarf
Thu Jan 07, 2021 6:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Backdoor Roth process
Replies: 5
Views: 321

Re: Backdoor Roth process

Option #1: Simplest because you can just do the contribution and conversion once. Option #2: You'll possible get some gains if it is invested while waiting in the tIRA, but you'll pay taxes on the gains when converting. (But note that if it is invested while waiting, you'll pay taxes on the gains no...
by ososnilknarf
Wed Dec 23, 2020 2:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Mega Backdoor Roth IRA
Replies: 502
Views: 226168

Re: The Mega Backdoor Roth IRA

2) How much this will complicate my taxes? I have always used Turbo-tax. What would be the additional paperwork and/or record keeping associated with this? Is it fairly simple and straightforward? I've read several articles and the wiki but haven't seen this aspect directly addressed. It depends on...
by ososnilknarf
Sun Dec 20, 2020 5:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Mega Backdoor Roth IRA
Replies: 502
Views: 226168

Re: The Mega Backdoor Roth IRA

I am considering doing the mega-backdoor Roth. I already do backdoor Roth for my Roth IRA, and max out my 401k pre-tax (and catch-up) contributions. 1) My employer 401-k plan is through Merrill Lynch, and it looks like it supports doing this. I see that it has option for non-Roth, after-tax contribu...
by ososnilknarf
Fri Dec 18, 2020 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we even need a fund to track the market?
Replies: 105
Views: 6348

Re: Why do we even need a fund to track the market?

jarjarM wrote: Fri Dec 18, 2020 2:16 pm
Nate79 wrote: Fri Dec 18, 2020 2:13 pm So which broker allows an algorithm to interact with it, to buy and sell?
Interactive broker.
TradeKing (now Ally) did too, and I had used it to grab my daily balances and use them in some google speadsheets (which also has an API). But that was before I switched to 100% index funds.
by ososnilknarf
Thu Dec 17, 2020 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charlie Munger - next 10 years to be lower than the last 10
Replies: 147
Views: 11867

Re: Charlie Munger - next 10 years to be lower than the last 10

John Bogle, from "The Little Book of Common Sense Investing", 10th Anniversary Edition, Updated & Revised, 2017: "Both common sense and humble arithmetic tell us that we're facing an era of subdued returns in the stock market." He goes on to give an expectation of 4% real ret...
by ososnilknarf
Thu Dec 17, 2020 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I put my lump sum into stocks during these times? Or wait for the other shoe to drop?
Replies: 50
Views: 4166

Re: Should I put my lump sum into stocks during these times? Or wait for the other shoe to drop?

It's not an irrational feeling to think the market is overvalued at this date (it is overvalued). I can't help you decide if you want to wait, dollar cost average, or lump sum into the market. But, I can direct you to the most unbiased 'fair value' market measurement that I know of - the Morningsta...
by ososnilknarf
Thu Dec 10, 2020 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: What is it, in Plain English
Replies: 313
Views: 40487

Re: Bitcoin: What is it, in Plain English

Hey, thank you for the interesting and informative response. You're right I am mostly ignorant on these developments. I'm not in any way opposed to a decentralized digital currency, and I find the crypto-currency technology and concept fascinating and seems very much like a wave of the future. But m...
by ososnilknarf
Tue Dec 08, 2020 6:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bogleheads Guide to Investing Equivalent
Replies: 29
Views: 1679

Re: Bogleheads Guide to Investing Equivalent

I didn't state or insinuate that I am looking for something guaranteed or an easy winning strategy. Then what exactly are you looking for...? Exactly what I asked for... A book that is as easy to read and understand about the stock market as easy to read and understand as Boglehead's Guide to Inves...
by ososnilknarf
Tue Dec 08, 2020 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: What is it, in Plain English
Replies: 313
Views: 40487

Re: Bitcoin: What is it, in Plain English

It is likely to expect that illegal activities will decrease when Bitcoin gets accepted for usual business and more merchants are accepting it. I still don't understand how anyone thinks BitCoin will become widely adopted as currency. Who in their right mind would buy something or accept payment fo...
by ososnilknarf
Tue Dec 08, 2020 2:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bogleheads Guide to Investing Equivalent
Replies: 29
Views: 1679

Re: Bogleheads Guide to Investing Equivalent

So, I'll try to give you a a level-headed response, based on my experience: There isn't only ONE WAY to do it. I invested in individual stocks for 20 years and I did fine. It is totally possible to build a good diversified portfolio of stocks without using index funds. It is more work, and you are u...
by ososnilknarf
Wed Nov 25, 2020 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: What is it, in Plain English
Replies: 313
Views: 40487

Re: Bitcoin: What is it, in Plain English

I haven't read this whole thread, but I've seen a lot of people pointing to institutional adoption as evidence of legitimacy. I find that kind of funny here on bogleheads. There are lots of things that insitutions will take your money to invest in. That isn't an argument in favor of them being good ...
by ososnilknarf
Wed Oct 14, 2020 7:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Excellent Retirement Spending Rate, Safe Withdrawal Rate Podcast interview with Karsten Jeske (Big ERN)
Replies: 4
Views: 1099

Re: Excellent Retirement Spending Rate, Safe Withdrawal Rate Podcast interview with Karsten Jeske (Big ERN)

The problem with that approach, again, is your withdrawal amounts are going to be just as volatile as your portfolio. This also ignores the point that user longinvest (who is the primary author of the VPW) constantly stresses, that VPW is meant to be used in addition to a stable income source such ...
by ososnilknarf
Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too much S&P 500 index concentration in FAAMGs?
Replies: 67
Views: 4314

Re: Too much S&P 500 index concentration in FAAMGs?

I don't know what your asset allocation is, but say for example it is 60% S&P, then 25% of that is only 15%, divide that by the 5 top stocks (oversimplifying, I know, but ballpark) and you have about 3% in any single stock. That is not an overweight position in a single stock in my opinion. It i...
by ososnilknarf
Fri Sep 04, 2020 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dip: Selling and buying
Replies: 18
Views: 2265

Re: Dip: Selling and buying

I prefer to not get tricky trying to time the market. Just ride it out, stick to the plan, keep buying regularly. When market is down enjoy the good feeling you get when buying at a lower price. When market is up, enjoy the good feeling that your existing holdings are worth more!
by ososnilknarf
Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter
Replies: 112
Views: 8684

Re: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter

Buying 3 random stocks isn't reliably going to underperform the market. If that were true, once could short those 3 stocks, and use the proceeds to buy an S&P 500 ETF, and enjoy the reliable profits. Go ahead, show us. Grab, at random, 3 stocks in the S&P 500 and buy puts and sell calls on ...
by ososnilknarf
Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter
Replies: 112
Views: 8684

Re: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter

... What people mean by doing the opposite is unclear to me. ... Buy 3 random stocks. Most of the time I will underperform and occasionally I will do very well. What’s the inverse of this? Buy the market (which market) except for these 3 stocks? Short these three stocks? Probably the first. Most of...
by ososnilknarf
Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]
Replies: 345
Views: 19864

Re: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]

Dalbar research shows that average investor SELLS in down markets: The DALBAR study has been robustly discredited as being bogus . In addition, I'd also say that most Bogleheads are not average investors. I was 100% equities (individual stocks actually) during the 2009 crash, and lost 50% and didn'...
by ososnilknarf
Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Until What Age Would You Recommend 0% Bond Allocation?
Replies: 149
Views: 8838

Re: Until What Age Would You Recommend 0% Bond Allocation?

I'm sure it is different for everyone, but I just started including bonds when I turned 49. It wasn't until then that it started to bother me, as I would be needing the money in ~10 years or so.
by ososnilknarf
Mon Jul 13, 2020 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 604
Views: 128391

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

I worry a little about the few stocks, but it seems never to have been a problem. I wouldn't worry about that number of stocks. 60 is actually a pretty good number to achieve diversification. It takes surprisingly few to mimic the market. Indeed, I wonder what percentage of the top 60 holdings in a...
by ososnilknarf
Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investment strategy at 35
Replies: 30
Views: 2758

Re: Investment strategy at 35

Just to add a bit more explanation about companies that pay a dividend vs growth companies: Generally speaking (there are exceptions), companies that are fast growing, have lots of future prospects, will invest all of their earnings in the company, taking advantage of these growth opportunities, the...
by ososnilknarf
Tue Jun 16, 2020 5:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Morgan Stanley Says the 60/40 Portfolio Is Doomed
Replies: 107
Views: 11699

Re: 60/40 split at 70 year old?

I wouldn't personally have an issue with 60/40 at your age, but risk tolerance is a personal thing. You have to ask yourself, if the market took a 50% decline, you could lose ~30% of your capital. Could you live with that. Take a look at the Variable Percentage Withdraw method (search this board for...
by ososnilknarf
Fri May 08, 2020 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is lump sum investment option better than DCA?
Replies: 156
Views: 6203

Re: Why is lump sum investment option better than DCA?

DCA is an emotional crutch but there is no logical sense to it. So, I'd agree with this but would assert that you also have to admit that having an asset allocation including bonds is also an emotional crutch, as well as anything related to the concept of "risk tolerance". Our risk tolera...
by ososnilknarf
Fri May 08, 2020 3:47 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Thank you, moderators!
Replies: 54
Views: 4857

Re: Thank you, moderators!

+1
I quit FaceBook during the 2016 election cycle because I couldn't stand it anymore. And I've never once regretted it. Improved my life and happiness greatly. So glad I'm not seeing all of the BS on there.
by ososnilknarf
Fri May 08, 2020 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is lump sum investment option better than DCA?
Replies: 156
Views: 6203

Re: Why is lump sum investment option better than DCA?

DCA is an emotional crutch but there is no logical sense to it. So, I'd agree with this but would assert that you also have to admit that having an asset allocation including bonds is also an emotional crutch, as well as anything related to the concept of "risk tolerance". Our risk tolera...
by ososnilknarf
Fri May 08, 2020 3:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA question
Replies: 7
Views: 846

Re: Roth IRA question

You are still able to contribute to a Roth, in a round about way. You just can't have any money in a traditional IRA or it doesn't work. This is misleading. You certainly can do a Backdoor Roth with pre-tax money already in the TIRA. The hitch, though, is that since the IRS considers all the money ...
by ososnilknarf
Wed May 06, 2020 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is lump sum investment option better than DCA?
Replies: 156
Views: 6203

Re: Why is lump sum investment option better than DCA?

I disagree with those saying that it is better to lump sum because studies have shown that it has done better 66% of the time. This is like saying that stocks have outperformed bonds X% of the time, so you should ALWAYS put all of your money in stocks. We don't do that because we want to diversify t...
by ososnilknarf
Sat May 02, 2020 10:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA question
Replies: 7
Views: 846

Re: Roth IRA question

I had the same situation and then learned about the backdoor Roth IRA. You can learn about it here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Backdoor_Roth You are still able to contribute to a Roth, in a round about way. You just can't have any money in a traditional IRA or it doesn't work. I transferred all...
by ososnilknarf
Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 1113
Views: 364497

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

I've also run into situations where it's difficult to model spending like you describe using the VPW spreadsheet. It's definitely more complex, but you might want to look into the spreadsheet provided by Siamond in association with the article Early Retirement and Time Value of Money . (There's als...
by ososnilknarf
Wed Apr 22, 2020 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 1113
Views: 364497

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

longinvest, First off thank you for your reply, and thank you for all of the work that you've put into the VPW method. I'm still learning but the more I learn the more it looks like the best approach to drawing from retirement accounts. This is an indirect question about leveraged investing; that's ...
by ososnilknarf
Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 1113
Views: 364497

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

I have a question about how to handle a mortgage being paid off using the VPW spreadsheet. Sorry if this has been addressed before, but I didn't see anything about it. Say I'm retiring at 60, and have a mortgage payment of $2200/month, and it will be paid off at age 65. Is it reasonable to handle t...